Business Description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. provides satellite radio services on a subscription fee basis in the United States. It broadcasts music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic, and weather channels, including various music genres, such as rock, pop and hip-hop, country, dance, jazz, Latin, and classical; live play-by-play sports from various leagues and colleges; various talk and entertainment channels for a range of audiences; national, international, and financial news; and limited run channels. The company also provides streaming service that includes a range of music and non-music channels, and podcasts, as well as channels that are not available on its satellite radio service; and offers applications to allow consumers to access its streaming service on smartphones, tablets, computers, home devices, and other consumer electronic equipment, as well as connected vehicle services. In addition, it distributes satellite radios through automakers and retailers, as well as its website. Further, the company provides location-based services through two-way wireless connectivity, including safety, security, convenience, remote vehicles diagnostic, maintenance and data, and stolen or parked vehicle locator services. Additionally, it offers satellite television services, which offer music channels on the DISH Network satellite television service as a programming package; Travel Link, a suite of data services that include graphical weather, fuel prices, sports schedule and scores, and movie listings; and real-time traffic and weather services. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corporation.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:50pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.38
Total Equity: $11.56B
Shares: 357,000,000
Total Debt: $9.71B
Cash: $94.00M
EBITDA: $2.10B
Total Debt: $9.71B
Cash: $94.00M
Revenue: $8.56B
Revenue: $8.56B
Revenue: $8.56B
Total Equity: $11.56B
Tax Rate: 23.8%
Equity: $11.56B
Total Debt: $9.71B
Cash: $94.00M
Current Liabilities: $3.65B
Long-Term Debt: $8.65B
Total Debt: $9.71B
Total Equity: $11.56B
Shares: 357,000,000
Shares: 357,000,000
CapEx: -$653.00M
Shares: 357,000,000
Stock Price: $27.01
Net Income: $805.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:53pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.7B | $9.0B | $9.0B | $8.7B | $8.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.3B | $4.5B | $4.6B | $4.5B | $4.5B |
| Gross Profit | $4.4B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $4.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.4B | $5.7B | $2.6B |
| Operating Income | $2.0B | $2.0B | $1.9B | -$1.5B | $1.5B |
| Net Income | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.3B | -$1.7B | $805.0M |
| EBITDA | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.5B | -$747.0M | $2.1B |
| EPS | $3.20 | $3.10 | $3.26 | $-4.93 | $2.38 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:50pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $191.0M | $57.0M | $306.0M | $162.0M | $94.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.2B | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Total Assets | $10.3B | $10.0B | $30.1B | $27.5B | $27.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.0B | $3.0B | $4.0B | $2.7B | $3.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | $8.8B | $9.3B | $10.1B | $10.3B | $8.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $12.9B | $13.4B | $17.0B | $16.4B | $15.7B |
| Total Equity | -$2.6B | -$3.4B | $10.1B | $11.1B | $11.6B |
| Retained Earnings | -$2.6B | -$3.4B | $15.4B | $11.1B | $11.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:53pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.0B | $2.0B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$388.0M | -$426.0M | -$650.0M | -$728.0M | -$653.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.2B | $1.0B | $1.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$14.0M | -$121.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.5B | -$647.0M | -$274.0M | -$6.0M | -$136.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $116.0M | -$134.0M | $249.0M | -$145.0M | -$68.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$8.7B $8.6B – $9.1B
|
$8.8B $8.8B – $8.8B
|
$9.5B $9.4B – $9.7B
|
$10.1B $10.1B – $10.4B
|
| EBITDA |
$1.8B $1.8B – $1.9B
|
$1.8B $1.8B – $1.8B
|
$1.9B $1.9B – $2.0B
|
$2.1B $2.1B – $2.1B
|
| Net Income |
$1.3B $1.2B – $1.4B
|
$1.1B $1.1B – $1.5B
|
$1.5B $1.4B – $1.5B
|
$1.6B $1.6B – $1.7B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:53pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +3.5% | -0.6% | -2.8% | -1.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +2.7% | -3.0% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +1.0% | -4.4% | -178.0% | +197.0% |
