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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Watch · Gem Score +19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 15 · Value 21 · Sentiment 19 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
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Suncor Energy Inc.
SU NYSESuncor Energy Inc. is a Canadian integrated energy company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. The company’s primary function is to develop, produce, refine, and market energy products across the full oil and gas value chain. Suncor’s operations are organized into key segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing. In the Oil Sands business, it focuses on mining and in situ extraction of bitumen in the Athabasca region, upgrading it into synthetic crude and related products for downstream use. The Exploration and Production segment manages offshore crude oil and natural gas assets, particularly off Canada’s East Coast, as well as associated marketing and risk management activities. Through its Refining and Marketing segment, Suncor refines crude oil in Canada and the United States and distributes fuels, lubricants, and petrochemical products via wholesale channels and its Petro-Canada branded retail network. Founded in 1917 and based in Calgary, Suncor today plays a significant role in North American energy supply, serving industrial, commercial, and consumer markets in Canada, the United States, and internationally.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
Suncor Energy Inc. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.
This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 9 annual reports, the latest filed 2026-02-26, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.48
Total Equity: $32.39B
Shares: 1,220,000,000
Total Debt: $7.17B
Cash: $2.62B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $7.17B
Cash: $2.62B
Revenue: $37.60B
Revenue: $37.60B
Revenue: $37.60B
Total Equity: $32.39B
Tax Rate: 25.5%
Equity: $32.39B
Total Debt: $7.17B
Cash: $2.62B
Current Liabilities: $7.33B
Long-Term Debt: $6.47B
Total Debt: $7.17B
Total Equity: $32.39B
Shares: 1,220,000,000
Shares: 1,220,000,000
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 1,220,000,000
Stock Price: $63.47
Net Income: $4.25B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:29pm (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.1B | $42.0B | $37.5B | $39.4B | $37.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $3.0B | $6.5B | $6.0B | $4.3B | $4.2B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $1.99 | $4.69 | $4.55 | $3.39 | $3.48 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.99 | $4.69 | $4.54 | $3.39 | $3.48 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:29pm (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| Total Current Assets | $7.9B | $10.4B | $9.9B | $10.3B | $10.2B |
| Total Assets | $60.1B | $60.7B | $63.6B | $64.5B | $64.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.5B | $9.2B | $6.9B | $7.7B | $7.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | $10.0B | $7.0B | $8.0B | $6.7B | $6.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $33.8B | $32.5B | $32.5B | $32.5B | $32.2B |
| Total Equity | $26.3B | $28.3B | $31.1B | $32.0B | $32.4B |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:29pm (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| Capital Expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | -$1.7B | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$738.0M | -$3.7B | $1.1B | -$1.1B | -$2.9M |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.1B | -$1.9B | -$2.0B | -$2.0B | -$2.0B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $231.9M | -$241.9M | -$112.7M | $1.2B | $208.9M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:29pm (57d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +49.5% | -10.7% | +5.1% | -4.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income Growth | +120.4% | -8.6% | -27.5% | -1.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:29pm (57d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-04 | $0.44 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-04 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-03 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-04 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-04 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-01 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-02 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-02 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-01 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-01 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-02 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-03 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-02 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-02 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2021-06-03 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2021-03-03 | $0.16 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Starting from the raw numbers: Suncor's revenue has round-tripped — $28.1B (2021) → $42.0B (2022) → $37.5B (2023) → $39.4B (2024) → $37.6B (2025), so the "0.2% CAGR" is really "we peaked with WTI at $95 and have been fading since." Net income tells the same story more clearly: $6.52B → $5.95B → $4.32B → $4.25B, a ~35% decline in earnings from the 2022 cycle top with revenue only down 10%. That is negative operating leverage — costs are sticky as realizations soften. At $63.47 and 18.2x trailing P/E on $4.25B NI, the market is capitalizing depressed-but-not-trough earnings at a premium multiple. Balance sheet is genuinely fine: $7.17B debt vs $32.4B equity (D/E 0.22), current ratio 1.39, ROE 13.1%. This is not a distressed name; it's a mature cyclical being asked to prove it can defend $4B+ NI through a softer oil tape.
