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OLDER Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
39 days ago · 100% complete
This report is 39 days old — newer filings and price moves since then are not reflected.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Intuit Inc. (INTU) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Watch · Gem Score +7 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 72 · Value -37 · Sentiment 2 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $380.92 vs $316.07 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Intuit Inc.

INTU NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Application
Mountain View, CA 94043, United States intuit.com Updated Aug 2, 1:23pm
Price
$316.07
Market Cap
$86.5B
Employees
18,200
Beta
1.00
Avg Volume
4,940,267
Last Dividend
$4.80
CEO
Mr. Sasan K. Goodarzi

Intuit Inc. provides comprehensive business and financial management solutions tailored for small businesses, self-employed individuals, consumers, and professionals. Operating through key segments including Small Business and Self-Employed, Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax, the company delivers essential tools for everyday financial needs. The Small Business and Self-Employed segment features QuickBooks online services and desktop software for financial management, payroll processing, payment solutions, time tracking, bill pay, checking accounts, and financing options, alongside Mailchimp for marketing automation and customer relationship management. The Consumer segment offers TurboTax for retail tax preparation. Credit Karma provides personal finance insights, while ProTax supplies Lacerte, ProSeries, ProFile, and ProConnect Tax Online for professional tax services, electronic filing, and bank products. Intuit Inc. distributes its products via direct sales, multichannel experiences, mobile apps, and partner channels, serving a broad spectrum of users in the financial technology sector. Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Mountain View, California, Intuit Inc. plays a pivotal role in empowering efficient financial operations across diverse markets.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 1:34pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$316.07
as of Aug 2, 1:39pm (39d ago)
Change · Aug 2
+0.57 (+0.18%)
Day Range
$306.81 – $317.53
52-Week Range
$252.84 – $807.15
50-Day MA
$291.99
200-Day MA
$466.98
Volume
3,115,100.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 39d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 274,268,000.00
Float 267,281,209.00
Free Float 97.5%
High free float — 97.5% of shares trade freely, ~2.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:43pm (39d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:42pm (39d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:31pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.12
Stock Price: $316.07
EPS (Diluted): 13.67
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.54
Stock Price: $316.07
Total Equity: $19.71B
Shares: 283,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
17.98
Market Cap: $86.46B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Cash: $2.88B
EBITDA: $5.10B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$91.6B
Market Cap: $86.46B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Cash: $2.88B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $18.83B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
26.1%
Operating Income: $4.92B
Revenue: $18.83B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
20.5%
Net Income: $3.87B
Revenue: $18.83B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
19.6%
Net Income: $3.87B
Total Equity: $19.71B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
17.3%
Operating Income: $4.92B
Tax Rate: 20.0%
Equity: $19.71B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Cash: $2.88B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.36
Current Assets: $14.11B
Current Liabilities: $10.37B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.30
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $5.97B
Total Debt: $5.97B
Total Equity: $19.71B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$66.54
Revenue: $18.83B
Shares: 283,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$69.65
Total Equity: $19.71B
Shares: 283,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$21.64
Operating CF: $6.21B
CapEx: -$84.00M
Shares: 283,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.5%
Last Dividend: $4.80
Stock Price: $316.07
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
30.7%
Dividends Paid: -$1.19B
Net Income: $3.87B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:31pm
Compares INTU against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:42pm (39d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $9.6B $12.7B $14.4B $16.3B $18.8B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Operating Income $2.5B $2.6B $3.1B $3.6B $4.9B
Net Income $2.1B $2.1B $2.4B $3.0B $3.9B
EBITDA $2.7B $2.8B $3.3B $3.8B $5.1B
EPS $7.65 $7.38 $8.49 $10.58 $13.82
EPS (Diluted) $7.56 $7.28 $8.42 $10.43 $13.67
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:25pm (39d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $2.6B $2.8B $2.8B $3.6B $2.9B
Total Current Assets $5.2B $5.0B $5.6B $9.7B $14.1B
Total Assets $15.5B $27.7B $27.8B $32.1B $37.0B
Current Liabilities $2.7B $3.6B $3.8B $7.5B $10.4B
Long-Term Debt $2.0B $6.4B $6.1B $5.5B $6.0B
Total Liabilities $5.6B $11.3B $10.5B $13.7B $17.2B
Total Equity $9.9B $16.4B $17.3B $18.4B $19.7B
Retained Earnings $12.3B $13.6B $15.1B $17.0B $19.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:42pm (39d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $3.3B $3.9B $5.0B $4.9B $6.2B
Capital Expenditure -$53.0M -$157.0M -$210.0M -$191.0M -$84.0M
Free Cash Flow $3.2B $3.7B $4.8B $4.7B $6.1B
Acquisitions (net) -$3.1B -$5.7B -$33.0M -$83.0M -$184.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$338.0M $4.7B -$1.0B -$4.2B -$500.0M
Dividends Paid -$646.0M -$774.0M -$889.0M -$1.0B -$1.2B
Stock Buybacks -$1.0B -$1.9B -$2.0B -$2.0B -$2.8B
Net Change in Cash -$3.9B $178.0M -$145.0M $4.2B $2.4B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:42pm (39d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +32.1% +12.9% +13.3% +15.6%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +2.8% +22.2% +15.6% +35.6%
Net Income Growth +0.2% +15.4% +24.3% +30.6%
EBITDA Growth +3.5% +19.7% +14.8% +34.5%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:26pm (39d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-09 $1.20
2026-04-09 $1.20
2026-01-09 $1.20
2025-10-09 $1.20
2025-07-10 $1.04
2025-04-10 $1.04
2025-01-10 $1.04
2024-10-10 $1.04
2024-07-10 $0.90
2024-04-09 $0.90
2024-01-09 $0.90
2023-10-05 $0.90
2023-07-07 $0.78
2023-04-06 $0.78
2023-01-09 $0.78
2022-10-06 $0.78
2022-07-08 $0.68
2022-04-08 $0.68
2022-01-07 $0.68
2021-10-07 $0.68
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-11 02:04
-0.2 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -8%; a −1σ run costs 42%. Ratio -0.2:1 (μ 14.9%, σ 4.2% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($316.07)
Bull — recovery +23% 24.5% $338.58 +7%
Base — stabilizes +15% 21.3% $238.35 -25%
Bear — keeps slipping +8% 18.1% $163.75 -48%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +19% 23.4% $291.63 -8%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +11% 18.4% $182.65 -42%
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for INTU — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 13:41:12
Verdict Fairly valued around $316 — high-quality franchise but synthesis $357 target overweights inorganic historical growth; accumulate below $275, trim above $360.

