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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -21 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 10 · Value -46 · Sentiment -86 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Cellebrite DI Ltd.
CLBT NASDAQCellebrite DI Ltd. is an Israeli digital intelligence company headquartered in Petah Tikva, providing advanced solutions for legally sanctioned digital investigations worldwide. Its core offerings include the DI suite, which enables users to access, collect, review, extract, decode, decrypt, analyze, share, and manage digital data across the investigative lifecycle from sources like mobile devices, computers, drones, SIM cards, GPS devices, social media, and cloud platforms. Notable products such as Inseyets facilitate the collection and review of digital evidence, while tools like the Universal Forensic Extraction Device (UFED) support extraction from a wide array of devices, including those with advanced security like Apple T2 chips. Cellebrite DI Ltd. serves law enforcement at federal, state, and local levels, military and intelligence agencies, immigration authorities, prison systems, and enterprise customers tackling cases involving child exploitation, homicide, terrorism, organized crime, human trafficking, corporate security, cryptocurrency investigations, and intellectual property theft. The company also delivers analytics, training, and services to enhance efficiency in public safety and private sector operations, positioning it as a leader in digital forensics and investigative technologies.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
Cellebrite DI Ltd. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.
This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 5 annual reports, the latest filed 2026-03-03, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.31
Total Equity: $484.32M
Shares: 249,903,126
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $124.46M
EBITDA: $78.35M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $124.46M
Revenue: $475.68M
Revenue: $475.68M
Revenue: $475.68M
Total Equity: $484.32M
Tax Rate: 13.6%
Equity: $484.32M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $124.46M
Current Liabilities: $369.66M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $484.32M
Shares: 249,903,126
Shares: 249,903,126
CapEx: -$13.23M
Shares: 249,903,126
Stock Price: $11.14
Net Income: $78.33M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:12am (8d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $246.2M | $270.7M | $325.1M | $401.2M | $475.7M |
| Cost of Revenue | $42.6M | $50.7M | $53.2M | $62.6M | $75.2M |
| Gross Profit | $203.7M | $219.9M | $271.9M | $338.6M | $400.5M |
| Operating Expenses | $189.9M | $218.9M | $238.6M | $281.7M | $334.0M |
| Operating Income | $13.8M | $1.0M | $33.2M | $56.9M | $66.5M |
| Net Income | $71.4M | $120.8M | -$81.1M | -$283.0M | $78.3M |
| EBITDA | $20.8M | $10.2M | $43.2M | $67.5M | $78.3M |
| EPS | $0.49 | $0.64 | $-0.43 | $-1.35 | $0.32 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.44 | $0.59 | $-0.43 | $-1.35 | $0.31 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:12am (8d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | $87.6M | $189.5M | $191.7M | $124.5M |
| Total Current Assets | $273.2M | $295.9M | $422.1M | $567.6M | $575.9M |
| Total Assets | $339.8M | $403.3M | $532.9M | $690.6M | $938.9M |
| Current Liabilities | $186.6M | $207.8M | $253.8M | $295.5M | $369.7M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $413.1M | $329.4M | $498.7M | $354.5M | $454.5M |
| Total Equity | -$73.3M | $73.9M | $34.2M | $336.0M | $484.3M |
| Retained Earnings | $78.4M | $199.2M | $118.1M | -$164.9M | -$86.5M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:12am (8d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $36.1M | $20.6M | $102.1M | $132.2M | $173.5M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$5.1M | -$6.9M | -$5.2M | -$8.6M | -$13.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $30.9M | $13.7M | $96.8M | $123.6M | $160.3M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$20.0M | $0 | $0 | -$2.7M | -$147.5M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$100.0M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:12am (8d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +9.9% | +20.1% | +23.4% | +18.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +8.0% | +23.6% | +24.5% | +18.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | -92.4% | +3,083.6% | +71.2% | +16.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +69.2% | -167.1% | -249.0% | +127.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | -50.8% | +322.4% | +56.1% | +16.0% |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-15Every case now carries terabytes of chat, image, video and cloud data that no human examiner can triage; AI-driven review (Pathfinder/Insights-type analytics, cross-case correlation, media summarization) turns an unfundable manual task into a licensable product, and Cellebrite already owns the agency relationship and the ingest point.
