Business Description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 4:17pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 8.93
Total Equity: $4.07B
Shares: 50,793,650
Total Debt: $3.77B
Cash: $4.25B
EBITDA: $976.00M
Total Debt: $3.77B
Cash: $4.25B
Revenue: $45.43B
Revenue: $45.43B
Revenue: $45.43B
Total Equity: $4.07B
Tax Rate: 19.9%
Equity: $4.07B
Total Debt: $3.77B
Cash: $4.25B
Current Liabilities: $7.37B
Long-Term Debt: $3.77B
Total Debt: $3.77B
Total Equity: $4.07B
Shares: 50,793,650
Shares: 50,793,650
CapEx: -$101.00M
Shares: 50,793,650
Stock Price: $190.86
Net Income: $472.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:21pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.8B | $32.0B | $34.1B | $40.7B | $45.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $24.5B | $28.0B | $29.7B | $35.9B | $41.4B |
| Gross Profit | $3.3B | $3.9B | $4.3B | $4.7B | $4.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.3B |
| Operating Income | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $781.0M |
| Net Income | $659.0M | $792.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $472.0M |
| EBITDA | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $976.0M |
| EPS | $11.40 | $13.70 | $18.71 | $20.52 | $8.93 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $4.4B | $4.0B | $4.8B | $4.7B | $4.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $10.1B | $10.1B | $12.5B | $12.8B | $12.4B |
| Total Assets | $12.2B | $12.3B | $14.9B | $15.6B | $15.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.0B | $6.9B | $8.2B | $7.9B | $7.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $3.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $9.6B | $9.4B | $10.7B | $11.1B | $11.5B |
| Total Equity | $2.6B | $3.0B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $4.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.9B | $4.1B | $3.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:21pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.1B | $773.0M | $1.7B | $644.0M | -$535.0M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$77.0M | -$91.0M | -$84.0M | -$100.0M | -$101.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | $682.0M | $1.6B | $544.0M | -$636.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$129.0M | -$134.0M | -$3.0M | -$344.0M | -$245.0M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$128.0M | -$400.0M | -$60.0M | -$1.0B | -$1.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | $283.0M | -$458.0M | $860.0M | -$167.0M | -$393.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$47.7B $45.4B – $52.9B
|
$49.8B $49.7B – $50.0B
|
$50.3B $48.0B – $53.3B
|
$52.6B $50.2B – $55.8B
|
| EBITDA |
$1.9B $1.8B – $2.1B
|
$2.0B $2.0B – $2.0B
|
$2.0B $1.9B – $2.2B
|
$2.1B $2.0B – $2.3B
|
| Net Income |
$463.3M $414.5M – $601.9M
|
$540.6M $480.3M – $887.0M
|
$881.6M $829.8M – $950.6M
|
$1.1B $1.0B – $1.2B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:21pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +15.1% | +6.6% | +19.3% | +11.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +19.7% | +10.4% | +9.3% | -14.0% |
| Operating Income Growth | +35.4% | +13.9% | +8.5% | -54.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +20.2% | +37.8% | +8.1% | -60.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +19.8% | +29.3% | +8.5% | -48.4% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:18pm (5d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | HEBERT MAURICE | S-Sale | 600.00 | $191.55 | $114,930 |
| 2026-05-11 | Barlow Jeff D. | S-Sale | 17,811.00 | $186.12 | $3.3M |
| 2026-05-06 | SOISTMAN FRANCIS S JR | A-Award | 170.00 | $197.44 | $33,565 |
| 2026-05-06 | SOISTMAN FRANCIS S JR | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-04-01 | GROHOWSKI LEO P | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lockhart Stephen H | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | ORLANDO STEVEN J | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | WOLF DALE B | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schapiro Richard M | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | BRASIER BARBARA L | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-04-01 | ROMNEY RONNA | A-Award | 405.00 | $135.82 | $55,007 |
| 2026-03-12 | ROMNEY RONNA | S-Sale | 506.00 | $146.92 | $74,342 |
| 2026-03-01 | Zubretsky Joseph M | A-Award | 66,417.00 | $145.75 | $9.7M |
| 2026-03-01 | Zubretsky Joseph M | F-InKind | 8,597.00 | $154.05 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-01 | Keim Mark Lowell | A-Award | 26,073.00 | $145.75 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-01 | Keim Mark Lowell | F-InKind | 2,308.00 | $154.05 | $355,547 |
| 2026-03-01 | WOYS JAMES | A-Award | 17,016.00 | $145.75 | $2.5M |
| 2026-03-01 | WOYS JAMES | F-InKind | 1,313.00 | $154.05 | $202,268 |
| 2026-03-01 | HEBERT MAURICE | A-Award | 2,058.00 | $145.75 | $299,954 |
Narrative Economics
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Reconciling the two lenses: the quality score of +11 (Mixed) tells me this is a competent, capital-disciplined operator that just got punched in the face — clean accruals, fortress liquidity, real share shrink, but structurally ~4% peak margins in a policy-hostage spread business that can and just did go to ~1.7%. The valuation score of +22 (Modestly Cheap, fair below $165) tells me at $191 I'm getting maybe 15-25% to a sober normalized fair value of $230-250. That is not enough margin of safety for a business whose earnings can halve in a single rate cycle. Great-business-at-a-fair-price math only works when the business is genuinely great; here it's merely solid, so I need the price discount to do more work.