The quarterly print pattern is Intuit's tax-season seasonality, not acceleration: April quarters are always the monster (Q3 fiscal, TurboTax peak) — $8.56B/35.8% margin in Apr-2026 vs $7.75B/36.4% in Apr-2025 is +10.5% revenue growth with 60bps margin compression at the seasonal peak. That's a deceleration from the 15.6% "recent YoY" figure the momentum module quotes, which is being flattered by easy comps in the small non-tax quarters (Oct-2024 had a weirdly weak $197M NI, Jul-2024 was slightly negative). Strip the noise and you have a business growing revenue low-double-digits with operating margins in the mid-20s — exactly what a $86B/23x PE mature software franchise should look like. FCF of $6.12B on ~$18.8B revenue is a 32.5% FCF margin, genuinely elite, and capex of $84M is a rounding error — this is a capital-light annuity.

Where I part company with the synthesis "undervalued at $357 fair value": the composite is leaning on a revenue CAGR (14.5%) and earnings CAGR (27.4%) computed off a five-year window that includes the Credit Karma acquisition (closed late 2020) and Mailchimp (2021) — inorganic revenue that will not repeat. Organic growth is closer to 10-12% and will compress as TurboTax faces IRS Direct File expansion (now in 25 states as of 2025) and as QuickBooks pricing hikes — which have driven a meaningful share of SMB segment growth — hit a ceiling. The Market Forces module's flag on the 1.73x accrual ratio deserves more weight than the synthesis gives it: with $6.21B OCF against $3.87B NI the cash conversion looks fine at the headline, but the accrual quality flag suggests reported earnings are running ahead of underlying cash economics on a working-capital-adjusted basis. That matters at 23x.

The contrarian case the models underweight: INTU has already de-rated from ~$807 to $316 (-61%) — the market has done a lot of the work of pricing in Direct File risk, AI disruption of tax prep (why pay $89-200 for TurboTax when GPT-5-class models can do a W-2 return for free?), and SMB softness. At 23x PE and 4.75x sales for a 32% FCF-margin franchise with $6B+ annual FCF, this is no longer priced as a hyper-growth platform — it's priced as what it is. The narrative module gets this right (anchored, minimal intensity). But "priced correctly for what it is" is not the same as "undervalued." The insider activity is entirely awards and option exercises — this is compensation flow, not conviction buying, and the "Net Insider Buying" tag in secondary signals is misleading; I see zero open-market purchases in the print.

