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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 7, 2026
16 days ago · 100% complete
UNVERIFIED BASIS Generated before the data-freshness fixes of Aug 14, 2026 — treat as indicative.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Bank of Montreal (BMO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -35 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 8 · Value -70 · Sentiment -3 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $137.96 vs $180.82 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Bank of Montreal

BMO NYSE
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified
Montreal, QC H2Y 1L6, Canada bmo.com Updated Aug 6, 4:30pm
Price
$180.83
Market Cap
$126.7B
Employees
53,234
Beta
1.15
Avg Volume
808,904
Last Dividend
$4.77
CEO
Mr. William Darryl White

Bank of Montreal is a diversified financial-services provider based in North America. It operates through four main business segments: Canadian personal and commercial banking, US personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets. The bank delivers a broad range of banking and financial services to individuals, businesses, and institutions, including deposit accounts, lending solutions, payment services, investment products, advisory services, and corporate finance. Bank of Montreal maintains a significant presence in Canada with substantial operations in the United States, supporting personal banking needs like mortgages and credit cards, commercial financing for small and medium enterprises, wealth management through investment counseling and asset management, and capital markets activities such as trading, underwriting, and advisory for institutional clients. Founded in 1817 and headquartered in Toronto, Ontario, Bank of Montreal plays a key role in the North American financial landscape by offering integrated services across retail, commercial, and investment banking sectors.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 7, 2026 12:18am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$180.82
as of Aug 7, 12:27am (16d ago)
Change · Aug 7
-0.12 (-0.07%)
Day Range
$180.27 – $182.59
52-Week Range
$112.12 – $184.21
50-Day MA
$173.68
200-Day MA
$146.57
Volume
325,084.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 16d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 700,416,619.00
Float 699,604,136.00
Free Float 99.9%
High free float — 99.9% of shares trade freely, ~0.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:33am (16d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:37am (18d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for Bank of Montreal

This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 7, 2026 12:16am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
22.25
Stock Price: $180.83
EPS (Diluted): 8.13
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.20
Stock Price: $180.83
Total Equity: $62.60B
Shares: 761,276,224
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $126.66B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $47.95B
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$82.6B
Market Cap: $126.66B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $47.95B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $25.78B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $25.78B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
24.0%
Net Income: $6.19B
Revenue: $25.78B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
9.9%
Net Income: $6.19B
Total Equity: $62.60B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: 24.5%
Equity: $62.60B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $47.95B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $62.60B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$33.86
Revenue: $25.78B
Shares: 761,276,224
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$82.23
Total Equity: $62.60B
Shares: 761,276,224
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.94
Operating CF: $7.28B
CapEx: -$1.23B
Shares: 761,276,224
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.6%
Last Dividend: $4.77
Stock Price: $180.83
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
57.8%
Dividends Paid: -$3.57B
Net Income: $6.19B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 7, 2026 12:16am
Compares BMO against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:37am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $19.3B $24.0B $22.2B $23.3B $25.8B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $7.2B $6.1B $8.7B $6.0B $9.1B
Operating Income
Net Income $5.5B $9.6B $3.1B $5.2B $6.2B
EBITDA
EPS $8.24 $14.24 $4.10 $6.76 $8.14
EPS (Diluted) $8.23 $14.20 $4.09 $6.76 $8.13
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:37am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $66.3B $62.2B $55.4B $46.3B $48.0B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $702.2B $809.5B $919.0B $1.0T $1.0T
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $661.3B $759.0B $864.2B $941.8B $986.8B
Total Equity $40.9B $50.5B $54.7B $59.9B $62.6B
Retained Earnings $25.2B $32.1B $31.9B $33.0B $33.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:37am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $31.3B $3.5B $6.8B $20.6B $7.3B
Capital Expenditure -$1.2B -$1.1B -$1.2B
Free Cash Flow $5.6B $19.5B $6.0B
Acquisitions (net) -$10.7B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid -$2.1B -$1.8B -$1.9B -$2.7B -$3.6B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $25.5B -$4.1B -$6.8B -$9.1B $1.7B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:37am (18d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +24.0% -7.4% +5.1% +10.6%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth
Net Income Growth +74.6% -67.8% +67.7% +19.0%
EBITDA Growth
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:38am (18d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-30 $1.22
2026-04-29 $1.22
2025-07-30 $1.18
2025-04-29 $1.15
2025-01-30 $1.11
2024-10-30 $1.12
2024-07-30 $1.12
2024-04-26 $1.10
2024-01-29 $11.20
2023-10-27 $10.72
2023-07-27 $11.14
2023-04-27 $10.57
2023-01-27 $10.70
2022-10-31 $10.24
2022-07-29 $10.85
2022-04-29 $10.42
2022-01-31 $10.55
2021-10-29 $8.56
2021-07-30 $8.52
2021-04-30 $8.54
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 16 computed · 6 not applicable · 2 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BMO — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-07 00:32:23
Verdict at $181, BMO is priced for a smooth cycle turn and successful US integration, both of which are consensus assumptions rather than upside surprises. Peer-relative P/B and ROE math points to fair value in the $145-160 range. The 2.6% yield doesn't compensate for waiting through a potential Canadian credit normalization. Not a short — Canadian banks are notoriously resilient — but no reason to be long here versus RY or NA which offer better ROE at lower multiples. If you already own it for the dividend, hold; if you're initiating, wait for a $150-handle or a clean PCL quarter that de-risks the credit thesis.

