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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Low · Gem Score -19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 69 · Value -78 · Sentiment 4 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $114.08 vs $275.94 at analysis
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Vulcan Materials Company
VMC NYSEVulcan Materials Company is a leading building materials company that supplies the foundational products used in infrastructure, commercial development, and residential construction. The company is primarily focused on construction aggregates, including crushed stone, sand, and gravel, and also produces asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete through its operating segments. Its products support road building, public works, and large-scale construction projects, making it an important supplier within the North American construction materials market. Vulcan Materials Company serves contractors, government agencies, and other customers that rely on durable raw materials for essential construction and maintenance work. Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, the company plays a central role in the production and distribution of materials that form the base of modern infrastructure.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 8.11
Total Equity: $8.55B
Shares: 132,700,000
Total Debt: $4.36B
Cash: $183.30M
EBITDA: $2.37B
Total Debt: $4.36B
Cash: $183.30M
Revenue: $7.94B
Revenue: $7.94B
Revenue: $7.94B
Total Equity: $8.55B
Tax Rate: 22.1%
Equity: $8.55B
Total Debt: $4.36B
Cash: $183.30M
Current Liabilities: $956.10M
Long-Term Debt: $4.36B
Total Debt: $4.36B
Total Equity: $8.55B
Shares: 132,700,000
Shares: 132,700,000
CapEx: -$677.70M
Shares: 132,700,000
Stock Price: $275.94
Net Income: $1.08B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 6:39am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $7.3B | $7.8B | $7.4B | $7.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.2B | $5.8B | $5.8B | $5.4B | $5.8B |
| Gross Profit | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $362.6M | $606.3M | $521.1M | $635.1M | $555.0M |
| Operating Income | $1.0B | $951.4M | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Net Income | $670.8M | $575.6M | $933.2M | $911.9M | $1.1B |
| EBITDA | $1.5B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.4B |
| EPS | $5.05 | $4.33 | $7.02 | $6.89 | $8.16 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.02 | $4.31 | $6.98 | $6.85 | $8.11 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 5:00am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $235.0M | $161.4M | $931.1M | $559.7M | $183.3M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| Total Assets | $13.7B | $14.2B | $14.5B | $17.1B | $16.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $769.3M | $956.6M | $797.6M | $1.2B | $956.1M |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.9B | $3.9B | $3.9B | $4.9B | $4.4B |
| Total Liabilities | $7.1B | $7.3B | $7.0B | $9.0B | $8.2B |
| Total Equity | $6.6B | $7.0B | $7.5B | $8.1B | $8.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.7B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.2B | $5.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 6:39am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$451.3M | -$612.6M | -$872.6M | -$603.5M | -$677.7M |
| Free Cash Flow | $560.6M | $535.6M | $664.2M | $806.1M | $1.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.6B | -$529.2M | $900,000 | -$2.3B | -$13.5M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $148.3M | -$7.7M | $-500,000 | $1.4B | -$400.5M |
| Dividends Paid | -$196.4M | -$212.6M | -$228.4M | -$244.4M | -$259.8M |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | -$200.0M | -$68.8M | -$438.4M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$956.5M | -$80.0M | $787.7M | -$348.4M | -$411.4M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 6:39am (43d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | — | +6.4% | -4.7% | +7.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +13.4% | +25.1% | +2.6% | +8.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | -5.9% | +50.0% | -4.4% | +18.7% |
| Net Income Growth | -14.2% | +62.1% | -2.3% | +18.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | +4.4% | +32.8% | -2.3% | +18.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 23, 2026 8:31am (45d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-09 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-04 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-01 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-10 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-25 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-03 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-14 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-16 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-26 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-28 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-15 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:32A +1σ run of quarters pays -60%; a −1σ run costs 77%. Ratio -0.8:1 (μ 4.6%, σ 6.5% , 9 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($275.94) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +7% | 21.3% | $130.55 | -53% |
| Base — stabilizes | +5% | 18.5% | $106.85 | -61% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 15.7% | $85.85 | -69% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +3% | 12.7% | $73.17 | -73% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +11% | 15.2% | $110.07 | -60% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -2% | 13.0% | $63.65 | -77% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-25 06:47The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Reading the raw tape first: VMC did $7.94B in 2025 revenue vs $7.42B in 2024 (+7%) with net income $1.08B vs $912M (+18%). But the quarterly trajectory is the tell — Q1 2026 rev $1.76B with 9.4% margin is a step-down from Q3 2025's $2.29B/16.4%. Aggregates are seasonal (Q1 is always the trough), so YoY is the honest comp: Q1 2026 $1.76B vs Q1 2025 $1.63B = +8% revenue, and net income $165.5M vs $128.9M = +28%. That's actually accelerating on margin, not decelerating. The "Low Revenue Confidence — decelerating" flag looks like it's tripping on seasonality, which is a model artifact, not a fundamental signal.
