Project Timeline — From Today to First Operational Campaign

Draft Medium Research 6,653 words Created Mar 4, 2026

The Claw — Project Timeline & Critical Path Analysis

> Status: Research complete > Last updated: 2026-03-04 > Scope: From today (March 2026) to first operational campaign in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch > Vessel: Converted Aframax tanker, 245m LOA, plasma gasification at 5-10 TPD, operating from Honolulu

1. Executive Summary 2. Comparable Project Timelines 3. Phase 0: Foundation (Months 0-6) 4. Phase 1: Proof of Concept (Months 3-21) 5. Phase 2: Design & Acquisition (Months 15-30) 6. Phase 3: Conversion & Build (Months 27-48) 7. Phase 4: Commissioning & First Campaign (Months 45-54) 8. Critical Path Analysis 9. Decision Gates — GO/NO-GO Criteria 10. Parallel Workstreams Map 11. Funding Milestones Aligned to Timeline 12. Risk-Adjusted Timeline Scenarios 13. Sources

1. Executive Summary

Three Scenarios

Scenario	First Operational Campaign	Total Duration	Key Assumptions
Best case	Q3 2029	42 months	PoC compressed, hull pre-identified, Chinese shipyard, no regulatory surprises
Expected case	Q1 2031	54-60 months	Standard PoC timeline, normal procurement, moderate regulatory iteration
Worst case	Q3 2032	72-78 months	PoC delays, PyroGenesis complications, regulatory pushback on London Protocol, shipyard overruns

Why This Takes 4-6 Years

This is not a software project. It combines:

Novel technology validation (plasma gasification of ocean plastic — never done before)
Marine classification of a novel vessel type (no existing class notation exists)
Heavy industrial conversion (comparable to small FPSO conversions: 35 months average)
Regulatory navigation of ambiguous international treaties (London Protocol interpretation)
Multi-round capital raising ($68-173M total CAPEX)

Every comparable project — Ocean Cleanup (12 years concept to System 03), PyroGenesis PAWDS (11 years from delivery to first deployment), FPSO conversions (35 months contract to first oil) — confirms that 4-6 years from funded start to operations is aggressive but achievable.

2. Comparable Project Timelines

The Ocean Cleanup — System 03

Milestone	Date	Duration
Concept (Boyan Slat's TEDx talk)	2013	—
Crowdfunding ($2.2M)	2014	Year 1
North Sea prototype test (100m segment)	2016	Year 3
System 001 deployed from San Francisco	September 2018	Year 5
System 001 failed, returned to port	January 2019	Year 6
System 002 "Jenny" deployed	July 2021	Year 8
System 03 transition begins	2022	Year 9
System 03 fully deployed to GPGP	August 2023	Year 10
50,000 metric tons removed (cumulative)	January 2026	Year 13

Key lesson: 5 years from funded concept to first deployment, but the first system failed. 10 years to a working full-scale system. The Ocean Cleanup had massive funding ($100M+) and public support. The Claw should assume similar iteration needs.

Applicable to The Claw: The Claw benefits from existing vessel conversion practices (not building from scratch) and proven plasma technology (PyroGenesis PRRS has operated on land). The innovation is integration, not invention. This should compress the timeline vs. Ocean Cleanup's ground-up development.

PyroGenesis PAWDS — Contract to Sea Deployment

Milestone	Date	Duration
US Navy evaluates waste management technologies	~2001-2011	10 years evaluation
Factory Acceptance Testing (FAT) in Montreal	May 2011	—
First PAWDS delivered to CVN-78 shipyard	Late 2011	—
USS Gerald R. Ford launched	November 2013	2 years after delivery
CVN-78 commissioned	July 2017	6 years after delivery
First operational deployment with PAWDS	October 2022	11 years after delivery
CVN-79 PAWDS delivered	Pre-2024	—
CVN-80/81 two-ship contract ($11.5M)	2020	—

Key lesson: The PAWDS timeline is distorted by aircraft carrier construction schedules, not plasma technology readiness. The plasma system was ready in 2011. For The Claw, the plasma system readiness (post-PoC) is the gating item, not the vessel.

Applicable to The Claw: PyroGenesis built the PAWDS to spec in roughly 8-13 months (engineering design: 8 months, fabrication: 13 months for the military prototype). A civilian marine PRRS unit should take 12-18 months from contract to factory acceptance.

FPSO Tanker Conversions — Industry Average

Metric	Duration	Source
Contract to first oil (conversion)	34-35 months	Industry average across multiple projects
Contract to first oil (newbuild)	55-57 months	Industry average
Standardized hull (SBM Fast4Ward)	12 months less than conventional	SBM Offshore program
Range of actual projects	15-60 months	Highly variable by complexity

Key lesson: FPSO conversions average ~35 months from contract award to first production. The Claw's conversion is simpler than a full FPSO (one processing unit vs. a complete oil production facility), but includes novel systems requiring more regulatory scrutiny.

Applicable to The Claw: The conversion itself (steel work, systems installation, outfitting) should take 18-24 months at a competent shipyard. Add 6-12 months for engineering design review with classification society. Total from hull purchase to operational: 24-36 months.

