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AGING Analysis Report
Jul 30, 2026
23 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Jul 30, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 19 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -5 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 82 · Value -77 · Sentiment 50 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $82.20 vs $332.82 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.

CDNS NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Application
San Jose, CA 95134, United States cadence.com Updated Jul 30, 8:33pm
Price
$332.82
Market Cap
$91.7B
Employees
15,445
Beta
1.15
Avg Volume
2,493,170
CEO
Dr. Anirudh Devgan Ph.D.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is a multinational technology and computational software company specializing in electronic design automation and semiconductor intellectual property. The company develops AI-driven computational software, accelerated hardware platforms, and IP that engineers and scientists use to design integrated circuits, systems-on-chips, printed circuit boards, and increasingly full electronic systems. Its portfolio includes design and verification tools, emulation and prototyping hardware, system interconnect and analysis solutions, and a broad range of verification and design IP, supported by professional services such as design methodologies and custom process design kit development. Cadence Design Systems plays a central role in the semiconductor and electronics value chain, serving markets such as hyperscale and cloud computing, mobile communications, automotive, aerospace and defense, industrial IoT, medical technology, and life sciences. Through its Intelligent System Design strategy and global network of subsidiaries and offices, the company provides critical infrastructure that enables customers worldwide to bring complex silicon and system designs from concept to production. Founded in 1988, Cadence Design Systems is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Runs with full report Generated: Jul 30, 2026 9:44pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$332.82
as of Jul 30, 9:54pm (23d ago)
Change · Jul 30
+0.06 (+0.02%)
Day Range
$329.60 – $342.50
52-Week Range
$262.75 – $416.69
50-Day MA
$371.29
200-Day MA
$327.59
Volume
2,667,610.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 23d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 275,393,000.00
Float 272,692,067.00
Free Float 99.0%
High free float — 99.0% of shares trade freely, ~1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:54pm (23d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:54pm (23d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 30, 2026 9:41pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
81.98
Stock Price: $332.82
EPS (Diluted): 4.06
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
16.62
Stock Price: $332.82
Total Equity: $5.47B
Shares: 273,312,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
51.55
Market Cap: $91.66B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $3.00B
EBITDA: $1.72B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$88.7B
Market Cap: $91.66B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $3.00B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $5.30B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
28.2%
Operating Income: $1.49B
Revenue: $5.30B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
20.9%
Net Income: $1.11B
Revenue: $5.30B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
20.3%
Net Income: $1.11B
Total Equity: $5.47B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
44.0%
Operating Income: $1.49B
Tax Rate: 27.1%
Equity: $5.47B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $3.00B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.86
Current Assets: $4.67B
Current Liabilities: $1.64B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $5.47B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$19.38
Revenue: $5.30B
Shares: 273,312,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$20.03
Total Equity: $5.47B
Shares: 273,312,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.81
Operating CF: $1.73B
CapEx: -$141.87M
Shares: 273,312,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $332.82
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.11B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 30, 2026 9:41pm
Compares CDNS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:54pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.0B $3.6B $4.1B $4.6B $5.3B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Operating Income $779.1M $1.1B $1.3B $1.4B $1.5B
Net Income $696.0M $849.0M $1.0B $1.1B $1.1B
EBITDA $921.4M $1.2B $1.4B $1.5B $1.7B
EPS $2.54 $3.13 $3.86 $3.89 $4.09
EPS (Diluted) $2.50 $3.09 $3.82 $3.85 $4.06
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:33pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.1B $882.3M $1.0B $2.6B $3.0B
Total Current Assets $1.7B $1.7B $2.0B $4.0B $4.7B
Total Assets $4.4B $5.1B $5.7B $9.0B $10.2B
Current Liabilities $971.2M $1.3B $1.6B $1.4B $1.6B
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $1.6B $2.4B $2.3B $4.3B $4.7B
Total Equity $2.7B $2.7B $3.4B $4.7B $5.5B
Retained Earnings $3.0B $3.9B $4.9B $6.0B $7.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:54pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B $1.3B $1.7B
Capital Expenditure -$65.3M -$123.2M -$102.3M -$142.5M -$141.9M
Free Cash Flow $1.0B $1.1B $1.2B $1.1B $1.6B
Acquisitions (net) -$226.2M -$613.8M -$198.4M -$737.6M -$429.5M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$612.3M -$1.1B -$700.1M -$550.0M -$925.0M
Net Change in Cash $160.5M -$206.6M $125.8M $1.6B $357.3M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:54pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +19.2% +14.8% +13.5% +14.1%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +37.8% +16.5% +8.0% +10.5%
Net Income Growth +22.0% +22.6% +1.4% +5.1%
EBITDA Growth +30.9% +15.8% +10.8% +11.1%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:41
-0.9 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 75% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 88%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($332.82)
Bull — recovery +25% 24.4% $83.59 -75%
Base — stabilizes +17% 21.2% $57.86 -83%
Bear — keeps slipping +8% 18.0% $39.07 -88%
Stress — last quarter repeats +6% 20.2% $40.38 -88%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at 6.2% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.95). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Mar 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +18.7% · operating income +19.3% · net income +22.7% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue +6.2%, operating income +1.4% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Mar 31, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CDNS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-30 21:53:20
Verdict Overvalued but the models overshoot — true fair value ~$180-220, not $87; trim on strength, accumulate below $220 on any semi-cycle pullback.

