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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 15, 2026
8 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK.B) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +22 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 83 · Value -28 · Sentiment -1 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

BRK.B NYSE
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
Omaha, NE 68131, United States berkshirehathaway.com Updated Aug 14, 10:02pm
Price
$504.03
Market Cap
$1.1T
Employees
387,800
Beta
0.61
Avg Volume
4,054,281
CEO
Mr. Gregory Edward Abel

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B is the Class B common stock of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., an American multinational conglomerate holding company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. Today, Berkshire Hathaway operates a diversified portfolio of businesses spanning property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, finance, services, and retailing. Its insurance operations, including brands such as GEICO and specialized reinsurance units, form a core part of its financial services activity, providing underwriting and risk management across multiple markets. Beyond insurance, the company owns major assets in rail transport through Burlington Northern Santa Fe and in regulated power and gas through Berkshire Hathaway Energy, alongside numerous manufacturing and consumer-facing businesses. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B shares provide economic exposure to this broad, multi-sector group, giving investors access to a large, diversified corporate ecosystem that plays a significant role in insurance, infrastructure, and industrial activity in the United States and globally.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 15, 2026 12:23am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$504.03
as of Aug 15, 12:19am (8d ago)
Change · Aug 15
-2.90 (-0.57%)
Day Range
$503.77 – $509.16
52-Week Range
$464.01 – $537.74
50-Day MA
$499.03
200-Day MA
$491.60
Volume
3,954,833.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 8d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,431,693.00
Float 1,119,987,549.00
Free Float 78,228.2%
High free float — 78,228.2% of shares trade freely, ~-78128.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 12:28am (8d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 12:01am (8d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 15, 2026 12:21am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
16.24
Stock Price: $504.03
EPS (Diluted): 31.04
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.52
Stock Price: $504.03
Total Equity: $717.42B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $1,078.98B
Total Debt: $129.08B
Cash: $51.88B
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.2T
Market Cap: $1,078.98B
Total Debt: $129.08B
Cash: $51.88B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $410.52B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $410.52B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
16.3%
Net Income: $66.97B
Revenue: $410.52B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
9.3%
Net Income: $66.97B
Total Equity: $717.42B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: 18.4%
Equity: $717.42B
Total Debt: $129.08B
Cash: $51.88B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.18
Short-Term Debt: $3.32B
Long-Term Debt: $125.76B
Total Debt: $129.08B
Total Equity: $717.42B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$190.29
Revenue: $410.52B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$332.55
Total Equity: $717.42B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$21.31
Operating CF: $45.97B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 2,157,334,111
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $504.03
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $66.97B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 15, 2026 12:21am
Compares BRK.B against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 12:01am (8d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $354.7B $234.1B $439.3B $424.2B $410.5B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $57.1B $63.2B $117.1B $70.0B $73.9B
Operating Income
Net Income $89.9B -$22.8B $96.2B $89.0B $67.0B
EBITDA
EPS $39.70 $-10.33 $44.27 $41.27 $31.04
EPS (Diluted) $39.70 $-10.33 $44.27 $41.27 $31.04
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 12:01am (8d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $88.2B $35.8B $38.0B $47.7B $51.9B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $1.2T $1.2T
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt $111.9B $120.3B $122.9B $122.3B $125.8B
Total Liabilities $502.2B $502.5B
Total Equity $506.2B $473.4B $561.3B $649.4B $717.4B
Retained Earnings $534.4B $511.1B $607.4B $696.2B $763.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 12:01am (8d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $99.8B -$47.1B $107.1B $79.3B $46.0B
Capital Expenditure -$13.3B -$15.5B -$19.4B -$19.0B
Free Cash Flow $26.2B $21.9B $29.8B $11.6B $25.0B
Acquisitions (net) -$456.0M -$10.6B -$8.6B -$396.0M -$1.1B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$752.0M $8.2B -$1.1B -$1.8B $3.0B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$27.1B -$7.9B -$9.2B -$2.9B $0
Net Change in Cash $40.3B -$52.3B $2.2B $9.7B $4.2B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 12:01am (8d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -34.0% +87.7% -3.4% -3.2%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth
Net Income Growth -125.3% +522.8% -7.5% -24.8%
EBITDA Growth
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 15 computed · 6 not applicable · 3 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BRK.B — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-15
The creme is there an opportunity here? Conditional opportunity
Berkshire is an AI beneficiary by ownership of the complements — power, capital, physical networks — with one real erosion risk in GEICO that decides whether the position scores 61 or 42.
The underappreciated channel is BHE: AI compute load is a rate-base expansion story funded at a cost of capital nobody bidding for the same generation assets can match, and it shows up in capex guidance and signed data-center load before it shows up in earnings. The offsetting risk is that agentic price shopping plus commoditized segmentation dissolves GEICO's advertising moat, turning personal auto into a pure cost fight — watch policies-in-force alongside the combined ratio and ad spend per new policy. Responsibility transfer at 85 and scarcity migration at 72 are why the downside is bounded; the decentralized structure at data leverage 54 is why the upside is slower than a focused competitor's.
61
AI Position
Moderately favorable - AI arrives as electricity demand and claims cost, not as substitution
Cheap intelligence barely touches Berkshire's reason for existing — balance-sheet risk absorption and regulated physical assets — while AI-driven power load quietly enlarges BHE's rate base and AI-driven claims automation lowers GEICO's cost of delivery.
Exposure 45 Confidence 64 50 = neutral
Primary Tailwind

AI compute buildout converts into load growth and capex opportunity at Berkshire Hathaway Energy: interconnection queues, transmission, and dispatchable generation are exactly the scarce physical inputs that a compute boom bids up, and regulated utilities earn a return on the capital deployed to serve it.