Starting with the raw numbers: BMO printed FY2025 revenue of $25.78B (+10.6% YoY) and net income of $6.19B (+19% YoY), continuing a recovery from the 2023 trough of $3.10B NI that was distorted by Bank of the West acquisition costs and PCL builds. The 5-yr revenue CAGR of 7.8% is respectable for a Big Five Canadian bank, and net margin of 24% with ROE of 9.9% is decent but not exceptional — RY and NA both run ROEs in the mid-teens. P/B of 2.2x is the crux: you're paying a premium price for a below-premium return on equity. That's the single most important tension in this file and none of the prior models framed it that way.

Where I disagree with the synthesis: the DCF fair value of $138 (signal-adjusted $148) implying 18% overvaluation looks mechanically driven by the depressed 2023 base and modest FCF CAGR of 3.7%. Banks are not DCF-friendly — operating cash flow swings wildly with working capital on the loan book, and $7.28B OCF on $25.78B revenue understates true earnings power. A cleaner lens is P/E-to-ROE: at 22x earnings and ~10% ROE, BMO trades richer than RY (~13x, ~15% ROE) and TD (~11x, ~14% ROE post-AML issues). On peer-relative terms the stock looks expensive, not because DCF says so but because you're paying more per unit of shareholder return than competitors offer. The thesis evaluation's -6 score and "market prices tepid growth from a bank delivering 12%" framing gets the earnings acceleration right but ignores that the 41% earnings CAGR is a rebound artifact, not a run-rate.

The contrarian bear case the models undersell: Canadian bank NIMs have benefited from the 2022-2024 rate cycle, and the BoC is now cutting. BMO's US book (Bank of the West legacy) is concentrated in California commercial real estate — a segment with unresolved office/multifamily stress. PCLs of ~$800M+/quarter have been elevated but arguably not yet at cycle peak if Canadian housing softens meaningfully (variable-rate mortgage resets in 2025-2026 are a known overhang). The narrative layer's "US expansion finally paying off" story is exactly the kind of just-so explanation that shows up near local highs. Meanwhile the bull case — that market underprices 12% growth — conflates cyclical rebound earnings with structural growth. I'd bet against the bull.

Data quality flags: no debt figure (banks don't report debt-to-equity meaningfully anyway, so the 0 reading is a data artifact, not a signal — ignore the "fortress balance sheet" implication from that field), no quarterly breakdown to assess trajectory, ROA of 0.59% is normal for a bank but reminds us that leverage does the heavy lifting on that 9.9% ROE. The 2.64% dividend yield with 58% payout ratio is sustainable but not compelling — you can get 4%+ from utilities with less credit-cycle risk. Where I partially agree with synthesis: fair value in the $140-155 range is defensible; where I dissent is on the "wait for re-rating catalyst" implication — I think the more likely catalyst is downward, via a credit cycle turn or NIM compression, not upward via US synergy realization. My read is overvalued, not fair-valued.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-07 00:32:36
Verdict Overvalued at $180.83 — fair value is closer to $145-$155 unless ROE can climb above 12% and earnings move toward $7.5B+.

