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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 5, 2026
7 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

Bill.com Holdings, Inc.

BILL NYSE Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
San Jose, CA 95002, United States IPO 2019 bill.com Updated Jun 5, 12:50pm
Price
$35.23
Market Cap
$3.5B
Employees
2,187
Beta
1.18
Avg Volume
2,281,684
CEO
Rene A. Lacerte
Business Description

Bill.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based software that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back-office financial operations for small and midsize businesses worldwide. The company provides software-as-a-service, cloud-based payments, and spend management products, which allow users to automate accounts payable and accounts receivable transactions, as well as enable users to connect with their suppliers and/or customers to do business, eliminate expense reports, manage cash flows, and improve office efficiency. It also offers onboarding implementation support, and ongoing support and training services. The company serves accounting firms, financial institutions, and software companies. Bill.com Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 5, 2026 12:53pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:50pm (7d ago)
$35.23
-0.73 (-2.03%)
Day Range
$34.93 – $37.00
52-Week Range
$34.35 – $57.21
50-Day MA
$38.04
200-Day MA
$46.00
Volume
950,659.49
Analyst Price Targets
Low $42.00
Consensus $52.67
High $77.00
(71 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 99,596,700.00
Float 88,865,180.00
Free Float 89.2%
High free float — 89.2% of shares trade freely, ~10.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:57pm (7d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 8:11pm (11d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 5, 2026 12:52pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
21,706.37
Stock Price: $35.23
EPS (Diluted): 0.23
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.22
Stock Price: $35.23
Total Equity: $3.91B
Shares: 103,912,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
32.29
Market Cap: $3.51B
Total Debt: $1.71B
Cash: $1.14B
EBITDA: $138.42M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.4B
Market Cap: $3.51B
Total Debt: $1.71B
Cash: $1.14B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
81.4%
Gross Profit: $1.19B
Revenue: $1.46B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-5.5%
Operating Income: -$80.60M
Revenue: $1.46B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
1.6%
Net Income: $23.80M
Revenue: $1.46B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
0.0%
Net Income: $23.80M
Total Equity: $3.91B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
0.0%
Operating Income: -$80.60M
Tax Rate: 21.7%
Equity: $3.91B
Total Debt: $1.71B
Cash: $1.14B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.58
Current Assets: $7.24B
Current Liabilities: $4.59B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.44
Short-Term Debt: $213.43M
Long-Term Debt: $1.50B
Total Debt: $1.71B
Total Equity: $3.91B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$14.08
Revenue: $1.46B
Shares: 103,912,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$37.67
Total Equity: $3.91B
Shares: 103,912,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.98
Operating CF: $350.64M
CapEx: -$40.97M
Shares: 103,912,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $35.23
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $23.80M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 5, 2026 12:52pm
Compares BILL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 5, 2026 12:56:31 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 8:11pm (11d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $238.3M $642.0M $1.1B $1.3B $1.5B
Cost of Revenue $61.8M $145.0M $194.0M $234.6M $272.1M
Gross Profit $176.5M $497.0M $864.5M $1.1B $1.2B
Operating Expenses $290.4M $813.8M $1.2B $1.2B $1.3B
Operating Income -$114.0M -$316.8M -$295.8M -$174.2M -$80.6M
Net Income -$98.7M -$326.4M -$223.7M -$28.9M $23.8M
EBITDA -$100.2M -$225.2M -$102.5M $96.0M $138.4M
EPS $-1.19 $-3.21 $-2.11 $-0.27 $0.23
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 8:04pm (11d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $509.6M $1.6B $1.6B $985.9M $1.1B
Total Current Assets $3.6B $6.3B $6.7B $6.3B $7.2B
Total Assets $6.0B $9.3B $9.6B $9.2B $10.1B
Current Liabilities $2.3B $3.4B $3.8B $4.1B $4.6B
Long-Term Debt $989.4M $1.7B $1.7B $914.0M $1.5B
Total Liabilities $3.4B $5.2B $5.6B $5.0B $6.1B
Total Equity $2.5B $4.0B $4.1B $4.1B $3.9B
Retained Earnings -$247.5M -$544.8M -$856.2M -$1.1B -$1.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 8:11pm (11d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $4.6M -$18.1M $187.8M $278.8M $350.6M
Capital Expenditure -$21.2M -$15.6M -$31.2M -$20.9M -$41.0M
Free Cash Flow -$16.6M -$33.7M $156.6M $257.9M $309.7M
Acquisitions (net) -$556.1M -$144.3M -$28.9M $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$87.6M -$211.9M -$430.0M
Net Change in Cash $217.3M $1.7B $682.1M -$873.4M $199.5M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:50pm (7d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $1.9B
$1.8B – $1.9B
$2.1B
$2.1B – $2.1B
$2.7B
$2.6B – $2.8B
$3.2B
$3.1B – $3.3B
EBITDA $968.0M
$941.8M – $988.9M
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
$1.4B
$1.4B – $1.5B
$1.7B
$1.6B – $1.7B
Net Income $349.9M
$296.8M – $403.1M
$471.1M
$371.5M – $570.7M
$602.5M
$580.3M – $623.0M
$770.0M
$741.7M – $796.2M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 8:11pm (11d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +169.4% +64.9% +21.9% +13.4%
Gross Profit Growth +181.6% +74.0% +22.1% +12.8%
Operating Income Growth -178.0% +6.6% +41.1% +53.7%
Net Income Growth -230.6% +31.4% +87.1% +182.4%
EBITDA Growth -124.8% +54.5% +193.6% +44.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:56pm (7d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-28 Cieri Michael M-Exempt 51,591.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 6,660.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 24,626.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. F-InKind 15,922.00 $34.85 $554,882
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 8,309.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 7,300.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Cieri Michael M-Exempt 51,591.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Cieri Michael F-InKind 18,716.00 $34.85 $652,253
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 6,660.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-29 Cieri Michael S-Sale 5,600.00 $35.68 $199,834
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 3,658.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Lacerte Rene A. M-Exempt 5,359.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-29 Cieri Michael S-Sale 23,775.00 $36.80 $874,982
2026-05-29 Cieri Michael S-Sale 3,500.00 $37.10 $129,847
2026-05-28 Moss Kenneth A M-Exempt 1,982.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Moss Kenneth A M-Exempt 23,347.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Moss Kenneth A F-InKind 12,889.00 $34.85 $449,182
2026-05-28 Moss Kenneth A M-Exempt 8,374.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Moss Kenneth A M-Exempt 3,561.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Moss Kenneth A M-Exempt 11,412.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BILL.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-05 12:57:10
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued at $35 — fair value $42–48 on 4.0–4.5x EV/S; starter position justified, but size small until Q4 FY26