Primary Pressure

Auto insurance is the one segment where cheap intelligence genuinely erodes an advantage: AI-grade pricing, telematics and claims models narrow the segmentation gap that scale used to buy, while AI shopping agents strip value from GEICO's brand-and-advertising moat by turning personal auto into a pure price-and-quote API contest.

Critical Hinge

Whether GEICO's expense-ratio and loss-cost advantage widens or narrows as competitors' models improve — observable in GEICO's combined ratio, policies-in-force trend, and ad spend per new policy versus Progressive's.

Hard to Reproduce

Permanent low-cost float, an AAA-grade balance sheet that can write catastrophe and mega-limit reinsurance no one else will, rail rights-of-way, regulated grid franchises, and the reputation that makes Berkshire the buyer of choice in forced-sale moments.

Forensic fingerprint same 11 factors for every stock · 0 unfavorable · 50 neutral · 100 favorable
Underlying Need Persistence do people still need this at all? 93
Risk transfer, electricity, freight and consumer goods are needs cheap intelligence intensifies rather than removes.
Nothing about abundant machine intelligence reduces the need for someone to hold capital against catastrophe loss, move freight, or supply power; if anything AI raises electricity demand and creates new insurable exposures.
P&C premium volume growth · BHE load growth and interconnection requests · BNSF carload trends
relevance 72 · confidence 88
Solution Persistence will they still solve it this way? 75
The delivery form persists; only auto insurance distribution is genuinely up for renegotiation.
Regulated utilities, rail and reinsurance capacity are delivered the same way regardless of model cost, but the direct-response advertising model that built GEICO could be displaced by agentic quote comparison.
GEICO direct vs aggregator mix · Comparison-agent quote integrations · Reinsurance capacity pricing cycle
relevance 62 · confidence 70
Intelligence Commoditization does cheap AI power them or copy them? 51
Cheap AI powers Berkshire's cost base but also copies its analytic edge in personal auto.
Underwriting and claims triage skill — historically a scale-and-data advantage for GEICO — becomes purchasable, while capital adequacy and regulatory licensing, which cannot be purchased cheaply, remain Berkshire's real advantage.
GEICO expense ratio trajectory · Small-carrier loss-ratio convergence · Telematics adoption disclosures
relevance 74 · confidence 62
Responsibility Transfer are they paid to take the blame? 85
Berkshire is paid explicitly to own consequences no model can absorb.
An insurance policy and a reinsurance treaty are contractual transfers of financial blame backed by a balance sheet; automation lowers the cost of administering the promise but cannot make the promise itself cheaper to keep.
Mega-cat and mega-limit deals written · Statutory surplus and float growth · Ratings agency commentary
relevance 80 · confidence 82
Scarcity Migration do their assets get rarer or more common? 72
AI makes power, grid access and permanent capital scarcer — Berkshire owns all three.
Compute growth bids up dispatchable generation, transmission and interconnection rights, and volatility raises the value of a balance sheet able to underwrite risk others cannot; both are assets AI cannot manufacture.
BHE rate-base and capex plans · Data-center load contracts signed · Cash and Treasury balance deployment
relevance 78 · confidence 66
Customer DIY Preference will customers just build it themselves? 86
Nobody self-insures tail risk or self-builds a grid because software got cheap.
The tasks AI can automate here are administrative, not the capital-bearing core; large corporates may retain more small-loss risk but still need reinsurance capacity for the tail.
Captive insurance formation rates · Large-account retention levels · Commercial lines renewal pricing
relevance 50 · confidence 80
AI Intermediation Position do AI agents go through them or around them? 46
Agentic shopping threatens GEICO's advertising-built funnel while leaving utilities and rail untouched.
If AI agents buy personal auto on price and coverage parity, decades of brand spend depreciate and the winner is whoever has the lowest true loss-plus-expense cost — a fight GEICO can win but only on economics, not familiarity.
GEICO advertising spend per policy · Quote-aggregator share of new business · Retention rate on renewals
relevance 63 · confidence 58
Data Leverage does their data make AI better? 54
Enormous claims and driving data exists, but decentralization limits its conversion into model advantage.
GEICO's historical lag in telematics and technology, and Berkshire's deliberate refusal to centralize functions, mean the data asset is real but under-exploited relative to focused rivals.
GEICO tech modernization progress · Telematics-priced policy share · Central data or AI hires disclosed
relevance 58 · confidence 55
AI Margin Conversion do the AI savings become profit? 60
Claims and admin automation savings are real but partly competed away through regulated rate filings.
In personal auto, lower loss-adjustment and acquisition cost gets recycled into price to hold policies-in-force; in utilities, efficiency flows to ratepayers, so the durable margin gain sits mainly in manufacturing, services and reinsurance.
Loss adjustment expense ratio · Manufacturing segment operating margin · Headcount per unit of revenue
relevance 66 · confidence 58
Revenue Unit Durability does the thing they charge for survive? 74
Premiums, kilowatt-hours and ton-miles are physically anchored units, not seats or hours.
None of Berkshire's monetized units is priced per human user or per hour of cognitive labor, so the deflationary risk that hits software and services largely bypasses the revenue line.
Premiums earned by segment · Utility rate case outcomes · Rail pricing versus volume mix
relevance 62 · confidence 72
Entrant Compression how easily can newcomers copy them? 62
Cheap software builds an insurtech front end, not the capital, ratings or franchises behind it.
The insurtech cohort proved technology alone does not solve adverse selection or capital cost, and utilities, rail and energy franchises are legally rather than technically protected.
AI-native carrier loss ratios · New entrant surplus and reinsurance access · State rate approval speed for entrants
relevance 68 · confidence 66

