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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 93% complete · +6 refreshed

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation

BAH NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Consulting Services
McLean, VA 22102, United States IPO 2010 boozallen.com Updated Jun 7, 2:13pm
Price
$79.48
Market Cap
$9.5B
Employees
35,900
Beta
0.32
Avg Volume
1,790,215
CEO
Horacio D. Rozanski
Business Description

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation provides management and technology consulting, analytics, engineering, digital solutions, mission operations, and cyber services to governments, corporations, and not-for-profit organizations in the United States and internationally. The company offers consulting solutions for various domains, business strategies, human capital, and operations. It also provides analytics services, which focuses on delivering transformational solutions in the areas of artificial intelligence, such as machine learning and deep learning; data science, such as data engineering and predictive modeling; automation and decision analytics; and quantum computing. In addition, the company designs, develops, and implements solutions built on contemporary methodologies and modern architectures; delivers engineering services and solutions to define, develop, implement, sustain, and modernize complex physical systems; and provides cyber risk management solutions, such as prevention, detection, and cost effectiveness. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation was founded in 1914 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 4:34pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:32pm (5d ago)
$79.48
-0.53 (-0.66%)
Day Range
$78.52 – $80.96
52-Week Range
$68.84 – $120.05
50-Day MA
$78.76
200-Day MA
$87.83
Volume
1,532,974.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $80.00
Consensus $89.50
High $110.00
(41 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 119,746,130.00
Float 118,255,291.00
Free Float 98.8%
High free float — 98.8% of shares trade freely, ~1.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:36pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:36pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:34pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
11.30
Stock Price: $79.48
EPS (Diluted): 6.91
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
8.70
Stock Price: $79.48
Total Equity: $1.11B
Shares: 123,239,436
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.67
Market Cap: $9.52B
Total Debt: $3.98B
Cash: $728.00M
EBITDA: $1.26B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$13.0B
Market Cap: $9.52B
Total Debt: $3.98B
Cash: $728.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
20.9%
Gross Profit: $2.35B
Revenue: $11.22B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
9.8%
Operating Income: $1.09B
Revenue: $11.22B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
7.6%
Net Income: $851.00M
Revenue: $11.22B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
81.0%
Net Income: $851.00M
Total Equity: $1.11B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
17.6%
Operating Income: $1.09B
Tax Rate: 1.3%
Equity: $1.11B
Total Debt: $3.98B
Cash: $728.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.78
Current Assets: $2.96B
Current Liabilities: $1.66B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
3.60
Short-Term Debt: $62.00M
Long-Term Debt: $3.92B
Total Debt: $3.98B
Total Equity: $1.11B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$91.02
Revenue: $11.22B
Shares: 123,239,436
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$8.97
Total Equity: $1.11B
Shares: 123,239,436
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.72
Operating CF: $1.04B
CapEx: -$90.00M
Shares: 123,239,436
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.9%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $79.48
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $851.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:34pm
Compares BAH against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:36:37 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:36pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $8.4B $9.3B $10.7B $12.0B $11.2B
Cost of Revenue $3.9B $4.3B $4.9B $5.4B $8.9B
Gross Profit $4.5B $5.0B $5.7B $6.6B $2.3B
Operating Expenses $3.8B $4.5B $4.7B $5.2B $1.3B
Operating Income $685.2M $446.8M $1.0B $1.4B $1.1B
Net Income $466.7M $271.8M $605.7M $935.0M $851.0M
EBITDA $820.0M $650.2M $1.2B $1.6B $1.3B
EPS $3.46 $2.04 $4.61 $7.28 $6.91
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:32pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $695.9M $404.9M $554.0M $885.0M $728.0M
Total Current Assets $2.4B $2.3B $2.7B $3.3B $3.0B
Total Assets $6.0B $6.6B $6.6B $7.3B $7.4B
Current Liabilities $1.5B $1.9B $1.7B $1.8B $1.7B
Long-Term Debt $2.7B $2.8B $3.4B $3.9B $3.9B
Total Liabilities $5.0B $5.6B $5.5B $6.3B $6.3B
Total Equity $1.0B $992.0M $1.0B $1.0B $1.1B
