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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 5, 2026
7 days ago · 92% complete · +3 refreshed

Omada Health

OMDA NASDAQ Categories PDF
Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Information Services
San Francisco, CA 94111, United States IPO 2025 omadahealth.com Updated Jun 12, 9:09pm
Price
$17.14
Market Cap
$1.0B
Employees
849
Beta
2.09
Avg Volume
1,093,651
CEO
Sean Duffy
Business Description

Omada Health is an American virtual health company that delivers evidence-based digital programs designed to manage common chronic ailments, including cardiometabolic, musculoskeletal, and behavioral health conditions, offering continuous support that bridges the gap between in-person medical appointments.

Business History
Generated: Jun 5, 2026 1:15pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 13, 2026 12:08am (just now)
$17.14
-0.59 (-3.33%)
Day Range
$16.97 – $17.79
52-Week Range
$10.28 – $26.92
50-Day MA
$15.39
200-Day MA
$17.38
Volume
671,824.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $18.00
Consensus $23.67
High $32.00
(12 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 59,448,505.00
Float 4,568,914.00
Free Float 7.7%
Very low free float — 7.7% of shares trade freely, ~92.3% held by insiders/institutions
Thinly traded — expect wider bid-ask spreads and sharp price swings on modest volume. Institutional investors may avoid due to liquidity constraints.
Small absolute float (4.6M shares) — even with a decent free float %, volume can be thin. Check average daily volume before sizing a position.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 13, 2026 12:08am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 12:23pm (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 5, 2026 1:15pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
CALC
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-77.91
Stock Price: $17.14
EPS (Diluted): -0.22
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.01
Stock Price: $17.14
Total Equity: $229.68M
Shares: 58,429,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
-603.28
Market Cap: $1.02B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $222.04M
EBITDA: -$4.75M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$700.0M
Market Cap: $1.02B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $222.04M
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
API
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
3.54
Stock Price: $17.14
Revenue: $260.21M
Shares: 58,429,000
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
API
2.69
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
65.7%
Gross Profit: $170.94M
Revenue: $260.21M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-4.6%
Operating Income: -$11.97M
Revenue: $260.21M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
-4.9%
Net Income: -$12.78M
Revenue: $260.21M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
-2.8%
Net Income: -$12.78M
Total Equity: $229.68M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-3.6%
Operating Income: -$11.97M
Tax Rate: 0.0%
Equity: $229.68M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $222.04M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.60
Current Assets: $272.93M
Current Liabilities: $75.73M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $229.68M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$4.45
Revenue: $260.21M
Shares: 58,429,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$3.93
Total Equity: $229.68M
Shares: 58,429,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.29
Operating CF: $18.25M
CapEx: -$1.32M
Shares: 58,429,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $17.14
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$12.78M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 5, 2026 1:15pm
Compares OMDA against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 5, 2026 1:19:08 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 12:23pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $89.2M $122.8M $169.8M $260.2M
Cost of Revenue $46.4M $52.8M $66.9M $89.3M
Gross Profit $42.8M $70.0M $102.9M $170.9M
Operating Expenses $115.1M $136.0M $146.5M $182.9M
Operating Income -$72.4M -$66.0M -$43.7M -$12.0M
Net Income -$72.5M -$67.5M -$47.1M -$12.8M
EBITDA -$64.0M -$58.4M -$37.8M -$4.8M
EPS $-1.30 $-1.21 $-0.85 $-0.22
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 12:23pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $168.1M $115.6M $76.4M $222.0M
Total Current Assets $188.6M $142.9M $113.1M $272.9M
Total Assets $221.8M $175.1M $150.9M $305.4M
Current Liabilities $34.5M $43.8M $54.0M $75.7M
Long-Term Debt $28.9M $29.4M $29.8M $0
Total Liabilities $66.2M $76.2M $86.3M $75.7M
Total Equity $155.6M $98.9M $64.6M $229.7M
Retained Earnings -$329.3M -$396.8M -$444.0M -$456.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 12:23pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$69.0M -$49.7M -$34.2M $18.3M
Capital Expenditure -$2.7M -$2.9M -$3.9M -$1.3M
Free Cash Flow -$71.7M -$52.7M -$38.0M $16.9M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$55.4M -$52.5M -$39.3M $145.6M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 9:09pm (2h ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $392.5M
$388.7M – $396.3M
$467.0M
$466.7M – $467.4M
$505.0M
$497.7M – $514.4M
$577.0M
$568.7M – $587.7M
EBITDA -$140.7M
-$142.0M – -$139.3M
-$167.4M
-$167.5M – -$167.3M
-$181.0M
-$184.4M – -$178.4M
-$206.8M
-$210.7M – -$203.9M
Net Income $12.1M
$11.8M – $12.3M
$40.4M
$39.6M – $41.3M
$0 $0
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 12:23pm (3d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +37.7% +38.3% +53.2%
Gross Profit Growth +63.5% +47.0% +66.2%
Operating Income Growth +8.8% +33.9% +72.6%
Net Income Growth +6.9% +30.2% +72.9%
EBITDA Growth +8.8% +35.2% +87.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 9:09pm (2h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-05 Duffy Sean P. F-InKind 4,422.00 $17.93 $79,286
2026-06-05 Duffy Sean P. G-Gift 9,450.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-05 Cook Steven L. F-InKind 2,010.00 $17.93 $36,039
2026-06-05 Shao Wei-Li F-InKind 1,843.00 $17.93 $33,045
2026-04-08 Shao Wei-Li S-Sale 2,829.00 $12.71 $35,946
2026-04-05 HILLEMAN JERYL L A-Award 1,544.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-05 ROOT JONATHAN D A-Award 882.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-05 Klapstein Julie D A-Award 698.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-05 FETTER TREVOR A-Award 955.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-13 Cook Steven L. S-Sale 1,884.00 $13.94 $26,263
2026-03-05 Gracey Craig A-Award 16,470.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-05 Cook Steven L. A-Award 147,058.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-05 Shao Wei-Li A-Award 264,705.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-05 Duffy Sean P. A-Award 323,529.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-09 Duffy Sean P. S-Sale 3,863.00 $14.32 $55,299
2026-03-09 Duffy Sean P. S-Sale 200.00 $14.89 $2,977
2026-03-05 Shao Wei-Li F-InKind 2,105.00 $13.60 $28,628
2026-03-05 Cook Steven L. F-InKind 2,228.00 $13.60 $30,301
2026-03-05 Duffy Sean P. F-InKind 4,983.00 $13.60 $67,769
2026-01-12 Duffy Sean P. M-Exempt 230,479.00 $2.55 $587,721
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for OMDA.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-05 13:19:48
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Wait for Q2 2026 print — Q1's sequential deceleration to +2.9% breaks the inflection thesis; fair value $13-15 if growth normalizes to 25%, $24+ only if Q2 reaccelerates above $85M. No edge at $18.18.