Gaia First — Ocean Waste 2 Energy Vessel

Milestone	Date	Status
Concept announced	~2020	—
UNESCO partnership	2021	—
First funding round sought (EUR 750K)	~2022	Unknown if closed
Planned maiden voyage	2024 (original estimate)	Not achieved
Current status	2026	Still in development

Key lesson: Gaia First has been working on an ocean waste-to-energy vessel for 5+ years and has not yet launched. Their plan to eliminate 90% of the GPGP with 2 ships in 5 years was unrealistic. Under-capitalization appears to be the primary bottleneck.

Applicable to The Claw: Validates that ocean processing vessels require serious capital commitment. A EUR 750K funding target is insufficient. The Claw's $1.5-4.5M PoC budget and $68-173M total CAPEX are more realistic for the scope.

The Manta (SeaCleaners)

Milestone	Date	Status
Concept by Yvan Bourgnon	2016	—
Association founded	2016	—
Vessel design contract	~2019	—
Planned launch	Originally 2024	Delayed
Current status	2026	Under construction, launch TBD

Key lesson: Even with a purpose-built vessel (not a conversion), 7+ years from concept to launch. The Manta is a smaller vessel (56m) with simpler processing (pyrolysis, not plasma). Construction delays are endemic in novel vessel projects.

3. Phase 0: Foundation (Months 0-6)

Calendar: March 2026 - September 2026 Capital required: $500K-$1M (Pre-seed: founder + angels) Purpose: Legal groundwork, team formation, PoC funding secured

Activities

Activity	Duration	Cost	Deliverable
Legal opinion on London Protocol	3-6 months	$50-100K	Written opinion from specialist maritime law firm (Ince, HFW, Norton Rose Fulbright) on whether plasma gasification constitutes "incineration at sea"
Classification society pre-engagement	2-3 months	$10-30K	Informal consultation with DNV or Lloyd's Register. Identify classification pathway and data requirements for AiP
PyroGenesis engagement	1-2 months	$5-15K	MOU for Stage 2 test campaign access. Begin licensing discussions
Team recruitment (Phase 1 core)	Ongoing	$50-100K	Naval architect, marine engineer, environmental counsel retained
Business plan & pitch deck	2-3 months	$20-50K	Investor-grade documentation for PoC funding round
Grant applications submitted	3-6 months	$10-30K	ARPA-E, NOAA Marine Debris, NRC IRAP (via PyroGenesis)
Verra methodology scoping	3-6 months	$20-50K	Determine pathway for ocean plastic destruction credits
Advisory board formation	1-3 months	Equity/honoraria	Maritime operations, plasma engineering, environmental markets, regulatory

Decision Gate 0: PROCEED TO POC?

GO if:

Legal opinion provides a credible pathway (not necessarily definitive approval, but no hard legal barrier)
Classification society confirms the concept is classifiable in principle
PyroGenesis confirms facility access and willingness to partner
PoC funding ($1.5-4.5M) secured or high-confidence commitments

NO-GO if:

Legal opinion concludes plasma gasification IS incineration under London Protocol with no viable counter-argument
Classification society identifies a fundamental safety barrier that cannot be engineered around
PyroGenesis refuses engagement or enters insolvency without alternatives

4. Phase 1: Proof of Concept (Months 3-21)

Calendar: June 2026 - December 2027 Capital required: $1.5-4.5M (Seed round) Purpose: Validate that plasma gasification works on ocean plastic. Produce data for classification society AiP and investor Series A

Stage 1: Feedstock Characterization (Months 3-5)

Activity	Duration	Cost
Procure 500 kg ocean plastic samples (Oceanworks + 5 Gyres)	4-6 weeks	$15-50K
Laboratory analysis: proximate, ultimate, calorific value, chlorine, salt, heavy metals, polymer ID	4-6 weeks	$20-40K
Rinse effectiveness testing	2-3 weeks	$5-10K
Analysis and reporting	2-3 weeks	$10-20K

GO/NO-GO Gate 1 (Month 5):

Calorific value >= 25 MJ/kg (dry) for 2 of 3 batches
Chlorine < 2% after rinse
Salt reducible below 0.5%
No showstopper heavy metals

Stage 2: Bench-Scale Plasma Testing (Months 5-12)

Activity	Duration	Cost
PyroGenesis engineering preparation	6-8 weeks	$50-100K
Feedstock procurement for testing (5+ tonnes via Ocean Cleanup or charter expedition)	4-8 weeks	$30-80K
Test campaign at PyroGenesis Montreal (PRRS 2 TPD prototype)	8-16 weeks	$150-400K
25-30 test runs across feedstock batches, moisture levels, feed rates, torch power	(included above)	—
3-5 extended runs at optimal conditions (24-72 hours each)	(included above)	—
Independent laboratory analysis (slag TCLP, emissions, condensate)	4-6 weeks	$40-100K
Third-party verification of results	2-4 weeks	$20-50K
Data analysis and investor-grade reporting	4-6 weeks	$30-70K

GO/NO-GO Gate 2 (Month 12):

Net energy ratio > 1.0 at >= 15% moisture for at least one batch
Syngas LHV >= 8 MJ/Nm3
Dioxin/furan < 0.1 ng TEQ/Nm3
Slag passes TCLP (non-hazardous)
No catastrophic equipment failure from salt/chlorine

