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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 86% complete · +11 refreshed

Hecla Mining Company

HL NYSE Categories PDF
Basic Materials · Silver
Coeur d'Alene, ID 83815-9408, United States IPO 1980 hecla-mining.com Updated Jun 7, 2:42pm
Price
$14.78
Market Cap
$9.9B
Employees
1,830
Beta
1.27
Avg Volume
15,222,220
CEO
Robert L. Krcmarov
Business Description

Hecla Mining Company, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, acquires, develops, and produces precious and base metal properties in the United States and internationally. The company mines for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates, as well as carbon material containing silver and gold for sale to custom smelters, metal traders, and third-party processors,; and doré containing silver and gold. It owns 100% interests in the Greens Creek mine located on Admiralty Island in southeast Alaska; the Lucky Friday mine situated in northern Idaho; the Casa Berardi mine located in the Abitibi region of northwestern Quebec, Canada; and the San Sebastian mine situated in the city of Durango, Mexico. The company also holds 100% interests in the Fire Creek mine located in Lander County, Nevada; and the Hollister and Midas mines situated in Elko County, Nevada. Hecla Mining Company was incorporated in 1891 and is headquartered in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 2:44pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:37pm (5d ago)
$14.78
-2.05 (-12.18%)
Day Range
$14.61 – $16.25
52-Week Range
$5.48 – $34.17
50-Day MA
$18.37
200-Day MA
$17.33
Volume
27,150,224.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $13.00
Consensus $23.35
High $28.00
(21 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 670,712,000.00
Float 662,395,569.00
Free Float 98.8%
High free float — 98.8% of shares trade freely, ~1.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:44pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
36.19
Stock Price: $14.78
EPS (Diluted): 0.49
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.83
Stock Price: $14.78
Total Equity: $2.59B
Shares: 655,768,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.34
Market Cap: $9.91B
Total Debt: $268.63M
Cash: $241.56M
EBITDA: $686.33M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$12.5B
Market Cap: $9.91B
Total Debt: $268.63M
Cash: $241.56M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
43.7%
Gross Profit: $622.20M
Revenue: $1.42B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
37.7%
Operating Income: $536.67M
Revenue: $1.42B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
22.6%
Net Income: $321.71M
Revenue: $1.42B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
11.0%
Net Income: $321.71M
Total Equity: $2.59B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
15.4%
Operating Income: $536.67M
Tax Rate: 32.9%
Equity: $2.59B
Total Debt: $268.63M
Cash: $241.56M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.72
Current Assets: $629.34M
Current Liabilities: $231.56M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.10
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $268.63M
Total Debt: $268.63M
Total Equity: $2.59B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$2.17
Revenue: $1.42B
Shares: 655,768,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$3.95
Total Equity: $2.59B
Shares: 655,768,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.47
Operating CF: $562.64M
CapEx: -$252.39M
Shares: 655,768,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.1%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $14.78
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $321.71M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:44pm
Compares HL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:48:59 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $807.5M $718.9M $720.2M $929.9M $1.4B
Cost of Revenue $589.7M $602.7M $607.3M $731.7M $800.8M
Gross Profit $217.8M $116.2M $112.9M $198.2M $622.2M
Operating Expenses $134.4M $128.6M $157.6M $91.9M $85.5M
Operating Income $83.4M -$12.4M -$44.7M $106.3M $536.7M
Net Income $35.1M -$37.3M -$84.2M $35.8M $321.7M
EBITDA $220.1M $143.0M $124.0M $313.4M $686.3M
EPS $0.06 $-0.07 $-0.14 $0.06 $0.49
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:42pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $210.0M $104.7M $106.4M $26.9M $241.6M
