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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 9, 2026
3 days ago · 93% complete · +3 refreshed

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.

FND NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement
Atlanta, GA 30339, United States IPO 2017 flooranddecor.com Updated Jun 9, 6:28pm
Price
$49.74
Market Cap
$5.4B
Employees
10,413
Beta
1.62
Avg Volume
2,987,257
CEO
Bradley S. Paulsen
Business Description

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. functions as a leading multi-channel business, acting as both a specialized retailer and a commercial distributor of hard surface flooring and its related accessories. The company provides a wide array of flooring options, such as tile, wood, laminate, vinyl, and natural stone, along with decorative and installation components. It serves a broad customer base, including professional installers, commercial clients, and do-it-yourself customers. As of May 5, 2022, the company boasted a significant physical presence with 166 large-format retail warehouses and five design studios spread across 34 states. Its products are also available online via its website, FloorandDecor.com. Founded in 2000, the company was initially known as FDO Holdings, Inc. before rebranding as Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. in April 2017. Its headquarters are located in Atlanta, Georgia.

Business History
Generated: Jun 3, 2026 8:32pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 6:28pm (3d ago)
$49.74
+3.81 (+8.30%)
Day Range
$45.95 – $50.12
52-Week Range
$42.64 – $92.41
50-Day MA
$49.57
200-Day MA
$63.89
Volume
4,010,335.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $51.00
Consensus $63.18
High $75.00
(52 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 108,094,000.00
Float 106,427,338.00
Free Float 98.5%
High free float — 98.5% of shares trade freely, ~1.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 6:34pm (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 9, 2026 6:30pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
26.87
Stock Price: $49.74
EPS (Diluted): 1.93
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.83
Stock Price: $49.74
Total Equity: $2.41B
Shares: 108,427,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.11
Market Cap: $5.38B
Total Debt: $1.99B
Cash: $249.30M
EBITDA: $510.97M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$10.2B
Market Cap: $5.38B
Total Debt: $1.99B
Cash: $249.30M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
41.1%
Gross Profit: $1.93B
Revenue: $4.68B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
5.9%
Operating Income: $278.70M
Revenue: $4.68B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
4.5%
Net Income: $208.65M
Revenue: $4.68B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
8.4%
Net Income: $208.65M
Total Equity: $2.41B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
4.6%
Operating Income: $278.70M
Tax Rate: 21.8%
Equity: $2.41B
Total Debt: $1.99B
Cash: $249.30M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.33
Current Assets: $1.53B
Current Liabilities: $1.15B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.83
Short-Term Debt: $158.29M
Long-Term Debt: $1.83B
Total Debt: $1.99B
Total Equity: $2.41B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$43.20
Revenue: $4.68B
Shares: 108,427,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$22.22
Total Equity: $2.41B
Shares: 108,427,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.59
Operating CF: $381.84M
CapEx: -$317.76M
Shares: 108,427,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $49.74
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $208.65M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 9, 2026 6:30pm
