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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 9, 2026
3 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

monday.com Ltd.

MNDY NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
Tel Aviv, 6777506, Israel IPO 2021 monday.com Updated Jun 9, 7:11pm
Price
$83.23
Market Cap
$4.3B
Employees
2,508
Beta
1.23
Avg Volume
1,790,396
CEO
Eran Zinman
Business Description

monday.com Ltd., along with its affiliated entities, designs and provides software solutions for a global market, spanning the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and other international regions. Its flagship offering is Work OS, an intuitive cloud-native visual work operating system constructed from configurable modules. This platform empowers users to assemble bespoke software applications and effective work management tools. The company further supplies dedicated product solutions catering to various functions, including marketing, customer relationship management (CRM), project coordination, and software engineering. Additionally, monday.com delivers comprehensive business development, presales, and customer support services. Its client base is broad, encompassing diverse organizations, educational and governmental institutions, and specific business divisions within larger enterprises. Founded in 2012, the firm was initially known as DaPulse Labs Ltd. before rebranding to monday.com Ltd. in November 2017. It maintains its corporate headquarters in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

Business History
Generated: Jun 9, 2026 7:14pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:11pm (3d ago)
$83.23
-0.53 (-0.63%)
Day Range
$78.95 – $83.42
52-Week Range
$57.50 – $316.98
50-Day MA
$72.61
200-Day MA
$127.36
Volume
1,660,801.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $80.00
Consensus $117.19
High $220.00
(69 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 51,551,468.00
Float 41,245,939.00
Free Float 80.0%
High free float — 80.0% of shares trade freely, ~20% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 9, 2026 7:13pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
33.49
Stock Price: $83.23
EPS (Diluted): 2.31
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
6.09
Stock Price: $83.23
Total Equity: $1.25B
Shares: 53,086,984
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
66.14
Market Cap: $4.29B
Total Debt: $168.77M
Cash: $1.50B
EBITDA: $12.06M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$6.4B
Market Cap: $4.29B
Total Debt: $168.77M
Cash: $1.50B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
89.2%
Gross Profit: $1.10B
Revenue: $1.23B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-0.1%
Operating Income: -$1.75M
Revenue: $1.23B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
9.6%
Net Income: $118.74M
Revenue: $1.23B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
10.7%
Net Income: $118.74M
Total Equity: $1.25B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
0.9%
Operating Income: -$1.75M
Tax Rate: -100.2%
Equity: $1.25B
Total Debt: $168.77M
Cash: $1.50B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.50
Current Assets: $1.79B
Current Liabilities: $714.87M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.14
Short-Term Debt: $25.82M
Long-Term Debt: $142.95M
Total Debt: $168.77M
Total Equity: $1.25B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$23.21
Revenue: $1.23B
Shares: 53,086,984
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$23.49
Total Equity: $1.25B
Shares: 53,086,984
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.90
Operating CF: $333.64M
CapEx: -$20.36M
Shares: 53,086,984
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $83.23
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $118.74M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 9, 2026 7:13pm
Compares MNDY against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 9, 2026 7:17:28 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $308.2M $519.0M $729.7M $972.0M $1.2B
Cost of Revenue $39.0M $66.5M $80.6M $103.7M $133.1M
Gross Profit $269.1M $452.5M $649.1M $868.3M $1.1B
Operating Expenses $395.3M $604.5M $687.6M $889.3M $1.1B
Operating Income -$126.1M -$152.0M -$38.6M -$21.0M -$1.7M
Net Income -$129.3M -$136.9M -$1.9M $32.4M $118.7M
EBITDA -$123.2M -$120.1M $12.8M $58.0M $12.1M
EPS $-3.09 $-2.99 $-0.04 $0.65 $2.31
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:11pm (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $886.8M $885.9M $1.1B $1.4B $1.5B
Total Current Assets $913.5M $923.8M $1.2B $1.5B $1.8B
Total Assets $933.2M $1.0B $1.3B $1.7B $2.1B
Current Liabilities $228.2M $298.2M $416.0M $575.6M $714.9M
Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $142.9M
Total Liabilities $229.8M $359.3M $462.1M $655.3M $859.8M
Total Equity $703.4M $679.7M $813.5M $1.0B $1.2B
Retained Earnings -$445.7M -$582.5M -$584.4M -$552.0M -$433.3M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $16.4M $27.1M $215.4M $311.1M $333.6M
Capital Expenditure -$13.8M -$19.0M -$10.5M -$15.2M -$20.4M
Free Cash Flow $2.6M $8.1M $204.9M $295.8M $313.3M
Acquisitions (net) $129,000 $0 $0 -$6.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 -$135.0M
Net Change in Cash $755.0M $-918,000 $230.2M $295.5M $91.5M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:11pm (3d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $1.7B
$1.7B – $1.7B
$2.0B
$2.0B – $2.0B
$2.3B
$2.3B – $2.4B
$2.3B
$2.3B – $2.4B
EBITDA $662.7M
$654.9M – $678.3M
$771.8M
$771.8M – $771.8M
$888.5M
$879.9M – $917.5M
$883.3M
$874.8M – $912.1M
Net Income $277.0M
$232.8M – $321.1M
$329.2M
$263.7M – $394.6M
$392.0M
$387.1M – $408.7M
$476.2M
$470.2M – $496.4M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +68.4% +40.6% +33.2% +26.7%
Gross Profit Growth +68.1% +43.4% +33.8% +26.6%
Operating Income Growth -20.5% +74.6% +45.5% +91.7%
Net Income Growth -5.9% +98.6% +1,824.7% +266.8%
EBITDA Growth +2.6% +110.7% +353.4% -79.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:17pm (3d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-01 George James Case M-Exempt 2,948.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-01 George James Case M-Exempt 2,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-01 George James Case M-Exempt 5,897.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 George James Case S-Sale 1,773.00 $90.79 $160,966
2026-03-18 HORING JEFF 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 HORING JEFF 707.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Iohan Gili 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Iohan Gili 707.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Faier Ronen 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Faier Ronen 707.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Nawi Shiran 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Nawi Shiran 23,785.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Nawi Shiran 5,329.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Nawi Shiran 8,852.00 $9.38 $83,032
2026-03-18 Nawi Shiran 12,550.00 $211.78 $2.7M
2026-03-18 Nawi Shiran 9,787.00 $120.51 $1.2M
2026-03-18 Mann Roy 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Mann Roy 1,229.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Mann Roy 2,866.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Mann Roy 36,537.00 $211.78 $7.7M
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for MNDY.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-09 19:18:06
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

