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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Nucor Corporation (NUE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -32 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 38 · Value -79 · Sentiment -47 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $66.28 vs $271.95 at analysis
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Nucor Corporation
NUE NYSENucor Corporation is a steel and materials company that manufactures steel products and ferrous and non-ferrous materials. Its operations are organized around three core segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. Nucor’s steel mills produce sheet, plate, structural, and bar steel used across construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, and industrial applications. Its steel products segment offers items such as joists, decking, concrete reinforcing, fasteners, metal building systems, grating, tubular products, piling, and wire mesh. The raw materials segment supports production through direct reduced iron and recycled metal inputs. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina and founded in 1905, Nucor is a major diversified producer in the North American steel market, with a business model centered on broad product coverage and integrated materials supply.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.52
Total Equity: $22.12B
Shares: 231,000,000
Total Debt: $66.00M
Cash: $2.26B
EBITDA: $3.89B
Total Debt: $66.00M
Cash: $2.26B
Revenue: $32.49B
Revenue: $32.49B
Revenue: $32.49B
Total Equity: $22.12B
Tax Rate: 20.6%
Equity: $22.12B
Total Debt: $66.00M
Cash: $2.26B
Current Liabilities: $4.00B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $66.00M
Total Equity: $22.12B
Shares: 231,000,000
Shares: 231,000,000
CapEx: -$3.42B
Shares: 231,000,000
Stock Price: $272.37
Net Income: $1.74B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:52am (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.5B | $41.5B | $34.7B | $30.7B | $32.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $25.5B | $29.0B | $26.9B | $26.6B | $28.6B |
| Gross Profit | $11.0B | $12.5B | $7.8B | $4.1B | $3.9B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.7B | $2.0B | $1.6B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Operating Income | $9.3B | $10.5B | $6.2B | $3.0B | $2.7B |
| Net Income | $6.8B | $7.6B | $4.5B | $2.0B | $1.7B |
| EBITDA | $10.1B | $11.3B | $7.2B | $4.1B | $3.9B |
| EPS | $23.23 | $28.88 | $18.05 | $8.47 | $7.53 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $23.16 | $28.79 | $18.00 | $8.46 | $7.52 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:37pm (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.4B | $4.3B | $6.4B | $3.6B | $2.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $12.8B | $14.7B | $16.4B | $12.5B | $11.8B |
| Total Assets | $25.8B | $32.5B | $35.3B | $33.9B | $35.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $5.2B | $4.3B | $4.6B | $5.0B | $4.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $11.2B | $12.9B | $13.2B | $12.5B | $13.0B |
| Total Equity | $14.6B | $19.6B | $22.1B | $21.4B | $22.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $17.7B | $24.8B | $28.8B | $30.3B | $31.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:52am (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $6.2B | $10.1B | $7.1B | $4.0B | $3.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.6B | -$1.9B | -$2.2B | -$3.2B | -$3.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.6B | $8.1B | $4.9B | $806.0M | -$188.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.4B | -$3.6B | -$70.8M | -$758.0M | -$2.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $197.0M | $980.9M | -$10.0M | -$10.0M | $202.0M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$3.3B | -$2.8B | -$1.6B | -$2.2B | -$700.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$246.3M | $1.9B | $2.0B | -$2.8B | -$1.3B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:52am (57d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +13.8% | -16.4% | -11.5% | +5.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +13.4% | -37.5% | -47.5% | -5.5% |
| Operating Income Growth | +12.7% | -40.7% | -52.2% | -10.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +11.4% | -40.5% | -55.2% | -14.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +12.7% | -36.8% | -43.1% | -4.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:37pm (57d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-30 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-29 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-29 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-29 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-06 02:03A +1σ run of quarters pays -52%; a −1σ run costs 80%. Ratio -0.7:1 (μ 8.1%, σ 14.8% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.4 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($271.95) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +14% | 17.3% | $201.22 | -26% |
| Base — stabilizes | +9% | 15.0% | $153.75 | -43% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +5% | 12.8% | $115.16 | -58% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +9% | 8.0% | $87.12 | -68% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +23% | 8.0% | $130.51 | -52% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -7% | 8.0% | $54.53 | -80% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: Nucor's TTM revenue is roughly $34.2B (summing the last four quarters ending Apr 2026: $9.50 + $7.69 + $8.52 + $8.46B), with TTM net income around $2.33B — a meaningful step up from the $1.74B FY2025 print. The most recent quarter (Apr 2026) shows $9.50B revenue and $743M NI at 7.8% margin, the strongest print since mid-2024 and a clear acceleration off the $7.83B/$156M trough in Q1 2025. Annualizing the latest quarter gets you ~$38B revenue and ~$3B earnings — a P/E of ~21x on run-rate, not 36x on stale TTM. That's a materially different picture than the synthesis is painting.