I dissent partially from the synthesis $357 fair value — that number is overweighting inorganic historical growth. My read: fair value $300-340 on a 20-22x multiple of forward ~$17 EPS, putting current $316 within the fair-value band, not meaningfully cheap. The upside case requires either (a) Credit Karma re-accelerating into a genuine fintech platform (unproven after four years of ownership), (b) AI-driven ARPU expansion in QuickBooks actually showing up in numbers (Intuit Assist monetization is still speculative), or (c) multiple re-rating back toward 30x on macro tailwinds. None are base case. Downside case is Direct File takes 15-20% of the paid TurboTax funnel over three years and the multiple compresses to 18x — that's $250. Risk/reward is roughly symmetric around here, which is what "fairly valued" means. I'd want $270 or lower to build a position and would trim above $360.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 13:41:28
Verdict Undervalued at $316 — the market is valuing Intuit like a slow-growth legacy software name despite 15%+ revenue growth, 30%+ earnings growth, and 14x FCF; fair value looks closer to $370-$400 if current margins hold.

What jumps out first is that the stock price and the supplied valuation ratios do not fully agree, and that matters because the model stack is leaning on those ratios. At $316 and an $86.5B market cap against FY2025 net income of $3.87B, the equity is trading at roughly 22-23x trailing earnings, which matches the reported P/E. Against $6.12B of free cash flow, it is about 14x FCF. For a company that has grown revenue from $9.63B in FY2021 to $18.83B in FY2025, nearly a 19% annualized pace over four years, while lifting operating income from $2.50B to $4.92B and net income from $2.06B to $3.87B, that is not an expensive multiple. The quarterly run-rate is also healthy: the last four quarters sum to about $20.9B of revenue and $5.34B of net income, implying the current price is closer to 16x trailing quarterly annualized earnings if those numbers are clean. Even allowing for tax-season seasonality, the business is not behaving like a no-growth legacy asset.

The core story in the numbers is a high-quality software franchise still compounding at a very respectable rate with extraordinary cash conversion. FY2025 revenue grew 15.6% year over year, operating income grew 35.5%, and net income grew 30.7%. Free cash flow of $6.12B on $18.83B of revenue is a 32.5% FCF margin, and capex was only $84M, so this is a software model that throws off real owner earnings rather than accounting earnings flattered by capitalized spend. Balance sheet risk is modest: $5.97B debt versus $2.88B cash leaves about $3.1B net debt, trivial relative to annual FCF. ROIC at 17.3% and ROE near 19.6% support the idea that this is still an excellent allocator of capital within a durable moat. The quarter ending April 2026 was especially strong at $8.56B of revenue and $3.06B of net income, up from $7.75B and $2.82B a year earlier; even in a seasonal business, that shows the peak season remains intact.

I think the “mature earner” label is directionally right but too conservative in what it implies for valuation. Mature software with low-single-digit growth deserves a low-20s P/E. Intuit is not showing low-single-digit growth. The post-2024 quarterly progression from $3.18B to $3.28B to $3.96B to $7.75B to $3.83B to $3.89B to $4.65B to $8.56B points to a larger base still growing double digits, not a flatlining franchise. If the company can do around $21B+ of revenue and something like $5B+ of net income on the current trajectory, then $86B equity value looks closer to a quality-compounder discount than a full multiple. The supplied “traditional” framing also understates how sticky QuickBooks and related workflows are; the economics look more like mission-critical SMB infrastructure than generic application software, and the margin profile backs that up.

The best bear case is not valuation but durability of the tax and small-business moat. The quarterly pattern reminds you how dependent Intuit still is on tax season: one quarter contributes an outsized share of annual profits, which amplifies regulatory or competitive shocks. If IRS free-filing efforts or AI-assisted tax prep attack TurboTax’s pricing power, a 35%-plus spring margin can compress fast. On the SMB side, you can argue growth has been acquisition-assisted and price-led, not purely volume-led, and that the low single-digit sequential progression from $3.83B to $3.89B outside peak season is not evidence of a re-accelerating engine. A skeptic would also point out that if the “annual” P/E is 23x while the last four quarters imply something lower, there may be normalization issues in the earnings base, and the market may be correctly discounting peak-ish profitability. I weigh these concerns seriously, but the raw cash generation still makes the stock hard to call expensive unless one assumes a sharp structural slowdown very soon.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next full year lands materially below the current run-rate—say revenue growth falling under 8% while operating margin slips back toward 24-25% and FCF stalls around $6B—then today’s multiple is fair at best and the market is already looking through the peak. Likewise, evidence that the April quarter’s profitability is eroding, especially if tax-season net income drops below $2.7B on similar revenue, would suggest the moat is weakening. On the other hand, if Intuit converts this momentum into a $21B-$22B revenue year with net income over $4.5B and keeps FCF above $6.5B, I would expect the stock to deserve at least the high-$300s, and probably more.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 13:42:27
Verdict Undervalued at $316 vs $340-360 fair value; 19x TTM earnings and 14.6x FCF too low for 15% growth and 20%+ margins