Stage 3: Extended Pilot Campaign (Months 12-21)

Activity	Duration	Cost
Three extended campaigns (2-4 weeks continuous each)	12-16 weeks	$400K-1.2M
Pre-processing line build and test (shredder, rinse, centrifuge, dryer)	6-8 weeks lead, runs during campaigns	$200-600K
Additional feedstock procurement (5-15 tonnes)	4-8 weeks	$50-200K
Continuous monitoring and reliability engineering	Duration of campaigns	$50-150K
Certified emissions stack testing	Per campaign	$50-150K
Final comprehensive report (investor + regulator + classification society grade)	6-8 weeks	$50-100K

GO/NO-GO Gate 3 (Month 21):

Uptime > 80% across all three campaigns
Net energy ratio confirmed > 1.0 at realistic moisture
Emissions consistently within MARPOL Annex VI limits
No failure requiring > 48 hours repair
Pre-processing demonstrates viable feedstock preparation
Dataset sufficient for DNV/Lloyd's AiP submission

5. Phase 2: Design & Acquisition (Months 15-30)

Calendar: June 2027 - September 2028 Capital required: $15-30M (Series A) Purpose: Classification society approval, hull acquisition, conversion engineering, PRRS procurement

Note: Phase 2 overlaps with the tail end of Phase 1. Key Phase 2 activities begin during Stage 3 of the PoC, once Gate 2 (bench-scale success) provides sufficient confidence.

Classification Society Pathway

Step	Duration	Timing	Cost
Formal AiP submission — concept design, PoC data package, operational profile, hazard identification	3-6 months	Months 15-21	$200-500K
AiP review and issuance — class society evaluates concept, issues AiP (or conditional AiP with requirements)	3-6 months from submission	Months 18-27	(included above)
Basic design review — hull structural analysis, stability calcs, fire/safety plans, PRRS integration design, HAZID/HAZOP	6-12 months	Months 21-33	$500K-1M
Class design approval — formal approval of conversion design	At end of basic design	Month 30-33	(included above)

Total classification timeline to design approval: 15-21 months from first formal submission

This aligns with the regulatory pathway research (Phase 1: 3-6 months for AiP, Phase 2: 6-12 months for basic design review). The classification process is on the critical path — it must be substantially complete before shipyard conversion begins.

Hull Acquisition

Step	Duration	Timing	Notes
Broker engagement	1 month	Month 18	Instruct 3-4 brokers (Clarksons, SSY, Fearnleys, Xclusiv) simultaneously
Market search & shortlisting	2-4 months	Months 18-22	Identify 5-10 candidate 17-22 year old Aframax hulls
Condition surveys	2-4 weeks per vessel	Months 22-24	Class surveyor + naval architect inspection. Hull thickness gauging, machinery condition, structural assessment
Negotiation & purchase	2-3 months	Months 24-27	MOA signing, deposit, flag transfer, delivery
Drydock inspection	4-6 weeks	Month 27-28	Full drydock survey, class approval for conversion baseline

Hull cost: $12-25M for 17-22 year old Aframax (current market: elevated but softening for older tonnage)

Key risk: Hull acquisition timing depends on market availability. The search can begin speculatively during PoC Stage 3, but firm commitment requires Series A funding and Gate 2 passage. A 6-month window from search to delivery is realistic; 12 months if the right vessel is not immediately available.

PRRS Plasma Unit Procurement

Step	Duration	Timing	Notes
Licensing agreement with PyroGenesis	3-6 months negotiation	Months 15-21	Perpetual license, IP escrow, marine application rights
Marine PRRS engineering design	8-12 months	Months 18-30	Marinization: vibration isolation, corrosion protection, class-approved materials, marine electrical
Component procurement	6-10 months	Months 22-32	Graphite electrodes, refractory linings, plasma torches, transformer, cooling system
Factory fabrication	8-13 months	Months 26-39	Assembly at PyroGenesis Montreal or licensed fabricator
Factory Acceptance Testing (FAT)	4-6 weeks	Month 39-40	Run with test feedstock, verify all parameters

PRRS cost: $15-30M (land-based unit + 20-40% marinization premium)

Critical path note: PRRS procurement is the longest single lead-time item. It MUST begin during PoC Stage 3 (Month 15-18) with preliminary engineering, even before Gate 3. The risk is that Gate 3 fails and the engineering work is wasted ($200-500K). This is an acceptable risk to avoid a 12+ month delay to the overall project.

