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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 96% complete · +6 refreshed

The Ensign Group, Inc.

ENSG NASDAQ Categories PDF
Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilities
San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675, United States IPO 2007 ensigngroup.net Updated Jun 7, 2:07pm
Price
$170.30
Market Cap
$10.0B
Employees
39,300
Beta
0.68
Avg Volume
441,420
CEO
Barry R. Port
Business Description

The Ensign Group, Inc. provides health care services in the post-acute care continuum and other ancillary businesses. The company operates in two segments, Skilled Services and Real Estate. The company offers skilled services, which include short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly; and physical, occupational, and speech therapies and other rehabilitative and healthcare services. It also provides standard services, such as room and board, special nutritional programs, social, recreational, entertainment, and other services. In addition, the company offers senior living, as well as mobile diagnostics services; leases real estate properties; and provides other ancillary services consisting of digital x-ray, ultrasound, electrocardiogram, laboratory, sub-acute, and patient transportation services to people in their homes or at long-term care facilities. As of April 4, 2022, it operated 252 healthcare facilities in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in San Juan Capistrano, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:17pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
$170.30
+6.01 (+3.66%)
Day Range
$165.62 – $171.26
52-Week Range
$134.79 – $218.00
50-Day MA
$186.20
200-Day MA
$183.92
Volume
493,303.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $215.00
Consensus $222.33
High $230.00
(17 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 58,445,400.00
Float 56,350,716.00
Free Float 96.4%
High free float — 96.4% of shares trade freely, ~3.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:16pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
27.08
Stock Price: $170.30
EPS (Diluted): 6.00
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.47
Stock Price: $170.30
Total Equity: $2.23B
Shares: 58,873,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
19.61
Market Cap: $9.95B
Total Debt: $2.09B
Cash: $503.88M
EBITDA: $567.94M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$13.6B
Market Cap: $9.95B
Total Debt: $2.09B
Cash: $503.88M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
15.8%
Gross Profit: $799.45M
Revenue: $5.06B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
8.4%
Operating Income: $425.31M
Revenue: $5.06B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
6.8%
Net Income: $343.97M
Revenue: $5.06B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
16.6%
Net Income: $343.97M
Total Equity: $2.23B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
7.0%
Operating Income: $425.31M
Tax Rate: 24.4%
Equity: $2.23B
Total Debt: $2.09B
Cash: $503.88M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.42
Current Assets: $1.27B
Current Liabilities: $894.35M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.94
Short-Term Debt: $4.23M
Long-Term Debt: $2.09B
Total Debt: $2.09B
Total Equity: $2.23B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$85.91
Revenue: $5.06B
Shares: 58,873,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$37.91
Total Equity: $2.23B
Shares: 58,873,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.30
Operating CF: $564.27M
CapEx: -$193.56M
Shares: 58,873,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.1%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $170.30
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $343.97M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:16pm
Compares ENSG against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:20:53 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.6B $3.0B $3.7B $4.3B $5.1B
Cost of Revenue $2.2B $2.5B $3.1B $3.6B $4.3B
Gross Profit $468.2M $518.0M $590.8M $667.6M $799.5M
Operating Expenses $207.7M $221.2M $335.4M $309.3M $374.1M
Operating Income $260.5M $296.8M $255.4M $358.3M $425.3M
Net Income $194.7M $224.7M $209.4M $298.0M $344.0M
EBITDA $320.8M $360.4M $353.2M $478.5M $567.9M
EPS $3.57 $4.09 $3.76 $5.26 $6.00
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $262.2M $316.3M $509.6M $464.6M $503.9M
