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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 11, 2026
12 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 11, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 20, 2026 · 8 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. (AMX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +3 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 15 · Value -7 · Sentiment -50 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V.

AMX NYSE
Communication Services · Telecom Services
Mexico City, DF 11529, Mexico americamovil.com Updated Aug 11, 12:28pm
Price
$23.55
Market Cap
$71.7B
Employees
177,545
Beta
0.27
Avg Volume
1,917,873
Last Dividend
$0.59
CEO
Lic. Daniel Hajj Aboumrad

América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. is a leading telecommunications company providing wireless and fixed-line services across Latin America and other regions. It offers mobile voice and data services, broadband internet, pay television, and enterprise solutions to a broad customer base including individuals, businesses, and governments. The company operates through key segments such as Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, the United States, and Europe, delivering integrated connectivity through its extensive network infrastructure. Notable features include advanced 4G and 5G mobile networks, fiber-optic broadband, and satellite services, supporting digital transformation in residential, corporate, and wholesale markets. Founded in 2000 and headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico, América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. plays a pivotal role in the global telecommunications sector by facilitating communication, data access, and multimedia content delivery essential for modern economies.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 11, 2026 2:28pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$23.34
as of Aug 11, 2:32pm (12d ago)
Change · Aug 11
-0.55 (-2.30%)
Day Range
$23.34 – $23.95
52-Week Range
$18.70 – $28.46
50-Day MA
$25.73
200-Day MA
$24.12
Volume
90,609.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 12d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 60,057,818,857.00
Float 850,581,911.00
Free Float 1.4%
Very low free float — 1.4% of shares trade freely, ~98.6% held by insiders/institutions
Thinly traded — expect wider bid-ask spreads and sharp price swings on modest volume. Institutional investors may avoid due to liquidity constraints.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 2:40pm (12d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:28pm (12d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V.

América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.

This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 10 annual reports, the latest filed 2025-05-14, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 11, 2026 2:27pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
1,088.99
Stock Price: $23.55
EPS (Diluted): 0.02
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
57.71
Stock Price: $23.55
Total Equity: $25.25B
Shares: 61,897,364,865
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
5.10
Market Cap: $71.66B
Total Debt: $33.17B
Cash: $2.14B
EBITDA: $20.11B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$102.7B
Market Cap: $71.66B
Total Debt: $33.17B
Cash: $2.14B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
61.9%
Gross Profit: $31.44B
Revenue: $50.79B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
20.7%
Operating Income: $10.52B
Revenue: $50.79B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
2.6%
Net Income: $1.34B
Revenue: $50.79B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
5.3%
Net Income: $1.34B
Total Equity: $25.25B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.2%
Operating Income: $10.52B
Tax Rate: 56.1%
Equity: $25.25B
Total Debt: $33.17B
Cash: $2.14B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.72
Current Assets: $20.67B
Current Liabilities: $28.89B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.31
Short-Term Debt: $6.09B
Long-Term Debt: $27.08B
Total Debt: $33.17B
Total Equity: $25.25B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$0.82
Revenue: $50.79B
Shares: 61,897,364,865
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$0.41