Parallel During Phase 2

Workstream	Duration	Months
Flag state selection & registration	3-6 months	18-24
MARPOL compliance engineering	Ongoing	18-30
Methanol synthesis feasibility study (if syngas H2:CO ratio supports it)	4-6 months	18-24
Collection system detailed design	6-9 months	21-30
Verra methodology development (continues from Phase 0)	Ongoing, 2-5 years total	0-60
Corporate sponsorship negotiations	Ongoing	18-36
Crew recruitment planning	3-6 months	24-30

6. Phase 3: Conversion & Build (Months 27-48)

Calendar: June 2028 - March 2030 Capital required: $50-100M (Series A remainder + DFI debt + blended finance) Purpose: Convert the acquired hull into an operational plasma processing vessel

Shipyard Selection

Factor	Chinese Yard	Turkish Yard	Singapore Yard	European Yard
Labour cost	Lowest	Low-medium	Medium-high	Highest
Conversion cost estimate	$15-20M	$18-25M	$25-35M	$30-40M
Quality track record	Variable (select carefully)	Good for conversions	Excellent	Excellent
FPSO conversion experience	Extensive (COSCO, Shanghai Waigaoqiao)	Limited	Extensive (Keppel, Sembcorp)	Moderate
Classification surveyor access	DNV/LR present at major yards	DNV/LR present	DNV/LR present	DNV/LR headquartered nearby
Proximity to Honolulu	Closer than Europe	Distant	Moderate	Distant

Recommendation: Chinese yard (COSCO Dalian, Shanghai Waigaoqiao, or Zhoushan) for cost efficiency, or Singapore (Keppel) for quality and FPSO conversion expertise. Selection depends on Series A budget constraints.

Conversion Timeline

Phase	Duration	Months	Key Activities
Mobilization & strip-out	2-3 months	27-30	Vessel arrives at shipyard. Strip cargo systems (pumps, COW, IGS, cargo heating, manifolds). ~500-800 tonnes removed. Tank cleaning and gas-freeing.
Structural modifications	4-6 months	30-36	Deck reinforcement for processing equipment (800-1,200 tonnes new steel). Reactor foundation (80-120 tonnes). Fire/blast walls (300-500 tonnes). Exhaust stack structure. Tank conversions for ballast, freshwater, waste storage.
Systems installation	6-8 months	34-42	PRRS reactor and gas cleaning installation. Syngas engine/genset installation. Collection system (booms, davits, conveyors, dewatering). Electrical upgrade (1-2 MW new generation). Piping (waste feed, cooling, syngas, fire suppression). Accommodation expansion (28-50 berths). Navigation and comms upgrade.
PRRS installation	3-4 months	38-42	Reactor module lowered into foundation. Torch alignment and connection. Gas cleaning train hookup. Power and cooling connections. Control system integration.
Outfitting & finishing	2-3 months	42-45	Painting, insulation, safety equipment (lifeboats, fire suppression). Helipad installation. HVAC commissioning. Galley and accommodation fit-out.
Harbour trials	4-6 weeks	45-46	All systems tested alongside. PRRS fired with test feedstock. Stability verification (inclining experiment). Safety system tests.

Note: Many of these activities overlap. Structural work and systems installation are partially concurrent. The PRRS can be installed as soon as the reactor foundation is ready, even while other systems work continues.

Total conversion duration: 18-24 months from vessel arrival at shipyard to completion of harbour trials.

This aligns with FPSO conversion benchmarks (35 months contract to first oil includes engineering design time; physical conversion is 18-24 months of that).

Classification During Conversion

Activity	Timing	Notes
Detail design review	Throughout Months 27-42	Class surveyors review engineering drawings as they are produced. Iterative approval process.
Construction supervision	Throughout Months 30-45	Class surveyor stationed at shipyard. Witnesses critical welding, testing, installations.
PRRS FAT witness	Month 39-40	Class surveyor witnesses factory acceptance test at PyroGenesis
Equipment certification	Throughout	All major equipment (PRRS, generators, switchboard, fire systems) certified to class standards
Stability booklet approval	Month 44-45	Post-conversion stability calculations approved
Safety equipment survey	Month 45-46	Life-saving, fire-fighting, navigation equipment verified

7. Phase 4: Commissioning & First Campaign (Months 45-54)

Calendar: December 2029 - September 2030 Capital required: Part of Phase 3 build budget + initial OPEX funding ($5-10M) Purpose: Sea trials, transit to Honolulu, first operational campaign in the GPGP

Sea Trials

Activity	Duration	Months	Location
Builder's sea trials	1-2 weeks	46	Near shipyard
PRRS sea trials (processing while underway or station-keeping)	2-4 weeks	46-47	Near shipyard, controlled conditions
Acceptance trials (owner + class + flag state)	1-2 weeks	47-48	Near shipyard
Defect rectification	2-4 weeks	48-49	Shipyard
Final class surveys and certification	2-3 weeks	49-50	Shipyard

Transit & Mobilization

Activity	Duration	Months	Notes
Transit from shipyard to Honolulu	2-4 weeks	50-51	Depends on shipyard location (China: ~14 days, Europe: ~28 days via Suez/Panama)
Honolulu port setup	2-4 weeks	51-52	Bunkering, provisioning, crew boarding, final inspections. Establish shore-side logistics (slag offloading, fuel supply, crew rotation)
USCG inspection (if US-flagged)	1-2 weeks	52	Coast Guard inspection for vessels operating from US ports
Regulatory clearances	Ongoing	50-52	Flag state operating permit, USCG notification, port state control

First Operational Campaign

Activity	Duration	Months	Notes
Transit Honolulu to GPGP	3 days	52-53	~1,000nm at 14-15 knots
Initial operations (shakedown)	14 days	53	Reduced processing rate, system calibration, crew familiarization
First full campaign	28 days	53-54	Full 28-day operating cycle at 5-10 TPD target
Return to Honolulu	3 days	54	First port call with processed material

