For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +4 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 49 · Value -33 · Sentiment 41 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $238.08 vs $235.17 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Cardinal Health Inc.
CAH NYSECardinal Health Inc. is a healthcare services and products company that supports the movement of medicines, medical supplies, and clinical products across the healthcare system. The company distributes branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceuticals to pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers, while also supplying medical-surgical products and equipment to facilities in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its offerings include customized solutions for hospitals, health systems, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, and physician offices, along with performance and data solutions designed to improve supply chain efficiency. Cardinal Health plays a central role in medical distribution, helping connect manufacturers, providers, and care settings through large-scale logistics and product support. Headquartered in Dublin, Ohio, Cardinal Health is a major participant in the healthcare supply chain and serves a broad range of customers across the industry.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.23
Total Equity: -$2.72B
Shares: 237,000,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.86B
EBITDA: $3.57B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.86B
Revenue: $254.25B
Revenue: $254.25B
Revenue: $254.25B
Total Equity: -$2.72B
Tax Rate: 21.6%
Equity: -$2.72B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.86B
Current Liabilities: $43.90B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: -$2.72B
Shares: 237,000,000
Shares: 237,000,000
CapEx: -$649.00M
Shares: 237,000,000
Stock Price: $235.19
Net Income: $1.71B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 8:02pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $181.4B | $205.0B | $226.8B | $222.6B | $254.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $174.8B | $198.1B | $219.4B | $214.4B | $244.5B |
| Gross Profit | $6.5B | $6.9B | $7.4B | $8.2B | $9.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $7.1B | $6.2B | $6.2B | $5.9B | $7.2B |
| Operating Income | -$596.0M | $727.0M | $1.2B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| Net Income | -$933.0M | $261.0M | $852.0M | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| EBITDA | $96.0M | $1.4B | $2.0B | $3.1B | $3.6B |
| EPS | $-3.35 | $1.00 | $3.48 | $6.48 | $7.27 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-3.35 | $1.00 | $3.45 | $6.45 | $7.23 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 8:02pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $4.7B | $4.0B | $5.1B | $3.9B | $4.9B |
| Total Current Assets | $32.9B | $33.8B | $34.9B | $36.4B | $38.8B |
| Total Assets | $43.9B | $43.4B | $45.1B | $53.1B | $57.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $30.6B | $33.7B | $35.6B | $38.9B | $43.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $44.6B | $46.3B | $48.3B | $55.8B | $60.0B |
| Total Equity | -$706.0M | -$2.9B | -$3.2B | -$2.6B | -$2.7B |
| Retained Earnings | -$280.0M | -$534.0M | -$286.0M | $783.0M | $2.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 8:02pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.1B | $2.8B | $3.8B | $2.4B | $5.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$387.0M | -$481.0M | -$511.0M | -$547.0M | -$649.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B | $2.4B | $3.3B | $1.9B | $4.5B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$22.0M | -$10.0M | -$1.2B | -$5.3B | -$2.0B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$885.0M | -$579.0M | $357.0M | $2.5B | $347.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$559.0M | -$525.0M | -$499.0M | -$494.0M | -$491.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.0B | -$2.0B | -$750.0M | -$765.0M | -$1.4B |
| Net Change in Cash | $1.3B | -$674.0M | $1.1B | -$1.3B | $982.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 8:02pm (7d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +13.0% | +10.6% | -1.9% | +14.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +5.3% | +7.6% | +10.2% | +19.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | +222.0% | +71.0% | +83.0% | +14.9% |
| Net Income Growth | +128.0% | +226.4% | +83.2% | +9.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | +1,378.1% | +37.6% | +56.9% | +16.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:51pm (12d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-01 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-01 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-01 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-02 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-01 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-01 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-28 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-29 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-02 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-31 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-30 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:15The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw tape: revenue grew from $181B (FY22) to $254B (FY26), a 8.8% CAGR, but that headline overstates the underlying business because FY22 was pre-recovery from opioid charges. What matters more is the margin arc — operating income went from -$596M in FY22 to $2.61B in FY26, and net income from -$933M to $1.71B. That's real, not accounting noise. The most recent two quarters (Sep and Dec 2025) show revenue of $64.0B and $65.6B — up 22% and 19% YoY respectively — with net margin holding at 0.7%. So the "accelerating" tag is fair, but the acceleration is largely a big contract win (likely OptumRx onboarding or similar large customer), not organic pricing power. Drug distribution doesn't suddenly grow 20% for structural reasons. Expect that YoY comp to normalize back toward 4-6% within 2-3 quarters.
