Business Description
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stands as a prominent luxury homebuilder operating across the United States. The company, along with its various divisions, specializes in the design, construction, marketing, sale, and financing of upscale detached and attached residences within master-planned communities. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: Traditional Home Building and City Living. The latter specifically focuses on developing, constructing, and selling condominiums. Beyond its core homebuilding activities, Toll Brothers diversifies its portfolio by developing and managing golf courses and country clubs, acquiring and divesting land, and constructing, operating, and leasing apartment complexes. It further enhances its offerings by providing a wide array of interior design and finishing selections, encompassing everything from flooring and cabinetry to smart home systems and security features. The firm maintains a vertically integrated structure, with its own operations spanning architectural and engineering services, mortgage and title insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, and the manufacturing and assembly of various housing components. Its clientele primarily consists of affluent buyers, including those seeking to upgrade their homes, empty-nesters, active adults, and individuals purchasing second homes. Toll Brothers has also forged a strategic alliance with Equity Residential to jointly develop new rental apartment communities across various U.S. markets. Established in 1967, the company's headquarters are situated in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Business History
Generated: Jun 9, 2026 5:25pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 13, 2026 12:06am (just now)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 13.60
Total Equity: $8.27B
Shares: 99,779,000
Total Debt: $2.79B
Cash: $1.26B
EBITDA: $1.87B
Total Debt: $2.79B
Cash: $1.26B
Revenue: $10.97B
Revenue: $10.97B
Revenue: $10.97B
Total Equity: $8.27B
Tax Rate: 24.8%
Equity: $8.27B
Total Debt: $2.79B
Cash: $1.26B
Current Liabilities: $3.11B
Long-Term Debt: $2.79B
Total Debt: $2.79B
Total Equity: $8.27B
Shares: 99,779,000
Shares: 99,779,000
CapEx: -$86.20M
Shares: 99,779,000
Stock Price: $147.21
Net Income: $1.35B
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 9:01pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B | $10.3B | $10.0B | $10.8B | $11.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.8B | $7.8B | $7.4B | $7.8B | $8.1B |
| Gross Profit | $1.9B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $2.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $922.0M | $977.8M | $909.4M | $982.3M | $1.1B |
| Operating Income | $1.0B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $1.7B |
| Net Income | $833.6M | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.3B |
| EBITDA | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $1.9B |
| EPS | $6.72 | $11.02 | $12.47 | $15.16 | $13.60 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 5:22pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.6B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $10.1B | $10.6B | $10.8B | $11.6B | $12.9B |
| Total Assets | $11.5B | $12.3B | $12.5B | $13.4B | $14.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $3.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.6B | $3.3B | $2.9B | $2.8B | $2.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $6.2B | $6.3B | $5.7B | $5.7B | $6.2B |
| Total Equity | $5.3B | $6.0B | $6.8B | $7.7B | $8.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $5.0B | $6.2B | $6.7B | $8.2B | $8.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 9:01pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.3B | $986.8M | $1.3B | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$66.9M | -$71.7M | -$73.0M | -$73.6M | -$86.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $915.1M | $1.2B | $936.5M | $1.0B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$18.4M | -$110.0M | -$103.7M | -$91.9M | -$222.2M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$378.3M | -$542.7M | -$561.6M | -$627.1M | -$651.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $287.8M | -$285.9M | -$54.2M | $26.1M | -$31.5M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 1:07am (22h ago)| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$10.8B $10.8B – $10.9B
|
$10.7B $10.5B – $10.9B
|
$11.1B $10.5B – $11.5B
|
$11.8B $11.7B – $11.9B
|
| EBITDA |
$2.5B $2.5B – $2.5B
|
$2.5B $2.4B – $2.5B
|
$2.6B $2.4B – $2.7B
|
$2.7B $2.7B – $2.8B
|
| Net Income |
$1.4B $1.4B – $1.4B
|
$1.3B $1.3B – $1.3B
|
$1.4B $1.3B – $1.4B
|
