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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 93% complete · +6 refreshed

Element Solutions Inc

ESI NYSE Categories PDF
Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialty
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33394, United States IPO 2013 elementsolutionsinc.com Updated Jun 7, 3:41pm
Price
$39.84
Market Cap
$9.7B
Employees
5,300
Beta
1.26
Avg Volume
3,021,414
CEO
Benjamin Gliklich
Business Description

Element Solutions Inc operates as a specialty chemicals company in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Electronics, and Industrial & Specialty. The Electronics segment researches, formulates, and sells specialty chemicals and materials for various types of electronics hardware products. This segment also supplies solder technologies, fluxes, cleaners, and other attachment materials for the electronics assembly industry; proprietary liquid chemical processes to manufacture printed circuit boards; and advanced copper interconnects, die attachment, wafer bump processes, and photomask technologies for integrated circuit fabrication and semiconductor packaging. It primarily serves mobile communications, computers, automobiles, and aerospace equipment industries. The Industrial & Specialty segment provides industrial solutions, which include chemical systems that protect and decorate metal and plastic surfaces; consumable chemicals that enable printing image transfer on flexible packaging materials; and chemistries used in water-based hydraulic control fluids for offshore energy production applications. It serves aerospace, automotive, construction, consumer electronics, consumer packaged goods, and oil and gas production end markets. The company was formerly known as Platform Specialty Products Corporation and changed its name to Element Solutions Inc in January 2019. Element Solutions Inc was founded in 1785 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:44pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:41pm (5d ago)
$39.84
-2.17 (-5.17%)
Day Range
$39.58 – $41.61
52-Week Range
$20.95 – $45.52
50-Day MA
$39.54
200-Day MA
$30.73
Volume
3,074,506.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $36.00
Consensus $42.43
High $52.00
(32 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 243,607,000.00
Float 228,002,753.00
Free Float 93.6%
High free float — 93.6% of shares trade freely, ~6.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:43pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
65.16
Stock Price: $39.84
EPS (Diluted): 0.79
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.26
Stock Price: $39.84
Total Equity: $2.67B
Shares: 242,400,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
25.95
Market Cap: $9.71B
Total Debt: $1.63B
Cash: $626.50M
EBITDA: $493.40M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$7.0B
Market Cap: $9.71B
Total Debt: $1.63B
Cash: $626.50M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
42.0%
Gross Profit: $1.07B
Revenue: $2.55B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
13.4%
Operating Income: $342.20M
Revenue: $2.55B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
7.5%
Net Income: $190.80M
Revenue: $2.55B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
5.6%
Net Income: $190.80M
Total Equity: $2.67B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
7.1%
Operating Income: $342.20M
Tax Rate: -64.2%
Equity: $2.67B
Total Debt: $1.63B
Cash: $626.50M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.68
Current Assets: $1.58B
Current Liabilities: $429.90M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.61
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $1.63B
Total Debt: $1.63B
Total Equity: $2.67B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$10.52
Revenue: $2.55B
Shares: 242,400,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$11.03
Total Equity: $2.67B
Shares: 242,400,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.94
Operating CF: $289.80M
CapEx: -$62.20M
Shares: 242,400,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $39.84
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $190.80M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:43pm
Compares ESI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:47:17 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.4B $2.5B $2.3B $2.5B $2.6B
Cost of Revenue $1.4B $1.6B $1.4B $1.4B $1.5B
Gross Profit $960.8M $952.7M $918.5M $1.0B $1.1B
Operating Expenses $660.9M $627.4M $744.9M $691.8M $728.3M
Operating Income $299.9M $325.3M $173.6M $343.9M $342.2M
Net Income $203.3M $187.2M $118.1M $244.2M $190.8M
EBITDA $475.5M $496.1M $345.1M $501.6M $493.4M
EPS $0.82 $0.76 $0.49 $1.01 $0.79
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:44pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $330.1M $265.6M $289.3M $359.4M $626.5M
Total Current Assets $1.2B $1.2B $1.2B $1.3B $1.6B
Total Assets $5.1B $4.9B $5.0B $4.9B $5.1B
Current Liabilities $415.2M $344.4M $369.4M $379.7M $429.9M
Long-Term Debt $1.9B $1.9B $1.9B $1.8B $1.6B
Total Liabilities $2.6B $2.6B $2.6B $2.5B $2.4B
