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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 93% complete · +6 refreshed

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

WMS NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Construction
Hilliard, OH 43026, United States IPO 2014 adspipe.com Updated Jun 7, 3:21pm
Price
$130.15
Market Cap
$10.0B
Employees
5,705
Beta
1.29
Avg Volume
936,134
CEO
Donald Scott Barbour
Business Description

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products, and drainage solutions for use in the underground construction and infrastructure marketplace in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company operates through Pipe, International, Infiltrator, and Allied Products & Other segments. It offers single, double, and triple wall corrugated polypropylene and polyethylene pipes; plastic leachfield chambers and systems, EZflow synthetic aggregate bundles, mechanical aeration wastewater solutions, septic tanks and accessories, and combined treatment and dispersal systems; and allied products, including storm retention/detention and septic chambers, polyvinyl chloride drainage structures, fittings, and water quality filters and separators. The company also purchases and distributes construction fabrics and other geosynthetic products for soil stabilization, reinforcement, filtration, separation, erosion control, and sub-surface drainage, as well as drainage grates and other products. It offers its products for non-residential, residential, agriculture, and infrastructure applications through a network of approximately 38 distribution centers. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:23pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
$130.15
-1.05 (-0.80%)
Day Range
$129.34 – $131.64
52-Week Range
$109.63 – $179.32
50-Day MA
$142.53
200-Day MA
$147.23
Volume
2,919,325.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $168.00
Consensus $189.43
High $205.00
(37 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 76,595,708.00
Float 71,251,618.00
Free Float 93.0%
High free float — 93.0% of shares trade freely, ~7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:25pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:25pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:22pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.75
Stock Price: $130.15
EPS (Diluted): 5.48
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.52
Stock Price: $130.15
Total Equity: $1.93B
Shares: 78,482,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.34
Market Cap: $9.97B
Total Debt: $1.65B
Cash: $223.01M
EBITDA: $900.54M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$12.2B
Market Cap: $9.97B
Total Debt: $1.65B
Cash: $223.01M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.3%
Gross Profit: $1.11B
Revenue: $3.05B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
22.5%
Operating Income: $686.71M
Revenue: $3.05B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
14.0%
Net Income: $426.47M
Revenue: $3.05B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
22.4%
Net Income: $426.47M
Total Equity: $1.93B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
13.1%
Operating Income: $686.71M
Tax Rate: 23.9%
Equity: $1.93B
Total Debt: $1.65B
Cash: $223.01M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.42
Current Assets: $1.23B
Current Liabilities: $509.47M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.85
Short-Term Debt: $44.00M
Long-Term Debt: $1.61B
Total Debt: $1.65B
Total Equity: $1.93B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$38.87
Revenue: $3.05B
Shares: 78,482,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$24.62
Total Equity: $1.93B
Shares: 78,482,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.25
Operating CF: $819.05M
CapEx: -$249.77M
Shares: 78,482,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.5%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $130.15
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $426.47M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:22pm
Compares WMS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:25:38 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:25pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $2.8B $3.1B $2.9B $2.9B $3.1B
Cost of Revenue $2.0B $2.0B $1.7B $1.8B $1.9B
Gross Profit $800.4M $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B
Operating Expenses $388.5M $399.1M $413.8M $436.8M $420.8M
Operating Income $411.9M $719.3M $732.1M $657.4M $686.7M
Net Income $271.3M $507.1M $509.9M $450.2M $426.5M
EBITDA $558.9M $872.4M $910.5M $864.5M $900.5M
EPS $3.22 $6.16 $6.52 $5.81 $5.48
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:23pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $20.1M $217.1M $490.2M $463.3M $223.0M
Total Current Assets $871.9M $1.0B $1.3B $1.3B $1.2B
Total Assets $2.6B $2.9B $3.3B $3.7B $4.5B
Current Liabilities $391.2M $378.8M $439.6M $398.4M $509.5M
Long-Term Debt $908.7M $1.3B $1.3B $1.3B $1.6B
Total Liabilities $1.5B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B $2.5B
