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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Dynatrace Inc. (DT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Dynatrace Inc.
DT NYSEDynatrace Inc. is a software company that provides an AI-powered observability platform for monitoring, analyzing, and automating modern digital systems. The company helps organizations understand the performance of applications, infrastructure, cloud environments, logs, user experience, and security workflows through a unified platform designed to simplify complex IT operations. Dynatrace serves enterprises across industries such as financial services, retail, manufacturing, technology, and the public sector, supporting teams that manage hybrid and multicloud environments. Its product suite includes infrastructure and application observability, digital experience monitoring, log analytics, application security, software delivery, and business analytics. Dynatrace also offers implementation, consulting, and training services to help customers deploy and use its platform effectively. Based in Boston, Massachusetts, Dynatrace plays a significant role in the enterprise software market by helping businesses improve visibility, automate responses, and manage digital operations more efficiently.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics TTM · through Jun 30, 2026
EPS (Diluted): 0.50
Total Equity: $2.45B
Shares: 300,432,333
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.06B
EBITDA: $272.62M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.06B
Revenue: $2.10B
Revenue: $2.10B
Revenue: $2.10B
Total Equity: $2.45B
Tax Rate: 49.4%
Equity: $2.45B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.06B
Current Liabilities: $1.43B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $2.45B
Shares: 300,432,333
Shares: 300,432,333
CapEx: -$27.84M
Shares: 300,432,333
Stock Price: $51.90
Net Income: $151.37M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 7:38pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $929.4M | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $172.9M | $222.9M | $266.5M | $320.2M | $372.2M |
| Gross Profit | $756.6M | $935.6M | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $675.3M | $842.8M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Operating Income | $81.3M | $92.8M | $128.4M | $179.4M | $245.4M |
| Net Income | $52.5M | $108.0M | $154.6M | $483.7M | $162.7M |
| EBITDA | $91.9M | $105.4M | $143.9M | $198.7M | $263.8M |
| EPS | $0.18 | $0.38 | $0.53 | $1.62 | $0.54 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.18 | $0.37 | $0.52 | $1.59 | $0.54 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 7:38pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $463.0M | $555.3M | $779.0M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Total Current Assets | $948.4M | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.1B |
| Total Assets | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.4B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $865.6M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $273.9M | $0 | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Total Equity | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| Retained Earnings | -$461.3M | -$353.4M | -$198.8M | $284.9M | $447.6M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 7:38pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $250.9M | $354.9M | $378.1M | $459.4M | $561.9M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$17.7M | -$21.5M | -$26.5M | -$26.1M | -$32.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $233.2M | $333.3M | $351.7M | $433.3M | $529.7M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$13.2M | $0 | -$57.1M | $-100,000 | -$6.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$120.0M | -$281.1M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | $0 | $0 | -$172.6M | -$478.7M |
| Net Change in Cash | $138.0M | $92.4M | $223.6M | $238.1M | $80.2M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 7:38pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +24.6% | +23.5% | +18.7% | +18.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +23.7% | +24.4% | +18.4% | +19.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | +14.1% | +38.3% | +39.7% | +36.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +105.8% | +43.2% | +212.8% | -66.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +14.6% | +36.6% | +38.1% | +32.8% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The numbers tell a cleaner story than the models give them credit for, and the models also miss where the real risk sits. Revenue is growing 16.2% year-over-year in the June 2026 quarter ($554.5M vs. $477.3M a year earlier), down from 19.4% in March 2026 and 18.2% in December 2025. That deceleration is the single most important data point in this file, and it contradicts the pre-flight's "AI-inflection" thesis that NRR will step from 110% to 120%+. If Davis AI were already driving a step-change in expansion revenue, I would expect to see growth re-accelerating in the last two quarters, not grinding down from 19% to 16%. The AI story is a forward-looking TAM argument, not a backward-looking earnings fact, and the market is paying for it at 7.44x trailing revenue. Operating margin, to be fair, is genuinely expanding — 8.7% in FY2022 to 12.1% in FY2026 — and the 26.2% FCF margin ($529.7M on $2.02B revenue) with zero debt and $1.10B in cash is a fortress. That balance sheet alone is worth roughly $3.80 per share at the current 290M share count, which is a real floor the synthesis's $34 fair value barely acknowledges.
The valuation synthesis lands at $34–$39 composite, calling the stock 25% overvalued, and I think that's too punitive. A simple DCF with $530M FCF growing at 16% for five years, 3% terminal, 10% discount rate, plus $1.1B cash, yields roughly $48 per share. At 18% growth it's closer to $53. The synthesis's $34 implies a 2.6x revenue multiple, which is the multiple you'd assign to a 5% growth company with flat margins — not to a zero-debt SaaS business printing 26% FCF. The 103x P/E that anchors the "overvalued" read is a data artifact: TTM net income of $151.4M is depressed by the 3.3% and 6.6% margins in the last two quarters, while the December 2024 quarter's 82.9% margin (a one-time tax or asset-sale item) inflated the prior-year base and makes the "recent_earnings_yoy: -69.3%" figure in the momentum block meaningless. Strip out the one-timers and the real earnings trajectory is roughly flat-to-modestly-growing, not collapsing. The thesis evaluation's -4 score is closer to the truth than the synthesis's -24.8% gap, and I'd nudge it to roughly -2: the stock is at the upper edge of fair, not 25% above it.
