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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

Intuit Inc.

INTU NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
Mountain View, CA 94043, United States IPO 1993 intuit.com Updated Jun 7, 2:18pm
Price
$296.76
Market Cap
$81.2B
Employees
18,800
Beta
0.96
Avg Volume
4,163,946
CEO
Sasan K. Goodarzi
Business Description

Intuit Inc. provides financial management and compliance products and services for consumers, small businesses, self-employed, and accounting professionals in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Small Business & Self-Employed, Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProConnect. The Small Business & Self-Employed segment provides QuickBooks online services and desktop software solutions comprising QuickBooks Online Advanced, a cloud-based solution; QuickBooks Enterprise, a hosted solution; QuickBooks Self-Employed solution; QuickBooks Commerce, a solution for product-based businesses; QuickBooks Online Accountant and QuickBooks Accountant Desktop Plus solutions; and payroll solutions, such as online payroll processing, direct deposit of employee paychecks, payroll reports, electronic payment of federal and state payroll taxes, and electronic filing of federal and state payroll tax forms. This segment also offers payment-processing solutions, including credit and debit cards, Apple Pay, and ACH payment services; QuickBooks Cash business bank account; and financial supplies and financing for small businesses. The Consumer segment provides TurboTax income tax preparation products and services; and personal finance. The Credit Karma segment offers consumers with a personal finance platform that provides personalized recommendations of home, auto, and personal loans, as well as credit cards and insurance products. The ProConnect segment provides Lacerte, ProSeries, and ProFile desktop tax-preparation software products; and ProConnect Tax Online tax products, electronic tax filing service, and bank products and related services. It sells products and services through various sales and distribution channels, including multi-channel shop-and-buy experiences, websites and call centers, mobile application stores, and retail and other channels. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 2:21pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:18pm (5d ago)
$296.76
-5.22 (-1.73%)
Day Range
$293.67 – $307.00
52-Week Range
$293.67 – $813.70
50-Day MA
$384.07
200-Day MA
$544.92
Volume
6,404,692.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $276.00
Consensus $458.82
High $720.00
(115 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 273,537,000.00
Float 267,286,680.00
Free Float 97.7%
High free float — 97.7% of shares trade freely, ~2.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:25pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:13pm (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:20pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
17.87
Stock Price: $296.76
EPS (Diluted): 13.82
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
11.15
Stock Price: $296.76
Total Equity: $19.71B
Shares: 283,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.36
Market Cap: $81.17B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Cash: $2.88B
EBITDA: $5.89B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$223.6B
Market Cap: $81.17B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Cash: $2.88B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
80.8%
Gross Profit: $15.21B
Revenue: $18.83B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
26.1%
Operating Income: $4.92B
Revenue: $18.83B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
20.5%
Net Income: $3.87B
Revenue: $18.83B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
23.3%
Net Income: $3.87B
Total Equity: $19.71B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
16.2%
Operating Income: $4.92B
Tax Rate: 20.0%
Equity: $19.71B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Cash: $2.88B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.36
Current Assets: $14.11B
Current Liabilities: $10.37B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.30
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $5.97B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Total Equity: $19.71B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$66.54
Revenue: $18.83B
Shares: 283,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$69.65
Total Equity: $19.71B
Shares: 283,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$21.49
Operating CF: $6.21B
CapEx: -$124.00M
Shares: 283,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.5%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $296.76
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $3.87B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:20pm
Compares INTU against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:24:57 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:13pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $9.6B $12.7B $14.4B $16.3B $18.8B
