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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 10, 2026
2 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

Levi Strauss & Co.

LEVI NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Manufacturers
San Francisco, CA 94111, United States IPO 2019 levistrauss.com Updated Jun 10, 3:00am
Price
$23.57
Market Cap
$9.3B
Employees
18,700
Beta
1.34
Avg Volume
2,812,963
CEO
Michelle D. Gass
Business Description

Levi Strauss & Co. stands as a prominent global clothing enterprise, actively involved in the conceptualization, promotion, and distribution of an extensive collection of apparel and related accessories. Their comprehensive product line includes denim, casual and formal trousers, athletic wear, tops, shorts, skirts, dresses, jackets, footwear, and various other accessories, all designed to appeal to men, women, and children across the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company markets its offerings under several renowned brands, such as Levi's, Dockers, Signature by Levi Strauss & Co., and Denizen. Furthermore, Levi Strauss & Co. extends its reach by granting licenses for its Levi's and Dockers trademarks to be utilized across an expanded array of product categories, including footwear, belts, small leather goods, outerwear, knitwear, dress shirts, children's apparel, sleepwear, and hosiery. The distribution of its merchandise occurs through a multifaceted approach: via independent retailers like major department stores, specialized boutiques, third-party e-commerce platforms, and franchised outlets dedicated to its brands. Concurrently, the company fosters a direct relationship with consumers through its own network of mainline and clearance stores, proprietary online sales portals, and select in-store concessions situated within larger retail environments. In total, Levi Strauss & Co. directly manages approximately 3,100 brand-specific stores and shop-in-shops. Established in 1853, the firm maintains its corporate headquarters in San Francisco, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 10, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
$23.57
+0.54 (+2.34%)
Day Range
$23.11 – $23.97
52-Week Range
$16.50 – $24.82
50-Day MA
$21.88
200-Day MA
$21.48
Volume
1,616,447.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $25.00
Consensus $27.75
High $33.00
(30 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 393,847,729.00
Float 363,064,590.00
Free Float 92.2%
High free float — 92.2% of shares trade freely, ~7.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:06am (2d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:06am (2d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 10, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
14.85
Stock Price: $23.57
EPS (Diluted): 1.46
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.87
Stock Price: $23.57
Total Equity: $2.28B
Shares: 399,749,260
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.30
Market Cap: $9.28B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Cash: $757.90M
EBITDA: $888.90M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$10.4B
Market Cap: $9.28B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Cash: $757.90M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
61.7%
Gross Profit: $3.88B
Revenue: $6.28B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
10.8%
Operating Income: $677.60M
Revenue: $6.28B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
9.2%
Net Income: $578.10M
Revenue: $6.28B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
28.3%
Net Income: $578.10M
Total Equity: $2.28B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
11.4%
Operating Income: $677.60M
Tax Rate: 20.8%
Equity: $2.28B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Cash: $757.90M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.55
Current Assets: $3.15B
Current Liabilities: $2.03B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.46
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $1.04B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Total Equity: $2.28B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$15.71
Revenue: $6.28B
Shares: 399,749,260
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$5.70
Total Equity: $2.28B
Shares: 399,749,260
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.81
Operating CF: $545.70M
CapEx: -$221.40M
Shares: 399,749,260
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.4%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $23.57
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $578.10M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 10, 2026 3:01am
Compares LEVI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 10, 2026 3:05:39 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:06am (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $5.8B $6.2B $6.2B $6.4B $6.3B
Cost of Revenue $2.4B $2.6B $2.7B $2.5B $2.4B
