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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Biogen Inc. (BIIB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -43 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 2 · Value -73 · Sentiment -1 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $154.66 vs $219.71 at analysis
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Biogen Inc.
BIIB NASDAQBiogen Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and delivering therapies for serious neurological, neurodegenerative, and rare diseases. Biogen’s current portfolio includes treatments for multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer’s disease, spinal muscular atrophy, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and Friedreich’s ataxia, along with therapies and biosimilars used in specialized immunology and related areas. The company also advances medicines through its research and development programs, with a strong emphasis on neuroscience and immunology. Based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Biogen serves patients and healthcare providers across multiple global markets through its commercial products and collaborations. Its role in the financial market is shaped by its concentration in specialty biopharmaceuticals, recurring demand for chronic-disease treatments, and continued activity in pipeline development and product commercialization.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 8.79
Total Equity: $18.26B
Shares: 147,100,000
Total Debt: $6.29B
Cash: $3.01B
EBITDA: $2.34B
Total Debt: $6.29B
Cash: $3.01B
Revenue: $9.89B
Revenue: $9.89B
Revenue: $9.89B
Total Equity: $18.26B
Tax Rate: 16.9%
Equity: $18.26B
Total Debt: $6.29B
Cash: $3.01B
Current Liabilities: $3.35B
Long-Term Debt: $6.29B
Total Debt: $6.29B
Total Equity: $18.26B
Shares: 147,100,000
Shares: 147,100,000
CapEx: -$153.80M
Shares: 147,100,000
Stock Price: $220.77
Net Income: $1.29B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:08pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.0B | $10.2B | $9.8B | $9.7B | $9.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $2.4B |
| Gross Profit | $8.9B | $7.9B | $7.3B | $7.4B | $7.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $6.0B | $4.3B | $6.0B | $5.5B | $5.9B |
| Operating Income | $2.8B | $3.6B | $1.3B | $1.9B | $1.6B |
| Net Income | $1.6B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.3B |
| EBITDA | $3.3B | $4.1B | $1.8B | $2.6B | $2.3B |
| EPS | $10.44 | $20.96 | $8.02 | $11.21 | $8.83 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $10.40 | $20.87 | $7.97 | $11.18 | $8.79 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 7:00am (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.3B | $3.4B | $1.0B | $2.4B | $3.0B |
| Total Current Assets | $7.9B | $9.8B | $6.9B | $7.5B | $9.0B |
| Total Assets | $23.9B | $24.6B | $26.8B | $28.0B | $29.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $4.3B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $5.5B | $3.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.3B | $6.3B | $6.9B | $6.3B | $6.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $12.9B | $11.2B | $12.0B | $11.3B | $11.2B |
| Total Equity | $11.0B | $13.4B | $14.8B | $16.7B | $18.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $13.9B | $16.5B | $17.6B | $19.3B | $20.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:08pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.6B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $2.9B | $2.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$258.1M | -$240.3M | -$277.0M | -$153.7M | -$153.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.4B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $2.7B | $2.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | -$6.9B | -$1.1B | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | $0 | $187.3M | -$650.0M | -$16.9M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.8B | -$750.0M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:08pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -7.4% | -3.3% | -1.6% | +2.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -11.0% | -7.5% | +0.9% | +1.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +26.4% | -63.9% | +47.0% | -18.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +95.8% | -61.9% | +40.6% | -20.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | +23.5% | -56.4% | +44.0% | -9.4% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 18:59A +1σ run of quarters pays -34%; a −1σ run costs 76%. Ratio -0.5:1 (μ 0.2%, σ 5.3% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 0.0 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($219.71) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +1% | 28.8% | $225.35 | +3% |
| Base — stabilizes | +0% | 25.0% | $196.19 | -11% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +0% | 21.3% | $167.40 | -24% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -7% | 13.8% | $87.47 | -60% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +6% | 15.0% | $144.84 | -34% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -5% | 7.1% | $53.24 | -76% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-26 12:21The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue has bounced in a $2.28-2.65B band for eight quarters with no directional trend, and Q4'25 printed a $48.9M net loss on $2.28B — the worst quarter in the series. Q1'26 recovered to $2.48B and $319.5M NI, but that's still below the $2.65B/$634.8M peak from Q2'25. Full-year 2025 revenue of $9.89B was up 2.2% YoY, but operating income *fell* from $1.91B to $1.56B and net income dropped from $1.63B to $1.29B — so the top-line stabilization is being offset by margin compression (operating margin 15.7% vs 19.7% prior year, and vs 35% in 2022). ROIC of 6% on $18.3B of equity is genuinely poor for a specialty pharma with 75.7% gross margins — this is a company earning below its cost of capital while the market pays 25x for it.