Total Current Assets $639.7M $781.1M $1.0B $1.2B $1.3B
Total Assets $2.9B $3.5B $4.2B $4.7B $5.5B
Current Liabilities $523.1M $582.1M $734.7M $743.4M $894.3M
Long-Term Debt $152.9M $149.3M $145.5M $141.6M $2.1B
Total Liabilities $1.8B $2.2B $2.7B $2.8B $3.2B
Total Equity $1.0B $1.2B $1.5B $1.8B $2.2B
Retained Earnings $734.0M $946.3M $1.1B $1.4B $1.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $275.7M $272.5M $376.7M $347.2M $564.3M
Capital Expenditure -$69.6M -$87.5M -$106.2M -$158.2M -$193.6M
Free Cash Flow $206.1M $185.0M $270.5M $188.9M $370.7M
Acquisitions (net) -$8.0M -$16.4M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$11.8M -$31.6M -$1.9M -$1.2M -$21.4M
Net Change in Cash $25.6M $54.1M $193.4M -$45.0M $39.3M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $5.1B
$5.1B – $5.1B
$5.8B
$5.8B – $5.9B
$6.4B
$6.4B – $6.5B
$7.0B
$7.0B – $7.0B
EBITDA $567.7M
$566.6M – $570.4M
$654.8M
$653.7M – $657.9M
$721.1M
$712.1M – $730.2M
$789.3M
$789.3M – $789.3M
Net Income $383.9M
$382.7M – $385.1M
$446.0M
$444.4M – $447.7M
$490.1M
$476.2M – $504.0M
$528.4M
$488.4M – $567.2M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:21pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +15.1% +23.3% +14.2% +18.7%
Gross Profit Growth +10.6% +14.0% +13.0% +19.8%
Operating Income Growth +14.0% -14.0% +40.3% +18.7%
Net Income Growth +15.4% -6.8% +42.3% +15.4%
EBITDA Growth +12.3% -2.0% +35.5% +18.7%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:18pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-02 SMITH BARRY M S-Sale 700.00 $164.28 $114,996
2026-05-26 Burton Spencer F-InKind 281.00 $172.42 $48,450
2026-05-27 Burton Spencer F-InKind 264.00 $171.97 $45,400
2026-05-26 Keetch Chad F-InKind 326.00 $172.42 $56,209
2026-05-27 Keetch Chad F-InKind 306.00 $171.97 $52,623
2026-05-26 Port Barry F-InKind 509.00 $172.42 $87,762
2026-05-27 Port Barry F-InKind 509.00 $171.97 $87,533
2026-05-26 Snapper Suzanne D. F-InKind 458.00 $172.42 $78,968
2026-05-27 Snapper Suzanne D. F-InKind 458.00 $171.97 $78,762
2026-05-26 Wittekind Beverly B. F-InKind 123.00 $172.42 $21,208
2026-05-27 Wittekind Beverly B. F-InKind 102.00 $171.97 $17,541
2026-05-15 Wittekind Beverly B. F-InKind 102.00 $177.67 $18,122
2026-05-18 Wittekind Beverly B. F-InKind 102.00 $176.66 $18,019
2026-05-18 Wittekind Beverly B. F-InKind 102.00 $176.66 $18,019
2026-05-18 Uychiat Pison Marivic F-InKind 82.00 $176.66 $14,486
2026-05-18 Snapper Suzanne D. F-InKind 489.00 $176.66 $86,387
2026-05-18 Port Barry F-InKind 550.00 $176.66 $97,163
2026-05-18 Keetch Chad F-InKind 387.00 $176.66 $68,367
2026-05-18 Burton Spencer F-InKind 351.00 $176.66 $62,008
2026-05-04 SMITH BARRY M S-Sale 700.00 $182.21 $127,547
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-03-31 $0.07 2026-03-20 2026-03-31 2026-04-30
2025-12-31 $0.07 2025-12-19 2025-12-31 2026-01-31
2025-09-30 $0.06 2025-09-19 2025-09-30 2025-10-31
2025-06-30 $0.06 2025-06-19 2025-06-30 2025-07-31
2025-03-31 $0.06 2025-03-20 2025-03-31 2025-04-30
2024-12-31 $0.06 2024-12-13 2024-12-31 2025-01-31
2024-09-30 $0.06 2024-09-13 2024-09-30 2024-10-31
2024-06-28 $0.06 2024-06-14 2024-06-30 2024-07-31
2024-03-27 $0.06 2024-03-22 2024-03-31 2024-04-30
2023-12-28 $0.06 2023-12-15 2023-12-31 2024-01-31
2023-09-28 $0.06 2023-09-15 2023-09-30 2023-10-31
2023-06-29 $0.06 2023-06-16 2023-06-30 2023-07-31
2023-03-30 $0.06 2023-03-17 2023-03-31 2023-04-28
2022-12-29 $0.06 2022-12-16 2022-12-31 2023-01-31
2022-09-29 $0.06 2022-09-16 2022-09-30 2022-10-31
2022-06-29 $0.06 2022-06-17 2022-06-30 2022-07-29
2022-03-30 $0.06 2022-03-18 2022-03-31 2022-04-29
2021-12-30 $0.06 2021-12-17 2021-12-31 2022-01-31
2021-09-29 $0.05 2021-09-17 2021-09-30 2021-10-31
2021-06-29 $0.05 2021-06-18 2021-06-30 2021-07-31
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ENSG.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:50:38
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 8/10
Genuinely strong operator (quality +73) trading ~10-15% above fair value (value -52) — right business, wrong price.
The cruxWhether you get a pullback into the $140s; the quality is settled, the entry isn't.
Company Quality
+73
Strong
edge √Σ 139 · risk √Σ 65 · conf 8/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-52
Rich
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 91 · conf 7/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