Total Equity: $25.25B
Shares: 61,897,364,865
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.12
Operating CF: $13.99B
CapEx: -$6.61B
Shares: 61,897,364,865
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.5%
Last Dividend: $0.59
Stock Price: $23.55
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
135.4%
Dividends Paid: -$1.81B
Net Income: $1.34B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 11, 2026 2:27pm
Compares AMX against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:28pm (12d ago)
Metric 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue $59.4B $50.0B $49.3B $47.7B $50.8B
Cost of Revenue $27.5B $19.9B $19.3B $18.5B $19.4B
Gross Profit $31.9B $30.1B $30.0B $29.2B $31.4B
Operating Expenses $22.3B $20.4B $20.0B $19.4B $20.9B
Operating Income $9.7B $9.7B $10.0B $9.8B $10.5B
Net Income $2.7B $11.2B $4.5B $4.4B $1.3B
EBITDA $19.3B $19.2B $19.3B $18.7B $20.1B
EPS $0.03 $0.06 $0.08 $0.07 $0.02
EPS (Diluted) $0.08 $0.07 $0.02
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:28pm (12d ago)
Metric 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Cash & Equivalents $2.1B $2.3B $2.0B $1.6B $2.1B
Total Current Assets $21.0B $23.6B $21.1B $19.9B $20.7B
Total Assets $95.0B $98.7B $94.6B $91.4B $104.8B
Current Liabilities $29.6B $31.2B $28.6B $30.6B $28.9B
Long-Term Debt $28.1B $24.5B $23.9B $19.9B $27.1B
Total Liabilities $76.5B $72.2B $69.0B $66.8B $79.6B
Total Equity $18.4B $26.5B $25.6B $24.6B $25.3B
Retained Earnings $18.4B $26.2B $29.5B $31.9B $30.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:28pm (12d ago)
Metric 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Operating Cash Flow $16.4B $15.1B $13.2B $14.5B $14.0B
Capital Expenditure -$6.4B -$8.5B -$8.5B -$7.7B -$6.6B
Free Cash Flow $10.0B $6.6B $4.6B $6.8B $7.4B
Acquisitions (net) -$8.9M $0 -$948.2M $0 $28.9M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$19.3B -$8.9B $2.5B $2.0B $1.7B
Dividends Paid -$560.5M -$1.6B -$1.7B -$1.8B -$1.8B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $1.1B $250.9M -$24.6M -$107.8M $408.1M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:28pm (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue Growth -15.9% -1.3% -3.4% +6.5%
Gross Profit Growth -5.9% -0.1% -2.8% +7.7%
Operating Income Growth +0.5% +2.9% -1.8% +7.3%
Net Income Growth +310.7% -60.4% -0.1% -69.9%
EBITDA Growth -0.3% +0.2% -3.0% +7.7%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:28pm (12d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-14 $0.31
2025-07-11 $0.28
2024-11-08 $0.24
2024-07-12 $0.26
2023-11-09 $0.26
2023-07-13 $0.27
2022-09-28 $0.36
2022-08-25 $0.44
2021-11-04 $0.20
2021-07-15 $0.20
2020-10-23 $0.19
2020-06-17 $0.17
2019-11-07 $0.18
2019-07-11 $0.19
2018-11-08 $0.16
2018-07-10 $0.17
2017-10-26 $0.16
2017-06-28 $0.17
2016-10-27 $0.13
2016-07-19 $0.15
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 11 computed · 6 not applicable · 7 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for AMX — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-11
The creme is there an opportunity here? Conditional opportunity
AI is not the threat to América Móvil — it is a margin lever and a quiet demand tailwind for the fiber and sites it already owns; the only question is whether the savings survive LatAm price competition.
Exposure is genuinely low (38) because the scarce asset is physical, so the AI case rests on ai_margin_conversion (63) — automating one of the region's largest care and field workforces — plus an underpriced scarcity_migration angle (69) as inference demand forces compute into local facilities on AMX fiber. The kill switch is intermediation (41) and unit deflation (57): more traffic with no take rate means capex without pricing. Watch segment EBITDA margin against ARPU in Mexico and Brazil, and any data-centre/enterprise-connectivity revenue disclosure — that line reveals whether AI demand lands on AMX's balance sheet or merely passes over it.
59
AI Position
Mildly favorable — physical scarcity holds, value capture is the doubt
AI cannot reproduce spectrum, fiber or right-of-way, so América Móvil's core asset is safe; the open question is whether AI-driven traffic and internal automation reach the P&L or get competed into cheaper gigabytes.
Exposure 38 Confidence 66 50 = neutral
Primary Tailwind