Gross Profit $3.3B $3.5B $3.5B $3.8B $3.9B
Operating Expenses $2.7B $2.9B $3.2B $3.6B $3.2B
Operating Income $686.2M $646.5M $353.3M $264.1M $677.6M
Net Income $553.5M $569.1M $249.6M $210.6M $578.1M
EBITDA $796.3M $834.2M $476.4M $454.0M $888.9M
EPS $1.38 $1.43 $0.63 $0.53 $1.46
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $810.3M $429.6M $398.8M $690.0M $757.9M
Total Current Assets $2.7B $2.8B $2.6B $2.9B $3.2B
Total Assets $5.9B $6.0B $6.1B $6.4B $6.8B
Current Liabilities $1.9B $2.0B $1.8B $2.0B $2.0B
Long-Term Debt $1.0B $984.5M $1.0B $994.0M $1.0B
Total Liabilities $4.2B $4.1B $4.0B $4.4B $4.6B
Total Equity $1.7B $1.9B $2.0B $2.0B $2.3B
Retained Earnings $1.5B $1.7B $1.8B $1.7B $1.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:06am (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $737.3M $228.1M $435.5M $898.4M $545.7M
Capital Expenditure -$166.9M -$267.1M -$313.6M -$227.5M -$221.4M
Free Cash Flow $570.4M -$39.0M $121.9M $670.9M $324.3M
Acquisitions (net) -$390.9M $0 -$12.1M -$34.4M $217.8M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$85.9M -$175.7M -$8.1M -$90.1M -$150.5M
Net Change in Cash -$687.3M -$380.7M -$30.8M $291.2M $67.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $6.2B
$6.2B – $6.2B
$6.7B
$6.7B – $6.7B
$7.0B
$7.0B – $7.1B
$7.4B
$7.4B – $7.4B
EBITDA $701.8M
$700.7M – $702.9M
$754.3M
$752.0M – $756.5M
$791.2M
$787.8M – $798.0M
$838.2M
$838.2M – $838.2M
Net Income $529.9M
$525.2M – $534.5M
$603.5M
$592.2M – $620.2M
$668.9M
$640.2M – $696.6M
$775.9M
$739.8M – $812.0M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:06am (2d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +7.0% +0.2% +2.9% -1.2%
Gross Profit Growth +6.0% -0.9% +8.5% +1.6%
Operating Income Growth -5.8% -45.4% -25.2% +156.6%
Net Income Growth +2.8% -56.1% -15.6% +174.5%
EBITDA Growth +4.8% -42.9% -4.7% +95.8%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:05am (2d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-11 Peter E. Haas Jr. Family Fund C-Conversion 145,662.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Peter E. Haas Jr. Family Fund C-Conversion 145,662.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Peter E. Haas Jr. Family Fund S-Sale 145,662.00 $24.01 $3.5M
2026-06-11 Haas Margaret E. C-Conversion 47,721.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Haas Margaret E. C-Conversion 47,721.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Haas Margaret E. S-Sale 47,721.00 $24.01 $1.1M
2026-06-11 Haas Robert D. C-Conversion 488,851.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Haas Robert D. C-Conversion 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Haas Robert D. C-Conversion 488,851.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Haas Robert D. C-Conversion 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-10 Haas Robert D. C-Conversion 3,182.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Haas Robert D. S-Sale 488,851.00 $24.11 $11.8M
2026-06-10 Haas Robert D. S-Sale 3,182.00 $24.00 $76,368
2026-06-11 Haas Robert D. C-Conversion 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Haas Robert D. J-Other 361,468.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Haas Robert D. J-Other 361,468.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Haas Robert D. J-Other 419,815.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Haas Robert D. J-Other 591,753.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Haas Robert D. J-Other 591,753.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Haas Robert D. J-Other 419,815.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-04-22 $0.14 2026-04-07 2026-04-22 2026-05-06
2026-02-10 $0.14 2026-01-28 2026-02-10 2026-02-25
2025-10-20 $0.14 2025-10-09 2025-10-20 2025-11-04
2025-07-24 $0.14 2025-07-10 2025-07-24 2025-08-08
2025-04-24 $0.13 2025-04-07 2025-04-24 2025-05-09
2025-02-12 $0.13 2025-01-29 2025-02-12 2025-02-28
2024-10-29 $0.13 2024-10-02 2024-10-29 2024-11-14
2024-08-02 $0.13 2024-06-26 2024-08-02 2024-08-20
2024-05-08 $0.12 2024-04-03 2024-05-09 2024-05-23
2024-02-06 $0.12 2024-01-25 2024-02-07 2024-02-23
2023-10-25 $0.12 2023-10-05 2023-10-26 2023-11-09
2023-08-03 $0.12 2023-07-06 2023-08-04 2023-08-17
2023-05-03 $0.12 2023-04-06 2023-05-04 2023-05-18
2023-02-07 $0.12 2023-01-25 2023-02-08 2023-02-23
2022-11-03 $0.12 2022-10-05 2022-11-04 2022-11-21
2022-07-29 $0.12 2022-07-07 2022-08-01 2022-08-17
2022-05-05 $0.10 2022-04-06 2022-05-06 2022-05-24
2022-02-08 $0.10 2022-01-26 2022-02-09 2022-02-24
2021-10-28 $0.08 2021-10-06 2021-10-29 2021-11-17
2021-07-30 $0.08 2021-07-08 2021-08-02 2021-08-18
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for LEVI.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-10 03:06:16
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fully valued, not grossly overvalued — fair value $18-22 vs $23.57; hold if owned, no edge initiating, and the synthesis $11 target is a DCF artifact not a real downside case.

