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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 9, 2026
3 days ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

Capri Holdings Limited

CPRI NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods
London, WC2B 6UF, United Kingdom IPO 2011 capriholdings.com Updated Jun 9, 7:11pm
Price
$19.94
Market Cap
$2.3B
Employees
10,200
Beta
1.40
Avg Volume
3,050,382
CEO
John D. Idol
Business Description

Capri Holdings Limited is a global luxury fashion group specializing in the design, promotion, distribution, and retail of branded clothing, footwear, and accessories for both men and women. Its extensive market presence spans across the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The company conducts its operations through three prominent segments: Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors. Its diverse product offering includes ready-to-wear garments, a wide array of accessories such as handbags, scarves, belts, and small leather goods, alongside footwear, eyewear, watches, jewelry, fragrances, and home furnishings. These products are distributed to consumers via a multifaceted network that includes exclusive boutiques, major department stores, specialty retailers, and various e-commerce websites. Beyond its direct sales, Capri Holdings also grants licenses for the Versace brand name and its trademarks to external parties for retail and wholesale distribution. Furthermore, it maintains licensing agreements for the manufacture and sale of particular product lines, including jeans, fragrances, watches, eyewear, and home furnishings. The company, which was initially named Michael Kors Holdings Limited, officially adopted the name Capri Holdings Limited in December 2018. Established in 1981, its global headquarters are located in London, United Kingdom.

