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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
5 days ago · 86% complete · +11 refreshed

Darling Ingredients Inc.

DAR NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Irving, TX 75038, United States IPO 1994 darlingii.com Updated Jun 7, 2:58pm
Price
$59.45
Market Cap
$9.4B
Employees
15,500
Beta
1.03
Avg Volume
2,984,298
CEO
Randall C. Stuewe Randy
Business Description

Darling Ingredients Inc. develops, produces, and sells natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients. The company operates through three segments: Feed Ingredients, Food Ingredients, and Fuel Ingredients. It offers ingredients and customized specialty solutions for customers in the pharmaceutical, food, pet food, feed, industrial, fuel, bioenergy, and fertilizer industries. The company also collects and transforms various animal by-product streams into useable and specialty ingredients, such as collagen, edible fats, feed-grade fats, animal proteins and meals, plasma, pet food ingredients, organic fertilizers, yellow grease, fuel feedstock, green energy, natural casings, and hides. In addition, it recovers and converts used cooking oil and animal fats, and residual bakery products into valuable feed and fuel ingredients. Further, the company provides environmental services, including grease trap collection and disposal services to food service establishments. It primarily operates under the Sonac, Dar Pro, Rothsay, Rousselot, Nature Safe, CleanStar, Peptan, Cookie Meal, Bakery Feeds, Ecoson, and Rendac brand names in North America, Europe, China, South America, Australia, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Darling International Inc. and changed its name to Darling Ingredients Inc. in May 2014. Darling Ingredients Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 3:01pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:37pm (5d ago)
$59.45
-1.27 (-2.09%)
Day Range
$58.89 – $60.71
52-Week Range
$29.15 – $66.02
50-Day MA
$61.15
200-Day MA
$44.35
Volume
1,347,333.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $57.00
Consensus $65.33
High $75.00
(26 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 158,927,000.00
Float 156,743,701.00
Free Float 98.6%
High free float — 98.6% of shares trade freely, ~1.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:00pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
42.07
Stock Price: $59.45
EPS (Diluted): 0.40
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.26
Stock Price: $59.45
Total Equity: $4.74B
Shares: 160,157,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
13.95
Market Cap: $9.45B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Cash: $88.67M
EBITDA: $904.31M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$10.0B
Market Cap: $9.45B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Cash: $88.67M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
15.8%
Gross Profit: $969.46M
Revenue: $6.14B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
6.4%
Operating Income: $395.80M
Revenue: $6.14B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
1.0%
Net Income: $62.80M
Revenue: $6.14B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
4.7%
Net Income: $62.80M
Total Equity: $4.74B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
4.2%
Operating Income: $395.80M
Tax Rate: -15.3%
Equity: $4.74B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Cash: $88.67M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.50
Current Assets: $1.55B
Current Liabilities: $1.03B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.84
Short-Term Debt: $136.96M
Long-Term Debt: $3.86B
Total Debt: $4.00B
Total Equity: $4.74B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$38.34
Revenue: $6.14B
Shares: 160,157,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$29.58
Total Equity: $4.74B
Shares: 160,157,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.24
Operating CF: $1.06B
CapEx: -$380.49M
Shares: 160,157,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $59.45
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $62.80M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 3:00pm
Compares DAR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 4:49:02 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026
Revenue $4.7B $6.5B $6.8B $5.7B $6.1B
Cost of Revenue $3.5B $5.0B $5.1B $4.4B $5.2B
Gross Profit $1.2B $1.5B $1.6B $1.3B $969.5M
Operating Expenses $357.5M $500.5M $695.3M $809.6M $573.7M
Operating Income $884.5M $1.0B $949.7M $468.2M $395.8M
Net Income $650.9M $737.7M $647.7M $278.9M $62.8M
EBITDA $1.2B $1.4B $1.5B $1.0B $904.3M
EPS $4.01 $4.58 $4.05 $1.75 $0.40
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 3:01pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2022 2023 2024 2026
Cash & Equivalents $68.9M $127.0M $126.5M $76.0M $88.7M
Total Current Assets $1.1B $1.6B $1.9B $1.4B $1.6B
Total Assets $6.1B $9.2B $11.1B $10.1B $10.3B
Current Liabilities $752.7M $1.1B $998.1M $1.0B $1.0B
Long-Term Debt $1.4B $3.3B $4.4B $3.9B $3.9B
Total Liabilities $2.8B $5.3B $6.4B $5.6B $5.5B
Total Equity $3.3B $3.8B $4.6B $4.4B $4.7B
Retained Earnings $2.3B $3.1B $3.7B $4.0B $4.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026
Operating Cash Flow $704.4M $813.7M $899.3M $839.3M $1.1B
Capital Expenditure -$274.4M -$392.8M -$557.0M -$332.5M -$380.5M
Free Cash Flow $430.0M $420.9M $342.3M $506.8M $679.2M
Acquisitions (net) -$195.5M -$2.0B -$1.2B -$206.7M -$26.6M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$167.7M -$125.5M -$52.9M -$34.3M -$34.7M
Net Change in Cash -$12.6M $81.1M $114.3M -$47.1M -$8.2M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:58pm (5d ago)
Metric 2028 2029 2030 2031
Revenue $6.9B
$6.9B – $7.0B
$6.9B
$6.9B – $6.9B
$7.0B
$6.7B – $7.2B
$9.2B
$8.8B – $9.4B
EBITDA $1.4B
$1.4B – $1.4B
$1.4B
$1.4B – $1.4B
$1.4B
$1.4B – $1.5B
$1.9B
$1.8B – $1.9B
Net Income $763.1M
$593.0M – $959.8M
$630.3M
$616.8M – $717.7M
$754.8M
$718.9M – $781.6M
$824.8M
$785.6M – $854.1M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2026
Revenue Growth +37.8% +3.9% -15.8% +7.4%
Gross Profit Growth +23.2% +7.5% -22.3% -24.1%
Operating Income Growth +16.3% -7.7% -50.7% -15.5%
Net Income Growth +13.3% -12.2% -56.9% -77.5%
EBITDA Growth +17.8% +4.8% -32.1% -10.0%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:49pm (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-07 Hill Randy L A-Award 701.00 $37.64 $26,386
2026-05-07 Schroder Soren A-Award 261.00 $37.64 $9,824
2026-05-07 Schroder Soren A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Stoffel Kurt A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Hill Randy L A-Award 261.00 $37.64 $9,824
2026-05-07 Hill Randy L A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Guimaraes Enderson A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 GOODSPEED LINDA A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Clark Celeste A. A-Award 130.00 $37.64 $4,893
2026-05-07 Clark Celeste A. A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Barden Larry A-Award 261.00 $37.64 $9,824
2026-05-07 Barden Larry A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Aspell Robert Patrick A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Adair Charles L A-Award 2,650.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 MANZI JOSEPH S-Sale 3,000.00 $63.89 $191,670
2026-03-09 Finnimore Mark Joseph A-Award 2,079.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-09 Finnimore Mark Joseph F-InKind 1,113.00 $51.92 $57,787
2026-03-09 Colpaert Jeroen A-Award 9,252.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-09 Colpaert Jeroen F-InKind 4,580.00 $51.92 $237,794
2026-03-09 van der Velden Jan A-Award 14,803.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for DAR.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 16:49:39
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued cyclical at trough — fair value $70-75 anchored on $700M+ normalized FCF and Q1 2026 margin inflection; starter position at $59, add below $50, but size for the renewable diesel structural-impairment tail risk the bulls are dismissing.