Cost of Revenue $1.7B $2.4B $3.1B $3.5B $3.6B
Gross Profit $8.0B $10.3B $11.2B $12.8B $15.2B
Operating Expenses $5.5B $7.7B $8.1B $9.2B $10.3B
Operating Income $2.5B $2.6B $3.1B $3.6B $4.9B
Net Income $2.1B $2.1B $2.4B $3.0B $3.9B
EBITDA $2.9B $3.4B $4.0B $4.6B $5.9B
EPS $7.64 $7.38 $8.48 $10.58 $13.82
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:05pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $2.6B $2.8B $2.8B $3.6B $2.9B
Total Current Assets $5.2B $5.0B $5.6B $9.7B $14.1B
Total Assets $15.5B $27.7B $27.8B $32.1B $37.0B
Current Liabilities $2.7B $3.6B $3.8B $7.5B $10.4B
Long-Term Debt $2.0B $6.4B $6.1B $5.5B $6.0B
Total Liabilities $5.6B $11.3B $10.5B $13.7B $17.2B
Total Equity $9.9B $16.4B $17.3B $18.4B $19.7B
Retained Earnings $12.3B $13.6B $15.1B $17.0B $19.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:13pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $3.3B $3.9B $5.0B $4.9B $6.2B
Capital Expenditure -$125.0M -$229.0M -$260.0M -$250.0M -$124.0M
Free Cash Flow $3.1B $3.7B $4.8B $4.6B $6.1B
Acquisitions (net) -$3.1B -$5.7B -$33.0M -$83.0M -$184.0M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$1.0B -$1.9B -$2.0B -$2.0B -$2.8B
Net Change in Cash -$3.9B $178.0M -$145.0M $4.2B $2.4B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:18pm (5d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $23.9B
$23.4B – $24.3B
$26.6B
$26.6B – $26.6B
$30.7B
$30.2B – $31.3B
$35.0B
$34.5B – $35.7B
EBITDA $7.8B
$7.7B – $7.9B
$8.7B
$8.7B – $8.7B
$10.0B
$9.9B – $10.2B
$11.5B
$11.3B – $11.7B
Net Income $7.9B
$7.5B – $8.2B
$8.9B
$8.1B – $9.7B
$10.1B
$9.9B – $10.3B
$11.4B
$11.2B – $11.7B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:13pm (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +32.1% +12.9% +13.3% +15.6%
Gross Profit Growth +29.8% +8.8% +14.2% +18.6%
Operating Income Growth +2.8% +22.2% +15.6% +35.6%
Net Income Growth +0.2% +15.4% +24.3% +30.6%
EBITDA Growth +14.3% +20.0% +13.3% +28.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:25pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-09 DALZELL RICHARD L S-Sale 333.00 $297.65 $99,117
2026-06-10 DALZELL RICHARD L S-Sale 333.00 $287.50 $95,738
2026-06-11 DALZELL RICHARD L S-Sale 338.00 $279.86 $94,593
2026-05-26 PRABHU VASANT M P-Purchase 500.00 $309.72 $154,858
2026-05-22 PRABHU VASANT M P-Purchase 1,250.00 $309.45 $386,808
2026-05-08 Norrod Forrest Eugene A-Award 64.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Mawakana Tekedra A-Award 64.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Liu Deborah A-Award 75.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Burton Eve B A-Award 70.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 SZKUTAK THOMAS J M-Exempt 63.00 $401.04 $25,266
2026-05-08 SZKUTAK THOMAS J A-Award 87.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 SZKUTAK THOMAS J M-Exempt 63.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 DALZELL RICHARD L M-Exempt 77.00 $401.04 $30,880
2026-05-08 DALZELL RICHARD L A-Award 81.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 DALZELL RICHARD L M-Exempt 77.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-03 Burton Eve B M-Exempt 118.00 $248.86 $29,365
2026-05-03 Burton Eve B M-Exempt 118.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Goodarzi Sasan K M-Exempt 30.83 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Goodarzi Sasan K M-Exempt 863.01 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Goodarzi Sasan K M-Exempt 802.01 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:05pm (9d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-09 $1.20 2026-05-19 2026-07-09 2026-07-17
2026-04-09 $1.20 2026-02-24 2026-04-09 2026-04-17
2026-01-09 $1.20 2025-11-18 2026-01-09 2026-01-16
2025-10-09 $1.20 2025-08-19 2025-10-09 2025-10-17
2025-07-10 $1.04 2025-05-20 2025-07-10 2025-07-18
2025-04-10 $1.04 2025-02-25 2025-04-10 2025-04-18
2025-01-10 $1.04 2024-11-21 2025-01-09 2025-01-17
2024-10-10 $1.04 2024-08-20 2024-10-10 2024-10-18
2024-07-10 $0.90 2024-05-23 2024-07-10 2024-07-18
2024-04-09 $0.90 2024-02-20 2024-04-10 2024-04-18
2024-01-09 $0.90 2023-11-28 2024-01-10 2024-01-18
2023-10-05 $0.90 2023-08-24 2023-10-09 2023-10-17
2023-07-07 $0.78 2023-05-23 2023-07-10 2023-07-18
2023-04-06 $0.78 2023-02-23 2023-04-10 2023-04-18
2023-01-09 $0.78 2022-11-29 2023-01-10 2023-01-18
2022-10-06 $0.78 2022-08-23 2022-10-10 2022-10-18
2022-07-08 $0.68 2022-05-20 2022-07-11 2022-07-18
2022-04-08 $0.68 2022-02-22 2022-04-11 2022-04-18
2022-01-07 $0.68 2021-11-16 2022-01-10 2022-01-18
2021-10-07 $0.68 2021-08-24 2021-10-11 2021-10-18
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for INTU.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 14:25:34
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Undervalued but synthesis overshoots — fair value $370-400 (25x TTM EPS), not $518; starter position justified at $297 but full sizing requires confir