On valuation, I disagree with the synthesis "undervalued" verdict. P/E of 36x on a distributor earning 0.7% net margin is not cheap — it's expensive by every historical Cardinal comparable (CAH traded 12-18x for most of the last decade). EV/EBITDA of 17x is likewise rich for medical distribution; McKesson and Cencora trade closer to 12-14x. The FCF story is better — $4.53B FCF against a $54.7B market cap is a ~8.3% FCF yield, which does support the price. But the composite fair value of $238 is essentially the current price, and the "signal-adjusted" $289 pull relies on extrapolating that 14% recent revenue YoY, which is a mistake in a scale-distribution business. If you normalize to 5% revenue growth and hold operating margin at ~1.0-1.1%, you get NI closer to $1.8-2.0B in FY28 — that's a 27-30x forward multiple at today's price, not obviously undervalued.
The contrarian read the models are underweighting: negative book equity of -$2.72B combined with a current ratio below 1 (0.94) is not benign. Cardinal has been aggressively buying back stock and paying dividends against a thin balance sheet, and the debt line is missing from the data provided — that's a material gap. If net leverage is 2.5-3.0x EBITDA (typical for CAH), then the equity cushion argument disappears entirely and this becomes a levered FCF vehicle vulnerable to any working capital shock (drug pricing deflation, a large customer loss like the historical CVS episode, or GPO renegotiation). The insider activity is uninformative — all awards, one 100-share token sale — so ignore the "neutral" tag; it's just grant season noise. The narrative layer nailed it: no story premium, no cult, just fundamentals doing 85% of the work. That's why I don't see a re-rating catalyst. What re-rates a mature distributor from 15x to 36x and then higher? Nothing I can point to.
Where the models are wrong: the synthesis treats 14.2% recent revenue YoY and 41.8% earnings CAGR as durable inputs into fair value. Both are recovery-math artifacts — earnings CAGR from a $261M FY23 base to $1.71B FY26 is not repeatable, and the revenue jolt is contract-driven. Pre-flight got it right calling this a "traditional" volume play but then hand-waved past the fact that 36x P/E on that business is aggressive. Market forces analysis failed entirely. Net-net: I think fair value is closer to $185-210 (14-16x normalized $12-13 EPS, or ~10-11x EV/EBITDA on ~$5B EBITDA), not $290. The FCF yield keeps me from calling it a short, and the dividend + buyback flywheel puts a floor under the stock, but paying 36x trailing for 5-6% normalized top-line growth is not a value trade — it's momentum-chasing a re-rating that already happened.
GPT Reading
At $235, Cardinal is not a cheap “defensive compounder”; it is an excellent business in a structurally low-margin industry being valued as if its recent earnings step-up is both durable and still underappreciated. The raw numbers say otherwise. Revenue has clearly accelerated, from $181.4B in 2022 to $254.3B in 2026, with the latest two quarters up sharply year over year: $64.0B vs $52.3B and $65.6B vs $55.3B. But this is distribution: what matters is spread capture, and the margin structure remains razor-thin. Gross margin is only 3.67%, operating margin 1.02%, and net margin 0.7% on the latest annual figures. Even after a strong recovery from 2022’s loss and 2023’s depressed $261M net income, 2026 net income is only $1.71B on $254B of sales. That is progress, but not enough to justify 36.5x earnings and 17.2x EV/EBITDA for a company with sub-1% net margins and limited room for error.
What stands out most is the mismatch between the quality of cash generation and the quality of accounting equity/earnings. Free cash flow of $4.53B versus net income of $1.71B is strong, and operating cash flow of $5.17B on just $649M of capex confirms this is a capital-light model. That is the best part of the story. But investors are already paying for it: the stock trades at roughly 12x FCF, which is reasonable, not obviously distressed. In other words, the P/E looks inflated partly because buybacks and historical charges have driven equity to negative $2.72B and distorted the accounting optics, but even on enterprise metrics the stock is not cheap. The recent quarterly earnings trend also does not scream hidden upside: September and December 2025 net income of $450M and $467M were only modestly above the prior-year $416M and $400M despite much stronger sales. That suggests the company is pushing more volume through without much incremental profitability. For a distributor, that is normal; for a stock at this multiple, it is a problem.
I also think the “mature earner undervalued” framing misses that most of the rerating has already happened in the fundamentals. Operating income has gone from negative in 2022 to $2.61B in 2026, and net income from a $933M loss to $1.71B. The market has noticed. A 0.26x sales multiple may look optically low, but sales multiples are almost useless here because 96 cents of every revenue dollar disappears before gross profit. On gross profit of $9.77B, the company is trading at about 5.6x gross profit; on operating income, about 21x market cap. Those are not bargain levels for a distributor exposed to customer concentration, pricing pressure, working-capital volatility, and policy risk. The current ratio under 1.0 is not alarming in this business, but it underscores how little balance-sheet slack there is if operating conditions worsen. I read this as a good company, well run, but fully valued to somewhat overvalued after the earnings rehabilitation.
