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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 96% complete · +6 refreshed

Popular, Inc.

BPOP NASDAQ Categories PDF
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hato Rey, PR 00918, United States IPO 1980 popular.com Updated Jun 7, 4:08pm
Price
$153.07
Market Cap
$9.9B
Employees
9,274
Beta
0.64
Avg Volume
501,774
CEO
Javier D. Ferrer-Fernández
Business Description

Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 4:11pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:08pm (5d ago)
$153.07
+0.30 (+0.20%)
Day Range
$152.16 – $153.99
52-Week Range
$102.56 – $153.99
50-Day MA
$145.23
200-Day MA
$130.37
Volume
446,306.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $152.00
Consensus $159.33
High $170.00
(11 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 64,537,709.00
Float 63,016,417.00
Free Float 97.6%
High free float — 97.6% of shares trade freely, ~2.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:10pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
11.02
Stock Price: $153.07
EPS (Diluted): 12.31
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.35
Stock Price: $153.07
Total Equity: $6.25B
Shares: 67,612,847
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
5.52
Market Cap: $9.88B
Total Debt: $1.46B
Cash: $5.03B
EBITDA: $1.01B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.0B
Market Cap: $9.88B
Total Debt: $1.46B
Cash: $5.03B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
66.1%
Gross Profit: $2.93B
Revenue: $4.43B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
22.7%
Operating Income: $1.01B
Revenue: $4.43B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
18.8%
Net Income: $833.16M
Revenue: $4.43B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
14.6%
Net Income: $833.16M
Total Equity: $6.25B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
11.6%
Operating Income: $1.01B
Tax Rate: 17.2%
Equity: $6.25B
Total Debt: $1.46B
Cash: $5.03B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.38
Current Assets: $25.71B
Current Liabilities: $68.00B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.23
Short-Term Debt: $697.74M
Long-Term Debt: $759.58M
Total Debt: $1.46B
Total Equity: $6.25B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$65.50
Revenue: $4.43B
Shares: 67,612,847
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$92.42
Total Equity: $6.25B
Shares: 67,612,847
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$10.07
Operating CF: $878.45M
CapEx: -$197.46M
Shares: 67,612,847
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $153.07
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $833.16M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:10pm
Compares BPOP against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:14:38 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.6B $3.2B $3.8B $4.2B $4.4B
Cost of Revenue -$28.4M $381.6M $1.3B $1.6B $1.5B
Gross Profit $2.7B $2.9B $2.4B $2.5B $2.9B
Operating Expenses $1.4B $1.6B $1.8B $1.7B $1.9B
Operating Income $1.2B $1.2B $675.5M $796.6M $1.0B
Net Income $934.9M $1.1B $541.3M $614.2M $833.2M
EBITDA $1.3B $1.3B $737.2M $856.6M $1.0B
EPS $11.49 $14.65 $7.53 $8.56 $12.31
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:11pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $18.0B $6.1B $7.4B $6.8B $5.0B
Total Current Assets $44.7B $24.4B $24.7B $25.5B $25.7B
Total Assets $75.1B $67.6B $70.8B $73.0B $75.3B
Current Liabilities $67.6B $62.2B $64.2B $66.2B $68.0B
Long-Term Debt $988.6M $886.7M $986.9M $896.3M $759.6M
Total Liabilities $69.1B $63.5B $65.6B $67.4B $69.1B
Total Equity $6.0B $4.1B $5.1B $5.6B $6.2B
Retained Earnings $3.0B $3.8B $4.2B $4.6B $5.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.0B $1.0B $686.6M $674.7M $878.4M
Capital Expenditure -$73.7M -$103.8M -$208.0M -$213.4M -$197.5M
Free Cash Flow $931.5M $910.7M $478.6M $461.3M $681.0M
Acquisitions (net) -$155.8M $219.9M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$350.5M -$631.9M $-461,000 -$213.9M -$504.7M
Net Change in Cash -$62.6M $41.6M -$48.6M $1.8M -$16.4M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:09pm (5d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $3.3B
$3.3B – $3.3B
$3.6B
$3.5B – $3.6B
$3.7B
$3.7B – $3.8B
$3.8B
$3.8B – $3.8B
EBITDA $1.0B
$992.8M – $1.0B
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
Net Income $800.0M
$795.2M – $804.7M