Retained Earnings $2.0B $2.1B $2.4B $3.1B $3.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:36pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $736.5M $602.8M $258.8M $1.0B $1.0B
Capital Expenditure -$80.0M -$76.1M -$66.7M -$98.0M -$90.0M
Free Cash Flow $656.6M $526.7M $192.1M $911.0M $951.0M
Acquisitions (net) -$780.3M -$387.0M $0 -$83.0M $22.0M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$418.9M -$224.0M -$404.0M -$812.0M -$598.0M
Net Change in Cash -$295.0M -$291.0M $149.4M $331.0M -$157.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:32pm (5d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $11.3B
$11.3B – $11.3B
$11.4B
$11.2B – $11.5B
$11.8B
$11.6B – $12.0B
$12.3B
$12.3B – $12.3B
EBITDA $1.8B
$1.8B – $1.8B
$1.8B
$1.7B – $1.8B
$1.8B
$1.8B – $1.9B
$1.9B
$1.9B – $1.9B
Net Income $750.1M
$742.7M – $757.5M
$775.5M
$742.5M – $808.4M
$844.6M
$816.4M – $872.9M
$923.8M
$876.9M – $970.7M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:36pm (5d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +10.7% +15.2% +12.4% -6.4%
Gross Profit Growth +11.0% +15.9% +14.3% -64.3%
Operating Income Growth -34.8% +126.8% +35.2% -20.1%
Net Income Growth -41.8% +122.9% +54.4% -9.0%
EBITDA Growth -20.7% +84.6% +31.1% -20.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:34pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-01 Nolan Ryan 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Petty Joshua A-Award 3,004.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Metzfield Dennis A-Award 1,642.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Lahr Troy A-Award 37,543.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Lahr Troy A-Award 10,012.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Inserra Andrea A-Award 6,508.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 ANDERSON KRISTINE A-Award 20,023.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Pfeifer Thomas A-Award 8,010.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Fitzgerald Buffum Shannon A-Award 4,005.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 ROZANSKI HORACIO A-Award 58,266.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Fitzgerald Buffum Shannon 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Fitzgerald Buffum Shannon 19,359.00 $74.59 $1.4M
2026-05-20 Fitzgerald Buffum Shannon 6,446.00 $148.44 $956,844
2026-05-20 Petty Joshua 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Petty Joshua 2,139.00 $41.28 $88,298
2026-05-20 Petty Joshua 9,353.00 $109.81 $1.0M
2026-05-19 ANDERSON KRISTINE A-Award 21,036.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 ANDERSON KRISTINE F-InKind 9,929.00 $77.00 $764,533
2026-05-19 Inserra Andrea A-Award 2,880.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Inserra Andrea F-InKind 867.00 $77.00 $66,759
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:32pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-10 $0.59 2026-05-20 2026-06-10 2026-06-26
2026-02-13 $0.59 2026-01-23 2026-02-13 2026-03-02
2025-11-14 $0.55 2025-10-24 2025-11-14 2025-12-02
2025-08-14 $0.55 2025-07-25 2025-08-14 2025-08-29
2025-06-11 $0.55 2025-05-23 2025-06-11 2025-06-27
2025-02-14 $0.55 2025-01-31 2025-02-14 2025-03-04
2024-11-15 $0.51 2024-10-25 2024-11-15 2024-12-04
2024-08-14 $0.51 2024-07-26 2024-08-14 2024-08-30
2024-06-13 $0.51 2024-05-24 2024-06-13 2024-06-28
2024-02-09 $0.51 2024-01-26 2024-02-12 2024-03-01
2023-11-14 $0.47 2023-10-25 2023-11-15 2023-12-04
2023-08-14 $0.47 2023-07-28 2023-08-15 2023-08-31
2023-06-14 $0.47 2023-05-26 2023-06-15 2023-06-30
2023-02-09 $0.47 2023-01-27 2023-02-10 2023-03-01
2022-11-14 $0.43 2022-10-28 2022-11-15 2022-12-02
2022-08-12 $0.43 2022-07-29 2022-08-15 2022-08-31
2022-06-14 $0.43 2022-05-20 2022-06-15 2022-06-30
2022-02-10 $0.43 2022-01-28 2022-02-11 2022-03-02
2021-11-12 $0.37 2021-10-29 2021-11-15 2021-12-02
2021-08-13 $0.37 2021-07-27 2021-08-16 2021-08-31
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BAH.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 17:09:24
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — nibble now, scale on weakness 6/10
Solid government-services compounder trading ~9% below skeptical fair value — own a starter, but the real swing comes below $70.
The cruxWhether the FY26 gross-margin reset is a benign reclassification or a real economic crack determines if $87 deserved value holds — or if $70 is the right anchor.
Company Quality
+1
Solid
edge √Σ 116 · risk √Σ 114 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
+23
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 56 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

Quality lens gave me a +1 'Solid' read and value lens a +23 'Modestly Cheap' — those are consistent, not conflicting: a disciplined, cash-generative federal franchise that's shrinking the float and trades at a single-digit discount to what it deserves. That combination earns a position, not a pound-the-table buy. I'm putting on a starter — roughly a third of my intended full weight — at $79 to anchor in and force me to do the filing work on the FY26 gross-margin print, which is the single line item that could re-rate this either direction.

