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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 96% complete · +6 refreshed

FirstCash Holdings, Inc

FCFS NASDAQ Categories PDF
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services
Fort Worth, TX 76102, United States IPO 1991 firstcash.com Updated Jun 7, 3:08pm
Price
$225.44
Market Cap
$9.9B
Employees
20,000
Beta
0.53
Avg Volume
358,673
CEO
Rick L. Wessel
Business Description

FirstCash Holdings, Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates retail pawn stores in the United States, Mexico, and rest of Latin America. Its pawn stores lend money on the collateral of pledged personal property, including jewelry, electronics, tools, appliances, sporting goods, and musical instruments; and retails merchandise acquired through collateral forfeitures on forfeited pawn loans and over-the-counter purchases of merchandise directly from customers. The company is also involved in melting scrap jewelry, as well as sells gold, silver, and diamonds in commodity markets. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,081 stores in the United States and the District of Columbia; 1,656 stores in Mexico; 60 stores in Guatemala; 13 stores in El Salvador; and 15 stores in Colombia. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:11pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:08pm (5d ago)
$225.44
+3.00 (+1.35%)
Day Range
$222.36 – $227.97
52-Week Range
$119.21 – $235.97
50-Day MA
$212.61
200-Day MA
$175.80
Volume
332,522.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $252.00
Consensus $252.00
High $252.00
(7 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 43,836,700.00
Float 39,795,964.00
Free Float 90.8%
High free float — 90.8% of shares trade freely, ~9.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:10pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
28.14
Stock Price: $225.44
EPS (Diluted): 7.35
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.15
Stock Price: $225.44
Total Equity: $2.28B
Shares: 44,526,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.94
Market Cap: $9.88B
Total Debt: $2.57B
Cash: $125.20M
EBITDA: $999.78M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$9.9B
Market Cap: $9.88B
Total Debt: $2.57B
Cash: $125.20M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
51.7%
Gross Profit: $1.89B
Revenue: $3.66B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
15.4%
Operating Income: $562.23M
Revenue: $3.66B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
9.0%
Net Income: $330.38M
Revenue: $3.66B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
15.9%
Net Income: $330.38M
Total Equity: $2.28B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.8%
Operating Income: $562.23M
Tax Rate: 26.2%
Equity: $2.28B
Total Debt: $2.57B
Cash: $125.20M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.55
Current Assets: $1.86B
Current Liabilities: $407.81M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.13
Short-Term Debt: $111.29M
Long-Term Debt: $2.46B
Total Debt: $2.57B
Total Equity: $2.28B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$82.22
Revenue: $3.66B
Shares: 44,526,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$51.13
Total Equity: $2.28B
Shares: 44,526,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$10.54
Operating CF: $585.94M
CapEx: -$116.83M
Shares: 44,526,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $225.44
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $330.38M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:10pm
Compares FCFS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:14:37 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $1.7B $2.7B $3.2B $3.4B $3.7B
Cost of Revenue $779.8M $1.5B $1.6B $1.8B $1.8B
Gross Profit $919.2M $1.3B $1.5B $1.6B $1.9B
Operating Expenses $722.0M $980.7M $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B
Operating Income $197.2M $283.9M $389.6M $450.4M $562.2M
Net Income $124.9M $253.5M $219.3M $258.8M $330.4M
EBITDA $257.6M $851.7M $906.7M $986.2M $999.8M
EPS $3.05 $5.37 $4.82 $5.76 $7.35
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:08pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $120.0M $117.3M $127.0M $175.1M $125.2M
Total Current Assets $1.1B $1.1B $1.3B $1.4B $1.9B
Total Assets $3.8B $3.9B $4.3B $4.5B $5.3B
Current Liabilities $392.2M $295.5M $335.6M $339.4M $407.8M
Long-Term Debt $1.3B $1.4B $1.6B $1.7B $2.5B
Total Liabilities $2.0B $2.0B $2.3B $2.4B $3.0B
Total Equity $1.8B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B $2.3B
Retained Earnings $866.7M $1.1B $1.2B $1.4B $1.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $223.3M $469.3M $416.1M $540.0M $585.9M
Capital Expenditure -$42.0M -$35.6M -$60.1M -$68.2M -$116.8M
Free Cash Flow $181.3M $433.7M $356.0M $471.7M $469.1M
