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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
JAZZ NASDAQJazz Pharmaceuticals plc is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing medicines for serious and often underserved conditions. Its portfolio includes treatments for sleep disorders, epilepsy, oncology, and other specialized therapeutic areas, with products such as Xywav, Epidiolex, Zepzelca, Rylaze, and Vyxeos supporting patients who may have limited treatment options. Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc works across the United States, Europe, and other international markets, serving healthcare providers, hospitals, and patients through prescription medicines and specialty care solutions. The company emphasizes rare disease and oncology medicines, making it an important participant in the global specialty pharmaceutical market. Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc maintains a focused business model centered on identifying, developing, and commercializing targeted therapies for complex medical needs.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics TTM · through Jun 30, 2026
EPS (Diluted): 14.32
Total Equity: $4.80B
Shares: 65,702,000
Total Debt: $4.35B
Cash: $1.62B
EBITDA: $934.36M
Total Debt: $4.35B
Cash: $1.62B
Revenue: $4.60B
Revenue: $4.60B
Revenue: $4.60B
Total Equity: $4.80B
Tax Rate: -29.3%
Equity: $4.80B
Total Debt: $4.35B
Cash: $1.62B
Current Liabilities: $2.23B
Long-Term Debt: $3.34B
Total Debt: $4.35B
Total Equity: $4.80B
Shares: 65,702,000
Shares: 65,702,000
CapEx: -$69.75M
Shares: 65,702,000
Stock Price: $246.81
Net Income: $940.75M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 1:49pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.1B | $3.7B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $2.9B | $3.7B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $4.7B |
| Operating Income | $170.3M | -$65.5M | $578.6M | $716.6M | -$430.2M |
| Net Income | -$329.7M | -$224.1M | $414.8M | $560.1M | -$356.1M |
| EBITDA | $197.0M | -$35.2M | $609.0M | $749.4M | -$388.6M |
| EPS | $-5.52 | $-3.58 | $6.55 | $9.06 | $-5.84 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-5.52 | $-3.58 | $6.10 | $8.65 | $-5.84 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 1:49pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $591.4M | $881.5M | $1.5B | $2.4B | $1.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $2.6B | $2.6B | $3.4B | $4.6B | $4.2B |
| Total Assets | $12.3B | $10.8B | $11.4B | $12.0B | $11.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $809.3M | $933.2M | $1.5B | $1.0B | $2.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.0B | $5.7B | $5.1B | $6.1B | $4.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $8.3B | $7.7B | $7.7B | $7.9B | $7.3B |
| Total Equity | $4.0B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $4.1B | $4.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $830.2M | $733.6M | $878.7M | $1.1B | $646.2M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 1:49pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $778.5M | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$27.6M | -$29.0M | -$24.0M | -$38.1M | -$58.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | $750.9M | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$6.2B | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $1.5B | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $-54,000 | -$269.8M | -$311.4M | -$125.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$466.3M | $290.0M | $624.8M | $906.6M | -$1.0B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026 1:49pm (30d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +18.3% | +4.8% | +6.1% | +4.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | -138.5% | +983.0% | +23.9% | -160.0% |
| Net Income Growth | +32.0% | +285.1% | +35.0% | -163.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | -117.9% | +1,828.7% | +23.1% | -151.9% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The single most important number in this file is the Q2 2025 net loss of $718.5M, which drags the full-year 2025 GAAP result to a $356M loss and makes the company look like a broken franchise. It isn't. Strip out that one quarter and the trailing-twelve-month picture is $940.7M in net income on $4.61B of revenue, a 20.4% net margin, and $1.30B in free cash flow — a 28% FCF margin that is genuinely elite for a commercial-stage pharma company. The last four quarters have produced net margins of 16%, 27.4%, 17%, and 22.3%, with revenue climbing from $1.05B to $1.21B. The "structural loss" bear case in the thesis evaluation is, in my read, a misread of a one-time charge (impairment or litigation, almost certainly) dressed up as a trend. The classification model's "mature_earner" label at 0.9 confidence undersells the volatility: a company that swings from -$718M to +$293M in two consecutive quarters is not a steady annuity, it's a company with lumpy P&L and a product mix that can be disrupted by a single FDA action.
Now the valuation. At $246.81 and a $16.02B market cap, Jazz trades at 17.0x TTM earnings, 3.5x TTM sales, and 19.0x EBITDA. The valuation synthesis model produces a composite fair value of $388.38 and a "signal-adjusted" target of $470.10, implying 90% upside. I reject both numbers outright. A $470 price tag means a $30B market cap, roughly 32x TTM earnings and 6.5x sales, for a company whose revenue CAGR is 8.5%, whose recent quarterly revenue growth is decelerating (the secondary signals flag this explicitly), and whose crown jewel — Xywav, a Schedule III controlled substance representing well over half of revenue — carries a patent-erosion clock and a regulatory tail risk that a standard DCF does not adequately penalize. The reverse-DCF observation in the thesis evaluation is the most honest number in the entire file: the market is implying roughly -9.5% annual FCF decline over five years. Given that Xywav faces generic entry and the oncology portfolio (Zepzelca, Rylaze, Vyxeos) consists of small, niche, hard-to-scale products in early ramp, a flat-to-modestly-declining FCF trajectory is not a bearish assumption — it is the base case. The 17x multiple is reasonable if you believe the $940M TTM earnings are sustainable; it is rich if you believe they are the peak.