AMX runs one of the largest customer-care, retail and field-service labor pools in Latin America across 17 countries; Spanish/Portuguese-capable agents plus AI-driven network self-optimization attack a cost base that has already been improving (GM 53.7%→61.9% since 2020) without touching pricing.

Primary Pressure

The classic dumb-pipe trap: AI applications inflate data and backhaul volumes and force continued capex, while per-gigabyte and per-line pricing keeps deflating and the intelligence/services layer customers value is captured by hyperscalers and model vendors, not the carrier.

Critical Hinge

Whether automation savings stick as margin or get handed to subscribers in competitive Mexico and Brazil price wars — watch EBITDA margin and opex-per-subscriber trends against ARPU in the two biggest segments.

Hard to Reproduce

Spectrum licenses, last-mile fiber, tower and duct footprint, submarine cable, national retail distribution and municipal right-of-way across 17 regulatory regimes — none of which cheap software creates.

Forensic fingerprint same 11 factors for every stock · 0 unfavorable · 50 neutral · 100 favorable
Underlying Need Persistence do people still need this at all? 94
Connectivity demand rises with every AI use case.
AI agents, video and cloud inference all consume bandwidth; the need for mobile and fixed access in Latin America is structurally growing, not eroding.
data traffic growth per subscriber · fixed broadband net adds · postpaid subscriber mix shift
relevance 72 · confidence 90
Solution Persistence will they still solve it this way? 83
Licensed radio and fiber remain the only delivery route.
No software substitute exists for spectrum and last-mile plant; the credible alternative is LEO satellite, a capital story rather than an AI story.
LEO satellite direct-to-cell traction · rural subscriber churn · fixed-wireless vs fiber mix
relevance 68 · confidence 80
Intelligence Commoditization does cheap AI power them or copy them? 56
Cheap AI powers AMX's operations but commoditizes its value-added layer.
Automation lowers care and network-planning cost, yet the digital services and content AMX hoped to upsell become free commodities delivered over its own pipe.
digital/value-added revenue per user · AI care deflection rates · enterprise managed-services margin
relevance 62 · confidence 68
Responsibility Transfer are they paid to take the blame? 46
Modest liability role, mostly enterprise SLAs and regulated coverage duties.
Consumers do not pay AMX to absorb risk; enterprise and government contracts carry uptime and data-residency obligations that AI-native providers cannot assume without licenses.
government/enterprise contract wins · regulated coverage obligation costs · data-residency mandates in LatAm
relevance 34 · confidence 62
Scarcity Migration do their assets get rarer or more common? 69
Spectrum, fiber routes and power-adjacent sites gain relative value as compute demand localizes.
As intelligence becomes abundant, the bottlenecks become bandwidth, latency and local capacity — assets AMX already owns and cannot be reproduced by code.
spectrum auction outcomes in Mexico · fiber route kilometers added · data-centre capacity announcements
relevance 80 · confidence 72
Customer DIY Preference will customers just build it themselves? 79
Nobody self-builds a national network; private 5G nibbles only at the edge.
Even AI-empowered enterprises will not internalize spectrum, towers and field maintenance; the DIY threat is confined to campus private networks.
private 5G deployments by large enterprises · enterprise connectivity churn · MVNO wholesale share
relevance 52 · confidence 78
AI Intermediation Position do AI agents go through them or around them? 41
Agents ride over AMX rather than through it — traffic without take rate.
AI assistants intermediate the customer relationship for commerce, media and support, leaving AMX as transport; the OTT displacement of voice and SMS is the precedent.
ARPU trend vs traffic growth · bundling deals with AI/cloud vendors · zero-rating and partnership economics
relevance 70 · confidence 66
Data Leverage does their data make AI better? 44
Rich subscriber and network data, weak monetization path.
Usage and location data improve churn prediction and capex targeting internally, but privacy regimes and lack of an advertising platform cap external value.
churn rate improvement · capex efficiency per added gigabyte · any advertising/data product launch
relevance 48 · confidence 58
AI Margin Conversion do the AI savings become profit? 63
Largest and most credible channel: automating a vast labor base in a still-competitive market.
Care centres, retail and truck rolls are a heavy cost line; margins have expanded steadily, but Mexican and Brazilian price competition can force savings into tariffs.
EBITDA margin by segment · headcount and opex per subscriber · ARPU stability alongside cost cuts
relevance 85 · confidence 64
Revenue Unit Durability does the thing they charge for survive? 57
Subscriber lines endure; the price per unit of data keeps deflating.
The monetised unit survives AI but has no pricing power against it — more usage does not translate into proportional revenue, evidenced by flat industry revenue at ~1% CAGR.
blended ARPU trajectory · regulatory price interventions in Mexico · capex-to-revenue ratio
relevance 75 · confidence 70
Entrant Compression how easily can newcomers copy them? 67
Cheap software does not build networks, but it does lower operating skill barriers.
Capital and licenses still block entry, yet AI-assisted network operations plus open RAN let smaller rivals and MVNOs run leaner, compressing AMX's scale cost advantage.
MVNO and challenger subscriber share · open RAN adoption by rivals · competitor opex per subscriber
relevance 58 · confidence 70

AI Lens thesis

AI reaches AMX through three narrow channels rather than one broad one: demand (more traffic, some enterprise cloud/edge and data-centre colocation revenue in markets where local compute must sit near LatAm fiber, which AMX owns), cost (call centres, retail, truck rolls, network planning — the largest and most credible line), and value capture (negative: the intelligent layer atop connectivity migrates to third parties, and OTT already stripped voice and SMS a decade ago, so the remaining monetised unit is essentially deflating bandwidth). The scarce asset is physical and gets more, not less, important as inference demand pushes data into regional facilities; the risk is that AMX funds that traffic with capex while others monetise it. Net: modestly favourable, low-magnitude exposure — AI is a margin story and a capex story here, not an existential one.

Thesis breaker If Mexico/Brazil opex-per-subscriber falls while EBITDA margin stalls, the automation gains are being priced away and the cost thesis is dead; conversely, sustained data-centre and enterprise-connectivity revenue growth above 15% would prove AI demand is landing on AMX's fiber.
What the market may be underestimating

Upside LatAm data-sovereignty and latency requirements make local AI capacity mandatory, and AMX holds the fiber routes, land, power interconnects and submarine cable that any regional colocation build needs — a monetisation path the market values at roughly zero today.

Downside AI-assisted network engineering and open RAN lower the operational skill barrier for smaller rivals and MVNOs, eroding the scale-driven cost advantage that has been AMX's real moat, just as LEO satellite entrants attack the rural subscriber base.