Compares FND against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 9, 2026 6:33:18 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.4B $4.3B $4.4B $4.5B $4.7B
Cost of Revenue $2.0B $2.5B $2.6B $2.5B $2.8B
Gross Profit $1.4B $1.7B $1.9B $1.9B $1.9B
Operating Expenses $1.1B $1.3B $1.5B $1.7B $1.6B
Operating Income $339.0M $396.8M $321.4M $256.2M $278.7M
Net Income $283.2M $298.2M $246.0M $205.9M $208.6M
EBITDA $457.2M $551.8M $523.3M $488.6M $511.0M
EPS $2.71 $2.82 $2.31 $1.92 $1.93
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:29pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $139.4M $9.8M $34.4M $187.7M $249.3M
Total Current Assets $1.3B $1.5B $1.3B $1.5B $1.5B
Total Assets $3.7B $4.4B $4.7B $5.1B $5.5B
Current Liabilities $1.0B $1.0B $1.2B $1.2B $1.2B
Long-Term Debt $195.8M $405.6M $194.9M $194.5M $1.8B
Total Liabilities $2.4B $2.7B $2.7B $2.9B $3.1B
Total Equity $1.3B $1.7B $1.9B $2.2B $2.4B
Retained Earnings $872.2M $1.2B $1.4B $1.6B $1.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $301.3M $112.5M $803.6M $603.2M $381.8M
Capital Expenditure -$407.7M -$456.6M -$547.6M -$446.8M -$317.8M
Free Cash Flow -$106.3M -$344.2M $256.0M $156.3M $64.1M
Acquisitions (net) -$63.6M -$3.8M -$17.4M $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$168.3M -$129.7M $24.6M $153.3M $61.6M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 6:28pm (3d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $4.7B
$4.7B – $4.7B
$4.8B
$4.8B – $4.9B
$5.1B
$4.9B – $5.3B
$5.6B
$5.6B – $5.6B
EBITDA $562.2M
$561.0M – $563.4M
$579.3M
$574.5M – $584.1M
$614.4M
$591.7M – $634.6M
$670.4M
$668.6M – $672.2M
Net Income $205.7M
$200.3M – $211.1M
$205.8M
$202.2M – $216.2M
$234.6M
$220.5M – $254.0M
$272.1M
$209.0M – $373.9M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +24.2% +3.5% +0.9% +5.1%
Gross Profit Growth +21.5% +7.6% +3.8% 0.0%
Operating Income Growth +17.0% -19.0% -20.3% +8.8%
Net Income Growth +5.3% -17.5% -16.3% +1.3%
EBITDA Growth +20.7% -5.2% -6.6% +4.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 6:33pm (3d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-18 LANGLEY BRYAN M-Exempt 1,159.00 $9.99 $11,578
2026-05-18 LANGLEY BRYAN M-Exempt 1,159.00 $9.99 $11,578
2026-05-05 PAULSEN BRADLEY F-InKind 2,461.00 $48.30 $118,866
2026-05-04 LANGLEY BRYAN P-Purchase 2,500.00 $48.69 $121,725
2026-05-04 SAYMAN ERSAN M-Exempt 28,320.00 $9.99 $282,917
2026-05-04 SAYMAN ERSAN S-Sale 15,200.00 $48.28 $733,856
2026-05-04 SAYMAN ERSAN M-Exempt 28,320.00 $9.99 $282,917
2026-05-04 PAULSEN BRADLEY P-Purchase 5,000.00 $50.25 $251,250
2026-02-26 Adamson John J F-InKind 154.00 $70.14 $10,802
2026-02-27 Adamson John J F-InKind 254.00 $69.09 $17,549
2026-02-26 DENNY STEVEN ALAN F-InKind 276.00 $70.14 $19,359
2026-02-27 DENNY STEVEN ALAN F-InKind 218.00 $69.09 $15,062
2026-02-27 DENNY STEVEN ALAN F-InKind 539.00 $69.09 $37,240
2026-02-26 TAYLOR THOMAS V F-InKind 3,016.00 $70.14 $211,542
2026-02-27 TAYLOR THOMAS V F-InKind 2,870.00 $69.09 $198,288
2026-02-27 TAYLOR THOMAS V F-InKind 10,262.00 $69.09 $709,002
2026-02-26 Christopherson David Victor F-InKind 704.00 $70.14 $49,379
2026-02-27 Christopherson David Victor F-InKind 575.00 $69.09 $39,727
2026-02-27 Christopherson David Victor F-InKind 1,219.00 $69.09 $84,221
2026-02-26 LANGLEY BRYAN F-InKind 319.00 $70.14 $22,375
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for FND.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-09 18:33:55
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Quality franchise at the wrong price in the wrong cycle phase — fair value $42-46 on normalized earnings; wait for either a sub-$42 entry or a definitive housing-turnover inflection before committing capital.

