A thematic bet starts with a structural change in the world and
looks for the businesses positioned to benefit. Step one is the universe of
candidates. Step two is harder: down-selecting to 2–3 names with
the right fundamentals, valuation, and unique fit to the thesis.
A. Primary thesis — the structural change
Current thesis: IT & web security.
As AI capability accelerates, the offensive side of cybersecurity gets cheaper
and faster. That asymmetrically increases demand for web, identity, and
endpoint security. Several names in the space were dragged down in the broader
SaaS-apocalypse drawdown, leaving quality businesses oversold
against a tailwind that's structurally getting stronger.
B. Down-selection — value rigor on the candidates
Out of the 15–20 candidates surfaced under the thesis, we apply value-investing
criteria to identify 2–3 stand-outs:
What we want
- Consistent market-share gains — not one-quarter pops
- Fair-to-affordable valuation — not richly priced for perfection
- Uniquely situated for the thesis — leading on AI-driven attack defense, not reactive
- Nimble operators when the thesis rewards speed; scaled incumbents when it rewards distribution
- Real fundamentals — positive FCF or a credible path within a year
What we avoid
- Names already priced for the thesis (consensus, no edge)
- Big platforms that engulf every adjacent trend (security is one tab, not the business)
- Pure-narrative plays — no margin, no share data, just story
- Diluting attention across >3 active picks
- Buying the rip — wait for the drawdown