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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 86% complete · +11 refreshed

Range Resources Corporation

RRC NYSE Categories PDF
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Fort Worth, TX 76102, United States IPO 1980 rangeresources.com Updated Jun 7, 3:03pm
Price
$39.10
Market Cap
$9.2B
Employees
565
Beta
0.40
Avg Volume
3,324,914
CEO
Dennis L. Degner
Business Description

Range Resources Corporation operates as an independent natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil company in the United States. The company engages in the exploration, development, and acquisition of natural gas and oil properties. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 1,350 net producing wells and approximately 794,000 net acres under lease located in the Appalachian region of the northeastern United States. It markets and sells natural gas and NGLs to utilities, marketing and midstream companies, and industrial users; petrochemical end users, marketers/traders, and natural gas processors; and oil and condensate to crude oil processors, transporters, and refining and marketing companies. The company was formerly known as Lomak Petroleum, Inc. and changed its name to Range Resources Corporation in 1998. Range Resources Corporation was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:06pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:46pm (5d ago)
$39.10
-1.39 (-3.43%)
Day Range
$39.04 – $40.29
52-Week Range
$32.60 – $48.31
50-Day MA
$42.36
200-Day MA
$38.42
Volume
1,963,119.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $43.00
Consensus $46.86
High $54.00
(57 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 235,622,250.00
Float 232,006,616.00
Free Float 98.5%
High free float — 98.5% of shares trade freely, ~1.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:05pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
10.18
Stock Price: $39.10
EPS (Diluted): 2.76
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.94
Stock Price: $39.10
Total Equity: $4.32B
Shares: 239,789,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
6.69
Market Cap: $9.21B
Total Debt: $1.27B
Cash: $204,000
EBITDA: $1.34B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$9.7B
Market Cap: $9.21B
Total Debt: $1.27B
Cash: $204,000
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
34.1%
Gross Profit: $1.02B
Revenue: $2.99B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
27.9%
Operating Income: $835.63M
Revenue: $2.99B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
22.0%
Net Income: $658.02M
Revenue: $2.99B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
20.9%
Net Income: $658.02M
Total Equity: $4.32B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
11.2%
Operating Income: $835.63M
Tax Rate: 20.9%
Equity: $4.32B
Total Debt: $1.27B
Cash: $204,000
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.67
Current Assets: $444.48M
Current Liabilities: $661.15M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.29
Short-Term Debt: $58.78M
Long-Term Debt: $1.21B
Total Debt: $1.27B
Total Equity: $4.32B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$12.48
Revenue: $2.99B
Shares: 239,789,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$18.01
Total Equity: $4.32B
Shares: 239,789,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.46
Operating CF: $1.17B
CapEx: -$581.49M
Shares: 239,789,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $39.10
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $658.02M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:05pm
Compares RRC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:49:02 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.6B $5.3B $2.5B $2.3B $3.0B
Cost of Revenue $2.0B $2.1B $1.8B $1.8B $2.0B
Gross Profit $1.6B $3.2B $778.1M $574.8M $1.0B
Operating Expenses $222.6M $230.2M $215.0M $220.6M $184.6M
Operating Income $1.4B $3.0B $563.1M $354.1M $835.6M
Net Income $411.8M $1.2B $871.1M $266.3M $658.0M
EBITDA $993.9M $1.9B $1.6B $727.7M $1.3B
EPS $1.65 $4.79 $3.61 $1.10 $2.76
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:06pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $214.4M $207,000 $212.0M $304.5M $204,000
