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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 12, 2026
today · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

Builders FirstSource, Inc.

BLDR NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Construction
Irving, TX 75039, United States IPO 2005 bldr.com Updated Jun 12, 3:00am
Price
$78.57
Market Cap
$8.5B
Employees
29,000
Beta
1.45
Avg Volume
2,574,628
CEO
Peter Jackson
Business Description

Builders FirstSource, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a key supplier of construction resources across the United States. The company is involved in fabricating and distributing a wide array of building materials, prefabricated components, and specialized construction services, catering to a diverse clientele that includes professional homebuilders, subcontractors, renovation experts, and individual consumers. Its extensive product range encompasses foundational lumber and sheet goods, such as dimensional timber, plywood, and oriented strand board, primarily used for on-site residential framing. Furthermore, Builders FirstSource manufactures factory-assembled elements like wood and steel floor and roof trusses, wall panels, stair units, and engineered wood products. Complementing these, the company supplies windows, both internal and external door assemblies, various interior and exterior finishing trims, and bespoke items marketed under the Synboard brand. Additionally, the firm provides gypsum, roofing, and insulation solutions, including wallboards, ceiling materials, joint compounds, and finishes. Its offerings also extend to siding, metal, and concrete products, featuring vinyl, composite, and wood siding options, alongside exterior trims, other exterior finishes, metal studs, and cement-based items. Beyond these materials, Builders FirstSource furnishes other building essentials like cabinetry and hardware, and delivers value-added services such as comprehensive turn-key framing, shell construction, design consultation, and expert installation. Founded in 1998, the enterprise initially operated as BSL Holdings, Inc. before formally changing its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. The company's corporate headquarters are situated in Dallas, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 12, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:00am (22h ago)
$78.57
+3.95 (+5.29%)
Day Range
$72.66 – $78.75
52-Week Range
$65.10 – $151.03
50-Day MA
$79.26
200-Day MA
$105.07
Volume
1,942,002.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $81.00
Consensus $106.64
High $143.00
(52 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 107,560,000.00
Float 104,436,337.00
Free Float 97.1%
High free float — 97.1% of shares trade freely, ~2.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:07am (22h ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:07am (22h ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 12, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
29.61
Stock Price: $78.57
EPS (Diluted): 3.91
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.63
Stock Price: $78.57
Total Equity: $4.35B
Shares: 111,822,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.23
Market Cap: $8.45B
Total Debt: $5.10B
Cash: $181.75M
EBITDA: $1.38B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$16.9B
Market Cap: $8.45B
Total Debt: $5.10B
Cash: $181.75M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
29.0%
Gross Profit: $4.41B
Revenue: $15.19B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
5.2%
Operating Income: $786.28M
Revenue: $15.19B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
2.9%
Net Income: $435.20M
Revenue: $15.19B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
6.9%
Net Income: $435.20M
Total Equity: $4.35B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
5.6%
Operating Income: $786.28M
Tax Rate: 15.1%
Equity: $4.35B
Total Debt: $5.10B
Cash: $181.75M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.86
Current Assets: $2.93B
Current Liabilities: $1.57B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.17
Short-Term Debt: $125.47M
Long-Term Debt: $4.97B
Total Debt: $5.10B
Total Equity: $4.35B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$135.85
Revenue: $15.19B
Shares: 111,822,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$38.92
Total Equity: $4.35B
Shares: 111,822,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.63
Operating CF: $1.22B
CapEx: -$362.60M
Shares: 111,822,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $78.57
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $435.20M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 12, 2026 3:01am