Total Equity $2.5B $2.3B $2.3B $2.4B $2.7B
Retained Earnings -$1.3B -$1.2B -$1.2B -$1.0B -$904.6M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $322.5M $297.7M $335.8M $362.0M $289.8M
Capital Expenditure -$46.3M -$47.8M -$52.7M -$68.4M -$62.2M
Free Cash Flow $276.2M $249.9M $283.1M $293.6M $227.6M
Acquisitions (net) -$536.5M -$22.6M -$214.8M -$3.9M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$19.6M -$151.0M $0 $0 -$25.0M
Net Change in Cash $38.2M -$64.5M $23.7M $70.1M $267.1M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:41pm (5d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $2.5B
$2.5B – $2.5B
$3.5B
$3.4B – $3.5B
$3.7B
$3.6B – $3.8B
$3.9B
$3.9B – $3.9B
EBITDA $484.5M
$482.5M – $486.4M
$668.9M
$652.0M – $684.0M
$717.8M
$693.3M – $742.3M
$746.5M
$746.5M – $746.5M
Net Income $356.8M
$344.5M – $369.1M
$429.8M
$421.4M – $438.2M
$506.3M
$477.3M – $535.4M
$556.5M
$522.1M – $590.9M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +6.2% -8.5% +5.3% +3.8%
Gross Profit Growth -0.8% -3.6% +12.8% +3.4%
Operating Income Growth +8.5% -46.6% +98.1% -0.5%
Net Income Growth -7.9% -36.9% +106.8% -21.9%
EBITDA Growth +4.3% -30.4% +45.3% -1.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:44pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-04 Filon Elyse Napoli M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Filon Elyse Napoli A-Award 3,272.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Filon Elyse Napoli M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Sofronas Susan W. M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Sofronas Susan W. A-Award 3,272.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Sofronas Susan W. M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 FRANKLIN MARTIN E 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Fraser Christopher T. M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Fraser Christopher T. A-Award 3,272.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Fraser Christopher T. M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ASHKEN IAN G H J-Other 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ASHKEN IAN G H M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ASHKEN IAN G H A-Award 3,272.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ASHKEN IAN G H M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ASHKEN IAN G H J-Other 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ONEAL E STANLEY M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ONEAL E STANLEY A-Award 3,272.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 ONEAL E STANLEY M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 GOSS MICHAEL F M-Exempt 6,539.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 GOSS MICHAEL F A-Award 3,272.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:41pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-01 $0.08 2026-05-20 2026-06-01 2026-06-15
2026-03-02 $0.08 2026-02-10 2026-03-02 2026-03-16
2025-12-01 $0.08 2025-11-20 2025-12-01 2025-12-15
2025-09-02 $0.08 2025-08-21 2025-09-02 2025-09-15
2025-06-02 $0.08 2025-05-21 2025-06-02 2025-06-16
2025-03-03 $0.08 2025-02-12 2025-03-03 2025-03-17
2024-12-02 $0.08 2024-11-18 2024-12-02 2024-12-16
2024-08-30 $0.08 2024-08-20 2024-08-30 2024-09-13
2024-05-31 $0.08 2024-05-20 2024-05-31 2024-06-14
2024-02-29 $0.08 2024-02-13 2024-03-01 2024-03-15
2023-11-30 $0.08 2023-11-16 2023-12-01 2023-12-15
2023-08-31 $0.08 2023-08-22 2023-09-01 2023-09-15
2023-05-31 $0.08 2023-05-22 2023-06-01 2023-06-15
2023-02-28 $0.08 2023-02-13 2023-03-01 2023-03-15
2022-11-30 $0.08 2022-11-17 2022-12-01 2022-12-15
2022-08-31 $0.08 2022-08-18 2022-09-01 2022-09-15
2022-05-31 $0.08 2022-05-19 2022-06-01 2022-06-15
2022-02-28 $0.08 2022-02-15 2022-03-01 2022-03-15
2021-11-30 $0.08 2021-11-18 2021-12-01 2021-12-15
2021-08-31 $0.06 2021-08-19 2021-09-01 2021-09-15
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ESI.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:57:16
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass at spot — revisit in mid-$20s 8/10
Solid cash-generative business (+20 quality) trading at roughly 2.5x its deserved value (-91 valuation) — good company, terrible entry.
The cruxWhether you're willing to pay peak-cycle compounder multiples for a flat-revenue, cyclical specialty chemical operator with $1B net debt — and the math says no.
Company Quality
+20
Solid
edge √Σ 117 · risk √Σ 98 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-91
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses don't actually conflict here — they triangulate. Quality says +20 'Solid': clean accruals, OCF/NI of 1.8x, real buybacks, but flat revenue, cyclical margins, and a levered balance sheet. Valuation says -91 'Rich': DCF, EPV, and composite all cluster in the $13-15 range, and even a generous quality-adjusted gross-up only gets me to $22-25 against a $40 print. The gap isn't a rounding error or a multiple-debate — it's 40-60%. Crucially, the Quality lens itself denies me the 'it's a compounder, pay up' bailout. You can't pay elite-compounder prices for a solid-but-cyclical operator and expect to make money.

