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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

McCormick & Company, Incorporated

MKC NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hunt Valley, MD 21031, United States IPO 1999 mccormickcorporation.com Updated Jun 7, 1:48pm
Price
$47.24
Market Cap
$12.7B
Employees
14,100
Beta
0.64
Avg Volume
4,286,761
CEO
Brendan Foley
Business Description

McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment offers spices, herbs, and seasonings, as well as condiments and sauces, and desserts. This segment markets its products under the McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's Cholula Hot Sauce, Gourmet Garden, Club House, and OLD BAY brands in the Americas; Ducros, Schwartz, Kamis, and Drogheria & Alimentari, and Vahiné brands in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; McCormick and DaQiao brands in China; and McCormick, Aeroplane, and Gourmet Garden brands in Australia, as well as markets regional and ethnic brands, such as Zatarain's, Stubb's, Thai Kitchen, and Simply Asia. It also supplies its products under the private labels. This segment serves retailers comprising grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce retailers directly and indirectly through distributors and wholesale foodservice suppliers. The Flavor Solutions segment offers seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems, and compound flavors to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. It serves foodservice customers directly and indirectly through distributors. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 1:57pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 1:54pm (5d ago)
$47.24
+0.62 (+1.33%)
Day Range
$46.51 – $47.90
52-Week Range
$44.82 – $78.16
50-Day MA
$49.74
200-Day MA
$62.14
Volume
2,968,617.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $51.00
Consensus $70.00
High $85.00
(35 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 268,843,204.00
Float 265,306,788.00
Free Float 98.7%
High free float — 98.7% of shares trade freely, ~1.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:00pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 1:56pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
7.73
Stock Price: $47.24
EPS (Diluted): 2.94
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.11
Stock Price: $47.24
Total Equity: $5.74B
Shares: 269,300,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.00
Market Cap: $12.70B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Cash: $95.90M
EBITDA: $1.34B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$21.7B
Market Cap: $12.70B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Cash: $95.90M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
37.9%
Gross Profit: $2.59B
Revenue: $6.84B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
16.0%
Operating Income: $1.09B
Revenue: $6.84B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
11.5%
Net Income: $789.40M
Revenue: $6.84B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
27.3%
Net Income: $789.40M
Total Equity: $5.74B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
6.1%
Operating Income: $1.09B
Tax Rate: 19.9%
Equity: $5.74B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Cash: $95.90M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.70
Current Assets: $2.14B
Current Liabilities: $3.06B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.70
Short-Term Debt: $890.50M
Long-Term Debt: $3.11B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Total Equity: $5.74B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$25.40
Revenue: $6.84B
Shares: 269,300,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$21.30
Total Equity: $5.74B
Shares: 269,300,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.75
Operating CF: $962.20M
CapEx: -$221.80M
Shares: 269,300,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.7%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $47.24
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $789.40M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 1:56pm
Compares MKC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 1:59:34 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $6.3B $6.4B $6.7B $6.7B $6.8B
Cost of Revenue $3.8B $4.1B $4.2B $4.1B $4.2B
Gross Profit $2.5B $2.3B $2.5B $2.6B $2.6B
Operating Expenses $1.5B $1.4B $1.5B $1.5B $1.5B
Operating Income $1.0B $863.6M $963.0M $1.1B $1.1B
Net Income $755.3M $682.0M $680.6M $788.5M $789.4M