The raw numbers tell a more interesting story than the synthesis credits. Revenue went $343.7M → $358.5M → $362.6M → $358.2M → $383.3M → $395.7M → $414.7M → $406.6M — that's a sequential dip in the most recent quarter, and YoY growth has compressed to ~12% in Q1 FY26 from ~18% earlier in the trajectory. Full-year FY25 revenue of $1.46B on FY24 $1.29B is 13.2% growth, well below the headline 17.6% CAGR which is backloaded by the 2021–2023 hypergrowth phase. More telling: net income went *negative* for four straight quarters (Q3 FY25 through Q2 FY26) before snapping to +$12.8M last quarter. The 9.3% margin in Dec-2024 was almost certainly tax/one-time inflated — strip it out and BILL is a barely-breakeven business on GAAP, propped up by $309.7M FCF that is heavily SBC-financed (the M-Exempt insider grants are a tell). The 81% gross margin is real; the operating leverage thesis is not yet proven.

Where I disagree with the prior models: the "high_growth_profitable" archetype is wrong — this is a decelerating-growth, GAAP-marginal company, and the rule-based classifier's own 0.5 confidence concedes it. Pre-Flight's "pre-profit-platform" is closer to truth. Market Forces calling this "structural competitive displacement disguised as cyclical slowdown" is the most provocative claim and probably overstated — 13% revenue growth with 81% gross margins isn't displacement, it's SMB-cycle sensitivity plus the deliberate de-emphasis of float revenue as rates normalize. But Market Forces is directionally right that the profitability improvement is partly retreat: BILL has cut S&M intensity, which props up margins but caps the growth re-acceleration the bull thesis needs. The Synthesis's "High Conviction Required" verdict is intellectually honest but operationally useless — it's a punt.

