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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Coherent Corp. (COHR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -44 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -29 · Value -57 · Sentiment 39 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $-50.99 vs $325.83 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
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Coherent Corp.
COHR NYSECoherent Corp. is an electronic technology company that develops, manufactures, and markets engineered materials, opto-electronic components and devices, and laser systems for industrial, communications, electronics, and instrumentation applications. The company operates through three core segments: Networking, Materials, and Lasers, serving customers in data center and communications infrastructure, semiconductor capital equipment, display manufacturing, precision manufacturing, aerospace and defense, and scientific research. Its product portfolio includes transceivers, optical modules, semiconductor devices, laser optics, advanced materials, and a range of industrial laser systems. Coherent Corp. plays a significant role in enabling high-performance connectivity, materials processing, and photonics-based applications across multiple technology-driven markets. Headquartered in Saxonburg, Pennsylvania, and founded in 1971, Coherent Corp. is recognized for its broad platform of photonic and materials solutions.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.12
Total Equity: $11.24B
Shares: 195,387,000
Total Debt: $3.22B
Cash: $1.16B
EBITDA: $1.37B
Total Debt: $3.22B
Cash: $1.16B
Revenue: $7.12B
Revenue: $7.12B
Revenue: $7.12B
Total Equity: $11.24B
Tax Rate: 7.2%
Equity: $11.24B
Total Debt: $3.22B
Cash: $1.16B
Current Liabilities: $2.85B
Long-Term Debt: $3.21B
Total Debt: $3.22B
Total Equity: $11.24B
Shares: 195,387,000
Shares: 195,387,000
CapEx: -$1.10B
Shares: 195,387,000
Stock Price: $325.83
Net Income: $805.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:37am (51d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.3B | $5.2B | $4.7B | $5.8B | $7.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.1B | $3.5B | $3.3B | $3.8B | $4.4B |
| Gross Profit | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $2.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $851.2M | $1.7B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $1.8B |
| Operating Income | $414.3M | -$37.1M | $96.1M | $94.2M | $847.7M |
| Net Income | $234.8M | -$259.5M | -$156.2M | $49.4M | $805.0M |
| EBITDA | $701.1M | $644.6M | $655.9M | $647.8M | $1.4B |
| EPS | $1.57 | $-2.93 | $-1.84 | $-0.52 | $4.34 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.45 | $-2.93 | $-1.84 | $-0.52 | $4.12 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:19am (51d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.6B | $821.3M | $926.0M | $909.2M | $1.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $4.3B | $3.3B | $3.7B | $3.9B | $6.9B |
| Total Assets | $7.8B | $13.7B | $14.5B | $14.9B | $18.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.9B | $4.2B | $4.0B | $3.5B | $3.2B |
| Total Liabilities | $3.5B | $6.5B | $6.5B | $6.4B | $7.1B |
| Total Equity | $4.4B | $7.2B | $7.9B | $8.5B | $11.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $1.3B | $944.4M | $664.9M | $584.4M | $1.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:37am (51d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $413.3M | $634.0M | $545.7M | $633.6M | $79.5M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$314.3M | -$436.1M | -$346.8M | -$440.8M | -$1.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | $99.0M | $198.0M | $198.9M | $192.8M | -$1.0B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | -$5.5B | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $990.0M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $990.5M | -$1.7B | $952.1M | -$156.8M | $135.5M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:37am (51d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +55.6% | -8.8% | +23.4% | +22.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +27.9% | -10.0% | +40.3% | +30.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | -109.0% | +358.9% | -2.0% | +800.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -210.5% | +39.8% | +131.6% | +1,530.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | -8.1% | +1.8% | -1.2% | +111.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:26pm (57d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-12-17 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-04 02:01A +1σ run of quarters pays -85%; a −1σ run costs 95%. Ratio -0.9:1 (μ 21.8%, σ 14.2% , 16 pairs).
