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Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Price
$66.25
Market Cap
$9.1B
Employees
3,298
Beta
0.43
Avg Volume
527,804
CEO
Joseph Kim
Business Description
Sunoco LP, together with its subsidiaries, distributes and retails motor fuels in the United States. It operates in two segments, Fuel Distribution and Marketing, and All Other. The Fuel Distribution and Marketing segment purchases motor fuel from independent refiners and oil companies and supplies it to independently operated dealer stations, distributors and other consumer of motor fuel, and partnership operated stations, as well as to commission agent locations. The All Other segment operates retail stores that offer motor fuel, merchandise, foodservice, and other services that include credit card processing, car washes, lottery, automated teller machines, money orders, prepaid phone cards, and wireless services. It also leases and subleases real estate properties; and operates terminal facilities on the Hawaiian Islands. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 78 retail stores in Hawaii and New Jersey. Sunoco GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Susser Petroleum Partners LP and changed its name to Sunoco LP in October 2014. Sunoco LP was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 4:06pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:03pm (5d ago)$66.25
-1.02 (-1.52%)
Day Range
$66.05 – $67.57
52-Week Range
$47.98 – $72.88
50-Day MA
$66.91
200-Day MA
$58.04
Volume
236,472.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low
$64.00
Consensus
$74.50
High
$80.00
(22 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding
136,647,180.00
Float
107,777,240.00
Free Float
78.9%
Normal free float
— 78.9% of shares trade freely, ~21.1% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider
CALC Derived from statements
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
APIStock Price / EPS (Diluted)
10.38
Stock Price: $66.25
EPS (Diluted): 3.68
EPS (Diluted): 3.68
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
APIStock Price / Book Value Per Share
0.89
Stock Price: $66.25
Total Equity: $8.01B
Shares: 137,198,218
Total Equity: $8.01B
Shares: 137,198,218
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
APIEnterprise Value / EBITDA
3.87
Market Cap: $9.05B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Cash: $891.00M
EBITDA: $1.82B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Cash: $891.00M
EBITDA: $1.82B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
APIMarket Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$22.4B
Market Cap: $9.05B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Cash: $891.00M
Total Debt: $14.86B
Cash: $891.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
APIGross Profit / Revenue
8.3%
Gross Profit: $2.10B
Revenue: $25.20B
Revenue: $25.20B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
APIOperating Income / Revenue
3.7%
Operating Income: $929.00M
Revenue: $25.20B
Revenue: $25.20B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
APINet Income / Revenue
2.1%
Net Income: $527.00M
Revenue: $25.20B
Revenue: $25.20B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
APINet Income / Total Equity
17.3%
Net Income: $527.00M
Total Equity: $8.01B
Total Equity: $8.01B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
APINOPAT / Invested Capital
5.5%
Operating Income: $929.00M
Tax Rate: 10.5%
Equity: $8.01B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Cash: $891.00M
Tax Rate: 10.5%
Equity: $8.01B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Cash: $891.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
APICurrent Assets / Current Liabilities
1.38
Current Assets: $5.52B
Current Liabilities: $4.00B
Current Liabilities: $4.00B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALCTotal Debt / Total Equity
1.85
Short-Term Debt: $228.00M
Long-Term Debt: $14.63B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Total Equity: $8.01B
Long-Term Debt: $14.63B
Total Debt: $14.86B
Total Equity: $8.01B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALCRevenue / Shares Outstanding
$183.68
Revenue: $25.20B
Shares: 137,198,218
Shares: 137,198,218
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$58.38
Total Equity: $8.01B
Shares: 137,198,218
Shares: 137,198,218
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.48
Operating CF: $1.19B
CapEx: -$577.00M
Shares: 137,198,218
CapEx: -$577.00M
Shares: 137,198,218
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
APILast Annual Dividend / Stock Price
9.2%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $66.25
Stock Price: $66.25
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $527.00M
Net Income: $527.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Compares SUN against LLM-researched typical ranges for its
industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry
reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:08:50 pm
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
0
Company Classification
— What type of company is this?
1
Industry Landscape
— Where is the industry headed?
2
Company Momentum
— Where is this company trending?
3
Forward Projection
— 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a
DCF Valuation
— Present value of future cash flows
4b
Earnings Power Value
— Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c
Anchored PE
— Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d
Reverse DCF
— What growth is the market pricing in?
4e
Revenue-Based DCF
— For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f
Anchored P/S
— Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g
Scenario Analysis
— Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h
Dividend Discount Model
— For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i
Book Value Analysis
— For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j
Insider Activity
— Are insiders buying or selling?
4f
Cash Flow Quality
— How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g
Debt Maturity Risk
— Can it handle its debt?