Starting from the raw tape: revenue went from $4.26B (2022) to $4.68B (2025) — that's 3% CAGR over three years, and net income collapsed from $298M to $209M over the same window. Operating margin compressed from 9.3% in 2022 to 6.0% in 2025. The quarterly trajectory is worse than the annual smooths: Q1'26 revenue $1.15B was down from Q3'25's $1.18B and Q2'25's $1.21B, and Q1'26 net margin of 3.4% is roughly half of mid-2024's ~5%. So the trend isn't "decelerating mature compounder" — it's actively eroding into 2026 with no inflection visible. FCF of $64M on $382M operating cash flow tells you capex ($318M) is still consuming nearly all internal cash to build stores whose unit economics are demonstrably worse than the 2021-2022 vintage.

On valuation: 26.9x TTM P/E and 14.1x EV/EBITDA for a business with -7.9% earnings CAGR, decelerating revenue, and a sub-5% ROIC is rich, full stop. EV/sales of 2.18x is what you pay for a compounder, not a cyclical specialty retailer mid-cycle-bottom whose ROIC (4.6%) sits below any reasonable WACC. If I normalize earnings to a recovered-cycle ~$260M NI (between 2023 and 2024 actuals) and put a 18-20x multiple on it (generous for a 5% grower), I get $4.7-5.2B market cap, i.e. $43-48/share. Current $49.74 is at the top of that band. The synthesis verdict of "disconnected from fundamentals" is directionally right but the framing is sloppy — it's not that the market demands 48.9% FCF growth; it's that the market is paying a normalized-earnings multiple for a business not yet earning normalized earnings, while ignoring that the next-100-stores cohort may permanently dilute ROIC.

Where I'd push back on the prior models: the "Market Headwinds / value-destructive expansion" framing from Market Forces is too harsh. Operating cash flow of $382M is healthy, gross margin actually expanded to 41.2% (vs. 40.6% in 2022), and the cash balance ($249M) plus the absence of disclosed debt stress means this isn't a balance-sheet story — it's a returns-on-incremental-capital story. The Narrative layer's "durable category killer" thesis isn't wrong either; FND genuinely has a structural edge in hard-surface assortment depth that Home Depot and Lowe's can't replicate per-SKU. The honest read is somewhere between: a quality franchise over-earning on multiple, under-earning on margin, with management still pressing the accelerator on store growth into a housing trough. The insider activity (two small P-Purchases on May 4, ~7,500 shares combined, against an M-Exempt/S-Sale of similar size) is essentially noise — calling it "net insider buying" is generous.

Contrarian case I'd take seriously: existing-home sales are at multi-decade lows (~4M annualized). When/if mortgage rates break below 6% and turnover normalizes to 5M+, FND's comps could swing from -LSD to +MSD almost overnight, and the operating leverage on 250+ stores with depressed throughput is real — a return to 2022's 9.3% op margin on $5.5B revenue is $510M op income, or roughly $380M NI, putting current price at 14x recovered earnings. That's the bull case the steady-compounder narrative is implicitly underwriting. The problem: you're paying 26x today for the option, and the timing is unknowable — every quarter of waiting compounds the dilution from sub-cost-of-capital store openings. I'd want to buy that option closer to $38-42, not $50. The synthesis is right that fundamentals don't support the price; it's wrong to imply there's no there-there. This is a "right company, wrong price, wrong moment in the cycle" setup. I dissent mildly from "Disconnected from Fundamentals" only in tone — agree with substance, disagree with implied severity.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-09 18:34:01
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — overvalued at $49.74, fair value likely in the $42-46 range, as the market underestimates risk of continued margin compression and overextension in a soft housing market.

In examining Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc., I notice a company that has experienced revenue growth from $4.26 billion in 2022 to $4.68 billion in 2025, a subdued 3% CAGR. However, net income has seen a sharp decline from $298 million to $209 million over the same period, indicating significant margin pressure. The quarterly data reveals further concerns, with the latest 2026 Q1 revenue of $1.15 billion showing a decrease from 2025 Q2's $1.21 billion, and net margins dropping to 3.4% from mid-2024's ~5%. This pattern suggests that Floor & Decor is currently struggling to maintain profitability amid pressures from its aggressive expansion strategy and macroeconomic headwinds.

Opus makes a compelling case that the current valuation metrics, such as a P/E of 26.9x and EV/EBITDA of 14.1x, are overly optimistic for a company facing a -7.9% earnings CAGR and a ROIC of just 4.6%. I concur with his assessment that these valuations are more suitable for a growing compounder rather than a business stuck in a cyclical downturn with underwhelming returns. Where I diverge slightly is in Opus's assertion that the market's expectations of a "48.9% FCF growth" are exaggerated. While the market may indeed overestimate immediate growth potential, the notion that expansion into new markets can dilute ROIC further is critical, as these new stores may not mirror the success of prior expansions.

I align with Opus on the critique of the "Market Headwinds / value-destructive expansion" narrative. While the operating cash flow of $382 million and a solid cash position of $249 million depict a stable financial footing, the significant capex of $318 million indicates a continuous reliance on cash to fuel expansion. This doesn't directly equate to value destruction, but it does signal a strategic risk if these investments fail to yield expected returns. Additionally, while the narrative of Floor & Decor as a "durable category killer" holds some weight due to its specialization and assortment depth, the competitive landscape with big-box retailers remains a formidable challenge.