The raw trajectory here is genuinely striking and I want to lead with what the numbers actually show before grading the models. Quarterly revenue went $41.2M → $45.5M → $48.0M → $55.0M → $61.4M → $68.0M → $75.8M → $78.0M, which is roughly 89% growth over seven quarters with sequential acceleration through Q4 2025 and then a notable deceleration to +2.9% QoQ in Q1 2026. Net margin compressed from -25.9% to -3.8% over the same window, and 2025 delivered $18.3M operating cash flow and $16.9M FCF against a $12.8M GAAP net loss — so the cash conversion is actually better than GAAP, not worse as "Poor Cash Flow Quality" suggests (likely SBC-driven, which is real dilution but not a quality flag in the traditional working-capital-games sense). Gross margin sits at 65.7%, up from 48% in 2022. This is a legitimate inflection, not a manufactured one.

Now the skeptical read. That Q1 2026 sequential print is the single most important number in the file and the models are underweighting it. Going from +11.5% QoQ (Q4) to +2.9% QoQ (Q1) is a violent deceleration, and Q1 swung back to a net loss of $3.0M after a positive Q4. Digital health has Q1 seasonality (employer benefit cycles, enrollment timing), but a 75% sequential growth collapse plus margin reversal is exactly the kind of print that breaks pre-profit-platform narratives. The synthesis verdict of "High Conviction Required" hedges this; the Pre-Flight thesis of "rapidly improving unit economics" was written looking at the 2024→2025 arc and doesn't reckon with Q1 2026. The "decelerating quarterly trend" flag in Secondary Signals is the only model that caught it, and it should be louder.