Outcome range spread 37

38Bear case
58Central case
75Bull case
Three headline numbers, deliberately never blended: Position (which way), Exposure (how much it matters at all), Confidence (how sure). The fingerprint asks every stock the same 11 questions so companies a sector label would lump together get told apart. Not an input to GEM/Coal or the Q/V/S lenses.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-11 14:39:16
Verdict Synthesis is broken — AMX is fairly-to-modestly undervalued at $23.55 on a 5x EV/EBITDA and 10x FCF basis; fair value $26-30, hold for yield + modest rerating, not a growth story.

The synthesis verdict here is nonsense on its face and needs to be dismissed before anything else. A "composite fair value" of $1.39 on a telecom generating $13.99B in operating cash flow and $7.38B in FCF against a $71.66B market cap implies a ~9.7% FCF yield — that is not an overvalued asset by any recognizable framework. The DCF model is clearly choking on the depressed 2024 net income ($1.34B vs $4.45B in 2023 and $11.24B in 2021) and extrapolating a collapse. The P/E of 1,089x is a garbage number driven by an earnings trough almost certainly reflecting FX translation losses and non-cash items — EV/EBITDA of 5.1x on the annual basis is the honest multiple and it's cheap, not expensive. The TTM EV/EBITDA anomaly at 73x is almost certainly a data error or a one-quarter EBITDA collapse worth investigating, not a regime change; operating income was $10.52B in 2024, up from $9.80B in 2023.

My independent read: this is a mature LatAm telecom trading at ~5x EV/EBITDA, ~10x FCF, with a 2.5% dividend, $33B of debt against $25B of equity (D/E 1.31 — normal for telecom), and $2.14B of cash. Revenue has been flat-to-declining in dollar terms ($59B in 2020 → $50.8B in 2024) which is almost entirely peso/real translation, not subscriber attrition. FCF CAGR of 26% while reported revenue drifts sideways tells you the underlying business is fine and capex intensity is normalizing post-5G buildout ($6.61B capex on $14B OCF is a healthy 47% reinvestment rate for a telecom). ROIC of 8.2% against a debt cost that's likely 7-9% in LatAm currencies is thin but not destructive. The payout ratio of 135% is a red flag on paper but meaningless when net income is artificially depressed — payout against FCF is roughly 24%, entirely sustainable.

Where I part ways with the Market Forces "value trap / uninvestable" call: that's a narrative overlay, not a numerical argument. AMX has been a value stock for a decade and has still compounded cash returns to shareholders via buybacks (share count reduction is a big part of the América Móvil story) and dividends. Calling it "uninvestable" while it throws off $7.4B of FCF is analyst theater. The Narrative Economics layer is closer to right — this is a fallen-angel/bond-proxy with durable-but-passive holders, and the DCF gap is model fragility, not opportunity or trap. The honest contrarian argument against my read: LatAm telecom is genuinely structurally challenged, Brazil competition (after the Oi carve-up) is intensifying, Mexican regulatory pressure on AMX as the preponderant economic agent is chronic, and if MXN/BRL weaken another 15% the dollar-denominated cash flows shrink further. The 6.5% recent revenue YoY is encouraging but one data point.

What's thin: I have no quarterly revenue/NI table (the section is blank), so I can't verify the earnings trajectory into 2025 or check whether the TTM EBITDA collapse the anomaly flags is real. I don't have segment detail (Brazil vs Mexico vs Colombia vs Austria/TKA divestiture accounting). The -69.9% recent earnings YoY needs a source — if it's FX translation or a one-time charge, irrelevant; if it's operational, the thesis weakens materially. Insider activity isn't shown. On balance, though, the cash flow statement is the tell: $14B OCF and growing FCF don't lie the way GAAP net income does in emerging-market telecoms.

I dissent from the synthesis verdict of "overvalued" and reject the $0.91 signal-adjusted fair value as a modeling artifact. I also dissent from Market Forces' "uninvestable" framing. My read: AMX is fairly valued to modestly undervalued at $23.55, with fair value in the $26-30 range based on a 6-6.5x EV/EBITDA rerating (in line with global telecom peers like TEF, VOD, T which trade at 6-7x) plus the FCF yield of ~10% providing downside support. This isn't a table-pounder — the growth is genuinely absent, FX is a real headwind, and the "cheap for a reason" bear case has merit. But calling a $7.4B FCF generator at 10x FCF "overvalued by 96%" is the model breaking, not insight.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-11 14:39:35
Verdict Fair to modestly undervalued at $23.55 — the scary P/E is noise, while 5.1x EV/EBITDA and ~9.7x FCF look reasonable-to-cheap for a stable 20%+ margin telecom; upside likely limited unless net income normalizes.

What stands out is how wrong the headline multiples are for understanding this business. A 1,089x P/E and 58x P/B are not telling you América Móvil is some absurdly expensive glamour stock; they are telling you 2024 net income of just $1.34B is a poor proxy for underlying earning power and that book value is not the right anchor for a telecom with a huge depreciated asset base, FX translation noise, and leverage. The operating business actually looks steady: 2024 revenue rose to $50.79B from $47.68B, operating income improved to $10.52B from $9.80B, operating margin held a very solid 20.7%, and operating cash flow was $13.99B against $6.61B of capex, leaving $7.38B of free cash flow. On enterprise value metrics, 5.1x EV/EBITDA and 2.0x EV/revenue are much closer to economic reality than the equity multiples. For a scaled incumbent telecom generating mid-teens cash yield on equity market value, this does not screen as expensive.