Independent read on the numbers first: revenue trajectory is genuinely strong and accelerating in absolute dollars — $1.06B → $1.22B → $1.36B → $1.24B → $1.28B → $1.34B → $1.44B → $1.47B across the last eight quarters. That's not decelerating; the Q1'26 print of $1.47B is 39% above Q2'24 and shows sequential strength. YoY on the latest quarter is ~18.5% ($1.47B vs $1.24B), running hotter than the 13.8% CAGR the momentum module cites. Net income is lumpier — Q2'25's $160M dip is real, but trailing four quarters aggregate to roughly $1.17B, so the TTM P/E on $91.66B market cap is closer to ~78x, roughly consistent with the reported 82x. Operating margin at 28%, ROIC at 44%, zero debt, $3B cash, and $1.59B FCF — this is a genuinely elite business. The insider activity is trivial noise, not a signal (a few thousand shares off option exercises).

Where I diverge from the prior models: the synthesis "fair value $87" is almost certainly a DCF that's under-crediting either terminal growth or the durability of the EDA duopoly. Synopsys trades at similar multiples (~55-60x forward earnings) — the market is not idiosyncratically mispricing CDNS; it's pricing the entire EDA duopoly as toll-road infrastructure on semiconductor complexity. A DCF that spits out $87 on a business compounding revenue at 14%+, generating 30%+ FCF margins, with switching costs measured in engineer-decades, is using a discount rate or terminal assumption that doesn't reflect the moat. That said, "fair value is $87" and "current price $333" cannot both be right, and the DCF being wrong by 4x is itself an extraordinary claim — the more honest read is fair value is probably $150-200, still implying meaningful overvaluation, not the $87 anchor.

The Market Forces claim that CDNS is "losing competitive ground to Synopsys in AI chip design" needs scrutiny — I see no evidence in these numbers. Revenue growth is accelerating, not decelerating; margins are holding at 28%; the Q2'25 net income dip looks like a one-time item (possibly acquisition-related, given the Beta CAE / OpenEye deals in the pipeline) rather than structural compression. If Synopsys were eating CDNS's lunch on AI, you'd see it in the top line first, and you don't. The bear case that carries more weight is simpler: at 82x earnings and 17x sales, CDNS needs to sustain 15%+ growth AND multiple expansion (or at least no compression) essentially indefinitely. Any deceleration to 8-10% growth — plausible on a semi-cycle downturn or customer consolidation — and the multiple compresses toward 40-50x, implying a $170-200 stock. That's not a thesis-breaking risk; that's a valuation-normalization risk.

Contrarian angle nobody's pressing: earnings CAGR of 3.2% vs revenue CAGR of 13.8% is a genuine yellow flag the models glossed over. Something is absorbing operating leverage — likely stock-based comp and acquisition amortization — and if that persists, GAAP earnings won't scale with revenue and the P/E stays structurally elevated. Verdict: I agree directionally with the synthesis that CDNS is overvalued, but I dissent hard on the magnitude. A $87 fair value is not credible for a zero-debt, 44% ROIC, duopoly software business compounding double-digits; that number reflects DCF assumption failure more than market irrationality. My own fair value anchor is $180-220 — meaning the stock is ~40-50% overvalued, not 74%. This is a "trim, don't short; wait for a semi-cycle drawdown to accumulate below $220" setup, not a fair-value-at-$87 setup. The narrative layer's read that fundamentals explain only 20-25% of price is wrong; fundamentals plus a defensible moat premium probably explain 55-65%, with the remaining 35-45% being AI-narrative froth that will deflate on the next disappointment.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-30 21:53:38
Verdict Overvalued at $333 — elite EDA quality is undeniable, but the market is capitalizing a 14-15% grower like a hypergrowth monopoly; I’d need either >20% sustained earnings growth or a pullback toward $240-$260.