Independent read first: this is a clean SaaS compounder with no debt, $1.5B cash (35% of market cap), 89% gross margins, and FCF that's gone from negative to $313M in four years. Q1'26 revenue of $351M is +24.4% YoY off Q1'25's $282M, but the more telling number is the sequential cadence: $268→$282→$299→$317→$334→$351M is decelerating on a percentage basis (sequential growth ~5-6% per quarter, down from ~7%). Annual revenue went $519→$730→$972→$1,230M — a 33% '25 print. That's the actual story: 25% forward growth with 25% FCF margins on a $4.3B EV-ex-cash basis. At ~$2.8B EV ex-cash against $313M FCF, you're paying ~9x FCF for a Rule-of-50 SaaS. That is not a premium; that is cheap if the trajectory holds.

The synthesis call of "Reasonable Premium" understates how dislocated this is. A 33x TTM P/E on GAAP earnings is misleading because GAAP net income is whipsawed by SBC and tax items — note Q4'25 NI of $76.7M vs Q3'25 of $13.1M and Q2'25 of $1.6M, which screams discrete items rather than operating volatility (Q1'26 op margin still essentially zero on the annual basis, NI $28M). The right frame is EV/FCF and EV/sales ex-cash: ~9x and ~2.3x respectively. Compare to ASAN (unprofitable, ~3x sales), TEAM (~10x sales), HUBS (~10x sales) — MNDY is trading like the market thinks growth is going to 15% within 18 months. The pre-flight read that the market is pricing deceleration is correct; the synthesis verdict that this is a "reasonable premium" is the part I dissent from. At 25%+ growth and 25% FCF margins, fair multiple is 6-8x sales, implying $130-170/share.