Total Equity $1.1B $977.4M $1.3B $1.6B $1.9B
Retained Earnings $158.9M $626.2M $1.1B $1.5B $1.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:25pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $274.9M $707.8M $717.9M $581.5M $819.1M
Capital Expenditure -$149.1M -$166.9M -$183.8M -$212.9M -$249.8M
Free Cash Flow $125.8M $540.9M $534.1M $368.5M $569.3M
Acquisitions (net) -$49.3M -$48.0M $0 -$237.3M -$991.1M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$292.0M -$575.0M -$207.3M -$69.9M -$92.0M
Net Change in Cash -$174.9M $197.0M $278.7M -$26.6M -$235.3M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $3.0B
$3.0B – $3.0B
$3.5B
$3.4B – $3.5B
$3.7B
$3.6B – $3.7B
$3.9B
$3.9B – $3.9B
EBITDA $1.2B
$1.1B – $1.2B
$1.3B
$1.3B – $1.3B
$1.4B
$1.4B – $1.4B
$1.5B
$1.5B – $1.5B
Net Income $476.7M
$474.7M – $478.6M
$493.0M
$491.2M – $494.9M
$576.1M
$571.6M – $580.7M
$697.5M
$688.7M – $706.3M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:25pm (5d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +10.9% -6.4% +1.0% +5.0%
Gross Profit Growth +39.7% +2.5% -4.5% +1.2%
Operating Income Growth +74.6% +1.8% -10.2% +4.5%
Net Income Growth +86.9% +0.6% -11.7% -5.3%
EBITDA Growth +56.1% +4.4% -5.0% +4.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:23pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-26 TAYLOR CRAIG J. A-Award 1,530.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 TAYLOR CRAIG J. A-Award 3,406.00 $138.09 $470,335
2026-05-26 Martz Bret A-Award 1,252.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Martz Bret A-Award 2,787.00 $138.09 $384,857
2026-05-26 TALLEY KEVIN C A-Award 1,217.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 TALLEY KEVIN C A-Award 2,709.00 $138.09 $374,086
2026-05-26 Cottrill Scott A A-Award 2,503.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Cottrill Scott A A-Award 5,573.00 $138.09 $769,576
2026-05-26 BARBOUR D. SCOTT A-Award 9,036.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 BARBOUR D. SCOTT A-Award 20,124.00 $138.09 $2.8M
2026-05-26 Coyle Patrick M. Jr A-Award 1,252.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Coyle Patrick M. Jr A-Award 2,787.00 $138.09 $384,857
2026-05-26 MAKOWSKI TIM A A-Award 847.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 MAKOWSKI TIM A A-Award 1,886.00 $138.09 $260,438
2026-05-26 KING BRIAN W. A-Award 950.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 KING BRIAN W. A-Award 2,115.00 $138.09 $292,060
2026-05-22 BARBOUR D. SCOTT F-InKind 1,898.00 $133.00 $252,434
2026-05-22 TAYLOR CRAIG J. F-InKind 152.00 $133.00 $20,216
2026-05-22 TALLEY KEVIN C F-InKind 324.00 $133.00 $43,092
2026-05-22 MAKOWSKI TIM A F-InKind 129.00 $133.00 $17,157
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-01 $0.20 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 2026-06-15
2026-03-02 $0.18 2026-02-05 2026-03-02 2026-03-16
2025-12-01 $0.18 2025-11-06 2025-12-01 2025-12-15
2025-08-29 $0.18 2025-08-07 2025-08-29 2025-09-15
2025-05-30 $0.18 2025-05-15 2025-05-30 2025-06-16
2025-02-28 $0.16 2025-02-06 2025-02-28 2025-03-14
2024-12-02 $0.16 2024-11-08 2024-12-02 2024-12-16
2024-08-30 $0.16 2024-08-08 2024-08-30 2024-09-13
2024-05-31 $0.16 2024-05-16 2024-05-31 2024-06-14
2024-02-29 $0.14 2024-02-08 2024-03-01 2024-03-15
2023-11-30 $0.14 2023-11-02 2023-12-01 2023-12-15
2023-08-31 $0.14 2023-08-03 2023-09-01 2023-09-15
2023-05-31 $0.14 2023-05-18 2023-06-01 2023-06-15
2023-02-28 $0.12 2023-02-02 2023-03-01 2023-03-15
2022-11-30 $0.12 2022-11-03 2022-12-01 2022-12-15
2022-08-31 $0.12 2022-08-04 2022-09-01 2022-09-15
2022-05-31 $0.12 2022-05-19 2022-06-01 2022-06-15
2022-02-28 $0.11 2022-02-03 2022-03-01 2022-03-15
2021-11-30 $0.11 2021-11-04 2021-12-01 2021-12-15
2021-08-31 $0.11 2021-08-05 2021-09-01 2021-09-15
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for WMS.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:51:57
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 8/10
Quality +58 says this is a real business, but Value -79 says today's $130 is paying peak multiples on post-peak earnings — great company, wrong price.
The cruxWhether you anchor on FY24 peak earnings (justifies $130+) or on the rolled-over FY26 print plus $1.4B net debt (says $90-100) — and the rollover is already happening.
Company Quality
+58
Strong
edge √Σ 143 · risk √Σ 85 · conf 8/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-79
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 7/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses are doing exactly what they're supposed to: Lens 1 at +58 tells me WMS is a genuinely high-margin, cash-generative industrial with clean accounting and disciplined share count — the kind of name I want to own. Lens 2 at -79 tells me the market already knows that and then some, with composite FV near $85 and only a backward-looking anchored-PE method defending $130 while EPS has actually rolled from the FY24 peak. That's the textbook trap: paying peak multiples on post-peak earnings into what looks like a cyclical softening, with $1.4B net debt removing the cushion. So I'm not buying here. Pass at $130.