Cadence is a terrific business and, at this price, still a hard stock to own. The operating profile is exactly what investors want: revenue has compounded from $2.99B in 2021 to $5.30B in 2025, a 15%ish clip, while operating income rose from $779M to $1.49B and free cash flow reached $1.59B in 2025 on $1.73B of operating cash flow. The latest quarterly run-rate remains healthy, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.47B up about 18.5% from $1.24B a year earlier. This is not a melting-ice-cube software name; it is a mission-critical EDA franchise with real pricing power, sticky workflows, and exposure to the secular rise in chip complexity. The balance sheet is also pristine, with $3.0B of cash and no debt, which gives the company strategic flexibility and lowers fundamental risk.

What stands out to me, though, is that the stock already asks investors to pay not just for quality but for near-perfection. At a $91.7B market cap, the stock trades around 17.2x sales, roughly 82x earnings, and over 51x EV/EBITDA. Against 2025 net income of $1.11B and free cash flow of $1.59B, that is an earnings yield of barely 1.2% and an FCF yield of only about 1.7%. Those are venture-style valuation levels applied to a company whose annual revenue growth is excellent but not explosive, and whose earnings growth is much less impressive: net income went from $1.06B in 2024 to $1.11B in 2025, only about 5%, despite revenue growing 14%. Even the quarterly margin pattern deserves more caution than the bull case usually allows. Net margin ranged from 12.5% to 27.0% across the last four quarters of 2025, and while some of that is normal lumpiness, it weakens the idea that operating leverage is steadily expanding. This looks more like a premium compounder than a hypergrowth platform, yet it is valued closer to the latter.

The simplest way to frame the disconnect is this: if Cadence can keep growing revenue at 12-15% for years and sustain net margins around 21-23%, it is still difficult to justify a low-80s P/E unless one assumes either a major margin step-up or a long duration of elevated growth that extends well beyond what mature software names usually achieve. On 2025 numbers, operating margin was 28.2% and net margin 20.9%—excellent, but not so extraordinary that they overcome the multiple. If revenue reached, say, $7B over the next few years with a 25% net margin, you get roughly $1.75B of earnings; even then, today’s price would still imply a rich multiple on forward earnings several years out. That is the core issue: the business quality is real, but the market is capitalizing it as if downside is negligible and upside from AI-driven silicon complexity is both very large and highly capturable by Cadence.

The strongest counterargument is that Cadence may be one of the rare software franchises that genuinely deserves a structural premium. Return on capital near 44% and ROE above 20% are elite. Revenue has been highly consistent, cash conversion is strong, and the no-debt balance sheet matters in a cyclical semiconductor ecosystem. If AI accelerators, custom silicon, advanced packaging, and chiplets drive a step-function increase in design complexity, EDA vendors can monetize that complexity without taking foundry or inventory risk. In that world, 14-18% growth may actually prove conservative, and investors paying 17x sales are effectively underwriting a scarce monopoly-like asset rather than a normal application software company. I take that seriously. But even if I grant the moat, the current valuation still embeds too much confidence that Cadence captures the lion’s share of that AI design spend while maintaining premium economics indefinitely. Great businesses can be bad stocks when bought at heroic multiples.