The contrarian case I'd actually take seriously: (1) Q1'26 sequential growth of 5.2% ($334→$351M) is the slowest sequential print in the dataset — if Q2'26 prints ~$365M, you're at 22% YoY and the deceleration narrative becomes the dominant one, and SaaS multiples compress hard in that regime (see ASAN, DOCU, ZM precedents). (2) The 89% gross margin and "platform" framing obscures that monday competes with Atlassian, Asana, Smartsheet, ClickUp, Notion AND increasingly with AI-native agents that could compress workflow-tool TAM. The bear narrative — "best-of-breed in a function, not an OS" — is empirically supported by NRR trends every SaaS analyst tracks (not in this file, which is a real gap). (3) GAAP operating margin of -0.14% in 2025 despite $1.23B revenue means SBC is doing massive work; the $313M FCF includes the SBC addback. On a true economic basis (FCF minus SBC), this company is materially less profitable than the headline suggests. That single adjustment can cut "fair value" by 30-40%.

Data gaps that matter: no NRR/DBNR, no customer count trajectory, no enterprise vs SMB mix, no SBC figure, no debt line (likely zero, but unconfirmed), no equity line, and the insider data is uninterpretable (no insider names, no dollar values, mostly option exercises with one tiny 1,773-share sale — calling this "neutral" is generous; it's actually no-signal). The "Macro Headwinds" and "Below Sector Benchmarks" tags contradict the bullish synthesis without explanation. The Q4'25 NI spike to $76.7M (23% margin) followed by Q1'26 reverting to 8% suggests the TTM P/E is flattered by a one-time item — strip it out and trailing GAAP P/E is closer to 50-60x, which reframes the "33x is cheap" view. I'd want the SBC number before committing capital.

Net: I dissent from "Reasonable Premium" but only halfway toward "Undervalued." The fundamentals support $110-130 fair value if you trust 22-25% forward growth and FCF holds. The sequential deceleration in Q1'26 and the unknown SBC drag are the two things that could break the thesis. At $83, you're being paid to take that risk, but it's not a fat pitch — it's a 30-50% upside trade

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-09 19:18:11
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus on the undervaluation thesis to some extent but peg fair value closer to $100, accounting for growth deceleration and competitive risks not fully considered in their analysis.

My independent analysis of monday.com reveals a nuanced story characterized by strong financial fundamentals but some concerning trends in growth metrics. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth over the years, with a CAGR of nearly 30%, and has turned its financials around, moving from a net loss of $136.9M in 2022 to a net income of $118.7M in 2025. The gross margins remain remarkably high at 89%, and the free cash flow has increased significantly, marking a strong shift toward profitability. However, the sequential revenue growth is showing signs of deceleration, with recent quarters reflecting a slowdown in percentage growth from 7% to around 5-6%, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining its high growth momentum.

In examining the claims made by Claude Opus, I find agreement in several areas. Opus highlights the company's robust cash position and lack of debt, which indeed provides a solid foundation for future investment and stability. The note on the company's high gross margins and the transition to profitability aligns with my findings, indicating strong operational efficiency. I also concur with Opus's assessment that the market is pricing in growth deceleration, as evidenced by the significant price drop from $317 to $83 and the modest P/S multiple of 3.5x. However, where I diverge from Opus is in the valuation outlook. While Opus sees the current EV/FCF and EV/sales ex-cash multiples as indicative of significant undervaluation, I remain cautious due to the sequential growth slowdown and the competitive pressures that could impact future earnings.

Opus contends that the market's narrative of deceleration is correct but underestimates the implied undervaluation. I disagree here, suggesting that the fair value range of $110-130 may be optimistic given the data. The sequential decline in growth rates and potential competitive threats from AI-native agents are significant risks that could further compress multiples. Moreover, the absence of specific metrics such as NRR and SBC figures makes it challenging to assess the true economic profitability accurately. I believe that the "Reasonable Premium" verdict is more appropriate, given these uncertainties.