Business History
Generated: Jun 9, 2026 7:14pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:11pm (3d ago)
$19.94
+0.56 (+2.89%)
Day Range
$19.60 – $20.45
52-Week Range
$16.22 – $28.27
50-Day MA
$18.90
200-Day MA
$21.24
Volume
3,026,905.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $20.00
Consensus $23.67
High $32.00
(54 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 115,184,436.00
Float 112,008,801.00
Free Float 97.2%
High free float — 97.2% of shares trade freely, ~2.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 9, 2026 7:13pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
17.29
Stock Price: $19.94
EPS (Diluted): 0.77
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
25.76
Stock Price: $19.94
Total Equity: $80.00M
Shares: 119,848,361
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
18.46
Market Cap: $2.30B
Total Debt: $590.00M
Cash: $135.00M
EBITDA: $203.00M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$3.3B
Market Cap: $2.30B
Total Debt: $590.00M
Cash: $135.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
58.9%
Gross Profit: $2.05B
Revenue: $3.47B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
2.4%
Operating Income: $82.00M
Revenue: $3.47B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
2.6%
Net Income: $92.00M
Revenue: $3.47B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
102.2%
Net Income: $92.00M
Total Equity: $80.00M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
1.9%
Operating Income: $82.00M
Tax Rate: 25.2%
Equity: $80.00M
Total Debt: $590.00M
Cash: $135.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.21
Current Assets: $1.15B
Current Liabilities: $954.00M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
7.38
Short-Term Debt: $247.00M
Long-Term Debt: $343.00M
Total Debt: $590.00M
Total Equity: $80.00M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$28.99
Revenue: $3.47B
Shares: 119,848,361
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$0.67
Total Equity: $80.00M
Shares: 119,848,361
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.12
Operating CF: $77.00M
CapEx: -$63.00M
Shares: 119,848,361
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $19.94
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $92.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 9, 2026 7:13pm
Compares CPRI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 9, 2026 7:17:43 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $5.7B $5.6B $4.4B $4.4B $3.5B
Cost of Revenue $1.9B $1.9B $1.6B $1.6B $1.4B
Gross Profit $3.7B $3.7B $2.8B $2.8B $2.0B
Operating Expenses $2.8B $3.0B $3.6B $3.6B $2.0B
Operating Income $903.0M $679.0M -$752.0M -$752.0M $82.0M
Net Income $822.0M $616.0M -$1.2B -$1.2B $92.0M
EBITDA $1.2B $1.0B $245.0M $245.0M $203.0M
EPS $5.49 $4.65 $-10.00 $-10.00 $0.77
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:11pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $169.0M $249.0M $199.0M $166.0M $135.0M
Total Current Assets $1.9B $1.9B $1.6B $1.5B $1.2B
Total Assets $7.5B $7.3B $6.7B $5.2B $3.2B
Current Liabilities $1.6B $1.5B $1.7B $1.3B $954.0M
Long-Term Debt $1.1B $1.8B $1.3B $1.5B $343.0M
Total Liabilities $4.9B $5.4B $5.1B $4.8B $3.2B
Total Equity $2.6B $1.8B $1.6B $368.0M $80.0M
Retained Earnings $5.1B $5.7B $5.5B $4.3B $4.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $704.0M $771.0M $309.0M $281.0M $77.0M
Capital Expenditure -$131.0M -$226.0M -$189.0M -$128.0M -$63.0M
Free Cash Flow $573.0M $545.0M $120.0M $153.0M $14.0M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 -$9.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$661.0M -$1.4B -$107.0M -$4.0M -$81.0M
Net Change in Cash -$62.0M $84.0M -$51.0M -$30.0M $29.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:11pm (3d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $3.5B
$3.4B – $3.5B
$3.5B
$3.5B – $3.5B
$3.6B
$3.6B – $3.7B
$3.7B
$3.7B – $3.7B
EBITDA $392.2M
$388.8M – $394.5M
$396.9M
$394.6M – $398.0M
$408.2M
$402.6M – $416.1M
$418.1M
$418.1M – $418.2M
Net Income $166.0M
$159.9M – $172.0M
$233.4M
$228.1M – $276.0M
$311.2M
$278.8M – $343.6M
$258.0M
$238.0M – $395.5M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:18pm (3d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -0.6% -20.9% +0.0% -21.8%
Gross Profit Growth -0.5% -24.1% +0.0% -27.6%
Operating Income Growth -24.8% -210.8% +0.0% +110.9%
Net Income Growth -25.1% -291.9% +0.0% +107.8%
EBITDA Growth -16.1% -75.9% +0.0% -17.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:17pm (3d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-08 Reitman Stephen F S-Sale 17,981.00 $19.42 $349,166
2026-05-29 McDonough Krista A S-Sale 92,236.00 $18.51 $1.7M
2026-04-01 Reddien Tyler Charles A-Award 27,824.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-30 Reddien Tyler Charles 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-13 IDOL JOHN D G-Gift 1,000,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-13 IDOL JOHN D G-Gift 1,000,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-11 IDOL JOHN D P-Purchase 55,000.00 $17.98 $988,900
2026-01-02 Mehta Rajal M-Exempt 3,235.00 $0.00 $0
2026-01-02 Mehta Rajal M-Exempt 3,235.00 $0.00 $0
2026-01-02 Mehta Rajal F-InKind 1,363.00 $24.39 $33,244
2025-12-19 IDOL JOHN D M-Exempt 13,164.00 $0.00 $0
2025-12-19 IDOL JOHN D F-InKind 13,164.00 $25.25 $332,391
2025-12-19 IDOL JOHN D M-Exempt 13,164.00 $0.00 $0
2025-12-09 Mehta Rajal S-Sale 10,000.00 $25.96 $259,610
2025-08-07 Tomlin Jean M-Exempt 4,854.00 $0.00 $0
2025-08-07 Tomlin Jean F-InKind 2,282.00 $20.77 $47,397
2025-08-07 Tomlin Jean A-Award 8,426.00 $0.00 $0
2025-08-07 Tomlin Jean M-Exempt 4,854.00 $0.00 $0
2025-08-07 THOMPSON JANE A. M-Exempt 4,854.00 $0.00 $0
2025-08-07 THOMPSON JANE A. F-InKind 2,282.00 $20.77 $47,397
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CPRI.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-09 19:18:20
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

The raw numbers tell a more nuanced story than the "distressed conglomerate" framing implies. Annual revenue did collapse from $5.62B (FY23) to $3.47B (FY26) — but note FY24 and FY25 are listed identically at $4.44B with -$1.18B NI, which is a data artifact (likely the FY25 row duplicated). The real trajectory is roughly $5.62B → $4.44B → $3.47B, and the $1.18B loss was almost entirely non-cash impairment tied to the failed Tapestry deal collapse and brand writedowns, not operating cash burn. FY26 swung back to $92M net income and $82M operating income on $3.47B revenue — thin 2.4% op margin, but positive. Quarterly cadence shows the holiday quarter (Dec-2025) printed $1.03B revenue and $116M NI at 11.3% margin, materially better than the prior-year holiday loss. So the "collapse" is real in magnitude but the operating bottom appears to be in.