The real story is a classic disconnect between stable operations and noisy bottom-line accounting. Over five years, revenue has been basically flat to slightly up, moving from $49.99B in 2021 to $50.79B in 2024 after a weak 2020 base of $59.42B that likely reflected FX translation more than core demand. Meanwhile operating profit has been remarkably resilient, staying in a narrow $9.66B-$10.52B band from 2020 through 2024. Net income, by contrast, has swung from $11.24B in 2021 to $4.45B in 2022 and 2023 to $1.34B in 2024. When op income is stable but net income collapses, I do not default to “business deterioration”; I default to below-the-line items, financing costs, currency losses, and tax effects. With $33.17B of debt and just $2.14B of cash, AMX absolutely has balance-sheet risk, but the debt load has to be judged against cash generation, not against one depressed earnings print. Net debt of roughly $31B versus annual operating cash flow of $14B is manageable for a telecom of this scale, especially when free cash flow covers the dividend several times over despite the misleading 135% payout ratio.

That leads me to the key conclusion: this looks more fairly valued to modestly undervalued than overvalued. At a $71.66B market cap, the stock trades at about 9.7x 2024 free cash flow and around 6.8x operating income, which is not demanding for a defensive telecom franchise still growing reported revenue 6.5% year over year. The market is already charging a heavy discount for LatAm FX, regulation, and leverage. If anything, the “overvalued by 96%” style output is a model failure caused by using near-zero earnings and fragile assumptions, not a serious read of what the assets are worth. This is not a growth story and not a clean compounder, but neither is it a melting ice cube from the numbers here. Stable gross margin around 61.9%, stable operating margins above 20%, and strong free cash flow are the opposite of a business in economic collapse.

The strongest case against my read is straightforward: earnings quality may be worse than I’m giving it credit for, and leverage may matter more in a higher-rate, weaker-currency world. Recent earnings fell nearly 70% year over year, the current ratio is only 0.72, debt-to-equity is 1.31, and return on equity of 5.3% is mediocre. If the gap between $10.52B of operating income and $1.34B of net income reflects not one-off FX noise but structurally higher interest expense and recurring currency losses, then equity holders are exposed to a business that works for creditors first and shareholders second. On that view, 5.1x EV/EBITDA is not cheap but appropriate, because telecoms with low growth, regulatory risk, and heavy capex often stay cheap for years. I weigh that bear case less heavily because 2024 free cash flow of $7.38B is simply too large relative to the equity value to ignore; if the economics were truly deteriorating, I would expect operating margins and cash conversion to be cracking, and they are not.

What would change my mind is not another P/E anomaly but evidence that cash generation is slipping or that below-the-line weakness is becoming permanent. If the next annual result shows operating income falling materially below $10B, free cash flow dropping under $5.5B without a temporary capex explanation, or net debt rising above $34B-$35B while revenue growth stalls, I would move bearish quickly because the equity cushion would start to look thin. Conversely, if AMX can show another year of revenue above $52B, operating income above $10.5B, and net income rebounding even partway back toward the $3B-$4B range, the current price would look too low for the cash flows on offer. As it stands, this is a cash-rich operating franchise with messy reported earnings, and the market already knows it is messy.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-11 14:40:21
Verdict Undervalued cash-flow compounder at $23.55 — ~5.1x EV/EBITDA and ~10% FCF yield already discount EM/FX risk; ignore broken P/E and $1 fair-value prints

The numbers that matter for América Móvil are not the ones screaming on the ratio sheet. Operating income rose to $10.52B in 2024 from $9.80B the prior year on revenue of $50.79B (+6.5% YoY), gross margin held at 61.9%, and operating margin expanded to 20.7%. Free cash flow of $7.38B against a $71.66B equity value is a ~10.3% FCF yield, supported by $13.99B of operating cash flow after $6.61B of capex—exactly the profile of a scaled LatAm wireless incumbent harvesting network density, not a broken business. Net income’s collapse to $1.34B from $4.45B is almost entirely below the operating line; the P/E of 1,089 and the payout ratio above 1.3x are artifacts of that one-year earnings trough, not of cash economics. The usable multiple is EV/EBITDA at ~5.1x (EV roughly $103B on net debt of ~$31B), which is a deep-discount infrastructure print, not a growth print. Revenue CAGR of 1.5% over five years and the step-down from the 2020 $59B base confirm this is a mature, FX-exposed cash compounder, not the “high_growth_profitable” archetype the rules engine assigned.