The raw numbers tell a clean story before I touch any model output. FY2025 (July year-end) revenue of $18.83B vs FY2021's $9.63B is a 96% four-year gain, ~18% CAGR, with operating income nearly doubling from $2.50B to $4.92B and FCF at $6.08B on $124M capex — this is an almost asset-light compounder. The quarterly cadence is fiscal-year-distorted but real: Q3 FY26 (Apr-2026) revenue $8.56B vs Q3 FY25 $7.75B = +10.5% YoY in the tax-season quarter, with net margin of 35.8% vs 36.4% prior year — slight margin compression in the highest-mix quarter, worth noting. Q2 FY26 $4.65B vs $3.96B = +17.4%; Q1 FY26 $3.89B vs $3.28B = +18.6%. So growth is decelerating into the seasonally-biggest quarter, which is exactly where the IRS Direct File / AI-tax-prep bear case would first show up. That's not a tell I'd ignore.

On valuation, the synthesis verdict of $385 composite / $518 signal-adjusted vs $297 spot is aggressive. TTM P/E of 17.9x for a business compounding earnings at 27% with 80.8% gross margins and 26% operating margins is genuinely cheap on its face — Intuit historically traded 35-45x. EV/EBITDA at 12.4x is roughly half its five-year average. But "$518 fair value" implies the market is wrong by 75%, and I don't buy that magnitude. The more honest read: a re-rating to 25x earnings ($4.30B TTM NI / 285M shares ≈ $15 EPS → $375) is plausible if the FY26 Q3 deceleration doesn't worsen. $518 requires the multiple to return to peak-2021 ZIRP-era levels, which assumes the AI/Direct-File narrative fully reverses. I'd anchor fair value at $370-400, not $518.

The contrarian case the models underweight: TurboTax is ~30% of revenue and the highest-margin segment, and Q3 (tax season) is where Direct File expansion to all 50 states (announced for TY2025 filing) will first bite. The 10.5% Q3 growth vs 17%+ in non-tax quarters is consistent with early share loss, not noise. Credit Karma's contribution and Mailchimp integration mask the mix shift. The "Market Forces" model flagging share loss in a growing industry is the most underrated signal in this stack — everyone else is anchored on TTM cash generation. Also: insider activity shows two small open-market purchases (500 + 1,250 shares) against a sea of awards and option exercises — calling this "Net Insider Buying" is generous; 1,750 purchased shares at ~$300 = $525K, which is signal-free for a company this size. The "fallen-angel" narrative framing is right but the engine overstates how fixable the narrative is — Intuit has no founder-CEO story to rally a re-rating.