AI Lens thesis

AI reaches Berkshire through four separate channels that must not be blended: (1) insurance underwriting, where cheap intelligence commoditizes analytic skill but cannot commoditize the capital and regulatory license that actually absorbs loss — mildly negative for GEICO's relative edge, neutral-to-positive for Ajit Jain's capacity-scarcity reinsurance; (2) energy, where AI compute demand is a direct, sizable rate-base tailwind and dispatchable capacity becomes scarcer; (3) the operating subsidiaries — BNSF, manufacturing, retail, services — where AI is an ordinary cost-efficiency story that a decentralized, capital-disciplined structure will harvest slowly but keep, since most units are not in seat-priced software competition; (4) capital allocation, which is untouched: the scarce thing is willingness and capacity to write a $10bn check on 48 hours' notice, and abundant intelligence does not create that. Net: low substitution risk, real but modest cost benefit, one genuine competitive erosion in personal auto.

Thesis breaker A multi-year slide in GEICO policies-in-force alongside a rising combined ratio while Progressive's improves would show AI-era segmentation is structurally beating scale; conversely, BHE capex guidance stepping up on signed data-center load contracts would confirm the energy channel is bigger than modelled.
What the market may be underestimating

Upside Berkshire owns the bottleneck complements to AI rather than AI itself — power generation, transmission, industrial products, and the capital to fund utility-scale build — and it can finance that expansion at a cost of capital AI-native competitors for the same assets cannot match.

Downside Decentralization is an AI adoption tax: dozens of independently run subsidiaries with no central data or model function will deploy later and more shallowly than focused competitors, so the cost savings accrue to rivals first in the more contestable units like retail, services and auto insurance distribution.

Outcome range spread 34

42Bear case
61Central case
76Bull case
Three headline numbers, deliberately never blended: Position (which way), Exposure (how much it matters at all), Confidence (how sure). The fingerprint asks every stock the same 11 questions so companies a sector label would lump together get told apart. Not an input to GEM/Coal or the Q/V/S lenses.
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:39

