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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed
Archived report · generated Jun 3, 2026 · 8:52 PM · models: linear-pipeline · cost: $0.319
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The Clorox Company

CLX NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Oakland, CA 94612-1888, United States IPO 1983 thecloroxcompany.com Updated Jun 3, 6:13pm
Price
$88.53
Market Cap
$10.7B
Employees
7,400
Beta
0.58
Avg Volume
2,767,844
CEO
Linda J. Rendle
Business Description

The Clorox Company manufactures and markets consumer and professional products worldwide. It operates through four segments: Health and Wellness, Household, Lifestyle, and International. The Health and Wellness segment offers cleaning products, such as laundry additives and home care products primarily under the Clorox, Clorox2, Scentiva, Pine-Sol, Liquid-Plumr, Tilex, and Formula 409 brands; professional cleaning and disinfecting products under the CloroxPro and Clorox Healthcare brands; professional food service products under the Hidden Valley brand; and vitamins, minerals and supplement products under the RenewLife, Natural Vitality, NeoCell, and Rainbow Light brands in the United States. The Household segment provides cat litter products under the Fresh Step and Scoop Away brands; bags and wraps under the Glad brand; and grilling products under the Kingsford brand in the United States. The Lifestyle segment offers dressings, dips, seasonings, and sauces primarily under the Hidden Valley brand; natural personal care products under the Burt's Bees brand; and water-filtration products under the Brita brand in the United States. The International segment provides laundry additives; home care products; water-filtration systems; digestive health products; grilling products; cat litter products; food products; bags and wraps; natural personal care products; and professional cleaning and disinfecting products internationally primarily under the Clorox, Ayudin, Clorinda, Poett, Pine-Sol, Glad, Brita, RenewLife, Ever Clean and Burt's Bees brands. The Clorox Company sells its products primarily through mass retailers; grocery outlets; warehouse clubs; dollar stores; home hardware centers; drug, pet and military stores; third-party and owned e-commerce channels; and distributors, as well as a direct sales force The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 1:51pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:47pm (9d ago)
$88.53
-1.10 (-1.23%)
Day Range
$88.17 – $89.46
52-Week Range
$84.70 – $132.03
50-Day MA
$97.34
200-Day MA
$109.58
Volume
1,806,151.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $83.00
Consensus $105.50
High $139.00
(57 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 120,921,000.00
Float 120,509,009.00
Free Float 99.7%
High free float — 99.7% of shares trade freely, ~0.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:36pm (9d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 1:50pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
14.21
Stock Price: $88.53
EPS (Diluted): 6.56
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
46.20
Stock Price: $88.53
Total Equity: $321.00M
Shares: 124,287,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.68
Market Cap: $10.71B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $167.00M
EBITDA: $1.39B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$17.5B
Market Cap: $10.71B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $167.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
45.2%
Gross Profit: $3.21B
Revenue: $7.10B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
16.6%
Operating Income: $1.18B
Revenue: $7.10B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
11.4%
Net Income: $810.00M
Revenue: $7.10B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
2,826.2%
Net Income: $810.00M
Total Equity: $321.00M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
16.7%
Operating Income: $1.18B
Tax Rate: 23.6%
Equity: $321.00M
Total Debt: $2.49B
Cash: $167.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.84
Current Assets: $1.61B
Current Liabilities: $1.92B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
7.75
Short-Term Debt: $4.00M
Long-Term Debt: $2.48B
Total Debt: $2.49B
Total Equity: $321.00M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$57.16
Revenue: $7.10B
Shares: 124,287,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$2.58
Total Equity: $321.00M
Shares: 124,287,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.12
Operating CF: $981.00M
CapEx: -$220.00M
Shares: 124,287,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
4.1%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $88.53
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $810.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 1:50pm
Compares CLX against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 1:54:16 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $7.3B $7.1B $7.4B $7.1B $7.1B