4h
Macro Environment
— Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i
Sector Intelligence
— How does this company compare within its sector?
4j
Revenue Confidence
— How reliable is the growth projection?
4k
Sensitivity Analysis
— How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l
Sector Demand Cycle
— Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5
AI Investigation
— Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b
Thesis Evaluation
— What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6
Valuation Synthesis
— Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:08pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.6B | $25.7B | $23.1B | $22.7B | $25.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $16.4B | $24.5B | $21.9B | $21.0B | $23.1B |
| Gross Profit | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $424.0M | $508.0M | $543.0M | $939.0M | $1.2B |
| Operating Income | $749.0M | $678.0M | $635.0M | $791.0M | $929.0M |
| Net Income | $446.0M | $397.0M | $311.0M | $716.0M | $527.0M |
| EBITDA | $887.0M | $870.0M | $829.0M | $1.0B | $1.8B |
| EPS | $5.35 | $4.74 | $3.70 | $6.04 | $3.68 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:06pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $25.0M | $82.0M | $29.0M | $94.0M | $891.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.2B | $2.0B | $1.9B | $2.5B | $5.5B |
| Total Assets | $5.8B | $6.9B | $6.9B | $14.4B | $28.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $890.0M | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $4.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.5B | $7.5B | $14.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $5.0B | $5.9B | $5.9B | $10.3B | $20.3B |
| Total Equity | $811.0M | $942.0M | $978.0M | $4.1B | $8.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:08pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $543.0M | $561.0M | $600.0M | $549.0M | $1.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$174.0M | -$186.0M | -$215.0M | -$344.0M | -$577.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $369.0M | $375.0M | $385.0M | $205.0M | $615.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$256.0M | -$318.0M | -$111.0M | $790.0M | -$2.0B |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | -$72.0M | $57.0M | -$53.0M | $65.0M | $797.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:03pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$44.2B $42.7B – $45.3B
|
$41.1B $39.2B – $43.0B
|
$51.0B $49.3B – $52.2B
|
$43.1B $41.7B – $44.1B
|
| EBITDA |
$2.1B $2.0B – $2.2B
|
$2.0B $1.9B – $2.0B
|
$2.4B $2.3B – $2.5B
|
$2.0B $2.0B – $2.1B
|
| Net Income |
$1.3B $872.0M – $1.4B
|
$1.1B $760.7M – $1.5B
|
$960.4M $918.9M – $990.3M
|
$1.0B $959.6M – $1.0B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:08pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +46.2% | -10.3% | -1.6% | +11.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +1.1% | -0.7% | +46.9% | +21.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | -9.5% | -6.3% | +24.6% | +17.4% |
| Net Income Growth | -11.0% | -21.7% | +130.2% | -26.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | -1.9% | -4.7% | +23.8% | +77.2% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:06pm (5d ago)
Type codes
PPurchase
SSale
AAward / grant
MOption exercise
FIn-kind (tax)
CConversion
GGift
DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | Barron Bradley C | A-Award | 2,436.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Alvarez Oscar A. | A-Award | 2,436.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Smith W Brett | A-Award | 2,436.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Skidmore David K | A-Award | 2,436.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Washburne Ray W | A-Award | 2,436.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Harkness Austin | A-Award | 19,875.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Harkness Austin | F-InKind | 9,405.00 | $55.26 | $519,720 |
| 2025-12-05 | Harkness Austin | A-Award | 6,625.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Raymer Rick | A-Award | 5,438.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Raymer Rick | F-InKind | 3,519.00 | $55.26 | $194,460 |
| 2024-12-05 | Raymer Rick | A-Award | 1,812.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Fails Karl R | A-Award | 35,100.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Fails Karl R | F-InKind | 14,600.00 | $55.26 | $806,796 |
| 2025-12-05 | Fails Karl R | A-Award | 11,700.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Hand Brian A | A-Award | 19,875.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Hand Brian A | F-InKind | 9,149.00 | $55.26 | $505,574 |
| 2025-12-05 | Hand Brian A | A-Award | 6,625.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Kim Joseph | A-Award | 97,200.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Kim Joseph | F-InKind | 33,810.00 | $55.26 | $1.9M |
| 2025-12-05 | Kim Joseph | A-Award | 32,400.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:03pm (5d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $0.99 | 2026-04-21 | 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-20 |
| 2026-02-06 | $0.93 | 2026-01-27 | 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-19 |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.92 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-19 |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.91 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-19 |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.90 | 2025-04-23 | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-20 |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.89 | 2025-01-27 | 2025-02-07 | 2025-02-19 |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.88 | 2024-10-28 | 2024-11-08 | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.88 | 2024-07-25 | 2024-08-09 | 2024-08-19 |
| 2024-05-10 | $0.88 | 2024-05-03 | 2024-05-13 | 2024-05-20 |
| 2024-02-06 | $0.84 | 2024-01-25 | 2024-02-07 | 2024-02-20 |
| 2023-10-27 | $0.84 | 2023-10-20 | 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-20 |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.84 | 2023-07-25 | 2023-08-14 | 2023-08-21 |
| 2023-05-05 | $0.84 | 2023-04-26 | 2023-05-08 | 2023-05-22 |
| 2023-02-06 | $0.83 | 2023-01-25 | 2023-02-07 | 2023-02-21 |
| 2022-11-03 | $0.83 | 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-04 | 2022-11-18 |
| 2022-08-05 | $0.83 | 2022-07-26 | 2022-08-08 | 2022-08-19 |
| 2022-05-06 | $0.83 | 2022-04-26 | 2022-05-09 | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-02-07 | $0.83 | 2022-01-26 | 2022-02-08 | 2022-02-18 |
| 2021-11-04 | $0.83 | 2021-10-25 | 2021-11-05 | 2021-11-19 |
| 2021-08-05 | $0.83 | 2021-07-22 | 2021-08-06 | 2021-08-19 |
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor
(founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond
what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for SUN.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Fairly valued income name — wait for a dip
7/10
SUN is a fair-priced income LP at $66 — no mispricing edge, so I'm not chasing; I want $56 or a yield shock before I commit capital.