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Holding Berkshire's headline declines are mostly GAAP investment-mark and one-off noise; the underlying engine — growing float, ~$380B+ of short-duration cash earning 4%+, GEICO margin recovery and utility rate-base capex — points to flat-to-modestly-up earnings power rather than genuine contraction. conf 7/10
Inline with category Category growing · Insurance - Diversified is in a steady, growing phase (category median recent growth ~3.1%; industry 8.4% revenue CAGR and margins +5.7pp over three years). Berkshire's measured -3.2% revenue and -24.8% earnings appear to lag badly, but the bulk of that gap is GAAP investment-gain mark swings and a prior-year one-off comp, not premium share ceded. Underwriting premium and float are still expanding; conglomerate revenue is diluted by cycle-exposed rail/housing units that are not in the insurance category at all.
Next 2 quarters
Holding
Investment income remains high, GEICO underwriting margin is intact, and utility earnings step up; offset by tough prior-year comps and cycle-soft rail/housing units. Reported figures will again be dominated by equity marks, so operating earnings should be roughly flat to slightly up.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Holding
Full-year operating earnings should be broadly flat: interest income plateaus as the front end stops rising, insurance underwriting normalizes rather than expands further, utility rate base adds a few points, and rail/housing stay soft. No mechanism for a step-change absent a large acquisition.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structural earnings power grows only at low-single digits: float compounds and utilities add rate base, but scale drag, an eventual lower short-rate regime shrinking the cash engine, and a mature operating stack cap it. A big acquisition is the only realistic path to Growing; it is optionality, not a forecast.
— expectations unclear
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
63 Float + cash earning high short rates — An enormous short-duration cash/T-bill book compounds directly into pretax investment income while the 10y sits at 4.63 and the curve is only mildly positive (0.48). This is the single largest incremental earnings source of the last two years and requires no operating execution — it is arithmetic on the balance sheet.
48 Insurance underwriting margin normalization — GEICO's rate actions and expense discipline restored underwriting margin, and the reinsurance/specialty units are writing at firm P&C pricing in a 'steady' category. Policy-count regrowth after the 2022-23 shrink adds premium volume on an already-repaired loss ratio.
29 Regulated utility rate-base growth — BHE's capex-driven rate base grows earnings semi-mechanically, with wildfire-liability overhang the main offset. Low-beta, contractual growth that does not depend on the economic cycle.
26 Capital deployment optionality under new CEO — Idle cash at this scale means any large acquisition or repurchase window converts a zero-growth asset into an earnings-accretive one; the earnings-power floor only moves up from here. Optionality, not a dated catalyst.
24 Consistent estimate outperformance — Four beats in the last five prints (+18%, +24%, +4%, +9%) versus one miss suggests the sell-side model systematically under-captures investment income and underwriting normalization, even allowing for unmodellable equity marks.
Growth risks
53 Short-rate sensitivity of the cash engine — The biggest recent growth driver reverses if the front end falls: a 100bp cut cycle removes several billion of pretax interest income with nothing operationally to replace it. This is the clearest path from Holding to Stalling.
48 Law of large numbers / scale drag — At ~$1.07T market cap and a revenue base of this size, the multi-year record is negative (revenue CAGR -3.3%, earnings CAGR -16.6%) and no single acquisition can move the aggregate much. Structural growth converges toward nominal GDP at best.
34 Cyclical exposure in the non-insurance stack — BNSF volumes, Clayton Homes, Shaw and building products are levered to freight and housing; 'Macro Headwinds' with a 4.63 10y keeps this cluster suppressed and caps consolidated operating growth.
29 Catastrophe and GAAP volatility — A single heavy cat season or an equity-portfolio drawdown swings reported earnings violently — recent earnings YoY of -24.8% is largely this effect and it cuts both ways, making any single print unreliable evidence.
21 Reported share gap vs industry — Recent YoY -3.2% against ~5.2% industry growth is an -8.4pp gap. Most of it is accounting optics, but GEICO's earlier policy-count retreat versus faster-growing direct competitors shows the risk is not purely cosmetic.
The macro setup is a two-sided coin for Berkshire uniquely: a 4.63% 10y and elevated front-end rates pay the cash mountain and float handsomely, while simultaneously suppressing housing-linked manufacturing, retail furnishings and freight volumes, and raising utility financing cost. Firm P&C pricing in a steady insurance cycle supports underwriting. Net effect is a business that self-hedges the cycle — the world can neither accelerate it much nor break it, which is exactly why the honest call is flat-to-modestly-growing earnings power rather than a directional inflection.
Growth position composite +5
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
50Next 2 quarters · Holding
50Year 1 · Holding
50Years 2–3 · Holding
+5Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Claude Opus reviews the pipeline's raw data + every prior verdict, then writes an independent take.
No AI findings yet for BRK.B — they're generated by the pipeline (ai-findings step) when a report is run on this ticker.
GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-15 00:28:02
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly overvalued at $504 — a fortress franchise, but 1.5x book and a 2.3% FCF yield leave limited upside unless cash generation reaccelerates; I’d get interested closer to the low-$430s.

The raw numbers say Berkshire is being valued less like a cyclical insurer and more like a quasi-sovereign compounding machine, and that premium is not crazy but it is no longer cheap. At roughly $1.08T of market cap against $717B of equity, investors are paying about 1.52x book for a business earning a 9.3% ROE and 5.5% ROA. That spread matters: if book compounds around high-single digits and the valuation multiple stays flat, you are looking at a similar high-single-digit shareholder return profile before any re-rating. The P/E of 16.2 sounds ordinary until you remember Berkshire’s earnings are heavily distorted by investment marks and capital gains; still, even taking the smoother measures available here, free cash flow of $25.0B is only a 2.3% FCF yield on market cap, and operating cash flow of $46.0B is only 4.3%. For a company of this maturity, those are not bargain levels.

What stands out most is the disconnect between the “mature earner” label and the actual trend in the reported numbers. Revenue has gone from $439.3B in 2023 to $424.2B in 2024 to $410.5B in 2025, a two-year decline of about 6.6%. Net income has fallen from $96.2B to $89.0B to $67.0B, down 30% in two years. The momentum flags are ugly for a reason: revenue CAGR of -3.3%, earnings CAGR of -16.6%, FCF CAGR of -27.6%, and recent earnings down 24.8% year over year. Some of that is accounting noise; with Berkshire, it always is. But you do not get to dismiss all of it. When a trillion-dollar company with vast scale is showing shrinking revenue, shrinking earnings, and a single-digit ROE while trading above 1.5x book, the burden of proof shifts to the bull case that capital allocation magic will close the gap. The balance sheet is undeniably strong — $51.9B cash and only 0.18 debt/equity against $717B of equity — but the briefing itself hints that the cash pile is actually far larger at the parent and investment level than the basic cash line captures, which cuts both ways: safety, yes, but also evidence Berkshire is struggling to deploy incremental capital at rates that justify a premium multiple.