Where the data is thin: balance sheet is missing total debt and equity entirely, which matters because Intuit carried ~$6B in debt post-Credit Karma/Mailchimp and the EV-based multiples depend on it. The pe_ratio anomaly flags are immaterial here — TTM vs annual gaps don't change the conclusion at this multiple. Macro headwinds flag is plausible (SMB formation slowing, Credit Karma sensitive to credit cycle) but secondary to the structural Direct File question. Net: I partially dissent from the synthesis. Undervalued, yes, but not by 75%. The thesis-evaluation "High Conviction Required" framing is closer to right — this needs you to believe Direct File is overhyped AND Intuit's AI-Assist (TurboTax Live, Intuit Assist) defends ARPU. The Q3 FY26 deceleration to 10.5% is a yellow flag that the bear case has teeth. Starter position at $297 with conviction add below $270 makes sense; full position requires seeing FY27 Q1 (Oct-2026) and FY27 Q3 (Apr-2027) tax-season prints to confirm Direct File didn't structurally impair the consumer segment.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 14:25:40
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — undervalued at $296.76, but I'd align fair value closer to $370-400, acknowledging growth risks and AI challenges.

Intuit's financial trajectory over the last few years tells a compelling story of substantial growth. With revenue escalating from $9.63B in 2021 to $18.83B in 2025, showcasing an impressive CAGR of approximately 18%, the company is clearly expanding robustly. Operating income has nearly doubled during this period, and free cash flow has consistently remained strong, demonstrating the firm's capacity to generate cash efficiently. The quarterly results further illustrate a business capitalizing on its strengths; however, the noticeable slowdown in growth during the tax season quarter (Q3 FY26) to 10.5% YoY from 17%+ in prior quarters signals potential headwinds, particularly concerning IRS Direct File and AI competition.

Opus contends that Intuit is undervalued, positing a fair value range of $370-400, significantly below the synthesis output of $518. I concur with Opus's skepticism about the $518 valuation, as such a level suggests a dismissal of the real and perceived risks that the company faces. A re-rating to a P/E of 25x, translating to a fair value of around $375, is more aligned with current market realities and the potential challenges from AI and regulatory pressures. However, I am less inclined to anchor my valuation strictly on historical multiples, given the shifting landscape and Intuit's response to these external pressures.

I diverge from Opus regarding the impact of the "Market Forces" model. While Opus highlights the significance of the share loss flag, I believe this is somewhat overemphasized. The consistent high margins and robust free cash flow generation suggest that Intuit's core business remains resilient, even if it faces competitive pressures. Although the narrative of Intuit as a "fallen-angel" has some merit, the company's consistent financial performance suggests a degree of narrative overreaction. Furthermore, the insider transactions, while not overwhelmingly bullish, do not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company's future.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I underappreciate the potential long-term impact of AI and IRS initiatives. They would contend that these factors could fundamentally alter the competitive dynamics of Intuit's core markets, leading to sustained margin compression and growth deceleration. Moreover, they might point out that the current valuation already reflects a mature, low-growth outlook, and any future re-rating is contingent upon Intuit effectively countering these threats.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 14:40:40
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality compounder — starter now, scale on weakness 7/10
Elite business (quality 98) at a merely okay price (value 7) — this is a 'own it, but earn your full size' setup, not a table-pound.
The cruxWhether you get a second chance below $260 to build a real position, or whether the AI/IRS Direct File overhang lifts and you have to chase a quality-98 compounder higher.
Company Quality
+98
Strong
edge √Σ 163 · risk √Σ 65 · conf 8/10
Valuation / Mispricing
+7
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 75 · risk √Σ 68 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a clean story: quality is a 98 — genuinely elite cash generation, clean accounting, disciplined share count, durable moats — but valuation is only a 7, modestly cheap with ~15-20% to a defensible $340-380 deserved value. I'm not going to fight the quality score; this is exactly the kind of franchise I want to own for years. But I also respect the value lens — at 28-30x FCF (richer SBC-adjusted), with ~60% of market cap pricing in future growth above the EPV floor, this isn't the asymmetric setup where I back up the truck. So I do both: open a starter position around 1/3 of target size here at $297 to plant the flag, because if the IRS Direct File and AI-disruption narratives quietly fade, I will not get a clean shot at a quality-98 name again.