What would change my mind is not another quarter of “solid” execution; the company needs to grow into the valuation faster than it has so far. I’d want to see revenue acceleration sustained above 18% for several quarters, annual net income growth reaccelerating from 5% to 20%+, and free cash flow moving decisively above $2.0B without margin degradation. A major upward shift in annual operating margin from 28% toward the low-30s would also matter because that would support the thesis that complexity is driving operating leverage, not just top-line expansion. Short of that, I would need a much lower entry price—something closer to the mid-$200s before the risk/reward starts to feel defensible for a business of this maturity.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-07-30 21:54:08
Verdict High-quality EDA compounder badly overvalued at $333 (82× P/E, ~1.7% FCF yield); fair value cluster near $85–$110 leaves 65–75% downside

Cadence is a genuinely elite business being priced as if the AI design-tool monopoly will compound at venture rates forever. Revenue has scaled cleanly from $2.99B to $5.30B over five years at a 13.8% CAGR, with the last four quarters printing $1.24B → $1.28B → $1.34B → $1.44B → $1.47B and recent year-over-year still at 14.1%. Free cash flow of $1.59B on only $142M of capex, a net-cash balance sheet ($3.0B cash, zero debt), 44% ROIC and 28% operating margins are the signature of a mature software oligopoly with real customer lock-in. That is not the problem. The problem is that net income has barely moved—$1.04B to $1.06B to $1.11B across the last three years, a 3.2% earnings CAGR—while the stock clears 82× trailing earnings, 17× sales and 52× EBITDA at $333. At a $91.7B enterprise, the FCF yield is roughly 1.7%. The quantitative fair-value cluster around $80–$87 is directionally correct: even generous terminal assumptions cannot bridge a 3–4× gap when earnings growth is a fraction of revenue growth and quarterly margins still swing from 12.5% to 27%.

The numbers also undercut the clean “AI chokepoint” acceleration story. Operating income only rose from $1.35B to $1.49B in the latest year despite the semiconductor supercycle narrative, and the secondary signals already flag decelerating quarterly revenue plus heavy insider selling around option exercises. Cadence remains a high-quality compounder, but it is compounding earnings at low-single digits while the market capitalizes it like a hyper-growth platform. That is the contradiction the models correctly surface and the narrative layer papers over: fundamentals explain maybe a quarter of the $333 price; the rest is story premium on irreplaceability that has not yet shown up in the income statement.

The strongest pushback is straightforward and deserves weight. EDA is a true duopoly with multi-year switching costs, and Cadence’s 44% ROIC and fortress balance sheet mean almost every incremental dollar of growth drops hard to cash. If custom AI silicon and chiplet architectures push sustained revenue growth into the high teens or low twenties while margins re-expand toward the upper 20s, the current multiple becomes less absurd on a five-year view—especially if Synopsys stumbles and Cadence takes share in the highest-value flows. Zero leverage and $1.6B of annual FCF also give management unlimited optionality for buybacks or tuck-in M&A without balance-sheet risk. A smart bull argues you are underpaying for scarcity of assets that sit upstream of every advanced tape-out, and that DCF anchors built on historical 14% growth systematically undervalue a structural step-up in TAM. I weigh that less because the last three years of reported earnings already include the early AI buildout and still delivered only mid-single-digit profit growth; the market is paying today for an inflection that has not appeared in the numbers.

I would flip to neutral or constructive only on two concrete developments: four consecutive quarters of revenue growth reaccelerating above 18% with operating margins sustainably above 30%, or clear evidence—via customer disclosures or design-win data—that Cadence is taking material share from Synopsys in AI accelerator flows while earnings CAGR closes the gap toward mid-teens. Absent that, multiple compression is the base case.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 2.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-30 22:04:03
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Fortress-quality EDA duopoly (Q +82) priced 3-4x any honest fair value (V -77) - admire, don't chase, even with the AI tailwind (S +50).
The cruxWhether the AI-chip-design narrative premium holds long enough for earnings to grow into a $333 price, or a moat/growth scare cracks the multiple like Synopsys.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CDNS's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+82
Fortress
edge √Σ 155 · risk √Σ 39 · conf 8/10

Cadence has grown revenue from $2.99B (2022) to $5.30B (2025), a ~15% CAGR, with operating margins holding in a tight 26-30% band and net income roughly doubling to $1.11B. FCF ended at $1.59B in 2025 with OCF/NI of 1.42x and accruals at -6.1% of assets - cash conversion is exceeding accounting profit, the opposite of the earnings-inflation pattern. Altman Z of 14.1 and $3.16B net cash confirm the balance sheet is a fortress with zero survival risk. Capital allocation is disciplined: diluted shares actually shrank (-0.5% CAGR) despite 8.6%-of-revenue SBC, because buybacks ran 232% of SBC - per-share value is being concentrated. The EDA duopoly with Synopsys is one of the more durable moat structures in software: mission-critical tools embedded in every semiconductor design flow, high switching costs, and structural tailwinds from chip complexity and AI silicon proliferation. The one soft spot is a slight operating-margin drift from 30.6% (2023) to 28.2% (2025), likely tied to the Beta CAE / systems-analysis acquisitions and hardware (Palladium/Protium) mix - worth watching but not alarming given absolute margin level and revenue acceleration. Insider tape is routine option-exercise-and-sell (M then S same day), $58.7M sold with zero buys, which is typical for a mega-cap tech at elevated share levels and not a directional red flag.