The deeper story is that Berkshire’s quality is real, but quality is already what you are paying for. A 16.3% net margin on over $410B of revenue, low leverage, and fortress equity capital are exceptional for a diversified insurer-conglomerate. The problem is that the market cap already embeds that exceptionalism while the operating and cash-flow outputs are not accelerating. If this were at 1.2x book or 12x earnings, I would lean hard the other way because the downside on a balance sheet this sturdy is limited. At 1.5x book and 2.65x sales, I think investors are underwriting a level of resilience and future deployment optionality that leaves modest upside at best. This looks more like a durable compounder priced for durability than a mispriced compounding opportunity.

The best argument against this read is that Berkshire’s reported income statement is a poor proxy for economic earning power, and the bearish momentum signals are therefore misleading. A smart bull would point out that 2022’s -$22.8B net loss and the swings to $96.2B, $89.0B, and $67.0B are driven materially by investment-market volatility, not deterioration in the railroad, utility, manufacturing, energy, or insurance franchises. They would also say book value understates intrinsic value because many wholly owned businesses sit on the books at old carrying values, so 1.52x book may not be demanding for an entity with irreplaceable assets and superior tax-efficient capital allocation. I agree with parts of that. Berkshire deserves to trade above book and at a premium to ordinary insurers because its liabilities are unusually advantaged and its capital allocation record is unmatched. I just weigh the current price differently because the premium is no longer small, the growth metrics are not bailing you out, and even after adjusting for accounting distortions, the cash generation shown here is not sufficient to call $504 an obvious bargain.

What would change my mind is not a narrative about quality; that is already established. I would turn more constructive if the next annual set showed either a clear reacceleration in operating cash flow and free cash flow — say OCF moving above $55B and FCF back above $35B — or evidence that book value and normalized earnings power are compounding fast enough to support double-digit returns from today’s price. Likewise, a pullback toward roughly 1.3x book, which on the current equity base would imply a market cap closer to $930B and a B-share price in the low-$430s, would make the risk/reward more attractive. Absent that, I see Berkshire as an excellent company priced about where an excellent company should be.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-15 00:28:39
Verdict Fairly valued at $504 — 1.52× book and 16× falling earnings price in stability that the −3% revenue / −25% NI trend does not yet support

Berkshire’s 2025 print tells a story of a fortress that is no longer compounding at the rate the brand implies. Revenue slipped from $439.34B in 2023 to $424.23B in 2024 and $410.52B in 2025, a clean three-year glide that produces a −3.3% revenue CAGR and a −3.2% latest-year decline. Net income compressed harder—$96.22B to $89.00B to $66.97B—leaving a −16.6% earnings CAGR and a −24.8% year-over-year drop. At $504 the stock screens at 16.2× that reduced earnings power and 1.52× the $717.42B book value, squarely inside the long-run 1.2–1.6× band rather than at a discount. Free cash flow of $25.04B on $45.97B of operating cash flow remains enormous in absolute dollars, yet the −27.6% FCF CAGR shows the same deceleration. ROE of 9.3% and ROA of 5.5% are adequate for a diversified insurer-conglomerate but ordinary relative to the quality premium the shares have historically commanded. Debt of $129B against equity of $717B (D/E 0.18) keeps the balance sheet pristine; the reported $51.9B cash line looks thin only because Berkshire’s true liquidity sits largely in short-term Treasuries not captured here. The numbers therefore describe a mature earner whose top line and mark-to-market earnings are rolling over while the multiple has not compressed to match.

The contradiction worth catching is between the tidy 16× P/E / 1.5× P/B “modest expectations” framing and the actual trajectory. Those multiples would be reasonable if earnings were troughing and float-driven book value were still compounding at low-double-digits. Instead, both revenue and reported profits are already negative, FCF quality is labeled good but shrinking fast, and secondary signals flag macro headwinds plus below-sector benchmarks. A 16× multiple on a −25% earnings year is not cheap; it is a bet that 2025 is an aberration rather than the new run-rate. With market cap already $1.08T, even the $25B FCF yield is only ~2.3%, leaving little margin of safety if insurance underwriting or the equity portfolio softens further.

The strongest opposing case starts with 2022’s −$22.8B loss, which mechanically wrecks multi-year CAGRs and makes the subsequent recovery look weaker than operating reality. Strip unrealized investment swings and Berkshire’s underlying insurance float, BNSF, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and manufacturing earnings have historically been far stickier than the GAAP NI series implies; a normalized mid-cycle earnings power closer to the $80–90B zone would put the stock nearer 12–13×, which is attractive for this franchise. The 1.52× book multiple also sits only mid-cycle, and any large cash deployment—another precision-castparts-scale deal or accelerated buybacks below 1.4×—would re-rate the equity. Net margin of 16.3% and a still-fortress balance sheet give the bull the raw materials for that re-rating if capital allocation stays sharp post-Buffett transition anxiety.