At $180.83, BMO looks expensive for the returns it is actually producing. The cleanest way to see it is price-to-book versus ROE: the bank trades at 2.20x book on a 9.9% ROE. For a bank, that is a rich multiple unless you believe returns are heading materially higher and sustainably. Yet the last five years do not show a smooth compounding machine; they show volatile earnings. Net income went from $5.51B in 2021 to $9.62B in 2022, then collapsed to $3.10B in 2023, recovered to $5.20B in 2024, and reached $6.19B in 2025. Revenue has grown more steadily, from $19.32B to $25.78B over that span, but the margin structure has not. A 24.0% net margin in 2025 is fine, not premium enough to justify paying more than 22x earnings and over 5.3x sales for a diversified bank.

The market seems to be rewarding the story of a larger, more diversified franchise before the economics have fully shown up. On the current numbers, shareholders are paying $126.66B in market cap for $62.60B of equity and $6.19B of annual earnings. That is a roughly 4.9% earnings yield and a 9.9% return on book equity, which is not a compelling spread for a bank with integration and credit-cycle exposure. Free cash flow of $6.05B against the current market cap is also only about a 4.8% FCF yield. Even if one argues bank FCF is not the primary valuation lens, it still does not rescue the stock. The dividend yield at 2.64% is modest, and with a 57.8% payout ratio, there is room to grow it, but not enough to make the current entry price self-evidently attractive.

What stands out most is the mismatch between growth optics and underlying quality of that growth. Revenue CAGR of 7.8% is respectable, and the recent 10.6% revenue growth plus 19% earnings growth will tempt people into extrapolation. But the five-year earnings CAGR figure is heavily distorted by the depressed 2021 base and the dramatic 2023 drop; it overstates the reality of this earnings stream. A bank whose net income can swing from $9.62B to $3.10B and then back only partway to $6.19B should not get the same multiple as a stable high-ROE compounder. If BMO were producing 13-15% ROE consistently, 2.2x book might be arguable. At sub-10% ROE, the burden of proof is on the bull case, and the current price assumes that proof is already in hand.

The best case against my view is straightforward: 2025 may be the first year where the larger franchise starts to normalize after a messy period, and the market may be looking through temporarily depressed profitability. Revenue hit a record $25.78B, up from $23.30B in 2024 and above the pre-volatility 2022 level of $23.95B. Net income rose 19% year over year to $6.19B. If that recovery continues, today's 22x trailing P/E could compress quickly on forward numbers, and 2.2x book may be less crazy if ROE marches back into the low teens. The large cash balance of $47.95B and continued positive operating cash flow of $7.28B also support the idea that this is not a balance-sheet-stressed story. In other words, the stock may be expensive on backward-looking metrics precisely because the income statement is still catching up to the enlarged platform.

I still weigh that less heavily because the stock price leaves too little room for execution risk. To justify $180+, I would want evidence that the recent revenue growth converts into a materially better return profile, not just higher scale. Specifically, I would need to see net income push decisively above the 2022 peak-adjusted range on a sustained basis, or at minimum a clear move in ROE from 9.9% toward 12%+ without a deterioration in capital strength or payout discipline. If the next annual cycle shows earnings closer to $7.5B-$8.0B with ROE above 12% and book value continuing to grow, I would revisit the premium multiple. Short of that, this looks like a good bank priced like a better bank.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-07 00:33:18
Verdict Overvalued at $181; fair value nearer $145–155 until ROE clears 12%