Total Current Assets $736.7M $539.6M $870.1M $721.5M $444.5M
Total Assets $7.4B $7.3B $7.2B $7.3B $7.4B
Current Liabilities $1.2B $1.0B $583.1M $1.3B $661.2M
Long-Term Debt $2.7B $1.9B $1.8B $1.1B $1.2B
Total Liabilities $5.4B $4.4B $3.4B $3.4B $3.1B
Total Equity $2.1B $2.9B $3.8B $3.9B $4.3B
Retained Earnings -$3.6B -$2.5B -$1.7B -$1.5B -$909.2M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $792.9M $1.9B $977.9M $944.5M $1.2B
Capital Expenditure -$417.4M -$487.4M -$606.2M -$628.6M -$581.5M
Free Cash Flow $375.5M $1.4B $371.7M $315.9M $589.8M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $518,000 $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 -$399.7M -$19.0M -$65.3M -$230.6M
Net Change in Cash $214.0M -$214.2M $211.8M $92.5M -$304.3M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:03pm (5d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $3.8B
$3.6B – $4.1B
$4.0B
$3.9B – $4.0B
$4.6B
$4.2B – $5.0B
$4.1B
$3.8B – $4.5B
EBITDA $1.5B
$1.4B – $1.6B
$1.6B
$1.6B – $1.6B
$1.9B
$1.7B – $2.0B
$1.7B
$1.5B – $1.8B
Net Income $1.0B
$923.7M – $1.4B
$1.1B
$776.9M – $1.8B
$1.9B
$1.7B – $2.1B
$1.3B
$1.2B – $1.4B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +48.9% -52.3% -7.6% +27.6%
Gross Profit Growth +101.6% -75.9% -26.1% +77.5%
Operating Income Growth +117.5% -81.2% -37.1% +136.0%
Net Income Growth +187.4% -26.4% -69.4% +147.1%
EBITDA Growth +94.4% -18.5% -53.8% +83.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-14 Cline Brenda A J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-13 Cline Brenda A A-Award 4,967.00 $41.27 $205,010
2026-05-14 Cline Brenda A J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-14 Spiller Reginal J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-13 Spiller Reginal A-Award 4,967.00 $41.27 $205,010
2026-05-14 Spiller Reginal J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-14 Maxwell Greg G J-Other 7,182.00 $41.49 $297,981
2026-05-13 Maxwell Greg G A-Award 6,784.00 $41.27 $280,006
2026-05-14 Maxwell Greg G J-Other 7,182.00 $41.49 $297,981
2026-05-14 Kendall Christian S J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-13 Kendall Christian S A-Award 4,967.00 $41.27 $205,010
2026-05-14 Kendall Christian S J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-14 Griffie Charles G. J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-13 Griffie Charles G. A-Award 4,967.00 $41.27 $205,010
2026-05-14 Griffie Charles G. J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-14 DORMAN MARGARET K J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-05-13 DORMAN MARGARET K A-Award 4,967.00 $41.27 $205,010
2026-05-14 DORMAN MARGARET K J-Other 5,258.00 $41.49 $218,154
2026-04-07 Cline Brenda A S-Sale 7,000.00 $44.40 $310,832
2026-03-27 Degner Dennis A-Award 76,334.00 $47.65 $3.6M
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:03pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-12 $0.10 2026-05-29 2026-06-12 2026-06-26
2026-03-13 $0.10 2026-02-24 2026-03-13 2026-03-27
2025-12-12 $0.09 2025-11-28 2025-12-12 2025-12-26
2025-09-12 $0.09 2025-08-29 2025-09-12 2025-09-26
2025-06-13 $0.09 2025-05-30 2025-06-13 2025-06-27
2025-03-14 $0.09 2025-02-28 2025-03-14 2025-03-28
2024-12-13 $0.08 2024-11-29 2024-12-13 2024-12-27
2024-09-13 $0.08 2024-08-30 2024-09-13 2024-09-27
2024-06-14 $0.08 2024-05-31 2024-06-14 2024-06-28
2024-03-14 $0.08 2024-03-01 2024-03-15 2024-03-29
2023-12-14 $0.08 2023-12-01 2023-12-15 2023-12-29
2023-09-14 $0.08 2023-08-31 2023-09-15 2023-09-29
2023-06-15 $0.08 2023-05-31 2023-06-16 2023-06-30
2023-03-14 $0.08 2023-03-01 2023-03-15 2023-03-31
2022-12-14 $0.08 2022-12-01 2022-12-15 2022-12-30
2022-09-14 $0.08 2022-08-30 2022-09-15 2022-09-30
2019-12-12 $0.02 2019-12-02 2019-12-13 2019-12-30
2019-09-12 $0.02 2019-08-30 2019-09-13 2019-09-30
2019-06-13 $0.02 2019-05-31 2019-06-14 2019-06-28
2019-03-14 $0.02 2019-03-01 2019-03-15 2019-03-29
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for RRC.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 16:49:40
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Undervalued on improving trajectory — fair value $48-52 vs $39 spot; dissent from "sell into strength" call, starter position warranted with LNG ramp as catalyst, trim if Henry Hub breaks $2.75.