Where I push back on the prior models: the synthesis verdict of "Disconnected from Fundamentals" and Market Forces' "imminent liquidity risk" both overstate the distress. With $135M cash, $77M operating CF, $14M FCF, and the balance sheet showing total debt as "—" (missing, not zero — this is a real gap), I cannot confirm a liquidity crisis without the debt figure, but a company generating positive FCF and a positive holiday quarter is not facing imminent insolvency. The Narrative layer's "steady-compounder/anchored" read is closer to wrong than right — this isn't a compounder, it's a turnaround with one good quarter. Meanwhile the reverse-DCF's implied 31.9% FCF growth is, as synthesis correctly notes, an artifact of dividing by a near-zero base; that math is meaningless here. The most useful prior signal is the insider net buying (a 55,000-share P-Purchase in March alongside the routine sales and the two 1M-share gifts which are likely estate/charitable, not signaling). Insiders putting cash in at these levels is a real datapoint.

The contrarian case the models underweight: at 0.59x sales and ~$2.3B market cap on a business doing $3.47B revenue with 59% gross margins and a Versace + Jimmy Choo + Michael Kors brand stack, the sum-of-the-parts floor matters. Versace alone was valued at ~$2B in the abandoned Prada deal chatter; Jimmy Choo has real standalone value. Even haircut 40%, you're approaching the entire enterprise value from two brands while getting Michael Kors (still ~60% of revenue and the cash engine, however unloved) for free. The bear case that Kors has "lost cultural relevance" is real but already priced — the stock is down ~75% from peak. The asymmetry isn't "platform optionality," it's break-up value plus a cyclical luxury recovery option. EV/EBITDA of 18.5x on TTM looks rich but is depressed-earnings denominator math; on normalized $400-500M EBITDA (achievable if margins recover to 10-12% on $3.5-4B revenue), you're at 5-6x.

Where the data is genuinely thin: total debt and equity are missing from the tile, which is the single most important gap for a turnaround thesis — I can't size the balance sheet risk without it, and Capri historically carried $1.5-2B in debt. The FY24/FY25 duplicated row is a data integrity flag. The ev_to_ebitda, P/E, ROE, ROIC TTM-vs-annual mismatch is noted but doesn't change the conclusion much. Insider transaction roles being unlabeled ("?") makes the buying signal weaker than it should be. The macro headwind call is fair — luxury is in a real downturn (see Kering, LVMH organic declines) and CPRI is the weakest brand stack in the category.

I dissent partially from the synthesis. "Disconnected from Fundamentals" is the right label but in the opposite direction the synthesis implies — the market is pricing terminal decline while FY26 shows operating stabilization, positive FCF, and a strong holiday print. This is not a steady compounder and not a buy-and-hold; it's a special situation where the sum-of-parts floor (~$25-30 if Versace fetches $1.5-2B and Jimmy Choo $500-800M) provides downside support, and a successful Kors stabilization or asset sale catalyst could

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-09 19:18:24
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's optimistic "sum-of-parts floor" thesis — Capri's current price of $19.94 reflects justified skepticism about its turnaround prospects. The market's cautious stance seems appropriate given the ongoing brand and sector challenges.

The raw data on Capri Holdings Limited paints a picture of a company struggling to regain its footing in the luxury goods sector. The staggering decline in revenue from $5.62 billion in 2023 to $3.47 billion in 2026 highlights severe operational challenges. The annual income data suggests that Capri has been grappling with significant losses, particularly in 2024 and 2025 where the net income stood at a negative $1.18 billion, a substantial drop from the profitable years prior. However, the latest fiscal year shows a swing to a modest profit of $92 million, which indicates some stabilization. Notably, the gross margin remains relatively healthy at 59%, which suggests that the core business retains some pricing power and operational efficiency. The absence of debt figures in the balance sheet is a critical gap, preventing a full assessment of the company's financial health. The cash flow statement shows positive operating cash flow of $77 million, but free cash flow is low at $14 million, indicating limited financial flexibility.

Opus argues that the market is overestimating Capri's distress, noting the positive swing to net income in FY26 and a strong holiday quarter performance. I agree that these are positive signs of potential stabilization. However, I disagree with the assertion that liquidity risk is overstated. Without clear debt figures, it's difficult to dismiss the risk entirely, especially given the company's history of financial distress. Opus also suggests that insider net buying is a positive indicator; I concur, as it demonstrates insider confidence at current price levels. However, the lack of clarity on insider transaction roles makes this signal less robust.