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($325.83) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +27% | 17.3% | $68.77 | -79% |
| Base — stabilizes | +18% | 15.0% | $47.22 | -86% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +9% | 12.8% | $31.64 | -90% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +36% | 8.8% | $48.51 | -85% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +8% | 5.7% | $16.23 | -95% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:17The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Reading the raw numbers first: quarterly revenue has ripped from $1.35B (Sep-24) to $2.05B (Jun-26) — that's 52% growth over seven quarters with no stumbles, and sequential acceleration into the most recent print (+$240M QoQ, the biggest step yet). Net margin traveled from 1.9% to 11.8% over the same window, and FY26 operating income of $848M is nearly 9x FY25's $94M. This is a genuine inflection, not a story stock — the datacenter optical cycle is landing on the P&L. But FY26 operating CF of just $79.5M against $805M net income and -$1.02B FCF (capex $1.10B) is the tell: earnings quality is poor, and the company is spending its entire reported profit plus another billion to chase the AI capex wave. At 9x sales, 48x EV/EBITDA, and 79x earnings on a business that generated negative free cash flow last year, you are paying platform-monopoly multiples for a photonics fab-builder.
Where I agree with the prior models: the synthesis "priced for perfection" call and the thesis engine's -13 net score are directionally right. The market cap of $63.75B implicitly values Networking at LITE-like multiples while assigning nothing to the drag from Materials/Lasers, which is a lopsided bet. The "narrative_platform" classification is defensible but somewhat lazy — this isn't Palantir, it's a real industrial supplier whose earnings ARE the fundamental question, so I'd push back on dismissing PE/ROIC as "lagging." ROIC of 5.9% on a capital-intensive business trading at 5.7x book is the actual problem, not a stale metric. Where I partially dissent: the synthesis calls this a "high-conviction AVOID" and value trap, but a 23% revenue CAGR with visibly accelerating quarterly cadence and expanding gross margin (37.5% FY26 vs 31.1% FY24) is not a value trap — it's an expensive winner. Value traps don't compound revenue 52% in seven quarters. The correct framing is "great business, wrong price," not "broken thesis."
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: if the 800G/1.6T transceiver cycle runs through 2027-2028 without a pause (hyperscaler capex guidance suggests it will), Coherent could do $9B revenue at 15% net margin = $1.35B NI in FY27, putting forward P/E near 47x — still rich but not absurd for the growth rate. The vertical-integration InP moat is real; Lumentum, Fabrinet, and Chinese competitors can't easily replicate the substrate-to-module stack. The bear-case debt panic is overblown — $3.22B debt against $11.24B equity and a 2.43 current ratio is not a covenant story; the thesis engine's "debt covenant breach risk" as top bear (weight 71) is the weakest part of that analysis and I'd discount it. Insider selling is present but tiny in scale (1,000-2,000 share clips) — this is routine RSU-driven, not a red flag. What IS a red flag: -$1.02B FCF while reporting $805M NI means working capital and capex are eating everything, and the market is capitalizing GAAP earnings that haven't yet converted to cash.
Where the data is thin: no forward guidance shown, no segment breakdown to test the "Networking is 40% of revenue but 90% of the value" claim, and the momentum panel is missing earnings/FCF CAGRs because the base periods are negative. The pre-flight commentary and synthesis both get truncated, so I'm inferring their full argument. My verdict: I partially agree with synthesis but reject the "AVOID" framing — this is fairly-valued-to-modestly-overvalued at $326, not a short. Fair value around $240-270 assuming FY27 NI of ~$1.1B at a 25-28x multiple (justified by growth but discounted for cash conversion). At $325 you're paying for FY28 numbers already. I'd wait for a $260 handle or a capex-guidance-cut selloff before starting; existing holders should trim, not exit. The story is real, the cash conversion is not, and the multiple leaves no room for a single quarter of decel.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that the income statement has turned sharply upward while the cash flow statement is still waving a red flag, and at $63.8B the market is paying almost entirely for the former. Coherent just printed $7.12B of revenue, up 23% from $5.81B, and net income exploded from $49M to $805M. Quarterly revenue has risen cleanly from $1.35B in September 2024 to $2.05B in June 2026, with net margins improving from 1.9% to 11.8% over that span. That is real operating progress, not just a one-quarter spike. But the valuation is extreme relative to what has actually been proven: 8.9x sales, 48x EV/EBITDA, and 79x earnings for a company with 11.3% annual net margin, 5.9% ROIC, and a business mix that is still at least partly industrial and cyclical. If this were a pure software platform, maybe you tolerate that disconnect. For a photonics and components company with hardware economics, I don’t.