| Net Income Growth | -7.7% | +3.7% | -232.4% | +148.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | +3.5% | -2.8% | -129.4% | +381.7% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:51pm (5d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 1,037,199.00 | $21.63 | $22.4M |
| 2025-08-01 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 1,930,000.00 | $21.02 | $40.6M |
| 2025-07-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 85,389.00 | $21.43 | $1.8M |
| 2025-07-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 1,977,837.00 | $21.04 | $41.6M |
| 2025-02-03 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 283,899.00 | $24.05 | $6.8M |
| 2025-02-03 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 433,079.00 | $23.49 | $10.2M |
| 2025-01-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 840,000.00 | $23.62 | $19.8M |
| 2025-01-30 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 751,141.00 | $22.79 | $17.1M |
| 2024-12-19 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 31,326.00 | $21.52 | $674,104 |
| 2024-12-19 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 2,038,051.00 | $20.85 | $42.5M |
| 2024-12-18 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 538,940.00 | $22.49 | $12.1M |
| 2024-12-18 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 915,527.00 | $21.94 | $20.1M |
| 2024-12-17 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 1,440,000.00 | $22.13 | $31.9M |
| 2024-10-31 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 679,207.00 | $26.59 | $18.1M |
| 2024-10-30 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 925,205.00 | $27.44 | $25.4M |
| 2024-10-29 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 623,527.00 | $27.65 | $17.2M |
| 2024-10-18 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 175,569.00 | $27.43 | $4.8M |
| 2024-10-17 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 1,040,000.00 | $27.01 | $28.1M |
| 2024-10-16 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 342,133.00 | $26.99 | $9.2M |
| 2024-10-11 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | P-Purchase | 1,259,259.00 | $24.95 | $31.4M |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:47pm (5d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.27 | 2026-04-23 | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-27 |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.27 | 2026-01-29 | 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-27 |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.27 | 2025-10-22 | 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-21 |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.27 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-27 |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.27 | 2025-04-16 | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-28 |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.27 | 2025-01-22 | 2025-02-07 | 2025-02-25 |
| 2024-11-05 | $0.27 | 2024-10-22 | 2024-11-05 | 2024-11-21 |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.03 | 2024-07-24 | 2024-08-09 | 2024-08-26 |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.03 | 2024-04-25 | 2024-05-10 | 2024-05-29 |
| 2024-02-08 | $0.03 | 2024-01-24 | 2024-02-09 | 2024-02-23 |
| 2023-11-06 | $0.03 | 2023-10-25 | 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-29 |
| 2023-08-07 | $0.02 | 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-08 | 2023-08-30 |
| 2023-05-04 | $0.02 | 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-05 | 2023-05-24 |
| 2023-02-08 | $0.02 | 2023-01-25 | 2023-02-09 | 2023-02-24 |
| 2022-11-09 | $0.02 | 2022-11-01 | 2022-11-11 | 2022-11-30 |
| 2022-08-04 | $0.02 | 2022-07-14 | 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-31 |
| 2022-05-05 | $0.02 | 2022-04-19 | 2022-05-06 | 2022-05-25 |
| 2022-02-10 | $0.27 | 2022-01-26 | 2022-02-11 | 2022-02-25 |
| 2021-11-04 | $0.02 | 2021-10-25 | 2021-11-05 | 2021-11-29 |
| 2021-08-05 | $0.02 | 2021-07-19 | 2021-08-06 | 2021-08-30 |
Narrative Economics
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
The two lenses line up cleanly and tell me to sit on my hands. Quality at +17 (Mixed) says this is a real subscription monopoly throwing off $1B+ FCF with disciplined buybacks and Berkshire's open-market endorsement — but with four straight years of revenue decline, 360bps of gross margin erosion, and an Altman-distress balance sheet, I can't call it a compounder I want to own at any price. Valuation at -17 (Fairly Valued) confirms the math: the 11-13% equity FCF yield evaporates to a 16-18x EV/FCF once you net the $9.6B of debt, which is a full multiple for a melting top line. Fair price, leaky business, levered balance sheet — that's a pass at $27.