Intuit at $316 is a cash-compounding franchise the market has over-punished after de-rating it from a growth-platform story to a mature earner. TTM revenue is already running near $20.9B with TTM net income of roughly $4.58B, so the stock trades at under 19x trailing earnings and about 14.6x the $6.12B of free cash flow generated in fiscal 2025. That FCF came on only $84M of capex and converted far above the $3.87B of reported net income, while operating margin sits at 26% and net margin at 20.5%. Revenue is still growing 15.6% year-over-year and earnings 30.6%, with the April 2026 tax quarter alone delivering $8.56B revenue and a 35.8% net margin. Multi-year revenue CAGR of 14.5% has produced 27.4% earnings CAGR, showing clear operating leverage as the formerly break-even summer and fall quarters have climbed into double-digit net margins. At 23x stated PE, 4.75x sales and 18x EV/EBITDA, with ROE near 20%, net debt under $3.1B and a 1.5% dividend covered by a 31% payout, the multiple embeds almost no credit for continued mid-teens growth or further margin expansion. The valuation work pointing to $325–358 is directionally correct; $316 is simply too cheap for this quality of recurring cash flow.

The seasonal pattern is intact and still improving: the three non-tax quarters that once printed mid-single-digit or negative margins now contribute meaningful profit, and Credit Karma plus the QuickBooks ecosystem continue to expand wallet share without wrecking the balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.30, current ratio 1.36). Fundamentals, not narrative, are setting the price—narrative intensity is minimal and the stock is anchored, exactly as a steady compounder should be.

The sharpest counter-argument is that the market’s skepticism is rational. An accrual ratio flagged at 1.73x raises earnings-quality questions even if FCF is strong; much of the recent growth may be price rather than volume, and TurboTax—still the profit engine of the April quarter—faces real structural threats from IRS direct-file expansion and generative-AI tax tools over a three-to-five-year horizon. The stock’s collapse from the prior $807 region shows how quickly a 50x+ multiple evaporates when the growth narrative cracks; if revenue growth settles into high single digits, 23x becomes full, not cheap. Insider “buying” is also illusory—the recent Form 4s are almost entirely equity awards and option exercises, not open-market purchases. I discount these risks because current growth has not decelerated, FCF conversion remains pristine, QuickBooks switching costs are still high, and the regulatory/AI threats have been discussed for years without yet denting the 15%+ top-line run rate or the 35%+ tax-season margins.

I would reverse to neutral or bearish if the next two quarters show revenue growth falling below 10% year-over-year, if off-season net margins roll over, or if unit data or management commentary confirms meaningful TurboTax share loss to free government or AI alternatives. A decisive break below $280 on company-specific news would also signal the market is correctly pricing a permanent growth step-down.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 7.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.7 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 8.0
Grok grok-4.5 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:14:38
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - starter here, add on weakness 6/10
High-quality compounder trading at a fair price with a whisper of sentiment tailwind — own it, but the fat pitch is $275, not $316.
The cruxWhether you're willing to pay a full ~32x multiple for continued mid-teens compounding with unpriced IRS Direct File tail-risk, or wait for a real discount to the anchored-PE.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from INTU's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+72
Strong
edge √Σ 144 · risk √Σ 54 · conf 8/10

Revenue nearly doubled from $9.63B (2021) to $18.83B (2025), a ~18% CAGR, while operating margin expanded from ~20-22% in the middle years back to 26.1% in 2025 and net income rose from $2.06B to $3.87B. FCF scaled from $3.20B to $6.12B, and OCF/NI of 1.77x with accruals at -7.2% of assets indicates earnings are backed by cash, not accounting artifacts. Altman Z of 4.82 places the balance sheet firmly in the safe zone despite net debt of ~$3.09B against only $2.88B liquid cash - the leverage is a mild constraint, not a risk, given $6B+ annual FCF.