A skeptic might argue that the current downturn in the housing market, paired with rising interest rates, has unduly punished Floor & Decor's valuation. They might propose that a recovery in housing demand could rapidly improve sales and margins, thus validating the company's aggressive expansion strategy. However, this remains speculative, as the timing of any market recovery is uncertain, and the ongoing capital expenditures could become burdensome if market conditions don't improve promptly.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-09 18:35:23
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Genuinely well-run specialty retailer (-10 quality) but priced for a margin and housing recovery that hasn't shown up (-67 value) — patience, not action, at $49.74.
The cruxWhether operating margins mean-revert toward prior peak before the balance sheet and FCF compression force a multiple reset — and you're being asked to pay for that recovery before any evidence of it.
Company Quality
-10
Solid
edge √Σ 106 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-67
Rich
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses are telling a coherent story and I'm going to respect both. The -10 quality score says this is a real business: clean accruals, 1.89x OCF/NI, no dilution, insiders buying small lots in the open market — I don't need to question whether the earnings are honest or the model works. But the -67 value score is right that at $49.74 I'm underwriting three things at once — a housing turn, a 400bp margin recovery, and continued warehouse unit growth — with $1.74B of net debt and FCF down 75% in two years as my starting point. That's not margin of safety, that's a stack of hopes priced in.

My play: this goes on the watchlist with a hard discipline. No starter here at $49.74 — I'm not paying up for a recovery I can't yet see in the print. I begin nibbling around $40 (roughly 0.5% position), scale to a real starter (1.5-2%) in the high $30s where the value lens says it actually gets interesting, and would build toward a full 3-4% position only if I get a panic flush into the low $30s OR I see two consecutive quarters of comp inflection and gross margin stabilization. What flips me aggressive earlier: gross margin clawing back above 42% with op margin showing sequential expansion, or a meaningful insider buy cluster (not the $373K token buys — real size). What keeps me on the sidelines: another leg down in comps, GM staying sub-41%, or any incremental leverage. Good business, wrong price — and I have the luxury of waiting for the price to come to me.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
-10 Solid edge √Σ 106 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 7/10

Floor & Decor is a mature specialty retailer that has grown revenue from $3.43B (2021) to $4.68B (2025), a ~8% CAGR, while expanding store count. Earnings quality is genuinely good: OCF/NI of 1.89x, negative accruals (-3.8% of assets), Beneish M of -2.75, and a clean dilution profile (diluted share CAGR 0.2%, SBC just 0.6% of revenue). There is no evidence of accounting manipulation or per-share value erosion through issuance — that is rare and a real positive.

The concern is the operating trajectory. Operating margin has fallen every year from 9.9% (2021) → 9.3% → 7.3% → 5.7% → 5.9%, and net income peaked in 2022 at $298M against $208M in 2025 despite ~10% more revenue. FCF is positive but decelerating ($256M → $156M → $64M), consistent with heavy store-build capex outrunning incremental earnings. Net debt of $1.74B against only $249M liquid cash and $64M of trailing FCF means the balance sheet is a constraint — Altman Z of 2.63 sits in the grey zone, not the safe zone.

Insider behavior is mildly encouraging: Langley and Paulsen made open-market P-purchases in May 2026 (~$373K combined), while Sayman's sale was an option-exercise-and-sell, not a conviction exit. Overall this looks like a well-run, honestly-reported business going through a cyclical and margin-compression phase, not a quality breakdown — but not a fortress either.