I would flip to a clear undervalued call if trailing-twelve-month operating earnings (ex-mark-to-market) re-accelerate above $90B while the P/B drifts under 1.30×, or if a transformative acquisition is announced at a demonstrably accretive price. Conversely, another year of revenue contraction combined with ROE stuck below 9% at a 1.5×+ book multiple would push me to outright overvalued.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 5.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), plus AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-15 00:37:28
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Fortress business at a fair price with quiet crosswinds - hold, don't chase, and keep dry powder for a real dip toward $440.
The cruxWhether patience gets rewarded with a 12-15% pullback that re-engages the buyback, or the stock simply drifts and you earn the underlying ROE at fair value.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from BRK.B's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+83
Fortress
edge √Σ 154 · risk √Σ 35 · conf 9/10

The balance sheet is essentially unassailable. Liquid cash of $373.31B against net cash of $244.23B (34.6% of market cap) means survival risk is not a live question at any conceivable stress level. Free cash flow runs $22-30B in normal years (2025: $25.04B), fully self-funding, and the diluted share count has declined every year from 2.27B (2021) to 2.16B (2025), a -1.2% CAGR — per-share value is being concentrated. Earnings quality passes mechanical checks: OCF/NI of 1.17x, accruals just 1.3% of assets, no Beneish flag. Altman Z of 2.5 sits in the grey zone but that is a known artifact of insurance/financial conglomerates where the ratio is a poor fit, not a distress signal given the cash pile.

Strengths 4
m95
Fortress liquidity
$373.31B liquid cash and $244.23B net cash — roughly a third of market cap sits in cash. Effectively zero survival risk.
m75
Per-share concentration
Diluted shares fell from 2.27B (2021) to 2.16B (2025), a -1.2% CAGR. Management is a net buyer, not a diluter.
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.17x and accruals just 1.3% of assets in 2025 — reported earnings are backed by cash, not accruals.
m65
Durable earnings power
Net income averaged ~$80B across 2021, 2023-2025 (with 2022's $-22.76B being mark-to-market equity swings, not operating loss). FCF has been positive every year.
Concerns 3
m25
Reported earnings volatility
GAAP net income swings ($-22.76B in 2022 vs $96.22B in 2023) reflect equity portfolio mark-to-market, which obscures operating trends. FCF is a cleaner read but also lumpy ($11.62B in 2024 vs $29.79B in 2023).
m20
Capital-deployment drag
The massive cash pile signals difficulty finding scaled investments at acceptable returns — a quality issue only in that compounding on $370B+ of idle cash is structurally constrained.
m15
Revenue plateau
Revenue is flat-to-down from $439.34B (2023) to $410.52B (2025). Not distress, but growth is not the story.
This is as close to a fortress as US-listed businesses get. The cash position alone would let it absorb almost any macro shock, earnings are cash-backed, and management is quietly shrinking the share count rather than issuing paper. The reasons I don't push higher: GAAP earnings are noisy because of equity mark-to-market, FCF is lumpier than you'd want at this scale, and the sheer size of the cash pile is itself evidence that finding return on incremental capital is getting harder. Business quality is unambiguously top-decile, but 'generational' requires cleaner compounding evidence than a flat revenue line and $370B parked in bills.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Operating earnings ex-investment-gains by segment (insurance underwriting, BNSF, BHE, manufacturing) to confirm operating durability behind GAAP volatility
  • Insurance float trend and combined ratios at GEICO and reinsurance units
  • Composition of the $373B liquid position (T-bills vs equities) and any concentration in top equity holdings
  • Succession/governance disclosures post-Buffett transition
  • Reason for 2024 FCF dip to $11.62B (working capital, capex at BNSF/BHE, or one-offs)
Valuation / Mispricing
-28
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 50 · risk √Σ 79 · conf 7/10
Price $504 vs deserved ~$490-520 on a sum-of-parts read; gap is inside the noise, call it fair. attractive below $440.00

Without a formal e2e fair-value handoff, I anchor on what Berkshire actually is: ~$373B in liquid cash (roughly $173/B-share of the $504 price is cash and equivalents), a marked-to-market equity book, and a collection of operating businesses (insurance, BNSF, BHE, manufacturing/services) that earn durable, cash-backed profits. At a $1.08T market cap, the market is paying a reasonable but not cheap multiple on the operating earnings power once you strip out cash and the equity portfolio. Historically Berkshire has traded around 1.4-1.6x book; at current levels it sits toward the upper end of that band, which is consistent with 'fairly valued' rather than a gift.