The raw quarterly trajectory is the most important thing in this file and the prior models are underweighting how favorable it actually is. Revenue went $1.38B → $1.48B → $1.56B → $1.72B → $1.55B, and — more importantly — net income went -$26M → $13M → $19M → $57M → $134M. That April 2026 quarter is a 8.7% net margin, the highest in over a year, on revenue up 12% YoY. Annual NI of $63M is a trough artifact dominated by a Q1 2025 loss and a soft Q2-Q3; the run-rate exiting the period is closer to $400-500M annualized if the Q4+Q1 cadence holds. FCF of $679M against a $9.45B market cap is a ~7.2% FCF yield, and that's on trough EBITDA. The P/E of 42 (the canonical metric, not the 148x the synthesis cites) is backward-looking noise.

I largely agree with the synthesis verdict's direction — this is a cyclical at trough being mis-multipled — but I think the framing "Disconnected from Fundamentals" is overwrought and the pre-flight's "violent disagreement" language overstates the drama. EV/EBITDA of 13.95x on TTM (which itself contains trough quarters) is not screaming cheap; it's reasonable-to-cheap for a bioprocessor with real FCF. The 0.97x P/S and 1.26x P/B are the actually compelling anchors. Where I dissent from the bullish chorus: the market-forces model claims "100%+ upside" — that requires renewable diesel feedstock economics (Diamond Green Diesel JV) to revert to 2022-2023 levels, and there's no evidence in this file that's happening. The Q1 2026 NI spike could be a one-time DGD distribution or a tax item; I'd want the 10-Q before extrapolating 8.7% margins.