First Campaign Success Criteria

Metric	Target	Minimum
Days on station	28	14
Processing throughput	5-10 TPD average	3 TPD
System uptime	> 80%	> 60%
Plastic collected and processed	140-280 tonnes	42 tonnes
Safety incidents	Zero serious	Zero fatalities
Environmental compliance	100% MARPOL	100%

8. Critical Path Analysis

The Sequential Chain

The longest sequential dependency chain determines the minimum project duration. Here is the critical path:

CRITICAL PATH (cannot be compressed without parallel risk-taking):
Legal Opinion (3-6 mo)
  ↓
PoC Stage 1: Feedstock Characterization (2-3 mo)
  ↓ Gate 1
PoC Stage 2: Bench-Scale Plasma Testing (4-8 mo)
  ↓ Gate 2
PoC Stage 3: Extended Pilot Campaign (6-12 mo)
  ↓ Gate 3
AiP Submission + Review (6-12 mo) ← OVERLAPS with Stage 3 tail
  ↓
Basic Design Review (6-12 mo) ← OVERLAPS with hull search/purchase
  ↓
Hull Purchase + Delivery to Shipyard (3-6 mo)
  ↓
Shipyard Conversion (18-24 mo) ← PRRS FAT happens during this window
  ↓
Sea Trials + Commissioning (3-4 mo)
  ↓
Transit to Honolulu + First Campaign (2-3 mo)TOTAL SEQUENTIAL: 53-90 months (4.4-7.5 years)
WITH OVERLAPS: 42-60 months (3.5-5 years)

What Blocks What

This Activity...	...Cannot Begin Until
PoC Stage 2 (bench testing)	Gate 1 passed (feedstock viable)
PoC Stage 3 (extended pilot)	Gate 2 passed (plasma processing viable)
Formal AiP submission	Stage 2 data available (syngas quality, emissions, slag data)
Hull purchase commitment	Series A funded + Gate 2 passed
PRRS marine engineering contract	Gate 2 passed + PyroGenesis license signed
Shipyard conversion start	Hull delivered + Class design approval (at least conditional) + PRRS engineering substantially complete
PRRS installation at shipyard	PRRS factory acceptance testing complete
Sea trials	Conversion complete + class harbour trial approval
First operational campaign	Class certification + flag state operating permit + crew trained

Compression Opportunities (Parallel Risk-Taking)

These activities can run in parallel to compress the timeline, but each carries risk if the preceding gate fails:

Parallel Activity	Normal Start	Compressed Start	Risk
Classification pre-engagement	After PoC	During Phase 0 (Month 1)	Low — $10-30K, builds relationships
AiP submission	After Stage 3	During Stage 3 (Month 15)	Low-Medium — uses Stage 2 data, update with Stage 3 data
Hull search	After Gate 3	During Stage 3 (Month 12)	Medium — search is free, commitment requires funding
PRRS marine engineering	After Gate 3	After Gate 2 (Month 12)	Medium — $200-500K at risk if Gate 3 fails
Series A fundraising	After Gate 3	During Stage 3 (Month 15)	Low — use Stage 2 results for preliminary pitch
Corporate sponsor engagement	After PoC	During PoC (Month 6)	Low — relationship building, no commitments

Recommendation: Execute ALL compression opportunities except PRRS engineering. The cost of speculative work ($50-100K for parallel pre-engagement, search, fundraising prep) is negligible against the 6-12 month time savings. PRRS engineering before Gate 3 is a judgment call — if Stage 2 results are strong, begin preliminary marine engineering.

9. Decision Gates — GO/NO-GO Criteria

Gate 0: Commit to PoC (Month 6)

Criterion	GO	NO-GO
Legal opinion	Credible pathway exists	Hard legal barrier, no counter-argument
Classification	Concept is classifiable	Fundamental safety barrier
PyroGenesis	Facility access confirmed	No access, no alternatives
Funding	$1.5M+ secured	Cannot raise PoC funding

Gate 1: Feedstock Viable (Month 5)

Criterion	GO	KILL
Calorific value (dry)	>= 25 MJ/kg (2/3 batches)	< 20 MJ/kg (all batches)
Chlorine after rinse	< 2%	> 5%
Salt after rinse	< 0.5%	> 2% (irreducible)
Heavy metals	No hazardous classification	Slag would be hazardous waste

Gate 2: Plasma Processing Viable (Month 12)

Criterion	GO	CONDITIONAL	KILL
Net energy ratio	> 1.5	0.7-1.5	< 0.7
Syngas LHV	> 10 MJ/Nm3	6-10 MJ/Nm3	< 6 MJ/Nm3
Dioxin/furan	< 0.05 ng TEQ/Nm3	0.05-0.1	> 0.1
Slag TCLP	Pass	—	Fail
Equipment condition	No salt damage	Accelerated corrosion (engineerable)	Severe corrosion < 100 hrs

Gate 3: Operational Viability (Month 21)