Where I diverge significantly from Opus is on the valuation outlook. While Opus suggests that the sum-of-the-parts analysis provides a floor for the stock, I am skeptical of this approach given the competitive pressures and brand challenges Capri faces. The market's skepticism towards Michael Kors' cultural relevance and the weak positioning against stronger competitors like LVMH and Kering is justified. The recent 75% stock price decline reflects these concerns, and I believe the market is correctly pricing in the potential for continued brand erosion.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I underplay the broader macroeconomic risks impacting luxury goods. The sector is facing headwinds from changing consumer preferences post-pandemic and economic instability. Additionally, the lack of detailed debt information could mask significant liabilities, posing a hidden risk to Capri's financial stability.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-09 19:19:37
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass — revisit sub-$16.50 8/10
Shaky business (-73) trading right on top of fair value (-21) — no edge, no margin of safety, no reason to act here.
The cruxWhether Michael Kors brand heat stabilizes — without that, both the quality trajectory and the deserved multiple keep grinding lower.
Company Quality
-73
Shaky
edge √Σ 70 · risk √Σ 143 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-21
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 53 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

Both lenses point the same direction and that's what makes this easy: the quality work says -73 Shaky (revenue down 39% in four years, gross margin off 730bps, FCF reduced to a $14M rounding error on $3.47B revenue), and the valuation work says fairly valued with FV essentially at the print. When a structurally declining luxury house is priced for fair, the asymmetry is wrong — I'm being asked to pay full freight for a business whose brands are losing relevance. The capital allocation (real 21% share count reduction, CEO open-market buy) is the only thing keeping this off my short list, but discipline on a shrinking base doesn't create value, it just slows the bleed.

The play: I do nothing here. No starter, no nibble — sub-$20 is not a gift on this name, it's the market correctly pricing a faded portfolio. I set an alert at $16.50 (the value lens's attractive-below level, ~17% lower) and only then consider a quarter-sized starter as a turnaround trade, not a compounder hold, sized to lose. What flips me aggressive: tangible Michael Kors comp inflection plus a clean Versace divestiture print that de-levers the balance sheet — until I see one of those in the tape, this stays in the 'watch, don't own' bucket. The -73 quality score means I never size this big regardless of price; the -21 value score means I'm not paying today's price at all.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
-73 Shaky edge √Σ 70 · risk √Σ 143 · conf 7/10

Capri's top line has fallen from $5.65B in FY2022 to $3.47B in FY2026 — roughly a 39% revenue contraction in four years — while gross margin has eroded from 66.2% to 58.9%. Operating margin swung from +16% to two consecutive years of -16.9% (with ~$1.18B net losses each), and the FY2026 'recovery' to a 2.4% op margin on $14M of FCF is a shadow of the prior earnings power. This is a business whose brands (Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, Versace — Versace now reportedly being divested) are losing relevance, not a temporary cyclical dip.

The balance sheet is a real constraint: net debt of $455M against only $135M liquid cash, and $247M of short-term debt exceeds cash on hand. Earnings quality is mediocre — OCF/NI of 0.49x means reported income is running well ahead of cash, and FCF cratered to $14M on $3.47B of revenue (0.4% FCF margin). Altman Z of 3.59 still reads 'safe' but that's backward-looking given the trajectory.

The one genuine bright spot is capital discipline: diluted shares fell from 152.5M to ~119.8M (-5.9% CAGR), SBC is only ~1% of revenue, and buyback/SBC is 676%. CEO Idol's $989K open-market purchase in March 2026 is a real directional signal. But buying back shares of a shrinking business doesn't fix the underlying brand erosion.