$1.6B $1.5B – $1.6B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 9:01pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +16.9% | -2.7% | +8.5% | +1.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +28.0% | +5.9% | +14.7% | -5.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | +47.8% | +14.3% | +18.3% | -15.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +54.3% | +6.7% | +14.5% | -14.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | +44.5% | +13.6% | +17.8% | -12.0% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 10:17pm (1h ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | East Stephen F. | S-Sale | 1,000.00 | $139.70 | $139,700 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mistry Karl K. | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-01 | Mistry Karl K. | 53,100.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-04 | McLean John A | M-Exempt | 2,313.00 | $31.61 | $73,114 |
| 2026-03-04 | McLean John A | S-Sale | 2,313.00 | $153.43 | $354,889 |
| 2026-03-04 | McLean John A | M-Exempt | 2,313.00 | $31.61 | $73,114 |
| 2026-02-27 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | M-Exempt | 27,014.00 | $31.61 | $853,913 |
| 2026-02-27 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | S-Sale | 27,014.00 | $159.15 | $4.3M |
| 2026-02-27 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | M-Exempt | 27,014.00 | $31.61 | $853,913 |
| 2026-02-24 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | M-Exempt | 45,116.00 | $31.61 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-24 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | S-Sale | 43,013.00 | $160.39 | $6.9M |
| 2026-02-24 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | S-Sale | 2,103.00 | $161.04 | $338,668 |
| 2026-02-24 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | M-Exempt | 45,116.00 | $31.61 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-02 | Mainardi Erica J. | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-12-01 | Mainardi Erica J. | 645.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-01-31 | Ziegler Gregg L. | M-Exempt | 4,897.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ziegler Gregg L. | F-InKind | 2,015.00 | $144.49 | $291,147 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ziegler Gregg L. | M-Exempt | 4,897.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-19 | STOWELL SCOTT D | M-Exempt | 1,521.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-19 | STOWELL SCOTT D | M-Exempt | 1,521.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 5:22pm (3d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $0.26 | 2026-03-10 | 2026-04-10 | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-01-09 | $0.25 | 2025-12-18 | 2026-01-09 | 2026-01-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.25 | 2025-09-17 | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-24 |
| 2025-07-11 | $0.25 | 2025-06-18 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-04-11 | $0.25 | 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-25 |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.23 | 2024-12-11 | 2025-01-10 | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-10-11 | $0.23 | 2024-09-17 | 2024-10-11 | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.23 | 2024-06-18 | 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-04-04 | $0.23 | 2024-03-12 | 2024-04-05 | 2024-04-19 |
| 2024-01-11 | $0.21 | 2023-12-13 | 2024-01-12 | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.21 | 2023-09-19 | 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-20 |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.21 | 2023-06-13 | 2023-07-07 | 2023-07-21 |
| 2023-04-05 | $0.21 | 2023-03-09 | 2023-04-06 | 2023-04-21 |
| 2023-01-05 | $0.20 | 2022-12-14 | 2023-01-06 | 2023-01-20 |
| 2022-10-06 | $0.20 | 2022-09-20 | 2022-10-07 | 2022-10-21 |
| 2022-07-07 | $0.20 | 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-08 | 2022-07-22 |
| 2022-04-07 | $0.20 | 2022-03-08 | 2022-04-08 | 2022-04-22 |
| 2022-01-06 | $0.17 | 2021-12-14 | 2022-01-07 | 2022-01-21 |
| 2021-10-07 | $0.17 | 2021-09-21 | 2021-10-08 | 2021-10-22 |
| 2021-07-08 | $0.17 | 2021-06-15 | 2021-07-09 | 2021-07-23 |
Narrative Economics
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
The two lenses are telling a coherent story and I'm going to respect it. Quality at +60 says this is genuinely one of the better-run homebuilders out there — real margin expansion, ~21% share count reduction in four years funded by real FCF, clean forensics, Altman Z of 4. I want to own it. But valuation at -33 says I'm being asked to pay full freight on what are almost certainly peak-cycle margins, with 2025 already showing the rollover (GM 27.9%→26.0%, OpM 18.8%→15.7%, NI $1.57B→$1.35B). 9-10x trailing looks cheap until you haircut EPS 20% and you're at 12-13x a cyclical with net debt and no insider buying. There's no cushion here.