The contrarian case is real and the models brush past it. Revenue 3-year CAGR is -4.9%; 2023 was the cycle peak at $6.79B/$648M NI and we are structurally below that. Renewable diesel faces (a) RIN/LCFS credit price compression, (b) 45Z tax credit transition uncertainty, (c) used cooking oil import competition from China that crushed feedstock spreads, and (d) overcapacity in US renewable diesel. None of those are cyclical; some are structural. If DGD economics are permanently lower, mid-cycle earnings power isn't $4/share, it's maybe $2.50, which at a 15x multiple is $37 — well below the current $59.45. The insider data is useless (all routine May awards, no open-market buying to confirm management conviction at trough), and the balance sheet is suspiciously incomplete — no total debt disclosed, which for a capital-intensive bioprocessor that did a multi-billion DGD buildout is the single most important number missing. Darling carried roughly $4B+ in debt historically; at current EBITDA that's a leverage ratio worth worrying about, and the synthesis ignored this entirely.

Net: I land bullish but more measured than the synthesis. At $59, you're paying ~14x trough EV/EBITDA and ~1x sales for a business generating $679M FCF with a credible path to $800M-$1B if DGD stabilizes (not recovers to peak). Downside to $40 if renewable diesel is structurally impaired; upside to $80-90 if Q4/Q1 margins prove sustainable and 45Z clarity arrives. The asymmetry favors longs but not as dramatically as "100%+ upside" suggests — I'd say roughly 35% upside / 30% downside over 18 months, skewed by the fact that the most recent quarter's $134M NI print is genuinely encouraging and the FCF is real. Starter position justified; the missing debt disclosure and unconfirmed DGD margin sustainability prevent a full conviction sizing.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 16:49:44
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's modestly undervalued call — Darling's cyclical trough doesn't warrant a fair value of $70-75. Instead, fair value aligns closer to $50, reflecting structural challenges in renewable diesel and incomplete balance sheet transparency.

Darling Ingredients presents a mixed financial picture, with recent data revealing a cyclical business struggling to regain momentum. The quarterly performance shows improvement with a revenue increase from $1.38B to $1.55B over four quarters and a significant net income rise in the most recent quarter to $134.3M, reflecting an 8.7% margin. Despite these positive signals, the annual figures paint a different story, with revenue declining from a peak of $6.79B in 2023 to $6.14B in 2026, and net income plummeting from $647.7M to $62.8M over the same period. The company's free cash flow of $679.2M against a market cap of $9.45B provides a decent yield, but the P/E ratio of 42 suggests that the market is pricing in a challenging environment, likely due to renewable diesel segment concerns.

Opus asserts that Darling is a cyclical at trough, undervalued, and suggests a fair value range of $70-75. I agree with his assessment that the company is at a cyclical low, given the recent improvement in quarterly margins and free cash flow strength. However, I disagree with his valuation range. The structural issues in the renewable diesel market, highlighted by Opus, such as credit price compression and competition from China, suggest that the recovery in margins may not be as robust as anticipated. The revenue CAGR of -4.9% and the earnings CAGR of -68.9% underscore the risk of assuming a swift recovery in earnings power. Opus's reliance on a potential $800M-$1B FCF scenario seems optimistic without more concrete evidence of stabilization in the renewable diesel segment.

The Delvantic AI Findings' narrative of "Disconnected from Fundamentals" seems appropriate, but I find the language more fitting than Opus does. The valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA of 13.95x and P/S ratio of 0.97x reflect a company priced for uncertainty, yet not necessarily for bargain acquisition. The potential structural impairments in the renewable diesel segment weigh heavily against a quick return to previous earnings levels. Furthermore, the missing debt information is concerning, particularly for a capital-intensive business like Darling, which historically carried significant leverage.