Total Current Assets $341.6M $267.7M $260.3M $214.2M $629.3M
Total Assets $2.7B $2.9B $3.0B $3.0B $3.6B
Current Liabilities $160.4M $178.5M $157.5M $197.8M $231.6M
Long-Term Debt $515.9M $517.7M $653.1M $508.9M $268.6M
Total Liabilities $968.0M $948.2M $1.0B $941.5M $969.0M
Total Equity $1.8B $2.0B $2.0B $2.0B $2.6B
Retained Earnings -$353.7M -$403.9M -$503.9M -$493.5M -$182.1M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $220.3M $89.9M $75.5M $218.3M $562.6M
Capital Expenditure -$109.0M -$149.4M -$223.9M -$214.5M -$252.4M
Free Cash Flow $111.3M -$59.5M -$148.4M $3.8M $310.2M
Acquisitions (net) $1.1M -$16.0M $228,000 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$4.5M $0 $0 $0 $-885,000
Net Change in Cash $80.2M -$105.2M $1.6M -$79.5M $214.7M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:42pm (5d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $1.5B
$1.2B – $1.8B
$1.5B
$1.2B – $1.9B
$2.7B
$2.2B – $3.5B
$3.2B
$2.6B – $4.1B
EBITDA $428.6M
$351.1M – $540.0M
$442.2M
$362.2M – $557.1M
$802.9M
$657.7M – $1.0B
$946.1M
$775.0M – $1.2B
Net Income $695.4M
$598.2M – $1.0B
$684.5M
$493.5M – $824.6M
$406.6M
$311.0M – $544.0M
$360.7M
$275.9M – $482.6M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -11.0% +0.2% +29.1% +53.0%
Gross Profit Growth -46.7% -2.8% +75.5% +213.9%
Operating Income Growth -114.9% -259.2% +337.9% +405.0%
Net Income Growth -206.4% -125.5% +142.5% +798.6%
EBITDA Growth -35.0% -13.3% +152.7% +119.0%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-04-13 Moyes Kari G. A-Award 15,208.00 $19.85 $301,879
2026-04-13 Moyes Kari G. 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos Roberto M-Exempt 21,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos Roberto F-InKind 6,520.00 $24.63 $160,588
2026-03-02 Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos Roberto M-Exempt 21,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Sienko David C M-Exempt 23,881.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Sienko David C F-InKind 7,294.00 $24.63 $179,651
2026-03-02 Sienko David C M-Exempt 23,881.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Allen Kurt M-Exempt 21,782.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Allen Kurt F-InKind 5,541.00 $24.63 $136,475
2026-03-02 Allen Kurt M-Exempt 21,782.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Brown Robert Denis M-Exempt 25,050.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Brown Robert Denis F-InKind 13,402.00 $24.63 $330,091
2026-03-02 Brown Robert Denis M-Exempt 25,050.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Lawlar Russell Douglas M-Exempt 29,609.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Lawlar Russell Douglas F-InKind 14,377.00 $24.63 $354,106
2026-03-02 Lawlar Russell Douglas M-Exempt 29,609.00 $0.00 $0
2026-01-06 Allen Kurt S-Sale 9,560.00 $22.00 $210,353
2026-01-06 Allen Kurt S-Sale 42,659.00 $21.89 $933,656
2026-01-06 Allen Kurt J-Other 23,774.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:42pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-22 $0.00 2026-05-01 2026-05-22 2026-06-10
2026-03-09 $0.00 2026-02-13 2026-03-09 2026-03-24
2025-11-24 $0.00 2025-11-03 2025-11-24 2025-12-08
2025-08-22 $0.00 2025-08-06 2025-08-22 2025-09-04
2025-05-23 $0.00 2025-05-01 2025-05-23 2025-06-10
2025-03-10 $0.00 2025-02-13 2025-03-10 2025-03-24
2024-11-21 $0.01 2024-11-06 2024-11-21 2024-12-04
2024-08-26 $0.01 2024-08-06 2024-08-26 2024-09-05
2024-05-23 $0.01 2024-05-08 2024-05-24 2024-06-11
2024-03-11 $0.01 2024-02-14 2024-03-12 2024-03-25
2023-11-22 $0.01 2023-11-06 2023-11-24 2023-12-07
2023-08-23 $0.01 2023-08-08 2023-08-24 2023-09-07
2023-05-19 $0.01 2023-05-10 2023-05-22 2023-06-09
2023-03-08 $0.01 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 2023-03-24
2022-11-23 $0.00 2022-11-09 2022-11-25 2022-12-07
2022-08-18 $0.01 2022-08-04 2022-08-19 2022-09-02
2022-05-24 $0.01 2022-05-10 2022-05-25 2022-06-10
2022-03-08 $0.01 2022-02-22 2022-03-09 2022-03-18
2021-11-18 $0.01 2021-11-03 2021-11-19 2021-12-03
2021-08-20 $0.01 2021-08-04 2021-08-23 2021-09-03
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for HL.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 16:49:36
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued on normalized metals assumptions — fair value $9-11 versus $14.78; the Q1 loss is the canary, wait for either silver >$38 confirmation or a $10-handle pullback before engaging.