AI-assisted code auditing, fuzzing and memory-safety enforcement at Apple, Google and app developers can shorten exploit lifetimes and raise the cost of each new access method — the bear 'encryption hardens' thesis running faster, hitting the one asset that makes Cellebrite unique rather than merely good.
Whether the extraction franchise stays broadly capable on current-generation flagship devices while analytics ARR compounds — observable in premium/Inseyets attach, ARR per agency, and any disclosed gaps in support for the newest OS versions.
Offensive vulnerability research talent, the decoder library covering tens of thousands of app/OS version permutations, court-tested chain-of-custody and expert-witness defensibility, and export-controlled government procurement channels.
AI Lens thesis
Cellebrite's job is to make locked digital devices produce court-admissible truth; AI does not touch the physical/cryptographic access problem, but it massively inflates the volume of data an agency must interpret after access — so cheap intelligence shifts value from extraction (flat, exploit-gated) to review and correlation (expanding, and where Cellebrite can raise price per agency without adding seats). Internally, AI can compress the largest cost line, generating and maintaining app decoders and parsers, against 84% gross margin and only 14% operating margin — a wide gap that converts to profit if pricing holds. The threats are asymmetric and specific: AI-hardened platform software shrinking the exploit window, and general-purpose AI eDiscovery/analytics vendors attacking the review layer where the moat is engineering, not exploitation.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside AI-generated media makes authentication a first-class forensic requirement — deepfake and synthetic-evidence validation is a new, court-mandated line item that flows to whoever already sits in the evidence chain of custody.
Downside Legal and privacy constraints prevent training models on customer case evidence, so Cellebrite's most valuable corpus is largely off-limits — its AI advantage rests on decoder engineering, which a well-funded competitor with frontier models can narrow faster than the market assumes.
Outcome range spread 51 · unresolved
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:26The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw tape: Cellebrite compounded revenue from $246M (2021) to $476M (2025) — a 17.9% CAGR, accelerating to 18.6% YoY in the latest print, with gross margin fortress-like at 84.2%. FCF went from something modest to $160M on $476M revenue — a 33.7% FCF margin, and capex is trivial at $13M. Zero debt, $124M cash. That is a genuinely high-quality software P&L, and at $2.78B market cap it trades at ~17x FCF and ~5.4x EV/sales. The 2022 NI of $121M vs op income of only $1M, and the 2024 NI of -$283M vs op income of +$57M, both scream warrant/SBC/tax noise — GAAP NI here is nearly meaningless. Use FCF, and FCF is clean and growing 29% CAGR. That is not a "mature earner" — the classifier's 0.48 confidence is telling you it doesn't fit.
Where I part ways with the synthesis: a DCF that anchors fair value at $8.96 and then "signal-adjusts" to exactly the current $11.14 is the model refusing to commit. At 17x FCF for a business growing top line ~19% with 84% gross margins, zero debt, and a defensible government-installed base, the composite is undershooting. A more honest bracket: 20-22x $160M FCF = $3.2-3.5B EV, or ~$13-14/share, before crediting any FCF growth. If you believe the 28.7% FCF CAGR persists even at half-speed for two years, you're looking at $200M+ FCF into 2027 and a fair value in the mid-teens. The pre-flight comment that the market prices this as having "limited growth visibility" is doing the heavy lifting for why it's cheap — but 18.6% recent YoY isn't limited visibility, it's just unloved.
The contrarian case is real and the market-forces model is right to flag it, but I think it overweights the tail. Encryption arms race: Cellebrite has been fighting this since the iPhone 5c and revenue has quadrupled. Customer concentration in governments is a feature during budget expansion cycles and a bug during austerity — US federal law enforcement budgets are not contracting in the current political environment. The controversial ESG footprint caps the multiple (this will never trade at Palantir's 20x sales) but also explains why quality growth is available at 5x sales. Insider selling is the one thing I'd genuinely watch: 160K+ shares sold across July 2026 with only award-driven buys is not neutral, it's mild distribution — but on a $2.78B cap it's noise unless it accelerates. The 423K share award on 5/12 also inflates the "insider activity" optics.