Cheap signals 2
m40
Fortress quality deserves a premium the market only partly pays
Clean accruals, self-funding, shrinking share count, and shock-absorbing balance sheet justify a modest premium to book; at ~1.5x book that premium is present but not excessive.
m30
Operating earnings power understated by GAAP noise
Equity mark-to-market makes reported EPS lumpy; look-through earnings from operating subs plus dividends/retained earnings of the equity portfolio suggest the earnings yield on the ex-cash stub is respectable, not stretched.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
Trading near the top of its historical P/B band
Berkshire has repeatedly repurchased stock when it viewed shares as cheap; buyback pace has slowed materially, which is Buffett/management signaling the stock is no longer obviously undervalued.
m45
Cash pile is a drag, not a hidden asset here
The $373B cash is real, but at these levels it earns T-bill yields while management struggles to deploy it - the market already credits the cash, so it does not create additional upside from here.
m35
No margin of safety at $504
Buying a fortress at fair price gives you the business's compounding, not a valuation tailwind - expected return here is roughly the underlying ROE, not ROE plus multiple expansion.
It's a fortress at a fair price - fine to hold, hard to get excited about buying here. I want a real discount before I add: something like a 12-15% pullback that would put shares closer to $440, where the buyback would likely re-engage aggressively and the margin of safety is genuine. At $504 the math says you earn the business's compounding, not a mispricing.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Pace and price of Q buybacks in the 10-Q (best real-time signal of management's own valuation view)
  • Operating earnings ex-investment gains trend across insurance underwriting, BNSF, and BHE
  • Cash and Treasury bill balance and any large deployment (acquisition or equity purchase)
  • Float growth and insurance combined ratio
General Sentiment
-1
Balanced
tail √Σ 39 · head √Σ 40 · conf 6/10

The market tape is modestly risk-on (VIX 14.3, S&P near highs) but at beta 0.61 BRK.B captures little of that lift - it is a defensive, cash-rich insurance conglomerate that neither benefits meaningfully from euphoria nor gets punished in mild stress. There is no active narrative pulling capital in or out; the stock is not part of the AI trade, not a rate-sensitive REIT, not a story stock. That absence of narrative is itself the dominant sentiment fact: BRK.B trades on its own gravity, not on tape or theme. Recent momentum has been soft (-3.3% CAGR, underperforming) which suggests some rotation OUT of defensives and into higher-beta risk assets as the risk-on regime persists - a mild headwind, but ordinary crosswind territory, not decisive. Higher long rates (10y 4.63%) are a small net positive for the float-earnings story but the market is not currently pricing that in as a narrative. Analyst tone is not flagged as diverging. Net: a genuinely balanced read - no dominant force in either direction, just quiet drift while risk-on money chases higher-beta names elsewhere.

Tailwinds 2
m30
No narrative to break
BRK.B has no active bull/bear story that can crack. That insulates it from the narrative de-ratings hitting story stocks and leaves it as a boring safe haven bid if the tape turns.
m25
Higher rates help float economics
10y at 4.63% quietly benefits Berkshire's massive cash and insurance float - a real but under-narrated tailwind that the market has not turned into a bid.
Headwinds 2
m35
Defensive rotation-out in risk-on tape
With VIX at 14.3 and the market near highs, capital rotates toward higher-beta growth and away from low-beta defensives like BRK.B. Beta 0.61 means it lags the rally, and soft recent momentum (-3.3% CAGR) is consistent with that quiet outflow.
m20
Ordinary macro valuation crosswind
Market PE 26.2 is stretched; broad multiple compression risk applies to all equities, but BRK.B's lower multiple and defensive profile mute the hit.
There is no dominant sentiment force on this name right now. The risk-on tape gently pulls money away from low-beta defensives, and momentum has been soft, but BRK.B has no narrative to collapse and no story to inflate - it trades on its own gravity. This is a genuinely balanced sentiment read; if the tape cracks, this becomes a relative tailwind quickly, but today it is quiet drift.
Verify before trusting this (3)
  • Any Buffett succession or capital-deployment headline that could inject a narrative (either direction)
  • Whether the risk-on regime persists - a VIX spike would flip BRK.B into a relative safe-haven bid
  • Signs of a defensive rotation back in (breadth narrowing, mega-cap growth stalling)
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
+38
Moderately favorable - AI arrives as electricity demand and claims cost, not as substitution
opp √Σ 108 · thr √Σ 0 · conf 6/10

AI reaches Berkshire through four separate channels that must not be blended: (1) insurance underwriting, where cheap intelligence commoditizes analytic skill but cannot commoditize the capital and regulatory license that actually absorbs loss — mildly negative for GEICO's relative edge, neutral-to-positive for Ajit Jain's capacity-scarcity reinsurance; (2) energy, where AI compute demand is a direct, sizable rate-base tailwind and dispatchable capacity becomes scarcer; (3) the operating subsidiaries — BNSF, manufacturing, retail, services — where AI is an ordinary cost-efficiency story that a decentralized, capital-disciplined structure will harvest slowly but keep, since most units are not in seat-priced software competition; (4) capital allocation, which is untouched: the scarce thing is willingness and capacity to write a $10bn check on 48 hours' notice, and abundant intelligence does not create that. Net: low substitution risk, real but modest cost benefit, one genuine competitive erosion in personal auto.