The best case against this view is straightforward and respectable: Cardinal may deserve a premium because the earnings base is cleaner now, opioid overhangs are better contained, and cash conversion is meaningfully stronger than GAAP net income suggests. If $4.5B of annual FCF is sustainable, then a mid-teens FCF multiple is not crazy for a defensive healthcare infrastructure asset, especially if management continues shrinking the share count and mix-shifting toward higher-value segments. Revenue momentum is real, with the latest annual sales up 14% from 2025, and operating income rose from $1.24B in 2024 to $2.28B in 2025 and $2.61B in 2026, so there is evidence of more than just commodity volume pass-through. A bull would also say negative equity is mostly an accounting artifact, not distress, and that a 0.87% dividend yield with a 31.7% payout leaves ample room for continued capital returns. I weigh those points less heavily because at 36x earnings the burden of proof is on sustained margin expansion, and the quarterly data still shows a business earning less than 1% net on vastly higher revenue.
What would change my mind is simple: if Cardinal can prove that recent revenue growth is translating into durable earnings leverage, the multiple can hold. Specifically, I would want to see annual operating margin move decisively above 1.0% toward 1.2%-1.3%, net income sustain above $2.0B, and free cash flow remain at or above $4.5B without one-off working-capital help. On the quarterly cadence, if revenue keeps growing double digits but net income starts printing $550M-$650M quarters consistently rather than hovering in the mid-$400Ms, that would support a more constructive view. Absent that, I think the stock is priced for a quality and growth profile the numbers do not yet fully support.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a scale machine that has finally started converting volume into cleaner cash. Cardinal Health just posted FY2026 revenue of $254.25B and net income of $1.71B, up from $222.58B and $1.56B the prior year, with free cash flow of $4.53B on only $649M of capex. Recent quarters show the acceleration clearly: revenue ran $65.63B and $64.01B in the two most recent periods versus $55.26B and $52.28B a year earlier, a roughly 14% year-over-year lift that sits well above the 5.9% multi-year revenue CAGR. Net margins remain wafer-thin at 0.7%, but they have stabilized after the 2022 loss year, and operating cash flow of $5.17B now dwarfs reported earnings—classic distributor economics where working-capital velocity and payables float do the heavy lifting. The balance sheet still carries negative equity of $2.72B and a current ratio of 0.94, the residue of buybacks and legacy opioid cash outflows, yet the cash generation is unambiguous and the 8.3% FCF yield on the $54.7B market cap is the single most supportive fundamental anchor at $235.
What the market is paying for is the re-rating of that cash flow stream, not the accounting earnings. A 36.5x P/E and 17.2x EV/EBITDA look stretched for a 1% operating-margin middleman, and the 0.26x sales multiple is only “cheap” because distributors always look cheap on sales. The earnings CAGR of 41.8% is real but is measured off a depressed base; recent earnings growth has already decelerated to high single digits. Insider activity is almost entirely routine awards with a single trivial sale, offering no incremental signal. The story the data tell is therefore one of a mature earner that has exited the litigation valley, is growing the top line faster than its long-term trend, and is throwing off excess cash—but is no longer inexpensive on the multiples that matter once the recovery is priced in.
The strongest opposing case is that $235 already embeds the good news and then some. A smart skeptic would note that EV/EBITDA above 17x and a mid-30s P/E leave little room for the structural margin pressure that GPOs, generic deflation, and potential disintermediation have historically inflicted on this industry. Negative equity and a sub-1.0 current ratio are not cosmetic; they constrain financial flexibility if working-capital cycles reverse or another large settlement appears. The valuation synthesis composite fair value of roughly $239 is essentially the current price; the jump to a $290 signal-adjusted target requires sustained mid-single-digit growth plus further multiple expansion that the thin, low-intensity narrative does not obviously support. I weigh the FCF yield and accelerating revenue more heavily than the elevated earnings multiple because cash conversion has been consistent and capex light, but I concede the multiple risk is the clearest path to a 15–20% drawdown if growth normalizes to 4–5%.