Data quality caveats: quarterly revenue isn't shown, so I can't verify whether the 18.6% YoY is decelerating within the year or holding — this matters a lot for the thesis. The 2026-dated insider transactions suggest this file is forward-dated or mislabeled; treat with mild skepticism. GAAP net income is unusable given the swings, so PE of 35.9 is a red herring — the real multiple is EV/FCF ~16-17x, which is cheap for this growth-and-margin profile. I dissent from the synthesis "slight_upside → fair value $11.14" conclusion: the fair value is meaningfully above spot, not at spot. The market-forces "neutral" is a reasonable hedge but leans too hard on binary regulatory risk that hasn't materialized in a decade of headlines. The narrative layer calling this "quiet-quality, anchored" is actually the most accurate framing in the packet — but quiet-quality at 17x FCF with 19% growth is not fairly valued, it's mispriced by the tape's boredom.
Net: I'd own this in the $10-12 zone with fair value $14-15 on a 2026 FCF basis, higher if government cyber budgets stay expansionary. The risk isn't fundamentals — it's multiple stagnation because nobody wants to hold a surveillance-tech name on their book. That's a reason for the discount, not a reason for the discount to persist forever. Position sizing should reflect the binary regulatory tail (encryption legislation, EU restrictions) — call it a 2-3% starter, not a core holding.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that this is not a “mature earner” in the sleepy sense; it is a high-margin niche software business that has compounded revenue from $246.2M in 2021 to $475.7M in 2025, a 18%+ annualized clip, while expanding operating income from $13.8M to $66.5M. Gross margin at 84.2% is genuine software economics, and the latest year’s 14.0% operating margin still looks under-monetized relative to that gross profile. More important, the cash flow is far stronger than the accounting optics suggest: $173.5M of operating cash flow and $160.3M of free cash flow on $475.7M of revenue is a 33.6% OCF margin and 33.7% conversion of net income into free cash after modest $13.2M capex. On a $2.78B market cap, that is a 5.8% FCF yield for a company still growing revenue 18.6% year over year, with no debt and $124.5M of cash. That combination is rare enough that I think the stock is being valued too much like a government contractor and not enough like a vertical software asset.
The biggest accounting distortion is obvious in the income statement history. Net income was -$81.1M in 2023 and -$283.0M in 2024, then +$78.3M in 2025, while operating income stayed positive and improving through the whole stretch: $33.2M, $56.9M, then $66.5M. That tells me the reported net losses are overwhelmingly below-the-line noise, not core deterioration. The market often anchors to those headline losses and the elevated 35.9x P/E, but P/E is the wrong lens when earnings were recently distorted and free cash flow is already $160M. On an enterprise basis, EV/revenue of 5.4x and EV/EBITDA of 32.8x are not optically cheap, yet those multiples look much more reasonable if the company can push operating margins from 14% toward even the low-20s, which its 84% gross margin and likely sticky customer base should allow over time. If Cellebrite can grow into $550M-$600M of revenue over the next couple of years and sustain anything like current cash conversion, today’s $11.14 looks more like a base than a peak.
I also think the market is over-penalizing the business for category discomfort. This is surveillance-adjacent law-enforcement software, so it will never get a glamour multiple, but that discomfort also creates durability. Mission-critical tools sold into public-sector workflows tend to be sticky, budgeted, and renewal-friendly. The balance sheet reinforces that this is not a fragile story: zero debt, $484.3M of equity, current ratio 1.56, and mid-teens ROE/ROIC around 16%. Those are the markers of a company with real underlying quality. At roughly 5.9x sales, the stock is not bargain-bin cheap, but for a debt-free software company with 84% gross margin, 19% recent top-line growth, and a near-6% FCF yield, I think the market is still underwriting too much stagnation and too little operating leverage. My bias is that fair value is comfortably above the current quote, more in the $14-$16 range if execution simply remains solid.