On valuation: EV/EBITDA of 17.1x and P/E of 34x are objectively rich for a rock-crushing business. Historical VMC trades 20-25x P/E; 34x is a real premium. But the synthesis verdict of $137 fair value (-50%) is absurd on its face — that would imply a P/E of ~17x and EV/EBITDA of ~9x on a business with 20% operating margins, a genuine geographic moat (aggregates don't ship economically beyond ~50 miles), and FCF that grew at 30.7% CAGR. Peers MLM and Eagle Materials trade in similar 25-30x P/E territory; the entire aggregates complex is expensive because permitting a new quarry near a metro is functionally impossible. The DCF model is anchored on trailing cash flows and missing the reserve-scarcity option value. I'd put fair value closer to $220-240 (roughly 25-27x forward earnings assuming ~$10 EPS run-rate), not $137. So the synthesis is directionally right (overvalued) but the magnitude is wrong by half.
The narrative layer nails the setup: this IS a platform-monopoly-lite story where the "platform" is irreplaceable reserve footprint. The bull case (IIJA infrastructure dollars finally hitting, housing supply gap, reshoring capex) has real substance — federal highway obligations are up materially and state DOT lettings remain elevated into 2026. The bear case that matters isn't recession (VMC survived 2008-2011 with volumes down 40% and came out fine) — it's that 27% gross margins and 20% operating margins may already reflect peak pricing power. Aggregates pricing rose ~12% in 2023 and ~10% in 2024; a reversion to 3-5% price growth with flat volumes crushes the earnings algorithm the market is capitalizing at 34x. The insider activity (option exercises + F-InKind tax withholdings, no open-market buys or sells) is genuinely neutral — don't overread it.
Contrarian angle the models miss: debt is $4.36B against $183M cash — net debt/EBITDA of ~2x is manageable but not fortress, and VMC has been an active acquirer (US Concrete, Wake Stone). If a large tuck-in comes, leverage steps up right as we're potentially at cycle peak margins. ROIC of 9.9% is below WACC-plus for a business trading at 4.3x book — the market is paying for future ROIC expansion, not current returns. That's a fragile setup. My verdict: overvalued, but not catastrophically so. The synthesis $137 target is wrong; the "premium to a durable moat" framing from the narrative layer is closer to reality. I'd be a buyer at $200-215 (25x normalized ~$8.50 EPS), a holder in the $220-250 range, and I'd trim above $270. At $276 with Q1 already showing seasonal weakness and infrastructure comps getting harder in H2 2026, risk/reward is skewed negative but this is not a short — the moat is too real and the reserve scarcity too structural. Partial agreement with the synthesis direction, strong dissent on the magnitude.
GPT Reading
Vulcan is a very good business priced like an exceptional one. What jumps out in the raw numbers is not fragility of operations, but the mismatch between steady-but-not-explosive fundamentals and a valuation assuming a long runway of above-cycle economics. Revenue rose from $7.42B in 2024 to $7.94B in 2025, up 7%, while net income increased from $911.9M to $1.08B, up 18%. That is real improvement, and margins are clearly better than they were in 2022, when $7.32B of revenue produced only $575.6M of net income. But it is still a cyclical building materials company growing low-to-mid single digits over time: 2023 revenue was actually higher than 2024, and the stated revenue CAGR is just 1%. Against that, the market is paying 34x earnings, 17.1x EBITDA, 4.6x sales, and over 4.2x book. For a business with ROIC around 9.9% and ROE 12.6%, those are rich, even after giving full credit for reserve scarcity and pricing power.
The quarterly pattern reinforces that this is a quality cyclical, not a secular compounder. The latest quarter, 2026-03-31, showed revenue of $1.76B versus $1.63B a year earlier, and net income of $165.5M versus $128.9M, so the year-on-year trend is healthy. But sequentially, the business still swings with seasonality and project timing: margins ranged from 7.9% in 2025’s first quarter to 16.4% in the third quarter, then back to 9.4% in 2026’s first quarter. That volatility is normal for the industry; the problem is the multiple is not normal for the industry. Even if I annualize something close to 2025 earnings power, the stock at $275.94 capitalizes the company at $35.76B for about $1.08B of net income and $1.14B of free cash flow. That is roughly a 3.2% FCF yield before asking whether 2025 represented favorable pricing, mix, and infrastructure tailwinds. With only $183M of cash against $4.36B of debt, the balance sheet is fine, not distressed, but also not a hidden source of upside.