The biggest contradiction in the whole pack is simple: $805M of net income versus just $79.5M of operating cash flow and negative $1.02B of free cash flow. Even allowing for growth capex, that is a massive gap. Capex at $1.10B against $7.12B of revenue is over 15% of sales, which means today’s earnings power is nowhere near as free-cash-flow rich as the stock price implies. Bulls will argue this is investment for future demand, and maybe it is, but when a stock trades at nearly $64B the burden of proof shifts. You cannot capitalize every good story indefinitely. The market is effectively valuing Coherent as if the recent run-rate — revenue stepping from $1.69B to $1.81B to $2.05B over the last three quarters, with margins climbing from 8.7% to 10.6% to 11.8% — will persist long enough to convert a capital-intensive manufacturer into a premium compounder. That is a heroic assumption.
The balance sheet is not distressed, but it is not a reason to stretch either. Net debt is about $2.06B after backing out $1.16B of cash from $3.22B of debt, and debt to equity at 0.29 is manageable. Current ratio at 2.43 says no near-term liquidity issue. So this is not a solvency short. My problem is much narrower: the enterprise is probably better than the stock. The company has undeniably improved from the ugly 2023-2025 period, when annual operating income hovered around breakeven or negative and net income was negative $259M in 2023 and negative $156M in 2024. But the stock now capitalizes one clean year of recovery as though the cycle risk has disappeared. A 14.3% net margin in September 2025 was followed immediately by a negative 6.3% margin in June 2025 earlier in the sequence; that reminds you how lumpy this can be. Even if 2026 represents the new base, paying 79x earnings and nearly 9x sales for this kind of business leaves very little room for a pause in AI optical demand, pricing pressure, or a digestion period in non-networking segments.
The strongest argument against my bearish read is that I may be anchoring to trailing cash flow and blended margins while the business mix is rapidly changing. If the higher-value networking exposure is becoming dominant, then trailing multiples understate normalized earnings power. The last four quarters show revenue up from $1.58B to $2.05B and net income from $226M to $241M, despite a much larger revenue base than a year ago; that can be read as evidence that operating leverage is real and still early. On that view, the ugly free cash flow is not poor quality earnings but deliberate capacity buildout ahead of sustained 800G/1.6T demand, and the 2026 operating margin of 11.9% may be a waypoint rather than a peak. If earnings can move from $805M to something like $1.5B-$2.0B over the next two years without proportional capex, today’s valuation looks less insane. I weigh that possibility lower because the current numbers do not yet show that conversion, and because cyclical hardware suppliers rarely get to keep “scarcity” multiples once supply catches up.
