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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Watch · Gem Score +1 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 71 · Value -46 · Sentiment 25 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Birkenstock Holding plc
BIRK NYSEBirkenstock Holding plc is a renowned company specializing in the design and production of high-quality footwear. It is most famous for its iconic sandals, which feature a contoured cork footbed and durable materials, providing comfort and support. Founded in Germany, Birkenstock has grown into a global brand, known for its commitment to sustainability and quality craftsmanship. The company's products extend beyond sandals, including shoes, boots, and insoles, catering to a diverse clientele that values both style and functionality. Birkenstock has significantly impacted the fashion, retail, and health sectors, as its products are often recommended for their ergonomic benefits. The company distributes its footwear through various channels, including specialty stores, online platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales, enhancing its market presence worldwide. As a holding entity, Birkenstock Holding plc oversees various business operations and brand strategies, ensuring consistent growth and innovation. Its dedication to heritage and modernity makes it a unique player in the footwear industry, continuing to influence market trends and consumer preferences.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
Birkenstock Holding plc is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.
This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 3 annual reports, the latest filed 2025-12-18, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.16
Total Equity: $3.15B
Shares: 186,507,512
Total Debt: $1.32B
Cash: $380.70M
EBITDA: $767.13M
Total Debt: $1.32B
Cash: $380.70M
Revenue: $2.43B
Revenue: $2.43B
Revenue: $2.43B
Total Equity: $3.15B
Tax Rate: 25.9%
Equity: $3.15B
Total Debt: $1.32B
Cash: $380.70M
Current Liabilities: $524.86M
Long-Term Debt: $1.31B
Total Debt: $1.32B
Total Equity: $3.15B
Shares: 186,507,512
Shares: 186,507,512
CapEx: -$88.77M
Shares: 186,507,512
Stock Price: $39.35
Net Income: $402.99M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:25am (53d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $570.4M | $655.0M | $860.8M | $992.3M |
| Gross Profit | $867.5M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Operating Expenses | $447.5M | $769.5M | $740.0M | $798.5M |
| Operating Income | $420.0M | $301.6M | $487.2M | $635.8M |
| Net Income | $216.5M | $86.8M | $221.7M | $403.0M |
| EBITDA | $514.0M | $398.1M | $604.3M | $767.1M |
| EPS | $1.18 | $0.47 | $1.18 | $2.16 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.18 | $0.47 | $1.18 | $2.16 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:25am (53d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $272.3M | $355.3M | $398.5M | $411.7M | $380.7M |
| Total Current Assets | — | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Total Assets | — | $5.5B | $5.6B | $5.7B | $5.7B |
| Current Liabilities | — | $374.8M | $438.0M | $518.2M | $524.9M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | $2.2B | $2.1B | $1.4B | $1.3B |
| Total Liabilities | — | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| Total Equity | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.1B |
| Retained Earnings | — | $174.6M | $261.4M | $483.1M | $886.1M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:25am (53d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $270.9M | $415.0M | $496.0M | $444.6M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$81.9M | -$118.2M | -$75.7M | -$88.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | $189.0M | $296.8M | $420.3M | $355.8M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.2M | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$11.0M | -$61.1M | -$765.3M | -$58.0M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $66.1M | $67.9M | $17.2M | -$28.7M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:25am (53d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +20.0% | +21.0% | +16.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +23.5% | +14.6% | +16.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | -28.2% | +61.5% | +30.5% |
| Net Income Growth | -59.9% | +155.4% | +81.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | -22.6% | +51.8% | +26.9% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:14The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
ai-findings step) when a report is run on this ticker.
GPT Reading
What stands out first is that Birkenstock does not look like a fragile fashion IPO; it looks like a scaled premium brand with unusually strong unit economics. Revenue has gone from $1.44B in 2022 to $2.43B in 2025, a 69% increase in three years, while gross profit rose from $867.5M to $1.43B. Gross margin in 2025 was 59.1%, operating margin 26.2%, and net margin 16.6%—those are not commodity-footwear numbers. Even more important, the margin profile has improved while growing: operating income increased from $487.2M to $635.8M in the last year on $340M of incremental revenue, implying very attractive flow-through. Free cash flow of $355.8M against $403.0M of net income is solid conversion after $88.8M of capex, and on a $7.0B market cap that is about a 5.1% FCF yield. For a branded consumer company still growing revenue 16.2% and earnings 81.8%, that is better than “mature earner” economics; it is a quality compounder trading closer to a market multiple than a luxury-growth multiple.
