Business Description
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europe (Spain, Iceland, Norway), South America (Brazil), and Australia, along with other international markets. The company's activities are strategically divided into three principal segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. Alcoa initiates its process with bauxite mining. This raw material is then refined into alumina, which is subsequently sold to customers for conversion into various industrial chemical products. Additionally, the company is involved in aluminum smelting and casting, supplying primary aluminum in forms like alloy or value-added ingots. These aluminum products cater to a diverse range of industries, including transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire manufacturing, and other industrial applications. Beyond its core metals business, Alcoa also operates hydroelectric power generation facilities. These plants generate and sell electricity into the wholesale market, serving a wide array of clients, from traders and large industrial consumers to distribution companies and other power generators. Founded in 1888, the company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It officially adopted the name Alcoa Corporation in October 2016, prior to which it was known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation.
Business History
Generated: Jun 11, 2026 3:02amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.47
Total Equity: $6.12B
Shares: 263,299,637
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $1.69B
EBITDA: $1.86B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $1.69B
Revenue: $12.74B
Revenue: $12.74B
Revenue: $12.74B
Total Equity: $6.12B
Tax Rate: -4.5%
Equity: $6.12B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $1.69B
Current Liabilities: $3.80B
Long-Term Debt: $2.44B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Total Equity: $6.12B
Shares: 263,299,637
Shares: 263,299,637
CapEx: -$618.00M
Shares: 263,299,637
Stock Price: $65.55
Net Income: $1.15B
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:03am (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $12.8B | $10.7B | $12.2B | $12.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $9.8B | $10.8B | $10.5B | $10.7B | $11.0B |
| Gross Profit | $2.6B | $1.9B | $241.0M | $1.5B | $1.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $258.0M | $236.0M | $265.0M | $332.0M | $758.0M |
| Operating Income | $2.4B | $1.7B | -$24.0M | $1.2B | $971.0M |
| Net Income | $429.0M | -$123.0M | -$651.0M | $60.0M | $1.1B |
| EBITDA | $2.1B | $1.4B | $155.0M | $1.1B | $1.9B |
| EPS | $2.30 | $-0.57 | $-3.65 | $0.28 | $4.47 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.8B | $1.4B | $944.0M | $1.1B | $1.7B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.0B | $5.3B | $4.4B | $4.9B | $5.5B |
| Total Assets | $15.0B | $14.8B | $14.2B | $14.1B | $16.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $2.5B | $2.4B |
| Total Liabilities | $8.7B | $8.2B | $8.3B | $8.9B | $9.9B |
| Total Equity | $4.7B | $5.1B | $4.3B | $5.2B | $6.1B |
| Retained Earnings | -$315.0M | -$570.0M | -$1.3B | -$1.3B | -$271.0M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 6, 2026 1:36pm (6d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $920.0M | $822.0M | $91.0M | $622.0M | $1.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$390.0M | -$480.0M | -$531.0M | -$580.0M | -$618.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $530.0M | $342.0M | -$440.0M | $42.0M | $567.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$150.0M | -$500.0M | $0 | -$15.0M | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | $314.0M | -$450.0M | -$427.0M | $187.0M | $458.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$15.5B $14.1B – $16.8B
|
$15.0B $15.0B – $15.0B
|
$14.5B $13.6B – $15.3B
|
$15.0B $14.0B – $15.7B
|
| EBITDA |
$1.6B $1.5B – $1.8B
|
$1.6B $1.6B – $1.6B
|
$1.5B $1.4B – $1.6B
|
$1.6B $1.5B – $1.7B
|
| Net Income |
$1.9B $1.4B – $2.7B
|
$2.1B $1.0B – $3.0B
|
$0 | $0 |
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:03am (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +2.6% | -16.1% | +13.8% | +4.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -26.3% | -87.5% | +521.6% | +15.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | -28.2% | -101.4% | +4,958.3% | -16.7% |