The raw tape tells a clearer story than the synthesis is giving credit for, but also a more dangerous one. Hecla printed $1.42B in 2025 revenue versus $929.9M in 2024 and $720M in 2023 — that's not operational genius, it's silver going from ~$24 to ~$35 and gold ripping to record highs. The quarterly progression is the tell: rev climbed $261M → $304M → $409M → $448M through 2025 as metals re-rated, then Q1 2026 already snapped back to $411M with a $19M net *loss*. One quarter doesn't make a trend, but a swing from 30% net margin to -4.6% in a single quarter on flattish revenue screams either a write-down, hedge mark, or cost inflation hitting — and that is exactly the kind of print that exposes "high-growth profitable" as a misclassification. The rule-based archetype is wrong; pre-flight got it right calling this commodity-leveraged-cyclical.

That said, the synthesis verdict ("Disconnected from Fundamentals," 60% growth implied, priced like a tech stock) overstates the case in one important way. EV/EBITDA of 11.3x is not a tech multiple — it's roughly in line with where Pan American, First Majestic, and other silver primaries trade at mid-cycle. The 36x P/E and 8.8x P/S look terrifying only because they're calculated against either the depressed Q1 print or the peak 2025 numbers respectively; on normalized mid-cycle earnings (call it $150-200M NI assuming silver settles $28-30), you're at 50-65x, which IS rich, but the market isn't pricing a 60% perpetual growth rate — it's pricing the option value of silver staying elevated. Market Forces calling for a short is too aggressive: $562M operating CF and $310M FCF in 2025 are real, the balance sheet has $241M cash, and the current ratio of 2.7 says no near-term distress. "Weak cash flow quality" is wrong on the 2025 print — OCF/NI was 1.75x, which is excellent for a miner.

The contrarian case nobody's voicing: if silver actually does break $40 and hold (plausible given central bank gold buying, solar demand at ~200Moz/yr, and a structural mine supply deficit), Hecla's operating leverage means 2026 could print $1.7B+ revenue and $450M+ NI, and the stock is suddenly 22x forward earnings on a primary silver producer with Greens Creek — which is genuinely a top-tier asset. The bear synthesis is treating the silver thesis as obviously wrong; it isn't obviously wrong, it's just unknowable. The insider activity is also being misread as neutral — what I see is exclusively M-Exempt option exercises with F-InKind tax withholdings and an A-Award grant. There are zero open-market sells in this list. That's not "insiders selling at highs" as Market Forces claimed; that's routine comp vesting. Market Forces is factually wrong on that point.