Acquisitions (net) -$543.9M -$96.8M -$181.3M -$76.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$49.6M -$157.9M -$114.4M -$85.0M -$115.8M
Net Change in Cash $54.2M -$2.7M $9.7M $48.1M -$49.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:08pm (5d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $4.6B
$4.4B – $4.9B
$5.2B
$5.2B – $5.3B
$5.7B
$5.6B – $5.9B
$6.1B
$6.0B – $6.3B
EBITDA $1.7B
$1.6B – $1.8B
$1.9B
$1.9B – $1.9B
$2.1B
$2.1B – $2.2B
$2.3B
$2.2B – $2.3B
Net Income $556.0M
$538.2M – $573.8M
$671.5M
$650.1M – $692.8M
$754.3M
$734.7M – $783.4M
$843.3M
$821.4M – $875.9M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:14pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +60.6% +15.5% +7.5% +8.0%
Gross Profit Growth +37.6% +19.2% +8.1% +16.1%
Operating Income Growth +44.0% +37.2% +15.6% +24.8%
Net Income Growth +102.9% -13.5% +18.0% +27.6%
EBITDA Growth +230.6% +6.5% +8.8% +1.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:12pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-05 Ramos Raul S-Sale 6,835.00 $225.23 $1.5M
2026-05-28 Ramos Raul S-Sale 3,165.00 $231.13 $731,526
2026-05-18 Stuart Thomas Brent S-Sale 10,000.00 $228.49 $2.3M
2026-05-19 Hambleton Howard F S-Sale 3,000.00 $226.41 $679,230
2026-05-18 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,000.00 $227.32 $227,320
2026-05-18 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,000.00 $227.31 $227,310
2026-05-18 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,000.00 $227.28 $227,280
2026-05-01 Garrett Paula K S-Sale 1,500.00 $217.40 $326,100
2026-04-15 ORR R DOUGLAS G-Gift 12,500.00 $0.00 $0
2026-02-06 Hostetler Brian D 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-02-06 Hostetler Brian D 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-02-18 Hambleton Howard F S-Sale 4,000.00 $185.12 $740,480
2026-02-17 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,000.00 $182.98 $182,980
2026-02-17 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,000.00 $182.98 $182,980
2026-02-17 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,000.00 $182.99 $182,990
2026-02-17 Stuart Thomas Brent S-Sale 10,000.00 $182.53 $1.8M
2026-02-05 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 4,000.00 $175.37 $701,480
2026-02-05 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 1,500.00 $174.96 $262,440
2026-02-05 ORR R DOUGLAS S-Sale 2,000.00 $175.01 $350,020
2026-02-05 Hambleton Howard F S-Sale 2,000.00 $177.65 $355,300
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:08pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-15 $0.42 2026-04-22 2026-05-15 2026-05-29
2026-02-18 $0.42 2026-01-28 2026-02-18 2026-02-27
2025-11-14 $0.42 2025-10-22 2025-11-14 2025-11-26
2025-08-15 $0.42 2025-07-23 2025-08-15 2025-08-29
2025-05-15 $0.38 2025-04-24 2025-05-15 2025-05-30
2025-02-14 $0.38 2025-01-30 2025-02-14 2025-02-28
2024-11-15 $0.38 2024-10-23 2024-11-15 2024-11-27
2024-08-15 $0.38 2024-07-25 2024-08-15 2024-08-30
2024-05-14 $0.35 2024-04-25 2024-05-15 2024-05-31
2024-02-13 $0.35 2024-02-01 2024-02-14 2024-02-28
2023-11-14 $0.35 2023-10-26 2023-11-15 2023-11-30
2023-08-14 $0.35 2023-07-27 2023-08-15 2023-08-31
2023-05-12 $0.33 2023-04-27 2023-05-15 2023-05-31
2023-02-13 $0.33 2023-02-02 2023-02-14 2023-02-28
2022-11-14 $0.33 2022-10-27 2022-11-15 2022-11-30
2022-08-11 $0.33 2022-07-28 2022-08-12 2022-08-26
2022-05-13 $0.30 2022-04-28 2022-05-16 2022-05-31
2022-02-17 $0.30 2022-02-08 2022-02-21 2022-02-28
2021-11-12 $0.30 2021-10-20 2021-11-15 2021-11-30
2021-08-12 $0.30 2021-07-21 2021-08-13 2021-08-27
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for FCFS.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:49:24
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Solid pawn compounder (quality +25) trading right on top of fair value (-26) — good business, wrong price.
The cruxWhether I get a market wobble that takes FCFS into the $180s; without that, leverage and 2% annual dilution quietly eat the return.
Company Quality
+25
Solid
edge √Σ 119 · risk √Σ 94 · conf 7/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-26
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 62 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses tell a coherent story: this is a real business (clean cash conversion, margin expansion, Beneish/Altman both benign) but it's a levered compounder the market already understands, so the +25 quality read and the -26 valuation read net out to 'good company, no edge today.' I'm not paying 22x and ~12.4x EV/EBITDA on $2.44B of net debt and 2.1%/yr share creep when deserved value is $215–235 and spot is $225 — that's zero margin of safety against AFF/CFPB tail risk and one-way insider selling. So I do nothing at $225 beyond putting it on the active watchlist.