The raw numbers tell a more bullish near-term story than the synthesis allows. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.03B with $341.6M net income (33% margin) is the strongest print in the series, and it's not a one-off — the prior four quarters show margins of 22.7%, 22%, 34%, 11.5%, with revenue stair-stepping from $510M (Q2'24) to $1.03B (Q1'26), a 102% increase in seven quarters. Full-year 2025 revenue of $2.99B (+27% YoY) with op margin expanding from 15% to 28% and FCF of $590M against a $9.2B market cap implies a ~6.4% FCF yield on trailing numbers, and the Q1'26 run-rate suggests 2026 FCF could push $900M-$1.0B if Henry Hub stays north of $3.50. That is not a "value trap" footprint — that is operating leverage working in the producer's favor.

Where I push back on the prior models: the "Market Headwinds / sell into strength" call from Market Forces is doing pattern-matching on commodity-cyclical fade, not on what's actually in the trajectory. The synthesis frames $39 as pricing in a "Goldilocks" outcome, but 10.2x TTM P/E and 6.7x EV/EBITDA for a low-cost Marcellus operator with structural LNG demand tailwinds (Plaquemines ramping, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Golden Pass in 2026) is not a premium multiple — it's a mid-cycle multiple at a moment when the forward gas curve is in contango through 2027. The narrative-economics layer correctly flags fragility, but "fragile narrative" plus "improving fundamentals" plus "cheap multiple" is closer to asymmetric upside than to a sell. The bear case requires a gas price reversion the strip doesn't currently support.

The contrarian case against me: Range's 2022 comparison is brutal — $5.33B revenue and $2.99B operating income that year vs. $2.99B/$836M in 2025 means current "strength" is still less than 30% of peak earnings power, and the share count/buyback story doesn't fully compensate. Insider activity is all awards and J-Other (likely tax withholding on vested awards) — zero open-market buying, which for a stock the C-suite presumably believes is undervalued at 10x P/E is a tell. The balance sheet data is missing (no debt, no equity figures populated), which is a genuine gap — Range historically carried $1.5-2B net debt, and without confirming current leverage I can't fully underwrite the FCF yield. Current ratio of 0.67 is consistent with a working-capital-light producer but worth verifying. Also: Q3'25 margin of 22% vs Q2'25's 34% shows the quarter-to-quarter volatility is real; one warm winter and the Q1'26 print becomes the anomaly, not the new baseline.