| Net Income Growth | -128.7% | -429.3% | +109.2% | +1,813.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | -30.8% | -89.1% | +601.3% | +71.5% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:03am (1d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Roberts Jackson Prince | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Roberts Carol L | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | de Oliveira Marques Roberto | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | HUGHES JAMES ALTON | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gorman Thomas Joseph | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Galovich Brian | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Fiore Pasquale | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Field Alistair | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Citrino Mary Anne | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Bevan John A | A-Award | 2,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Galovich Brian | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-04-15 | Olson Emily M. | A-Award | 8,760.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Olson Emily M. | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | A-Award | 3,884.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | A-Award | 77.00 | $59.81 | $4,605 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | F-InKind | 41.00 | $59.81 | $2,452 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | F-InKind | 2,059.00 | $59.81 | $123,149 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | A-Award | 1,463.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | A-Award | 29.00 | $59.81 | $1,734 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jones Tammi A | F-InKind | 16.00 | $59.81 | $957 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 6, 2026 1:36pm (6d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $0.10 | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-19 | 2026-06-05 |
| 2026-03-10 | $0.10 | 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-26 |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.10 | 2025-10-22 | 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-21 |
| 2025-08-12 | $0.10 | 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-28 |
| 2025-05-20 | $0.10 | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-20 | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-03-04 | $0.10 | 2025-02-20 | 2025-03-04 | 2025-03-20 |
| 2024-10-29 | $0.10 | 2024-10-16 | 2024-10-29 | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.10 | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-12 | 2024-08-29 |
| 2024-05-20 | $0.10 | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-21 | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-03-04 | $0.10 | 2024-02-22 | 2024-03-05 | 2024-03-21 |
| 2023-10-30 | $0.10 | 2023-10-18 | 2023-10-31 | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-08-07 | $0.10 | 2023-07-27 | 2023-08-08 | 2023-08-24 |
| 2023-05-15 | $0.10 | 2023-05-04 | 2023-05-16 | 2023-06-02 |
| 2023-03-06 | $0.10 | 2023-02-23 | 2023-03-07 | 2023-03-23 |
| 2022-10-31 | $0.10 | 2022-10-19 | 2022-11-01 | 2022-11-18 |
| 2022-08-08 | $0.10 | 2022-07-28 | 2022-08-09 | 2022-08-25 |
| 2022-05-16 | $0.10 | 2022-05-04 | 2022-05-17 | 2022-06-03 |
| 2022-03-07 | $0.10 | 2022-02-24 | 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-24 |
| 2021-10-28 | $0.10 | 2021-10-14 | 2021-10-29 | 2021-11-19 |
| 2016-11-02 | $0.09 | 2016-10-24 | 2016-11-04 | 2016-11-25 |
Narrative Economics
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: Q1 2026 revenue of $3.19B with $425M net income (13.3% margin) is a genuine standout against a four-quarter band of 5-8% margins, and follows Q1 2025's $548M/16.3% margin print. Both Q1s are conspicuously fat versus the surrounding quarters — that's the LME aluminum price spike and Section 232 tariff tailwind showing up, not structural margin expansion. Strip the two Q1s and you get a business doing ~6% net margins on ~$3B/quarter — i.e., roughly $700-800M annualized earnings power, not the $1.15B 2025 print. The 2025 full year benefited from a one-time gain and favorable alumina pricing; 2024 NI was $60M on nearly identical revenue ($12.18B vs $12.74B). That's the cyclicality the synthesis model is correctly flagging.
FCF tells the harder truth. $567M FCF on $1.15B reported NI is a 49% conversion ratio in what was supposedly a banner year — capex of $618M is eating most of OCF, and this is a capital-intensive smelter business where maintenance capex doesn't go away. At $17.3B market cap, that's a ~3% FCF yield at the cycle peak. EV/EBITDA of 10.6x TTM is not cheap for a commodity producer at mid-to-late cycle; historical aluminum names trade 4-6x at peaks. The 9.5% revenue CAGR is a recovery artifact off the 2023 trough ($10.71B rev, -$651M NI) — don't extrapolate it. ROIC of 6.6% TTM, at what should be near-peak earnings, is below any reasonable cost of capital for a cyclical — that's the punchline on this business model.