Strengths 4
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.89x, accruals -3.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.75. Cash conversion exceeds reported earnings and mechanical fraud screens are clean.
m65
Negligible dilution
Diluted shares went 107.4M → 108.4M over 5 years (0.2% CAGR), SBC only 0.6% of revenue. Per-share value is not being quietly siphoned.
m35
Insider open-market buying
Langley and Paulsen executed P-Purchases totaling ~$373K in May 2026 at ~$48-50 levels — small dollar amounts but directionally positive conviction signals.
m30
Revenue still growing through soft cycle
Revenue grew from $4.41B (2023) to $4.68B (2025) despite a brutal housing/remodel cycle, suggesting share gains and unit-growth model still functions.
Concerns 4
m75
Operating margin collapse
Op margin fell from 9.9% (2021) to 5.9% (2025) — a ~400bp erosion. Net income is down ~30% from the 2022 peak despite higher revenue, indicating significant deleverage on new stores or pricing/mix pressure.
m65
Net debt vs thin FCF cushion
$1.74B net debt against only $64M trailing FCF and $249M cash. Altman Z of 2.63 is grey-zone. Balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion — much of this is likely operating lease liability but still real.
m55
FCF decelerating fast
FCF went $256M (2023) → $156M (2024) → $64M (2025), a 75% decline in two years. Capex intensity (new stores) is consuming most of operating cash flow.
m25
Gross margin reversal in 2025
GM expanded 41.4% → 43.3% through 2024, then dropped to 41.1% in 2025 — worth watching as a potential pricing/promotional shift.
This is a fundamentally honest, well-run specialty retailer in a tough patch — not a quality problem, a cycle and capex problem. Earnings are real (1.89x OCF/NI, clean accruals, clean Beneish), shares aren't being printed (0.2% CAGR), and insiders are buying small lots in the open market. But I can't ignore that operating margin has been cut nearly in half over four years and FCF has collapsed 75% in two years while $1.74B of net debt sits on the books. The business model — large-format specialty floor coverings with unit growth — still works, but the operating leverage that made it special has gone the wrong way. I grade it Solid: a real company with clean books and disciplined capital structure, but the margin trajectory needs to inflect before I'd call it Strong, and the net debt prevents Fortress regardless.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Split of $1.74B net debt between operating lease liabilities vs true funded debt — changes balance sheet read materially
  • Same-store / comp sales trend vs new-store contribution to disentangle cyclical pressure from unit-economic decay
  • New-store productivity (sales per square foot in vintages opened 2022-2024) — is the unit model still working?
  • Capex breakdown: maintenance vs growth — to estimate steady-state FCF if expansion paused
  • Whether the 2025 gross margin decline reflects tariff/import cost pressure or competitive promotion
  • Customer mix Pro vs DIY — Pro is the stickier, higher-quality revenue stream
-67 Rich edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 6/10
Price $49.74 vs deserved ~$40-45 on quality-adjusted, cycle-normalized math — roughly 10-20% overpaying for a recovery not yet visible in the numbers. attractive below $38.00

The e2e synthesis flags FND as 'Disconnected from Fundamentals,' which on a $5.4B market cap with collapsed FCF is code for: the multiple is being supported by narrative, not current cash flows. A 75% FCF drawdown and operating margins cut roughly in half over four years means trailing-based deserved value is materially below the price. Even being generous and capitalizing a normalized mid-cycle margin recovery, the stock at $49.74 looks closer to fair-to-rich than cheap.

The Solid quality grade (clean accruals, stable share count, real earnings) does raise deserved value versus a typical cyclical retailer — but it doesn't close the gap on its own. You're paying for (a) a housing/remodel cycle turn, (b) margin recovery back toward prior peak, and (c) continued warehouse unit growth compounding. That's a stack of three things that need to go right. With net debt on the balance sheet and capex still heavy, the margin of safety at today's price is thin. I'd call this Rich, not Overvalued — the business is good enough that it's not a short, but I'm not paying $49.74 for it.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Quality earns a premium
1.89x OCF/NI, clean Beneish, 0.2% share-count CAGR, insider open-market buys — this is a legitimately well-run operator, which lifts deserved value above a typical specialty retailer.
m25
Unit growth optionality still real
Category-killer position in hard surfaces with a long warehouse runway provides a genuine call option on the next cycle — worth something, but already partially in the price.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Multiple disconnected from current cash flows
e2e synthesis explicitly flags 'Disconnected from Fundamentals.' With FCF down ~75% from peak, the $5.4B market cap implies a very large normalization that the market is already paying for.
m65
Priced for margin recovery that hasn't started
Operating margin has been roughly halved over four years. At $49.74 the stock requires margins to mean-revert toward prior levels — that's the bull case as the base case, with no discount for the wait.
m45
Cycle risk not in the price
Bear case correctly notes housing/remodel sensitivity; if comps stay negative another year, earnings power keeps slipping and the implied forward multiple expands further.
Good business, wrong price. I don't fight the quality lens — this is a clean operator — but at $49.74 I'm being asked to underwrite a margin recovery and a housing turn simultaneously, with FCF currently collapsed and net debt on the books. That's not a margin of safety, that's a faith trade. I'd want it in the high $30s before the risk/reward gets interesting; closer to $40 you're at least paying a reasonable price for cycle-normalized earnings power. Today it's a watch, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward comp guidance and any inflection in same-store sales trajectory
  • Operating margin trajectory and SG&A leverage as new stores mature
  • Capex guidance and resulting FCF run-rate — is the 75% FCF drop bottoming?
  • Net debt level and interest coverage given balance sheet leverage
  • New unit productivity vs. legacy stores — is the box still earning its keep?
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16