I dissent from "Market Headwinds" and from the synthesis's implied caution. The data supports a constructive view: revenue accelerating (Q1'26 +21% YoY), margins expanding, FCF compounding 26%, and the multiple sitting at 10x earnings / 6.7x EBITDA on numbers that are still mid-cycle, not peak. The narrative layer's "fragile" tag is correct but priced in — at $39 you're not paying for the bull story, you're paying for the bear story and getting optionality on LNG. Fair value on 2026E FCF of ~$850M at a 7% yield (appropriate for cyclical commodity producer) is ~$12B equity or ~$51/share; on 8x EV/EBITDA mid-cycle, similar. The catalyst path is concrete and dated (LNG capacity additions through 2026-2027), which is more than most "value" setups offer. The risk is a warm winter + recession double-hit that pushes Henry Hub below $2.75, which would compress Q3-Q4 2026 margins back toward the 8-11% range seen in early 2024 — a real but not base-case scenario.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 16:49:46
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I cautiously diverge from Opus's "undervalued" view. The current price of $39 reflects the risks of a cyclical commodity producer reliant on stable gas prices and LNG demand. Fair value closer to $42 acknowledges recent growth but remains wary of underlying volatility.

Range Resources Corporation presents a compelling yet complex investment case when analyzing its recent performance metrics. The quarterly revenue growth, with a significant jump to $1.03 billion in Q1 2026 and a net income of $341.6 million (a 33% margin), is impressive and suggests strong operational leverage. This pattern of revenue and profit growth, from $510 million in Q2 2024 to over $1 billion in Q1 2026, indicates an upward trajectory that highlights the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions. However, the volatility seen in quarterly margins—ranging from 5.6% to 34%—underscores the inherent risks associated with commodity-driven businesses. The annual figures reveal a solid recovery from 2024, with substantial improvements in operating and net income, but 2022's peak performance remains a benchmark that the current figures have yet to match.

Opus argues that Range Resources is undervalued, citing the company's recent revenue growth and improving margins as evidence of an "improving trajectory." I agree with Opus on the positive implications of the Q1 2026 results and the potential for further gains, especially with the LNG export demand potentially driving future growth. However, I am more cautious about labeling the company as undervalued. The narrative of "sell into strength" suggested by the Market Forces is not entirely without merit. The cyclical nature of the energy market, particularly natural gas, does introduce risks that are not fully mitigated by current performances or future projections. The company's reliance on favorable gas prices and the expectation of continued LNG demand could be disrupted by macroeconomic factors such as a global recession or rapid shifts in energy policy favoring renewables.

I also diverge from Opus's dismissal of the "Market Headwinds" call. While the current valuation multiples—10.2x TTM P/E and 6.7x EV/EBITDA—do not suggest a premium, they reflect the market's cautious optimism about the company's future amidst potential volatility. The absence of debt and equity figures in the balance sheet data is a significant oversight, as understanding the company's leverage is crucial for assessing its financial health and risk profile. Additionally, the insider activity being neutral with no open-market purchases raises questions about the internal confidence in the stock's undervaluation.

A careful skeptic would argue that despite the recent positive trends, Range Resources remains vulnerable to external shocks. The historical peak in 2022 and the inability to reach those heights again highlight the fragility of its current growth story. The lack of insider buying might suggest that the management is not entirely convinced of the stock's undervaluation, and the missing balance sheet details could obscure potential liabilities that may affect future cash flows. Additionally, the company's heavy reliance on natural gas prices and LNG export demand could backfire if market conditions shift unfavorably.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:48:02
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Solid Appalachian gas operator (+22 quality) trading right on top of fair value (-11), so the play is patience, not participation.
The cruxGas-price beta against $1.27B net debt means the entry price does all the work — and $39 isn't that price.
Company Quality
+22
Solid
edge √Σ 109 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 6/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-11
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 29 · risk √Σ 40 · conf 5/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses don't fight here, they confirm the verdict: this is a genuinely well-run commodity business (+22, real FCF, actual buybacks shrinking the float) priced exactly like a well-run commodity business (-11, mid-band, no margin of safety). I respect the operator — clean cash conversion, ~20% FCF margin, net share shrinker in a sector that habitually dilutes — but I'm not paying full freight for a name whose operating margin can go from 56% to 15% on a Henry Hub move while sitting on $1.27B of net debt and $204K of actual cash. At $39.10 the market is already underwriting a healthy mid-cycle gas strip; I'd be paying for the LNG thesis, not getting it for free.