Criterion	GO to Phase 2	CONDITIONAL	KILL
Uptime	> 80%	60-80%	< 60%
Energy ratio (realistic moisture)	> 1.0 confirmed	0.7-1.0 (supplemental diesel)	< 0.7
Emissions vs. MARPOL	Consistently within limits	Marginal (needs better gas cleaning)	Cannot meet limits
Pre-processing	Viable	Needs more development	Energy-prohibitive
Data sufficiency	Enough for AiP	Partial — needs more testing	Fundamental unknowns remain

Gate 4: Commit to Conversion (Month 27)

Criterion	GO	NO-GO
AiP issued	Yes (or conditional AiP with manageable conditions)	Refused
Hull acquired	Purchase completed or LOI signed	No suitable hull available
PRRS on order	License signed, engineering underway	PyroGenesis cannot deliver
Funding	$50M+ secured (combination of equity, debt, grants)	Insufficient capital
Regulatory	Flag state engagement positive	Flag state refuses to permit

Gate 5: Proceed to Operations (Month 50)

Criterion	GO	NO-GO
Class certification	Certificate of Class issued	Outstanding class conditions preventing operation
Sea trials	All acceptance criteria met	PRRS fails at sea
Regulatory	Operating permits in hand	Missing permits
Crew	Trained and certified	Insufficient qualified crew
Insurance	P&I and hull & machinery cover bound	Cannot obtain insurance

10. Parallel Workstreams Map

Month:  0    3    6    9   12   15   18   21   24   27   30   33   36   39   42   45   48   51   54
        |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |
LEGAL:  [===Legal Opinion====]
        [=========================Verra Methodology (2-5 year process, continues beyond chart)===...
        [===Flag State Research=====]
                                          [====Flag State Registration====]
POC:         [S1==][====Stage 2========][===========Stage 3================]
                  G1                   G2                                  G3
CLASS:  [Pre-engage]        [====AiP Submission + Review======]
                                               [==========Basic Design Review==========]
                                                                    [====Detail Design Review (continues into conversion)====]
HULL:                                    [===Search===][Survey][===Purchase===][Delivery]
PRRS:                  [===License Negotiation===]
                                    [=======Marine Engineering Design===========]
                                                        [=====Component Procurement======]
                                                                    [=======Fabrication=======][FAT]
SHIPYARD:                                                           [Strip][===Structural===]
                                                                                 [=====Systems Installation=====]
                                                                                          [===PRRS Install===]
                                                                                                    [Outfitting]
                                                                                                         [Trials]
FUNDING: [Pre-seed][=====Seed Round=====]
                              [=========Series A============]
                                                  [============Build Funding (DFI debt + equity)============]
MEDIA:   [Brand/Story]     [PoC Content]          [=====Campaign Building=====][======Launch Campaign=======]OPS:                                                             [=====Crew Recruitment=====]
                                                                          [Honolulu Base Setup]
                                                                                              [Transit][FIRST CAMPAIGN]

Key Observations from the Workstream Map

1. The classification pathway is the hidden critical path. While PoC gets all the attention, the AiP + basic design review takes 12-18 months and cannot begin properly until PoC Stage 2 data exists. Starting pre-engagement in Month 1 is essential.

2. PRRS fabrication is the long pole. 18-24 months from engineering start to FAT. If it begins at Month 18 (after Gate 2), FAT is at Month 39-42, which must happen BEFORE installation at the shipyard (Month 38-42). This is razor-thin. Starting preliminary marine engineering at Month 12-15 provides necessary buffer.

3. Hull acquisition is NOT on the critical path — surprisingly. A 17-22 year old Aframax can be purchased in 3-6 months. The hull can arrive at the shipyard while conversion engineering is still being approved, with strip-out work starting immediately.

4. Funding must lead activities by 6-12 months. Series A must close by Month 18-24 to fund hull purchase (Month 24-27) and PRRS procurement (Month 18+). Build funding must close by Month 30-33 to fund conversion start (Month 27-30).

11. Funding Milestones Aligned to Timeline

What Must Exist Before Each Round

Round	Amount	Timing	Prerequisites for Investors
Pre-seed	$500K-1M	Month 0-3	Legal opinion commissioned. PyroGenesis MOU. Credible team. Business plan. Advisory board.
Seed	$2-5M	Month 3-12	Legal opinion received (positive). Gate 1 passed. PyroGenesis test campaign contracted. Grant applications submitted. Preliminary investor interest.
Series A	$15-30M	Month 15-24	Gate 2 passed (bench-scale success). AiP submitted or in progress. PoC data package (energy balance, emissions, slag). Corporate sponsor LOI ($1M+). Media presence established. Hull candidates identified.
Build (debt + equity)	$50-100M	Month 24-36	Gate 3 passed (operational viability). AiP issued. Hull purchased. PRRS on order. Class design approval in progress. Revenue projections backed by PoC data. DFI term sheets. Corporate naming rights deal.
OPEX bridge	$5-10M	Month 45-50	Vessel conversion >80% complete. Sea trials imminent. Operating permits in hand. Crew recruited. First-year OPEX budget locked.