On the prior models: the synthesis fair value of $165-178 vs $220.77 looks directionally right but the composite is doing a lot of work to be that generous. A no-growth business earning $1.29B with declining operating income arguably deserves a 12-15x multiple, not 25x — that's $15-19B market cap, or $105-130/share, well below the DCF anchor. The pre-flight "deep-value" tag is wrong; deep-value implies a cheap multiple with optionality, but 25x trailing on shrinking earnings is the opposite. The narrative layer's "fallen-angel with fragile Lecanemab hope" framing is the most honest read here — you're paying a 24% premium to DCF for execution on a drug whose real-world uptake has repeatedly disappointed sell-side models. The thesis eval landing at -2 (essentially neutral) understates the asymmetry: bull case requires Leqembi to hit $2B+ *and* MS to stabilize *and* margins to recover — three things simultaneously — while bear case just requires the current trajectory to continue.
The contrarian bull argument I can construct: FCF CAGR of 27% and $2.05B TTM FCF against a $32.6B market cap is a 6.3% FCF yield, which isn't egregious for a business with a fortress balance sheet ($3.01B cash, $6.29B debt, 2.68 current ratio, $18.3B equity). If Leqembi genuinely scales to $3B+ by 2028 (a real possibility given Alzheimer's TAM and lack of competition post-donanemab safety concerns), earnings could double from here and the 25x multiple compresses to ~12x forward. Insider activity is essentially nil (two 593-share sales are noise, likely automated), which at least isn't a red flag. But the counter is that Q4'25's loss suggests one-time charges or restructuring are still being absorbed, and the -20.8% recent earnings YoY plus decelerating quarterly revenue trend contradict any clean recovery narrative. The data is also stale-flagged with "2026-03-31" quarters, which either means we're actually mid-2026 or the labels are wrong — either way, the Q4'25 loss is the most important recent datapoint and it argues against paying 25x.
I agree with the synthesis direction (overvalued) but think it's too kind. Fair value is closer to $150-170 than $178, and there's no obvious catalyst to close the gap in Biogen's favor — the next Leqembi datapoint is as likely to disappoint as delight given the drug's rollout history. The stock has drifted higher on hope rather than numbers, and the numbers show a business earning 6% ROIC on a shrinking-to-flat revenue base with compressing operating margins. I'd want to see either (a) two consecutive quarters of $2.6B+ revenue with 20%+ operating margins, or (b) the stock in the $150s before committing capital. At $220, this is a hold-your-nose short candidate for a patient book or a pass for a long-only.
GPT Reading
Biogen looks like a business with decent cash generation but a valuation that already assumes the hard part of the turnaround works. The raw numbers say “stabilization,” not “renaissance.” Annual revenue has gone from $10.98B in 2021 to $9.89B in 2025, with the last three years essentially stuck around $9.7B-$9.9B. That is better than a collapse, but it is still a smaller company than it was four years ago. More troubling is profitability: operating income fell from $3.59B in 2022 to $1.56B in 2025, and net income from $3.05B to $1.29B. Even within the quarterly cadence, margins are choppy rather than steadily improving: net margin was 24.0% in 2025-06, 18.4% in 2025-09, then negative in 2025-12 before recovering to 12.9% in 2026-03. That is not the profile I want to pay 25.1x earnings and 15.2x EBITDA for in a mature large-cap biotech.
The best thing in the file is free cash flow. Biogen produced $2.05B of FCF in 2025 on just $153.8M of capex, and operating cash flow of $2.20B means earnings quality is acceptable. The balance sheet is also fine: $3.01B of cash against $6.29B of debt, debt/equity of 0.34, and a 2.68 current ratio. This is not a distress story. But “not distressed” is very different from “cheap.” At a $32.6B market cap, the stock trades around 15.9x FCF. For a company with flat revenue, declining operating income, 7.1% ROE, and 6.0% ROIC, that multiple is not a giveaway. The market is paying for future product mix improvement and pipeline execution before those gains are clearly visible in the financial statements.
What stands out most is the mismatch between the valuation and the degree of demonstrated operating recovery. If the story were already showing up cleanly, I would expect annual revenue growth above low single digits and a clearer margin rebound. Instead, 2025 revenue rose only about 2.2% over 2024 ($9.89B vs $9.68B), while operating income actually fell 18% ($1.56B vs $1.91B). Quarterly revenue even peaked at $2.65B in 2025-06 and then slipped to $2.28B in 2025-12 before rebounding to $2.48B. That says portfolio offsets are real but fragile. The market narrative is effectively assigning meaningful value to Alzheimer’s upside and a broader neurology reset, yet the present numbers still describe a franchise fighting erosion elsewhere. On this base, a fairer setup would be a high-teens earnings multiple or low-teens FCF multiple, not 25x trailing EPS.