The contrarian read worth taking seriously: at $3.51B market cap against $309.7M FCF, BILL trades at ~11x FCF. That's cheap for any SaaS business with 81% gross margins and double-digit growth, *if* FCF is real. The catch is that SBC likely runs $250–300M annually (typical for BILL historically), so FCF ex-SBC is closer to breakeven — meaning the 11x multiple is illusory and the EV/Revenue of 3.7x is the honest anchor. At 3.7x EV/S for a 13% grower decelerating toward 10%, BILL is priced roughly in line with mature SaaS comps (Paycom, Paylocity trade 4–6x but grow faster). The de-rating from $57 to $35 has already absorbed most of the disappointment. Insider activity is neutral-to-mildly-negative (option exercises with F-InKind tax withholding, one small open-market sale) — not a signal either way at this scale.

I dissent partially from the synthesis. "High Conviction Required" implies the stock is fairly priced for a narrow scenario; I think it's modestly *undervalued* for a wider scenario. The bear case (Intuit/Stripe displacement, SMB churn) requires growth to crater below 8%, which isn't visible in the data — Q3 FY26 still printed +13% YoY. The bull case (platform monopoly) requires re-acceleration that also isn't visible. The base case — 10–13% revenue growth, GAAP margins drifting to 5–10% by FY27, FCF ex-SBC turning genuinely positive — supports a fair value around $42–48, or 4.0–4.5x EV/S. The data is thin on two fronts the models underweight: (1) the float-revenue tailwind/headwind from rate changes isn't broken out, and (2) the SBC drag on true FCF needs sharper accounting than FMP provides. Watch the next print for sequential revenue (>$415M would break the deceleration narrative) and GAAP operating margin trend. The Market Forces "value trap absent acquisition catalyst" framing is too dark — BILL is a credible take-out target for Intuit or a PE roll-up at $45–55, which puts a soft floor under the stock.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-05 12:57:20
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's "modestly undervalued" call — the current price reflects justified skepticism about Bill.com's ability to accelerate growth and sustain profitability. Fair value remains closer to $35-37 given competitive pressures and the need for clearer operational execution.

Bill.com Holdings, Inc. presents a complex narrative as it transitions from a high-growth phase to a more stable, albeit challenged, growth trajectory. The company has shown a consistent increase in revenue from $238.3M in 2021 to $1.46B in 2025, marking a notable 17.6% CAGR. However, the sequential revenue dip in the most recent quarter to $406.6M from $414.7M is concerning and hints at potential growth deceleration. Despite its impressive gross margin of 81%, the company's net income margins have fluctuated significantly, recently stabilizing at a modest 3.1% after several quarters of losses. This inconsistency suggests that while Bill.com has achieved some degree of profitability, its financial health remains precarious, and its high P/E ratio reflects an earnings base that is still too small to justify its valuation under traditional metrics.

I disagree with Opus's assertion that Bill.com is modestly undervalued at $35, pegging fair value at $42–48. Opus points to a potential upside based on a 4.0–4.5x EV/S valuation, which seems optimistic given the company's current performance and market dynamics. The narrative of Bill.com as a "pre-profit-platform" resonates more accurately given its marginal GAAP profitability and reliance on stock-based compensation, which inflates its free cash flow. The competitive landscape, notably from players like Stripe and Intuit, poses a substantial risk that could cap Bill.com's growth potential and justify the current market skepticism.