Where the prior models diverge is instructive. The Valuation Synthesis says composite FV $75-85 (+19% upside); Market Forces calls it a value trap with a projected 41% earnings decline through 2027; the Narrative layer splits the difference at "16% discount is rational skepticism, not mispricing." These cannot all be right. My read: the synthesis DCF is almost certainly using a terminal margin/growth assumption that ignores the earnings trajectory in the data — you cannot get to $85 FV when trailing earnings are declining 15.5% CAGR and 2025 NI already annualizes below the 5-year average. Market Forces' -41% earnings path through 2027 is aggressive but directionally aligned with what the actuals show. The classification as "mature earner" is right; the pre-flight's claim of an 18x P/E premium vs 12-14x sector is the actual crux — SU trades rich for what integrated Canadian oil sands should command given carbon-tax exposure, TMX-dependent egress, and structurally high sustaining capex.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: cash flow is missing from this file (OCF/FCF/capex all blank), which matters enormously for an integrated with $2B+ of buybacks and a 2.65% dividend at a 47% payout. If Suncor is generating $5-6B FCF against a $73B market cap, that's a 7-8% FCF yield and the "value trap" call is wrong — you get paid ~10% total shareholder return (div + buyback) to wait, and any oil beta is a call option. The bull case is entirely mechanical, as the narrative engine correctly notes, but mechanical is fine if the mechanics work. The problem: I can't verify the FCF from this file, and the earnings trajectory suggests OCF is likely also compressing. At $63 with WTI around $70-75, you're not buying trough — you're buying mid-cycle with downside if crude drops to $60. Insider activity isn't shown, which is a real gap for a name like this.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that Suncor is being valued more like a stable compounder than the earnings record justifies. At $63.47, the stock carries a $73.4B market cap against 2025 net income of $4.25B, 2024 net income of $4.32B, and 2023 net income of $5.95B. That is not a business showing durable earnings expansion; it is a business whose profits peaked with the commodity cycle and have since stepped down by roughly 35% from 2022’s $6.52B. Revenue tells the same story: $41.97B in 2022, then $37.48B, $39.40B, and $37.60B. In other words, this is a flat-to-down top line over four years with declining earnings power, yet the stock trades at 18.2x earnings, 2.06x sales, and 2.39x book. For an integrated oil name with clear commodity exposure and no visible structural growth engine in the provided data, that multiple set looks full.
The balance sheet is the part of the story that deserves respect. Total debt of $7.17B against $32.39B of equity gives debt/equity of just 0.22, and net debt is only about $4.55B after $2.62B of cash. That is conservative for the sector and helps explain why the market is not assigning a distressed or “melting ice cube” valuation. Return metrics are decent rather than great: 13.1% ROE and 6.6% ROA are healthy, but not remotely high enough to warrant paying a premium multiple for a no-growth cyclical. The dividend yield of 2.65% is also lower than many investors would instinctively expect from a large-cap oil name, and the 47.5% payout ratio suggests the company is not meaningfully under-earning the dividend but also not providing an especially generous cash yield to compensate for commodity risk. If I strip away the comfort of the balance sheet, I’m left with a business earning about an 11.3% net margin on stagnant revenue and being priced as if those earnings are unusually dependable.
That is why I don’t buy the more optimistic fair value outputs at face value. A model can mechanically produce upside when anchored to normalized commodity cash flow or reserve-life assumptions, but the observable data here show normalization already happened and it was downward. The stock’s current P/E effectively asks investors to look through cyclical softness and trust that mid-cycle earnings quality is better than the 2024-2025 run rate implies. Maybe that is true, but then I would want stronger evidence in margins, cash flow, or capital returns than this briefing provides. Without operating cash flow or free cash flow detail, I am reluctant to underwrite a “cash machine” thesis on reputation alone. On the numbers I do have, Suncor looks like a financially solid, operationally mature producer/refiner whose valuation leaves too little room for oil-price volatility, refining margin mean reversion, or another year of merely $4B-$4.5B earnings.