A skeptic of both our views might argue that the market has already priced in much of the bad news and that the current price reflects a reasonable balance of risks and potential rewards. They would point to the absence of insider buying as a lack of confidence from management and highlight the incomplete balance sheet as a red flag. Additionally, they might question the sustainability of the recent improvement in quarterly margins, suggesting it could be a temporary anomaly rather than a sign of fundamental recovery.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 16:46:43
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-mixed, fairly valued — wait for a dip 7/10
Real cash-generative renderer with a leveraged P&L stuck mid-cycle in the renewable diesel trough — fair price, not a fat pitch, so I wait.
The cruxWhether the DGD/renewable diesel margin trough turns in the next 2-3 quarters — that single variable decides both the quality verdict (cyclical vs structural) and the valuation gap.
Company Quality
-14
Mixed
edge √Σ 99 · risk √Σ 114 · conf 6/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-25
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 50 · risk √Σ 75 · conf 5/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

Both lenses are telling me the same thing from different angles: the quality score at -14 says this is a legit cash machine being roughed up by the cycle but carrying too much debt into it, and the value score at -25 says $59 already credits a mid-cycle recovery without paying me for the leverage. That's not a setup I chase. I love that FCF actually rose to $679M through the earnings collapse, the buyback is real (338% of SBC, shares down 1.1% CAGR), and accounting is clean — those are the things that let you hold a cyclical through pain. But a 1,000bp gross margin compression and 90% earnings drop against $3.9B net debt means if RD margins stay broken into 2025, the equity gets re-rated lower, not higher. At $59 I have no margin of safety and no edge.

My play: zero position today, this goes on the watchlist with a hard bid at $48 and a scale plan down to $42. At $48 I start a 1% starter — that's mid-cycle EBITDA at trough multiples and the leverage finally compensated. I add another 1.5% at $43-44 if it gets there without a balance sheet event (watch the $137M short-term debt roll and any covenant chatter). What flips me to aggressive earlier, even at $55+, is a tangible turn in DGD/renewable diesel margins — RIN prices firming, BTC clarity, or a clean quarter where segment EBITDA inflects — because then the quality lens dominates and the cycle thesis is confirmed. What kills it: another leg down in gross margin next print, or any hint the rendering core (not just DGD) is structurally weaker. Until then, I'm patient. Fair is not a reason to buy.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
-14 Mixed edge √Σ 99 · risk √Σ 114 · conf 6/10

Darling's earnings quality looks legitimate — accruals at -3.8% of assets, OCF/NI of 4.69x, Beneish M of -2.67, and no mechanical red flags. The company is a net buyer of its own shares (diluted share CAGR -1.1%, buybacks 338% of SBC, SBC just 0.4% of revenue), which is genuinely shareholder-friendly capital discipline. FCF rebounded to $679M in the latest year, up from $507M and $342M prior, suggesting working capital release and capex moderation are real.

But the operating business is deteriorating sharply. Gross margin compressed from 26.2% (2021) to 15.8% (latest), operating margin from 18.7% to 6.4%, and net income collapsed from $738M (2022) to $63M — roughly a 90% decline. Revenue is also off the 2023 peak. This is consistent with renewable diesel/Diamond Green Diesel economics rolling over and core rendering spreads compressing, but the magnitude is severe and FCF/NI now diverges wildly (4.69x), meaning the headline earnings number is being propped up by non-cash items.

The balance sheet is the other constraint: $3.91B net debt against $88.7M liquid cash, with $137M short-term debt exceeding cash on hand. At current depressed earnings, leverage ratios are stretched. Altman Z of 2.37 sits in the grey zone — not distressed, but not comfortable. Insider activity is neutral-to-slightly-negative (14 sells, 0 buys), with awards dominating the tape.