AI opportunities 8
m62
Underlying Need Persistence
Risk transfer, electricity, freight and consumer goods are needs cheap intelligence intensifies rather than removes.
m31
Solution Persistence
The delivery form persists; only auto insurance distribution is genuinely up for renegotiation.
m56
Responsibility Transfer
Berkshire is paid explicitly to own consequences no model can absorb.
m34
Scarcity Migration
AI makes power, grid access and permanent capital scarcer — Berkshire owns all three.
m36
Customer DIY Preference
Nobody self-insures tail risk or self-builds a grid because software got cheap.
m13
AI Margin Conversion
Claims and admin automation savings are real but partly competed away through regulated rate filings.
m30
Revenue Unit Durability
Premiums, kilowatt-hours and ton-miles are physically anchored units, not seats or hours.
m16
Entrant Compression
Cheap software builds an insurtech front end, not the capital, ratings or franchises behind it.
AI threats 0

None surfaced.

Berkshire is an AI beneficiary by ownership of the complements — power, capital, physical networks — with one real erosion risk in GEICO that decides whether the position scores 61 or 42. The underappreciated channel is BHE: AI compute load is a rate-base expansion story funded at a cost of capital nobody bidding for the same generation assets can match, and it shows up in capex guidance and signed data-center load before it shows up in earnings. The offsetting risk is that agentic price shopping plus commoditized segmentation dissolves GEICO's advertising moat, turning personal auto into a pure cost fight — watch policies-in-force alongside the combined ratio and ad spend per new policy. Responsibility transfer at 85 and scarcity migration at 72 are why the downside is bounded; the decentralized structure at data leverage 54 is why the upside is slower than a focused competitor's.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • Mega-cat and mega-limit deals written
  • Statutory surplus and float growth
  • Ratings agency commentary
  • BHE rate-base and capex plans
  • Data-center load contracts signed
  • Cash and Treasury balance deployment
  • GEICO expense ratio trajectory
  • Small-carrier loss-ratio convergence
The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
Growth Outlook
+5
Holding
edge √Σ 91 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10

The macro setup is a two-sided coin for Berkshire uniquely: a 4.63% 10y and elevated front-end rates pay the cash mountain and float handsomely, while simultaneously suppressing housing-linked manufacturing, retail furnishings and freight volumes, and raising utility financing cost. Firm P&C pricing in a steady insurance cycle supports underwriting. Net effect is a business that self-hedges the cycle — the world can neither accelerate it much nor break it, which is exactly why the honest call is flat-to-modestly-growing earnings power rather than a directional inflection.

Growth drivers 5
m63
Float + cash earning high short rates
An enormous short-duration cash/T-bill book compounds directly into pretax investment income while the 10y sits at 4.63 and the curve is only mildly positive (0.48). This is the single largest incremental earnings source of the last two years and requires no operating execution — it is arithmetic on the balance sheet.
m48
Insurance underwriting margin normalization
GEICO's rate actions and expense discipline restored underwriting margin, and the reinsurance/specialty units are writing at firm P&C pricing in a 'steady' category. Policy-count regrowth after the 2022-23 shrink adds premium volume on an already-repaired loss ratio.
m29
Regulated utility rate-base growth
BHE's capex-driven rate base grows earnings semi-mechanically, with wildfire-liability overhang the main offset. Low-beta, contractual growth that does not depend on the economic cycle.
m26
Capital deployment optionality under new CEO
Idle cash at this scale means any large acquisition or repurchase window converts a zero-growth asset into an earnings-accretive one; the earnings-power floor only moves up from here. Optionality, not a dated catalyst.
m24
Consistent estimate outperformance
Four beats in the last five prints (+18%, +24%, +4%, +9%) versus one miss suggests the sell-side model systematically under-captures investment income and underwriting normalization, even allowing for unmodellable equity marks.
Growth risks 5
m53
Short-rate sensitivity of the cash engine
The biggest recent growth driver reverses if the front end falls: a 100bp cut cycle removes several billion of pretax interest income with nothing operationally to replace it. This is the clearest path from Holding to Stalling.
m48
Law of large numbers / scale drag
At ~$1.07T market cap and a revenue base of this size, the multi-year record is negative (revenue CAGR -3.3%, earnings CAGR -16.6%) and no single acquisition can move the aggregate much. Structural growth converges toward nominal GDP at best.
m34
Cyclical exposure in the non-insurance stack
BNSF volumes, Clayton Homes, Shaw and building products are levered to freight and housing; 'Macro Headwinds' with a 4.63 10y keeps this cluster suppressed and caps consolidated operating growth.
m29
Catastrophe and GAAP volatility
A single heavy cat season or an equity-portfolio drawdown swings reported earnings violently — recent earnings YoY of -24.8% is largely this effect and it cuts both ways, making any single print unreliable evidence.
m21
Reported share gap vs industry
Recent YoY -3.2% against ~5.2% industry growth is an -8.4pp gap. Most of it is accounting optics, but GEICO's earlier policy-count retreat versus faster-growing direct competitors shows the risk is not purely cosmetic.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y inline · 2-3y unknown
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
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Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for BRK.B — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06