The best counterargument is straightforward and serious: this company is not a plain upstream producer, and the market may be correctly paying up for resilience. The integrated model can mute commodity swings, the low leverage sharply reduces existential risk, and a 50-plus-year oil sands reserve base can justify a higher multiple than short-life conventional barrels. If 2025 earnings of $4.25B are closer to trough-than-midcycle, then 18x is a misleadingly high denominator and the stock could in fact be inexpensive on normalized power. A bull would also note that revenue in 2025 was only 4.6% below 2024 despite a softer backdrop, and net income was down just 1.6%, which argues the business is holding up better than the multi-year peak-to-current comparison suggests. I weigh those points less heavily because even giving credit for stability, this is still a business with essentially zero revenue CAGR and sharply negative earnings CAGR from a now-established earnings base. Stability matters, but at this price the market already knows that.
What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 is a clear trough rather than the new normal. Specifically, I would need to see annual net income recover back above $5.5B without a major balance-sheet stretch, or operating/free cash flow numbers demonstrating that the stock is actually trading at a materially lower cash-flow multiple than the earnings multiple suggests. A dividend yield moving meaningfully higher through either dividend growth or a lower share price would also improve the setup. Conversely, if earnings stay around $4B-$4.5B and revenue remains stuck near $38B-$39B, I think the stock should trade closer to 13x-15x earnings, implying a value band more like $45-$55 rather than the low $60s.
Grok Reading
Suncor’s five-year ledger is a classic late-cycle oil-sands story: revenue peaked at $41.97B in 2022, then settled into a $37–39B band, finishing 2025 at $37.60B—effectively zero growth (0.2% CAGR) and a 4.6% year-over-year decline. Net income tells the sharper story. From a $6.52B high in 2022, earnings have stepped down to $5.95B, $4.32B, and $4.25B, an earnings CAGR of –15.5%. Margins held at a still-respectable 11.3% net, but the absolute profit pool has shrunk by roughly a third while the market continues to assign an 18.2x P/E—well above the 12–14x integrated-energy norm. At $63.47 and a $73.4B enterprise, investors are paying a growth multiple for a no-growth, earnings-compressing franchise. The balance sheet is the cleanest part of the picture: $7.17B of debt against $2.62B cash and $32.4B equity leaves a 0.22 debt-to-equity ratio and a 1.39 current ratio, so solvency is not the issue. Return on equity of 13.1% is adequate, not exceptional, for the capital intensity of mining bitumen. The 2.65% dividend yield on a 47% payout is sustainable but hardly the “4%+ cash machine” the bull narrative advertises; that gap between story and coupon is material.
The quantitative models disagree in a way that matters. The valuation synthesis prints a signal-adjusted fair value of $75.55 (+19%), yet the market-forces layer simultaneously flags a value trap and a projected 41% earnings decline through 2027. Those two outputs cannot both be right. The underlying trajectory—flat top line, falling bottom line, oil-sands cost structure, and a multiple already at a sector premium—supports the headwind case far more than the upside composite. Paying 18x for a business whose recent earnings run-rate is deteriorating and whose free-cash-flow line is blank in the briefing is not a bargain; it is a bet that either oil prices re-accelerate hard or that the market will keep granting Suncor a longevity premium for 50-year reserves that the energy-transition discount is already trying to claw back. Price-to-book of 2.39x and EV/revenue of 2.07x are not distressed levels; they are mid-cycle or richer, inconsistent with a deep-value entry.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward: Suncor is an integrated producer with downstream margin ballast, multi-decade reserve life, fortress leverage, and a history of returning cash when crude cooperates. A smart opponent would note that $4.25B of net income on a sub-$5B net-debt position still throws off equity value, that the 16% DCF discount already embeds transition risk, and that Canadian pension and dividend buyers will keep a floor under the stock as long as the payout is covered. They would also argue that oil-sands fixed costs create operating leverage to any sustained move above mid-cycle crude, quickly expanding the $4.25B base. That case is coherent—but it requires either stable-to-rising hydrocarbon prices or multiple expansion from an already elevated 18x starting point. Given the observed earnings compression and near-zero revenue CAGR, I weight the mechanical deterioration more heavily than the optionality on crude.