Looking at the raw numbers first: TTM revenue runs roughly $6.51B (sum of last four quarters: 1.74+1.77+1.54+1.45), up from $6.28B FY25 and $6.36B FY24 — essentially flat for three years. The real story isn't growth, it's margin recovery. FY25 operating income hit $677.6M (10.8% op margin) vs $264.1M (4.2%) in FY24 — a 2.5x jump on flat revenue. Net income $578M vs $211M. That's the entire bull case in one line: SG&A discipline and DTC mix shift restored the operating model to roughly its FY21-22 level ($646-686M op income). The question isn't whether the turnaround happened — it did — it's whether 10.8% op margin is the new normal or a peak.

The synthesis verdict of $11.36 fair value (implying -52% downside) strikes me as too aggressive and likely anchored on a stale or punitive DCF. At $23.57 and TTM EPS in the ~$1.55-1.60 range, the P/E is ~15x; EV/EBITDA at 11.3x is mid-range for branded apparel. ROE 28% and ROIC 11% are legitimately good. A $11 fair value implies ~7x earnings on a brand-led business throwing off $324M FCF (3.5% FCF yield) with a 2.4% dividend. That's pricing in margin reversion AND secular decline AND multiple compression simultaneously. I dissent. The market-forces "neutral" read and the narrative layer's "fragile premium" framing are more honest than the DCF — Levi is fully priced, not 50% overvalued.

That said, the contrarian-to-the-bulls case is real and the prior models underweight it. Recent revenue YoY is -1.2% with FY25 down from FY24; the 52% earnings CAGR is mathematically meaningless because it's bouncing off a depressed 2024 base (Q2/Q3 2024 net margins were 1.3-1.4% — clearly one-time inventory/restructuring charges). Normalize and you get a company that has grown revenue ~2% annually since 2021 ($5.76B → $6.28B = 2.2% CAGR over four years) while op margin oscillated between 4% and 11%. The Q1 FY26 print (10.1% margin on $1.74B) is encouraging but Q2 FY26 already shows margin compression to 8.9% on higher revenue — exactly the pattern you'd expect if tariff costs and promotional intensity are starting to bite. The insider activity is also a red flag the models flagged but didn't quantify: eight J-Other transactions on 2026-06-04 totaling ~3.9M shares is substantial — at $23.57 that's ~$92M. J-Other is ambiguous (could be trust distributions, not open-market sales), but the cluster timing right after the margin-recovery narrative crystallized deserves more skepticism than the models give it.