A careful skeptic might argue that both perspectives overlook the potential impacts of broader macroeconomic factors and sector-specific headwinds, which the analysis flags but does not fully explore. Additionally, the lack of transparency in insider transactions and key customer metrics could suggest hidden vulnerabilities not captured in the financials.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-09 19:19:38
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip, starter only 7/10
Elite SaaS business (quality 100) trading right at fair value (-18) — I love the company, I don't love the entry.
The cruxWhether I get a real drawdown into the $60s, because at $83 the quality is undeniable but the margin of safety isn't.
Company Quality
+100
Strong
edge √Σ 163 · risk √Σ 64 · conf 8/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-18
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 61 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses are telling me exactly what I'd expect from a beloved SaaS name: a 100 quality score (fortress balance sheet, ~89% gross margins, FCF > net income, 41% revenue CAGR) colliding with a -18 valuation score that says the market already knows. At $83 vs a deserved ~$85–90, I'm getting maybe a 5% cushion against deceleration risk, competitive pressure from Asana/Jira/Smartsheet/HubSpot, and a quiet ~4.5%/yr SBC tax on per-share value. That's not enough. The 'attractive below $65' line is the real number — that's where a 20%+ discount opens up and the platform optionality becomes a free call rather than something I'm paying for.

My play: open a quarter-weight starter here (~25% of target, call it 1% of book on a 4% full position) just so I'm on the tape and forced to do the work each quarter — I don't want to be the PM who watched a compounder run from the sidelines waiting for a perfect print. Then I scale: add another quarter in the low-$70s, go to half-weight at $68, and back up the truck toward full weight in the low-$60s. I flip aggressive earlier only if NDR re-accelerates or enterprise mix visibly inflects — that's the platform thesis becoming real instead of optionality. I trim or pause adds if SBC dilution accelerates past 5% or growth prints sub-20% without margin offset. Net-net: high-quality name, fair price, patient hand.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+100 Strong edge √Σ 163 · risk √Σ 64 · conf 8/10

monday.com is a textbook high-quality SaaS compounder by the numbers. Revenue has gone from $308M (2021) to $1.23B (2025) — a ~41% CAGR — with gross margin stable in an elite ~89% band. Operating margin has marched from -40.9% to roughly breakeven (-0.1%) while net income flipped to $118.7M and FCF scaled from $2.6M to $313.3M. That is real operating leverage on a software cost structure, not financial engineering.

The balance sheet is a fortress: $1.67B liquid cash, $1.50B net cash (~39% of market cap), Altman Z 3.9, and FCF that fully self-funds growth. Earnings quality looks clean — FCF ($313M) actually exceeds GAAP net income ($119M), the inverse of the manipulation profile the Beneish flag hints at; the M-score flag is almost certainly an artifact of rapid revenue/asset growth in a scaling SaaS, not real aggressiveness.

The one genuine quality drag is per-share economics. Diluted share count grew from 44.5M to 53.1M (~4.5% CAGR), and buybacks recover only ~33% of SBC, meaning repurchases are partial mop-up rather than capital return. Insider tape is benign — mostly option exercises, awards and tax withholding, with one small $161K sale; no directional signal.

Strengths 4
m90
Fortress balance sheet, fully self-funding
$1.67B liquid cash, $1.50B net cash (~39% of mkt cap), Altman Z 3.9, and $313M FCF — survival risk is effectively zero and growth needs no external capital.
m85
Elite SaaS unit economics with real operating leverage
Gross margin ~89% sustained, operating margin improved from -40.9% (2021) to -0.1% (2025), net income flipped to $118.7M while revenue 4x'd to $1.23B.
m80
Cash earnings exceed GAAP earnings
2025 FCF of $313.3M is ~2.6x net income of $118.7M; that's a high-quality cash conversion profile and the opposite of aggressive accrual-based earnings.
m70
Durable growth trajectory
Revenue compounded ~41%/yr from $308M to $1.23B over four years with margin stability, implying real product-market fit and retention rather than discount-driven growth.
Concerns 3
m55
Persistent dilution erodes per-share value
Diluted shares rose 44.5M → 53.1M (~4.5% CAGR), and buybacks offset only ~33% of SBC — shareholders absorb a meaningful share-count headwind every year.
m25
Beneish M-score flag (-1.08)
Statistically above the -1.78 threshold, but most plausibly driven by rapid revenue and receivables growth typical of a scaling SaaS rather than manipulation, given FCF>NI. Worth monitoring DSO and deferred revenue trends.
m20
GAAP profitability still razor-thin
Operating margin at -0.1% in 2025 means reported profitability is essentially driven by interest income on the cash pile; core ops are just at breakeven on a GAAP basis.
This is a genuinely high-quality business. The combination of ~89% gross margins, 4x revenue growth in four years, FCF that has outrun net income, and a $1.5B net cash pile is what a great SaaS company looks like. The only real blemish on the quality scorecard is dilution: ~4.5% annual share growth with buybacks only partially offsetting SBC means per-share compounding is meaningfully lower than enterprise compounding. The Beneish flag doesn't worry me — cash exceeds earnings, which is the wrong direction for a manipulator. I'd call this Strong, not Fortress, only because GAAP operating profitability is still right at zero and the dilution is a real, ongoing leak. Clean operator, clean books, scaling well.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • SBC as % of revenue and trend — module shows 0%, which is implausible and likely a data error; check 10-K for true SBC intensity
  • Net revenue retention / dollar-based retention disclosure to confirm growth is expansion-driven, not pure new-logo
  • Customer concentration and enterprise vs SMB mix — durability of moat depends on it
  • DSO and deferred revenue trends to confirm Beneish flag is benign scaling, not channel stuffing
  • Buyback authorization size and cadence — whether management intends to neutralize dilution going forward
  • International/geographic exposure given Israeli HQ — any operational risk concentration
-18 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 61 · conf 6/10
Price $83 vs deserved ~$85–90 ex-cash-adjusted — call it a 5% cushion, essentially fair. attractive below $65.00