What would flip the view is concrete: two consecutive quarters of revenue re-acceleration above 5% with net margins holding above 12%, a sustained free-cash-flow print that supports a dividend yield reset toward 4% without raising the payout ratio above 60%, or a clear multi-year production-growth or cost-deflation program that breaks the –15% earnings trend. Absent those, the premium multiple on declining earnings looks like the wrong side of the trade.
Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
The number that should make you uncomfortable is the 18.2x P/E sitting on top of a -15.5% earnings CAGR. Suncor's net income has walked down from $6.52B in 2022 to $5.95B in 2023 to $4.32B in 2024 to $4.25B in 2025 — a 35% erosion over three years, and the 2025 print is essentially flat year-over-year at -1.6%, which tells you the decline has plateaued but has not reversed. Revenue is a ghost: $37.60B in 2025 versus $41.97B in 2022, a 10% contraction, with a 0.2% CAGR that is functionally zero. You are paying 18x for a company whose top line is flat and whose bottom line is shrinking. The Market Forces model calls this a "value trap" and projects a 41% earnings decline through 2027, which would push forward P/E toward 29x on roughly $2.5B of net income. Even if you think that projection is too bearish, the direction of travel is unambiguous, and the valuation does not discount it.
What I will grant the bulls, and what the prior models underweight, is the balance sheet. $7.17B in total debt against $32.39B in equity, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22, a current ratio of 1.39, and net debt of only ~$4.55B. This is not a company that will be forced into distress selling or dilutive capital raises if WTI slides to $55. The 47.5% payout ratio means the $1.68B dividend is covered even if earnings compress another 30%, and the 2.65% yield, while below the 4-6% typical of Canadian energy, is a floor, not a ceiling. The integrated model — oil sands upstream, midstream infrastructure, downstream refining — provides a natural hedge that pure upstream producers don't have, and the 50+ year reserve life means this is not a depleting-asset countdown. At 2.39x book with a 13.1% ROE, you are not paying a fantasy multiple for a real asset.
Where I part ways with the Valuation Synthesis model's $75.55 signal-adjusted fair value is that it appears to be anchoring on a recovery that the data does not yet support. The composite of $85.37 is built on methods that "disagree" per the model's own admission, and the 19.3% upside assumes earnings mean-revert toward the 2022-2023 range. But the 2022-2023 earnings were a function of WTI at $95-100, and Suncor's oil sands have a cash cost of roughly $40-50/bbl, meaning their margin sensitivity to the $70-75 price range we've seen in 2024-2025 is structurally tighter than conventional producers. The "operational improvement story post-2020" that the Pre-Flight Intelligence layer cites as a premium driver is real but incremental; it does not close a 35% earnings gap. The narrative layer correctly identifies this as a "cyclical-late-stage" name with "fragile" durability and "minimal" intensity — the market is not in a Suncor bull run, and the 16% DCF discount reflects sober skepticism, not panic.
The strongest case against my own read is this: I may be overweighting the earnings decline as structural when it is largely cyclical. The 2022 peak of $6.52B was an outlier driven by a once-in-a-decade oil price spike, and $4.25B at $70-75 WTI is arguably Suncor's "normal" earnings. If you normalize to that, the 18x P/E is closer to 17x on a cyclical trough, which for an integrated major with a fortress balance sheet and 50-year reserve life is defensible. The ROE of 13.1% is above the cost of equity, the ROA of 6.58% is positive and stable, and the 11.3% net margin, while down from the 2022 peak of ~15.5%, is still healthy. A smart opponent would argue I'm anchoring on the wrong base year and that the "decline" is really a reversion from an unsustainable spike. I weigh this differently because the 2023-2025 trajectory ($5.95B → $4.32B → $4.25B) shows the reversion is not a V-shape bounce but a grinding step-down, and the 0.2% revenue CAGR tells me the top line is not growing into the margin recovery.