The best case against that view is that the market may be correctly treating 2025 cash flow as peak-ish or flattered. $173.5M of operating cash flow against only $78.3M of net income is a very large gap, and without more detail the prudent concern is working-capital timing, deferred revenue, or other transitory items rather than fully recurring cash economics. The 2024 net loss of $283.0M is also too large to casually wave away; if stock comp, remeasurement charges, or litigation-type items are structurally part of the business, then “adjust through it” can become a permanent analyst habit that overstates true earnings power. Valuation is also not forgiving if growth slows. At 5.4x EV/revenue and 32.8x EV/EBITDA, this is not a hated asset. If revenue growth drops from 18.6% into low teens or single digits while operating margin stalls around 14%, the stock can absolutely deserve to sit around $11 or lower. And the insider tape is not a positive tell: the recent pattern is overwhelmingly sales, even if some are routine.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next year shows revenue growth decelerating below 12% while free cash flow falls materially from $160.3M or proves to have been working-capital-driven, then the “cheap quality compounder” case breaks and I would move to fair value at best. Likewise, if operating margin cannot progress from the current 13.98% despite 84.2% gross margin, that would imply the business is less scalable than it appears. On the other hand, if the company prints another year of high-teens revenue growth with FCF above $150M and operating income moves toward $80M-$90M, the stock should not remain at 5.8% FCF yield and roughly 5.9x sales for long.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a high-quality niche software franchise that has finally converted top-line consistency into clean cash generation. Revenue compounded from $246M in 2021 to $476M in 2025 at roughly 21% CAGR, with the latest year still delivering 18.6% growth; gross margin held at 84% while operating income scaled from essentially break-even ($1M in 2022) to $66.5M. Free cash flow of $160M on that base—an FCF margin near 34% and a cash conversion that dwarfs reported net income—plus a debt-free balance sheet with $125M cash is the real story. The earlier net-income chaos (–$81M, –$283M) looks like SPAC/warrant noise rather than operating decay; 2025’s $78M profit and 16% ROE/ROIC finally align the P&L with the cash-flow engine. At $11.14 and a $2.78B market cap the stock trades at 5.4× EV/revenue and ~5.8% FCF yield—respectable, not distressed.
Where the quantitative labels feel soft is the “mature earner / slight upside / fair at $11.14” package. A business still growing high-teens with expanding operating leverage and fortress liquidity is not fully mature, and the composite fair-value path that started at $8.96 before being signal-adjusted back to the current print suggests the models are anchoring to trailing multiples rather than the FCF trajectory. EV/EBITDA of 33× and a 36× P/E are full for government-adjacent software, yet they are paid for by 84% gross margins, zero leverage, and mission-critical stickiness that ordinary SaaS names do not enjoy. Insider sales in 2026 are real but clustered around an award of 424k shares; they do not reverse the fundamental improvement.
The strongest contrary case is straightforward: you are paying a growth-software multiple for a vendor whose ultimate customer is the public sector, whose addressable device surface is under permanent encryption attack, and whose political optics can turn procurement cycles binary overnight. A smart opponent would note that revenue growth has already decelerated from the mid-20s toward high-teens, that net margins only just turned sustainably positive, and that the valuation synthesis itself found zero edge at $11.14 after adjustment. If government budgets tighten or a major platform locks Cellebrite out for a generation of devices, both the 21% revenue CAGR and the 34% FCF margin compress quickly—and there is no consumer or commercial offset. I weigh that risk as real but already discounted in the absence of any narrative premium; the cash flow is too clean and the balance sheet too empty of debt to treat the stock as a value trap today.
What would flip the view is concrete: two more quarters of sub-12% revenue growth, FCF margin falling below 25%, or a material guidance cut tied to lost agency renewals would push me firmly to overvalued. Conversely, a re-acceleration above 20% with operating margin expanding through the high teens would justify a re-rating toward $14–15 and a clear undervalued call.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Cellebrite is a mature, self-funding software business: revenue compounded from $246M in 2021 to $476M in 2025 (roughly 18% CAGR), gross margins are stable at 82-84%, and operating margin has climbed from ~0% in 2022 to ~14% in 2024-2025. FCF has scaled from $31M to $160M with $276M net cash and no debt, and Altman Z of 4.54 confirms a safe balance sheet. Beneish M of -2.15 and negative accruals (-13.9% of assets) do not flag manipulation, and the low OCF/NI ratio this year is distorted by prior-year GAAP losses driven by SBC/warrant items rather than a cash problem. The glaring blemish is dilution. Diluted share count went from 161.5M (2021) to 249.9M (2025) - a ~55% increase, or ~11.5% CAGR - with SBC running 9.4% of revenue and zero buyback offset. The 2024 GAAP net loss of -$283M despite $124M FCF strongly implies large non-cash equity/warrant-related charges, consistent with an SBC-heavy compensation model. Insiders sold ~$2.6M over the last year with zero open-market buys, and the most recent tape shows continued small sales plus a 423.6K share award to Ramji - a compensation pattern, not conviction buying. Net: a healthy, growing, cash-generative franchise whose per-share economics are being taxed heavily by equity issuance. Business quality is clearly above average; per-share value creation is not.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Composition of the 2024 -$283M net loss - how much was warrant remeasurement vs SBC vs impairment