The strongest case against my view is that Biogen may be in the awkward accounting phase before a better earnings inflection. Gross margin remains very strong at 75.7%, so this is still a high-value portfolio if revenue growth can reappear. Revenue has at least stopped shrinking, and quarterly sales in 2026-03 were up versus 2025-03 ($2.48B vs $2.43B). If newer products scale, the current earnings base could understate normalized profit, making today’s 25x P/E less relevant than a forward number. You can also argue the balance sheet gives management flexibility for acquisitions or business development, and a 1.78x book value is not extreme for a biotech with intangible franchise value. If you believe the Alzheimer’s platform can add $1B+ of high-quality revenue over the next couple of years while legacy erosion moderates, then today’s price could prove reasonable.
What would change my mind is straightforward: I need to see growth and margin expansion show up together, not just one or the other. If Biogen can post two to three consecutive quarters with revenue above $2.6B, annualized sales clearly moving beyond $10.3B, and net margins back into the high teens without one-off volatility, then the current multiple would make more sense. Likewise, if operating income can recover toward $2.0B+ and FCF holds above $2.2B-$2.4B, I would be more constructive. On the other hand, if revenue slips back toward the $9.5B-$9.7B range or quarterly profitability remains stuck near low-double-digit net margins, then this should de-rate materially because the stock is not priced for another stalled turnaround.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a franchise in managed decline that has not yet earned a growth multiple. Annual revenue has slid from $10.98B in 2021 to $9.89B in 2025, a five-year contraction interrupted only by a thin 2.2% bounce last year; operating income fell from $1.91B in 2024 to $1.56B in 2025, and net income compressed to $1.29B. Quarterly run-rate remains stuck in a $2.3–2.65B band, with the December 2025 quarter printing a loss and the March 2026 quarter recovering only to a 12.9% net margin. Against that backdrop the stock at $220.77 embeds a 25.1x trailing P/E, 3.3x sales and 15.2x EV/EBITDA—premiums normally reserved for expanding platforms, not for a business whose ROE is 7.1%, ROIC 6% and whose free-cash-flow yield on a $32.6B equity value is roughly 6.3%. The $2.05B FCF and fortress balance sheet ($3.0B cash, 0.34 debt-to-equity, 2.7 current ratio) keep the company solvent and buyback-capable, but they do not justify paying growth-company multiples for flat top-line and shrinking operating leverage. The composite fair-value work pointing to roughly $166–178 is directionally correct; the market is simply refusing to clear at those levels.
What the models under-weight is the quality and durability of that cash flow plus the still-early commercial option on the Alzheimer’s franchise. Gross margin holds at 76%, capex is negligible at $154M, and FCF conversion is excellent—evidence that the mature MS base still throws off cash even as volume erodes. If Leqembi scales toward the $1–2B contribution bulls sketch by 2027 and MS erosion flattens rather than accelerates, the earnings power could stabilize near $1.5B+ and the 25x multiple would look less absurd on a forward basis. The narrative layer correctly flags that roughly 20–25% of the current price is redemption premium rather than capitalized steady-state cash flows; a smart opponent would argue that premium is cheap insurance on a multi-billion neurology asset the DCF treats too conservatively, and that 1.8x book for a company still generating >$2B FCF is not egregious in absolute terms.
I weigh the opponent’s case as real but incomplete. The same quarterly series that shows “stabilization” also shows decelerating revenue confidence and a –20.8% earnings y/y print; ROIC at 6% is below any reasonable cost of capital, so incremental capital is not yet earning its keep. Insider activity is neutral-to-selling, sector signals sit below benchmark, and the fallen-angel narrative is explicitly labeled fragile—any Leqembi uptake miss or label setback can compress the multiple quickly. Paying 25x for a business whose five-year revenue CAGR is 0.3% and whose operating margin is still compressing is a bet on execution recovery that the reported numbers have not yet confirmed.
