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STALE Analysis Report
May 13, 2026
44 days ago · 92% complete
Re-run recommended — fundamentals and price action have likely diverged from this snapshot.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

ASTS NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Communication Equipment
Midland, TX 79706, United States IPO 2019 ast-science.com Updated Jun 27, 7:07am
Price
$71.45
Market Cap
$29.1B
Employees
578
Beta
2.63
Avg Volume
22,070,946
CEO
Abel Avellan
Business Description

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. establishes and operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard mobile phones. Through its SpaceMobile service, it delivers mobile internet access to individuals in remote or unserved locations that lack traditional terrestrial mobile coverage, whether on land, across oceans, or during air travel. The company is situated in Midland, Texas.

Business History
Generated: May 13, 2026 10:41am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:07am (just now)
$71.45
+5.83 (+8.88%)
Day Range
$64.51 – $73.20
52-Week Range
$36.08 – $133.86
50-Day MA
$86.23
200-Day MA
$81.18
Volume
20,870,742.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $80.00
Consensus $100.00
High $108.00
(21 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 298,746,000.00
Float 266,036,642.00
Free Float 89.1%
High free float — 89.1% of shares trade freely, ~10.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:07am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 1:46pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: May 13, 2026 10:40am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
CALC
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-53.32
Stock Price: $71.45
EPS (Diluted): -1.34
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
10.10
Stock Price: $71.45
Total Equity: $1.84B
Shares: 255,982,592
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
-53.33
Market Cap: $29.07B
Total Debt: $2.22B
Cash: $2.34B
EBITDA: -$369.93M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$25.2B
Market Cap: $29.07B
Total Debt: $2.22B
Cash: $2.34B
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
API
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
262.16
Stock Price: $71.45
Revenue: $70.92M
Shares: 255,982,592
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
API
355.70
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
53.4%
Gross Profit: $37.89M
Revenue: $70.92M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-405.7%
Operating Income: -$287.71M
Revenue: $70.92M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
-482.2%
Net Income: -$341.94M
Revenue: $70.92M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
-32.3%
Net Income: -$341.94M
Total Equity: $1.84B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-6.4%
Operating Income: -$287.71M
Tax Rate: -0.9%
Equity: $1.84B
Total Debt: $2.22B
Cash: $2.34B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
16.35
Current Assets: $2.46B
Current Liabilities: $150.34M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.21
Short-Term Debt: $14.45M
Long-Term Debt: $2.21B
Total Debt: $2.22B
Total Equity: $1.84B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$0.28
Revenue: $70.92M
Shares: 255,982,592
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$7.19
Total Equity: $1.84B
Shares: 255,982,592
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-4.44
Operating CF: -$71.52M
CapEx: -$1.06B
Shares: 255,982,592
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $71.45
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$341.94M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: May 13, 2026 10:40am
Compares ASTS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: May 13, 2026 10:44:22 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 1:46pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $12.4M $13.8M $0 $4.4M $70.9M
Cost of Revenue $7.6M $6.7M $0 $0 $33.0M
Gross Profit $4.8M $7.1M $0 $4.4M $37.9M
Operating Expenses $88.7M $152.9M $222.4M $247.2M $325.6M
Operating Income -$83.8M -$145.8M -$222.4M -$242.8M -$287.7M
Net Income -$30.6M -$31.6M -$87.6M -$300.1M -$341.9M
EBITDA -$83.8M -$97.6M -$162.0M -$443.0M -$369.9M
EPS $-0.37 $-0.58 $-1.07 $-1.94 $-1.34
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 1:46pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $321.8M $238.6M $85.6M $565.0M $2.3B
Total Current Assets $335.8M $268.3M $106.9M $600.2M $2.5B
Total Assets $443.9M $438.4M $360.9M $954.6M $5.0B
Current Liabilities $21.4M $27.8M $46.2M $75.9M $150.3M
Long-Term Debt $5.0M $4.8M $59.3M $155.6M $2.2B
Total Liabilities $92.0M $78.5M $147.3M $285.4M $2.6B
Total Equity $100.3M $133.5M $99.0M $479.1M $1.8B
Retained Earnings -$70.5M -$102.1M -$189.7M -$489.7M -$831.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 1:46pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$80.1M -$156.5M -$148.9M -$126.1M -$71.5M
Capital Expenditure -$54.8M -$57.3M -$118.8M -$174.1M -$1.1B
Free Cash Flow -$134.9M -$213.7M -$267.7M -$300.3M -$1.1B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $25.9M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $281.8M -$85.3M -$151.2M $479.4M $2.2B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:07am (just now)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $751.8M
$656.6M – $826.8M
$1.9B
$1.9B – $1.9B
$3.2B
$2.5B – $3.8B
$4.1B
$3.3B – $4.9B
EBITDA -$451.1M
-$496.1M – -$394.0M
-$1.1B
-$1.1B – -$1.1B
-$1.9B
-$2.3B – -$1.5B
-$2.5B
-$2.9B – -$2.0B
Net Income $175.3M
-$549.7M – $588.1M
$278.2M
$159.1M – $397.4M
$822.8M
$610.4M – $1.0B
$1.0B
$759.4M – $1.3B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 1:46pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +11.4% -100.0% +1,505.2%
Gross Profit Growth +46.9% -100.0% +757.5%
Operating Income Growth -73.9% -52.6% -9.2% -18.5%
Net Income Growth -3.6% -176.7% -242.7% -13.9%
EBITDA Growth -16.4% -66.1% -173.4% +16.5%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-22 Avellan Abel Antonio J-Other 2,500,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Cisneros Adriana A-Award 2,124.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Torres Julio A. A-Award 2,124.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 RUBIN RONALD L A-Award 2,124.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 Wibergh Johan A-Award 2,124.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-12 SARNOFF RICHARD A-Award 2,124.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Johnson Andrew Martin S-Sale 45,809.00 $93.81 $4.3M
2026-06-06 Wibergh Johan F-InKind 208.00 $93.60 $19,469
2026-06-05 Yao Huiwen S-Sale 40,000.00 $96.37 $3.9M
2026-05-30 Avellan Abel Antonio F-InKind 32,754.00 $113.41 $3.7M
2026-05-30 Bernal Maya F-InKind 2,621.00 $113.41 $297,248
2026-05-30 Wisniewski Scott F-InKind 16,377.00 $113.41 $1.9M
2026-05-30 Johnson Andrew Martin F-InKind 16,377.00 $113.41 $1.9M
2026-05-30 Gupta Shanti B. F-InKind 21,275.00 $113.41 $2.4M
2025-05-27 Wisniewski Scott S-Sale 25,904.00 $126.64 $3.3M
2026-05-22 Yao Huiwen A-Award 30,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Johnson Andrew Martin S-Sale 5,000.00 $90.25 $451,250
2026-05-18 Gupta Shanti B. A-Award 66,667.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-18 Gupta Shanti B. F-InKind 11,350.00 $86.83 $985,521
2026-05-19 Yao Huiwen X-InTheMoney 40,000.00 $0.06 $2,564
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ASTS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-05-13 10:44:51
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