The cruxWhether I get a 15%-ish pullback that pushes the distribution yield into clearly generous territory — without it, there's no edge here.
Company Quality
-25
Mixed
Valuation / Mispricing
-31
Fairly Valued
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality lens wasn't run this cycle, so I'm leaning entirely on the valuation read: -31, Reasonable Premium, deserved value in the high-$60s against a $66.25 tape. That's a coin-flip on price with a real terminal-value overhang from energy transition and an LP structure that caps any re-rating. The yield is the return here — and at current price the yield is market-clearing, not a gift. I have no edge initiating today.
My play: do nothing at $66. I'd put SUN on the income-bench list with a scale-in plan starting around $58 (starter, ~25% of target weight), adding at $56 (the stated attractive-below level, take it to ~60%), and reserving the last tranche for a $52-handle or a distribution hike that re-rates the yield higher. Target full position is small — this is a yield sleeve name, 1.5-2% portfolio weight max, not a core compounder. Things that flip me aggressive earlier: a coverage-ratio surprise to the upside, an accretive acquisition that meaningfully grows distributable cash flow, or a sector-wide MLP puke that drags SUN with it despite clean fundamentals. Things that send me to the sidelines permanently: any crack in distribution coverage or a step-change in EV-driven fuel-volume decline. Until one of those shows up, this is a watch, not a buy.
The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
-25
Sunoco LP is a mature fuel distribution MLP throwing off real cash — FCF rebounded to $615M in 2025 with OCF/NI of 1.52x and accruals at -1.9% of assets, both clean signals on earnings quality. Operating margins have steadily improved from 2.6% in 2022 to 3.7% in 2025 and gross margin nearly doubled from 4.6% to 8.3% over the same span, suggesting genuine mix/operating improvements (likely from acquired midstream/terminal assets) on top of low-margin fuel volumes. The Beneish M of -2.1 doesn't flag manipulation.
The quality drag is on the capital structure side. Net debt sits at roughly $14B against $8.8B market cap, and Altman Z of 1.33 lands in distress territory — typical for an MLP but still a structural constraint, not a cushion. Diluted units have ballooned from 84.4M (2021-2023) to 119.3M in 2024 and 137.2M in 2025 — a 62% increase in two years, almost certainly equity issued to fund M&A (NuStar, Zenith, etc.) rather than SBC (which is only 0.1% of revenue). Net income per unit actually went backwards: $716M/119M = $6.01 in 2024 vs $527M/137M = $3.84 in 2025, despite higher revenue and margins. That is the core quality tension: the business is improving on an absolute basis while per-unit economics get diluted.
Insider tape is non-directional — all awards and tax-withholding, zero open-market P/S — so no read either way on management conviction.
Strengths 3
m60
Margin expansion is real
Gross margin climbed from 4.6% (2022) to 8.3% (2025) and operating margin from 2.6% to 3.7%, evidence of mix shift toward higher-margin midstream/terminal assets versus pure fuel distribution.
m55
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.52x, accruals -1.9% of assets, Beneish M -2.1 — reported earnings are backed by cash, no manipulation flags.
m45
Self-funding FCF
$615M FCF in 2025 covers ongoing operations and a meaningful portion of distributions without requiring new external capital for opex/maintenance.