Where the data is thin: no total debt or total equity figures provided, which makes the EV calculation and the 3.87 P/B unverifiable from the tile alone. Capex of $221M against $545M OCF gives a 40% reinvestment rate that's reasonable but doesn't leave huge room for buybacks alongside the dividend (~$95M annually). Macro headwinds flag matters: apparel is discretionary, tariff exposure on Asian sourcing is real, and consumer cyclical names typically de-rate before fundamentals roll. The "accelerating quarterly trend" signal is misleading — Q1 FY26 was strong but Q2 already softened sequentially in margin terms. I'd anchor fair value at 12-14x normalized earnings of ~$1.50-1.70 = $18-24, putting current price at the top of fair range, not 2x overvalued. The synthesis is directionally right (no upside) but the magnitude is wrong, and that matters because it implies a short thesis the fundamentals don't support.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-10 03:06:29
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I largely agree with Opus but see Levi's as fairly valued at $23.57, not overvalued. I'd peg fair value closer to $20-24, accounting for stable operational performance and brand resilience.

In evaluating Levi Strauss & Co., my analysis of the raw data focuses on the consistent revenue figures juxtaposed with fluctuating profit margins. The revenue of $6.51B over the past TTM shows stability, but not growth, which is critical in a mature market like apparel. The standout metric is the dramatic recovery in net income from $210.6M in 2024 to $578.1M in 2025, driven by operational efficiency rather than top-line growth. The margin recovery from 4.2% to 10.8% highlights significant SG&A cost control and the benefits of a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy. However, the sequential decline in margins from 10.1% to 8.9% in the recent quarter signals potential headwinds, possibly from increased tariffs or promotional pressures.

Regarding Opus's analysis, I agree with the assertion that the $11.36 fair value from the synthesis seems overly pessimistic. Levi's current P/E ratio of ~15x and EV/EBITDA of 11.3x are not indicative of a company in distress, especially with a robust ROE of 28% and a respectable FCF yield. The strong financial metrics suggest that Levi's is not grossly overvalued, as Opus rightly concludes. However, Opus's fair value range of $18-22 seems slightly conservative given the brand's historical resilience and recent financial performance. My valuation would place fair value slightly higher, closer to $20-24, reflecting the stabilized operational performance and brand strength.

Disagreeing with Opus's dismissal of the insider transactions, I believe these deserve more scrutiny. The significant volume of J-Other transactions totaling approximately $92M, even if they are not direct market sales, suggests a strategic shift or distribution that could indicate insider uncertainty about the future. This aligns with my concerns about potential margin pressures and macroeconomic headwinds, such as tariff impacts and consumer spending volatility.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my views underestimate the potential for continued margin expansion through DTC channels and international growth opportunities. They might also point to the possible undervaluation of the brand's cultural and historical significance, which could sustain a premium valuation despite short-term challenges.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-10 03:08:43
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Solid franchise (Q+28) priced for perfection (V-79) — good company, bad entry; I wait.
The cruxWhether the FY2025 margin snap-back (OpM 4.2% → 10.8%) is the new normal or a cyclical peak — the entire $19-to-$24 gap rides on that one assumption.
Company Quality
+28
Solid
edge √Σ 115 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-79
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a coherent story: Lens 1 says this is a clean, self-funding, mildly shrinking-share-count denim franchise (+28, Solid) — exactly the kind of name I'm happy to own, just not at any price. Lens 2 says the tape is already paying for the bull case (-79, Rich): every honest method lands $11–$19, and even crediting the quality premium I get to ~$18-19 deserved, against $23.57 today. That's a 'great brand, wrong entry' setup, not a buy and not a short. The 2023–24 OpM air pocket (4.2%) is too recent for me to underwrite the 10.8% as a new floor, and flat ~2% revenue CAGR means I'm not getting bailed out by growth.