I agree with Opus that the "high_growth_profitable" archetype is misleading. The company's decelerating growth rate and reliance on cost-cutting rather than operational excellence to achieve profitability paint a picture of a business under competitive pressure. The claim that Bill.com is experiencing "structural competitive displacement" is somewhat overstated; however, the reality of increased competition and SMB cycle sensitivity cannot be ignored. Opus's critique of the "High Conviction Required" verdict as a non-committal stance is valid; the scenario requires careful scrutiny of upcoming financial results to validate any bullish outlook.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating the potential for Bill.com to leverage its platform into a more entrenched position within its niche. They might point to the company's robust gross margins and the potential for operational leverage as it scales. However, until there is clear evidence of sustainable growth beyond the current 10-13% range and genuine GAAP profitability independent of SBC, the stock remains a speculative play.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-05 18:18:30
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Real business that's finally working, but at $36 the price already knows it — no margin of safety, so I wait.
The cruxWhether I get a chance to buy in the high-$20s before SBC bends lower and share count keeps shrinking — price discipline is the entire edge here.
Company Quality
+21
Mixed
edge √Σ 125 · risk √Σ 105 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-31
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 74 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a coherent story: quality at +21 (Mixed, but improving) says this is a real, self-funding SaaS platform with a fortress balance sheet and genuine operating leverage — not a great business yet, but graduating. Value at -31 (Fairly Valued) says the market already knows. That combination is not a buy; it's a watchlist name. I'm not paying full freight for a 13%-growth business that still bleeds 16.6% of revenue in SBC and dilutes me ~5.8% a year, even with the encouraging 2025 share-count tick down. There's no gap to press and no catalyst forcing my hand.

My play: zero starter today at $36. I set a scaled buy plan beginning at $28 (1/3 position), adding at $24 (another 1/3), and reserving the last third for sub-$21 or a clean print showing SBC dropping below ~12% of revenue with continued net share retirement. Full position target is modest — 1.5-2% of book max, because even at a good price this is a good-not-great business with Intuit/Xero breathing on the moat. What flips me aggressive: a tape-driven flush to the mid-$20s, or fundamental evidence that the 2025 buyback-outpacing-SBC dynamic is durable. What keeps me on the sidelines: this exact price with growth still decelerating. The quality lens earned the right to a position; the value lens hasn't given me the entry. I wait.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+21 Mixed edge √Σ 125 · risk √Σ 105 · conf 7/10

The business itself is on a clear improvement arc: revenue scaled from $238M (2021) to $1.46B (2025), gross margin expanded from 74% to a steady ~81%, and operating margin compressed losses from -47.8% to -5.5% with the first GAAP net income ($23.8M) in 2025. FCF has gone from -$17M to $310M in four years — that is real operating leverage, not an accounting artifact (OCF/NI 0.85x and accruals -3.2% are clean, Beneish M -2.68 shows no manipulation flags). Liquidity is a non-issue: $2.32B liquid, $606M net cash, and self-funding. The Altman Z of 0.57 is a false positive — the model misreads asset-light software, not a distress signal.

The quality drag is per-share economics. Diluted shares grew from 82.8M to ~106M (5.8% CAGR), SBC runs 16.6% of revenue (~$242M), and buybacks recapture only 68% of that — so reported FCF overstates owner cash by a meaningful chunk. Share count finally ticked down in 2025 (106.1M→103.9M), which is encouraging but not yet a trend. Insider tape is benign-to-mildly-negative: pure option-exercise-and-sell mechanics (~$1.2M in 12 months), no open-market buys, no conviction signal either way.

Durability is plausible — AP automation with embedded payments has network effects and switching costs — but the data alone doesn't prove a moat; growth is decelerating (170%→65%→22%→13%) and that deceleration matters for the durability read.