That said, the peak-to-trough context is brutal and the synthesis models are directionally right to be cautious. 2022 delivered $7.61B in net income on $41.5B revenue (18.3% net margin) — Nucor is currently running at roughly 30% of peak earnings power. Book value is $22.1B; the stock trades at 2.84x book versus a 10-year average closer to 1.5x. FCF was *negative* $188M in FY2025 despite $3.23B in operating cash flow because capex hit $3.42B — Nucor is mid-investment cycle (West Virginia sheet mill, various downstream). This is not a company you value on trailing FCF; it's one you value on what the expanded asset base earns at mid-cycle, which is precisely what the market is doing.
Where I dissent from the synthesis: the $116 fair value composite is anchored to depressed 2024-2025 numbers and treats a cyclical trough as steady-state. That's the classic error in valuing cyclicals — Peter Lynch's rule that low P/Es on cyclicals are sell signals and high P/Es are buy signals applies here. The Market Forces "400x forward earnings" framing is nonsense; Q1 2026's $743M annualizes to ~$3B, putting forward P/E in the low 20s, not 400x. The Narrative layer's claim that $272 is "+134% narrative premium" ignores that mid-cycle earnings power is probably $4-5B (between 2024's $2B trough and 2022's $7.6B peak), which at 15x gets you $60-75B market cap — right where the stock trades. Where I agree with the bears: 2.84x book is rich for a commodity producer, ROE of 7.9% doesn't justify a premium multiple, and the recovery is fragile — one quarter of margin recovery isn't a trend, and Chinese steel oversupply plus a potential 2026-2027 construction slowdown could easily push margins back down.
The contrarian argument to my own read: capex of $3.4B/year against $3.2B operating cash flow means this company is capital-consuming, not capital-returning, right now. The dividend yield is a paltry 0.82%. If steel prices roll over before the new capacity ramps, you get a 2015-2016 style multi-year drawdown where the stock revisits $110-140. The insider activity (a small sale, no meaningful buying) offers zero support for the bull case. Revenue CAGR of -3.3% over five years and earnings CAGR of -37.9% are ugly whichever way you slice them. The "traditional cyclical" classification is right; the "mature earner" archetype at 0.56 confidence is wrong — Nucor is neither mature-stable nor growing, it's cyclical, and cyclicals should not be valued on TTM multiples in either direction. I partial-dissent from the synthesis: overvalued is too strong given Q1 2026's inflection, but fairly-valued-with-downside-skew is honest. Fair value in a mid-cycle scenario is $220-260; bull case with sustained infrastructure/reshoring demand gets you $300+; bear case with cyclical rollover is $140-170. At $272 you're paying for the bull case with no margin of safety, which is the wrong risk/reward this late in a cycle.
GPT Reading
The market is valuing Nucor like a recovery is not only coming, but coming fast and durably. At $272, the stock is worth about $62.5 billion against 2025 net income of just $1.74 billion, 2025 operating income of $2.66 billion, and 2025 revenue of $32.5 billion. That is 36x trailing earnings, 1.9x sales, 15.5x EV/EBITDA, and 2.8x book for a steel company whose annual revenue is still below 2022’s $41.5 billion and whose earnings have fallen from $7.61 billion in 2022 to $4.52 billion in 2023 to $2.03 billion in 2024 to $1.74 billion in 2025. Even if 2025 was the trough, the burden of proof is high: the last four reported quarters sum to about $2.33 billion of net income, an improvement, but still nowhere near the earnings power needed to justify a low-teens multiple at today’s price. The balance sheet is excellent — only $66 million of debt against $2.26 billion of cash and $22.1 billion of equity — but pristine leverage does not make a cyclical commodity producer worth a growth-stock multiple.
What stands out in the raw data is that the business itself is recovering, just not nearly enough to support the stock. Quarterly revenue rose from $7.08 billion in 4Q24 to $7.83 billion in 1Q25, then $8.46 billion and $8.52 billion, before dipping to $7.69 billion and then rebounding sharply to $9.50 billion in the latest quarter. Net margin similarly climbed from 2.0% in 1Q25 to roughly 7.1%-7.8% in the more recent quarters. That says Nucor is not broken; it is doing what good cyclical operators do when conditions improve. But the annual margin structure still tells a harsher story: gross margin compressed from 30.1% in 2022 to 22.5% in 2023 to 13.3% in 2024 to 11.9% in 2025, while operating margin fell from 25.3% to 18.0% to 9.7% to 8.2%. If I give Nucor credit for a genuine cyclical rebound and assume earnings can normalize materially above 2025, I still do not get comfortable underwriting a valuation that already implies something close to a return toward prior-cycle economics. This is a great steel company, but great steel companies are still steel companies.