Compares BLDR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 12, 2026 3:05:44 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:07am (22h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $19.9B $22.7B $17.1B $16.4B $15.2B
Cost of Revenue $14.0B $15.0B $11.1B $11.0B $10.8B
Gross Profit $5.9B $7.7B $6.0B $5.4B $4.4B
Operating Expenses $3.5B $4.0B $3.8B $3.8B $3.6B
Operating Income $2.4B $3.8B $2.2B $1.6B $786.3M
Net Income $1.7B $2.7B $1.5B $1.1B $435.2M
EBITDA $2.9B $4.2B $2.7B $1.6B $1.4B
EPS $8.55 $16.98 $12.06 $9.13 $3.91
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:00am (22h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $42.6M $80.4M $66.2M $153.6M $181.8M
Total Current Assets $4.0B $3.5B $3.3B $3.1B $2.9B
Total Assets $10.7B $10.6B $10.5B $10.6B $11.2B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $1.8B $1.9B $1.8B $1.6B
Long-Term Debt $2.9B $3.0B $3.2B $3.7B $5.0B
Total Liabilities $5.9B $5.6B $5.8B $6.3B $6.9B
Total Equity $4.8B $5.0B $4.7B $4.3B $4.4B
Retained Earnings $540.0M $703.5M $460.2M $24.1M $153.9M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:07am (22h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.7B $3.6B $2.3B $1.9B $1.2B
Capital Expenditure -$227.9M -$340.2M -$476.3M -$380.6M -$362.6M
Free Cash Flow $1.5B $3.3B $1.8B $1.5B $853.3M
Acquisitions (net) -$1.1B -$628.0M -$238.7M -$344.1M -$1.1B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$1.7B -$2.6B -$1.8B -$1.5B -$414.0M
Net Change in Cash -$381.2M $37.8M -$14.3M $87.5M $28.1M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:00am (22h ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $14.8B
$14.6B – $15.0B
$15.6B
$15.4B – $16.0B
$16.6B
$16.6B – $16.7B
$17.3B
$16.7B – $17.8B
EBITDA $2.0B
$2.0B – $2.1B
$2.1B
$2.1B – $2.2B
$2.3B
$2.3B – $2.3B
$2.4B
$2.3B – $2.4B
Net Income $475.4M
$419.7M – $531.1M
$687.6M
$602.0M – $773.2M
$878.6M
$707.5M – $1.0B
$933.7M
$886.3M – $964.2M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:07am (22h ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +14.2% -24.8% -4.1% -7.4%
Gross Profit Growth +32.4% -22.4% -10.5% -18.1%
Operating Income Growth +57.9% -42.3% -26.7% -50.7%
Net Income Growth +59.3% -44.0% -30.0% -59.6%
EBITDA Growth +44.8% -35.5% -41.7% -13.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 12, 2026 3:05am (22h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-05 Herron Stephen J G-Gift 850.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-04 Hiller Michael G-Gift 900.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-01 Boydston Cory Jacobs A-Award 409.00 $76.26 $31,190
2026-06-01 Renz Maria A-Award 426.00 $76.26 $32,487
2026-06-01 OLEARY JAMES A-Award 491.00 $76.26 $37,444
2026-06-01 ALEXANDER MARK A A-Award 409.00 $76.26 $31,190
2026-06-01 CHRISTOPHE CLEVELAND A A-Award 491.00 $76.26 $37,444
2026-06-01 LEVY PAUL S A-Award 1,049.00 $76.26 $79,997
2026-06-01 Hayes William B A-Award 508.00 $76.26 $38,740
2026-06-01 Charles Dirkson R A-Award 409.00 $76.26 $31,190
2026-06-01 Steinke Craig Arthur A-Award 491.00 $76.26 $37,444
2026-05-18 O'Brien Matthew Coley 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 LEVY PAUL S A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Hayes William B A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Renz Maria A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 ALEXANDER MARK A A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 CHRISTOPHE CLEVELAND A A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Rush David E A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Boydston Cory Jacobs A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 MILGRIM BRETT N A-Award 2,558.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BLDR.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-12 03:06:53
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict I land between the synthesis (too bullish) and Market Forces (too apocalyptic). Fair value on normalized $500-600M NI at 15-17x is $50-65, with the current $78 embedding a housing recovery that may come in 2027 but isn't visible in the Q1'26 numbers. Reverse-DCF anchor at $64 from the narrative layer is roughly where I'd peg fair value, maybe a touch lower. This isn't disconnected-cheap; it's reasonably-priced-for-eventual-recovery with downside to $55-60 if Q2'26 disappoints. The synthesis models are anchoring on 2022-2024 earnings power that won't return without a lumber spike. Skip until either (a) starts inflect or (b) the stock breaks $60 and offers actual margin of safety against a trough that's still in front of us, not behind.