The canonical P/S of 28.7x and P/B of 57x are simply wrong relative to the stated market cap and book equity of $25.25B (implying a real P/B near 2.8x and P/S near 1.4x); they are share-class or currency-unit noise and should be ignored. Likewise the valuation synthesis fair value of $0.91–$1.39 is a model failure—almost certainly peso/ADR unit confusion or terminal-growth stress under FX assumptions—and is useless as a price anchor. What the market is actually paying is roughly two turns of EV/revenue and five turns of EV/EBITDA for a business still generating mid-teens returns on invested operating capital (ROIC 8.2% on the stated base, with operating earnings far healthier than net). FCF CAGR of 26% alongside flat-to-up operating profit is the real story: capital intensity is being managed, and cash conversion is improving even as reported earnings are noisy.

The strongest case against this read is straightforward and should not be waved away. Earnings power as reported has been violently unstable (earnings CAGR –45%, 2024 NI down ~70% YoY), net debt of $31B against thin cash of $2.14B and a current ratio of 0.72 leaves limited balance-sheet cushion if Mexican or Brazilian rates, regulation, or FX move hard, and a 2.5% dividend yield with a NI-based payout above 100% will look unsustainable to any screen that ignores FCF. Sector lag, macro headwinds, and the “fallen angel / bond-masquerading-as-equity” narrative are coherent bear framing: if wireless ARPU keeps compressing and spectrum/capex reaccelerates, the 5x EBITDA multiple is a value trap, not a gift. I weigh that risk as real but already largely in the price; the operating line and FCF have not deteriorated in parallel with NI, so the trap thesis requires the cash engine itself to break, not merely more FX translation losses.

I would flip to a clear overvalued or avoid stance if 2025 operating income falls below ~$9.5B, FCF drops under $5B, or net leverage pushes sustainably above ~3.5x EBITDA without a corresponding cut in shareholder distributions. Confirmation of the undervalued case would be two consecutive years of NI normalizing back above $3.5–4B with FCF holding above $7B, which would collapse the headline P/E and force a re-rating toward 6.5–7.5x EV/EBITDA.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 8.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), plus AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-11 14:49:08
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip; nibble only 6/10
Fairly-priced EM telecom cash cow with a soft sentiment drift and a durable physical moat — hold quality, but I want it lower before I do real work.
The cruxWhether I get the high-teens entry that turns a Solid+15 quality name from a fair-value hold into an actual margin-of-safety buy.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from AMX's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+15
Solid
edge √Σ 112 · risk √Σ 96 · conf 7/10

America Movil throws off consistent free cash flow (7.38B in 2024, 6.84B in 2023, averaging roughly 7B) on a stable revenue base around 48-51B. Gross margin has expanded from 53.7% in 2020 to 61.9% in 2024, and operating margin has crept up from 16.3% to 20.7% — a quietly improving unit economics story typical of a scaled telecom shedding lower-margin lines. Earnings quality looks clean: OCF/NI at 4.8x, accruals -10.1% of assets, Beneish M -2.97, all pointing to conservative reporting rather than earnings inflation. Diluted share count is drifting down at roughly 1.7% per year, so per-share value is being concentrated. The soft spot is the balance sheet: net debt around 31B against only 2.14B of liquid cash, and short-term debt of 6.09B already exceeds cash on hand, meaning the company lives on continuous access to debt markets. Altman Z of 1.67 flags this, though Z is a blunt tool for a regulated, asset-heavy telecom with predictable cash flows. Net income was volatile (11.24B in 2021, 1.34B in 2024) — likely FX and non-cash items given the EM currency exposure, but worth confirming. Overall: a durable, cash-generating franchise with disciplined per-share behavior, held back from a higher grade by structural leverage and the refinancing treadmill.