Cost of Revenue $4.1B $4.6B $4.5B $4.0B $3.9B
Gross Profit $3.2B $2.5B $2.9B $3.0B $3.2B
Operating Expenses $2.0B $1.8B $2.1B $2.3B $2.0B
Operating Income $1.2B $719.0M $823.0M $723.0M $1.2B
Net Income $710.0M $462.0M $149.0M $280.0M $810.0M
EBITDA $1.2B $937.0M $564.0M $723.0M $1.4B
EPS $5.65 $3.75 $1.21 $2.25 $6.56
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:29pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $319.0M $183.0M $367.0M $202.0M $167.0M
Total Current Assets $1.8B $1.7B $1.8B $1.6B $1.6B
Total Assets $6.3B $6.2B $5.9B $5.8B $5.6B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $1.8B $1.9B $1.6B $1.9B
Long-Term Debt $2.5B $2.5B $2.5B $2.5B $2.5B
Total Liabilities $5.7B $5.4B $5.6B $5.3B $5.1B
Total Equity $411.0M $556.0M $220.0M $328.0M $321.0M
Retained Earnings $1.0B $1.0B $583.0M $250.0M $432.0M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:36pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.3B $786.0M $1.2B $695.0M $981.0M
Capital Expenditure -$331.0M -$251.0M -$228.0M -$212.0M -$220.0M
Free Cash Flow $945.0M $535.0M $930.0M $483.0M $761.0M
Acquisitions (net) -$85.0M $0 $0 $17.0M $128.0M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$905.0M -$25.0M $0 $0 -$332.0M
Net Change in Cash -$555.0M -$138.0M $182.0M -$161.0M -$37.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:29pm (9d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $7.5B
$7.4B – $7.7B
$7.8B
$7.8B – $7.8B
$8.0B
$7.8B – $8.1B
$8.2B
$8.0B – $8.3B
EBITDA $1.6B
$1.6B – $1.6B
$1.6B
$1.6B – $1.6B
$1.7B
$1.7B – $1.7B
$1.7B
$1.7B – $1.8B
Net Income $771.8M
$723.7M – $796.8M
$814.2M
$743.4M – $992.8M
$866.7M
$842.7M – $881.9M
$907.8M
$882.7M – $923.7M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -3.2% +4.0% -4.0% +0.2%
Gross Profit Growth -20.4% +14.3% +4.8% +5.4%
Operating Income Growth -41.3% +14.5% -12.2% +62.8%
Net Income Growth -34.9% -67.7% +87.9% +189.3%
EBITDA Growth -22.6% -39.8% +28.2% +91.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm (9d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-05 Breber Pierre R P-Purchase 5,000.00 $85.82 $429,124
2026-04-01 Bellet Luc F-InKind 244.00 $103.63 $25,286
2026-03-31 WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER J A-Award 265.37 $0.00 $0
2026-02-13 WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER J A-Award 212.64 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 WEINER RUSSELL J A-Award 325.68 $0.00 $0
2026-02-13 WEINER RUSSELL J A-Award 172.36 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Shattock Matthew J A-Award 506.61 $0.00 $0
2026-02-13 Shattock Matthew J A-Award 191.29 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Breber Pierre R A-Award 325.68 $0.00 $0
2026-02-13 Breber Pierre R A-Award 27.05 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Plaines Stephanie A-Award 265.37 $0.00 $0
2026-02-13 Plaines Stephanie A-Award 72.73 $0.00 $0
2026-03-13 Hyder Chris T F-InKind 41.00 $108.73 $4,458
2026-03-13 Grier Stacey F-InKind 32.00 $108.73 $3,479
2025-12-31 WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER J A-Award 272.74 $0.00 $0
2025-12-31 WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER J A-Award 1,637.86 $0.00 $0
2025-11-06 WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER J A-Award 227.03 $0.00 $0
2025-12-31 WEINER RUSSELL J A-Award 334.72 $0.00 $0
2025-12-31 WEINER RUSSELL J A-Award 1,637.86 $0.00 $0
2025-11-06 WEINER RUSSELL J A-Award 179.14 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:29pm (9d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-04-22 $1.24 2026-02-24 2026-04-22 2026-05-08
2026-01-28 $1.24 2025-11-18 2026-01-28 2026-02-13
2025-10-22 $1.24 2025-09-16 2025-10-22 2025-11-06
2025-08-13 $1.24 2025-07-30 2025-08-13 2025-08-29
2025-04-23 $1.22 2025-02-25 2025-04-23 2025-05-09
2025-01-29 $1.22 2024-11-19 2025-01-29 2025-02-14
2024-10-23 $1.22 2024-09-17 2024-10-23 2024-11-07
2024-08-14 $1.22 2024-07-30 2024-08-14 2024-08-30
2024-04-23 $1.20 2024-02-28 2024-04-24 2024-05-10
2024-01-23 $1.20 2023-11-14 2024-01-24 2024-02-09
2023-10-24 $1.20 2023-09-20 2023-10-25 2023-11-09
2023-08-08 $1.20 2023-07-27 2023-08-09 2023-08-25
2023-04-25 $1.18 2023-02-14 2023-04-26 2023-05-12
2023-01-24 $1.18 2022-11-15 2023-01-25 2023-02-10
2022-10-25 $1.18 2022-09-20 2022-10-26 2022-11-10
2022-07-26 $1.18 2022-07-12 2022-07-27 2022-08-12
2022-04-26 $1.16 2022-02-15 2022-04-27 2022-05-13
2022-01-25 $1.16 2021-11-16 2022-01-26 2022-02-11
2021-10-26 $1.16 2021-09-21 2021-10-27 2021-11-10
2021-07-27 $1.16 2021-06-02 2021-07-28 2021-08-13
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CLX.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 13:54:50
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued income holding, not a bargain — fair value $85-92, current $94 offers ~4% dividend plus low-single-digit growth; pass unless it dips below $85.

Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue is essentially flat at $1.67B for three of the last four quarters, with the Sep-2025 dip to $1.43B looking like a genuine demand/inventory air pocket (the cyberattack hangover) rather than seasonality — fiscal Q1 2024 was $1.76B, so that's a real ~19% YoY drop. The rebound to $1.67B in Dec-2025 and Mar-2026 with margins recovering to 9.4% and 11.2% suggests stabilization, not acceleration. The "earnings CAGR 133%" and "earnings YoY 189%" in the momentum block are arithmetic artifacts of comparing against a depressed FY2023 base ($149M NI) — useless as a forward signal. Real underlying picture: ~$7.1B revenue plateau for five straight years, gross margin recovered from 36% (FY23) to 45% (FY25), which is the actual story. That margin recovery is mostly done.

On the balance sheet, the missing debt figure is a problem the models glossed over. P/B of 46x and ROE of 28% with only $167M cash on a $7.1B revenue base implies a highly levered, buyback-shrunken equity base — Clorox carries roughly $2.5B of long-term debt and negative tangible book. Current ratio 0.84 is tight but normal for staples. FCF of $761M on an $11.4B market cap is a ~6.7% FCF yield, and the 4.06% dividend yield consumes roughly $500M, leaving thin cushion for buybacks or debt paydown if margins slip 200bps. The insider "P-Purchase" of 5,000 shares (~$470K) on May 5 is a single small open-market buy — the "Significant Insider Buying" tag is overstated; the rest are routine awards and tax withholdings.

Where I disagree with the model stack: the Market Forces "value trap" call and the Synthesis "slight upside" call can't both be right, and the Narrative layer's framing that fundamentals do all the work at $92 fair value is the most honest read. But I'd push back on the fair value itself. A flat-revenue staples business with 11% net margins, 6.7% FCF yield, and a 4% dividend at 15x TTM earnings is priced roughly fairly for what it is — but TTM earnings benefit from the Jun-2025 quarter's $332M print (16.7% margin), which looks like a peak, not a run-rate. Normalize to ~$700M NI and you get 16x forward, which is full for a no-growth name. The bear case the Market Forces model articulates (private label share loss, secular category decline in surface cleaners post-COVID) is real and not yet visible in the print because pricing has masked volume softness — that's the contrarian flag the models underweight.