I largely agree with the Market Forces and Synthesis models, but I think the Narrative layer is too generous calling this "anchored" with only a 4.3% premium to DCF — any DCF on a commodity producer using TTM earnings as the base is anchoring on peak. The reverse-DCF's 60% implied FCF growth critique is the right frame: to justify $65.55, you need to believe either (a) aluminum prices step up structurally on EV/grid demand faster than Chinese supply responds, or (b) Alcoa earns peak margins through-cycle. Neither is a base case. The Pre-Flight model's "$1B+ at normalized $2,400-2,600/ton aluminum" is plausible but not bullish at this multiple — $1B normalized earnings at a 12-14x cycle multiple gets you $12-14B market cap, i.e., $45-53/share, not $65. The contrarian counter: if we're entering a genuine multi-year deficit on Western low-carbon aluminum (CBAM, IRA tax credits, Chinese export curbs), Alcoa's integrated bauxite-alumina-aluminum chain has operating leverage that compounds — and the stock recovery from $27 to $65 suggests smart money already sees this. But operating leverage cuts both ways and the Q2-Q3 2025 margins (5-7%) tell you the spot environment isn't actually that tight.
Data gaps matter here: total debt and equity are blank in the tile, which is a real problem for a capital-intensive business — I can't independently verify the balance sheet quality, and current ratio of 1.44 is adequate but not comforting given commodity price volatility. The insider data is useless (ten identical 2,532-share awards on one day = annual board grant, not signal). I dissent mildly from the synthesis's "Disconnected from Fundamentals" framing — that's overstated. The stock isn't a meme; it's a cyclical trading at a late-cycle multiple on peak earnings, which is a more mundane mistake. Fair value on through-cycle earnings of ~$700-800M at 12x is roughly $40-50/share; you'd need genuine conviction in a structural aluminum supercycle to underwrite $65+. I'd be a buyer below $45 and a seller above $70.
GPT Critique
In reviewing the raw data for Alcoa Corporation, several key elements stand out. Notably, the company's quarterly revenue has shown a pattern of volatility, with revenues peaking at $3.98 billion in Q4 2024 but declining to $3.19 billion by Q1 2026. This fluctuation is reflected in their net income margins, which have swung from as high as 16.3% to as low as 0.7% recently. The annual revenue figures reveal a similar story of inconsistency, with a pronounced recovery in 2025 (net income of $1.15 billion) after a significant loss in 2023 (net income of -$651 million). The cash flow data further illustrates this cyclical nature, with free cash flow being substantially impacted by high capital expenditures, indicative of the capital-intensive nature of Alcoa's operations.
I largely concur with Claude Opus's analysis that Alcoa is trading at a late-cycle multiple on peak earnings. Opus highlights the outsized Q1 margins as non-recurring, influenced by external factors like aluminum price spikes, and correctly points out that stripping these anomalies reveals a business with lower earnings power, closer to $700-800 million annually. The reliance on current high aluminum prices to justify the stock's valuation seems speculative, given the historical volatility and cyclical nature of commodity markets. Furthermore, Opus's observation that the company's free cash flow conversion is weak (49% on $1.15 billion net income) adds weight to the skepticism about the sustainability of current earnings levels.
However, I diverge from Opus regarding the narrative surrounding Alcoa's potential for structural growth driven by the EV transition and decarbonization efforts. While Opus views the narrative as overly optimistic, the market has shown a tendency to price in long-term demand increases from these trends. The modest 4.3% premium to DCF might suggest a slight overvaluation, but it does not entirely dismiss the potential for longer-term strategic positioning in a transitioning energy market.
A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my analyses underestimate the current market's inclination to look beyond cyclical downturns to potential future tailwinds. They could point out that the market's recovery from $27 to $65 might be more than just speculative enthusiasm, possibly reflecting a genuine strategic shift towards green aluminum. Nonetheless, without definitive evidence of sustained margin improvements or clear balance sheet strength, skepticism about Alcoa's current valuation remains justified.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Both lenses landed at -47 and they're telling the same story from different angles: Quality says this is an honest but mediocre cyclical with 38% share count creep in four years and grey-zone balance sheet — not a compounder, just a price-of-aluminum P&L. Valuation says $65.55 vs ~$63 FV gives me a 4% premium when what I need for a -47 quality cyclical is a 15-20% discount. Paying full freight for a business whose per-share value structurally drifts down via dilution is exactly the trade I don't take. No action at $65.