Funding Source Alignment

Source	Round	Amount	Rationale
Founder + angels	Pre-seed	$200-500K	Personal commitment, early believers
Schmidt Marine Technology Partners	Pre-seed/Seed	$100-300K	Ocean technology validation
Crowdfunding	Seed	$1-2M	Public validation, media catalyst
ARPA-E / DOE BETO	Seed	$1-3M	Waste-to-energy innovation
NOAA Marine Debris	Seed	$500K-2M	Ocean plastic removal R&D
NRC IRAP / Canada SIF	Seed/Series A	$500K-10M	PyroGenesis partnership leverage
Closed Loop Partners	Series A	$5-10M	Circular economy infrastructure
EU Innovation Fund	Series A	$5-15M	Waste-to-energy, medium-scale track
Minderoo Foundation	Series A	$2-5M	Sea the Future alignment
EIB Clean Oceans Initiative 2.0	Build	$10-50M	Concessional debt, $3B target for 2026-2030
IFC	Build	$10-30M	Blended finance, ocean plastic precedent
Corporate naming rights	Build	$5-15M/year	Multi-year deal, vessel naming
Mega-donor (Benioff/Gebbia/Forrest caliber)	Build	$10-25M	Single transformative gift
Pre-sold plastic credits	OPEX	$2-5M	Revenue advance against future operations

12. Risk-Adjusted Timeline Scenarios

Best Case: 42 Months (Q3 2029)

Assumptions:

Legal opinion positive within 3 months
PoC compressed to 14 months (fast procurement, no equipment issues, PyroGenesis immediately available)
Gate 2 results so strong that AiP submission begins at Month 10
Hull pre-identified during PoC, purchased immediately after Gate 2
PRRS marine engineering begins after Gate 2 (Month 10)
Chinese shipyard with aggressive schedule (18 months conversion)
No significant regulatory pushback
Funding rounds close within 3 months of starting

Month  0: Pre-seed closed. Legal opinion + PoC begin.
Month  3: Gate 1 passed. Stage 2 begins.
Month 10: Gate 2 passed. AiP submitted. Hull search begins. PRRS engineering begins.
Month 14: Gate 3 passed. Hull purchased. Series A closed.
Month 16: AiP issued. Hull arrives at shipyard. Strip-out begins.
Month 18: Basic design review submitted. Build funding securing.
Month 20: PRRS FAT begins at PyroGenesis.
Month 22: PRRS delivered to shipyard. Installation begins.
Month 34: Conversion complete. Sea trials begin.
Month 38: Transit to Honolulu.
Month 42: First operational campaign.

Probability: 10-15%. This requires everything to go right and aggressive parallel execution.

Expected Case: 54-60 Months (Q1-Q3 2031)

Assumptions:

Legal opinion takes 5 months (moderate complexity)
PoC runs 18 months (standard schedule, one re-test needed in Stage 2)
AiP submission at Month 15, issuance at Month 24
Hull search takes 6 months, purchase at Month 24
PRRS marine engineering begins at Month 15, FAT at Month 39
Singapore or Chinese shipyard, 20-month conversion
One round of regulatory iteration (flag state questions, class conditions)
Each funding round takes 4-6 months to close
3-month schedule slip from unforeseen issues (weather, supply chain, personnel)

Month  0: Pre-seed. Legal opinion + classification pre-engagement begin.
Month  5: Gate 1 passed.
Month 12: Gate 2 passed. AiP submission begins.
Month 15: PRRS marine engineering begins. Hull search begins. Series A fundraising begins.
Month 18: Stage 3 begins. Series A closing.
Month 21: Gate 3 passed. AiP under review.
Month 24: AiP issued (with conditions). Hull purchased. Series A closed.
Month 27: Hull arrives at shipyard. Strip-out begins. Build funding begins.
Month 30: Basic design review approved. Structural work begins. Build funding closing.
Month 39: PRRS FAT complete.
Month 42: PRRS installation at shipyard.
Month 48: Conversion substantially complete. Harbour trials.
Month 51: Sea trials complete. Transit to Honolulu.
Month 54: First operational campaign begins.

Probability: 40-50%. This is the planning target.

Worst Case: 72-78 Months (Q3 2032)

Assumptions:

Legal opinion inconclusive — requires second opinion or flag state consultation (+6 months)
PoC Stage 2 shows conditional results (net energy ratio 0.7-1.0) — requires extended testing (+6 months)
PyroGenesis enters creditor protection during Stage 3 — must secure data, find alternative fabricator (+6-12 months)
AiP issued with significant conditions requiring additional engineering (+6 months)
Hull market tight — acceptable vessel not available for 12 months
Classification society requires HAZOP iteration (+3 months)
Shipyard encounters structural surprises during conversion (+4 months)
PRRS installation requires modifications for sea conditions discovered during trials (+3 months)
Funding rounds take 9-12 months each due to market conditions

Month  0: Pre-seed.
Month  6: Legal opinion inconclusive. Commission second opinion.
Month  9: Gate 1 passed (delayed by feedstock sourcing).
Month 18: Gate 2 — conditional proceed (energy ratio 0.9). Extended testing planned.
Month 24: Extended Stage 2 testing confirms viability with pre-drying.
Month 30: Gate 3 passed (delayed). AiP submission with full data set.
Month 33: PyroGenesis enters creditor protection. IP escrow activated. Alternative fabricator sought.
Month 36: AiP issued with conditions. New PRRS fabrication partner identified.
Month 42: Hull purchased (delayed by market + funding timing).
Month 45: Hull at shipyard. Conversion begins. PRRS engineering restarted with new partner.
Month 57: PRRS FAT complete (new fabricator learning curve).
Month 60: PRRS installation.
Month 66: Conversion complete. Sea trials.
Month 72: Transit to Honolulu (after trial defect rectification).
Month 78: First operational campaign.