Strengths 4
m85
Duopoly EDA moat with 15% growth
Revenue $2.99B to $5.30B over four years while sustaining ~28-30% operating margins - rare combination of scale, growth, and profitability reflecting entrenched EDA position.
m80
Pristine earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.42x, accruals -6.1% of assets, Altman Z 14.1. Cash exceeds accounting income - no signs of aggressive recognition.
m75
Net buyer of own stock
Diluted share count fell from 278.9M to 273.3M despite 8.6% SBC; buybacks at 232% of SBC neutralize dilution and then some.
m70
Fortress balance sheet
$3.16B net cash, $1.59B annual FCF - fully self-funding with ample optionality for M&A or continued repurchase.
Concerns 3
m30
Operating margin drift
OpM peaked at 30.6% in 2023 and slipped to 28.2% by 2025 - likely acquisition/hardware mix, but the trend is worth monitoring.
m20
SBC intensity
SBC at 8.6% of revenue is meaningful; only offset by heavy buybacks. If repurchase pace ever slows, dilution reasserts.
m15
Insiders one-way sellers
40 sales / 0 buys and $58.7M sold LTM. Mostly option-exercise-and-sell mechanics, not a strong signal, but no insider is stepping in either.
This is a genuinely high-quality business - one of the two toll roads on semiconductor design, growing mid-teens, converting profit to cash at above 100%, running net cash, and quietly shrinking its share count. The margin sag from 30.6% to 28.2% is the only thing that stops me from calling it best-in-class; I want to see whether that reverses as recent acquisitions lap. Insider selling is boilerplate exercise-and-sell, not informative. Ignoring price entirely, this sits firmly in the Fortress tier, closer to the upper end of it.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Segment/product mix disclosure to confirm whether margin compression is hardware (Palladium/Protium) or acquired systems businesses
  • Customer concentration and China exposure given export-control sensitivity in EDA
  • Details of Beta CAE and any other recent acquisitions - goodwill, earn-outs, integration progress
  • Backlog / RPO trajectory to confirm ratable software-revenue durability
  • 10b5-1 plan disclosures behind the routine executive sales to confirm they are pre-scheduled
Valuation / Mispricing
-77
Overvalued
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 126 · conf 7/10
Price $332.82 vs deserved ~$150-200 (generous) or ~$87 (model) - stock is 65-280% above deserved on any honest read. attractive below $180.00

The e2e composite pins fair value at $79.79 and the signal-adjusted number at $86.65, implying roughly -74% downside from $332.82. Even the most generous method here (DCF at $92.79) leaves the stock trading at ~3.6x deserved value, and the anchored-PE ($86.89) and EPV floor ($46.67) both scream that mid-teens growth and ~28% margins do not support a >$90B market cap. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted - but that only firms up the deserved number, it does not close a 74% gap.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Fortress quality supports a premium
Net cash, >100% cash conversion, shrinking share count, and duopoly economics justify a multiple well above the model's FV - just not this multiple.
Rich / priced-in 4
m80
Price is 3.8x composite FV
$332.82 vs $79.79 composite / $86.65 signal-adjusted implies -74% downside; even the friendliest method (DCF $92.79) leaves ~72% air.
m70
Priced for perfection on a mid-teens grower
Multiple implies durable 15%+ growth and margin expansion for many years; any deceleration or the recent margin sag (30.6% to 28.2%) not reversing would compress the multiple hard.
m55
AI-narrative premium already banked
The 'irreplaceable AI chip chokepoint' story is fully in the tape; there is no cheap optionality left on the AI accelerator arms race - you are paying for it.
m40
EPV floor at $46.67 signals no downside cushion
Steady-state earnings power is a fraction of price; if growth normalizes, the fall-back valuation is brutal.
Great business, wrong price. I love the franchise - EDA duopoly, net cash, high earnings quality - but I refuse to pay 3-4x any honest deserved value for it. The AI-chip narrative is fully priced; there is no margin of safety and no cheap optionality. I need this stock materially lower - closer to $180 - before the quality-vs-price math even starts to work. Until then, admire from a distance.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether operating margin recovers from 28.2% as recent acquisitions lap - key input to deserved multiple
  • Forward bookings/backlog growth to test the AI-design tailwind durability
  • Any guidance shift on 2025-26 revenue growth below mid-teens
  • Buyback pace vs SBC to confirm real share-count shrinkage net of dilution
General Sentiment
+50
Tailwind
tail √Σ 115 · head √Σ 61 · conf 7/10