Strengths 4
m80
Fortress balance sheet
$2.32B liquid, $606M net cash, 66% of market cap in cash, and $310M FCF — survival risk is zero and the business self-funds.
m75
Real operating leverage
Revenue 6x'd ($238M→$1.46B) while op margin went from -47.8% to -5.5% and FCF from -$17M to $310M; gross margin expanded to a stable ~81%.
m55
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 0.85x, accruals -3.2% of assets, Beneish M -2.68 — no signs of accounting games; cash generation is real.
m25
Share count finally declining
Diluted shares ticked from 106.1M (2024) to 103.9M (2025) — first real net retirement, suggesting buyback may be starting to outpace SBC.
Concerns 4
m70
SBC-heavy comp model
SBC at 16.6% of revenue (~$242M) is a real cost masked in 'adjusted' metrics; the GAAP profit inflection is largely SBC-funded.
m60
Per-share dilution drag
Diluted shares grew 82.8M→~106M (5.8% CAGR), and buybacks recover only 68% of SBC — owners get less of each dollar of FCF growth than headline numbers suggest.
m45
Decelerating growth
Revenue growth 170%→65%→22%→13% — the durability/moat case weakens if growth keeps fading at this rate while SBC stays elevated.
m20
Mild insider selling, no buys
$1.2M of sells over 12 months from option exercises, zero open-market purchases; not alarming, not confidence-inspiring.
This is a real business that has graduated from cash-burning growth story to a self-funding, GAAP-profitable platform with a genuinely strong balance sheet — the operational execution from 2021 to 2025 is impressive. But it's not yet a great business. Sixteen percent of revenue going out the door as stock comp, 5.8% annual share creep, and buybacks that don't even cover the dilution mean owners are funding the growth with their ownership. The 2025 share-count decline is the first sign that's flipping. Call it a solid operator graduating toward quality — not a fortress, not fragile, genuinely mixed with the arrow pointing up.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Customer concentration and take-rate trends in the payments/float revenue line — is the margin expansion driven by interest float that could reverse?
  • Net revenue retention and active customer counts to confirm the moat narrative behind decelerating growth
  • SBC trajectory in the 10-K — is the 16.6% trending down as the company scales, or structurally sticky?
  • Buyback authorization size and pace post-2025 to confirm dilution is genuinely reversing
  • Any convertible notes or off-balance-sheet float liabilities that could re-introduce dilution risk
-31 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 74 · conf 6/10
Price $35 vs deserved ~$33-38 once you haircut for 5.8% dilution and mixed earnings quality — essentially fair, no actionable gap. attractive below $28.00

BILL is a real SaaS business that has reached GAAP profitability with a fortress balance sheet, but the per-share economics are taxed by 16.6% SBC and ~5.8% annual share-count creep. That dilution drag means the equity-holder's deserved value is materially below the enterprise-value story the bulls tell. The e2e synthesis flagged 'High Conviction Required' — i.e. no clean fair value print — which itself is a signal that the price is in the zone of reasonable rather than obviously wrong.

At $35.23 and ~$3.5B market cap, the market is paying a moderate platform multiple for a mid-teens grower with credible network effects in SMB AP/AR but unresolved competitive pressure from Intuit/Xero. To justify today's price you need durable double-digit revenue growth, continued FCF expansion, AND for dilution to taper — heroic but not absurd. There's no margin of safety here, but there's also no clear overpayment. This is the textbook 'fairly valued good-not-great business the market already understands.'

Cheap signals 2
m35
Sentiment de-rating from 2021 peak
BILL has collapsed from >$300 to $35, and now trades at a far more reasonable EV/sales for a profitable, FCF-generating platform — the speculative premium is gone.
m25
Fortress balance sheet underpins downside
Net cash position and GAAP profitability mean enterprise value is lower than market cap suggests, providing a floor that limits how 'rich' the stock can be called.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
Dilution silently raises the true price
5.8% annual share creep and 16.6% SBC mean the per-share deserved value is 10-15% below the enterprise-level fair value most DCFs spit out. The $35 headline price is effectively closer to $38-40 on a dilution-adjusted basis.
m40
Platform-monopoly narrative is in the price
The bull case requires BILL to become the SMB finance OS against Intuit and Xero — a contested outcome already partially embedded at current multiples, leaving little room for execution slips.
m30
No clean fair-value signal
The e2e synthesis flagged 'High Conviction Required' — when methods don't converge, the honest read is the price is roughly in equilibrium, not a bargain.
Fairly valued. I don't see a gap worth pressing here — the price has come down enough to remove the 2021 speculative premium, but the dilution tax and unresolved competitive setup mean I'm not paying $35 for a margin of safety. I'd want this in the high-$20s before it gets interesting, and I'd want to see SBC bending lower. At today's price it's a hold-or-pass for a valuation-driven buyer; the edge, if there is one, belongs to the quality lens, not me.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward revenue growth guidance — is it stabilizing in the mid-teens or decelerating toward 10%?
  • Take-rate trends on payment volume — the real monetization lever
  • SBC trajectory and whether buybacks will finally outpace issuance
  • Net revenue retention by cohort — proof of platform stickiness vs the bear's 'replaceable tool' thesis
  • Any guide-down or competitive commentary referencing Intuit's encroachment
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16