On valuation, $1.08B market cap on $260M of 2025 revenue is 4.15x P/S, and on a forward run-rate of ~$320M (annualizing Q1) it's ~3.4x. That is not cheap for a business that just printed a -3.8% margin and decelerated to sub-3% sequential growth. The Narrative layer is correct that this is "unanchored" — $222M cash is real and provides downside support (~$3.70/sh in net cash), but the remaining ~$14.50/sh of equity value is paying for the assumption that the Q4 2025 trajectory resumes. The contrarian argument writes itself: Teladoc trades at 1.5x sales after its growth broke, Hims at ~3x with higher growth, and if OMDA's growth has actually stepped down to a 15-25% annualized pace rather than 50%+, fair value compresses toward $11-13 fast. The insider activity (heavy March 2026 awards of 750K+ shares followed by small sales) is normal post-IPO comp vesting, not a signal either way, but the dilution is real.

I dissent modestly from the synthesis. The models collectively lean constructive-with-caveats; I think the caveats deserve top billing. The bull case requires Q2 2026 to reaccelerate above $85M and demonstrate that Q1 was a seasonality artifact — if that prints, the stock re-rates to $24-28 quickly. The bear case is that Q1 was the first honest look at a saturating employer-channel business with a one-time GLP-1 tailwind that's now lapping, and the company settles into 20% growth at breakeven, worth maybe $11-12. At $18.18 the risk/reward is roughly symmetric but the catalyst is entirely binary on the next print. I would not pay 3.4x forward sales for a business whose growth rate just halved in one quarter without seeing the next data point. Net cash floor caps downside around $12-13; story-driven upside caps around $25 absent a true breakout. That's a coin flip, not a high-conviction setup, and the synthesis label "High Conviction Required" essentially means "don't buy this unless you have non-public conviction" — which is the same as saying pass for most readers.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-05 13:19:55
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — at $18.18, Omada is a hold pending Q2 results; fair value sits at $13-15 without clear reacceleration, but the cash cushion and narrative potential keep upside plausible if growth resumes.

Omada Health's financial trajectory reveals a company experiencing rapid revenue growth while battling profitability challenges. The sequential revenue growth from $41.2M in Q2 2024 to $78.0M in Q1 2026 is impressive, representing an 89% increase over seven quarters. This growth is accompanied by a significant narrowing of net margins from -25.9% to -3.8%, indicating improved operational efficiency. However, the Q1 2026 sequential growth of just 2.9% from the previous quarter's 11.5% raises concerns about sustained momentum. The swing back to a net loss of $3.0M after a profitable Q4 2025 also suggests volatility in earnings stability. Omada's gross margin improvement to 65.7% underscores its potential for eventual profitability, but the current negative EBITDA and net margins highlight the ongoing challenges in achieving consistent positive net income.

I align with Opus's emphasis on the critical importance of the Q1 2026 deceleration. Opus states, "That Q1 2026 sequential print is the single most important number," and I concur. The sharp drop in growth rate is indeed a red flag, potentially indicating a deeper issue beyond mere seasonality. Opus's skepticism about the "rapidly improving unit economics" narrative, given the recent financial setback, is well-founded. However, I diverge on the interpretation of Omada's cash flow quality. While Opus acknowledges better cash conversion due to positive operating cash flow, I see the "Poor Cash Flow Quality" flag as indicative of potential underlying issues such as significant stock-based compensation, which can dilute shareholder value over time despite positive cash flow metrics.

Regarding valuation, I agree with Opus's assessment that Omada's pricing at a 4.15x P/S ratio is not inexpensive, especially given the recent growth deceleration and margin challenges. The comparison to Teladoc and Hims is apt, highlighting the risk of a potential valuation compression if Omada's growth rate stabilizes at a lower trajectory. The market's reliance on narrative rather than fundamentals is a concern, as emphasized in the Delvantic AI Findings. However, I believe Opus underestimates the potential for narrative-driven re-rating if Q2 2026 shows a strong rebound, given the sector's propensity for rapid shifts based on sentiment and perceived future potential.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and my analysis overly focus on short-term fluctuations without adequately considering Omada's long-term strategic position in the healthcare information services industry. They might suggest that the company's cash reserves and improving unit economics provide a buffer against temporary setbacks, and that the true value lies in its potential to capitalize on the broader shift towards digital health solutions over the coming years.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-05 18:20:15
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — starter position, scale on proof or pullback 6/10
Quality lens says this is a real, self-funding digital-health compounder at 66/Strong, but with no valuation lens this run I'm anchoring to ~1x sales on $260M revenue at a $1B+ cap and that's already pricing in continued execution — interesting, not urgent.
The cruxWhether the -4.6% op margin keeps compressing toward positive in 2026 without revenue growth decelerating below ~25% — that's the single variable that turns a 'Strong' quality score into a buy or a fade.
Company Quality
+66
Strong
edge √Σ 147 · risk √Σ 81 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-17
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 52 · risk √Σ 70 · conf 5/10
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