The dominant force on CDNS right now is a strong, durable platform-monopoly narrative: the market treats Cadence as irreplaceable AI-chip-design infrastructure. That story just got fresh oxygen from a Q2 beat, 24.2% revenue growth, an $8.1B record backlog, and a raised full-year outlook. News flow is unambiguously positive and analyst tone is leaning into the AI-demand framing rather than fading it. For a beta-1.15 name, this narrative tailwind is doing more work than the tape. The macro backdrop is a mild crosswind, not a gale: neutral regime, VIX 17, 10y at 4.67% and a market PE of 26 create ambient pressure on high-multiple software, and CDNS trades far above DCF anchors, so it is exposed if the AI-infrastructure trade rotates. The Synopsys drawdown headline is a reminder that this cohort can crack hard on any moat scare - the July 17 Kimi K3 -10% episode already showed how twitchy the tape is around competitive-threat news. Net: strong narrative + strong earnings print + medium cult coefficient outweighs a neutral-to-slightly-hostile macro tape. Direction is up, but the pressure is narrative-dependent, not bulletproof.

Tailwinds 3
m78
Platform-monopoly AI narrative is live and durable
Strong, durable archetype with medium cult - CDNS is framed as the irreplaceable chokepoint in AI chip design. That framing is doing the heavy lifting on the multiple and news flow keeps reinforcing it.
m72
Q2 beat, raised guide, record $8.1B backlog
Fresh print (24.2% revenue growth, guide-up) lands directly into the AI-demand story and gives bulls a clean data point to defend the multiple against skeptics.
m45
Positive news cluster and sector halo
72h news flow is uniformly constructive (Cohu beat, Nvidia $5B AI spend, CDNS 'why it's up today'), reinforcing the AI-infra tape that CDNS rides.
Headwinds 3
m40
Rates and market PE press high-multiple software
10y 4.67% and market PE 26 create ambient de-rating risk for expensive software; CDNS at ~3.8x DCF is squarely in that crosshair if risk appetite fades.
m38
Narrative fragility to competitive-moat scares
The July 17 -10% Kimi K3 reaction and the Synopsys -40% cautionary tale show this cohort snaps on any credible moat challenge - a live tail risk on the sentiment side.
m25
Neutral tape, nascent regime, elevated VIX
Regime is neutral with VIX 17 and S&P -2.3% off highs; not hostile, but with beta 1.15 CDNS still absorbs any risk-off flicker more than a defensive name.
Net pressure on CDNS leans tailwind. The platform-monopoly AI narrative is strong and durable, and a Q2 beat plus record backlog just refueled it - that is the dominant force on this specific name right now, easily outweighing a neutral macro tape. I am not calling it Strong Tailwind because the stock is priced for the story, the regime is only neutral, and the July 17 Kimi K3 episode plus the Synopsys drawdown are live reminders that any moat scare cracks this cohort fast. Direction up, but narrative-dependent.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any follow-through crack in the AI-chip-design moat story (new open-source EDA, hyperscaler in-house tooling news)
  • Sell-side target revisions and consensus tone shift post-Q2 print
  • Whether the AI-infra trade holds or rotates in the next few weeks
  • 10y yield behavior - a move above 4.8-5% would pressure the multiple harder
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -10.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Jul 31, 2026, CDNS was $332.82. We expect it to be $298.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $180.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 31, 2026.

Price when predicted$332.82
Our estimate for Jan 2027$298.00-10.5%
Great value below$180.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06