The raw numbers tell a recovery story that has already been paid for. BMO’s net income climbed from the $3.10B trough in fiscal 2023 to $5.20B and then $6.19B in 2025, with revenue hitting a record $25.78B (+10.6% year-on-year). That bounce is real and reflects digestion of Bank of the West, yet the absolute return profile remains soft: ROE sits at just 9.89% and ROA at 0.59%. For a diversified bank, a sub-10% ROE at 2.20× book and 22.2× earnings is the central contradiction. Equity of $62.60B is generating only about $6.2B of profit; the market is capitalizing that stream at $127B as if mid-teens returns are imminent. Free-cash-flow of $6.05B against $6.19B of net income is high quality, and the 57.8% payout supporting a 2.64% yield is sustainable, but neither metric justifies a 22× multiple when the earnings power on capital is still mediocre. Revenue CAGR of 7.8% and recent 19% earnings growth look healthy until you remember the 2023 base was depressed by acquisition charges; FCF CAGR of only 3.7% is the cleaner signal of underlying momentum.

The valuation synthesis that lands near $148 (18% below the $180.83 screen price) is directionally correct even if the precise DCF is noisy. A bank earning roughly 10% on equity historically clears closer to 1.3–1.6× book once integration risk is fully priced; 2.2× book embeds an assumption that ROE will expand 300–400 bp and stay there. Net margin of 24% is respectable, yet the reverse-DCF implied growth of ~3% that the market allegedly prices is less comforting than it first appears: Canadian bank multiples have compressed before when credit costs normalize, and the current multiple already assumes the benign part of the cycle persists. Debt-to-equity printing at zero is a reporting artifact for a deposit-funded institution and should not be read as fortress leverage; the real balance-sheet test will be provision rates if Canadian housing or U.S. commercial real estate softens.

The strongest counter-argument is that the market is simply late to the synergy story. Bulls can point to the clean 19% earnings jump, high revenue confidence, and the fact that BMO now carries the most meaningful U.S. footprint among the Big Five—precisely the diversification Canadian institutions have sought for a decade. If Bank of the West expense saves and cross-sell finally lift group ROE toward 13–14%, the 22× P/E becomes a growth multiple rather than a value trap, and the stock can compound from here while still looking cheaper than RY or TD on a growth-adjusted basis. The thesis score of only –6 and the “steady-compounder” narrative both leave room for that re-rating. I weigh this less heavily because the ROE gap is still wide two-plus years after close; hope is not yet visible in the 9.9% return on equity, and paying 2.2× book for hope has been a poor risk-reward in prior Canadian bank cycles.

I would flip to neutral or constructive if fiscal 2026 prints ROE at or above 12.5% with stable credit costs, or if the shares revisit the mid-$150s while the earnings trajectory remains intact. A clear step-up in U.S. segment margins or a sustained FCF CAGR above 8% would also force a rethink of the multiple ceiling.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-07 01:03:36
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
BMO is a Solid (+8) diversified bank trading ~22-31% above deserved value (-70) with a neutral sentiment tape - a wait, not a buy.
The cruxWhether the US integration earnings acceleration priced into the stock actually shows up in the numbers, starting with the Aug 25 print.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from BMO's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+8
Solid
edge √Σ 87 · risk √Σ 79 · conf 7/10

BMO is a scaled diversified bank with revenue climbing from 19.3B in 2021 to 25.8B in 2025 (about 7.5% CAGR) and net income of 6.19B in the latest year. Reported liquid cash of 47.95B and self-funding operations mean survival risk is not a real question - the Altman Z of 0.15 flag is a model artifact (Z-score is not calibrated for banks, whose balance sheets are structurally asset-heavy and leveraged by design). OCF/NI of 2.68x and mildly negative accruals point to clean earnings quality with no aggressive accrual build. Net income has been choppy - 5.51B, 9.62B, 3.10B, 5.20B, 6.19B - reflecting the Bank of the West acquisition digestion, PCL swings, and integration costs rather than a broken franchise. The concern that actually matters for quality is dilution: diluted share count moved from 669.6M to 761.3M, a 3.3% CAGR, meaning per-share value is being handed away to fund acquisitions and regulatory capital. For a mature earner this is a real drag on compounding. Nothing in the data suggests a distressed or low-integrity operator; it looks like a workmanlike, regulated, mid-tier-quality global bank.