The other major issue is cash conversion. Operating cash flow of $3.23 billion in 2025 looks healthy, but capex of $3.42 billion drove free cash flow to negative $188 million. For Nucor, some of that capex is strategic rather than distress-driven, and I do not read it as accounting weakness so much as the real economic cost of staying ahead in a brutally capital-intensive business. Still, shareholders own free cash flow, not adjusted narrative. If Nucor is entering a period where elevated investment is the price of capturing reshoring, infrastructure, and downstream growth, then near-term equity value should reflect that cash is being reinvested rather than distributed. If instead the bull case is that these projects will unleash a step-up in returns, then I need to see it in ROE and earnings, neither of which currently support the valuation: ROE is 7.9%, and net margin is 5.4%, both far too ordinary for a stock trading at nearly 3x book.
The best case against my view is straightforward and serious. Nucor has the strongest balance sheet in the peer set, superior operational flexibility, and a demonstrated ability to earn through cycles better than commodity steel producers typically do. The latest quarter’s $743 million of net income on $9.50 billion of sales was much better than the depressed quarters around it, and annualizing that run rate gets you close to $3.0 billion of earnings. On that basis, the P/E is no longer 36x but more like 21x, and if margins keep rebuilding as utilization rises and newer assets ramp, investors could be looking through a temporary trough toward $4-5 billion of earnings power. In that framework, today’s price is expensive but not absurd, especially if one believes U.S. steel demand is structurally better this cycle because of infrastructure, manufacturing onshoring, and data-center-related construction. I weigh that differently because the historical record of steel argues against paying up for “structural” demand stories before they are proven in multi-year margins and cash flow. Nucor deserves a premium to weaker steelmakers, but not a suspension of cyclicality.
What would change my mind is not another quarter of better pricing alone, but evidence that earnings power is sustainably re-rating. Specifically, if Nucor can produce something like $3.5-4.0 billion of annualized net income for several quarters while free cash flow turns clearly positive after capex, I would revisit the idea that the stock deserves to live above 2x sales and near 3x book. Conversely, if the recent $9.50 billion revenue and 7.8% net margin prove to be a short-lived peak within a still-mediocre cycle, the stock has a lot of room to de-rate. My base case is that fair value belongs much closer to a mid-cycle industrial multiple on normalized earnings, which puts the shares materially below the current quote.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a classic late-cycle steel name that has already rolled over hard and is only now showing the first green shoots of a bounce. Annual net income collapsed from the 2022 peak of $7.61B to $2.03B in 2024 and $1.74B in 2025; operating margin compressed from the mid-20s to 8.2 percent and net margin to 5.4 percent. That is trough-ish profitability, yet the stock still clears $272 and a $62.5B market cap, equating to 36x trailing earnings, 2.84x book, and 15.5x EV/EBITDA. The most recent quarter (rev $9.50B, NI $743M, 7.8 percent margin) is a clear sequential step-up from the $378M / 4.9 percent print that closed 2025, and trailing-twelve-month revenue has stabilized near $32–33B after the multi-year decline from $41.5B. Free cash flow flipped negative (–$188M) solely because capex ran at $3.42B against $3.23B of operating cash flow—management is deliberately spending through the trough. The balance sheet is fortress-grade: $66M of total debt against $2.26B cash and $22.1B of equity, so leverage is not the risk. What stands out is the valuation disconnect: the market is capitalizing roughly $3–3.5B of normalized earnings power at a mid-teens multiple while actual 2025 earnings were half that, and ROE has compressed to 7.9 percent. Paying 2.8x book for high-single-digit returns on equity in a commodity business is the tell.
The quantitative models’ $116–122 fair-value cluster is directionally correct even if the absolute number is harsh; the 36x multiple on trough earnings and the 134 percent premium to fundamental anchors are almost entirely a narrative bet on sustained above-cycle steel pricing from reshoring, infrastructure, and data-center demand. Revenue CAGR of –3.3 percent and earnings CAGR of –38 percent over the recent period confirm the cycle has already turned down; the 5.7 percent recent revenue bounce is real but still leaves the company well below mid-cycle cash generation. Cash-flow quality is poor precisely because earnings are being reinvested rather than returned, which is rational for a capacity-add story but does not justify a growth multiple. Insider activity is noise (small gift and sale). Sector-relative metrics look fine only because the entire steel complex is depressed; absolute returns are not.