Net: I dissent mildly from the synthesis "slight upside" and side closer to Market Forces, but without the value-trap drama. This is a fairly-priced mature dividend payer where the margin recovery tailwind is largely captured at $94, and the next 12 months depend on whether volume stabilizes or grinds lower. The 29% drawdown from highs already prices in skepticism; further downside requires an actual volume/margin disappointment, which the Q3 FY26 print at 11.2% margin doesn't yet show. Upside requires either (a) a real revenue inflection above 2% organic, which the trajectory doesn't support, or (b) multiple re-rating, which won't happen without growth. The 4% dividend is the floor; total return likely 5-7% annualized from here, not the 10%+ a "slight upside" verdict implies. Not a sell, not a buy — a hold for income accounts only, and I'd want $80-85 before adding for total return.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 13:54:56
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus's "hold" recommendation at current levels, but I see slightly more potential upside due to stable cash flows and dividend support. Fair value closer to $95, with interest in buying around the $85 mark.

From my analysis of the raw data, Clorox is currently navigating a period of stabilization rather than growth. The quarterly revenue figures show a notable consistency, maintaining around $1.67B for three of the last four quarters, with the exception of a dip to $1.43B in September 2025. This suggests a recovery from a temporary downturn rather than an underlying growth trend. The net margins have bounced back from a low of 5.6% in September 2025 to 11.2% by March 2026, which indicates some recovery in profitability, but the significant uptick in earnings from FY2023 to FY2025 is more an artifact of a low baseline rather than a substantive growth indicator. Clorox's annual revenue has been effectively static around $7.1B over the past few years, emphasizing a plateau in its revenue-generating capabilities.

I concur with Opus on several points regarding the company's financial health and market position. Opus correctly identifies the margin recovery as largely complete, with further improvements unlikely without significant changes in market conditions. I also agree with the assessment of the balance sheet, where the absence of a debt figure masks the leverage issues implied by a high P/B ratio and a strong ROE, which are unsustainable without addressing the underlying debt structure. The mention of a 6.7% free cash flow yield aligns with my own view that, while Clorox generates solid cash flow, the dividend yield of 4% leaves a limited buffer for strategic maneuvers like substantial buybacks or debt reduction.

However, I diverge from Opus's skepticism on the synthesis verdict of "slight upside." While Opus views this as contradictory to the Market Forces' "value trap" narrative, I see them as complementary. The slight upside could be attributed to Clorox's ability to maintain its dividend amidst stable cash flows, which is attractive in a low-growth environment. The potential for market mispricing due to external factors like inflation or commodity price shifts could also offer minor upside potential. Nonetheless, Opus's caution about the limitations in Clorox's growth prospects is warranted, particularly with the competitive pressures from private labels and shifting consumer behaviors post-pandemic.

A careful skeptic of both views might argue that the focus on short-term margin recovery overlooks longer-term strategic initiatives or potential market expansions that Clorox could undertake. They might also suggest that the narrative around private label competition is overstated, given Clorox's strong brand equity and historical resilience in consumer staples.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 14:33:56
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 8/10
Solid staple (+39 quality) trading right on top of fair value (-63 value) — good business, wrong price.
The cruxWhether you get a real drawdown into the high $70s; without that, there's no edge here because the recovery is already in the tape.
Company Quality
+39
Solid
edge √Σ 142 · risk √Σ 102 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-63
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 29 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses are telling a coherent story, not a conflicting one. Quality at +39 says this is a clean, cash-generative staple — FCF ~$731M/yr, OCF/NI ~3x, buybacks 382% of SBC, and a real 2025 margin snap-back — but not a fortress (net debt $2.3B, flat revenue for five years). Value at -63 says the market already knows all of that: signal-adjusted FV $92 vs price $94, EPV floor $68, and the only bullish input is an anchored-PE I'd also throw out. Paying $94 for $92 of deserved value on a Solid-not-Wide-Moat business with a leveraged balance sheet is just dead money with downside if input costs roll over again.