Where I land: the synthesis is directionally right that this is mispriced to the upside of a silver thesis that may not hold, but the magnitude of the dislocation is overstated and the Q1 2026 loss is the more important data point everyone is glossing over. A $9.91B market cap on a company that just printed a quarterly loss while silver is still near cycle highs is the actual red flag — it suggests cost structure is deteriorating (labor, diesel, lower-grade ore) and the 2025 margin peak may already be in the rearview. Mid-cycle fair value on 4-5% FCF yield against normalized $250-300M FCF is roughly $6-7.5B equity, or $9-11/share. You only get to $14.78 by underwriting sustained $32+ silver. I dissent partially from the synthesis: not "disconnected from fundamentals" — more like "priced for a commodity scenario that's possible but not probable, with a fresh quarterly miss the market hasn't digested." Don't short a silver miner into a potentially extending metals cycle, but don't own it here either.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 16:49:43
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict Align with Opus on overvaluation at $14.78; fair value closer to $9-11 based on potential silver price fluctuations and operational challenges signaled by Q1 2026 losses.

In examining Hecla Mining's recent financial data, what strikes me is the dramatic rise in revenue from $720.2 million in 2023 to $1.42 billion in 2025, a jump of nearly 97%. This growth aligns with the significant increase in silver prices, highlighting Hecla's sensitivity to commodity prices rather than operational improvements. The Q1 2026 results, however, show a concerning reversal with a net loss of $19 million despite revenues remaining robust at $411.4 million, suggesting either a temporary hiccup or a sign of cost pressures, perhaps from operational inefficiencies or increased input costs. The 2025 free cash flow of $310.2 million and operating cash flow of $562.6 million indicate strong cash generation, but the negative net income in Q1 2026 can't be ignored as it might foreshadow future issues if silver prices don't remain elevated.

Opus argues that Hecla is overvalued based on normalized metal assumptions, pegging fair value at $9-11 per share. I concur with this assessment, primarily because the company's high earnings in 2025 seem unsustainable without continued high commodity prices. The AI's analysis points out that while Hecla's current pricing is consistent with other silver producers like Pan American and First Majestic, its P/E of 36x and P/S of 8.8x are high. I agree with Opus here, as these multiples reflect a market pricing in continued high silver prices rather than a stable business model. The suggestion that Hecla is priced for a growth rate that cannot be maintained without a sustained high in silver prices is also valid.

However, I diverge from Opus's dismissal of the synthesis's narrative of "Disconnected from Fundamentals." While Opus rightly notes that Hecla's EV/EBITDA multiple is in line with peers, the broader narrative of a company being priced like a tech stock isn't entirely misplaced given the high P/E and P/S ratios and the market's speculative nature on silver's future. Furthermore, Opus’s counterargument regarding insider transactions being routine does not fully dispel concerns about market sentiment being overly optimistic. The absence of open-market sales doesn't negate the fact that insider moves can still reflect strategic positioning rather than confidence in the current valuation.

A skeptic might argue both analyses overestimate the risks and potential of Hecla's dependency on silver prices. The Q1 loss might be an anomaly, or a short-term reaction to operational adjustments rather than a long-term trend. Additionally, the potential for silver to rise above $40 is not entirely off the table given geopolitical tensions and increasing industrial demand, which could justify higher valuations.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:42:34
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass — revisit sub-$11 7/10
Solid cyclical miner (-5 quality) priced for the boom to last (-68 value) — pass at $14.78 and wait for silver or sentiment to crack.
The cruxWhether today's 43.7% gross margin is a durable re-rating of silver or a cycle peak being capitalized as run-rate — and the math says it's the latter.
Company Quality
-5
Solid
edge √Σ 106 · risk √Σ 111 · conf 6/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-68
Rich
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a coherent story: Lens 1 at -5 says this is an honestly-run, balance-sheet-fine cyclical with no moat and a 4.9% dilution drag, and Lens 2 at -68 says the market is paying a franchise multiple for peak-cycle silver economics. I don't fight that combination. A 'Solid' business at 25–30% above through-cycle fair value, where the bull case is essentially 'silver keeps ripping,' is not a position I want to initiate — that's a commodity bet dressed up as a stock pick, and if I want silver leverage I can express it more cleanly.