I love the business and won't pay up for it. The quality lens at +73 is doing exactly what it should — telling me Ensign is a real compounder with clean cash conversion (OCF/NI 1.45x), disciplined dilution, and a flywheel that's nearly doubled revenue in four years. But the value lens at -52 is just as clear: $170 against a $147-153 fair value cluster means I'm funding the optimism, not buying it. The DCF stretch to $187 is the only method that makes today work, and it's the most assumption-heavy. No margin of safety, and skilled nursing is not the industry where I want to be the one paying full freight — labor and reimbursement can re-rate this fast.

Playbook: this is a watchlist name with a hard limit, not a starter today. I put a bid in the $138-142 zone for a 1.5-2% starter position — that's the ~$140 attractive-below mark and roughly 18% below spot, which finally gives me the cushion the EPV floor of $65 says I need. If it gets to $125 on a broader healthcare drawdown or an operational wobble that doesn't break the thesis, I scale to a full 4-5% position. On the upside, I do nothing chasing — if it runs to $200+ on continued execution, fine, I missed it, the next opportunity will come because reimbursement scares are a recurring feature of this industry. The one thing that would flip me to buying here at $170 is a step-change in the acquisition pipeline or a balance-sheet event that materially de-risks the net debt — neither is on the table. Patience trade.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+73 Strong edge √Σ 139 · risk √Σ 65 · conf 8/10

Ensign has nearly doubled revenue from $2.63B (2021) to $5.06B (2025), a ~17.8% CAGR, while net income grew from $194.7M to $344.0M and FCF reached $370.7M. Gross margin has compressed modestly (17.8% → 15.8%) but operating margin has stabilized at 8.4% after a 2023 dip to 6.8%, suggesting the acquisition-led growth model is absorbing new facilities without permanent margin damage. Earnings quality is genuinely high: OCF/NI of 1.45x, accruals of -2.7% of assets, Beneish M of -2.58, and Altman Z of 3.57 all corroborate that reported earnings convert to cash.

Capital structure is the one area of constraint, not crisis: $572M liquid cash against $-1.52B net debt, but with $370M annual FCF and a self-funding profile, leverage is serviceable and consistent with a real-estate-heavy operator. Dilution discipline is solid — diluted share CAGR of 0.8%, SBC at only 1% of revenue — though buybacks recover just 43% of SBC, so per-share value is preserved but not actively enhanced via repurchases.

Management/insider behavior reads neutral-to-fine: the 34 'sales' over 12 months are dominated by F-coded tax-withholding events on vesting (not discretionary selling); only one true open-market S-sale ($115K by Smith) appears in the recent tape. No P buys, but no red-flag selling pattern either. This looks like a well-run, mature compounder in a structurally tough industry.

