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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 93% complete · +6 refreshed

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.

TCBX NYSE Categories PDF
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Humble, TX 77338, United States IPO 2021 tcbssb.com Updated Jun 12, 12:51am
Price
$39.45
Market Cap
$556.3M
Employees
376
Beta
0.66
Avg Volume
82,838
CEO
Bart O. Caraway
Business Description

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. serves as the parent company for Third Coast Bank, SSB, a financial institution primarily focused on delivering a broad spectrum of commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, as well as individual professionals. The bank's offerings include a comprehensive range of deposit accounts, such as checking, savings, individual retirement accounts (IRAs), money market accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs). For its lending services, it provides commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which encompass financing for equipment, working capital, vehicle fleets, and various other commercial needs. Beyond these core services, Third Coast also offers treasury management, both consumer and commercial online banking platforms, mobile applications, secure safe deposit boxes, wire transfer capabilities, and debit cards. Geographically, the bank operates a total of twelve branches: eleven are strategically located across the major Texas metropolitan areas of Greater Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin-San Antonio, with an additional branch situated in Detroit, Texas. The company was founded in 2008 and has its principal office in Humble, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 4:39pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 13, 2026 12:09am (just now)
$40.08
+0.63 (+1.60%)
Day Range
$39.45 – $40.30
52-Week Range
$29.66 – $43.84
50-Day MA
$38.82
200-Day MA
$38.96
Volume
74,666.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $45.00
Consensus $45.00
High $45.00
(3 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 14,101,059.00
Float 11,050,619.00
Free Float 78.4%
Normal free float — 78.4% of shares trade freely, ~21.6% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 13, 2026 12:09am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 8:40pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:38pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
8.01
Stock Price: $39.45
EPS (Diluted): 4.45
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
0.99
Stock Price: $39.45
Total Equity: $531.03M
Shares: 16,373,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
3.23
Market Cap: $556.29M
Total Debt: $118.84M
Cash: $175.47M
EBITDA: $90.04M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$486.1M
Market Cap: $556.29M
Total Debt: $118.84M
Cash: $175.47M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
55.3%
Gross Profit: $202.79M
Revenue: $366.95M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
23.2%
Operating Income: $84.99M
Revenue: $366.95M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
18.1%
Net Income: $66.29M
Revenue: $366.95M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
12.6%
Net Income: $66.29M
Total Equity: $531.03M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.2%
Operating Income: $84.99M
Tax Rate: 19.9%
Equity: $531.03M
Total Debt: $118.84M
Cash: $175.47M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.09
Current Assets: $428.62M
Current Liabilities: $4.67B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.22
Short-Term Debt: $37.88M
Long-Term Debt: $80.97M
Total Debt: $118.84M
Total Equity: $531.03M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$22.41
Revenue: $366.95M
Shares: 16,373,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$32.43
Total Equity: $531.03M
Shares: 16,373,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.94
Operating CF: $50.84M
CapEx: -$2.68M
Shares: 16,373,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.9%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $39.45
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $66.29M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:38pm
Compares TCBX against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:41:05 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 8:40pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $103.2M $160.2M $274.1M $338.1M $366.9M
Cost of Revenue $20.0M $49.7M $133.3M $173.3M $164.2M
Gross Profit $83.2M $110.5M $140.7M $164.8M $202.8M
Operating Expenses $68.7M $87.3M $99.1M $103.4M $117.8M
Operating Income $14.5M $23.2M $41.6M $61.4M $85.0M
Net Income $11.4M $18.7M $33.4M $47.7M $66.3M
EBITDA $14.2M $25.7M $45.6M $66.0M $90.0M
EPS $1.45 $1.28 $2.11 $3.14 $4.45
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:39pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $326.9M $329.9M $296.9M $371.5M $175.5M
Total Current Assets $363.5M $524.3M $498.1M $781.4M $428.6M
Total Assets $2.5B $3.8B $4.4B $4.9B $5.3B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $3.3B $3.8B $4.3B $4.7B
Long-Term Debt $0 $80.3M $80.6M $80.8M $81.0M
Total Liabilities $2.2B $3.4B $4.0B $4.5B $4.8B
Total Equity $299.0M $381.8M $412.0M $460.7M $531.0M
Retained Earnings $36.0M $53.3M $78.8M $121.7M $183.2M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 8:40pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $4.6M $21.8M $39.1M $35.1M $50.8M
Capital Expenditure -$5.6M -$12.2M -$3.4M -$1.8M -$2.7M
Free Cash Flow -$1.0M $9.6M $35.6M $33.4M $48.2M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $-121,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $123.5M $5.0M $79.8M $9.4M -$240.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:51am (23h ago)
Metric 2024 2025 2026 2027
Revenue $169.1M
$168.4M – $169.7M
$205.7M
$204.8M – $206.5M
$250.8M
$242.7M – $258.9M
$272.5M
$267.0M – $278.1M
EBITDA $30.6M
$30.5M – $30.7M
$37.2M
$37.1M – $37.4M
$45.4M
$43.9M – $46.9M
$49.3M
$48.3M – $50.3M
Net Income $43.6M
$42.4M – $44.8M
$60.4M
$60.1M – $60.6M
$63.8M
$62.1M – $65.6M
$70.9M
$67.1M – $74.8M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 8:40pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +55.2% +71.1% +23.4% +8.5%
Gross Profit Growth +32.8% +27.4% +17.1% +23.1%
Operating Income Growth +60.0% +79.6% +47.4% +38.5%
Net Income Growth +63.3% +79.0% +42.7% +39.1%
EBITDA Growth +81.0% +77.1% +44.8% +36.5%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 6:43pm (5h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-21 Phelps David R A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Stunja Joseph A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Eisenhart Lynn A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Bailey Carolyn A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Stich Mary A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Swinbank Reagan A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Greenleaf Clint Tuxberry A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Glander Troy Andrew A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Bonnen Dennis A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Bonnen Greg A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Basaldua Martin A-Award 1,318.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 McDonald Shelton M-Exempt 6,000.00 $16.43 $98,580
2026-05-07 McDonald Shelton M-Exempt 6,000.00 $16.43 $98,580
2026-03-16 Greenleaf Clint Tuxberry 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-16 Wilkinson Jeffrey A 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-15 Bobbora William A-Award 3,549.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-15 Caraway Bart A-Award 32,136.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-15 MCWHORTER RICHARD J A-Award 3,180.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-15 Eber Liz A-Award 1,338.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-15 Peacock Christopher Seay A-Award 669.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TCBX.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 17:10:37
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-lite — wait for a dip 7/10
A legitimately improving Texas small-bank franchise (+16 quality) trading right on top of fair value (-40 value) — good business, no edge at $39.
The cruxWhether you get a chance to buy this at a real discount to tangible book before the dilution-funded growth story re-rates — entry price, not business quality, is the whole game here.
Company Quality
+16
Solid
edge √Σ 109 · risk √Σ 93 · conf 6/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-40
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 76 · conf 5/10
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityWeak — Some Red Flags
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a coherent story: quality says 'Solid, not great' at +16 because the franchise is genuinely scaling (margins 14%→23%, clean accruals, FCF tracking NI) but shareholders are being diluted at a 19% CAGR to fund it, and value says 'Fairly Valued' at -40 with deserved value in the high-$30s to low-$40s — right where it trades. There's no disagreement to exploit. This is a decent Texas community bank priced like a decent Texas community bank. I'm not paying up for a business whose per-share compounding is structurally capped by equity issuance, and I'm definitely not paying up when the e2e composite is flagged unreliable and I have no margin of safety on what is ultimately commodity lending.