Strengths 4
m78
Strong revenue and margin compounding
Revenue $9.63B to $18.83B (2021-2025, ~18% CAGR) with operating margin re-expanding to 26.1% and net income up ~88% to $3.87B.
m80
High earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.77x, accruals -7.2% of assets, Altman Z 4.82 - cash conversion strongly validates reported earnings.
m72
Robust FCF generation
FCF grew from $3.20B to $6.12B, a ~91% increase over four years, providing full self-funding capacity.
m55
Dilution controlled
Diluted share CAGR only 0.9%; buybacks at 124.9% of SBC neutralize the 10.5%-of-revenue stock comp expense.
Concerns 3
m40
Heavy SBC intensity
SBC at 10.5% of revenue is a real economic cost; buybacks cover it but represent capital that could otherwise return to shareholders or fund growth.
m30
Net debt position
Net cash of -$3.09B with only $2.88B liquid cash means balance sheet is a mild constraint rather than a cushion, though easily serviced by $6B+ FCF.
m20
Insider signal is neutral, not confirming
Tape is overwhelmingly awards and tax withholdings; the small $541K of buys vs $444K of sells is not meaningful directional evidence.
This is a high-quality mature software franchise doing what high-quality franchises do: growing revenue mid-to-high teens, expanding margins, converting earnings to cash at >1.7x, and holding the share count nearly flat. Nothing in the raw numbers or the forensic modules raises a red flag - accruals are negative (conservative), OCF outruns NI, and Altman Z is safely in fortress territory. The two honest quibbles are SBC intensity at 10.5% of revenue (real cost, offset by buybacks) and a modest net-debt position that means the balance sheet is workmanlike rather than fortress. Insider tape is uninformative - almost entirely equity awards. I read this as a Strong business, not a Fortress: the operating economics are excellent but not so pristine and defensible that they clear the 87 bar.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Segment concentration - how much of growth and profit comes from Credit Karma/Mailchimp acquisitions vs organic TurboTax/QuickBooks
  • Customer/product concentration risk in Small Business and Consumer segments
  • Debt maturity schedule and terms behind the $3B+ net debt position
  • Whether the 2025 operating margin re-expansion to 26.1% reflects durable operating leverage or one-time cost actions
  • AI competitive risk to TurboTax franchise from IRS Direct File and generative-AI tax tools
Valuation / Mispricing
-37
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 50 · risk √Σ 89 · conf 6/10
Price $316 vs composite deserved ~$325 (~3% gap) and signal-adj ~$358 (~13%) - fair to modestly cheap, no margin of safety. attractive below $275.00

The composite fair value of $324.77 sits ~3% above the $316.07 price, and the signal-adjusted $357.66 implies ~13% upside - modest, not a bargain. The anchored-PE of $346 is directionally consistent with a high-quality mature software compounder trading around 30x earnings; the DCF at $414.82 is the outlier and likely bakes in generous terminal growth for a mid-teens grower facing IRS Direct File and a maturing SMB TAM. The EPV floor of $123 is a reminder that stripped of growth, the business is worth far less than today's price - i.e. you are paying for continued compounding, and most of it is already in the tape. Quality is strong (72) and earnings quality is clean, which supports a premium multiple and raises deserved value, but strong quality is not itself a mispricing. The bull case (sticky QuickBooks SaaS, Credit Karma/Mailchimp cross-sell) is well understood; the bear case (regulatory tax-prep risk, ~32x on mid-single-to-teens growth) is also priced in. Net: the market has this one roughly right. I want a real discount to the anchored-PE, not a rounding error, before this is interesting.