Concerns 5
m80
Massive unit dilution destroys per-unit value
Diluted units jumped from 85.1M (2023) → 119.3M (2024) → 137.2M (2025), a 61% increase. Net income per unit fell from $6.01 in 2024 to $3.84 in 2025 despite revenue and margin growth — acquisitions are growing the pie but shrinking each slice.
m70
Highly leveraged balance sheet
Net debt of ~$14B vs $8.8B market cap and Altman Z of 1.33 in distress zone. Even normalized for MLP structure, debt service is a permanent claim on cash flow ahead of unitholders.
m40
Thin structural margins
Even after expansion, operating margin is only 3.7% — fuel distribution is fundamentally a low-margin, volume-dependent business with limited pricing power against commodity swings.
m25
Net income volatility
Net income swung from $311M (2023) to $716M (2024) to $527M (2025) — reflects commodity exposure and deal-related items, makes underlying earnings power hard to pin down.
m20
No insider conviction signal
Zero open-market purchases over the last 12 months; all activity is awards and tax-withholding. No directional read but also no insider validation during a period of heavy unit issuance.
This is a serviceable but not great business wrapped in a leveraged MLP structure. The operations are genuinely improving — margins are expanding, cash flow is real, earnings quality is clean — and there's a credible story that acquired midstream assets are de-commoditizing the mix. But two things bother me as a quality judge: the balance sheet is permanently stretched (~$14B net debt, Altman in distress), and unit count has grown 62% in two years, which means absolute business growth is being substantially shared with new unitholders. Net income per unit actually fell in 2025 despite a better business. That's the signature of a roll-up MLP — growth is real but per-unit compounding is mediocre. Not a fortress, not fragile; a mature, leveraged, acquisitive yield vehicle that I'd grade Mixed leaning Solid only if the M&A turns out clearly accretive on a per-unit cash basis.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Confirm the 2024-2025 unit issuance was for accretive M&A (NuStar/Zenith integrations) and whether EBITDA per unit — not net income per unit — actually grew
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted average interest rate, especially refinancing exposure given Altman Z in distress zone
- Distribution coverage ratio and whether $615M FCF comfortably covers cash distributions to LP units
- Customer/geographic concentration in fuel distribution segment and any take-or-pay protection in midstream contracts
- Maintenance vs growth capex split — how much of capex is true sustaining vs acquisitive
- Tax treatment and GP/LP economics — are incentive distribution rights siphoning value from common unitholders?
-31
Price $66.25 vs deserved value roughly in the high-$60s — essentially fair, no meaningful margin of safety either way. attractive below $56.00
The e2e synthesis pegs SUN as trading at a Reasonable Premium, which lines up with a steady-compounder narrative already understood by the market. At $66.25 and ~$9.05B market cap, you're paying for a dependable fuel-distribution LP with a high distribution yield (typically 6-7% range for SUN historically) — not for a hidden mispricing. Earnings quality is good (no haircut), so deserved value doesn't need to come down for accounting reasons, but the LP structure caps reinvestment and the energy-transition overhang puts a ceiling on the multiple you should pay.
Cheap signals 2
m30
Distribution yield provides a floor
A mid-single-digit-plus covered distribution sets a hard valuation floor; income buyers will step in on dips, which limits downside and supports the 'fair' read rather than 'expensive.'
m25
Good earnings quality — no haircut needed
Earnings-quality signal is clean (score 1), so the reported cash flows underpinning the distribution can be taken largely at face value. Deserved value doesn't need to be marked down for accruals games.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Reasonable premium per composite
The e2e synthesis labels SUN a Reasonable Premium — meaning the steady-compounder thesis is already in the price. Buying here means you're underwriting continued execution, not a discount.
m40
LP structure caps re-rating
High-payout LP means most cash goes out the door as distributions, leaving thin reinvestment runway. Markets rarely award expansion multiples to MLPs — the yield IS the return, and at ~6-7% it's market-clearing, not cheap.
m35
Energy-transition tail risk not priced as a discount
EV adoption and long-term fuel-demand erosion are real terminal-value drags for a fuel-distribution LP. At a premium multiple, you're not being paid to take that risk.
Fairly valued — I have no edge here at $66. The composite says Reasonable Premium, the LP yield is market-clearing not generous, and the transition overhang means I shouldn't pay up. I'd want it closer to $56 (roughly a 15% pullback, pushing yield meaningfully higher) before the gap becomes interesting. Until then, this is a hold-for-yield name, not a value bet.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Distribution coverage ratio in the latest 10-Q and management's reaffirmed guidance
- Organic vs acquisition-driven EBITDA growth split — premium only justified if organic is positive
- Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) trend post recent M&A — rising leverage would lower deserved value
- Fuel volume trends and dealer-network churn — the canary for transition risk
- Real estate / non-fuel income contribution — the optionality leg of the bull case
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16