Strengths 4
m70
Consistent free cash generation
FCF of 7.38B (2024), 6.84B (2023), 4.62B (2022), 6.60B (2021), 10.05B (2020) — self-funding across the cycle on a 50B revenue base.
m55
Margin expansion
Gross margin rose from 53.7% (2020) to 61.9% (2024); operating margin from 16.3% to 20.7% — quiet operating leverage in a mature business.
m50
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI at 4.8x, accruals -10.1% of assets, Beneish M -2.97 — reported earnings are backed by (and understate) cash generation.
m45
Share count shrinking
Diluted share CAGR of -1.7% — net buyer of its own stock, concentrating per-share value rather than diluting.
Concerns 4
m65
Structural leverage
Net debt of roughly 31B against only 2.14B liquid cash (3% of market cap); Altman Z 1.67 flags the distress zone even if telecom cash flows soften the signal.
m50
Near-term refinancing exposure
Short-term debt of 6.09B exceeds liquid cash of 2.14B — company depends on continuous access to credit markets, not internal liquidity, to roll maturities.
m40
Net income volatility
Net income swung from 11.24B (2021) to 4.45B (2022-2023) to 1.34B (2024) despite steady revenue and rising operating margin — suggests material FX or non-operating items driving the bottom line.
m30
Flat top line
Revenue has drifted from 59.42B (2020) to 50.79B (2024) — the business is optimizing margins and cash, not growing scale.
This reads like a mature EM telecom incumbent doing the right things at the operating level — margins up, cash flow steady, share count down, reported numbers backed by real cash. What keeps me from grading it higher is the balance sheet: 31B of net debt with only 2.14B of cash and short-term debt already above that cash line means the business is structurally dependent on debt markets. That is normal for telecom, but it is not a fortress. Net income volatility (11B down to 1B while operating margin rose) tells me FX and non-cash items dominate the bottom line, which I'd want to unpack before assuming the earnings shape. Solid, durable, well-run — but hemmed in by leverage.
Verify before trusting this (7)
  • Composition of the 1.34B 2024 net income vs 4.45B in 2023 — how much is FX translation, monetary position, or one-off tax/impairment
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted average cost of debt — how exposed is the 6.09B short-term stack to rate resets
  • Currency mix of debt vs cash flows (peso, real, dollar) — natural hedge or mismatch
  • Capex intensity and 5G/fiber spend trajectory — is FCF sustainable or a harvest phase
  • Regulatory posture in Mexico (IFT) and Brazil — dominant-carrier remedies that could compress pricing
  • Buyback vs dividend policy and whether share reduction continues at scale
  • Segment-level revenue and subscriber trends to test whether the flat top line masks mix shift
Valuation / Mispricing
-7
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 29 · risk √Σ 36 · conf 5/10
Price $23.34 vs a sanity-checked deserved value in roughly the $20-25 zone — call it flat, no margin of safety either way. attractive below $19.50

The e2e synthesis prints a composite fair value of $1.39 and signal-adjusted $0.91 against a $23.34 price, implying -96% upside. That is not a real answer — those methods (anchored PE of $0.37, EPV floor $1.34, DCF $2.05) are clearly mis-scaled for a $71.7B market cap incumbent generating tens of billions in EBITDA across 17 countries. I discard the composite as a runaway output rather than treat it as gospel. What the price actually embeds is a mature EM telecom with steady margins, shrinking share count, and ~$31B net debt — a bond-like cash cow trading at a typical global telecom multiple. On that frame, deserved value is roughly in-line with today's quote, not a fraction of it. The bull case (undervalued LatAm blue chip, dividend, buybacks) and bear case (structural decline, FX, Mexico regulation, Brazil execution) largely offset, which is the textbook definition of fairly valued. Company-Quality is Solid, not Exceptional — leverage caps the deserved multiple. Earnings quality is good, so no haircut, but nothing here argues the market is meaningfully mispricing the equity either way. I would want a real margin of safety (mid-to-high teens) before calling it cheap.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Buybacks and steady cash flow
Share count is shrinking and cash generation is consistent across 17 countries — supports deserved value at least at current levels and provides a floor via capital return.
m15
E2e fair values not credible
Composite FV of $1.39 on a $71.7B cap incumbent is a scaling artifact, not a signal; ignoring it removes the only 'overvalued' evidence in the pack.
Rich / priced-in 2
m30
Leverage caps deserved multiple
$31B net debt vs $2.14B cash means the equity carries real financial risk; a mature EM telecom with this balance sheet does not deserve a premium multiple, keeping deserved value close to, not above, spot.
m20
Structural sector headwinds already contested
Telecom is low-growth with FX and regulatory drag in Mexico and Brazil execution risk; these are real reasons the multiple stays modest rather than re-rates.
I do not believe the -96% e2e output for a second — that is a broken model, not a mispricing. Stripping it out, AMX at $23.34 looks like a fairly priced mature EM telecom: solid operations, real leverage, no obvious gap between price and deserved value. I would need it in the high teens to get interested; at today's quote it is a hold-quality dividend name, not an edge.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Mexico wireless ARPU and regulatory updates (IFT rulings)
  • Brazil integration progress and margin trajectory post-Oi assets
  • FX exposure and hedging disclosure in latest 20-F
  • Net debt / EBITDA trend and refinancing schedule
  • Dividend and buyback pace vs free cash flow
General Sentiment
-50
Headwind
tail √Σ 39 · head √Σ 94 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly risk-on, but with a beta of 0.27 AMX barely participates in that lift - defensive LatAm telecom is exactly the profile that gets left behind when money chases higher-octane names. So the market-wide tailwind lands as almost nothing here, while the stock-specific pressure is asymmetrically negative. The active narrative is a low-intensity, durable 'fallen-angel cash cow' - no cult, no story engine, just a yield/scarcity thesis that does not attract marginal buyers in a risk-on regime. Recent news flow reinforces the bear frame: an 11.1% three-month slide is now being explained by Brazil competition and FX, Mexico prepaid re-registration rules cloud the subscriber print, and an analyst piece explicitly flags 'premium valuation raises the bar' - a soft downgrade of tone. Net: the pressure is a persistent, ordinary headwind rather than a decisive one, because the narrative is minimal and the beta is tiny, but there is no visible tailwind to offset it.