EBITDA $1.2B $1.2B $1.2B $1.3B $1.3B
EPS $2.83 $2.54 $2.54 $2.94 $2.94
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:25pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $351.7M $334.0M $166.6M $186.1M $95.9M
Total Current Assets $2.2B $2.4B $2.0B $2.1B $2.1B
Total Assets $12.9B $13.1B $12.9B $13.1B $13.2B
Current Liabilities $3.2B $3.4B $3.1B $2.9B $3.1B
Long-Term Debt $4.0B $3.6B $3.3B $3.6B $3.1B
Total Liabilities $8.5B $8.4B $7.8B $7.8B $7.4B
Total Equity $4.4B $4.7B $5.1B $5.3B $5.7B
Retained Earnings $2.8B $3.0B $3.2B $3.5B $3.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $828.3M $651.5M $1.2B $921.9M $962.2M
Capital Expenditure -$278.0M -$262.0M -$263.9M -$274.9M -$221.8M
Free Cash Flow $550.3M $389.5M $973.4M $647.0M $740.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$641.0M $95.2M $1.0M $0 -$34.1M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$8.6M -$38.8M -$35.7M -$53.1M -$34.8M
Net Change in Cash -$71.9M -$17.7M -$167.4M $19.5M -$90.2M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 1:55pm (5d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $8.2B
$8.1B – $8.2B
$8.5B
$8.5B – $8.5B
$8.9B
$8.8B – $9.0B
$8.8B
$8.7B – $8.9B
EBITDA $1.5B
$1.5B – $1.6B
$1.6B
$1.6B – $1.6B
$1.7B
$1.7B – $1.7B
$1.7B
$1.7B – $1.7B
Net Income $891.9M
$870.5M – $981.3M
$971.0M
$930.2M – $1.0B
$1.2B
$1.1B – $1.2B
$1.3B
$1.2B – $1.3B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +0.5% +4.9% +0.9% +1.7%
Gross Profit Growth -8.8% +10.0% +3.5% +0.0%
Operating Income Growth -14.9% +11.5% +10.1% +3.0%
Net Income Growth -9.7% -0.2% +15.9% +0.1%
EBITDA Growth -4.6% +3.8% +9.1% +1.8%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 1:59pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-04-28 Sheppard Valarie L J-Other 3.29 $51.81 $170
2026-04-27 PRESTON MARGARET M V J-Other 276.60 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 THOMAS TERRY S J-Other 3.78 $51.81 $196
2026-04-28 Foust Andrew J-Other 51.87 $51.81 $2,687
2026-04-28 Foust Andrew J-Other 3.16 $51.81 $164
2026-04-28 BRAMMAN ANNE L J-Other 24.09 $51.81 $1,248
2026-06-08 Tapiero Jacques A-Award 210.04 $0.00 $0
2026-04-27 Tapiero Jacques J-Other 22.60 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 Piper Sarah A-Award 54.50 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 Foley Brendan M A-Award 53.82 $0.00 $0
2026-04-08 GOMEZ SADES TABATA LORENA 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-01 Hoots Cindy L A-Award 527.00 $47.52 $25,043
2026-06-01 Hoots Cindy L 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-18 Foley Brendan M A-Award 53.68 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Foley Brendan M J-Other 5.00 $51.34 $257
2026-05-18 Piper Sarah A-Award 54.36 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Piper Sarah J-Other 20.90 $51.81 $1,083
2026-05-04 Piper Sarah A-Award 52.86 $0.00 $0
2026-04-27 Piper Sarah J-Other 41.81 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Foley Brendan M J-Other 288.00 $51.40 $14,803
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:25pm (9d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-04-20 $0.48 2026-04-08 2026-04-20 2026-04-27
2025-12-29 $0.48 2025-11-18 2025-12-29 2026-01-12
2025-10-14 $0.45 2025-09-30 2025-10-14 2025-10-27
2025-07-07 $0.45 2025-06-24 2025-07-07 2025-07-21
2025-04-07 $0.45 2025-03-26 2025-04-07 2025-04-21
2024-12-30 $0.45 2024-11-19 2024-12-30 2025-01-13
2024-10-07 $0.42 2024-09-24 2024-10-07 2024-10-21
2024-07-08 $0.42 2024-06-25 2024-07-08 2024-07-22
2024-04-05 $0.42 2024-03-27 2024-04-08 2024-04-22
2023-12-28 $0.42 2023-11-28 2023-12-29 2024-01-08
2023-10-06 $0.39 2023-09-28 2023-10-10 2023-10-24
2023-07-07 $0.39 2023-06-27 2023-07-10 2023-07-24
2023-04-06 $0.39 2023-03-29 2023-04-10 2023-04-24
2022-12-29 $0.39 2022-11-29 2022-12-30 2023-01-09
2022-10-07 $0.37 2022-09-29 2022-10-11 2022-10-25
2022-07-08 $0.37 2022-06-28 2022-07-11 2022-07-25
2022-04-08 $0.37 2022-03-30 2022-04-11 2022-04-25
2021-12-30 $0.37 2021-11-30 2021-12-31 2022-01-10
2021-10-08 $0.34 2021-09-28 2021-10-12 2021-10-26
2021-07-09 $0.34 2021-06-29 2021-07-12 2021-07-26
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for MKC.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 14:00:10
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued near $48-52 on normalized earnings; the 7.7 P/E is a one-time-gain artifact, real multiple is ~16x — hold for the 2.7% yield, don't add until FCF stabilizes or price breaks $42.