The play: build the watchlist entry, not the position. I want a starter (~1% of book) in the $100-105 zone, which is where quality-adjusted fair value lives and where the risk/reward finally tilts. I scale to a full ~3% position in the $85-90 range — composite FV with a real margin of safety. Catalysts that pull me in earlier: a clear print showing margin stabilization at 22%+ with infrastructure backlog reaccelerating, or a broad construction-cycle washout that takes the stock there on multiple compression rather than fundamental break. What keeps me sidelined or shrinks my appetite: another quarter of operating margin slippage below 22%, or any sign the FY24 earnings peak is structural rather than cyclical. Today this is a price problem, not a business problem — and price problems get solved by waiting.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+58 Strong edge √Σ 143 · risk √Σ 85 · conf 8/10

WMS has transformed from a ~29% gross margin business in FY2022 to a ~36-40% gross margin operation since FY2023, with operating margins running 22-25% — exceptional for a construction-materials manufacturer. FY2026 revenue of $3.05B with $569M FCF (18.7% FCF margin) and $426M net income demonstrates real operating leverage and strong cash conversion (OCF/NI 1.41x, accruals -5.1% of assets). Earnings quality checks are clean across the board: Beneish M of -2.64, Altman Z of 4.3, and no accrual flags.

The primary structural concern is leverage: net debt of ~$1.43B against only $223M liquid cash means the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion, though $569M of annual FCF easily services it. Capital allocation is disciplined — diluted share CAGR of 1.9%, SBC only 1.1% of revenue, and buybacks running 5.6x SBC, meaning per-share value is being protected and modestly enhanced. Revenue has been choppy ($3.07B → $2.87B → $2.90B → $3.05B), suggesting cyclicality tied to construction end-markets, and net income peaked in FY2024 at $510M and has drifted down to $426M despite revenue recovery — margin compression worth watching.

Insider activity flagged as 'unusual selling' is misread by the module: the recent tape shows only A-Awards (grants) and implied tax-withholding events, not open-market P/S sales. No directional insider buying or selling appears in the visible window, so this is a non-signal.