The contrarian bull case deserves steelmanning: the market is applying a structural risk premium for Xywav regulatory concentration that has never actually materialized, and the oncology pipeline is being valued at essentially zero on top of a $1.3B FCF machine. The balance sheet, while levered at $5.36B total debt against $1.39B cash, is serviceable — net debt of roughly $4B against $1.3B FCF is about 3x, and the current ratio of 1.78 provides adequate liquidity. The 6,000-share insider sale on 2026-09-01 (roughly $1.5M at current prices) is minor, and the cluster of "F-InKind" transactions on 2026-08-31 look like corporate-action transfers rather than open-market selling, though the absence of named insiders in the data file makes it impossible to confirm. What I cannot ignore is the revenue deceleration: the quarterly print went $1.20B → $1.07B → $1.21B, which is noisy and does not show a clean acceleration, and the 8.5% revenue CAGR is unremarkable for a company the market is paying 3.5x sales.
The narrative layer calls this a "fallen-angel" with moderate intensity, but the stock is within 7% of its 52-week high, which is the opposite of a fallen angel in price terms. What the narrative gets right is the core tension: the cash flows are real, but the market is pricing the tail risk of a single controlled-substance product dominating the P&L, and that discount is rational, not emotional. The thesis score of -3, with bull mass 73.3 against bear mass 75.9, is the most calibrated output in the file and the one I would anchor to. The synthesis model's "undervalued" verdict with a 90% upside target is a DCF artifact — it is extrapolating growth that the product mix does not support and discounting a regulatory risk that the DCF framework cannot capture. At $247, the stock is fairly valued: you are paying 17x for a company with 12.6% revenue growth, a one-product concentration risk, and a pipeline that is optionality, not a growth engine. I would not buy here, and I would not short here. The entry point for a meaningful position is below $200, where the multiple compresses to roughly 14x TTM earnings and the Xywav risk is more fully priced.
GPT Reading
Grok Reading
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Jazz Pharmaceuticals generates $4.60B in revenue (2026 TTM) with a 19.5% operating margin and $1.59B in free cash flow, up from $921M in 2022. The FCF trajectory is the most reliable signal here: it has been positive and growing in every single year of the five-year window, which is a genuine strength for a biotech. Revenue has compounded at roughly 10% per year, suggesting a durable product franchise in central nervous system therapeutics. However, the P&L is extremely volatile: operating margin swung from 14.3% (2024) to -7.1% (2025) to 19.5% (2026), and net income oscillated between a $404.8M loss and a $940.8M profit. This pattern is consistent with large non-cash charges, R&D timing, or one-time items that distort the income statement without affecting cash generation. The balance sheet carries $2.73B of net debt against $1.62B of liquid cash, and the Altman Z sits at 2.54 in the grey zone. The company is self-funding and does not need external capital, but the debt is a real constraint rather than a cushion.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- What drove the 2025 operating loss and 2026 recovery: one-time charges, R&D capitalization timing, or a genuine product-level swing? Check the 10-K MD&A and segment notes.
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants: with $2.73B net debt, what is the refinancing runway and are there restrictive covenants that could constrain operations?
- Product mix and patent cliff exposure: what percentage of revenue comes from the top 1-2 CNS products and when do key exclusivities expire?
- R&D pipeline stage and capital intensity: is the P&L volatility driven by late-stage trial costs that will normalize, or is it structural?
- Customer concentration: pharma distribution is often concentrated in a few wholesalers; verify top-5 customer share from the 10-K.
At $246.81, Jazz trades at a 37% discount to the e2e composite fair value of $388.38 and a 48% discount to the signal-adjusted figure of $470.10. The DCF output of $566.16 is 2.3x the price and almost certainly overstates the terminal value of a single-product CNS franchise with a Schedule III controlled-substance overhang; I would discount that method heavily. The EPV floor of $32.83 confirms the company is worth far more than its tangible assets, which is expected for an IP-driven pharma. The composite of $388 is the most defensible anchor, and even after applying a 10-15% regulatory-risk haircut for the FDA tightening scenario, the deserved value sits around $330-350, implying 34-42% upside from here. Earnings quality is good (score 1), so no further haircut is warranted, and the Company-Quality lens confirms a cash-generating, self-funding business with improving FCF. The $2.73B net debt is already embedded in the FCF-based methods, so it is not a hidden overhang. The 'fallen angel' narrative is credible: the market appears to be pricing in FDA regulatory doom that has not materialized, while the Xywav franchise continues to generate $2B+ in revenue with zero direct competition. That said, the Schedule III status is a genuine binary risk, not a hypothetical, and the pipeline is a collection of small rare-disease products rather than a second $2B franchise. This is a real discount, not a once-a-decade dislocation.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- FDA controlled-substance scheduling status of Xywav - any pending or proposed reclassification actions in the Federal Register or FDA docket
- Xywav revenue trajectory and net pricing trends in the latest 10-Q to confirm the $2B+ run-rate is holding or growing
- Epidiolex generic erosion timeline - when does the first generic competitor launch and what is the expected revenue cliff
- Pipeline commercialization milestones for Zepzelca, Rylaze, and Vyxeos - are these generating meaningful revenue or still pre-commercial
- Debt maturity schedule and refinancing risk on the $2.73B net debt - any maturities within 18 months
- Management commentary on Xywav market share and competitive landscape in the latest earnings call
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This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.