$1.0B
$1.0B – $1.0B
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.2B
$1.3B
$1.2B – $1.3B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +22.4% +16.1% +11.5% +5.7%
Gross Profit Growth +6.8% -14.7% +4.4% +15.1%
Operating Income Growth -0.7% -45.3% +17.9% +26.4%
Net Income Growth +17.9% -50.9% +13.5% +35.6%
EBITDA Growth -1.1% -43.0% +16.2% +17.5%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:12pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-22 Sanchez Alejandro M S-Sale 300.00 $150.36 $45,108
2026-05-08 Soto Myrna F-InKind 206.00 $149.01 $30,696
2026-05-08 Sanchez Alejandro M A-Award 906.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Sanchez Alejandro M F-InKind 68.00 $149.01 $10,133
2026-05-08 UNANUE CARLOS A-Award 1,477.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Rodriguez Jose Ramon A-Award 1,712.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 GOODWIN C KIM A-Award 906.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 CARRION RICHARD L A-Award 906.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 DeVita Betty K A-Award 906.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Chappuis Bertil E. A-Award 1,645.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 CARRADY ROBERT A-Award 1,477.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 BALLESTER ALEJANDRO M A-Award 906.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Ferre Maria Luisa A-Award 1,141.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 GONZALEZ-NOGUERA MARIA CRISTINA S-Sale 6,200.00 $148.51 $920,787
2026-04-30 BALLESTER ALEJANDRO M S-Sale 23,000.00 $150.00 $3.5M
2026-04-27 Flores Hector Alejandro F-InKind 263.00 $150.62 $39,613
2026-04-27 Rodriguez Adorno Denissa F-InKind 87.00 $150.62 $13,104
2026-04-01 Chappuis Bertil E. A-Award 23.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 UNANUE CARLOS A-Award 141.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Soto Myrna A-Award 110.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:09pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-29 $0.75 2026-05-08 2026-05-29 2026-07-01
2026-03-18 $0.75 2026-02-26 2026-03-18 2026-04-01
2025-12-05 $0.75 2025-11-14 2025-12-05 2026-01-02
2025-09-12 $0.75 2025-08-22 2025-09-12 2025-10-01
2025-05-29 $0.70 2025-05-08 2025-05-29 2025-07-01
2025-03-18 $0.70 2025-02-26 2025-03-18 2025-04-01
2024-12-06 $0.70 2024-11-15 2024-12-06 2025-01-02
2024-09-13 $0.62 2024-08-23 2024-09-13 2024-10-01
2024-05-30 $0.62 2024-05-09 2024-05-30 2024-07-01
2024-03-13 $0.62 2024-02-23 2024-03-14 2024-04-01
2023-12-06 $0.62 2023-11-16 2023-12-07 2024-01-02
2023-09-07 $0.55 2023-08-18 2023-09-08 2023-10-02
2023-05-31 $0.55 2023-05-11 2023-06-01 2023-07-03
2023-03-17 $0.55 2023-02-28 2023-03-20 2023-04-03
2022-12-06 $0.55 2022-11-16 2022-12-07 2023-01-03
2022-09-06 $0.55 2022-08-17 2022-09-07 2022-10-03
2022-06-01 $0.55 2022-05-12 2022-06-02 2022-07-01
2022-03-14 $0.55 2022-02-23 2022-03-15 2022-04-01
2021-12-06 $0.45 2021-11-16 2021-12-07 2022-01-03
2021-09-09 $0.45 2021-08-20 2021-09-10 2021-10-01
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BPOP.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 17:04:00
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — starter here, scale on dip 7/10
Solid-quality Puerto Rico bank (Q73) that's only modestly cheap (V32) — worth owning, but I want a better entry before I size up.
The cruxWhether the price comes to me near $145, or whether the margin-recovery trajectory keeps compounding fast enough to make today's $153 look cheap in hindsight.
Company Quality
+73
Solid
edge √Σ 128 · risk √Σ 55 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
+32
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 47 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a coherent story: this is a legitimately well-run franchise (Q73 — clean earnings, real 4.5%/yr share shrinkage, margin recovery underway) trading at a modest ~18-20% discount to a credible $180-185 deserved value (V32). That's a buy, but not a pound-the-table buy — the value gap isn't wide enough to ignore the Puerto Rico concentration risk that neither lens fully prices. My playbook: open a starter position here at $153, roughly 1/3 of target weight. I want the optionality of owning the buyback compounding and the margin recovery if it just grinds higher from here, without committing capital I'd regret if PR macro or rate dynamics turn.