Playbook: zero position here, on the watchlist with real intent. I start a 25-bp starter nibble at $18 (anchored-PE deserved value, also a ~25% pullback), scale to a 75-bp position at $16 (the value lens's 'interesting' line), and go to a full 150–200 bp position below $14 where the composite FV and EPV floor give me genuine margin of safety. What flips me aggressive earlier: two more quarters confirming OpM holding double-digits plus continued GM expansion toward 62%+ — that would let me raise deserved value and meet the price partway. What keeps me sidelined or pushes me to trim if I ever own it: any consumer-discretionary wobble or wholesale destock that reopens the margin air pocket. Not shorting — buybacks and brand are real, and shorting +28 quality names rarely pays.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+28 Solid edge √Σ 115 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10

Levi's is a mature, self-funding consumer brand: FY2025 revenue of $6.28B, gross margin expanded to a multi-year high of 61.7% (from 58.1% in 2021), and operating margin recovered to 10.8% after collapsing to 4.2% in FY2024. Earnings quality looks clean — OCF/NI of 1.74x, accruals at -2.2% of assets, Beneish M of -2.38, and Altman Z of 3.05 all sit firmly in the safe zone. Net income of $578M on $324M FCF in FY2025 is normal for a working-capital-heavy apparel business.

Capital discipline is a genuine positive: diluted shares fell from 409.8M (2021) to 399.7M (2025), a -0.6% CAGR, with buybacks running 150% of SBC and SBC at just 1.3% of revenue — per-share value is being concentrated, not leaked. Liquidity is adequate ($849M cash) but the company carries $190M net debt, so the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion. The biggest quality wart is the FY2023–2024 margin air pocket (OpM 5.7% then 4.2%, FCF swinging from -$39M to +$671M to $324M), which suggests the franchise is still cyclically and inventory-sensitive despite the brand heritage.

The insider tape looks alarming at first glance (11 sells, 0 buys) but is dominated by Haas family trust J-Other transfers and small C-Conversion/S-Sale pairs — estate/trust mechanics on a founding family, not informed selling. Worth noting but not a quality red flag in itself.

Strengths 4
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.74x, accruals -2.2% of assets, Beneish M -2.38, Altman Z 3.05 — no mechanical red flags; reported earnings are backed by cash.
m60
Gross margin expansion
GM climbed from 58.1% (2021) to 61.7% (2025) despite a tough apparel cycle — evidence of pricing power and/or mix improvement in the core denim brand.
m55
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares -0.6% CAGR (409.8M→399.7M), buybacks 150% of SBC, SBC only 1.3% of revenue. Rare in apparel to see net share shrinkage with modest comp dilution.
m40
Self-funding cash generation
$324M FCF in FY2025, $671M in FY2024 — covers dividends/buybacks without tapping external capital.
Concerns 5
m55
Operating margin volatility
OpM collapsed from 11.9% (2021) → 10.5% → 5.7% → 4.2% (2024) before snapping back to 10.8% (2025). For a 'mature brand', this is wide variance and suggests meaningful operating deleverage risk.
m45
Stagnant top line
Revenue $5.76B→$6.28B over 4 years (~2.2% CAGR), nominal — real growth is roughly flat. Mature, not growing.
m35
Net debt position
$849M cash vs. net debt of $190M; balance sheet is workable but not a fortress, leaving less cushion if a cyclical drawdown repeats the 2023–24 margin compression.
m30
FCF lumpiness
FCF swung $570M→-$39M→$122M→$671M→$324M, indicating heavy working-capital sensitivity (inventory builds/draws) typical of wholesale apparel.
m20
Insider tape skewed to selling
11 sells / 0 buys, ~$17.6M, though the large J-Other blocks are Haas family trust transfers (non-economic) and the small S-Sales are paired with C-Conversions — pattern is estate/trust mechanics, not a clear informed-selling signal.
This is a solid, clean, mature franchise — not elite, not fragile. The accounting passes every mechanical test, gross margins are quietly expanding to multi-year highs, and management is genuinely shrinking the share count, which is rare in apparel. What stops me from calling it 'Strong' is the 2023–24 operating margin air pocket (OpM 4.2% is ugly for a brand this storied) and a top line that's basically flat in nominal terms. The brand has pricing power but limited growth, and the business model still flexes hard with inventory cycles. The insider selling looks scary on the headline but reads as Haas family trust mechanics rather than informed dumping. Net: a well-run, decently-moated mature earner — quality is real but the durability of the recovery in 2025 needs another year of proof.
Verify before trusting this (7)
  • What drove the FY2023–24 operating margin collapse to 4.2% — promotional pressure, wholesale destocking, or one-time restructuring?
  • Wholesale vs. DTC mix and whether the 2025 GM of 61.7% is sustainable or boosted by DTC mix shift / lower freight
  • Customer concentration with major wholesale partners (Kohl's, Macy's, Amazon)
  • Inventory days and aging — to confirm the FY2024 FCF surge was a healthy unwind, not a markdown bridge
  • Dual-class share structure and Haas family voting control implications
  • Detail on the 2026-06-04 Robert D. Haas J-Other transactions (estate planning vs. economic disposition)
  • Debt maturity ladder behind the $190M net debt position
-79 Rich edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 6/10
Price $23.57 vs deserved ~$15-19 blended (composite $11.30, anchored-PE ceiling $18.97) — roughly 25-50% above deserved, no margin of safety. attractive below $16.00