Cheap signals 2
m40
Signal-adjusted FV ~13% above price
Signal-adjusted fair value of $357.66 vs $316.07 implies ~13% upside - real but not a fat pitch, and inside normal model error for a 30x software name.
m30
Anchored-PE $346 supports a small discount
The PE-anchored value of $346 is ~9% above the price and is the most defensible of the three methods for a mature, profitable compounder.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
EPV floor of $123 shows how much growth is priced in
Ex-growth earnings power values the equity at ~$123 - meaning ~60% of today's $316 price is paying for future compounding that must actually show up.
m45
DCF $415 likely runaway
A DCF ~31% above price for a mid-teens grower with regulatory overhang looks like generous terminal assumptions; I discount this input heavily and lean on the PE anchor.
m40
Multiple already reflects quality
At ~32x earnings, the market is fully aware INTU is a high-quality franchise; the quality-72 grade is in the price, not a source of edge.
m35
Regulatory tail-risk not obviously discounted
IRS Direct File expansion and free-filing pressure could compress TurboTax economics; a full multiple leaves no cushion for that scenario.
This is a good business at a fair price - the most common and least interesting setup. Composite FV $325 vs price $316 is a rounding error; the signal-adjusted 13% upside is inside model noise. I would need it closer to $275 (roughly 20% below the anchored-PE) before the risk-reward tilts my way, because a full multiple on a name with real regulatory tail-risk offers no margin of safety. Owning it here is fine; buying it aggressively is not.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • FY guidance for QuickBooks Online growth and Credit Karma revenue trajectory
  • Consumer Group (TurboTax) unit and ARPU trends vs IRS Direct File adoption data
  • Stock-based comp as % of revenue and its effect on true FCF conversion
  • Any one-time items (Mailchimp integration, restructuring) inflating margin narrative
General Sentiment
+2
Balanced
tail √Σ 64 · head √Σ 62 · conf 6/10

INTU's narrative is the definition of low-intensity: a steady compounder with a durable moat and no cult following. That means the tape and news flow move the stock more than any single story arc. The macro backdrop is genuinely neutral (VIX 16, S&P near highs, regime +22), and with beta ~1 INTU absorbs the tape rather than amplifying it. Higher rates and a 26.9x market PE are a mild headwind for a ~32x software name, but nothing acute right now. Recent flow is mixed-to-slightly-constructive: Q3 print was strong (15% GBS growth), AI restructuring is being framed positively by media, and momentum reads strong_positive. Against that, the May -20% gap on the workforce cut and TurboTax softness still lingers as a scar, and a certified Canadian class action adds a small overhang. Analyst tone is not screaming, and the bear framing (IRS free-file threat, mature growth, full multiple) is a persistent low-grade drag rather than an active de-rating. Net: no dominant force in either direction - a balanced read with a very slight tailwind lean from the improving AI/restructuring narrative offset by valuation-sensitivity to rates.

Tailwinds 3
m45
AI restructuring narrative turning constructive
Post-Q3 coverage is reframing the May workforce cut as an AI-driven efficiency story rather than a demand warning. That is a modest, still-building tailwind for a name whose narrative is otherwise sleepy.
m35
Neutral-to-mildly-risk-on tape suits a beta-1 compounder
Regime +22 with VIX 16 and indexes near highs is a benign backdrop. INTU's beta ~1 means it participates without being whipped; no tape stress to fight.
m30
Momentum tailwind
Strong_positive momentum score with a 14.5% CAGR trajectory keeps INTU in the 'own the compounders' bucket for institutional flow - a passive but real support.
Headwinds 4
m40
Rate/multiple sensitivity at 32x
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 create a persistent, low-grade discount rate headwind for premium-multiple software. Not acute, but it caps enthusiasm.
m35
May gap-down scar tissue
The 20% drawdown on the workforce/TurboTax miss is recent enough that positioning is cautious into any print or guidance update - a lingering sentiment drag.
m25
Ontario class action and IRS free-file overhang
Certified Canadian consumer class action plus the ongoing IRS direct-file bear narrative are chronic low-grade regulatory headlines - not decisive but they cap the bull story's ceiling.
m20
Low narrative intensity means no cult bid
With minimal narrative intensity and low cult coefficient, INTU has no story-driven buyer of last resort. On weak tape days it gets sold like any other software name, without a fanbase to catch it.
This is a genuinely balanced sentiment setup with a whisper of tailwind. The tape is benign, momentum is intact, and the post-Q3 AI-efficiency reframe is quietly helpful - but nothing here is decisive. The bear items (rates against a 32x multiple, May gap scar, regulatory overhangs) are chronic rather than acute. For a beta-1, low-narrative-intensity compounder, that adds up to Balanced with a slight lean up, not a directional bet.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether analyst target revisions are drifting up post-Q3 or staying flat
  • TurboTax season setup commentary and any IRS Direct File expansion news
  • Progress or settlement signals on the Ontario class action
  • Whether the AI-restructuring narrative gains intensity (upgrades citing margin expansion) or fades back to background
  • Rate path - a 10y break above 5% would meaningfully press the multiple
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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v1.1.608 · 729fcfcd · 2026-09-10 22:28:53