The real work is the scale-in plan. I add another third at $260 — that's the value lens's stated attractive level, ~30% off deserved value, and where margin of safety actually starts mattering. Final third reserved for $220-230 or a genuine fundamental wobble (organic growth miss, real Direct File traction in numbers, not headlines) — that's where EPV stops being a theoretical floor. On the upside, if it rips through $340 on a clean print without me filling the position, I stop adding and live with what I have — I don't chase a 7-score valuation. Catalysts that flip me aggressive: any quarter showing QuickBooks/Mailchimp organic acceleration or AI monetization traction. Catalysts that flip me to the sidelines: TurboTax unit declines accelerating or operating margin rolling back toward 22%. Net: this is a 'patient accumulator' name, not a 'buy today' name — the quality earns it a permanent spot in the book, the price earns it only a starter.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+98 Strong edge √Σ 163 · risk √Σ 65 · conf 8/10

Revenue compounded from $9.63B (2021) to $18.83B (2025), ~18% CAGR, while operating margin troughed at 20.2% in 2022 (Credit Karma/Mailchimp integration) and recovered to 26.1% in 2025 — a clear sign the M&A-driven margin dip was transitory and operating leverage is reasserting. Net income nearly doubled from $2.06B to $3.87B, and FCF expanded from $3.13B to $6.08B, with OCF/NI at 1.77x and accruals at -7.2% of assets — earnings are backed by cash, not accrual gymnastics. Beneish M of -2.45 and Altman Z of 4.64 corroborate clean books.

Capital discipline is genuine: diluted shares went 273M → 283M over five years (0.9% CAGR), and buybacks of ~125% of SBC mean per-share value is being protected despite SBC running at 10.5% of revenue (high in absolute dollars, ~$2B). Net debt of -$1.42B against $6B+ annual FCF is a non-issue — leverage would clear in roughly a quarter if management chose to.

The franchise (TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, Mailchimp) shows the hallmarks of a moat — 80%+ gross margins sustained through aggressive acquisition integration, and pricing power evident in revenue per share growth. CFO Prabhu's two open-market purchases totaling ~$542K in May 2026 is a small but meaningfully positive signal from a senior officer.

Strengths 6
m85
Elite FCF generation and quality
FCF grew from $3.13B to $6.08B over five years; OCF/NI of 1.77x and accruals -7.2% of assets confirm earnings are cash-backed, not paper.
m75
Operating leverage reasserted post-M&A
Operating margin fell to 20.2% in 2022 absorbing Credit Karma/Mailchimp, then rebuilt to 26.1% in 2025 — same level as 2021 on nearly 2x revenue.
m70
Share count discipline
Diluted shares 273M → 283M (0.9% CAGR) with buybacks at 125% of SBC — per-share economics protected despite stock comp of ~10.5% of revenue.
m65
Sustained 80%+ gross margins
GM% held 78–82% across the period, signaling durable pricing power across the TurboTax/QuickBooks/Credit Karma/Mailchimp portfolio.
m45
CFO open-market buying
CFO Prabhu bought ~$542K across two May 2026 transactions — small dollars but directional conviction from a senior officer who knows the numbers.
m50
Clean forensic signature
Beneish M -2.45 and Altman Z 4.64 (safe zone) — no mechanical red flags for manipulation or distress.
Concerns 3
m40
Net debt position
Net cash of -$1.42B means the balance sheet isn't a fortress; however, with $6B FCF, debt could be cleared in ~3 quarters — a constraint, not a threat.
m45
Heavy SBC in absolute dollars
SBC at 10.5% of revenue (~$2B/yr) is large; buybacks neutralize dilution but the true compensation expense is a real economic cost reducing reported profitability quality.
m25
Growth partly acquisition-driven
The 2021→2022 revenue jump from $9.63B to $12.73B reflects Mailchimp consolidation, so headline CAGR overstates organic momentum.
This is a genuinely high-quality business. The cash conversion is excellent, the books look clean by every mechanical check, and management has done what mature compounders are supposed to do — absorb two large acquisitions without breaking the margin structure or letting the share count balloon. The only real quality knocks are that they carry a small net debt position (trivial relative to FCF) and that SBC is large in dollar terms even if neutralized by buybacks. I'd want to verify the organic growth rate and TurboTax's exposure to IRS Direct File before calling it Fortress, but on the data in front of me this is a Strong, durable franchise with disciplined capital allocation.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Organic vs. acquired revenue split — strip Mailchimp/Credit Karma contribution to gauge true organic growth rate
  • Customer/segment concentration in QuickBooks and TurboTax — what % of revenue is small-business vs. consumer tax?
  • TurboTax exposure to IRS Direct File expansion and any structural threat to consumer tax franchise
  • Goodwill and intangibles as % of assets and any impairment risk from Mailchimp acquisition
  • Detailed SBC breakdown — performance vs. RSU mix and dilution mechanics over next 3 years
  • Debt maturity schedule and weighted average interest rate to confirm net debt is benign
+7 Modestly Cheap edge √Σ 75 · risk √Σ 68 · conf 6/10
Price $297 vs deserved ~$340-380 (discounting the $518 signal-adj as too aggressive and the $125 EPV as too punitive) — roughly 15-20% gap, modestly cheap not deeply cheap. attractive below $260.00