Strengths 4
m80
Structural margin expansion sustained
Gross margin stepped from 28.9% (FY22) to 36-40% range and held there for four years; operating margin 22-25% is elite for construction materials and suggests real pricing power or mix shift to higher-value products.
m78
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.41x, accruals -5.1% of assets, Beneish M -2.64, Altman Z 4.3. FY26 FCF of $569M exceeds net income of $426M — cash earnings are real.
m70
Disciplined capital allocation
Diluted share CAGR 1.9%, SBC 1.1% of revenue, buybacks 560% of SBC. Per-share value is being defended, not eroded.
m55
Strong absolute FCF generation
$569M FCF on $3.05B revenue = 18.7% FCF margin; four-year average FCF ~$430M demonstrates the cash engine is durable across the cycle.
Concerns 4
m55
Net debt position constrains flexibility
Net debt of $1.43B vs $223M liquid cash; cash is only 2.2% of market cap. Serviceable from FCF but leaves less cushion in a construction downturn.
m50
Earnings drifting down despite revenue recovery
Net income peaked at $510M (FY24) and has fallen to $450M (FY25) then $426M (FY26) even as revenue recovered to $3.05B. Operating margin slipped from 25.5% to 22.5% — suggests cost pressure or pricing give-back.
m40
Revenue cyclicality
Revenue path $2.77B → $3.07B → $2.87B → $2.90B → $3.05B shows clear sensitivity to construction cycles; not a steady compounder.
m10
Insider tape — flagged but benign
All recent transactions are A-Award grants and paired likely tax-withholding lots, not open-market sales. The 'unusual selling' flag appears to be a false positive.
This is a high-quality industrial — the margin profile is genuinely impressive for construction materials, the cash generation is real and clean, and management isn't diluting shareholders. The accounting passes every forensic check I'd run. My two real concerns are (1) the balance sheet has $1.4B of net debt so this isn't a fortress, and (2) earnings have actually rolled over from the FY24 peak even as revenue recovered, hinting at cost or pricing pressure that needs explanation. The insider 'unusual selling' flag looks like a misclassification of award grants. Net-net: a Strong, well-run, cyclically-exposed business — not Fortress because of the leverage and the visible margin slip, but clearly above average.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Composition and maturity schedule of the $1.4B+ debt — fixed vs floating, covenants, refinancing windows
  • Whether the FY24→FY26 margin compression reflects raw material/resin costs, pricing competition, or mix shift
  • Customer/end-market concentration — residential vs non-res vs infrastructure exposure
  • Allied Products / Infiltrator segment growth contribution to the gross margin step-up
  • Whether the 'S' (open-market sale) transactions exist outside the 15-row window cited by the insider module
  • Capex intensity and maintenance vs growth split underlying the $569M FCF figure
-79 Rich edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 7/10
Price $130 vs deserved ~$90-100 (quality-adjusted from $88 composite) — roughly 25-35% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $100.00

The e2e composite fair value of $88.09 (signal-adjusted $84.17) implies ~35% downside from $130.15. The methods triangulate reasonably tightly on the conservative side — DCF $75, EPV floor $61, with only the anchored-PE method ($141) supporting today's price, and that one is essentially extrapolating peak FY24 multiples onto rolled-over earnings. I take the cash-flow-based methods more seriously here because earnings quality is high (no haircut needed) but earnings have actually declined from peak, so paying a peak multiple on post-peak EPS is exactly the trap.

Adjusting upward for genuine business quality (Strong, score 58 — high margins, clean cash, disciplined share count) I'd push deserved value toward the upper end of the FV range, call it ~$95-105, but $1.4B net debt keeps me from going further. Even being generous, $130 is 25-35% above what the business deserves on a normalized basis. The bull case requires the platform-monopoly narrative plus a sustained housing/infrastructure upcycle to be only partially priced in — but earnings rolling from the FY24 peak suggests the cycle is already turning, not inflecting up. This isn't a screaming short; it's a quality business at a full-to-rich price where the margin of safety has been spent.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Quality justifies a premium to raw FV
Strong quality grade (score 58), high margins, clean accounting, no dilution warrant a deserved value above the $88 composite — but not 48% above it.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Composite FV ~35% below price
Signal-adjusted FV $84.17 vs price $130.15 implies -35% upside. DCF ($75) and EPV ($61) both corroborate that today's price embeds significant growth/multiple expansion.
m55
Anchored-PE is the lone supporter and it's backward-looking
Only anchored-PE ($141) justifies the price, and it's anchoring on peak FY24 earnings multiples while EPS has rolled over — paying peak multiples on post-peak earnings.
m45
Priced for cycle inflection that may already be turning
Bull thesis needs a sustained infrastructure/housing upcycle, but earnings have declined from the FY24 peak — the multiple expansion already happened on the way up.
m30
$1.4B net debt caps the quality premium
Leverage limits how far you can stretch deserved value on quality alone, especially heading into a cyclical softening.
I think this is a really good business at a price I wouldn't pay. The composite FV near $85 plus a quality premium gets me to maybe $95-105 deserved; $130 is 25-35% above that with no margin of safety, and the only valuation method supporting today's print is essentially backward-looking. I'd need it closer to $100 before I'd get interested, and meaningfully below that to get excited. Today, it's a pass on price.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY25 revenue and EBITDA guidance vs FY24 peak — is the rollover stabilizing or accelerating?
  • Infrastructure/non-residential mix and backlog commentary in the latest transcript
  • Pricing actions and raw material (resin) trends affecting gross margin trajectory
  • Capex plans and incremental capacity — signals management's own cycle read
  • Buyback pace at current levels — are they buying their own stock at these multiples?
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16