I would flip to a clear undervalued stance if the next two quarters deliver revenue growth still above 10% with net margins holding at or above 0.7% and FCF remaining above $1B per quarter, or if management accelerates capital returns without levering the balance sheet further. I would flip bearish if revenue growth slips back below 5% year-over-year while EV/EBITDA stays above 16x, or if operating cash flow covers less than 80% of net income on a trailing basis.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Cardinal Health is a classic mature distributor: revenue scaled from $181B in 2022 to $254B in 2026 (a ~9% CAGR blended, with a sharp step-up in the latest year), while gross margin expanded modestly from 3.6% to 3.8% and operating margin recovered from -0.3% to 1.0%. On the razor-thin distribution model, that operating margin move plus mix has driven net income from a $933M loss in 2022 to $1.71B in 2026, with FCF of $4.53B in the latest year against a $54.7B market cap. Cash sits at $4.86B with zero net debt burden (net cash position reported), Altman Z of 5.08, and OCF/NI of 3.3x - earnings are backed by real cash. Capital allocation is genuinely shareholder-friendly: diluted share count fell from 279M to 237M (a -4% CAGR), with buybacks running 6.5x SBC and SBC itself only 0.1% of revenue - per-share value is being concentrated, not eroded. Beneish M at -2.74 and accruals at -5.9% of assets show no manipulation flags. The concern is structural: 3.8% gross margins and 1% operating margins mean this business has essentially no cushion for error, and 2025 FCF dipped to $1.85B before rebounding, showing working-capital-driven volatility. Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative (23 sells, 0 open-market buys) but sizes are routine comp-driven, not a red flag.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Customer concentration - what % of revenue from top 3 customers (OptumRx, CVS, etc.) and contract renewal timing
- Opioid litigation liability status and remaining cash outflows scheduled
- Segment mix - how much of margin improvement came from GMPD (medical products) turnaround vs Pharma
- Working capital dynamics behind 2025 FCF dip vs 2026 rebound
- Any material acquisitions (e.g. GI Alliance, Specialty Networks) inflating 2026 revenue step-up and their integration risk
The composite FV of $238.62 sits within 1.5% of the $235.17 price — the definition of fairly valued. The signal-adjusted FV of $289.97 implies 23% upside, but the method spread is telling: DCF says $332, anchored P/E says $188, and EPV floor says $101. That range (roughly 3x from low to high) means the DCF is doing most of the lifting and is likely capitalizing a rosy terminal margin on a business that runs at ~1% operating margins with no room to miss. Anchored P/E at $188 is arguably the most honest lens for a low-growth distributor and implies the stock is ~20% rich, not cheap. The EPV of $101 is a runaway-low outlier for a business generating real FCF and buying back stock, so I discount it as a floor artifact.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Segment operating margin trend in Pharmaceutical distribution — any spread compression from GPO renegotiations
- Opioid settlement cash outflow schedule and remaining liability tail
- Buyback pace and share count trajectory in the next 10-Q
- Guidance on generic deflation and biosimilar mix impact on gross profit per script
CAH is riding a modest but real tailwind. The tape is risk-on (VIX 14, S&P near highs), and while a 0.52-beta distributor barely surfs that wave, it also means macro headwinds like the 4.63% 10y and 26x market PE don't press hard here either - defensive healthcare infrastructure is exactly what dip-buyers rotate into when they want yield and stability without duration risk. The narrative is 'minimal intensity, durable' - a steady-compounder story that isn't running ahead of fundamentals and isn't cracking, so there's no story-driven downside pressure to fight. The active push is news-driven: an earnings beat drove shares to a record $258 print, the CEO is out doing M&A/specialty-pharma media rounds, and coverage frames guidance as 'above Street.' Analyst tone is skewing constructive on specialty momentum. There's no euphoria, no cult, no meme risk - just a slow-drip positive re-rating on execution. The main non-fundamental risk is that the stock has already absorbed the good news (price anchor $235 sits below the $258 record, suggesting some give-back), and the 'boring middleman / Amazon threat / opioid overhang' bear frame is dormant but reactivatable on any headline.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether analyst target revisions post-Q4 keep flowing upward or stall
- Any Amazon Pharmacy / DTC pharma headline that could reawaken the disruption bear case
- Follow-through above the $258 record vs a fade back into the range
- 10y yield behavior - a sharp back-up would hit even defensive names via multiple compression
Healthcare volume demand is the most reliable growth stream in the current macro: utilization, aging demographics, specialty/biologic launches and GLP-1 uptake all push units through distributors regardless of the cycle. That makes CAH's revenue direction close to macro-immune. The world's pressure lands not on volume but on the take: payers, employers and governments are all squeezing drug and supply pricing, and manufacturers are experimenting with direct channels. So the forward shape is abundant volume, contested economics — favoring the distributors that convert scale into services and provider-side ownership (specialty MSOs) rather than pure pass-through logistics. CAH is executing that pivot, which is why it can grow earnings while the category's aggregate earnings fall.
When we made this prediction on Aug 16, 2026, CAH was $235.17. We expect it to be $265.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $195.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 16, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.