Strengths 4
m75
Durable top-line and earnings growth
Revenue compounded from $2.63B to $5.06B (2021-2025, ~17.8% CAGR) with net income up 77% to $344M — consistent execution in a hard industry.
m80
High earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.45x, accruals -2.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.58, Altman Z 3.57 — all four mechanical checks corroborate clean, cash-backed earnings.
m65
Dilution discipline
Diluted shares grew only from 56.9M to 58.9M over 4 years (0.8% CAGR); SBC is just 1% of revenue, so per-share economics are protected.
m55
Self-funding FCF profile
$370.7M FCF in 2025 funds growth and debt service without reliance on capital markets; FCF has roughly doubled from $206M in 2021.
Concerns 4
m45
Net debt position is the main constraint
Net cash of $-1.52B vs $572M liquid; balance sheet is a working tool, not a cushion. Acceptable for real-estate-backed operator but limits flexibility in a downturn.
m35
Gross margin slow drift
GM compressed from 17.8% (2021) to 15.8% (2025); operating margin recovered from a 2023 dip (6.8%) but hasn't returned to the 9.9% of 2021.
m25
Buybacks only partially offset SBC
Repurchases recover 43.4% of SBC — fine but not capital-return-positive; share count still creeping up.
m20
Insider tape is sells-only
0 open-market buys vs 34 sells ($7.56M) in 12 months, though most are F-coded tax withholding on vesting; only a small directional S-sale appears. Not a red flag, but no insider conviction signal.
This is a legitimately well-run business. The growth is real, the cash is real, the dilution is controlled, and the earnings-quality math is unambiguous — OCF beats net income by 45%, accruals are negative, Beneish and Altman both green. Skilled nursing is a hard industry with reimbursement and labor risk, and the modest GM drift hints at that pressure, but Ensign has navigated it while nearly doubling revenue. The balance sheet carries real net debt, which is the one thing keeping me from calling it Fortress, but for a real-estate-heavy operator generating $370M FCF, it's appropriate leverage rather than fragility. Insider tape is mostly tax-withholding noise, not selling pressure. Strong business.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement mix and exposure to rate changes — core to margin durability
  • Acquisition pipeline and goodwill/intangibles trend — model depends on facility roll-ups
  • Lease vs owned real estate split (Standard Bearer REIT spinoff structure) and true economic leverage
  • Labor cost trends (nursing wage inflation) as driver of GM compression from 17.8% to 15.8%
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants given $1.5B+ net debt
  • Same-store occupancy and skilled-mix trends underlying organic growth vs acquired growth
-52 Rich edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 91 · conf 7/10
Price $170.30 vs deserved ~$150 (composite $147, signal-adj $153) — ~10-13% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $140.00

Price is $170.30 against a composite FV of $146.55 and signal-adjusted FV of $153.33 — both point to roughly 10% downside, not upside. The DCF stretch case at $187 gets you a small premium, but it's the most assumption-heavy of the methods and the EPV floor of $65 reminds you what the business is worth without continued acquisition-driven growth. Average those honestly and deserved value clusters in the $140-155 zone.

This is a high-quality compounder (quality score 73, clean earnings, OCF 45% above NI), and that justifiably lifts deserved value toward the upper end of the FV range — but it does not justify paying above it. The market already knows Ensign is well-run; the steady-compounder narrative is in the tape. To make today's price work you need the acquisition flywheel to keep producing at historical rates against worsening labor and reimbursement headwinds — a reasonable base case, but not a discounted one.

No margin of safety here. Fairly-to-modestly-rich is the honest read; I'd want a real pullback before this is interesting on valuation alone.

Cheap signals 2
m30
DCF supports a modest premium
DCF at $187.42 is ~10% above price, suggesting if you trust the long-duration cash flow ramp, today isn't egregious. But it's one method and the most assumption-laden.
m25
Earnings quality is genuinely high
Score 3, OCF beats NI by 45%, negative accruals — no haircut warranted, which keeps deserved value at the top of the FV range rather than below it.
Rich / priced-in 3
m60
Price above composite and signal-adjusted FV
$170.30 sits ~16% above composite FV $146.55 and ~11% above signal-adj FV $153.33 — the synthesis explicitly flags -10% upside.
m55
EPV floor is far below price
EPV of $64.82 implies ~62% of today's price is embedded growth/acquisition value. Heroic relative to a no-growth baseline — fine for a compounder, but leaves zero downside cushion.
m40
Priced for continued flywheel execution
Steady-compounder narrative is consensus; labor inflation and reimbursement risk are not discounted in the price. Any operational stumble re-rates lower fast.
I'm not buying ENSG here. It's a genuinely strong business and I respect the operator, but at $170 against a $147-153 fair value cluster I'm paying full freight with no cushion. Quality is not a synonym for cheap. I'd need it back near $140 — call it ~15% lower — before the price-vs-value gap is interesting. Until then this is a watchlist name, not an action.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward occupancy and skilled-mix trends in next 10-Q — the margin drivers behind DCF assumptions
  • Acquisition pace and per-deal multiples — is the flywheel still finding cheap targets?
  • Medicare/Medicaid rate updates and labor cost trajectory in the next earnings call
  • Any one-time gains in recent OCF that would tighten the OCF/NI gap
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16