Playbook: zero position today, on the watchlist with a hard alert at $11. I get interested with a starter (roughly 0.5% of book) at $11, scale to a full ~1.5–2% position into the $8–9 zone if we get a silver pullback that takes HL down with the tape but the balance sheet stays pristine — that's where the cyclical-trough trade actually pays. I do NOT chase strength here; the only thing that flips me to buying up is structural evidence silver has re-rated (sustained $40+ silver with producer discipline holding), and even then I'd rather pay up for proven quality than reach for HL. Until price or the commodity moves, this is a pass.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
-5 Solid edge √Σ 106 · risk √Σ 111 · conf 6/10

Hecla's 2025 numbers are extraordinary: revenue jumped from $929.9M to $1.42B (+53%), gross margin expanded from 21.3% to 43.7%, operating margin hit 37.7%, and net income swung to $321.7M with $310.2M of FCF. Earnings quality screens clean — OCF/NI of 2.16x, accruals at -5.9% of assets, and an Altman Z of 7.1 indicate the reported profits are backed by cash and the balance sheet is sturdy (net cash $32.6M, no external funding required). The Beneish flag at -1.1 is the kind of false positive you'd expect when a miner's margins inflect violently on commodity prices, not a manipulation signal in isolation.

The trouble is the four-year context: 2022 and 2023 were money-losing years (-$37.3M and -$84.2M net income, negative FCF both years), and 2024 FCF was a token $3.8M. This is a price-taking silver/precious metals producer whose 'high-growth profitable' label is really 'silver-price profitable.' Layer on a 4.9% diluted share CAGR (542M → 656M shares, +21% over four years) with buybacks recovering just 14.1% of SBC, and a large chunk of the per-share benefit from the 2025 windfall is being quietly siphoned to the share count. Insider tape is neutral-to-soft: zero open-market buys, only routine option exercises with tax-withholding and small awards, plus $9.4M of sales over 12 months — nothing screaming conviction at the top.

Durability is fundamentally tied to silver/gold prices and mine-level execution, not a defensible moat. The business is well-run within its category — clean accounting, self-funded, safe Z-score — but it is cyclical, dilutive, and only recently profitable on a sustained basis.

Strengths 3
m75
2025 cash conversion and margins are genuinely strong
OCF/NI 2.16x, FCF $310.2M on $321.7M net income, operating margin 37.7% vs -6.2% just two years prior — earnings are cash-backed, not accrual fiction.
m60
Fortress-grade solvency metrics
Altman Z of 7.1, net cash positive ($32.6M), and self-funding FCF mean survival risk is low even if commodity prices reverse.
m45
Accruals quality is clean
Accruals at -5.9% of assets indicate conservative recognition; nothing in the working-capital pattern suggests channel stuffing or aggressive capitalization.
Concerns 5
m70
Persistent dilution erodes per-share value
Diluted shares grew from 542.2M (2021) to 655.8M (2025), a 4.9% CAGR. Buybacks offset only 14.1% of SBC, so per-share growth lags absolute growth materially.
m70
Highly cyclical earnings base
Net income trajectory: $35.1M → -$37.3M → -$84.2M → $35.8M → $321.7M. FCF was negative in 2022 and 2023. The 2025 result is a commodity-cycle peak, not a steady-state quality signal.
m40
No moat beyond ore bodies and cost position
As a silver/gold miner, Hecla is a price-taker. 'Quality' here is largely a function of mine grades, AISC, and metal prices — not pricing power or recurring economics.
m25
Insider tape leans soft
12-month tape: 0 open-market buys, 7 sales totaling $9.4M. Recent activity is routine awards and option-exercise tax withholding — no insider has put cash in despite the operating boom.
m20
Beneish M at -1.1 flags inspection
Above the -1.78 threshold. Likely a false positive driven by the massive margin and revenue inflection year-over-year, but worth verifying that the gross margin jump from 21.3% to 43.7% is real-price/realized-grade driven rather than reserve/inventory accounting.
This is a competently run, clean-accounting cyclical miner having a great year — not a structurally elite compounder. The 2025 numbers are eye-popping, but I can't extrapolate a 43.7% gross margin from a business that ran at 15.7% two years ago without acknowledging this is commodity leverage, not durable franchise value. The accounting looks honest and the balance sheet is fine, which earns the 'Solid' grade. What keeps me from going higher is the dilution treadmill — 4.9%/yr with token buybacks means shareholders are funding the show through the cycle — and the fact that the 'growth' label rests on one explosive year following two loss years. Good business in its category; not a quality fortress.
Verify before trusting this (7)
  • Decomposition of the 2025 margin expansion: how much is realized silver/gold price vs. volume vs. AISC reduction vs. inventory revaluation?
  • AISC (all-in sustaining cost) trend by mine — is the cost structure structurally lower or just benefiting from price leverage?
  • Reserve/resource life and replacement: is the company replacing reserves or harvesting them?
  • Hedging book and any forward sales that could cap or distort realized prices
  • Composition of 4.9% share growth — what portion is SBC vs. M&A equity issuance vs. ATM offerings?
  • Detail behind the Beneish flag: DSRI, GMI, and TATA components for 2025
  • Capex sustainability: $310M FCF is after what level of sustaining vs. growth capex?
-68 Rich edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 6/10
Price $14.78 vs deserved ~$10–12 through-cycle — roughly 20–30% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $11.00