- Whether a buyback authorization exists to offset SBC-driven dilution going forward
- Customer and geographic concentration disclosures (law enforcement agency mix, export-restricted regions)
- Deferred revenue and RPO trend to confirm the growth is booked business, not shipped one-time licenses
- Terms of any remaining SPAC-era warrants or earnout shares that could further inflate the diluted count
The composite fair value lands at $8.96 and the signal-adjusted FV at $11.14 - literally the current price. The DCF prints $11.93 (~7% upside) while the EPV floor at $2.22 is a runaway low that assumes no growth and should be treated as a stress marker, not a valuation. The anchored P/E of $9.76 says the market is already paying a modest premium to a normalized earnings anchor. Net: the price roughly matches deserved value, maybe a hair rich once you haircut for dilution. The quality lens confirms a genuinely good software business, which supports the deserved value near current levels - but that same lens flags an 11.5% diluted share CAGR with zero buybacks, meaning per-share value is leaking each year. That drag argues against paying above the composite FV. There is no discount to underwrite here; you are paying full freight for a solid but politically-exposed government-forensics franchise where the bull case (mission-critical, sticky) is already reflected and the bear case (encryption headwinds, niche TAM) is not.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Diluted share count trajectory and any buyback authorization in the next 10-Q
- SBC as a % of revenue and warrant overhang schedule
- ARR growth and net retention on the software subscription line
- Segment disclosure on Premium (device unlock) vs analytics revenue mix and durability against modern iOS/Android encryption
The non-fundamental pressure on CLBT is decisively negative right now. Yesterday's Q2 miss, a full-year revenue guide-down, elongated sales cycles, and a simultaneous CEO transition combined into a textbook confidence break: the stock printed a fresh 52-week low on a 29.5% single-day drop, and a securities-litigation firm has already opened an investigation. The prior 'quiet-quality, mission-critical gov-tech' story has been replaced overnight by a 'broken execution, AI-procurement disruption, leadership vacuum' framing. Intensity of the negative narrative is high and durability is at least a quarter or two until the new CEO sets a bar and the next print either confirms or rebuts the deceleration.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether next quarter's ARR reaccelerates or confirms the deceleration is structural
- New CEO Ramji's first strategic communication and any reset of medium-term targets
- Sell-side price target and rating revisions over the next two weeks
- Any follow-through selling versus a base-building pattern near the $11 level
- Progression of the shareholder litigation and any 8-K style disclosures
Cellebrite's job is to make locked digital devices produce court-admissible truth; AI does not touch the physical/cryptographic access problem, but it massively inflates the volume of data an agency must interpret after access — so cheap intelligence shifts value from extraction (flat, exploit-gated) to review and correlation (expanding, and where Cellebrite can raise price per agency without adding seats). Internally, AI can compress the largest cost line, generating and maintaining app decoders and parsers, against 84% gross margin and only 14% operating margin — a wide gap that converts to profit if pricing holds. The threats are asymmetric and specific: AI-hardened platform software shrinking the exploit window, and general-purpose AI eDiscovery/analytics vendors attacking the review layer where the moat is engineering, not exploitation.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- case backlog statistics cited by agencies
- government digital-forensics budget lines
- new evidence-handling mandates or standards
- vulnerability-research headcount retention
- new hardened-device support announcements
- export-license and regulatory posture
- cloud/warrant-return revenue mix
- frontline vs lab-examiner deployments
The world is generating digital evidence faster than institutions can process it, and that is a demand curve independent of GDP: encrypted messaging, cloud accounts and device proliferation mean case backlogs grow structurally, and agencies buy tooling because manual review does not scale. Against that, two forces push back — device makers keep hardening security, turning Cellebrite's access franchise into a perpetual R&D treadmill, and public-sector budgets face a tighter fiscal backdrop with long rates near 4.6%. Net: a growing, defensible niche with a hard technical dependency rather than an open-ended platform. The bull case overstates monopoly permanence; the bear case that the addressable market is shrinking is contradicted by the measured data — 18.6% growth against 11.1% industry growth is not a legacy business dying.