monday.com at $83.23 (~$4.3B market cap) carries roughly $1.5B in net cash, so the enterprise is being valued near $2.8B against a business growing revenue in the high-20s/low-30s% with ~89% gross margins and positive FCF. On EV/sales terms that's a mid-single-digit multiple — not demanding for a self-funding SaaS at this scale, but also not a steal. The e2e synthesis labels this a 'Reasonable Premium,' which matches my read: deserved value sits roughly in line with the current price, perhaps slightly above given the cash cushion and FCF trajectory.

What's priced in: continued mid-20s% growth, sustained best-of-breed positioning, and gradual FCF margin expansion. What's NOT obviously priced in: the 'visual OS / platform monopoly' bull case — meaning if monday truly becomes a horizontal work platform, there's upside, but that's optionality, not a margin of safety. Offsetting: ~4.5% annual share dilution from SBC quietly taxes per-share value, which I treat as a real haircut to deserved price.

Net: I see maybe a single-digit % gap at best, well inside the noise band. This is the textbook 'good company the market understands.' No edge to press at $83; I'd want a real discount before calling it cheap.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Net cash cushions the multiple
~$1.5B net cash on a $4.3B cap means EV ~$2.8B — the operating business trades at a more defensible multiple than the headline sticker suggests.
m25
FCF > net income provides downside support
Cash generation has outrun GAAP earnings, so a DCF anchored on FCF gives a higher deserved value than P/E optics would imply.
Rich / priced-in 3
m40
Growth decelerating into a crowded field
Bear case of mid-20s% growth against Asana/Jira/HubSpot/Salesforce competition means the premium multiple needs the platform narrative to hold — that's optionality, not a margin of safety.
m35
SBC dilution silently taxes per-share value
~4.5% annual share growth with only partial buyback offset means per-share compounding lags business growth — deserved price per share should be marked down accordingly.
m30
Premium already reflects quality
The market is paying up for 89% gross margins, fortress balance sheet, and durability — the e2e 'Reasonable Premium' read confirms there's no obvious mispricing to harvest.
Fairly valued, full stop. The business is genuinely strong and the balance sheet helps, but at $83 I'm not getting paid to take the deceleration-plus-competition risk, and the SBC drip keeps eating per-share value. I'd need this in the mid-$60s before the math gets interesting — say a 20%+ discount to deserved — or evidence the platform thesis is actually inflecting (NDR re-accelerating, enterprise mix climbing). Otherwise this is a hold-your-fire name.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY guidance for revenue growth and FCF margin — any deceleration below ~25% would meaningfully cut deserved value
  • Net dollar retention trend — bull case dies if NDR drops below ~110%
  • SBC as % of revenue and net dilution rate in latest 10-Q
  • Enterprise (>$50K ARR) customer count growth — the platform thesis lives or dies here
  • Operating margin trajectory ex-SBC vs reported
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16