Hecla is a cyclical silver miner whose gross margin swung from 15.7% to 43.7% on the silver rally. The market cap of ~$9.9B implies investors are capitalizing peak-cycle earnings as if they're durable. On a normalized basis — averaging the boom margin with mid-cycle reality — deserved value sits meaningfully below the current quote. The Company-Quality lens explicitly flagged this is commodity leverage, not franchise value, which means peak EPS deserves a low-to-mid single-digit multiple, not a growth multiple.

Without an e2e fair-value print, I anchor on the structure: silver miners historically trade at wide P/NAV and EV/EBITDA bands tied to the metal price. Buying at $14.78 requires silver to stay near current strength indefinitely — that's the heroic assumption. A sober deserved value, blending current cash flows with a mid-cycle silver deck and recognizing per-share dilution history, lands somewhere in the $10–12 zone. That's a ~15–30% overpay, not a screaming short, but no margin of safety.

High earnings quality (score 2) helps — the reported numbers are believable — but believable peak earnings still shouldn't be extrapolated. Net: fairly-to-richly priced, leaning rich.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Clean earnings quality
Earnings-quality score of 2 means no haircut needed on reported numbers — what you see is real, just not necessarily repeatable.
m20
Silver optionality is real
If silver continues higher into a sustained bull cycle, miner operating leverage is enormous and today's price could look cheap in hindsight — but that's a bet on the commodity, not the stock.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Peak-cycle margins being capitalized
Gross margin jumped from 15.7% to 43.7% on silver strength; market is treating this as a run-rate, not a peak. Normalize and the earnings power is materially lower.
m55
Cyclical business, growth-stock cap
~$9.9B market cap on a silver miner explicitly graded as 'not a structurally elite compounder' implies the market is paying for commodity leverage at a franchise multiple.
m45
No margin of safety to mid-cycle silver
Current price requires silver to hold at or near current levels; a reversion to a mid-cycle deck takes deserved value down ~25–35% before any multiple compression.
I can't call this cheap. At ~$9.9B for a cyclical silver miner riding a margin spike from 15% to 44%, the market is paying me for the boom and asking me to trust it lasts. The business is fine and the books are honest, but deserved value through-cycle is materially below $14.78. I'd want it closer to $11 — call it a 25%+ pullback or a clear sign silver has structurally re-rated — before this becomes interesting on valuation alone. Today: rich, pass.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Realized silver price assumptions in guidance vs spot
  • All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per ounce trend
  • Share count trajectory — historical dilution to fund growth
  • Reserve life and grade trend at Greens Creek and Lucky Friday
  • Hedging book — how much of the uplift is locked in vs spot-exposed
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16