The Q1 FY26 print (Feb 2026) showing $1.02B net income on $1.87B revenue — a 54.2% net margin — is almost certainly a one-time gain (likely a divestiture, tax benefit, or pension/legal settlement), not operating performance. Strip that out and the trailing four quarters look like ~$6.94B revenue with normalized NI closer to $830M, not the inflated TTM the 7.7x P/E implies. Real P/E on operating earnings is ~15-16x, which is roughly in line with where staples like CAG and CPB trade and a discount to KHC peers — not the screaming bargain the headline ratio suggests. The synthesis model's $50.32 fair value (6.5% upside) is probably the most honest number on this page; the 7.7 P/E is a data artifact and anyone anchoring to it is being misled.

The underlying trajectory is genuinely mediocre but not broken. Revenue grew 1.3% CAGR over five years, FY25 revenue of $6.84B was up just 1.8% YoY, and the quarterly sequence shows organic acceleration is modest at best — Q4 FY25 ($1.85B) was actually flat versus Q4 FY24 ($1.80B), about 2.8% growth, hardly the "accelerating" trend the revenue confidence signal claims. Gross margin held at 37.9% and operating margin at ~16%, which validates the pricing-power thesis but also caps the upside: there's no margin expansion story left when you're already a category leader running mature unit economics. The FCF deterioration flagged by Market Forces (-12.8% CAGR) is real and matters — FY25 FCF of $740M against a $12.7B market cap is a ~5.8% yield, decent but not cheap given the 2.7% dividend already consumes a chunk and growth capex is climbing.

The Market Forces "managed decline / value trap" verdict overshoots. McCormick isn't losing share catastrophically; volumes are soft industry-wide as consumers digest 2022-2024 price hikes, and spices/flavorings have structurally lower private-label penetration than center-store categories. But the Narrative layer is closer to right — this is a boring compounder priced approximately fairly, with no catalyst. The contrarian case worth taking seriously is on the balance sheet: total debt is blank in the tile but McCormick carries ~$3.5B+ from the RB Foods/Frank's deal, and a 0.70 current ratio with only $96M cash means refinancing risk if rates stay elevated. That's the real bear case, not "managed decline." The "Significant Insider Buying" signal is noise — those are 50-share director award grants, not conviction purchases. Whoever tagged that should recalibrate.

I dissent mildly from the "slight upside" synthesis — not on direction, but on conviction. Fair value is probably $48-52 on normalized earnings of ~$2.95-3.05/share at a 16-17x multiple appropriate for a 2% grower with durable brands and refinancing overhang. At $47.24 you're getting maybe 5-8% upside plus a 2.7% dividend — a 8-11% total return profile that's fine for a defensive sleeve but not compelling against a 4%+ risk-free rate. The pre-flight model's framing of this as a "40% decline from highs" repricing is correct directionally but the stock isn't done de-rating if FCF keeps slipping and the debt stack needs refinancing into 2026-2027. I'd want $42 or a clear FCF inflection before sizing up. The Q1 FY26 anomaly needs to be reconciled before anyone trades off that 54% margin — that's the single biggest unresolved item in this file and none of the prior models flagged it.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 14:00:17
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus — McCormick is fairly valued at $48-52 on normalized earnings, but I see the refinancing risk as slightly mitigated by robust cash flows. I'd consider adding at $42 or with clear FCF improvement.

In reviewing McCormick & Company, several key aspects from the raw data stand out. The February 2026 quarter shows a remarkable net income of $1.02 billion on $1.87 billion revenue, resulting in a 54.2% net margin. This is an anomaly in contrast to the historical data where net margins hovered around 10-13%. Such a spike suggests a non-recurring event, likely a divestiture or tax benefit, which inflates the trailing P/E to an unsustainable 7.7x. Meanwhile, the company's revenue growth remains tepid with a 1.3% CAGR over five years, reflecting a slow but steady growth typical of mature consumer staples firms. The balance sheet reveals a concerningly low cash position of $95.9 million, juxtaposed with significant debt levels, heightening refinancing risks in a rising interest rate environment.

I agree with Opus's assertion that the Q1 FY26 net income figure is an anomaly distorting the financial metrics. The real P/E aligns more closely with 15-16x once normalized earnings are considered, which is consistent with industry peers. The current valuation, therefore, is not the bargain it superficially appears to be. Furthermore, I concur with Opus's view that McCormick operates as a "boring compounder," priced adequately given its defensive nature and consistent, albeit slow, revenue growth. The market's narrative of McCormick as a steady, if unexciting, staple is justified by its predictable cash flow and stable margins.

However, I diverge from Opus in downplaying the "Significant Insider Buying" signal. While Opus dismisses it as noise, the presence of insider activity, regardless of size, can sometimes indicate confidence in the company's future prospects, especially in a mature firm like McCormick. Additionally, while Opus identifies refinancing risk as a critical bear case, I believe the company's strong operating cash flow of $962.2 million provides some cushion against potential debt challenges, assuming stable operating conditions.