The valuation also looks more reasonable than the cautionary models imply. At 18.2x earnings, 10.8x EV/EBITDA, and 3.0x sales, the stock is not being priced as if global domination is assured. On 2025 numbers, enterprise value is roughly $7.94B after netting $380.7M cash from $1.32B debt, so investors are paying under 12.5x operating income for a business generating 26% operating margins and double-digit top-line growth. That multiple would be unremarkable for a no-growth branded apparel name; for Birkenstock, which has lifted net income from $86.8M in 2023 to $403.0M in 2025, it looks discounted for durability concerns that may be overstated. The business also carries a healthy balance sheet for the model: debt to equity is only 0.42, current ratio is 2.8, and ROIC of 11.5% should keep climbing if the brand continues to scale globally without needing heavy capital.
The biggest anomaly in the raw data is 2022 versus 2023: revenue rose from $1.44B to $1.73B, but operating income fell from $420.0M to $301.6M and net income collapsed from $216.5M to $86.8M before rebounding sharply. That is exactly the kind of inconsistency that makes screens skeptical, but the 2024 and 2025 results matter more because they show that 2023 was not the new baseline. Operating margin recovered from 17.4% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024 and 26.2% in 2025, while net margin climbed from 5.0% to 10.6% to 16.6%. In other words, the brand’s pricing power and cost structure have reasserted themselves. If anything, the temporary 2023 dip may have taught the market to underwrite this as a choppier business than the last two years justify.
The best bear case is straightforward and not stupid: this is still a footwear company with concentrated brand identity, and the market may be extrapolating a post-pandemic normalization into a permanent premium lifestyle franchise. Revenue CAGR of 18.6% and earnings CAGR above 100% are unlikely to persist, and if growth slips from mid-teens to high single digits, then 3.0x sales and 18x earnings are less obviously cheap for a cyclical consumer name. The insider tape is not great optically either, with 90,000 shares sold in June 2026 and no offsetting open-market buys disclosed here. Bears will also point out that leverage is not trivial in absolute dollars at $1.32B, and that ROE of 12.8% is good but not exceptional enough to justify pretending this is an asset-light luxury house. I weigh those points less heavily because the cash generation is real, the margins are already elite, and the current multiple does not require heroic assumptions—just that Birkenstock remains a premium brand rather than reverting to a fad.
What would change my mind is not a macro wobble or one weak quarter; it would be evidence that the recent margin structure is unsustainable. If revenue growth falls below 10% while gross margin drops materially from 59% and operating margin retreats back toward the 2023 level below 20%, then the stock likely deserves the low-to-mid 30s implied by the more cautious models. Likewise, if free cash flow slips well below $300M despite continued reported earnings growth, I would worry that working capital or capex is masking weaker economics. Conversely, another year around $2.7B-$2.8B revenue with operating income above $700M would make $39 look too low and support a rerating into the mid-to-high $40s.
Grok Reading
Birkenstock’s financial trajectory from fiscal 2022 through 2025 is the story of a brand that has converted cultural heat into durable operating leverage rather than a one-cycle fashion spike. Revenue climbed from $1.44B to $2.43B, a roughly 19% CAGR, with the latest year still delivering 16% growth to $2.43B. More important is the margin path: operating income fell to $302M in the noisy 2023 IPO year, then rebounded to $487M in 2024 and $636M in 2025, lifting operating margin to 26.2% and net margin to 16.6% on $403M of net income. Gross margin holds near 59%, free cash flow reached $356M after only $89M of capex, and the balance sheet is unremarkable in a good way—$1.32B of debt against $381M cash and $3.15B equity, debt-to-equity 0.42, current ratio 2.8. At $39.35 and a $7B market cap the stock screens at 18.2x earnings, 10.8x EV/EBITDA, 3.0x sales and roughly a 5% FCF yield. Those are not frothy multiples for a 59% gross-margin franchise still growing mid-teens with expanding returns (ROE 12.8%, ROIC 11.5%). The prior valuation composite that anchors fair value near $35 and labels the name 10% rich is overweighting a compressed FCF CAGR (9.5%) that still reflects the post-IPO base and underweighting the clean step-up in earnings power now visible in the 2025 P&L.
The numbers also push back on the “mature earner with limited runway” framing. Earnings CAGR looks absurd at 115% only because 2023 net income was crushed to $87M; the underlying operating-profit recovery and subsequent expansion are real. Cash conversion is high-quality, revenue confidence is tagged high, and the business clears sector benchmarks on profitability. Insider activity is mostly option-related noise plus modest open-market sales, not a coordinated exit that should dominate the tape. In short, the market has already taken a roughly one-third haircut from the post-IPO highs and is now asking only 18x for a brand that just printed 26% operating margins and mid-teens top-line growth—an entry that looks closer to fair-to-cheap than expensive once the 2023 distortion is normalized away.