Where I part with the models is on the contrarian case they underweight. The narrative layer correctly identifies the Datadog competitive threat and the "jack-of-all-trades" risk, but it treats the AI-observability TAM expansion as a moderate, moderate-durability story. I'd argue the TAM math is more powerful than the current revenue trajectory suggests: every enterprise AI inference workload generates orders of magnitude more telemetry than a traditional microservice, and the consolidation pitch (one platform replacing Datadog + Splunk + CloudWatch + New Relic) is a genuine procurement simplification that CIOs will buy in 2027-2028 budget cycles. If NRR does tick up even 3-4 points over the next two quarters — visible in the September 2026 print — revenue growth re-accelerates to 19-20% and the 7.4x multiple compresses to 6x on forward numbers, making $52 cheap. The risk is the opposite: the AI story stays narrative, Datadog keeps winning developer mindshare at 25%+ growth, and Dynatrace's 16% growth looks like a mature 6x-revenue company, where $40 is the ceiling. The insider data is noise — 519 to 4,111-share option exercises on a 290M-share float tell you nothing about conviction. What's missing from this file and would settle the debate: NRR, net dollar retention by segment, AI-specific revenue line, and win/loss data against Datadog. Without those, the AI premium is unverified.
The classification as "high_growth_profitable" at 0.73 confidence is a half-step too generous; 16% and decelerating is "moderate-growth, high-FCF-quality," and the profitability is real in FCF terms but thin in GAAP net margin (7.2% TTM). The macro headwind flag is appropriate — enterprise IT budgets are not expanding, and a 16% growth SaaS company in a flat-budget environment is fighting for every point of NRR. I commit to "fairly valued, upper end of the range" rather than the synthesis's "overvalued." The stock is not a buy at $51.90 on the current trajectory, but it is not the 25%-overvalued value trap the synthesis implies. A pullback to $42-45, or a quarterly print showing NRR above 112% and growth back above 18%, would change the calculus.
GPT Reading
Grok Reading
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Dynatrace is a high-quality software business on a clear upward trajectory. Revenue grew from $987M in 2022 to $2.10B in the latest TTM, with gross margins locked at 81.4% across all four years. Operating margin expanded steadily from 8.0% to 12.1%, demonstrating real operating leverage as the platform scales. Free cash flow reached $570.6M (roughly 27% of revenue) and is growing every year, while the balance sheet carries $1.06B of net cash with no debt. The forensic checks are clean: Beneish M of -2.74, Altman Z of 6.41, negative accruals of -7.9% of assets, and an OCF-to-net-income ratio of 3.59x all confirm that reported earnings UNDERSTATE the cash reality rather than overstate it. The $493M-to-$151M net-income swing between the 2025 and 2026 TTM windows is almost certainly driven by non-cash items (SBC, amortization of acquired intangibles) rather than any deterioration in the underlying business, since FCF actually rose over the same period.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 10-K segment and customer-concentration detail: what share of revenue comes from the top 5 or 10 customers, and is any single customer above 10%?
- Convertible or warrant overhang: confirm the $1.06B net-cash figure is not offset by unrecorded derivative liabilities or embedded conversion features.
- Acquisition amortization schedule: quantify how much of the net-income-to-FCF gap is driven by intangible amortization from Cetus and other deals, and when those charges roll off.
- SBC grant structure: vesting schedules, performance conditions, and whether the 14.4% SBC ratio is trending up or down as revenue scales.
- Net revenue retention and logo growth rates from the 10-K or earnings call to confirm the 18% growth is broad-based rather than concentrated in a few large deals.
At $51.90, Dynatrace sits above the entire e2e fair-value range. The composite FV is $34.00, the signal-adjusted FV is $39.05, and even the most generous single method (DCF at $45.60) lands 12% below the current price. The anchored-PE method at $22.53 and the EPV floor at $10.32 reinforce that the market is paying a substantial premium over what normalized earnings and cash flow support. The -25% upside figure from the synthesis is, in fact, a -25% downside to fair value.
The business is genuinely strong: 81% gross margins, ~$570M annual FCF, near-zero dilution, and high earnings quality (score 3, no haircut warranted). But quality raises the DESERVED value ceiling; it does not justify paying 26x trailing FCF for a platform whose growth is decelerating while Datadog accelerates. The AI-inference bull case is real, yet the market has already bid the stock to a level that assumes sustained double-digit growth with no competitive erosion. That is a heroic assumption, not a base case.
In short, the price embeds the platform-monopoly thesis and the AI tailwind. What has to go right to justify $51.90 is that Dynatrace outgrows Datadog, holds its 81% margin through AI-driven price pressure, and converts its enterprise moat into accelerating revenue. None of that is impossible, but the current price leaves zero margin of safety for any of it to underdeliver.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Next two quarters of NRR and net-new ARR growth - is the deceleration stabilizing or accelerating?
- Datadog vs Dynatrace win-rate data in enterprise deals (channel-partner disclosures, Gartner/Forrester notes)
- SBC as % of revenue trend - is the 81% gross margin holding after SBC, or is the operating margin story being flattered?
- AI-specific revenue line or segment disclosure - is the AI tailwind real revenue or still narrative?
- Backlog / RPO growth rate to confirm the pipeline is not stalling
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.