A skeptic might argue that both analyses overestimate McCormick's ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds without impact. The consistent margin maintenance could be challenged by increasing pressure from private-label competitors and shifts in consumer preferences toward fresh and unbranded products. Additionally, the potential for further interest rate hikes could exacerbate refinancing pressures beyond current projections.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 14:35:13
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Quality is real (+21) but the price only gives me ~6% to fair (-13 value) — it's a watchlist name, not a buy here.
The cruxWhether I can get MKC into the low $40s, where the quality franchise meets a real margin of safety against the leveraged balance sheet.
Company Quality
+21
Strong
edge √Σ 131 · risk √Σ 110 · conf 8/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-13
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 56 · conf 5/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a clean, consistent story: this is a Strong-quality (+21) branded staples franchise trading at a Modestly Cheap (-13) price — meaning the market already knows it's good. Margins have rebuilt, earnings quality is pristine (OCF/NI 1.25x, clean accruals), and dilution isn't a problem. But 2% revenue CAGR, flat net income, and $3.9B of net debt against $96M of cash mean I shouldn't pay a premium multiple, and at $47 with deserved value around $50 and an EPV floor near $39, I'm not being paid enough to take the leverage risk. The anchored-PE bull number ($64) is doing too much work in the FV stack — I discount it heavily.

My play: starter position only if I must own it, but honestly I'd rather sit on hands and let the tape come to me. I want MKC sub-$42 (the value lens's attractive-below) before I'd call it a real pitch — that's roughly 11% lower and would give me a ~20% gap to deserved value, which actually compensates for the balance sheet. Below $42 I scale in 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 down to ~$38 (the EPV floor) and build to a full 3-4% staples sleeve position. Between $42 and $48, I'm flat or holding a tracking 50bps. Above $50 it's a pass — the bull case is in the price and there's no growth to bail me out. Catalysts that flip me aggressive: a guide-down selloff, a credit-spread-driven multiple compression, or a private-label scare that overshoots. Catalyst that flips me out entirely: any sign they lever up further for M&A without a clear synergy story.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+21 Strong edge √Σ 131 · risk √Σ 110 · conf 8/10

Revenue grew from $6.32B (2021) to $6.84B (2025) — a 2.0% CAGR, which is real but unspectacular even for a defensive staple. Operating margin compressed from 16.1% (2021) to a 13.6% trough in 2022 under input-cost pressure, then recovered to 16.0% in 2025, showing pricing power eventually flowed through. Net income ($789M) is essentially flat to 2021 ($755M), so per-share earnings growth has come almost entirely from operating recovery rather than expansion. FCF of $740M on $6.84B revenue (~10.8% conversion) is healthy, and OCF/NI of 1.25x with negative accruals (-1.4% of assets) and a Beneish M of -2.46 indicate the reported earnings are backed by cash, not accounting stretch.

The balance sheet is the main caveat: net debt of ~$3.9B against $96M of liquid cash, with $890M of short-term debt exceeding that cash. Altman Z of 2.14 sits in the grey zone — not distress, but no fortress either. FCF of $740M comfortably services this, so survival is not in question, but financial flexibility is constrained. Dilution is a non-issue (diluted share count -0.1% CAGR, SBC just 0.7% of revenue), though buybacks at only 60% of SBC means capital return is being absorbed by debt service and dividends rather than shrinking the float.

The insider tape shows mostly routine A-Awards and J-Other administrative entries; the single $25K 'buy' by Hoots is small and looks tied to an award. I would not characterize this as meaningful insider conviction either way — it's normal compensation activity at a mature staples company.