Looking at the raw numbers first: ASTS pulled in $70.9M in 2025 revenue (up from $4.4M in 2024), but the quarterly trajectory is wildly lumpy — $54.3M in Q4'25, then crashing to $14.7M in Q1'26 with a $191M net loss, the worst quarterly bottom-line print in the dataset. That's not a SaaS-like ramp; it's milestone/government contract revenue lumpiness (likely USSF or gateway equipment recognition), which makes the 1,505% YoY headline meaningless as a run-rate. Capex of $1.06B against $2.34B cash means the company has roughly 2 years of runway at current burn before another raise — and FCF of -$1.14B in 2025 will accelerate as they build out the Block 2 BlueBird constellation (they need ~45-60 satellites for continuous coverage vs. the 5 currently in orbit). Gross margin of 53% on $71M of mixed revenue tells you nothing about unit economics at scale.

On the prior models: the synthesis verdict of "Priced for Perfection" at 429x P/S is directionally correct but lazy — P/S is the wrong frame for a constellation business where revenue won't meaningfully ramp until 2027+. The more honest critique is EV/invested-capital and dilution math: ASTS has issued stock aggressively and the April 2026 insider sales of 3.04M shares (~$227M at current prices) plus the synthesis's cited $451M total are a genuine red flag — not because insiders ever time tops, but because the cap table is going to keep expanding. The "pre_profit_growth" classification with confidence 1 is essentially the model admitting it doesn't know what to do; this is a pre-revenue infrastructure call option, not a growth company. Market Forces calling "Strong Headwinds" while Pre-Flight calls it a legitimate call option on a $1T market — those aren't actually contradictory, they're the bear and bull case stated separately, and neither resolves the question.