My play: zero position today. I'm not shorting it — clean earnings and real buybacks make this a bad short, the +20 quality protects the downside tape. But I'm also not nibbling 'because it's a good business' at 2.5x deserved value. I put this on the watchlist with a hard alert at $26 for a starter (1% position), and I'd only scale to a full 3-4% weight in the low-$20s with confirmation that the cyclical trough on op margins is actually behind us — i.e., two clean quarters of 13%+ op margin AND evidence the semis/electronics demand pulse isn't rolling over. Until then this is somebody else's problem; my capital sits in names where quality and price agree.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+20 Solid edge √Σ 117 · risk √Σ 98 · conf 7/10

Element Solutions is a mature specialty-chemicals earner that converts cash well: FCF of $228–294M over the last four years against net income that's bounced between $118M and $244M, giving an OCF/NI ratio of 1.8x and negative accruals (-2.7% of assets) — both signs the reported earnings are real. Gross margin has actually expanded from 40% in 2021 to ~42% in 2024–25, and the diluted share count has drifted down from 247.9M to 242.4M (a -0.6% CAGR) with buybacks running 238% of SBC. That's genuine per-share value concentration, not a paper-shuffling exercise.

The blemishes are real though. Net debt of ~$999M against $626M cash means the balance sheet is a constraint; Altman Z of 3.16 is safe but not bulletproof. Operating margin collapsed to 7.4% in 2023 before recovering to 13–14%, and 2025 net income ($191M) regressed from 2024's $244M despite flat-to-up revenue, suggesting earnings power is cyclical rather than steadily compounding. Revenue has been essentially flat at $2.4–2.55B for five years — this is not a growth story, it's a cash-flow story with mild operational volatility.

Insider tape over the period shown is almost entirely routine option exercises (M), awards (A), and J-Other items — no open-market P or S transactions visible in the recent slice, so the 'unusual selling' flag from the summary needs context. The mechanical forensics (Beneish -2.41, clean accruals) say the numbers are trustworthy.

Strengths 4
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.8x, accruals -2.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.41 — multiple independent checks say earnings are backed by cash, not accounting cosmetics.
m65
Consistent FCF generation
FCF of $276M, $250M, $283M, $294M, $228M across 2021-2025 — durable cash conversion through revenue and margin swings.
m55
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares declined from 247.9M to 242.4M; buyback spend is 2.4x SBC, so management is a net concentrator of equity, not a diluter.
m40
Gross margin expansion
GM% moved from 40% (2021) to 42% (2024-25), suggesting pricing power or mix improvement in the specialty portfolio.
Concerns 4
m60
Net debt position
Net debt of ~$999M vs $626M cash — balance sheet is a constraint not a cushion; limits resilience in a downturn and shapes capital allocation.
m55
Earnings volatility
Operating margin swung 12.5% → 12.8% → 7.4% → 14% → 13.4%; net income dropped 22% in 2025 ($244M→$191M) despite revenue growth — earnings power is not smoothly compounding.
m50
No top-line growth
Revenue has been flat at ~$2.4-2.55B for five years (2021: $2.40B, 2025: $2.55B = ~1.5% CAGR) — quality of the business depends entirely on margins/cash, not expansion.
m20
Insider selling flag needs scrutiny
Module reports 5 sells totaling $16.8M and zero buys over 12 months, flagged as unusual; the tape shown is dominated by routine M/A/J codes, so the directional S transactions are not in this slice.
This is a solid, honestly-run cash machine, not an elite compounder. The earnings-quality signals are genuinely clean — OCF outruns NI, accruals are negative, and management is buying back stock faster than it issues it, which is rare and meaningful. But the business itself isn't growing, margins are cyclical (that 2023 dip to 7.4% op margin is not nothing), and a billion in net debt means they don't get to make mistakes. I'd call it a credible mature earner with trustworthy financials and disciplined capital return — Solid, not Strong, because the lack of growth and the leverage cap the durability story.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Composition and maturity ladder of the ~$1.6B gross debt — fixed vs floating, covenants, refinancing windows
  • Segment mix (Electronics vs Industrial & Specialty) and whether 2023 op-margin collapse was end-market cyclicality or a specific issue
  • Why 2025 net income fell to $190.8M while FCF held at $227.6M and revenue rose — one-time items, tax, interest expense?
  • Identity and context of the $16.8M in insider sales flagged as unusual — 10b5-1 plan vs discretionary
  • Customer concentration in electronics segment (semiconductor/PCB exposure)
  • Acquisition cadence and goodwill/intangibles as % of assets — specialty chem roll-ups can mask organic weakness
-91 Rich edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 6/10
Price $39.84 vs deserved ~$15 (composite) to ~$25 (quality-adjusted generous case) — roughly 40-60% above any defensible deserved value. attractive below $24.00