The raw trajectory here is uglier than the synthesis lets on. Quarterly revenue has gone from $4.46B (Q2'24) → $4.23B → $3.82B → $3.66B → $4.23B → $3.94B → $3.36B → $3.29B (Q1'26), with net income collapsing from $344M to a $47M loss over the same eight quarters. Margins inverted: 7.7% net in mid-2024 to -1.4% now. That's not "cyclically depressed" — that's an active deterioration through Q1'26 with no visible inflection. Annual NI: $2.75B (2022) → $1.54B → $1.08B → $435M (2025), and the TTM run-rate based on the last four quarters is roughly $292M, meaning the "29.6x P/E" is on a still-falling E. On forward earnings closer to $200-250M if Q2'26 stays negative, the multiple is 35-40x. That isn't a cheap cyclical; that's a cyclical priced for recovery that hasn't started.

I disagree with the Valuation Synthesis verdict of "Disconnected from Fundamentals" in the bullish direction. The synthesis frames the market as pricing -10% perpetual FCF decline, but FCF actually fell from peak to $853M in 2025 and is likely tracking sub-$500M TTM given the Q1'26 loss. EV/EBITDA of 11.2x on TTM is not screaming cheap for a distributor whose EBITDA is mid-cycle-rolling-into-trough. The Pre-Flight note that the stock trades at "18x trough earnings" actually argues against the bull case — paying 18x trough for a cyclical with no rate-cut catalyst and housing starts stuck is fair, not generous. Meanwhile Market Forces flags "probable covenant violations and dilutive restructuring" — that's a serious claim contradicted by $1.22B OCF and $853M FCF in 2025, plus a 1.86 current ratio. The balance sheet tile is missing total debt, which is the single most important number for a cyclical distributor; without it, the distress call is unsupported speculation. I'd dissent from Market Forces too — this looks stressed, not distressed.

The contrarian argument cuts both ways and I'll take the bear side against the Narrative layer's "steady-compounder" framing. BLDR is not a compounder; it's a lumber-and-truss distributor whose 2021-2022 earnings were inflated by once-in-a-generation lumber price spikes and COVID-era housing demand. Normalizing to pre-2021 earning power (roughly $400-700M NI), the stock at $78 and an $8.45B market cap is trading at 12-20x mid-cycle — which is reasonable but not cheap, and offers no margin of safety if housing starts stay at 1.3M into 2027. The bull thesis requires both (a) rate cuts driving a starts recovery and (b) BLDR holding share against Home Depot Pro and regional consolidators while value-added prefab scales. Insider activity is mostly awards and gifts, not open-market buys — the "Net Insider Buying" tag is misleading; awards aren't conviction signals. The data is also stale-feeling: a Q1'26 print with a loss demands knowing what management said about Q2 guidance, and that's absent.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-12 03:07:00
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — BLDR is not a bargain at $78. Fair value is closer to $60, aligning with Opus's $55-60 range. The stock lacks a margin of safety given ongoing cyclical pressures and no immediate recovery signals.

My independent analysis of Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) paints a picture of a company experiencing significant cyclical pressures, with revenue and net income facing a stark decline over recent quarters. From a peak quarterly revenue of $4.46B in Q2 2024, the numbers have decreased to $3.29B by Q1 2026, with an alarming net income drop from $344.1M to a loss of $47.4M. This is indicative of more than just cyclical depression; it suggests active financial deterioration. The annual revenue trajectory shows a decline from $22.73B in 2022 to $15.19B in 2025, while operating income and net income have both sharply decreased — a concerning trend that indicates significant headwinds that BLDR has yet to overcome.

I agree with Claude Opus's assertion that BLDR's current valuation is not aligned with the fundamentals, particularly when considering its P/E ratio of 29.6x based on trailing twelve months, which could be misleading given the ongoing decline in earnings. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 11.2x seems high for a company in the midst of a downturn, especially one reliant on cyclical factors such as housing starts and lumber prices. Opus correctly challenges the bullish "Disconnected from Fundamentals" verdict, as the evidence suggests the company is not priced cheaply for a cyclical recovery, especially given the lack of a visible catalyst for growth in the near term.