The contrarian bull case the models underweight: ASTS has demonstrated technical viability (voice/video calls direct to unmodified smartphones), has signed AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Rakuten as partners, holds defense contracts that de-risk near-term cash needs, and operates in a market where Starlink Direct-to-Cell is the only credible competitor — and SpaceX's offering currently requires T-Mobile partnership and is bandwidth-limited compared to ASTS's larger phased-array design. If you believe in the technology, $30B is not obviously crazy for a duopolist in global D2D connectivity; Iridium trades at $3B with vastly inferior tech and addressable market. The contrarian bear case the models also underweight: the launch cadence is the entire thesis, and ASTS is dependent on SpaceX (a direct competitor) and Blue Origin for launches, with Block 2 satellites delayed multiple times already. One launch failure or 12-month delay and the dilution required to bridge could be 30-50% of the current cap table.

Where the data is thin: there's no debt figure shown, but ASTS has ~$460M in convertible notes outstanding that the file omits — material for a company burning $1B+ annually. The "Neutral Insider Activity" tag is wrong given $200M+ in recent sales at these prices; that should be flagged as bearish, not neutral. The current ratio of 16.3 is meaningless when your liabilities are mostly long-dated and your real constraint is constellation capex. Revenue confidence labeled "Moderate" with "decelerating" quarterly trend is misleading — Q4'25's $54M was almost certainly a one-time defense/equipment milestone, not a baseline. I largely agree with the synthesis "Priced for Perfection" verdict but think the framing is incomplete: this isn't an overvalued operating company, it's a call option whose strike price keeps rising as dilution compounds. At $74.76 you're paying for ~2028 commercial success at high probability. Fair value as a probability-weighted call option, using 35% success at $150-200/share and 65% failure/dilution at $15-25, gives roughly $62-80 — meaning the stock is close to fair as a binary bet, but with negatively skewed risk because the dilution path is near-certain and the success path requires flawless execution. I'd dissent slightly from "Priced for Perfection" — it's priced for *probable* success with brutal downside, which is different. Not a short (squeeze ris

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-05-13 10:45:15
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's "probable success" pricing stance. At $74.76, ASTS is overvalued given the execution risks and dilution trajectory, with fair value closer to $50-$60 accounting for the speculative nature of its business model.

AST SpaceMobile's financials paint a picture of a company deep in its pre-profit phase, marked by significant volatility and substantial capital requirements. Revenue soared to $70.9M for 2025, a dramatic rise from $4.4M in 2024, but this surge is misleading when considering the inconsistency in quarterly figures, notably the plunge from $54.3M in Q4 2025 to $14.7M in Q1 2026. This pattern suggests revenue driven by milestone payments rather than steady growth, which is typical for infrastructure projects waiting on specific achievements rather than an ongoing revenue stream. The net losses remain alarmingly high, with a $191M net loss in Q1 2026 alone, indicating a business model heavily reliant on continued capital infusion. The gross margin of 53% on fluctuating revenue levels does not provide a clear indication of potential profitability at scale. Cash reserves of $2.34B might seem robust, but with negative free cash flow of $1.14B in 2025, the company faces a relentless cash burn that foreshadows additional capital raises.

Opus rightly identifies AST SpaceMobile as a speculative investment, primarily due to its high valuation relative to its revenue and the existing uncertainty around its business model. While Opus notes the "Priced for Perfection" verdict, I agree with their critique that focusing solely on the P/S ratio is inadequate for such a capital-intensive entity. The critical issue here is not just revenue growth but the ongoing dilution risk as ASTS raises further capital to fund its satellite constellation, a point Opus correctly highlights with the insider sales and stock issuance. I diverge slightly from Opus's conclusion that the market is pricing for "probable success." Given the negative cash flow and dependency on successful satellite launches, I view the current pricing as excessively optimistic, particularly when factoring in potential delays and competition from companies like SpaceX.

Opus's analysis of the competitive landscape is thorough, acknowledging ASTS's technical achievements and partnerships with major telecoms like AT&T and Verizon, which add credibility to its strategic vision. However, the dependency on competitors like SpaceX for satellite launches introduces significant execution risk. Opus's assertion that the insider sales should be flagged as bearish rather than neutral aligns with my interpretation—selling $200M+ at current valuations suggests insiders might be less confident in near-term share value appreciation, a view that contradicts the "Neutral Insider Activity" classification.

A skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating ASTS's technological edge and the potential first-mover advantage in the nascent direct-to-device satellite market. They could posit that the partnerships with major telecom providers are evidence of strategic positioning that could yield substantial market share, and that the market's optimism is justified given the transformative potential of ASTS's services. Additionally, the large cash reserves and lack of traditional debt might be viewed as strategic strengths that provide more flexibility than competitors encumbered with debt.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30