What would change my mind is straightforward: I need to see cash catch up to earnings and margins hold through another leg of growth. Specifically, if operating cash flow moves from $79.5M to comfortably above $1B on a similar earnings base, and free cash flow turns clearly positive even with capex elevated, then the quality objection weakens materially. I would also want to see at least two more quarters with revenue above $2.0B and net margin staying around 11%-13%, proving that the latest quarter is not a local peak. Absent that, I think the stock is priced for perfection. A fairer setup would be closer to 5-6x sales, which on $7.1B of revenue implies roughly $36B-$43B of equity value, not $64B.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a genuine operating inflection that the valuation has already fully capitalized and then some. Coherent just printed $7.12B in fiscal 2026 revenue, up 23% from $5.81B, with the exit quarter at $2.05B—roughly 34% above the year-ago $1.53B—and sequential growth unbroken for eight quarters. Net income swung from $49M to $805M, operating margin reached 11.9%, and gross margin expanded to 37.5% from the mid-30s and low-30s of prior years. That is real leverage, not accounting noise. The market, however, is paying $64B, or 79x trailing earnings, 9.0x sales, and 48x EV/EBITDA, for a business whose ROIC is still only 5.9% and whose ROE is 7.2%. Those return ratios do not support a platform multiple; they support a cyclical industrial-tech multiple with an AI option attached.
The cash-flow statement is the sharpest contradiction in the file. Operating cash flow was a meager $79.5M against $805M of reported net income, and free cash flow was negative $1.02B after $1.10B of capex. Earnings quality is therefore weak on a trailing basis: either working capital is absorbing cash at an alarming rate, or the company is in a heavy capacity-build phase whose payback is still unproven. Debt of $3.22B against $1.16B cash and $11.2B equity is not a covenant emergency—the 0.29 debt-to-equity and 2.43 current ratio are serviceable—but funding a billion-dollar FCF hole while trading at perfection multiples leaves no margin for a networking slowdown or a materials/lasers recession. Insider activity is net selling, consistent with management treating elevated prices as an opportunity rather than a signal of undervaluation.
The prior models correctly flag “priced for perfection,” but they overstate the fragility. The bear case that profitability is “artificial” undersells eight quarters of sequential revenue growth and a 600-plus basis-point gross-margin recovery; the debt-covenant alarm is louder than the balance-sheet ratios justify. A smart opponent would also note that if the Networking segment is truly capturing 800G/1.6T share at Lumentum-like economics, the embedded optionality could eventually earn a large slice of the current $64B enterprise value, and the materials and lasers drag is already partially discounted in the conglomerate structure. I weigh that less heavily because 60% of the revenue base remains cyclical industrial exposure, ROIC has not yet compounded above the cost of capital, and negative FCF at this scale means equity holders are still writing checks for growth that the multiple already assumes will arrive flawlessly.
I would flip toward neutral or constructive only if the next two quarters show operating cash flow converting at least 60–70% of net income, FCF turning positive or approaching breakeven as the capex wave peaks, and Networking growth sustaining above 30% while consolidated gross margin holds or expands through 38–40%. A print of roughly $2.3B-plus quarterly revenue with double-digit FCF margins would force a re-rating discussion; a guidance cut on hyperscaler optical demand or another leg down in industrial lasers would confirm the multiple compression thesis.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Coherent's operating trajectory in FY2026 is genuinely impressive on the surface: revenue $7.12B (+22.6% YoY), gross margin recovering to 37.5% from a 30.9% trough, operating margin snapping to 11.9% from ~2%, and net income swinging to $805M after three consecutive loss/near-zero years. Accruals are clean (-2.7% of assets), Beneish M at -1.99 and Altman Z of 6.33 suggest no manipulation flags, and OCF/NI of 1.75x supports the earnings print. This is a business emerging from post-II-VI/Coherent-merger digestion with real operating leverage. The catch is severe. Diluted share count went from 116.5M (2022) to 195.4M (2026) - a 13.8% CAGR, meaning per-share economics have been diluted ~68% over four years while the enterprise scaled. FY2026 FCF was -$1.02B despite reported net income of $805M - a massive divergence that the 'high earnings quality' score misses because it looks at accruals, not capex intensity. Liquid cash $1.99B against net debt of $1.24B and a ~7.8 quarter runway at current burn means another capital event is plausible. Insider tape is one-sided: 33 sells totaling ~$7.56B over 12 months versus zero open-market buys - the recent tape shown is dominated by small S-sales and F-InKind tax withholdings, but the aggregate dollar figure is striking for a company still carrying net debt. Net: a rebounding, scaled platform in AI/photonics adjacencies with legitimate margin recovery, but per-share value creation is being taxed hard by dilution and capex, and insiders are net distributors of stock at scale.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- FY2026 capex composition and whether the FCF hole is one-time capacity buildout or structural
- Any convertible notes or preferred stock feeding the diluted share count (was 13.8% CAGR driven by M and A, converts, or SBC?)