The e2e composite FV of $385.69 implies ~30% upside and the signal-adjusted $518 implies 75% — but that signal-adjusted number leans on a DCF print of $516 that I'd discount as runaway (it requires sustained high-teens FCF growth and benign terminal assumptions for a $80B-cap SaaS already at scale). The EPV floor of $125 is the opposite extreme — punishing a genuinely growing franchise to a no-growth steady state. Triangulating, a defensible deserved value for a quality-98 business with mid-teens growth, ~30%+ FCF margins, and durable moats around TurboTax/QuickBooks sits closer to the $340-380 range, putting today's $297 at roughly a 15-20% discount.

What's priced in at $297: the bear case is getting partial credit — IRS Direct File overhang, AI disruption fear, and a deceleration narrative. The stock isn't priced for perfection; it's priced for a business that has lost some of its premium multiple. That's the source of the gap. But it's not deep value either — you're paying a full-ish multiple (~28-30x FCF) for a business the market already knows is excellent. The margin of safety is real but modest; one guidance cut and it evaporates.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Composite FV implies ~30% upside
Composite $385.69 vs price $296.76 = ~30% upside on the blended methodology — a real but not extraordinary gap for a quality compounder.
m45
Fallen-angel setup with quality intact
Stock has derated on AI/IRS Direct File fears while the quality lens scores 98 with clean cash conversion — classic narrative-driven discount on a still-compounding business.
m25
Bear case partially in the price
The IRS Direct File and AI-disruption fears are already weighing on the multiple; if those threats prove manageable (likely, given enterprise/SMB stickiness), there's room for re-rating.
Rich / priced-in 3
m50
Signal-adjusted $518 FV is not credible
A fair value 75% above price on an $80B-cap mature SaaS implies heroic FCF growth assumptions; the DCF print of $516 should be heavily discounted as a runaway model, not taken at face value.
m35
EPV floor at $125 is a real warning
No-growth EPV of $125 is 58% below today's price — meaning ~60% of the current market cap is paying for future growth that must materialize. Limits true downside protection.
m30
Heavy SBC dilutes the FCF narrative
Quality lens flags heavy SBC; on an SBC-adjusted basis the FCF multiple is richer than headline ~28-30x suggests, narrowing the real margin of safety.
Modestly cheap, not a screaming buy. The $297 price gives you maybe 15-20% to a defensible deserved value once I throw out the $518 runaway DCF and the $125 EPV floor and triangulate to something like $340-380. That's a real discount on a genuinely elite business, but it's not the kind of gap where I pound the table. I'd want it closer to $260 — roughly 30% off my deserved value and a level where the EPV floor starts mattering less — before this becomes a high-conviction value setup. At today's price it's a 'fine, you can own it' rather than 'back up the truck.'
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY guidance for Consumer (TurboTax) revenue growth — any sign of Direct File impact would reset deserved value
  • Credit Karma segment trajectory and contribution margin — key swing factor in DCF
  • SBC as % of revenue trend — to properly haircut FCF
  • Mailchimp and Credit Karma goodwill — any impairment signal on the acquisitions
  • AI product monetization commentary on next call — Intuit Assist attach rates
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16