My play: starter position only, maybe 0.5% of book at $144 just to have skin in the game and a reason to keep watching, and I'd honestly rather hold the cash. The real action is on a scale-in plan — I get serious at $125 (1.5% add), aggressive at $115 or ~1.1x book (another 2%, taking it to a 4% full position), and I'd back up the truck toward $95-100 if the cycle truly cracks because the buyback machine plus luxury-niche margin defense make that a layup. Catalysts that pull me in early: a clear Fed easing path that doesn't come with a recession, or management leaning harder into buybacks at lower prices. Catalysts that keep me out: rising cancellation rates, incentive creep eating gross margin below 24%, or any land impairment chatter. Above $160 I'm not just not buying — I'd be trimming the starter. This is a 'patient watchlist name with a bid in,' not a 'buy now' name.
Revenue scaled from $8.79B (2021) to $10.97B (2025), but the more telling story is structural margin expansion: gross margin moved from 22.1% to a peak of 27.9% in 2024 (26.0% in 2025), and operating margin from 11.6% to a peak of 18.8% in 2024 (15.7% in 2025). The luxury-focused, build-to-order model is delivering pricing power and operating leverage that generic homebuilders rarely show. Net income roughly doubled from $834M to a peak of $1.57B before easing to $1.35B as the cycle softened.
Capital allocation is a clear strength. Diluted share count fell from 125.8M to 99.8M — a -5.6% CAGR — with buybacks running 21x SBC. Earnings quality checks are clean: accruals at 1% of assets, OCF/NI 0.94x, Beneish M -2.41, Altman Z 4.08 (safe). FCF of ~$1B/yr is consistent with reported earnings. The main concern is net debt of -$1.53B on a cyclical, capital-intensive land-and-build business, plus the visible 2025 rollover in margins and net income suggesting the housing cycle is turning. Insider behavior is mostly option-exercise-and-sell by the CEO Yearley and others — normal compensation monetization, not a panic signal, but no open-market conviction buying either.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Land bank composition: owned vs optioned lots, and impairment history through prior cycles
- Order backlog trend, cancellation rate, and average selling price direction in latest 10-Q
- Debt maturity ladder and covenants on the ~$2.8B implied gross debt
- Community count growth and projected deliveries — leading indicator for 2026 revenue
- Whether 2025 margin compression is mix/incentive-driven (temporary) or structural
At $144 and a ~$13.5B market cap, TOL trades around 1.4-1.5x tangible book and roughly 9-10x trailing EPS — fair, not cheap, for a homebuilder at or near a cyclical earnings peak. Luxury build-to-order economics and disciplined buybacks (share count down ~21% over four years) justify a premium to historical homebuilder multiples (often 6-8x P/E), and against that backdrop a low-double-digit multiple on peak-ish EPS lands near deserved value rather than below it.
The key valuation tension: are current earnings sustainable or are they normalizing down? Homebuilder EPS this cycle has been elevated by margin expansion that may compress as incentives rise and ASPs face pressure. If forward EPS normalizes 15-25% lower, the multiple on through-cycle earnings is closer to 12-13x — full. If the luxury niche genuinely defends margin, today's price is reasonable but not a steal. I see no meaningful margin of safety at $144; I also don't see a clear short. This is a 'own it if you want the quality, but don't pay up' situation.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward gross margin guidance and incentive load on new orders
- Backlog conversion and cancellation rates by region
- Land spend / lot count trajectory — is management pulling back, signaling cycle caution?
- Pace and price of buybacks in latest quarter
- ASP and order trends in the luxury segment vs entry-level peers