The composite fair value lands at $13.69 with a signal-adjusted $14.97, and the EPV floor sits at $14.29 — all three methods cluster in the mid-teens, which is unusual agreement. Against a $39.84 price that implies the market is paying ~2.7× the modeled deserved value. Even if I assume the DCF/EPV are too punitive on a solid, cash-generative specialty chemicals operator (Quality lens: Solid, 20) and gross up deserved value by 50-75% to reflect the clean earnings quality and disciplined buybacks, I still land around $21-26 — well below spot.

What's priced in: sustained peak-cycle semis/electronics demand, margin expansion off the 2023 trough (7.4% op margin), and a re-rating to compounder multiples on a business that the quality lens explicitly says is not an elite compounder. With ~$1B net debt and cyclical margin history, paying a full-cycle peak multiple here offers no margin of safety. Earnings quality is high (no haircut needed), which prevents this from being a screaming short, but it doesn't close a 60%+ gap.

Honest read: this isn't 'fairly valued and I'm nitpicking' — the gap is too wide. Either the models are materially wrong on terminal growth/margin, or the stock is meaningfully ahead of itself heading into a late-cycle setup.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Clean earnings quality and real buybacks
OCF > NI, negative accruals, net share count shrinking — these support a higher deserved value than the raw DCF prints, but at most justify a 30-50% uplift to ~$20-22, not a double.
Rich / priced-in 4
m75
All three methods cluster well below price
DCF $13.39, EPV $14.29, composite $13.69, signal-adj $14.97 — tight clustering in the $13-15 range vs $39.84 spot implies ~62% downside on the model. Tight method agreement makes this harder to dismiss as a single runaway input.
m70
Priced for sustained peak-cycle conditions
Narrative is explicitly cyclical-late-stage; the 2023 op margin dip to 7.4% shows what the downcycle looks like. Today's multiple assumes margins hold/expand through a semis capex cycle — heroic given history.
m45
Leverage limits multiple expansion case
~$1B net debt on a cyclical specialty chemicals book means deserved EV multiple should compress, not expand, into late cycle. Equity holders don't get a fortress-balance-sheet premium here.
m30
Quality grade does not bridge the gap
Quality lens explicitly says 'Solid, not elite compounder' — so the standard compounder-multiple bailout doesn't apply. Paying compounder prices for a solid-but-cyclical operator is the textbook mispricing setup.
I can't make this one work on price. Three independent methods point to mid-teens deserved value, and even when I give the business full credit for clean earnings and disciplined buybacks, I get to maybe $22-25 — still well below $40. The Quality lens itself says this isn't an elite compounder, so I can't lean on a re-rating thesis. I'd want to see this back in the mid-$20s before I'd call it interesting, and even then I'd want confirmation the cyclical trough is behind it. At spot, the market is paying for a story the fundamentals haven't yet earned.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward guidance on segment margins — is the 2023 trough behind them durably, or one good cycle?
  • Free cash flow conversion and buyback pace at current price (are they still buying at $40?)
  • Net debt trajectory and any refi at higher rates
  • Semis/electronics end-market mix and visibility into 2025 orders
  • Any one-time benefits inflating TTM earnings that the DCF is extrapolating off
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16