What I do like is the operating quality. Gross margin improved to 27.4% in 2025 from 26.9% in 2024 and 21.3% in 2022; operating margin reached 20.4%, a very strong level for this industry. Operating cash flow of $1.81B on $1.08B of earnings is a sign the profits are real, and capex of $678M still left $1.14B of free cash flow. The company also appears to enjoy genuine structural advantages: scarce permitted reserves near demand centers and the ability to push price over time. That supports a premium to commodity producers and probably a premium to the average building materials peer. But the current valuation seems to price in not merely a premium, but persistence of near-peak margins and sustained growth that the revenue history does not yet justify. If this were a 22x-25x earnings stock, I could make the scarcity case comfortably; at 34x, the market is paying today for several years of tomorrow’s good news.
The best argument against my view is that Vulcan is not just another cyclical producer and should not be valued on old-cycle frameworks. A smart bull would point to the leap in annual net income from $575.6M in 2022 to $1.08B in 2025, the 30.7% FCF CAGR, and the recent quarter’s 18.1% earnings growth. They would say public infrastructure, reshoring-related construction, and the housing shortage can keep aggregates demand firmer for longer, while the permitting moat limits supply response and makes price increases sticky. On that view, 17x EBITDA is not crazy because replacement cost and reserve scarcity matter more than near-term EPS. I take that seriously, and it is why I would not call the business broken or the equity obviously dangerous. But even strong assets can be overowned at the wrong price. When a company with 1% revenue CAGR and sub-10% ROIC trades at a level implying durable scarcity rents far into the future, the burden of proof shifts to continued acceleration.
What would change my mind is simple: I would need to see growth catch up to the multiple. If Vulcan can sustain quarterly revenue growth in the high single digits while holding net margins above 14%-15%, and convert that into annual free cash flow materially above $1.3B-$1.5B without leverage creeping up, then a premium valuation becomes easier to defend. Likewise, if annual revenue can move convincingly through $8.5B with operating income compounding faster than sales, I would revisit the bearish valuation stance. Absent that, I think fair value is materially below the current quote; this is a very solid operator, but at $275.94 investors are paying for a best-case cycle and a monopoly-like endurance that the numbers have not fully earned.
Grok Reading
Vulcan’s numbers describe a high-quality mature aggregates franchise that has already harvested most of the easy margin expansion the market is still paying for. Full-year 2025 revenue of $7.94B sits only modestly above 2023’s $7.78B and 2024’s $7.42B; the revenue CAGR is roughly 1 percent and the latest quarterly trend is decelerating. What moved was profitability: net income climbed from $576M in 2022 to $1.08B in 2025, operating margin reached 20.4 percent, and free cash flow hit $1.14B on $1.81B of operating cash flow against $678M of capex. That is real operating leverage and pricing power in a tight local-market oligopoly. But at $275.94 the stock trades at 34x trailing earnings, 17.1x EV/EBITDA, 4.6x sales and a free-cash-flow yield of only about 3.2 percent. For a business whose top line barely grows through the cycle, those multiples embed a multi-year volume and pricing boom that the income statement has not yet delivered. Seasonality remains intact—Q1 2026 revenue of $1.76B and a 9.4 percent net margin look like the normal winter trough, not a new run-rate—so the annual numbers still have to carry the valuation.
Balance-sheet quality is adequate rather than fortress: $4.36B of debt against $183M of cash and $8.55B of equity produces a 0.51 debt-to-equity ratio and a comfortable 2.7 current ratio, while ROIC of 9.9 percent and ROE of 12.6 percent are respectable for heavy materials but hardly extraordinary at a 34x multiple. Insider activity is noise—option exercises and tax withholdings, no open-market conviction buys or sells. The quantitative models’ composite fair value near $137–148 is directionally correct even if mechanically harsh; a more generous 22–25x on roughly $8.30 of trailing EPS still lands in the $180–210 zone, 25–35 percent below the current quote. The market is paying a scarcity and infrastructure-narrative premium that has already been partially realized in the margin structure.