Strengths 3
m55
Clean earnings-to-cash conversion
OCF/NI of 2.68x and accruals at -1% of assets indicate reported earnings are backed by cash, not accrual games.
m50
Revenue growth through the cycle
Revenue expanded from 19.3B (2021) to 25.8B (2025) despite rate volatility and BoTW integration - franchise is scaling.
m45
Scale and deposit base
47.95B in liquid cash and consistent multi-billion FCF signal a well-funded, diversified deposit-taking institution.
Concerns 3
m60
Persistent share issuance
Diluted shares grew 3.3% annually (669.6M to 761.3M), a real headwind to per-share earnings compounding for a mature bank.
m45
Earnings volatility
Net income swung from 9.62B (2022) to 3.10B (2023) back to 6.19B (2025), reflecting acquisition digestion and PCL cycle sensitivity.
m25
Altman Z 0.15 flag is a false positive
Z-score is not built for banks; the number reflects structural leverage inherent to banking, not distress. Noted but discounted.
This looks like a competent, diversified North American bank in the middle of digesting a large US acquisition - not distressed, not elite. The forensic flags mostly dissolve on inspection: the Altman Z is meaningless for a bank, and earnings volatility ties to identifiable events. What I cannot wave away is the 3.3% annual dilution - for a mature earner, that is a structural tax on per-share quality. Earnings integrity looks fine, liquidity is a non-issue, and the franchise is scaling. I land at Solid: a durable business, run reasonably, but not one where per-share value is being aggressively protected.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the diluted share growth reflects BoTW acquisition consideration vs ongoing DRIP/at-market issuance
  • CET1 ratio and regulatory capital trajectory post-BoTW
  • PCL (provision for credit losses) trend and US commercial/CRE exposure
  • Segment mix: US P&C, Canadian P&C, Wealth, Capital Markets contributions
  • Whether recent quarters show integration costs normalizing
Valuation / Mispricing
-70
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10
Price $180.82 vs composite deserved ~$138 (signal-adj ~$148) - roughly 22-31% premium, negative margin of safety. attractive below $150.00

The e2e composite pegs fair value at $137.96 and the signal-adjusted FV at $148.03, both well below the $180.82 print. That is a -18% implied upside, or put differently, the market is paying a 22-31% premium to blended intrinsic estimates for a diversified Canadian bank that is still digesting its US acquisition. The anchored-PE cross-check lands in the same neighborhood ($137.96), so this is not a single runaway method - the methods agree the stock is above deserved value. Quality is Solid (8) which supports a deserved-value uplift versus a distressed peer, but 3.3% annual dilution is a real per-share tax that argues against paying above blended FV. Earnings quality is good, so no additional haircut, but nothing here justifies the ~24% gap either. The bull case requires US expansion earnings to accelerate meaningfully from here; the bear case notes that story is not yet in the numbers and NIM tailwinds are cyclical. Verdict: priced for the good outcome to actually show up. This is Rich, not egregiously overvalued - a bank rarely trades to catastrophic multiples - but there is no discount to buy.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality tilt supports some premium
Solid (8) quality with good earnings quality and dividend consistency justifies trading above the crudest FV read - but not this far above.
Rich / priced-in 4
m68
Price 24% above composite FV
$180.82 vs $137.96 composite fair value implies the market is paying a material premium; even the signal-adjusted $148.03 leaves ~22% of downside to fair.
m55
Methods agree - not a single-model artifact
Anchored-PE also lands at $137.96, so the discount case cannot be blamed on one aggressive DCF. Convergent methods below price is a stronger rich signal.
m45
Priced for US acceleration not yet in numbers
Bear case flags that the US expansion earnings story is embedded in the price before it shows up in results - classic 'paying for the story' setup.
m40
3.3% annual dilution eats per-share value
For a mature bank, persistent share issuance is a structural drag on per-share compounding; it argues for a discount to blended FV, not a premium.
I cannot make this cheap. Two independent methods land near $138 and even the friendlier signal-adjusted number is $148 - the stock is $181. That is a 22-31% gap in the wrong direction on a Solid but not elite bank that is still diluting shareholders 3.3% a year. I would want it in the $145-150 zone before the valuation stopped fighting me, and closer to $135 to actually get paid for the risk. Rich, hold-nose or wait.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • US segment PPNR run-rate and whether integration synergies are showing up in efficiency ratio
  • Guidance on credit normalization and PCL trajectory
  • Buyback vs issuance cadence - any pivot away from net dilution
  • NIM sensitivity disclosure and duration positioning as rates move
General Sentiment
-3
Balanced
tail √Σ 56 · head √Σ 59 · conf 6/10