My playbook from here is mechanical. Add another third in the $70-72 zone, where the discount to my $87 skeptical FV widens past 20% and starts genuinely paying me for the $3.3B net debt on single-customer cash flows. Go to full weight below $68 if the weakness is budget-cycle noise rather than a contract-award air pocket. On the upside, I do nothing into $90-95 and trim into anything north of $100 — the composite $102 FV is leaning on margin assumptions I don't yet trust. What flips me off the name entirely: confirmation the FY26 GM reset reflects real economics (not reclassification), or a visible federal contracting air pocket showing up in book-to-bill. Until then this is a 'own it small, let price do the work' situation.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+1 Solid edge √Σ 116 · risk √Σ 114 · conf 7/10

Booz Allen is a mature, self-funding services business: revenue scaled from $8.36B (FY22) to $11.22B (FY26), FCF averages ~$650M+ and hit $951M in FY26, and management is a net buyer of its own stock (diluted shares fell from 134.9M to 123.2M, a -2.2% CAGR, with buyback/SBC at 602%). Earnings quality looks broadly clean — OCF/NI of 1.31x, negative accruals (-1.6% of assets), and Altman Z of 3.81 — though Beneish M at -1.76 is a hair past the threshold and worth a look given the FY26 anomalies.

The biggest analytical wrinkle is the FY26 gross-margin print: 20.9% versus 53–55% in every prior year, while operating margin held at 9.8% and net income stayed at $851M. That is almost certainly a reclassification (e.g., reimbursable/billable expenses moving from SG&A into COGS, common in govt consulting reporting changes) rather than a true margin collapse — operating margin and FCF would not be intact otherwise — but I can't confirm without the filing. Revenue also dipped from $11.98B to $11.22B, the first decline in the window, which alongside heavy federal-government exposure (DoD/intel) raises real questions about post-DOGE-era budget pressure.

Balance sheet is the constraint: net debt of ~$3.26B against $728M cash means this is not a fortress — it's a levered cash compounder reliant on stable federal contracting cash flows. Insider activity is mostly routine awards; the one P-coded buy ($2.0M by Fitzgerald Buffum) is modestly positive but not a dominant signal.

Strengths 4
m70
Genuine per-share value concentration
Diluted shares declined from 134.9M to 123.2M (-2.2% CAGR) with buybacks running 6x SBC — management is consistently shrinking the float rather than diluting holders.
m65
Cash conversion is real
FY26 FCF of $951M exceeds net income of $851M; OCF/NI 1.31x and accruals -1.6% of assets indicate reported earnings are backed by cash, not accrual buildup.
m55
Operating margin expansion through FY25
Op margin climbed from 8.2% (FY22) to 11.4% (FY25) on revenue growth from $8.36B to $11.98B — evidence of operating leverage in the core govt-services model before the FY26 softening.
m35
Altman Z 3.81 (safe zone)
Despite the leverage, composite solvency screen sits comfortably in the safe band, consistent with predictable contracted revenue.
Concerns 5
m70
Net debt $3.26B vs $728M cash
Net cash is negative ~$3.3B against a business whose cash flows depend on federal budget cycles; balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion, and limits flexibility if contract awards slow.
m60
FY26 revenue declined for the first time
Revenue slipped from $11.98B (FY25) to $11.22B (FY26), breaking a multi-year growth streak — given near-total exposure to U.S. federal/defense/intel clients, this likely reflects budget/contract headwinds worth understanding.
m55
Unexplained FY26 gross margin collapse
GM% dropped from 54.8% to 20.9% in a single year while op margin held — strongly suggests a cost reclassification or accounting change rather than economics, but it's unverified and the Beneish M-score (-1.76, flagged) sits right at the threshold.
m30
FY24 FCF dip to $192M
FCF dropped to $192M in FY24 vs $526M prior and $911M after, indicating working-capital volatility typical of contract billing cycles — not alarming but a reminder cash flow isn't perfectly smooth.
m25
Customer concentration risk (inferred)
As a govt-services consultant, single-customer (U.S. federal) exposure is structural; not visible in numbers but a durability factor.
This is a solid, disciplined operator — not elite, not fragile. The cash generation is real, the buybacks are real, and per-share value is being concentrated, which I respect. But I'm not calling it a fortress: $3.3B net debt on a single-customer (U.S. government) cash flow stream is meaningful operating leverage, and the FY26 revenue dip plus the bizarre gross-margin reset are exactly the kind of things that get hand-waved away in summaries and turn out to matter. My base case is that the GM% drop is an accounting reclassification (op margin and FCF held), in which case quality is genuinely Solid-to-Strong. If it isn't, this rerates to Mixed quickly. Insider activity is largely cosmetic awards — the one open-market buy is encouraging but small. Net: a well-run mature compounder with real constraints, worth owning if you trust the federal services moat and verify the FY26 line-item story.
Verify before trusting this (7)
  • Reason for FY26 gross margin dropping from 54.8% to 20.9% — almost certainly a cost reclassification (reimbursables into COGS) but confirm in 10-K MD&A and segment notes
  • Federal government revenue concentration and exposure to DoD/intelligence community budget pressure
  • Drivers of FY26 revenue decline: contract losses, DOGE-related cuts, or timing of awards
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants on the $3.26B net debt position
  • Backlog (funded vs unfunded) trend and book-to-bill ratio
  • Beneish M-score components — whether the -1.76 reading is driven by the same line-item reclassification flagged in gross margin
  • Pending litigation/DOJ matters that have historically affected federal contractors
+23 Modestly Cheap edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 56 · conf 6/10
Price $79.48 vs signal-adjusted deserved ~$87, ~9% discount — modestly cheap, not a screaming buy. attractive below $70.00