I like the business more than I like the setup. The quality work (66, Strong) is doing exactly what I want a Lens-1 to do: it caught a real operating-leverage inflection — gross margin to 65.7%, op margin from -81% to -4.6%, FCF positive a year before GAAP, and almost no dilution doing it. That combination in recent digital-health IPOs is rare; the comp set (TDOC, HIMS-ex, Hinge-private) mostly bought growth with shares. Fortress balance sheet ($222M cash, no debt, 20% of cap) means I'm not underwriting financing risk, just execution risk. Without a Lens-2 score in hand, I'm treating valuation as neutral-to-slightly-rich at $17.93 — sub-$1.1B EV on $260M revenue and a credible path to GAAP breakeven is not expensive, but it's not the screaming bargain that would let me skip the durability question.

Play: I open a starter at 25-33% of target weight here, sized so I'm happy if it drops 30%. I add aggressively in two cases — (1) pullback to $13-14 (roughly 0.8x sales, where the quality score does the heavy lifting on its own), or (2) one more print confirming the trajectory: a quarter with >25% revenue growth and a positive GAAP op line, which would validate moat-via-execution and let me pay up to $22-24 for a full position. I trim or exit if revenue growth decelerates below 20% while op margin stalls negative — that combination would mean the leverage story is topping out before profitability, and the unproven-moat finding from Lens-1 becomes the dominant fact. No options, straight equity; the insider sell tape is too small to act on but it's why I'm not front-loading.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+66 Strong edge √Σ 147 · risk √Σ 81 · conf 7/10

Omada is a pre-profit growth story where the trajectory is doing the talking: revenue scaled from $89M (2022) to $260M (2025), a 43% CAGR, while gross margin expanded from 48% to 65.7% and operating margin compressed from -81% to -4.6%. Net loss narrowed from -$72.5M to -$12.8M and FCF flipped from -$71.7M to +$16.9M in 2025. That is textbook operating leverage in a SaaS-like healthcare model, and it is happening without meaningful dilution — diluted share count went from 55.7M to 58.4M (1.6% CAGR) with SBC only 5% of revenue, which is unusually disciplined for a recently public digital-health name.

The balance sheet is a fortress for a company this size: $222M liquid cash, zero net debt, Altman Z of 7.97, and now self-funding. Earnings quality screens clean (Beneish -2.6, accruals -7.6% of assets — accruals are negative, meaning cash trails reported losses favorably, not the red-flag direction). The OCF/NI of 0.25x flagged by the module is mechanically noisy because NI is still negative; the more meaningful read is that FCF turned positive a full year ahead of GAAP profitability.

What keeps this from 'Fortress' grade: the business has only just crossed breakeven on cash, durability of the moat is unproven (chronic-care digital programs face employer/PBM channel risk and competition from Teladoc/Hinge/Virta), and insider activity is award-heavy with only token open-market sales — informative but not a strong positive signal. One year of positive FCF doesn't yet prove a durable model.