My play: zero position today. I put CLX on the watchlist with a hard bid in the high $70s — the stated 'attractive below $78' lines up with where the EPV floor and a real margin of safety converge. If it trades into $78–82 on a tape-wide staples flush or a single bad quarter on private-label trade-down, I start a 1% starter and scale to 3% on a print into the low $70s. Above $90 I do nothing; between $82 and $90 I might nibble 50bps if there's a clean catalyst (guide-down overreaction), but I'm not chasing. The insider purchase is too small to change the math. This is a 'great patience, mediocre price' setup — the discipline is to wait for the second lens to turn green, not to talk myself into paying full freight because the first lens is fine.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+39 Solid edge √Σ 142 · risk √Σ 102 · conf 7/10

Clorox is a textbook mature_earner: revenue has been essentially flat at $7.1–7.4B for five years (2021: $7.34B → 2025: $7.10B), but the franchise throws off real cash — FCF averaged ~$731M/yr and OCF/NI is 2.99x. Earnings quality is genuinely clean: Beneish M of -2.46, accruals at -8.3% of assets, and Altman Z of 3.36 all corroborate that reported numbers are backed by cash. The 2022–2024 stretch was ugly (gross margin collapsed to 35.8% in 2022, net income fell to $149M in 2023), but FY2025 shows a real operational snap-back: GM 45.2%, OpM 16.6%, and net income $810M — the best of the five-year window.

Capital discipline is a positive. Diluted share count edged down (-0.6% CAGR) with buybacks running 382% of SBC, and SBC itself is a modest 1.1% of revenue — per-share value is being concentrated, not leaked. The blemish is the balance sheet: net debt of $2.32B against only $167M liquid cash means there is no cushion, just reliance on the steady FCF stream. Insider activity is constructive but small — one $429K open-market purchase by Breber in May 2026 is the only directional buy of size; the rest is routine awards and tax withholdings, so the 'significant insider buying' framing is a bit overstated.

This is a high-integrity, well-run staples business with a recognizable brand moat and proven cash conversion, but flat top-line, the 2022–2024 margin trough (likely cost inflation + the 2023 cyberattack impact — worth verifying), and a leveraged balance sheet keep it from being elite. Solid, not fortress.

Strengths 5
m80
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 2.99x, accruals -8.3% of assets, Beneish M -2.46, Altman Z 3.36 — mechanical checks all green. Reported earnings are cash-backed.
m70
Real FCF generation
Five-year FCF: $945M, $535M, $930M, $483M, $761M — averages ~$731M/yr on a ~$11B market cap business. Self-funding with no need for external capital.
m60
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares -0.6% CAGR (127.3M → 124.3M), buybacks at 382% of SBC, SBC only 1.1% of revenue. Owners aren't being diluted.
m65
FY2025 margin recovery is real
GM rebounded from 35.8% (2022) → 45.2% (2025); OpM from 10.1% → 16.6%; net income from $149M (2023) → $810M (2025). The franchise economics reasserted themselves.
m30
Modest but real insider buy
Breber's $429K open-market P-purchase in May 2026 is the only directional buy of size — small in absolute terms but the only P on the tape with zero S.
Concerns 4
m65
No top-line growth
Revenue $7.34B (2021) → $7.10B (2025) — five years of stagnation. The business is defending share, not compounding.
m60
Net debt with thin cash
Net cash of -$2.32B against only $167M liquid (cash/mktcap 1.5%). The balance sheet is a constraint; FCF must keep flowing to service it.
m45
Mid-cycle earnings volatility for a 'staple'
Net income swung from $710M → $462M → $149M → $280M → $810M across five years. That's more volatility than a consumer-defensive label suggests — pricing power was tested and dented.
m25
Insider-buying framing overstated
Header says 'significant insider buying' but the tape shows one $429K P-purchase; the rest are A-awards and F-InKind tax withholdings. Real signal is modest, not strong.
This is a solid, well-behaved consumer staples operator — clean books, real cash, disciplined share count, and a 2025 that proves the brand economics are intact. But I won't call it great: revenue has gone nowhere for five years, the balance sheet runs on net debt rather than a cash cushion, and the 2022–2024 earnings swing showed the moat isn't impervious to input-cost shocks. It's the kind of business you trust to keep generating $600–800M of FCF and slowly shrink its share count, not one that's compounding intrinsic value at an exciting rate. Solid B+ business, not an A.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Confirm drivers of the 2022–2024 margin trough (commodity/freight inflation vs. the 2023 cyberattack disruption) and whether FY2025 normalization is sustainable
  • Maturity ladder and fixed/floating mix on the $2.3B+ net debt
  • Segment-level organic volume vs. price/mix — is FY2025 recovery price-led or volume-led?
  • Pension/OPEB and lease obligations not reflected in headline net debt
  • Customer concentration with mass retailers (Walmart, Costco, Target) and private-label competitive pressure on bleach/wipes
  • Status of the Better Health VMS divestiture / portfolio reshaping and impact on go-forward revenue base
-63 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 29 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10
Price $94.14 vs deserved ~$92–$98 — within 5%, no meaningful margin of safety either way. attractive below $78.00