The strongest counter-case is straightforward and must be taken seriously. Fashion-cycle risk is not theoretical: Birkenstock’s recent momentum could prove to be a multi-year trend that mean-reverts, and the thesis score already tilts bearish on exactly that point—heritage durability masking cyclical demand. Geographic expansion, especially outside core Western markets, faces real distribution and cultural barriers that could cap the growth the current multiple still partially discounts. FCF has lagged the earnings explosion, recent insider sales of 90k shares are a small negative signal, and the macro tape is labeled headwinds for consumer discretionary. If volume slows to high-single digits while marketing and A&P spend rise to defend the brand, the 26% operating margin becomes the peak rather than the platform, and 18x earnings plus 3x sales quickly looks full. That is the intelligent bear argument: you are paying a quality-brand multiple for a sandal company whose incremental growth is harder and more cyclical than the last three years imply.
I would flip to a clear overvalued stance if fiscal 2026 revenue growth decelerates below ~8–10% with operating margin compression of 200 bp or more, or if FCF falls materially below $300M while inventory builds. Conversely, another year of mid-teens revenue growth with margins stable-to-up and FCF conversion holding near current levels would justify a higher multiple and a more aggressive bid below $36–37 on any pullback. Until those prints arrive, the data favor owning a high-quality compounder that has already been de-rated and still screens reasonably on cash earnings.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has scaled from $1.44B (2022) to $2.43B (2025), a ~19% CAGR, while gross margin has held in a tight 58.8-62.1% band - evidence of real pricing power and a brand moat rather than promotional growth. Operating margin dipped in 2023 (17.5%, likely IPO-related costs) but recovered to 26.2% in 2025, and net income nearly doubled from $221.7M to $403.0M year-over-year. FCF of $355.8M on $2.43B revenue (~14.6% margin) confirms the P&L is cash-backed, and OCF/NI of 2.34x with accruals at -3.1% of assets plus a Beneish M of -2.18 indicate no earnings-quality games. Dilution is essentially absent (diluted share CAGR 0.7%, SBC just 0.2% of revenue). The blemish is the balance sheet: net debt of ~$944M against $380.7M liquid cash and an Altman Z of 2.84 (grey zone) - a legacy of L Catterton's ownership. FCF comfortably services this, but it is a constraint, not a fortress. Insider tape shows only routine option exercises with tax withholdings and two modest sales (~$3.8M) by one executive - neutral, not a warning. Overall this is a durable, well-run consumer franchise with elite margins for footwear; the only reason it does not grade higher is the levered capital structure and the still-short track record as a public company.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Debt maturity schedule and interest coverage detail from the 10-K/20-F
- Customer/channel concentration (wholesale vs DTC mix, top retailer exposure)
- L Catterton ownership stake and any lock-up/overhang from remaining PE holders
- FX exposure given EUR cost base vs global revenue
- Capacity expansion capex trajectory and whether FCF strength persists as growth capex runs
- Any related-party transactions with prior LBO sponsors
The composite fair value sits at $31.57 and the signal-adjusted FV at $35.36, both below the $39.35 print, implying roughly -10% to -20% downside to deserved value. The DCF ($33.60) and anchored PE ($42.58) bracket the price, while the EPV floor at $16.48 flags meaningful downside if growth stalls - a reminder that a chunk of today's cap is embedded growth, not steady-state earnings power. Earnings quality is high (OCF/NI 2.34x), which supports the higher end of the range but does not create a discount.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- FY guidance on revenue growth and Americas/APAC mix - key DCF driver
- Net debt paydown pace and any refinancing terms
- Wholesale vs DTC margin trajectory - underpins the 26% OpM assumption
- Any inventory build or channel stuffing signals that would dent earnings quality
BIRK is riding a fresh, concrete narrative catalyst: management raised FY26 constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 15% after a strong Q3, and the stock jumped 10.2% on the print. That reframes the tape from the prior 'lost year' (shares down 15.3% over the last twelve months) into a re-rating story, and news flow is echoing it with 'looks cheap' DCF-style pieces and a positive read-across from Crocs' three-month surge. For a 1.3-beta consumer-cyclical name, a risk-on tape (VIX 14.3, S&P near highs) is a real amplifier, not background noise.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Absorption of the secondary offering - does the discount close within a week or does supply keep pressing the tape
- Sell-side target revisions and estimate cuts/raises in the days after the guidance raise
- Whether the footwear cohort (CROX, DECK, ONON) holds its bid or rolls over, which would drag BIRK's read-across
- Any signs the DTC growth narrative is broadening or, conversely, that wholesale is softening
The world is bifurcating consumer footwear: undifferentiated mid-tier volume is being squeezed by promo pressure, higher rates and softer discretionary spend, while brands with genuine scarcity, heritage and price authority keep taking full-price share. Birkenstock sits on the winning side of that split — its product is a comfort/orthopedic durable good sold as a fashion item, which softens the fashion-cycle risk that kills pure trend brands. The offsets are structural rather than demand-side: a euro cost base against global revenue, tariff exposure on European manufacture, and an industry-wide shift of margin from brand to distribution. Net: business direction up, but the incremental growth rate is more likely to grind toward the mid-teens than to re-accelerate above 20%.
Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for BIRK — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.