Where I diverge slightly from Opus is in the consideration of the company's financial resilience. The Market Forces analysis suggests potential covenant violations and restructuring risks, which seems speculative without detailed debt figures. Given the company's $1.22B in operating cash flow and $853.3M in free cash flow in 2025, BLDR appears to maintain a level of financial stability that contradicts the notion of impending distress. Thus, while the company is undoubtedly stressed, it may not be on the brink of financial distress as severe as implied.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating the potential for a housing market rebound driven by macroeconomic shifts or unexpected policy changes that could catalyze new growth for BLDR. They might also point out that the company's scale and integration in the prefabrication and lumber distribution markets could enable it to capture market share from smaller competitors, thus supporting its valuation despite current financial headwinds.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-12 03:08:39
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Genuinely well-run cyclical (+16 quality) at a 23% premium to fair value (-65 value) — right name, wrong price.
The cruxWhether you get a housing-driven drawdown back into the low-$60s to align price with the deserved value of a trough-earnings cyclical.
Company Quality
+16
Solid
edge √Σ 127 · risk √Σ 111 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-65
Rich
edge √Σ 40 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses don't actually disagree — they're telling me the same story from different sides. Quality at +16 says this is a legitimately well-run distributor with elite, share-count-halving capital return and clean accounting; value at -65 says I'm being asked to pay full freight for that quality at exactly the wrong point in the cycle, with operating margin already collapsed from 16.6% to 5.2% and a $64 composite FV vs $78.57 tape. Paying a 23% premium on trough-ish earnings for a leveraged housing-cycle bet — with $4.9B net debt funding the buyback — is the textbook late-cycle trap, no matter how much I admire the buyback math.

My play: no position at $78. I put BLDR on the priority watchlist and do nothing until it prints a 6-handle. Starter position (about a third of target weight) at $64, which is the composite FV and gives me alignment with the value lens. Add another third at $58 and the final third at $52 — a forced housing-scare drawdown is exactly the setup where the elite buyback compounds per-share value fastest, so I want to be scaling in, not one-shotting. I flip aggressive (full weight, faster) if we get a rate-cut catalyst with the stock already in the low $60s. I stay sidelined and let it run if it grinds to $90+ on a housing-reacceleration narrative without a real earnings inflection — chasing a +16 quality name into a richer multiple is not the trade. Bottom line: right business, wrong price, be patient.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+16 Solid edge √Σ 127 · risk √Σ 111 · conf 7/10

BLDR is a mature, cash-generative building products distributor whose underlying earnings power is in clear cyclical decline: revenue has fallen from $22.7B (2022) to $15.2B (2025), operating margin compressed from 16.6% to 5.2%, and net income collapsed from $2.75B to $435M over the same span. FCF remains positive at $853M but is roughly a quarter of the 2022 peak ($3.26B), confirming this is a housing/construction-cycle business, not a structurally impaired one. Earnings quality is clean — OCF/NI of 1.67x, accruals at -6% of assets, Beneish M of -2.92 — so the deteriorating numbers are real, not cosmetic.

Capital allocation is the standout strength. Diluted share count has been crushed from 203.5M (2021) to 111.8M (2025), a -13.9% CAGR, with buybacks running 35x SBC. Per-share value has been aggressively concentrated even as the absolute earnings shrink — 2025 EPS math benefits materially from a ~45% lower share count vs. 2021. The trade-off is balance sheet: net debt of ~$4.92B against only $182M cash and Altman Z of 2.48 (grey zone) means management is funding the buyback in part with leverage during a downcycle, which is a deliberate bet on the housing recovery.

Insider behavior is modestly constructive — net buying $4.6M vs $0.6M selling over 12 months, though the recent tape is dominated by routine awards and gifts rather than open-market conviction buys. Overall: a well-run cyclical with clean books and aggressive per-share value creation, constrained by leverage and an unfavorable phase of its end-market cycle.