The composite FV of $103.64 sits ~10% above the $94.14 price, but the signal-adjusted FV of $92.32 is actually 2% below today's quote. The DCF ($98) and signal-adjusted number cluster tightly around the mid-$90s, which is where the stock trades. The anchored-PE output of $150 is a clear outlier — it assumes peak-multiple normalization on recovering earnings and should be heavily discounted; the EPV floor of $68 is the more useful bookend and tells you what you're paying for growth/brand premium above a no-growth baseline.

What's priced in: continued margin recovery toward management's targets, low-single-digit organic growth, and steady buybacks — i.e., the bull case mostly. There's no embedded disaster, but there's also no discount for the real risks the bear flags (private-label trade-down, channel mix pressure, flat five-year revenue). With a Solid (not Wide-Moat) quality grade and net debt rather than a cash cushion, the deserved value sits in the low-to-mid $90s, which is exactly where it trades.

Margin of safety is effectively zero. You're paying ~$94 for ~$92–$98 of deserved value depending on how much credit you give the recovery. That's a hold-quality price, not a buy-quality price.

Cheap signals 2
m25
DCF modestly above price
DCF FV of $98.26 is ~4% above $94.14 — a thin cushion, not a margin of safety, and consistent with 'fair.'
m15
High earnings quality means no haircut needed
Earnings-quality score of 3 (high) means the reported numbers don't need to be discounted — supports the FV figures at face value rather than pushing deserved value lower.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
Signal-adjusted FV below price
Signal-adjusted FV $92.32 vs price $94.14 implies -2% upside; the market has already captured the recovery thesis.
m45
EPV floor far below price
EPV of $67.90 is 28% below the current quote, meaning ~$26/share of the price is paying for growth and brand premium on a business that has shown zero revenue growth over five years.
m50
Anchored-PE is a runaway input
The $150.14 anchored-PE figure (60% above price) leans on a normalized multiple applied to recovering EPS — discount heavily; it's the only method showing material upside and it's the least credible here.
m30
Quality grade doesn't justify premium
Solid (score 39), not Wide-Moat. Net-debt balance sheet and flat revenue mean the deserved multiple should be sector-average, not premium — and that's what the cluster of FVs implies.
This is the textbook 'fairly valued staple' setup — solid business, well-understood story, price already reflects the recovery. I'm not paying $94 for $92 of deserved value when the EPV floor is in the high $60s and the only method screaming cheap is an anchored-PE that I don't trust. I'd want a real margin of safety — something in the high $70s — before this becomes interesting on valuation alone. At today's price it's a hold, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • FY26 organic growth and margin guidance — is the recovery toward ~44% gross margin tracking or stalling?
  • Private-label share trends in bleach, bags, and dressings — any acceleration would compress the deserved multiple
  • Free cash flow conversion vs reported EPS to confirm the high earnings-quality signal holds
  • Net debt trajectory and pace of buybacks — capital return is part of the bull case
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16