My play: zero position today, alert set at $22. Sub-$22 I start a 1/3 starter (roughly 1% of book), and I'd scale to a full 2.5-3% position only into the high teens or on a clean catalyst — a stabilizing sub number, a refinancing done at reasonable rates, or a tape washout that takes it down with no fundamental change. What flips me to the sidelines permanently: a debt refi at materially worse rates, a quarter showing ARPU rolling over, or further GM compression below 45%. This isn't a short either — Berkshire's bid and the buyback machine make that a bad risk/reward. It's just a 'come back when it's actually cheap' name, and at $27 with no margin of safety against a real secular threat, I have better places to put capital.
SIRI is a mature cash machine throwing off $1.0-1.6B of FCF annually on ~$8.6-9.0B of revenue, with gross margins still around 47-50% — that is the signature of a near-monopoly subscription business with low incremental cost. Management is using that cash to shrink the float meaningfully (diluted shares from 414M in 2021 to 338-357M by 2025, a -3.7% CAGR) while SBC is a modest 2.1% of revenue and buybacks run ~6.8x SBC. Berkshire's ~$106M of open-market purchases over the past year is the highest-quality external validation a business can get.
The concerning side is just as concrete. Revenue has gone backwards every year since 2022 ($9.00B → $8.56B), gross margin has slid 360bps (50.6% → 47.0%), and 2024 carried a $1.67B net loss (likely a goodwill/intangible impairment given OpM swung to -17.4% while FCF stayed at $1.0B+). Net debt is $9.6B against just $94M of liquid cash, with $1.06B of short-term debt — Altman Z of 1.32 puts it in the distress band. The business funds itself comfortably today, but there is no balance-sheet cushion and the top-line trend says the subscriber moat is leaking.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Nature and size of the 2024 impairment charge — goodwill on Pandora? Satellite assets? Recurring risk?
- Subscriber count and ARPU trend (self-pay vs. promo) for SiriusXM and Pandora segments
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average coupon — how much rolls in next 24 months and at what rate
- Capex requirements for next-gen satellite replacement cycle (lumpy and large historically)
- Churn rate trends and vehicle-installed-base trajectory as EV/connected-car competition grows
- Whether the recent share count uptick from 338M (2024) to 357M (2025) reflects the Liberty split-off mechanics vs. genuine dilution
Sirius generates ~$1.0–1.2B of FCF on a $9.1B market cap (roughly 11–13% FCF yield), which on its face looks cheap. But the e2e synthesis flags 'Reasonable Premium' and you have to net out $9.6B of net debt — EV is ~$18.7B, so the EV/FCF is closer to 16–18x, which is a fair-to-full multiple for a business with four straight years of revenue declines and 360bps of gross margin erosion. That is not a margin-of-safety setup.
What's priced in at $27: low-single-digit FCF persistence with continued buybacks shrinking the float. That's plausible given the auto-embedded base and Berkshire's open-market accumulation, but it is NOT pricing in a real terminal decline scenario — and the bear case (streaming substitution, aging sub base) is a live risk. Earnings quality is decent so no haircut there, but the levered balance sheet (Altman distress zone) means equity holders absorb more downside if FCF slips. Net: deserved value sits within shouting distance of price. I'd want a clear discount before treating this as a value trade.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Self-pay subscriber net adds trajectory in next two quarters — is the decline stabilizing?
- ARPU trend and price-increase absorption — churn response to pricing
- FCF guidance and capex profile post-satellite launches (one-offs rolling off?)
- Pace and price of buybacks — share count reduction is the core per-share thesis
- Streaming/360L subscriber growth as offset to satellite attrition