The e2e composite FV of $102 and EPV floor of $102 imply ~29% upside, but those numbers lean on stable margins and a clean re-rate — exactly what the FY26 gross-margin reset and federal budget noise call into question. The signal-adjusted FV of $86.64 is the more defensible anchor, putting the gap at roughly 9% above the $79.48 price. That's a margin of safety, not a fat pitch.

What's priced in: the market appears to be discounting government-budget risk, federal hiring/headcount pressure, and the FY26 margin reset, while still crediting BAH for durable cash flow and buybacks. To justify materially higher prices, you need confidence the margin reset is one-time and that AI/analytics work re-accelerates organic growth — neither is confirmed. To justify materially lower, you'd need an actual federal contracting air pocket.

Net: a solid business at a modest discount to deserved value. Cheap enough to own, not cheap enough to thump the table. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut needed there; the leverage ($3.3B net debt on a single-customer cash stream) is the reason I don't extend the deserved multiple further.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Signal-adjusted FV ~9% above price
Signal-adjusted fair value of $86.64 vs $79.48 spot implies a ~9% discount on the more skeptical of the two FV reads.
m45
EPV floor well above price
EPV of $101.97 — a no-growth steady-state read — sits ~28% above the current price, suggesting limited downside if growth merely treads water.
m35
High earnings quality, no haircut warranted
Earnings-quality score of 2 (high) means FCF and reported earnings can be largely trusted, so deserved value isn't impaired by accruals or one-offs.
Rich / priced-in 3
m40
FY26 margin reset clouds deserved multiple
The jarring gross-margin reset flagged by the quality lens means the $102 composite FV likely embeds margin assumptions that may not hold — the gap could be narrower than headline.
m30
Leverage on single-customer cash flow
$3.3B net debt on a 70%+ U.S. government revenue base reduces the deserved multiple vs an unlevered peer; supports using signal-adjusted FV not composite.
m25
Composite FV looks generous
DCF at $102.55 and EPV at $101.97 converging suggests both methods are pulling on similar steady-state assumptions; a true skeptic FV is closer to $85-90.
Modestly cheap, not a fat pitch. At $79 I'm getting roughly a 9% discount to what I think the business deserves on skeptical numbers, and a bigger discount on the EPV floor — that's enough to own but not enough to size up. The $102 composite FV is doing too much work on assumed steady margins given the FY26 reset, so I anchor on ~$87. I'd get genuinely interested below $70, where the margin of safety widens to ~20%+ and starts compensating for the leverage and single-customer concentration.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY26 gross-margin reset — one-time mix shift or structural step-down?
  • Organic revenue growth ex-acquisitions and the federal headcount/hiring trajectory
  • Backlog book-to-bill and any concentration in delayed/at-risk programs
  • Capital allocation pace — buyback authorization remaining vs debt paydown priorities
  • Updated management guidance on AI/analytics revenue contribution and associated talent cost
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16