The real add zone is sub-$145 — that's where the value lens flags it as properly attractive and where I'd take it to a full ~3-4% book weight in a diversified sleeve. If it rips through $175 before I get the dip, I'm done adding and just ride the starter; I'm not chasing a 22% upside name into its fair-value band. Catalysts that flip me aggressive: continued OpM expansion back toward 30%+ (closing the gap to the 2022 peak), or any tape-driven selloff in regional banks that takes BPOP down 10%+ on no company-specific news. Catalysts that flip me to the exit: PR fiscal/macro deterioration, or any crack in the earnings-quality picture (OCF/NI slipping, accrual build). Decisive read: own it, don't crowd it.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+73 Solid edge √Σ 128 · risk √Σ 55 · conf 7/10

Popular is a mature regional bank that has executed steadily: revenue has grown from $2.64B (2021) to $4.43B (2025), a ~14% CAGR, while diluted share count has shrunk from 81.4M to 67.6M (-4.5%/yr) — a textbook capital-return profile. Earnings quality looks legitimate: OCF/NI of 1.08x, accruals at -0.1% of assets, and Beneish M of -3.39 all point to clean reporting with no manipulation flags. FCF of $681M in 2025 fully self-funds the dividend and buyback program, and SBC at 0.6% of revenue with a buyback/SBC ratio of 1738% means management is genuinely concentrating per-share value rather than papering over comp.

The profitability arc is the wrinkle: operating margin compressed from 47.1% in 2021 to 18% in 2023 (rate-cycle / deposit-cost pressure typical for regional banks), and is now rebuilding to 22.7% in 2025. Net income dropped from $1.10B (2022) to $541M (2023) and has since recovered to $833M (2025) — still below the 2022 peak. This is a bank that took an earnings hit through the rate cycle and is climbing back, not a structurally broken franchise. The Altman Z of -0.39 'distress' reading is a false positive — the Z-score is calibrated for industrial firms and is essentially meaningless for banks, whose business model is built on leverage.

Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative: 5 sales totaling ~$4.9M against zero open-market buys, with two notable sales (Ballester $3.5M, Gonzalez-Noguera $920K). Nothing screams alarm — looks like routine post-vest liquidation — but no insider is stepping up to buy either. Overall this is a competently managed mature bank with credible earnings, real per-share compounding, and a recovering margin profile.