The composite fair value sits at $11.30 (signal-adjusted $11.36), implying ~52% downside from $23.57. Even the most generous method — anchored P/E at $18.97 — still sits ~20% below the current price, while DCF ($8.02) and EPV floor ($10.19) suggest the cash-generative reality of a mid-single-digit-margin apparel business is worth far less than the tape. Earnings quality is high, so I don't get to haircut the FV further — the gap is real, not a quality illusion.

The Company-Quality lens calls this 'Solid' (28) — mature, clean, improving gross margins, shrinking share count — which legitimately raises deserved value toward the anchored-PE figure near $19. But $19 is still below $23.57. To justify today's price you have to underwrite a sustained re-rating: DTC mix continuing to lift gross margin, operating margin recovering well past the 4.2% air pocket, and Gen-Z heritage-denim demand persisting through a consumer slowdown. That's the bull narrative priced as fact.

Margin of safety is negative on every method. This isn't an obvious short — the brand is real and buybacks help — but at $23-24 you're buying the renaissance, not the business. Fairly-priced-to-rich, with the asymmetry tilted down.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Quality + buyback support
High earnings quality (score 3) and genuine share-count shrinkage justify a modest premium to the mechanical FV — pushing deserved value toward the anchored-PE $19, but not to $23.57.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
All three methods sit below price
DCF $8.02, EPV $10.19, anchored-PE $18.97 — even the most lenient method is ~20% under $23.57, and the composite implies -52% downside.
m55
Priced for margin recovery as a base case
OpM was 4.2% in the 2023-24 air pocket; today's multiple implicitly assumes a clean snap-back to high-single-digit OpM plus continued GM expansion, which is the bull case, not the expected case.
m45
Narrative premium on DTC + Gen-Z renaissance
Fallen-angel re-rating has already happened; the stock embeds the DTC margin lift and heritage-denim cycle, leaving little room if either fades against fast-fashion competition.
m30
Cyclical apparel doesn't deserve a peak multiple
Top line is roughly flat and the business is consumer-cyclical; paying above the anchored-PE in this part of the cycle leaves no cushion for a discretionary spending wobble.
I can't get excited about LEVI at $23-24. Every honest method I have puts deserved value between $11 and $19, and even crediting the solid quality grade I land at maybe $17-19 — below today's price. It's not a screaming short; the brand and buybacks are real. But there's zero margin of safety and the tape is paying for a margin recovery and a denim cycle that haven't fully shown up in the P&L. I need this closer to $16 before it's interesting, and below $14 before I'd call it cheap.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY guidance for operating margin — does management underwrite a return to 8%+ OpM, and on what timeline?
  • DTC vs wholesale mix trajectory and the gross-margin contribution split
  • Inventory and promotional cadence — any sign of channel stuffing or markdown pressure that would haircut earnings quality
  • Pace and price of buybacks vs SBC dilution; net debt trajectory
  • Same-store/comparable sales by region, especially US wholesale where fast-fashion competition bites hardest
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16