Probability: 20-25%. Multiple things must go wrong, but each individual risk is plausible.

Timeline Risk Register

Risk	Impact on Timeline	Probability	Mitigation
Legal opinion says plasma IS incineration	PROJECT KILL or +12-24 months for treaty interpretation	Low (15%)	Commission from top-tier maritime firm. Prepare fallback arguments. Engage flag state early.
PyroGenesis bankruptcy	+6-12 months	Medium (30%)	IP escrow clause. Maintain relationships with key engineers. Identify alternative fabricators (Plazarium, Advanced Plasma Power).
PoC shows marginal energy balance	+6 months extended testing	Medium (25%)	Pre-define "conditional proceed" criteria. Budget for extended Stage 2.
Classification society imposes conditions	+3-6 months	Medium-High (40%)	Pre-engagement in Phase 0. Submit comprehensive data package. Budget for iteration.
Hull market spike / no suitable vessels	+3-12 months	Low-Medium (20%)	Begin search early. Consider multiple vessel types (large OSV as alternative). Instruct multiple brokers.
Shipyard conversion overrun	+3-6 months	Medium (35%)	Use experienced FPSO conversion yard. Fixed-price contract with LD clauses. Owner's engineer on site.
PRRS integration issues at sea	+2-4 months	Medium (30%)	Extended harbour trials. Gradual ramp-up. Budget for post-trial modifications.
Funding delays	+3-12 months per round	Medium (30%)	Maintain parallel funding tracks. Government grants as bridge. Keep burn rate low during fundraising.

13. Sources

Comparable Project Timelines

The Ocean Cleanup — Wikipedia — Full history from 2013 concept to 2026 operations
The Ocean Cleanup Milestones — Official milestone timeline
System 03 Beginner's Guide — System 03 development details
Transition to System 03 Begins — 2022 transition announcement
Ocean Cleanup 2025 Year in Review — 2025 operational data
Gaia First Ocean Waste 2 Energy — Competing vessel concept
Fortune: Gaia First ocean plastic to green fuel — Gaia First funding and plans

Research compiled March 2026. Timelines are estimates grounded in comparable projects and industry benchmarks. Every phase should be replanned as actual data becomes available. The expected case (54-60 months) is the planning baseline; budget and schedule reserves should accommodate the worst case.

The Claw — Project Timeline & Critical Path Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

Three Scenarios

Why This Takes 4-6 Years

2. Comparable Project Timelines

The Ocean Cleanup — System 03

PyroGenesis PAWDS — Contract to Sea Deployment

FPSO Tanker Conversions — Industry Average

Gaia First — Ocean Waste 2 Energy Vessel

The Manta (SeaCleaners)

3. Phase 0: Foundation (Months 0-6)

Activities

Decision Gate 0: PROCEED TO POC?

4. Phase 1: Proof of Concept (Months 3-21)

Stage 1: Feedstock Characterization (Months 3-5)

Stage 2: Bench-Scale Plasma Testing (Months 5-12)

Stage 3: Extended Pilot Campaign (Months 12-21)

5. Phase 2: Design & Acquisition (Months 15-30)

Classification Society Pathway

Hull Acquisition

PRRS Plasma Unit Procurement

Parallel During Phase 2

6. Phase 3: Conversion & Build (Months 27-48)

Shipyard Selection

Conversion Timeline

Classification During Conversion

7. Phase 4: Commissioning & First Campaign (Months 45-54)

Sea Trials

Transit & Mobilization

First Operational Campaign

First Campaign Success Criteria

8. Critical Path Analysis

The Sequential Chain

What Blocks What

Compression Opportunities (Parallel Risk-Taking)

9. Decision Gates — GO/NO-GO Criteria

Gate 0: Commit to PoC (Month 6)

Gate 1: Feedstock Viable (Month 5)

Gate 2: Plasma Processing Viable (Month 12)

Gate 3: Operational Viability (Month 21)

Gate 4: Commit to Conversion (Month 27)

Gate 5: Proceed to Operations (Month 50)

10. Parallel Workstreams Map

Key Observations from the Workstream Map

11. Funding Milestones Aligned to Timeline

What Must Exist Before Each Round

Funding Source Alignment

12. Risk-Adjusted Timeline Scenarios

Best Case: 42 Months (Q3 2029)

Expected Case: 54-60 Months (Q1-Q3 2031)

Worst Case: 72-78 Months (Q3 2032)

Timeline Risk Register

13. Sources

Comparable Project Timelines

PyroGenesis PAWDS Timeline

FPSO Conversion Timelines

Vessel Market & Conversion

Classification Society & Regulatory

Funding & Market

Waste-to-Energy Vessels