Playbook: zero position today. My line in the sand is $32 — that's where the FCF yield, buyback math, and quality score start compounding in my favor instead of just defending the price. I'd open a 1% starter at $33–34 on a gas-driven flush, scale to a 3% core down to $28, and reserve a 4–5% full weight only if we get a panic print into the mid-$20s with the business unchanged. On the upside, I'm a buyer of nothing above $40 and an active passer above $44 — that's the zone where the market is paying me to wait. Catalyst that flips me earlier: a structural step-up in the gas strip (LNG export pull-through actually showing in realized prices) combined with continued buyback execution. Until then, this is a watchlist name with a price alert, not a position.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+22 Solid edge √Σ 109 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 6/10

Range Resources is a mature Appalachian natural gas E&P that generates real cash — $589.8M FCF in 2025 on $2.99B revenue (~20% FCF margin), OCF/NI of 1.99x, and negative accruals (-6.4% of assets) all point to clean earnings conversion. The company is a net buyer of its own stock (diluted shares down from 249.3M in 2021 to 239.8M in 2025, buyback/SBC ratio 178%), and SBC is a modest 1.6% of revenue. That's a respectable capital-allocation profile for the sector.

The business itself, though, is unmistakably commodity-exposed: revenue swung from $5.33B (2022) to $2.54B (2023) to $2.99B (2025), with operating margins collapsing from 56.1% to 15.1% before recovering to 27.9%. Net income similarly whipsawed from $1.18B → $266M → $658M. This is gas-price beta, not operating decay, but it means 'earnings power' is a moving target. Net debt of $1.27B against $204K (!) of liquid cash and $58.8M short-term debt means the balance sheet is functional but not a cushion — Altman Z of 2.35 sits in the grey zone.

The Beneish M of 29.73 looks alarming on its face but, combined with OCF/NI of 1.99x and negative accruals, almost certainly reflects the large commodity-driven swings in margins and asset turnover rather than manipulation — the M-score is notoriously noisy for cyclical E&Ps. Insider tape is non-directional: award grants (A) immediately followed by J-Other entries of identical size, almost certainly tax/withholding mechanics around vesting, with zero open-market buys or sells. No signal either way.

Strengths 4
m70
Genuine FCF generator
$589.8M FCF in 2025 on $2.99B revenue (~20% margin); FCF positive every year shown ($375M, $1.38B, $372M, $316M, $590M). Self-funding without external capital.
m60
Per-share value protected
Diluted share count fell from 249.3M (2021) to 239.8M (2025), a -1% CAGR. Buyback spend is 1.78x SBC — net shrinker, rare discipline in E&P.
m55
Clean cash conversion
OCF/NI 1.99x, accruals -6.4% of assets — reported earnings are backed by (or exceeded by) cash. No accrual-quality red flag despite the headline Beneish number.
m20
Insider tape is non-directional, not negative
All recent activity is A-Award grants paired with same-day J-Other (likely tax withholding/disposal mechanics). Zero open-market P or S transactions — no insider conviction signal in either direction.
Concerns 3
m65
Commodity-driven earnings volatility
Operating margin oscillated 38% → 56% → 22% → 15% → 28% in five years; net income from $1.18B to $266M to $658M. Quality of earnings is real but the level is unpredictable — this is gas-price beta, not a moat.
m50
Balance sheet is a constraint, not cushion
Net debt $1.27B, liquid cash just $204K, short-term debt $58.8M exceeds cash. Altman Z 2.35 (grey). Survivable given FCF, but leaves no margin for a sustained gas-price trough.
m30
Beneish M-score 29.73 flag
Far above the -1.78 threshold. Likely a false positive driven by huge YoY swings in gross margin and asset turnover in a cyclical E&P, but worth noting given the size of the deviation.
This is a competently run Appalachian gas producer — clean cash conversion, real FCF, and genuine buyback discipline that shrinks the share count, which is unusual for E&P. But you cannot call a business 'great' when its operating margin halves and then halves again on commodity moves it doesn't control, and when 'liquid cash' is literally $204K against $1.27B of net debt. The Beneish flag doesn't worry me given the negative accruals and 2x OCF/NI; the cyclicality does. It's a Solid business — well-managed within the constraints of being a price-taker on a volatile commodity — not a fortress, not fragile.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Hedging book — % of 2025/2026 gas production hedged and at what strikes; this drives whether the FCF profile is durable through a price downcycle
  • Debt maturity ladder and covenant structure on the $1.27B net debt position
  • Reserve life (R/P ratio) and PV-10 of proved reserves to assess long-term resource base
  • Confirm the J-Other insider codes around 5/13–5/14 are tax-withholding or net-settlement against the same-day A-Awards (typical pattern)
  • Capex trajectory and maintenance vs. growth capex split — is the $590M FCF sustainable or a function of underinvestment?
  • Drivers of the gross margin swing 60.5% → 24.5% → 34.1% — pure realized price, or mix/hedge gains rolling off?
-11 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 29 · risk √Σ 40 · conf 5/10
Price $39.10 vs deserved ~$34–$44 band — within ~10% of midpoint, essentially fair with no margin of safety. attractive below $32.00