The verdict flips if consecutive quarters show revenue sustained above $2.7B with operating margin back above 20%, or if Leqembi run-rate disclosures imply a clear path through $1.5B of annual sales without offsetting MS freefall. Conversely, another loss-making quarter or explicit guidance that peak Leqembi sits below $1B would confirm the overvaluation and likely drive the stock toward the mid-$170s fair-value band.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Biogen looks like a textbook mature_earner in gentle decline. Revenue has slid from $10.98B in 2021 to $9.89B in 2025 (roughly -2.6% CAGR), gross margin has compressed from 80.8% to 75.7%, and operating margin has been volatile in a lower band (35.3% in 2022, then 13.2%, 19.7%, 15.7%). Net income of $1.29B in 2025 is well below the $3.05B print in 2022. This is not distress, but it is a franchise fading at the top line while cost structure absorbs the hit unevenly. Earnings integrity and cash conversion are clear positives: OCF/NI of 1.52x, accruals -2.2% of assets, Beneish M -2.68, Altman Z 3.47 (safe), and FCF of $2.05B on $1.29B of net income. Capital discipline is also credible - diluted share count is essentially flat (147.1M vs 149.6M four years ago, -0.4% CAGR) with buybacks running ~190% of SBC and SBC only 2.9% of revenue. The balance sheet is the softest spot: $3.01B liquid cash but net debt of $3.28B, so leverage is a constraint rather than a cushion, though $2B+ annual FCF easily services it. Insider activity is immaterial (two small sales by one officer). No forensic red flags, but the durability question - what replaces the declining legacy franchises - is not answered by these mechanical checks.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Revenue mix and decline pace of MS franchise (Tecfidera, Tysabri, Vumerity) vs Leqembi/Skyclarys growth
- Impairment and restructuring charges driving OpM volatility (2023 13.2% vs 2022 35.3%)
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants against the $3.28B net debt
- Pipeline depth and R&D productivity given mature-decline classification
- Any customer/payer concentration or biosimilar/patent cliff exposure in filings
- Nature of the two Minor Lloyd sales (10b5-1 vs discretionary)
The composite fair value sits at $165.31 and the signal-adjusted figure at $177.61, both meaningfully below the $219.71 quote - roughly a 20% overshoot to the downside on deserved value. The method spread is telling: DCF prints $237.64 (a growth-scenario number that requires Lecanemab to actually inflect and pipeline to deliver), while EPV floor ($93.77) and anchored PE ($92.19) both scream that on today's shrinking earnings power the business is worth less than half the current price. Earnings quality is clean, so no haircut - but the valuation gap isn't about accounting, it's about paying today for tomorrow's pipeline. The market is already crediting Biogen for a Lecanemab ramp and a neurology comeback. Bulls need that story to actually show up in revenue and margin; bears note revenue, gross margin, and net income are all below four-year levels. A Solid-quality mature pharma in visible decline deserves a mid-cycle multiple, not a growth-rerating multiple. The 4-year lows on the P&L plus a mid-teens forward multiple on depressed earnings is where I'd get interested - not here.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Lecanemab quarterly script and revenue trajectory - is the ramp accelerating or stalling
- Gross margin direction as biosimilar pressure on MS franchise plays out
- 2026+ pipeline readouts and any label-expansion catalysts
- Operating expense discipline - is management flexing costs down as revenue base resets
- Any one-time items distorting recent operating margin swings
Biogen sits in the awkward middle of sentiment: the archetype is 'fallen-angel' with only moderate intensity and fragile durability, meaning the tape has neither embraced a recovery story nor fully written the name off. This week's Leqembi IQLIK autoinjector launch is a genuine, tangible narrative-supporting event - the first at-home anti-amyloid dosing - and it directly feeds the bull thesis of accelerating Lecanemab penetration. That is a real, if modest, tailwind on a name whose story badly needs proof points. Against that, syndicated 'reasons to sell BIIB' pieces are circulating the same day, which is exactly the kind of drumbeat that pins a fragile narrative from re-rating. Macro pressure on this specific name is muted: beta 0.16 means the risk-on tape and the higher-rate / stretched-multiple backdrop barely register here versus high-beta peers. Analyst tone reads as skeptical-to-mixed rather than momentum-chasing, and there is no cult bid to amplify good news. Net: a modest positive news catalyst offset by persistent 'serial disappointer' framing and no macro thrust in either direction - balanced, with a very slight tailwind lean.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Early Leqembi IQLIK uptake data and prescriber commentary in the next 1-2 months
- Any sell-side target revisions following the autoinjector launch
- Whether Alzheimer's / neurology becomes a rotation theme or stays a show-me story
- Pipeline readouts beyond Lecanemab that could either harden or crack the fallen-angel thesis
The world is funding neurology demand — an aging population, better Alzheimer's diagnostics and blood-based screening genuinely expand the addressable pool Biogen sits on. But the same world is compressing the economics: IRA negotiation, payer gatekeeping on infusion-and-monitoring therapies, biosimilar commoditization of the older biologics, and a 4.7% 10-year that raises the bar on long-dated pipeline value. Net: demand tailwind, price and mix headwind, and a company whose revenue base is still weighted toward the assets the world has already replaced.
When we made this prediction on Aug 26, 2026, BIIB was $221.73. We expect it to be $195.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $175.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 26, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips up 25%
adjusted_pe
flips up 25%