What would flip me: a quarterly print showing net income above $1.3B annualized (i.e., back above the $5.2B run-rate) on WTI below $80, which would signal genuine cost-out progress rather than price tailwind. Conversely, a Q1 2026 earnings release showing annualized net income below $3.5B would confirm the Market Forces "value trap" thesis and make the 18x P/E indefensible. A sustained WTI above $85 for two consecutive quarters would validate the premium and push me toward "undervalued." A surprise in capex discipline — say, a 20% reduction in maintenance capex without production loss — would be the single most important data point, because it would prove the operational improvement narrative is real and not just a slide-deck promise.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Suncor is a mature integrated energy business generating stable profitability across a full commodity cycle: revenue ran $28.1B (2021) to $42.0B (2022) then settled around $37-39B in 2023-2025, with net income of $2.96B, $6.52B, $5.95B, $4.32B, $4.25B respectively. Even in softer 2024-2025 conditions the company still cleared $4B+ of net income annually, which for a heavy-capex oil sands operator is meaningful evidence of through-cycle earnings power. Altman Z at 2.01 sits in the grey zone, consistent with a capital-intensive integrated producer rather than a distress signal, and no mechanical earnings-quality flags were tripped.
Verify before trusting this (7)
- Actual FCF and capex intensity - feed shows $0 FCF which is clearly a data gap
- Gross and operating margin trends (feed shows 0) to gauge refining vs upstream mix and cost per barrel
- Total debt maturity ladder and weighted cost of debt given -$4.55B net cash
- Proved reserve life and sustaining capex needed to hold production flat
- Dividend policy alongside buybacks - total capital returned vs FCF
- Any material asset impairments, decommissioning liabilities, or safety/operational incident charges
- Insider transaction pattern (not provided in feed)
The composite fair value of $85.37 and the signal-adjusted $75.55 both sit above the $63.28 price, implying 19-35% upside on the model. I lean on the signal-adjusted number because the anchored-PE method is doing all the work in the composite, and applying it to a late-cycle commodity earner risks capitalizing peak-ish earnings. Even the more conservative $75-ish anchor still leaves a mid-teens discount, which is a real margin of safety for a Solid-quality integrated with a 4%+ yield and aggressive buybacks shrinking the float ~18% over four years. What's priced in at $63 is roughly mid-cycle crude with a modest transition-risk haircut - the market is not extrapolating today's cash flows forever, and it shouldn't. The bear case (stranded-asset melting ice cube) is partly embedded in the multiple; the bull case (structurally tight oil, sustained buybacks) is not. Earnings quality is only Adequate/Mixed, which argues against pushing deserved value toward the $85 composite. Net: modestly cheap, not a screaming discount.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Sustained free cash flow at $70-75 WTI to confirm the mid-cycle earnings power the FV rests on
- Buyback pace in the next two quarters - is management still retiring stock aggressively at $63?
- Net debt trajectory and any capex creep on oil sands sustaining capital
- Any one-off gains or non-cash items inflating the anchored earnings number
The immediate non-fundamental pressure on SU is positive: a Q2 beat, record cash generation, and a bumped C$500M/month buyback are the freshest headlines, and they land in a risk-on tape (regime +47, VIX 15.5) that is friendly to cyclical cash-returners. With a low 0.57 beta, SU is not going to be whipped around by macro anyway, so the market's calm mood matters less than the fact that the company itself is feeding the bull narrative right now.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether oil prices hold; a crude selloff would flip the near-term tape immediately
- Any acceleration in energy-transition headlines (policy, EV data) that could re-intensify the stranded-asset narrative
- Analyst target revisions post-Q2 - upward revisions would confirm the tailwind
- Follow-through on buyback execution pace in coming monthly updates
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for SU — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.