Tailwinds 2
m30
Low-beta shelter if tape rolls
Beta 0.27 and a yield/scarcity frame mean any VIX spike or risk-off rotation would relatively favor AMX - a latent, not active, tailwind.
m25
Momentum quietly turning up
Recent 6.5% vs 1.5% long-term CAGR hints buyers are nibbling on the fallen-angel setup despite the 3-month drawdown - a mild counter to the negative news tone.
Headwinds 4
m55
Fallen-angel narrative with no engine
Minimal-intensity, low-cult story means no marginal narrative buyer; in a risk-on tape capital rotates to growth/AI, leaving defensive LatAm telecom to drift.
m50
News flow is uniformly cautionary
Three fresh headlines all frame the stock negatively - Mexico prepaid rules clouding subs, Brazil rivalry plus FX blamed for an 11.1% three-month drop, and premium-valuation skepticism.
m45
EM/FX overhang on a peso-denominated cash flow story
With 10y at 4.65% and a strong-dollar backdrop, LatAm telecoms carry a translation and rate-differential penalty that keeps foreign flows tepid.
m35
Risk-on tape leaves defensives behind
Risk-on +47 with VIX 15.5 is exactly the regime where low-beta LatAm incumbents underperform on a relative basis, starving the name of flows.
Net headwind, but a soft one. There is no active bull narrative to defend AMX and the news tape is quietly negative on Brazil, FX and Mexican regulation, while a risk-on market gives this low-beta defensive nothing to ride. It is not a crisis - the story is durable and dull, not breaking - so the pressure is a persistent drift lower rather than a de-rating. I lean modestly negative on sentiment until either FX stabilizes or the tape turns risk-off and the yield bid re-engages.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the Mexico prepaid registration deadlines produce a visible subscriber miss in the next print
  • BRL and MXN moves vs USD - a stable/stronger LatAm FX would flip the tone quickly
  • Any analyst target revisions following the 11.1% slide - capitulation cuts often mark the low in tone
  • A rotation signal (VIX >20 or S&P pullback) that would reactivate the defensive/yield bid
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
+30
Mildly favorable — physical scarcity holds, value capture is the doubt
opp √Σ 93 · thr √Σ 0 · conf 7/10

AI reaches AMX through three narrow channels rather than one broad one: demand (more traffic, some enterprise cloud/edge and data-centre colocation revenue in markets where local compute must sit near LatAm fiber, which AMX owns), cost (call centres, retail, truck rolls, network planning — the largest and most credible line), and value capture (negative: the intelligent layer atop connectivity migrates to third parties, and OTT already stripped voice and SMS a decade ago, so the remaining monetised unit is essentially deflating bandwidth). The scarce asset is physical and gets more, not less, important as inference demand pushes data into regional facilities; the risk is that AMX funds that traffic with capex while others monetise it. Net: modestly favourable, low-magnitude exposure — AI is a margin story and a capex story here, not an existential one.

AI opportunities 6
m63
Underlying Need Persistence
Connectivity demand rises with every AI use case.
m45
Solution Persistence
Licensed radio and fiber remain the only delivery route.
m30
Scarcity Migration
Spectrum, fiber routes and power-adjacent sites gain relative value as compute demand localizes.
m30
Customer DIY Preference
Nobody self-builds a national network; private 5G nibbles only at the edge.
m22
AI Margin Conversion
Largest and most credible channel: automating a vast labor base in a still-competitive market.
m20
Entrant Compression
Cheap software does not build networks, but it does lower operating skill barriers.
AI threats 0

None surfaced.

AI is not the threat to América Móvil — it is a margin lever and a quiet demand tailwind for the fiber and sites it already owns; the only question is whether the savings survive LatAm price competition. Exposure is genuinely low (38) because the scarce asset is physical, so the AI case rests on ai_margin_conversion (63) — automating one of the region's largest care and field workforces — plus an underpriced scarcity_migration angle (69) as inference demand forces compute into local facilities on AMX fiber. The kill switch is intermediation (41) and unit deflation (57): more traffic with no take rate means capex without pricing. Watch segment EBITDA margin against ARPU in Mexico and Brazil, and any data-centre/enterprise-connectivity revenue disclosure — that line reveals whether AI demand lands on AMX's balance sheet or merely passes over it.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • EBITDA margin by segment
  • headcount and opex per subscriber
  • ARPU stability alongside cost cuts
  • spectrum auction outcomes in Mexico
  • fiber route kilometers added
  • data-centre capacity announcements
  • blended ARPU trajectory
  • regulatory price interventions in Mexico
The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Unavailable View weakness chain →

Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for AMX — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06