BMO sits in a calm risk-on tape (VIX 15, S&P near highs) which is a mild positive for a beta-1.15 Canadian diversified bank, but the pressure is muted because this is a low-cult, moderate-intensity steady-compounder story - not the kind of name that leverages a euphoric backdrop. The narrative is intact but unexciting: US expansion 'finally paying off' is the bull frame, and analyst/media tone (the TSX:BMO 'looks reasonable' piece, 144% 5yr return recap) is constructive without being pushy. There is no active de-rating force and no mania - the story is doing its job quietly. The offsetting pressure is macro-mechanical: 10y at 4.63%, market PE 27.7, and FX/payrolls volatility looming Friday all sit as low-grade headwinds for a rate-sensitive lender, and the bear frame (duration risk, credit normalization being ignored) is the exact narrative crack that a soft NFP or a credit blip could pry open. The Aug 25 Q3 print is the near-term sentiment gate - until then the tape is a gentle tailwind, the narrative is neutral-to-slightly-positive, and news flow (ETN launches, ETF commentary) is benign filler. Net: forces roughly cancel, tilting a hair positive on regime.

Tailwinds 3
m38
Risk-on tape lifts bank beta modestly
VIX 15, S&P near highs, regime building for 4 days - a beta-1.15 diversified bank gets a real but ordinary lift from a calm risk-on backdrop, nothing decisive.
m32
Steady-compounder narrative intact
The US-expansion-paying-off frame is moderate intensity and moderate durability with constructive media tone ('looks reasonable', strong 5yr return recap) - a quiet, supportive story rather than an active driver.
m25
Positive momentum backdrop
Strong positive momentum score with low revenue-growth volatility keeps trend-followers and quality-factor flows on side, a mild persistent bid.
Headwinds 3
m42
Rate/macro pressure on lenders
10y at 4.63% and a stretched market PE of 27.7 sit as a persistent crosswind for rate-sensitive banks; FX/payrolls volatility Friday adds near-term chop that a diversified Canadian bank with US exposure feels directly.
m35
Credit-normalization bear frame is loaded
The bear narrative (duration risk, consumer credit normalization being ignored, 22% premium to DCF on unproven US acceleration) is the exact vulnerability a soft Q3 print on Aug 25 or a weak NFP could activate - dormant now but pre-loaded.
m22
No cult, no momentum story to ride
Low cult coefficient and no active thematic tailwind (AI, GLP-1, etc) means BMO cannot benefit from the risk-on tape the way story stocks can - the lift is capped.
Net pressure is close to neutral with a slight positive tilt from the risk-on tape and an intact steady-compounder story, offset by rate/credit crosscurrents and a loaded bear frame that the Aug 25 print could trigger. This is not a name being pushed hard either way right now - it is drifting on regime, waiting for the quarter. I would call it Balanced with a whisper of tailwind, and I would not size aggressively into the print because the sentiment setup is asymmetric: benign quarter equals a small grind higher, a miss on credit or US NIM equals a fast narrative crack given the 22% premium the story is carrying.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Aug 25 Q3 2026 print - any crack in US earnings acceleration or PCL uptick activates the bear frame
  • Friday US payrolls and any repricing of the front end - hot print pressures duration book, soft print raises credit concerns
  • Sector rotation signals: if regional US banks or Canadian peers start diverging, watch for BMO-specific analyst target revisions
  • Any shift in the 'US expansion paying off' narrative in sell-side notes going into the print
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -8.2% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 7, 2026, BMO was $180.82. We expect it to be $166.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $150.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 7, 2026.

Price when predicted$180.82
Our estimate for Feb 2027$166.00-8.2%
Great value below$150.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06