The playbook: starter position (~1% of book) only if it trades into the $185–190 zone, which is the value lens's attractive-below line and where I'd be getting paid for the leverage and dilution drag. Scale to a full ~3% weight on a flush into the $160s or on a clean AFF regulatory resolution. I get aggressive — full weight in one shot — only if a macro/credit scare takes it sub-$150 with the underlying pawn unit economics still intact. Flip to sidelines permanently if AFF gets hit with a structural CFPB action or if net debt/FCF deteriorates past ~6x. Until then, it's a name I want to own, not a name I want to buy.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
+25 Solid edge √Σ 119 · risk √Σ 94 · conf 7/10

FirstCash is a mature specialty finance/pawn operator showing genuine operational improvement: revenue compounded from $1.70B (2021) to $3.66B (2025), operating margin expanded from 11.6% to 15.4%, and gross margin rebuilt from a 46.3% trough in 2022 to 51.7% in 2025. Net income nearly tripled over the period ($124.9M → $330.4M) and FCF has been consistently strong at $356M–$471M, with OCF/NI of 1.88x and accruals at -4.8% of assets — earnings appear real, not accrual-manufactured. Beneish M of -3.23 and Altman Z of 3.77 corroborate clean books.

The quality blemishes are structural rather than cosmetic. Net debt of ~$2.44B against only $125M liquid cash means the balance sheet is a working constraint — the business funds itself via FCF but has no cushion, and growth has clearly been debt-financed (consistent with the AFF acquisition history implied by the 2021→2022 revenue jump). Diluted shares grew from 41.0M to 44.5M (a 2.1% CAGR), and while management claims buybacks at 1761% of SBC, the share count is still drifting up — suggesting acquisition-related issuance is the real dilution source, not comp. Insider behavior is one-directional: 34 sells / 0 buys totaling $33M over twelve months, including repeated programmatic sales by Director Orr and executives Stuart and Hambleton. Not a panic pattern, but no insider is voting with cash on the other side.

Net: a legitimately improving business with clean earnings and strong cash conversion, tempered by leverage, persistent (if modest) share creep, and uniformly distributive insiders.

Strengths 3
m75
Margin expansion is real and sustained
Operating margin climbed every year from 10.4% (2022) to 15.4% (2025); gross margin recovered from 46.3% to 51.7%. Operating leverage is showing up in the P&L as the business digests the AFF-era expansion.
m70
High earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.88x, accruals -4.8% of assets, Beneish M -3.23, Altman Z 3.77. FCF of $469M in 2025 actually exceeds net income of $330M — cash earnings are stronger than reported earnings.
m60
Consistent FCF generation through cycles
FCF of $181M / $434M / $356M / $472M / $469M over five years on a growing revenue base — self-funding without needing capital markets for operations.
Concerns 4
m65
Net debt of $2.44B vs $125M cash
Cash is only 1.3% of market cap; net debt is ~5x annual FCF. Balance sheet is a constraint not a cushion, and limits optionality if pawn collateral cycles or regulatory pressure (CFPB on AFF) hits.
m45
Share count drift of 2.1%/yr
Diluted shares went 41.0M → 47.3M → 45.7M → 45.0M → 44.5M. Despite claimed buyback >17x SBC, the 2022 acquisition-driven issuance was never fully retired — per-share growth carries a structural headwind.
m40
Uniformly one-sided insider tape
34 sells / 0 buys for $33M over 12 months across multiple officers and directors (Orr, Stuart, Hambleton, Ramos, Garrett). No single sale is alarming, but the complete absence of opportunistic buying from anyone is a soft negative signal on insider conviction.
m30
Regulatory/business-model overhang on AFF segment
Inference: the 2022 revenue step-up (+$1B) reflects the AFF retail point-of-sale lending acquisition, a segment historically scrutinized by CFPB. Need to verify exposure and any pending actions — could pressure the consolidated margin trajectory.
This is a solid, improving operator that I'd put in the 'good business, not great' bucket. The margin expansion, cash conversion, and earnings quality metrics are genuinely clean — they're not manufacturing earnings. What keeps me from calling it strong is the structural leverage ($2.44B net debt with $125M cash is not a fortress, it's a working capital stack) and the quiet 2.1% annual share creep that suggests M&A is being part-funded with equity. The insider tape is uniformly one-way which I note but don't overweight for a mature mid-cap. If they delever and stop diluting, this graduates to Strong; as it stands, it's a well-run levered roll-up with real underlying economics.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted cost of the $2.44B net debt — refinancing exposure
  • AFF segment regulatory status (CFPB actions, state-level rate caps) and segment-level margins vs core pawn
  • Source of 2.1% share creep — acquisition consideration vs RSU grants — and whether buyback authorization is being used opportunistically
  • Same-store / same-pawn-shop revenue and loan-balance growth vs total growth to isolate organic vs acquired
  • Whether insider sales are 10b5-1 programmatic or discretionary
  • Loan loss provisioning and charge-off trends in the consumer lending segment as a leading indicator of earnings durability
-26 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 62 · conf 6/10
Price $225 vs deserved ~$215–235 — roughly fair, no meaningful margin of safety either way. attractive below $185.00