- Customer concentration in datacom/AI transceiver business - single-customer risk
- Terms of any outstanding preferred/convertible instruments tied to Coherent-II-VI merger financing
- Whether the $7.56B insider sale aggregate includes 10b5-1 plan sales vs discretionary sales
- Segment-level margin detail to confirm the mix shift driving GM recovery
Coherent trades at $325.83 for a ~$63.7B market cap on a business still carrying roughly $3.7B of merger debt, negative FCF in the very year the AI-datacom leverage is supposed to prove itself, and a diluted share count that has expanded ~68% in four years with no buyback offset. The composite narrative frames it as a platform-monopoly pick for AI infrastructure, but the price already embeds that outcome: you are paying today for a multi-year, uninterrupted transceiver/optical-interconnect ramp plus margin expansion, with the semi-cap and industrial laser segments assumed to cooperate through the cycle.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- FY2026/2027 FCF conversion - does the datacom ramp actually turn into cash, or stay stuck in working capital and capex?
- Transceiver segment growth and gross margin trajectory vs. Asian competition
- Debt paydown pace and any refinancing terms on the II-VI-era balance sheet
- Share count guidance - is dilution finally stopping, and is any buyback authorized?
- Semi-cap laser exposure and backlog signal into the next capex cycle
COHR sits at the center of the AI infrastructure narrative right now — datacenter optical interconnect is the exact story the market wants to own, and last week's beat-and-raise plus Lumentum's strong print reinforced the archetype. News flow is dense, positive, and sector-wide: peer moves are dragging COHR up even on days without company-specific catalysts, and analyst tone is described as strongly optimistic with target prices well above spot. That is a real narrative tailwind, not just noise. With beta 2.11 and a risk-on tape (VIX 14, S&P near highs), the macro backdrop leans the wind at this name's back rather than into its face. However, the tape is not one-directional: the stock printed a 14% profit-taking drawdown on Aug 10 and an 8% post-print fade on Aug 13 as investors flagged capex intensity and margin-expansion doubts. That is classic 'narrative running ahead of fundamentals' friction — the story is intense (strong intensity, moderate durability, low cult), and any crack in the AI-capex thesis hits a 2x-beta name hard. Net: tailwind, but a jittery one prone to violent single-day reversals.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether AI-capex commentary from hyperscalers stays intact through next earnings cycle
- Any crack in optical peer prints (LITE, AAOI, Corning) that would break the cohort bid
- Sell-side target revisions post-print — upgrades would extend the tailwind, silence signals fatigue
- VIX regime shift or S&P breakdown that would punish 2x-beta names first
The world is spending on one thing above all: accelerated compute. Optical interconnect is the physical bottleneck of that buildout, and Coherent sits on the scarce input side of it (InP materials plus modules), which is why it is outgrowing an industry whose long-run revenue CAGR is negative and whose margins are compressing. That same positioning is the vulnerability: growth is a derivative of a small number of hyperscaler capex budgets, financed in a high-rate macro. The structural question is not whether AI networking demand exists but whether Coherent's share of the value stays with modules and lasers as architectures integrate — and whether the current ramp is a step-change in installed base or a capex peak. Near-term evidence points to supply-constrained demand; the multi-year evidence is genuinely two-sided.
When we made this prediction on Aug 17, 2026, COHR was $325.83. We expect it to be $320.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $240.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 17, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.