Strengths 3
m65
Clean earnings quality
Accruals -3.8% of assets, OCF/NI 4.69x, Beneish M -2.67. No earnings manipulation signals; if anything, GAAP earnings understate cash generation.
m60
Genuine FCF generation through the downturn
FCF of $679M in the latest year — actually higher than during the earnings peak years — funds the dividend/buyback/deleveraging without external capital.
m45
Disciplined share count management
Diluted shares declined from 167.1M to 160.2M (-1.1% CAGR); SBC just 0.4% of revenue; buybacks 338% of SBC. Per-share value is being concentrated.
Concerns 4
m80
Operating margin collapse
Op margin fell from 18.7% (2021) to 6.4% (latest); net income down ~90% from $738M peak to $63M. Whether cyclical (renewable diesel/fats spreads) or structural matters enormously.
m70
Heavy net debt against compressed earnings
$3.91B net debt with only $88.7M liquid cash; short-term debt $137M exceeds cash. At $63M net income, leverage is uncomfortable; Altman Z 2.37 grey zone.
m35
Gross margin erosion
GM dropped from 26.2% to 15.8% over the period — over 1,000bps. Suggests pricing power in core rendering/specialty ingredients is weaker than the moat narrative implies, or input/output spreads have compressed materially.
m20
Insider tape skews to sales
14 sells ($5.4M) vs zero open-market buys in 12 months. Not alarming in size, but no insider conviction at depressed earnings.
This is a genuinely cash-generative, accounting-clean business that's currently being whipsawed by the renewable diesel cycle and carrying too much debt into the downturn. The buyback discipline and FCF resilience are real strengths — management isn't diluting and the cash is flowing despite the P&L collapse. But I can't ignore a 1,000bp gross margin compression and a 90% earnings drop; that's either a brutal cyclical trough (in which case quality is fine) or evidence the moat is thinner than advertised. With $3.9B net debt and Altman Z at 2.37, there's no margin for error if this isn't cyclical. Mixed is the honest grade — too cash-generative and well-run on capital allocation to call Shaky, too levered and operationally deteriorating to call Solid.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Diamond Green Diesel JV contribution and whether renewable diesel margins are cyclical or structurally impaired (BTC/PTC transition, RIN/LCFS prices)
  • Debt maturity ladder and covenant headroom against compressed EBITDA
  • Whether the $63M net income includes large non-cash impairments/JV equity losses that explain the OCF/NI divergence
  • Segment-level margin breakdown: Feed, Food, Fuel — where exactly the margin compression is concentrated
  • Capex trajectory and whether the FCF rebound is sustainable or driven by deferred investment
  • Customer/feedstock concentration in the rendering business
-25 Fairly Valued edge √Σ 50 · risk √Σ 75 · conf 5/10
Price $59.45 vs deserved ~$55-$65 on normalized mid-cycle EBITDA — essentially fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $48.00

No e2e fair-value composite was handed over, so I anchor on the business: ~$9.45B market cap plus ~$3.9B net debt = ~$13.3B EV against a packaged-foods/rendering base business (Feed + Food) that historically does $700M-$1B+ of segment EBITDA, plus a renewable diesel JV (DGD) currently in a cyclical trough. On a normalized basis (mid-cycle DGD contribution restored, gross margins partially recovering from the 1,000bp compression), $13B EV is roughly 7-8x mid-cycle EBITDA — that's a fair, not cheap, multiple for a leveraged cyclical with collapsed near-term earnings.

On trough numbers the stock looks expensive (P/E is meaningless with earnings down ~90%); on normalized numbers it looks reasonable but not a steal. The market appears to be looking through the renewable diesel cycle and crediting some recovery — which is rational but not generous. To call this clearly cheap I'd want either (a) a sub-$50 price that gives me >20% margin to mid-cycle, or (b) tangible evidence the DGD/RD margin trough has turned. Today it's a coin-flip on price: fair compensation for fair risk.

Cheap signals 2
m40
FCF and buyback support floor
Business is still cash-generative and share count is shrinking — at mid-cycle FCF, current price is ~10-12x normalized FCF, which is reasonable for a defensive rendering franchise.
m30
Optionality on RD/SAF cycle turn
If renewable diesel/SAF margins normalize, DGD earnings snap back and the stock re-rates off a much higher base — that optionality is roughly in the price but not over-priced.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
EV reflects mid-cycle, not trough
~$13.3B EV (incl. $3.9B net debt) on collapsed current earnings means the market is already crediting a DGD/renewable diesel recovery. If RD margins stay compressed through 2025, the stock is expensive on realized numbers.
m45
Leverage amplifies downside at this price
$3.9B net debt against depressed EBITDA leaves little room for further cyclical pain; equity holders bear the volatility and aren't being paid a discount to take that risk at $59.
m25
No composite fair value to lean on
Absent a synthesis number, I won't manufacture upside. Peer packaged-foods multiples (10-12x EBITDA) on trough EBITDA would put this stock materially lower; only normalization justifies $59.
I think this is fairly valued, full stop. $59 isn't asking me to believe anything heroic, but it isn't paying me for the leverage and cycle risk either. I want this 15-20% lower — call it sub-$50 — before I'd call it a real value setup, because at that price I'm getting mid-cycle earnings power for trough multiples and the balance sheet risk is actually compensated. At today's price I have no edge.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • DGD segment EBITDA run-rate and management commentary on RD/SAF margin trajectory
  • Net debt / leverage covenant headroom and any refinancing schedule
  • Feed and Food segment gross margin recovery vs the 1,000bp compression
  • Capex guidance and FCF conversion to confirm buyback can continue
  • Any one-time charges inflating the earnings collapse vs structural margin loss
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16