My playbook: zero position today, alert set at $53 and a harder alert at $48. If aluminum rolls over and AA gets dragged into the low-$50s on macro fear — not on a company-specific blowup — I start a 1% starter and scale to a 3% full position into the $45-48 zone, where I'd actually be getting paid for the cyclical risk and the dilution drag. Catalyst to flip me aggressive earlier: a clean signal management has stopped issuing equity (buyback authorization at depressed prices, insider open-market buys) combined with aluminum holding firm — that would shift the per-share math meaningfully. Catalyst to walk away entirely: another major equity-funded acquisition. Until one of those, this is a watch-list name, not a portfolio name.
Alcoa is a textbook commodity smelter: revenue oscillates in a tight $10.7B–$12.8B band while gross margin whipsaws from 21.1% (2021) to 2.3% (2023) back to 13.6% (2025), and operating margin swings from +19% to -0.2% to +7.6%. Net income flipped from +$429M to -$651M to +$1.15B inside four years — this is price-of-aluminum P&L, not a managed earner. Earnings quality on the mechanical checks looks clean (accruals -3.8%, OCF/NI 1.34x, Beneish -2.41), and FCF was positive in 4 of 5 years ($567M in 2025), so the reported numbers appear real.
The problem is per-share value. Diluted share count went from 190M (2021) to 263M (2025) — a ~38% increase in four years, or ~8.5% CAGR. With SBC only ~0.3% of revenue, this dilution is not comp-driven; it almost certainly reflects equity issuance (the 2024 Alumina Limited acquisition is the obvious candidate). Net debt of -$747M means the $1.74B cash pile is offset by borrowings, and Altman Z of 2.13 sits in the grey zone — survivable but not a fortress for a cyclical. Insider tape shows only routine A-Awards and zero open-market buys, which is neutral-to-slightly-negative for a stock whose insiders presumably know the cycle.
Net: the accounting is honest, FCF is real, but this is a capital-intensive cyclical that has materially diluted owners and earns its cost of capital only at the top of the cycle.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Confirm the 2024–2025 share count jump (178M → 263M) was driven by the Alumina Limited acquisition and quantify any residual organic issuance
- Aluminum/alumina price assumptions embedded in 2025 results — how much of the $1.15B net income is cycle vs. structural improvement
- Smelter cost-curve position vs. peers (Rusal, Rio Tinto, Norsk Hydro) — does Alcoa have a structural cost advantage or is it median?
- Energy contracts and exposure (smelting is power-intensive) — long-dated hydro/renewable PPAs vs. merchant exposure
- Pension and asset-retirement obligation balances — common hidden liabilities in legacy aluminum operations
- Capex split between maintenance and growth, and any large smelter restart/curtailment decisions pending
The e2e composite and signal-adjusted fair value both land at $62.86, while the stock prints $65.55 — a ~4% premium. That's not rich enough to short and not cheap enough to buy; it's the market correctly pricing a mid-to-late cycle aluminum producer with clean books but mediocre per-share economics. The Quality lens (score -47, share count creep, grey-zone balance sheet) argues the deserved multiple should be at the LOW end of the fair-value band, not the high end, so I'd anchor deserved value closer to $60 than $63.
What's priced in: continued firm aluminum prices, no China demand air-pocket, and the EV/grid/aerospace tailwind narrative holding. That's a reasonable base case but it's the BULL case being treated as base — typical for cyclicals near the top of the band. For a commodity producer you want to buy at a visible discount to mid-cycle FV, not a premium. There is no margin of safety here against a cycle turn, and earnings-quality is high (no haircut needed), so the FV number is trustworthy — the issue is purely price vs that FV.
Net: fairly valued bordering on slightly rich. I need a meaningful pullback before this is interesting on valuation alone.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Mid-cycle realized aluminum price assumption embedded in the $62.86 FV
- Forward share-count guidance and any buyback authorizations to offset dilution
- Segment EBITDA bridge (Alumina vs Aluminum) for sustainable run-rate margin
- Net debt trajectory and any pension/environmental liability one-offs
- Management commentary on China supply discipline and tariff impacts