FCFS trades at $225.44 with a ~$9.9B market cap against a leveraged balance sheet ($2.44B net debt, $125M cash), so EV is ~$12.2B. The e2e synthesis flags 'Reasonable Premium,' which lines up with what I see: a solid, cash-generative pawn lender growing revenue and margins, but not a fortress balance sheet and quietly diluting ~2.1%/yr. That deserved-value uplift from quality is real but bounded — I get to roughly $215–$235 fair, putting the stock within a coin-flip of intrinsic.

What's priced in: continued LatAm store growth, stable pawn spreads, and the AFF consumer-finance arm not blowing up. That's a reasonable base case, not a heroic one, which is why I can't call this rich. But there's no margin of safety either — buyers here are paying for execution to continue, with leverage and dilution silently eating ~3-4% of equity returns per year. Earnings quality is clean (score 3), so no haircut is warranted on the reported numbers themselves.

Net: this is the classic 'good company the market already understands.' I'd want a visible pullback before pressing — not because the thesis is broken, but because the gap between price and deserved value is too thin to underwrite.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Countercyclical cash generation deserves a premium
Pawn collateral lending with gold/silver hedges is genuinely recession-resilient; the business earns a higher-than-average multiple vs generic consumer finance. This is why 'fair' isn't 'rich' here.
m20
LatAm reinvestment runway
Mexico/LatAm store expansion offers a multi-year unit-growth tailwind not yet exhausted, which supports the current premium rather than calling it a stretch.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
No margin of safety at current multiple
At ~22x earnings and ~12.4x EV/EBITDA on a leveraged balance sheet, the price already credits LatAm growth and AFF execution. Deserved value sits within ~5% of spot — you're paying for the quality, not getting it cheap.
m35
Leverage + dilution quietly tax the equity
$2.44B net debt and ~2.1%/yr share creep mean reported EPS growth overstates per-share intrinsic compounding by ~200-300 bps. Deserved multiple should be a notch below an unlevered peer.
m25
Bull case largely consensus
Steady-compounder framing is well-known; the easy multiple expansion phase is behind it. Forward returns more likely track earnings growth (~8-12%) than re-rating.
Fully valued. I like the business fine, but at $225 I'm paying ~22x for a levered, quietly-diluting compounder and getting essentially zero margin of safety. The math says deserved value is right where the tape is. I need this ~15-18% lower — call it sub-$185 — before the gap is wide enough to underwrite against the leverage and LatAm regulatory tail risk. Not a short, not a buy; a watchlist name.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • AFF segment credit losses and reserves — a deterioration would compress deserved value materially
  • Mexican peso FX impact on translated earnings in next 1-2 quarters
  • Same-store pawn loan balance growth vs new-store growth (mix matters for deserved multiple)
  • Buyback pace vs SBC — confirm whether 2.1% dilution is persisting or narrowing
  • Gold price sensitivity disclosure — current commodity tailwind could be cyclical
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16