The strongest contrary case is straightforward: Nucor is the lowest-cost EAF producer in North America, the balance sheet can fund the entire capex program without stress, and the latest quarter’s $743M profit run-rate annualizes closer to $3B—already a meaningful recovery from the $1.74B trough. If infrastructure and onshoring keep utilization tight and Chinese exports remain constrained, mid-cycle earnings could settle in the $4–5B range rather than mean-reverting all the way back to $2B; at that level the current price embeds only a low-teens multiple, which is not outrageous for the industry leader. The negative FCF is temporary and self-funded; once the new capacity is online, conversion should snap back sharply. A smart bull also notes that 2.8x book has been paid before at cycle peaks and that Nucor’s historical capital discipline has repeatedly protected downside better than peers. I weigh this less heavily because commodity pricing power has never proved permanent, ROIC at 10.6 percent is merely adequate for the capital intensity, and the narrative durability flag is correctly labeled “fragile”—any slip in steel spot prices or delay in project startups collapses the multiple long before the earnings power fully materializes.
I would flip to neutral or modestly constructive on two hard data points: trailing-twelve-month net income sustainably above $3.5B with free-cash-flow conversion back above 60 percent, or a clear multi-quarter demonstration that realized steel margins are holding in the low-double-digits despite any softening in scrap or import pressure. A drop in the share price toward $180–200 while those earnings trends remain intact would also reset the risk-reward enough to reconsider.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Nucor is deep in a cyclical trough. Revenue fell from $41.5B in 2022 to $30.7B in 2024 before a modest $32.5B in 2025, while gross margin compressed from 30.1% to 11.9% and operating margin from 25.3% to 8.2%. Net income collapsed from $7.61B to $1.74B over the same span, and FCF flipped from +$8.12B (2022) to -$188M (2025). This is textbook steel cyclicality, not a broken business - the earnings quality checks are clean (Beneish M -2.5, Altman Z 5.59, OCF/NI 1.53x, accruals -4.5% of assets), meaning the reported downcycle is real, not manufactured.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment mix and whether higher-margin products (plate, sheet, downstream) are holding up better than the commodity-steel line
- Capex commitments for new mills - how much of the FCF pressure is growth capex vs. operating deterioration
- Any covenants or credit facility terms that tighten if EBITDA continues to compress
- Pace of buybacks in 2025 relative to negative FCF - is management pulling back or leaning in
- Pension/OPEB and environmental obligations disclosed in the 10-K
The composite fair value of $122 and signal-adjusted $116 imply about 57% downside from $272. I don't take those numbers literally - the DCF at $64 is almost certainly punishing a trough-year FCF (2025 FCF is negative, per the quality lens), and the anchored-PE at $260 is doing the opposite by leaning on depressed earnings against a normalized multiple. The EPV floor at $101 is the most honest anchor: it says the earning power of the business, absent growth heroics, is worth roughly $100/share. Even generously crediting Nucor's fortress balance sheet, buyback-driven per-share compounding, and best-in-class cost position, a deserved value in the $140-180 range is a stretch on mid-cycle earnings.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Normalized mid-cycle EBITDA and FCF assumptions used in the DCF - is trough 2025 dragging FV artificially low?
- Steel spread and utilization guidance from the next earnings call
- Pace and price of buybacks at current valuation - management discipline signal
- Order book detail on data-center and infrastructure exposure to test durability of the demand thesis
The macro tape is modestly risk-on (regime +47, VIX 15.3), which normally helps a high-beta cyclical like NUE (beta 1.89). But the specific narrative pressure cuts the other way: NUE is priced as if the reshoring/infrastructure/AI-datacenter steel boom is durable, yet the narrative itself is tagged fragile with low cult coefficient - meaning there is no true-believer base to defend the stock when the story wobbles. At $272 vs a fundamental anchor near $116, the marginal buyer is paying for narrative, not earnings power, and that is exactly the kind of setup that unwinds hard on any crack in the demand story. Rates at 4.72% and a market PE of 26 add a background press on all cyclicals, and NUE's 1.89 beta means any risk-off pulse gets amplified here. Momentum is mixed - a recent 5.7% bounce sits inside a longer negative trend (-3.3% CAGR, -7.7pp over 3y) - which reads as a relief rally within a still-suspect tape rather than a fresh uptrend. News flow (DRI market growth report) is neutral-to-mildly supportive but not a catalyst that changes the narrative arc. Net: the story is doing the heavy lifting on the upside and is structurally fragile, while the macro and analyst tone offer no strong offset. Pressure leans headwind, but not decisively - the risk-on tape prevents this from being a strong headwind.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Steel spot prices and HRC futures - any softening cracks the fragile narrative first
- Datacenter and infrastructure capex commentary from majors - the core bull pillar
- Analyst target revisions - watch for downgrades framing the multiple as unsustainable
- China steel export volumes - the primary bear catalyst that could break the story
- 10y yield direction - a move above 4.9% would compound the high-beta headwind
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 12, 2026, NUE was $271.95. We expect it to be $242.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $165.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 12, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.