The strongest counter-argument is that aggregates near population centers are genuinely non-replicable: permitting timelines stretch a decade, freight costs create local monopolies, and Vulcan’s land bank plus pricing discipline have already lifted gross margin to 27.4 percent. If the infrastructure and public-works cycle sustains high utilization for another three to five years, earnings could compound mid-teens while the multiple only modestly compresses, producing acceptable total returns from here. FCF CAGR of 30.7 percent and the recent 18 percent earnings jump show the operating model can still surprise. A smart bull also notes that replacement-cost and reserve-value math can justify premiums that simple DCF multiples miss. I weigh that less heavily because the same pricing power is already in the trailing numbers; further upside requires volume growth the company has not demonstrated on a multi-year basis, and a construction slowdown would compress both earnings and the 34x multiple simultaneously.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only if trailing twelve-month revenue growth sustains above 8 percent for three consecutive quarters while net margins hold above 13 percent through a weaker housing or public-spending print, or if the shares re-rate toward the mid-20x PE range without a collapse in earnings power.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Vulcan Materials shows the hallmarks of a durable, well-run cyclical: revenue grew from $7.32B (2022) to $7.94B (2025) while gross margin expanded from 21.3% to 27.4% and operating margin from 13% to 20.4%. Net income rose from $575.6M to $1.08B and FCF doubled from $535.6M to $1.14B over the same span - clear evidence of pricing power and operating leverage in the aggregates business. OCF/NI of 1.68x and negative accruals (-3.6% of assets) indicate earnings are backed by cash, and Altman Z of 4.01 places the balance sheet in the safe zone despite leverage. Capital discipline is intact: diluted share count actually shrank slightly (133.5M to 132.7M), SBC is only 0.8% of revenue, and buybacks run 2.76x SBC - per-share value is being protected, not diluted. Insider tape is unremarkable (routine option exercises with in-kind tax withholding; a single small $570K sale). The main constraint is $4.18B net debt against only $183M liquid cash - not a survival issue given $1.14B annual FCF (roughly 3.7x coverage of net debt by FCF over a few years), but it means the balance sheet is a working tool rather than a fortress cushion. This is a mature earner executing well within a structurally advantaged industry.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted average interest rate on the $4.18B net debt
- Aggregates pricing vs volume mix in the recent margin expansion (pricing-led is more durable than mix)
- Acquisition pipeline and integration cadence - VMC has been an active roll-up buyer
- Segment breakdown between Aggregates and Asphalt/Concrete/Calcium for margin quality
- Any pension or environmental remediation liabilities not captured in headline debt
The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $147.74 and the signal-adjusted FV at $137.38, implying roughly -50% downside from the $275.94 price. Two of three methods (DCF $94.53, EPV floor $85.06) point to a business worth well under half of today's quote; only the anchored-PE at $316.83 supports the price, and that method essentially capitalizes peak multiples on peak margins - exactly what you'd expect to break in a cyclical aggregates name. Even generously blending in the anchored-PE, a fair mid-point sits around $165-$180, still 35-40% below spot. The Company-Quality lens (score 69, Strong) legitimately raises deserved value above pure DCF/EPV floors - pricing power in a permits-limited industry deserves a premium multiple - but not to 3x EPV. What's priced in: multi-year mid-single-digit volume growth, continued pricing gains above cost inflation, and expanding EBITDA margins through a full cycle. That's a heroic stack for a cyclical commodity business carrying $4.18B net debt. The bear case (cyclical demand air-pocket, multiple compression) is not remotely reflected at 30x+ earnings. This is a great business at a full-to-rich price - the mispricing edge here is negative.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward volume and pricing guidance in latest 10-Q/transcript - is mid-single-digit price still landing?
- Segment margin trajectory and whether cost inflation is being fully passed through
- IIJA/infrastructure backlog conversion timing and any softening in residential end-markets
- Any large M&A that would reset the deserved-value math (VMC has been acquisitive)
Vulcan sits under a strong, durable platform-monopoly narrative tied to infrastructure spend, housing supply, and irreplaceable aggregates reserves. That story is doing real work here: it justifies a rich multiple and keeps the stock bid on any macro reassurance. But the story is also mature and priced-in, so incremental narrative fuel is scarce. Analyst tone is only somewhat bullish and the stock has lagged the broader tape over the past year, meaning sentiment is supportive but not euphoric.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any cracks in infrastructure/housing headline flow (IIJA outlays, single-family starts)
- Broker target revisions or downgrades citing multiple concerns
- Cyclical rotation out of building materials into defensives if VIX pushes higher
- Rate direction - a break lower in the 10y would meaningfully help sentiment
The world is short of hard, permitted rock near growing metros and long of financing cost. That combination is unusually kind to Vulcan: reserve scarcity and freight economics hand it durable local pricing while high rates suppress the private construction volumes that would otherwise invite capacity additions. Public infrastructure spending, reshoring-driven industrial builds and data-center/power construction are aggregates-intensive and relatively rate-insensitive, providing a demand floor. But nothing in the macro set-up produces a volume boom: 10y at 4.74, a flagged sector slowdown and a mature industry mean growth must come from price, mix and cost — levers that compound at high-single to low-double-digit earnings rates, not at anything resembling a step-change.
When we made this prediction on Aug 25, 2026, VMC was $274.64. We expect it to be $250.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $170.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 25, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.