Strengths 4
m75
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.25x, accruals -1.4% of assets, Beneish M -2.46 — reported $789M net income is backed by $740M FCF, no manipulation signals.
m70
Margin recovery demonstrates pricing power
Operating margin rebuilt from 13.6% (2022 trough) to 16.0% (2025), and gross margin from 35.8% to 37.9%, consistent with a branded flavor franchise that can re-price through input cycles.
m60
Consistent FCF generation
FCF averaged ~$660M/yr over five years and hit $740M in 2025 — durable cash conversion typical of an asset-light branded staple.
m55
No dilution drag
Diluted shares essentially flat at 269M (-0.1% CAGR), SBC only 0.7% of revenue — per-share value is protected on the float side.
Concerns 5
m70
Leveraged balance sheet
Net debt of $3.9B vs $96M liquid cash; Altman Z 2.14 (grey zone). Serviceable on $740M FCF but leaves little room for shocks or major M&A.
m50
Near-term refinancing exposure
$890M short-term debt vs $96M cash — must roll, which makes the company sensitive to credit market conditions.
m55
Sluggish top-line growth
Revenue CAGR 2.0% (2021→2025) and net income essentially flat vs 2021 — this is a low-growth compounder; quality depends on margin defense, not expansion.
m35
Buybacks only mop up SBC
Repurchases recover 60% of SBC — capital return is dividends + deleveraging, not float shrinkage.
m20
Insider 'buying' is overstated by classifier
Tape is dominated by A-Awards and J-Other entries; the lone $25K Hoots transaction is small. Not the conviction signal the summary implies.
This is a high-integrity, durable consumer staple business — the numbers reconcile, the brand pricing power is evident in the margin rebuild, and dilution isn't eating shareholders. But it's not a fortress: $3.9B of net debt against $96M of cash makes the balance sheet a constraint, and the 2% revenue CAGR with flat net income tells me the business is mature and defending rather than compounding. I'd call it a solidly strong franchise with a leveraged capital structure — the kind of company that survives any environment but won't surprise to the upside operationally.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Maturity schedule and rates on the $3.9B gross debt, particularly the $890M short-term portion
  • Volume vs price decomposition of the 2025 revenue growth — is volume actually growing or is it all pricing?
  • Consumer segment vs Flavor Solutions segment trends — which is driving the margin recovery
  • Goodwill/intangibles on the balance sheet (legacy of FONA/Cholula/Frank's deals) and any impairment risk
  • Customer concentration in Flavor Solutions (large CPG/QSR buyers)
  • Whether the Hoots $25K transaction is an open-market buy or award-related
-13 Modestly Cheap edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 56 · conf 5/10
Price $47.24 vs deserved ~$50, ~6% margin — modest discount, not a fat pitch. attractive below $42.00

The composite fair value of $51.40 and signal-adjusted FV of $50.32 against a $47.24 price implies a ~7% gap — real but not a fat pitch. The anchored-PE method ($64.12) is the optimistic outlier and assumes MKC re-rates to its historical multiple despite 2% revenue growth and flat net income; I'd discount that input. The EPV floor at $38.67 is more sobering and reflects what the cash flows are worth without growth credit — and given $3.9B of net debt against $96M cash, the equity is more sensitive to that floor than the headline FV suggests.

Netting it out, deserved value sits around $48-$52 for a mature, durable, but leveraged staples name. Earnings quality is high (no haircut needed), and the business quality argues for the upper half of that range, but the balance sheet and lack of growth argue against paying a premium multiple. At $47.24 you're getting a small discount, not a bargain. The bull case (pricing power, category dominance) is largely in the price already; the bear case (private label, fresh-food shift, stretched balance sheet limiting M&A) caps the multiple. This is 'modestly cheap' bordering on fairly valued — not the kind of mispricing that screams.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Trades below composite FV
Price $47.24 vs composite FV $51.40 and signal-adj FV $50.32 — roughly 6-8% upside to fair, a thin but real discount on a high-quality franchise.
m25
High earnings quality means no haircut
Earnings-quality signal is clean (score 2), so the reported numbers feeding the FV math don't need to be marked down — the $50 deserved value stands on its own.
Rich / priced-in 3
m40
Anchored-PE is a runaway input
The $64.12 anchored-PE value assumes a re-rate to historical multiple on a business with 2% revenue CAGR and flat net income — I'd weight it lightly. EPV floor at $38.67 is the more honest downside anchor.
m30
Leverage limits margin of safety
$3.9B net debt vs $96M cash means equity holders bear more downside if growth disappoints; deserved multiple should be lower than a debt-free peer, pulling FV toward the bottom of the $48-$52 range.
m25
Bull case largely priced in
At a ~24x forward P/E equivalent and a defensive narrative the market already accepts, there's no obvious mispricing to exploit — this is a known steady compounder, not an overlooked one.
It's modestly cheap, not compellingly cheap. At $47 I'm getting maybe 6-8% to a deserved value around $50, which is fine but not the kind of gap I'd size up on. The anchored-PE FV is doing too much work — strip that out and the EPV floor near $39 reminds me the leverage matters. I'd want this in the low $40s before I'd call it a real opportunity; here, it's a hold-quality price for a hold-quality setup.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward guidance on organic volume growth — is the 2% revenue CAGR accelerating or decelerating?
  • Deleveraging pace and any commentary on resumed M&A capacity
  • Gross margin trajectory — is the pricing-led margin rebuild sustaining or rolling over as commodity tailwinds fade?
  • Private-label share gains in core US spice category
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16