My play: open a quarter-sized starter here (roughly 25% of target weight) just to have skin in the game and force me to do the work on rate-update disclosures. I do NOT scale in on strength. I add aggressively — taking it to a full position — only if (a) price hits the $160-165 zone, which gives me a real 35-40% gap to deserved value, or (b) management prints a quarter showing MLR rolling over with confirmed rate-update tailwinds, even if price has moved. If the stock rips to $220+ without spread-healing evidence, I trim the starter and move on — I'm not paying for a rerate on hope. If MLR deteriorates further and 2026 rate updates disappoint, I cut, because in a 4%-margin spread business the downside on a second leg lower is brutal.
Molina has compounded revenue from $27.8B (2021) to $45.4B (2025) — a ~13% CAGR — while shrinking diluted share count from 58.6M to 50.8M (-3.5% CAGR) and buying back ~5.7x its tiny SBC load (~0.1% of revenue). On structure, this looks like a disciplined mature earner: net cash $482M, $4.25B liquid, Altman Z 4.32, Beneish M -1.92, OCF/NI 1.03x, accruals -1.2% of assets — no mechanical earnings-quality red flags, and management is a net buyer of its own stock.
But 2025 is ugly and not a rounding error. Operating margin collapsed from 4.6% (2023) and 4.2% (2024) to 1.7%, net income fell from $1.18B to $472M (-60%), gross margin compressed 270bps to 9.0%, and FCF swung from +$544M to -$636M. For a government-payer MCO, this pattern screams a medical-loss-ratio (MLR) shock — rate inadequacy versus utilization, likely tied to Medicaid redeterminations leaving a sicker risk pool and/or Medicare Advantage cost trend. The earnings-quality screens look clean precisely because the pain is real — cash followed earnings down, not up.
Durability is real (scale, government contracts, capital-light balance sheet), but moat is thin: this is a regulated spread business where one bad pricing cycle erases years of margin. Insider tape is not encouraging on the margin — Barlow's $3.3M sale and Zubretsky's large award/withholding dominate; the headline 'net insider buying' is misleading given mixed P/S activity.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- 2025 MLR by segment (Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace) — is the margin hit concentrated or broad?
- Management's 2026 rate-update guidance from state Medicaid agencies and CMS — is rate adequacy restoring?
- Working capital drivers of the -$636M FCF — medical claims payable timing vs true economic loss
- Contract concentration: top states as % of premium revenue and any RFP losses/wins
- Reserve adequacy — IBNR/days claims payable trend; any prior-period development releases masking core trend
- Acquisition integration (e.g., ConnectiCare, Bright Health MA) and goodwill exposure
Molina trades at ~$191 with a ~$9.9B market cap against a business that, even after the 2025 margin reset, is a scaled Medicaid/MA operator with high earnings quality, disciplined share count, and durable top-line growth. The e2e synthesis flags 'Reasonable Premium' — meaning fair value sits modestly above price, not multiples above it. On normalized ~4% peak managed-care margins applied to a growing revenue base (~$40B+ run-rate), mid-cycle EPS should rebuild toward the $20+ range, which at a 12-14x regulated-payor multiple supports a deserved value roughly $230-260 — call it ~20-30% above today's quote.
The catch: 2025 earnings collapsed because pricing lagged cost trend, and Medicaid is a policy-hostage spread business. The market is pricing in a real-but-not-catastrophic earnings reset and demanding proof that rate updates restore the spread. That's a reasonable thing to discount. The high earnings-quality signal means I don't need to haircut reported numbers — what you see is what you get — so the deserved value isn't artificially inflated by accruals. Net: a modest, not deep, discount. Fairly valued with a small lean cheap; I'd want closer to $165 to call it a clear buy with margin of safety for the policy/rate-cycle risk.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 2026 state rate update visibility and management's MLR guidance trajectory
- Whether Q4/Q1 medical cost trend is stabilizing or still running hot
- Medicare Advantage star ratings and bid posture for 2026
- Any one-time items (prior-period development, premium deficiency reserves) distorting trailing EPS
- FCF conversion recovery — 2025 reversal needs to prove transitory