Strengths 4
m85
Operating leverage is real and large
Op margin moved from -81% to -4.6% over three years while revenue went from $89M to $260M. Gross margin expanded 17+ points to 65.7%. This is the signature of a scaling subscription/contract model, not financial engineering.
m80
Fortress liquidity with self-funding inflection
$222M cash, no debt, 20.5% of market cap in cash, Altman Z 7.97. FCF flipped to +$16.9M in 2025 from -$71.7M in 2022. Survival risk is effectively zero and they no longer need capital markets.
m70
Disciplined share count for a recent IPO
Diluted shares grew only 1.6% CAGR (55.7M→58.4M) with SBC at 5% of revenue. Per-share value is being protected, which is rare for pre-profit digital health.
m55
Clean earnings-quality screens
Beneish M -2.6 (well below -1.78 manipulation threshold), accruals -7.6% of assets (conservative direction), no working-capital games evident in the FCF turn.
Concerns 3
m60
Still not GAAP-profitable
Net income remains -$12.8M and operating margin -4.6% in 2025. The trajectory is excellent but the business has not yet proven it can sustain profitability across a full cycle or a growth slowdown.
m45
Moat/durability unproven
Chronic-condition digital health is a contested category (Teladoc/Livongo, Hinge, Virta, Lark). Employer/health-plan channel concentration and renewal economics are not visible in the derived data.
m30
Insider tape leans sell, but small
Recent P/S activity is exclusively small S-sales (Duffy ~$58K, Shao $36K, Cook $26K) against large A-awards. No open-market buying. Not alarming in magnitude but no insider conviction signal either.
This is a legitimately well-run pre-profit growth business — not hype. The operating leverage from -81% to -4.6% op margin while shares barely moved is the real tell; most digital-health IPOs print the opposite chart (growth bought with dilution). Balance sheet is a fortress, earnings quality screens clean, and the FCF inflection arrived early. What I can't confirm from this data is durability — one good year doesn't make a moat, and the competitive set in chronic-care digital health is brutal. I'd grade the business itself Strong, not Fortress, until I see a second year of positive FCF and evidence of pricing power with employer customers.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Customer/employer concentration and net revenue retention disclosed in the 10-K
  • Whether the FCF turn is sustained or one-time helped by working-capital timing (deferred revenue swings)
  • GLP-1 exposure — how much of 2025 revenue growth is GLP-1 companion program vs core diabetes/hypertension
  • Contract renewal rates and pricing trends with PBMs and self-insured employers
  • SBC trajectory in absolute dollars and whether 5% of revenue holds as growth normalizes
  • Any convertible or preferred overhang from pre-IPO rounds not visible in basic share-count math
-17 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 52 · risk √Σ 70 · conf 5/10
Price $17.93 vs deserved ~$16–$19 — inside the band, ~0–10% gap, essentially fair. attractive below $14.00

At $17.93 and a ~$1.08B market cap, Omada is being valued as a scaling digital-health platform that has already turned the operating-leverage corner (op margin -81% → -4.6%). The e2e synthesis flags 'High Conviction Required,' which is the polite way of saying the fair-value methods are noisy because the company isn't profitable yet — DCFs run on assumptions, and multiples on negative EBIT are meaningless. What I can anchor on: a fortress balance sheet (so cash-adjusted EV is meaningfully below the $1.08B cap) and a credible path to breakeven, against an unproven TAM-capture rate in a fragmented buyer market.

Deserved value for a clinically-validated, growing, nearly-breakeven digital-health name with clean earnings quality is plausibly in the $15–$20 zone — roughly where it trades. There is no obvious margin of safety, but there isn't an obvious bubble either. The market is paying for the inflection it can see and discounting the durability question it can't answer. That's a fair fight, not a mispricing.

Cheap signals 3
m35
Cash-rich balance sheet lowers true EV
Quality lens calls the balance sheet a fortress; net cash meaningfully reduces enterprise value below the $1.08B cap, making the operating business cheaper than headline P/S suggests.
m30
Clean earnings quality, no dilution drag
Operating leverage achieved 'while shares barely moved' — rare for digital-health IPOs. Earnings-quality score is clean, so no haircut to deserved value.
m25
Optionality on a real TAM
$3.7T chronic-disease cost pool with clinically-validated product is a fat tail the current price doesn't aggressively underwrite.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Inflection already in the price
The dramatic op-margin improvement (-81% to -4.6%) is the bull case, and at ~$1.08B cap the market is clearly crediting it. Paying for the turn after it's visible removes the asymmetry.
m40
Fair value methods flagged low-conviction
e2e synthesis explicitly says 'High Conviction Required' — translation: no profits means DCF/multiple outputs are assumption-driven. Can't lean on a fair-value print to call it cheap.
m35
Durability not yet earned
Bear case (entrenched EHR incumbents, fragmented buyers with no switching cost, well-funded competitors) is a real overhang on the terminal value that any bullish DCF needs.
I don't see a mispricing here. The business is genuinely better than most of its IPO cohort, but at $17.93 the market has already noticed — the cap is $1.08B for a still-unprofitable company whose fair-value methods the synthesis itself flags as low-conviction. Net cash helps, but it doesn't make this cheap. I'd want it closer to $14 — roughly 20% lower — before the asymmetry tips in my favor. Until then it's a 'watch, don't chase.'
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward revenue guidance and implied growth rate — is the market paying >6x forward sales?
  • Net cash position and quarterly burn to compute true EV and runway
  • Customer concentration and net revenue retention — durability of the book
  • Path to GAAP profitability timeline from management on the next call
  • Any one-off items inflating the recent op-margin improvement
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16