Strengths 3
m55
Genuine share count reduction
Diluted shares from 152.5M to 119.8M (-21% over 4 years, -5.9% CAGR). Buyback/SBC ratio of 676% — net buyer, not diluter. SBC only 1% of revenue.
m35
CEO open-market buy
John Idol bought 55K shares for $989K in March 2026 — directional insider conviction, though he also gifted 2M shares and had tax-withholding sales same period.
m25
Still positive FCF and Z-score safe
Altman Z 3.59, Beneish M -2.55 (no manipulation flag), accruals -10.1%. The business hasn't crossed into distress.
Concerns 5
m85
Severe revenue and margin collapse
Revenue down from $5.65B (FY22) to $3.47B (FY26), -39%. Gross margin compressed 730bps (66.2% → 58.9%). Operating margin went from +16% to two straight years of -16.9% before a thin 2.4% recovery.
m75
FCF nearly extinguished
FCF fell from $573M in FY22 to just $14M in FY26 — a 97% decline. FCF margin is 0.4%. OCF/NI of 0.49x shows reported earnings outrun cash.
m60
Constrained balance sheet
Net debt $455M, only $135M liquid cash, and $247M short-term debt exceeds cash — meaningful refinancing exposure for a business with $14M FCF.
m55
Two years of ~$1.18B net losses
Back-to-back FY24/FY25 losses of $1.18B each (likely brand impairments) signal management acknowledged the brands are worth materially less than carrying value.
m30
Other insiders net selling
McDonough sold $1.7M, Reitman $349K, Mehta $260K — multiple insiders trimming alongside the CEO's purchase. Pattern is mixed at best.
This is a structurally challenged luxury-adjacent business, not a great company. Revenue down 39% in four years, gross margin off 730bps, two consecutive billion-dollar losses, and FCF reduced to a rounding error — that's the brand portfolio losing pricing power and relevance, not a one-off. The capital allocation discipline (real share count shrinkage, low SBC, CEO putting personal money in) is genuinely respectable and keeps this out of 'Fragile' territory. But shrinking shares of a shrinking business with net debt and $14M FCF is treading water. I'd call this Shaky: not in distress, but not a high-quality compounder by any reasonable definition.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Status and terms of the Versace divestiture — proceeds, use of cash, residual business mix
  • Maturity schedule on the $247M short-term debt and any covenant headroom
  • Brand-level revenue/margin trends — is Michael Kors or Jimmy Choo stabilizing?
  • Composition of the FY24/FY25 ~$1.18B losses (impairment vs. operating)
  • Wholesale vs. DTC channel mix and whether wholesale doors are still being cut
  • FY26 working capital movements explaining OCF/NI of 0.49x
-21 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 53 · conf 6/10
Price $19.94 vs composite/signal-adj FV $19.64 — ~1.5% premium, essentially fair with no margin of safety on a Shaky-quality business. attractive below $16.50

The e2e composite and signal-adjusted fair value both land at $19.64 versus a $19.94 quote — a ~1.5% premium, which is statistical noise. The market has done a reasonable job pricing this: a faded luxury portfolio with revenue down 39% over four years, gross margin off 730bps, and two consecutive billion-dollar losses does not deserve a multiple expansion, and the stock isn't getting one. Earnings quality is flagged as 'good,' so no additional haircut is warranted from that angle, but the quality lens (-73, 'Shaky') argues against paying any premium to the FV either.

For this to be cheap, you'd need to underwrite a real Michael Kors brand-heat recovery or a Versace/Jimmy Choo margin inflection — neither is in the tape. The bull case (steady DTC mix-shift compounder) is essentially priced in at FV; the bear case (continued relevance loss) would re-rate this lower. With ~$2.3B market cap on a business whose FCF has been reduced to a 'rounding error,' the deserved value is genuinely fragile — a 10-15% discount to FV is what I'd want before calling it interesting, not a premium.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Capital allocation discipline is a real offset
Genuine share count shrinkage, low SBC, and CEO buying personal stock — these don't make it cheap, but they limit the downside if operations stabilize.
m20
Composite FV is at the price, not above it
The valuation engine isn't screaming overvalued — $19.64 vs $19.94 means the multi-method triangulation sees this as roughly fair, not expensive.
Rich / priced-in 2
m35
No margin of safety on a declining business
Trading 1.5% above $19.64 FV while revenue is down 39% in four years and gross margin has compressed 730bps — deserved value should sit below FV, not above it.
m40
FCF reduced to a rounding error
With two consecutive billion-dollar losses and FCF barely positive, the $2.3B market cap implies an eventual earnings recovery that isn't visible in current trends — that's a 'something must go right' setup at today's price.
This is the textbook 'fairly valued, move on' verdict. The FV is $19.64, the stock is $19.94 — there is no gap. On a Shaky-quality business with collapsing revenue and gutted margins, I want to pay a discount to fair value, not a premium. I'd need this in the mid-$16s before the risk/reward gets interesting, and even then I'm buying a turnaround, not a bargain. Pass at this price.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Michael Kors comp-sales trajectory — is the brand stabilizing or still bleeding?
  • Versace and Jimmy Choo segment operating margins — any sign of the promised DTC mix-shift flowing through?
  • Forward FCF guidance and any one-time impairment charges embedded in the recent losses
  • Inventory levels and markdown cadence — a tell on pricing power
  • Net debt and covenant headroom given the earnings collapse
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16