Strengths 4
m85
Aggressive share count reduction
Diluted shares fell from 203.5M to 111.8M (2021-2025), a -13.9% CAGR with buybacks at 3,562% of SBC. Per-share value concentration is among the most aggressive in the sector.
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.67x, accruals at -6% of assets, Beneish M of -2.92. Cash conversion exceeds reported earnings — declining numbers are real, not manipulated.
m55
Self-funding through downcycle
Even in a trough year, FCF of $853M comfortably funds operations. Business does not need external capital despite cyclical pressure.
m30
Modest net insider buying
$4.6M buys vs $0.6M sells over 12 months, though recent tape is mostly awards/gifts rather than fresh open-market conviction.
Concerns 3
m75
Severe margin and earnings compression
Operating margin collapsed from 16.6% (2022) to 5.2% (2025); net income fell 84% from $2.75B to $435M. Reveals limited pricing power and high operating leverage to housing volumes.
m65
Net debt is meaningful relative to trough cash flow
Net debt of $4.92B vs. $853M trough FCF = ~5.8x. Altman Z of 2.48 sits in the grey zone. Leverage was taken on partly to fund buybacks — works in a recovery, painful if the downcycle extends.
m50
Revenue trajectory still deteriorating
Revenue declined every year from 2022 ($22.7B) to 2025 ($15.2B), with 2025 down 7.4% YoY. No visible inflection yet in the raw data.
This is a well-run cyclical, not a structurally great business. The buyback program is genuinely elite — shrinking the share count nearly in half in four years while keeping accounting clean is rare. But I won't pretend the operating economics are durable: a business that goes from 16.6% to 5.2% operating margin in three years has limited moat and is mostly a leveraged play on US housing starts. Management is doubling down via debt-funded buybacks in a downcycle, which is either brilliant counter-cyclical capital allocation or a balance sheet that gets uncomfortable if rates stay high and housing doesn't recover. Solid quality, not Fortress — the leverage and cyclicality cap how high I'll grade this.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenant headroom — how much of the $4.92B net debt comes due within 24 months
  • Customer/end-market concentration: single-family vs multi-family vs R&R exposure
  • Whether buyback pace has continued at 2025 cadence or moderated given leverage
  • Segment-level margin disclosure — is value-added/manufactured products holding up better than commodity distribution
  • Lumber price normalization impact vs. true volume decline in the revenue drop
  • Goodwill/intangibles balance from BMC merger and any impairment risk if downcycle extends
-65 Rich edge √Σ 40 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10
Price $78.57 vs composite FV $64.01 — roughly 23% overvalued, no margin of safety. attractive below $60.00

The e2e composite fair value of $64.01 lines up with the bear framing — the market is paying a ~23% premium to DCF on a cyclical distributor whose operating margin has collapsed from 16.6% to 5.2%. Earnings quality is clean, so there's no haircut to apply, and the Solid quality grade plus elite buyback program justify some premium to a pure-cycle DCF — but not 23% when the cycle is actively biting. A deserved value in the high-$60s to low-$70s feels defensible; $78.57 doesn't.

What's priced in: a soft-landing/housing-reacceleration narrative plus continued aggressive buybacks compounding per-share value. What has to go right: rates ease, starts inflect, and BLDR's scale advantage holds against backward integration risk from large builders. None of that is heroic individually, but all of it is required to grow into the price. There is no margin of safety here — this is a 'pay full price for a well-run cyclical at the wrong point in the cycle' setup.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Buyback compounding is real
Share count nearly halved in four years — per-share deserved value rises faster than the business, and a $64 FV may understate this dynamic, supporting a modest premium (but not 23%).
m20
Clean earnings, no haircut needed
High earnings quality (score 2) means the $64 FV doesn't need a further trim — deserved value isn't lower than the model output.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
23% premium to composite fair value
Composite and signal-adjusted FV both sit at $64.01 vs $78.57 price — the e2e tag literally reads 'Disconnected from Fundamentals.'
m65
Margins collapsing into the multiple
Operating margin went from 16.6% to 5.2% in three years; paying a premium multiple while unit economics deteriorate is the classic late-cycle trap.
m45
Priced for housing reacceleration
Bull case requires sticky housing demand AND sustained scale moat against builder backward integration — both need to hit to justify $78.
I can't get to cheap here. The composite says $64, the price is $78.57, and even generously crediting the elite buyback I get to maybe a low-$70s deserved value — still below today. This is a well-run cyclical paying full freight at a moment when its own P&L is showing the cycle bite. I'd want it in the low $60s before it's interesting; fair-to-rich is the honest read at $78.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward guidance on single-family starts exposure and value-added (prefab/components) mix vs commodity lumber
  • Pace and authorization size of remaining buyback — accretion math depends on it
  • Any commentary on large-builder insourcing of components
  • Gross margin trajectory in latest quarter — is the 5.2% op margin the trough or still descending?
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16