My play: pass at $39, set an alert at $33 (the value lens's attractive-below, ~15% lower and roughly 1x a defensible TBV). At $33 I'd open a starter position around 1% of the book; if it overshoots to the high-$20s on a regional-bank scare (deposit beta, CRE mark, NIM compression headline) without the Texas franchise actually breaking, I'd scale to a 2.5-3% full position — that's the asymmetry I need to underwrite the ongoing dilution. Above $42 I'm uninterested entirely; the bull case is already in the price. Catalyst that would flip me to aggressive earlier: a clear deceleration in share issuance combined with continued NIM and ROA expansion — that would mean the per-share story is finally catching up to the franchise story, and quality re-rates from +16 toward something I'd actually pay fair value for.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+16 Solid edge √Σ 109 · risk √Σ 93 · conf 6/10

Third Coast Bancshares is showing the operating profile of a maturing regional bank hitting scale. Revenue has compounded from $103M (2021) to $367M (2025), operating margin has expanded from 14% to 23.2%, and net income has gone from $11.4M to $66.3M. FCF turned from negative $1M in 2021 to $48.2M in 2025, and OCF/NI of 0.85x with accruals at just 0.1% of assets suggests earnings are largely real cash. Beneish M of -2.41 is in the clean range — no manipulation signature.

The blemish is dilution. Diluted shares went from 8.1M (2021) to a peak of 17.1M (2024), then 16.4M (2025) — a 19.1% CAGR. SBC is only 0.4% of revenue, so this isn't comp-driven; it's deliberate equity raises (capital build for a growing bank). The 'fortress balance sheet' and 'Altman Z distress' module readings are both noise here — for a bank, cash and Z-score are not meaningful framings, since deposits look like 'debt' and loans are the asset base. What matters: ROA/ROE trajectory, NIM, credit quality, and tangible book per share growth — none of which we can see directly, but the margin expansion and clean accruals strongly suggest the underlying bank is running well.