Without an e2e fair-value composite to lean on, I have to back into deserved value from the business itself. RRC is a ~$9.2B market cap Appalachian gas E&P with real FCF, a shrinking share count, and ~$1.27B net debt. At $39.10, the enterprise is being valued around $10.5B. For a commodity-levered gas producer where operating margin can halve on Henry Hub moves, that's a reasonable — not generous, not punitive — multiple. The market appears to be pricing in a normalized gas strip somewhere in the mid-$3s/MMBtu with continued buyback discipline. That's not heroic.

The quality lens grades the business 'Solid' (22) — better-than-average capital discipline supports a deserved value modestly above a generic E&P comp, but the commodity exposure and net debt cap how far you can stretch. Earnings quality is good, so no haircut. Net: deserved value sits in a wide band around the current price, maybe $34–$44. $39.10 is mid-band. There's no margin of safety here, and equally no obvious overpayment. This is the boring, correct 'fairly valued' answer.

To get genuinely interested, I'd want either a gas-price-driven drawdown to the low-$30s (where FCF yield expands and buybacks compound faster) or evidence that LNG-driven Henry Hub strength is structural rather than cyclical. Neither is in hand today.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Buyback discipline shrinks the float
Genuine share count reduction (rare among E&Ps) means per-share deserved value compounds even at flat EV — a modest tailwind versus peers who issue.
m15
Clean earnings quality
Good Earnings Quality signal means no haircut to reported FCF — what you see is roughly what you get, which supports the deserved value rather than discounting it.
Rich / priced-in 2
m35
No margin of safety at spot
At $39.10 and ~$10.5B EV, RRC is priced as if mid-cycle gas holds. For a producer whose op margin halves on commodity swings, paying full freight leaves zero cushion.
m20
Net debt vs trivial cash
$1.27B net debt against $204K of liquid cash means equity holders are levered to gas prices; deserved equity value compresses faster than EV in a downturn.
Fairly valued. I don't see a gap to underwrite here — $39 is roughly what a disciplined-but-commodity-levered Appalachian gas producer with $1.27B net debt deserves. I'd need it in the low-$30s before the buyback math and FCF yield get interesting enough to overcome the commodity risk. Above $44 it starts looking like the market is pricing structural LNG-driven gas strength, which I'm not willing to underwrite at full price.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Latest realized gas price and hedge book — how much of 2025/2026 production is locked in and at what strike
  • FCF guidance at strip pricing and buyback pace vs authorization remaining
  • Net debt trajectory and any refinancing windows
  • Unit cost trends (LOE, G&A per Mcfe) to confirm the discipline narrative
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16