Strengths 4
m75
Genuine share-count shrinkage
Diluted shares fell from 81.4M (2021) to 67.6M (2025), -4.5% CAGR. Buyback spend is 17x SBC — per-share value is being concentrated, not diluted.
m65
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.08x, accruals -0.1% of assets, Beneish M -3.39. No signs of accrual-based earnings inflation; reported numbers appear real.
m60
Margin recovery underway
Operating margin troughed at 18% in 2023 and has rebuilt to 22.7% in 2025; net income recovered from $541M to $833M over two years. The franchise weathered the rate cycle.
m55
Self-funding cash generation
FCF of $681M in 2025 (up from $461M in 2024) comfortably covers capital return; SBC at 0.6% of revenue is minimal for a bank this size.
Concerns 3
m45
Profitability still below 2021-22 peak
2025 net income of $833M and OpM of 22.7% remain well below 2022's $1.10B / 38.2%. Recovery is real but incomplete — earnings power is rate-cycle sensitive.
m25
Insider sales, no open-market buys
5 sales totaling $4.93M in 12 months (Ballester $3.5M, Gonzalez-Noguera $920K) with zero P-code buys. Routine in pattern but no insider conviction signal.
m20
Puerto Rico geographic concentration (inferred)
BPOP's franchise is heavily Puerto Rico-anchored, which carries macro/fiscal tail risk distinct from mainland regionals. Not visible in these modules but a structural quality factor.
This is a solid, unflashy regional bank doing the right things: shrinking the share count by ~4.5%/yr with real buybacks (not SBC-offset theater), keeping earnings clean (OCF/NI 1.08x, no Beneish flags), and clawing margins back from a rate-cycle trough. It's not a fortress — earnings are still 25% below the 2022 peak and Puerto Rico concentration is a real structural risk the modules don't capture — but it's a competently run franchise compounding per-share value. The Altman Z 'distress' flag is noise (wrong model for a bank), and the insider sales are routine. I'd call this a quality B+ business: durable, disciplined on capital return, but not in the elite tier.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Tangible book value per share trajectory and CET1 capital ratio — the real solvency metrics for a bank (Altman Z is not applicable)
  • Net interest margin trend and deposit beta — what's actually driving the margin recovery
  • Non-performing loan ratio and reserve coverage — credit quality is the key quality variable for any bank
  • Geographic / segment split between Puerto Rico (Banco Popular de PR) and U.S. mainland (Popular Bank) operations
  • Exposure to Puerto Rico government debt and any remaining fiscal-crisis legacy positions
  • Whether the $25.6B 'liquid cash' figure is operating cash or includes customer deposits / securities portfolio (the cash/mktcap framing is misleading for a bank)
+32 Modestly Cheap edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 47 · conf 6/10
Price $153 vs deserved ~$180-185, ~18-20% gap — modestly cheap, not a screaming bargain. attractive below $145.00

The e2e composite pegs fair value at $187.99 and signal-adjusted at $202.08, with both methods (EPV $185.71, anchored-PE $190.26) clustering in a tight $185-$202 band — that consistency is reassuring and not a runaway. Against the $153.07 price, that's a ~22-32% implied upside. I haircut modestly for Puerto Rico single-territory concentration and earnings still ~25% below the 2022 peak, landing on a deserved value closer to $180-$185, which still leaves ~18-20% upside and a real margin of safety.

What's priced in: the market is treating BPOP like a structurally challenged territory bank that deserves a discount to mainland peers. What's not fully priced in: the disciplined ~4.5%/yr buyback (real share count reduction, not SBC theater), clean earnings quality (OCF/NI 1.08x), and the margin recovery already underway. This isn't 'priced for perfection' in any direction — it's priced for stagnation, and a solid-quality bank executing buybacks shouldn't trade at stagnation multiples. Not a fat pitch, but a respectable gap.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Two methods converge well above price
EPV floor $185.71 and anchored-PE $190.26 are within 3% of each other — the $187.99 composite isn't a single-method artifact. Implies ~23% upside even before signal adjustment.
m45
Real buyback compounding at a discount
~4.5%/yr share count reduction at a price below tangible book and below fair value mechanically accretes per-share value — buyback yield alone covers a chunk of the gap.
m35
Clean earnings support the deserved-value math
OCF/NI 1.08x and no Beneish flags mean the EPV input isn't inflated — the $185 floor is built on real cash earnings, not accrual fluff.
Rich / priced-in 2
m40
Puerto Rico concentration deserves a structural discount
Single-territory deposit base with demographic and economic headwinds — the discount to mainland regional peers is partly rational, not pure mispricing. Trim deserved value ~5-8% for this.
m25
Earnings still below cycle peak
EPS ~25% below 2022 peak; if margin recovery stalls, the anchored-PE input overstates normalized power. Caps the upside case.
Modestly cheap, not a fat pitch. The fair-value cluster around $185-190 is credible and consistent across methods, and at $153 there's a real ~18-20% gap after I haircut for PR concentration. I'd be a buyer, but I'm not backing up the truck — I want it under ~$145 to feel like I'm getting paid properly for the single-territory risk. At today's price it's a respectable holding, not a table-pounder.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • NIM trajectory and deposit costs in next 1-2 quarters — confirms margin recovery thesis underpinning EPV
  • PR credit metrics (NPLs, charge-offs) for any deterioration that would re-rate deserved value lower
  • Pace and price of buybacks — confirms management still views shares as cheap
  • Any guidance change on normalized ROE/ROTCE — drives the anchored-PE math
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16