Strengths 4
m75
Operating leverage is real
Operating margin expanded from 14.0% (2021) to 23.2% (2025) while revenue grew 3.5x. Net income compounded from $11.4M to $66.3M — classic scaling-bank profile.
m55
Clean earnings quality
Accruals just 0.1% of assets, Beneish M -2.41 (well below the -1.78 manipulation threshold). No earnings-management red flags.
m45
FCF tracking earnings
FCF of $48.2M in 2025 vs $66.3M net income (OCF/NI 0.85x). For a growing bank, cash conversion this clean is encouraging.
m35
Modest insider buying tilt
4 open-market buys ($353K) vs 5 sells ($243K) — mild net positive in dollars, plus awards across a broad director slate suggest engaged board.
Concerns 4
m78
Share count compounding at 19.1%/yr
Diluted shares went 8.1M → 13.8M → 16.9M → 17.1M → 16.4M. Per-share value creation lags the business meaningfully; net income up ~6x while shares roughly doubled.
m35
Buyback is cosmetic
Buyback/SBC ratio 1.8x but SBC is only 0.4% of rev — the real dilution is equity issuance, not comp, and buybacks aren't sized to offset it.
m30
Gross margin compression and volatility
GM% went 80.6 → 69 → 51.3 → 48.7 → 55.3 — likely reflects funding cost (interest expense) dynamics, but the swings suggest sensitivity to rate environment.
m20
Altman Z and 'net cash' framings are not meaningful for a bank
The module flags Z of -0.71 (distress) and cash/mktcap 72% — both are artifacts of applying industrial-company metrics to a bank balance sheet. Cannot rely on these for quality read.
This is a legitimately improving small-bank franchise — margins are expanding, earnings are clean, cash conversion is solid, and the Texas regional banking footprint is a reasonable place to operate. But I can't get to 'great company' because shareholders have been heavily diluted to fund the growth: net income is up ~6x while share count more than doubled. That's not necessarily wrong for a growing bank building capital, but it does cap per-share compounding. The forensic modules' 'fortress / distress' contradictions are noise — bank balance sheets break those models. Real quality verdict hinges on tangible book/share trajectory and credit quality, neither of which I can see here. On the available evidence, this is a Solid operator, not a Fortress.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • Tangible book value per share growth over 2021-2025 — true measure of whether dilution destroyed or created per-share value
  • ROA and ROE trend; ROTCE vs peer Texas regionals
  • Net interest margin (NIM) and trajectory; deposit beta
  • Non-performing loans, charge-offs, and loan loss reserve coverage — credit quality is the real risk for a bank growing this fast
  • Loan concentration (commercial real estate exposure — relevant for Texas regionals)
  • Capital ratios (CET1, total risk-based) — does the dilution reflect required regulatory capital build?
  • Deposit composition — uninsured deposit % and any post-SVB funding stress
  • Reason for the 8.1M → 13.8M share jump in 2022 (IPO/secondary?) and subsequent raises
-40 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 76 · conf 5/10
Price $39.21 vs deserved value roughly $38-$42 — within noise, call it fair. attractive below $33.00

TCBX trades at $39.21 with a ~$553M market cap. For a regional bank, the relevant anchor is tangible book and normalized earnings power, not the e2e composite which is flagged as 'Disconnected from Fundamentals' — I'm discounting that signal heavily. On a quality-adjusted basis, the franchise is genuinely improving (margin expansion, clean earnings, Texas growth markets), which supports deserved value, but the heavy share issuance (share count more than doubled while NI grew 6x) materially caps per-share value creation and warrants a haircut.

Net-net, with an earnings-quality hint of -1 and persistent dilution risk against a backdrop of solid-but-not-special small-bank economics, I peg deserved value roughly in the high-$30s to low-$40s — essentially where it trades. There's no priced-for-perfection setup here, but there's also no margin of safety. The bull case (Texas deposit growth, rising profitability) appears largely reflected; the bear case (NIM pressure, commodity lending, continued dilution) is the real risk to deserved value drifting lower.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Improving profitability not fully extrapolated
Margin expansion and clean earnings in resilient Texas markets support a deserved multiple at or slightly above peer regional banks; that gives some cushion vs the current price.
m20
Reasonable multiple to tangible book
Per the bull framing, TCBX trades at a reasonable P/TBV for a growing Texas community bank — not a screaming bargain, but not stretched either.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
Persistent dilution erodes per-share deserved value
Share count has more than doubled while net income grew ~6x; this structural dilution is a real drag on per-share value and means deserved value per share lags the franchise's aggregate progress.
m35
Earnings-quality haircut applies
The -1 earnings-quality hint argues for trimming deserved value modestly; for a bank, any softness in reserves, credit marks, or one-time gains compounds quickly into multiples.
m40
e2e composite flagged 'Disconnected from Fundamentals'
The headline fair-value synthesis is unreliable here — I'm not crediting any large implied upside it might suggest. Without a trustworthy DCF/multiple anchor, the burden of proof for 'cheap' isn't met.
I see a decent small-bank franchise priced about right. The e2e composite is flagged unreliable, the earnings-quality hint says haircut, and the dilution history says per-share value compounds slower than the bull narrative implies. At $39, I'm not interested — I'd want it closer to $33 (~15% lower) to get a real margin of safety on a commodity-lending business, even one in good Texas markets. Fairly valued is the honest answer.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Tangible book value per share and P/TBV vs Texas regional peers (CFR, PB, FFIN)
  • Forward NIM guidance and deposit cost trajectory
  • Credit quality: NPL trends, reserve coverage, CRE/office exposure
  • Share issuance cadence — is capital raising slowing or ongoing?
  • Normalized ROTCE and whether mid-teens is sustainable
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16