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STALE Analysis Report
May 7, 2026
62 days ago · 100% complete
Re-run recommended — fundamentals and price action have likely diverged from this snapshot.

Commvault Systems, Inc.

CVLT NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
Tinton Falls, NJ 07724, United States IPO 2006 commvault.com Updated Jul 8, 7:22pm
Price
$146.92
Market Cap
$6.1B
Employees
3,200
Beta
0.79
Avg Volume
955,073
CEO
Sanjay Mirchandani

Commvault Systems, Inc. provides a cyber resilience platform for protecting and recovering data and cloud-native applications in the Americas and internationally. The company offers Operational Recovery, which provides backup, verifiable recovery, and cost-optimized cloud workload mobility to ensure data availability and granular recovery; autonomous recovery for automated disaster and cyber recovery use cases to deliver backup, replication, and disaster recovery for all workloads on-premises, in the cloud, across various clouds, and in hybrid environments; and Cyber Recovery for threat scanning to hunt for threats within backup data, cyber deception, and threat detection to provide early warning of attacks. It also provides Commvault Cloud’s Cleanroom Recovery for organizations to be ready to recover by providing a clean, isolated, and on-demand recovery location in the cloud, as well as the ability to test their incident response plans and recover; and Commvault HyperScale X, an intuitive, easy-to-deploy and scale-out, and integrated data protection solution to support enterprises' transformations, such as legacy scale-up infrastructures, hybrid cloud, container, and virtualized environments. In addition, the company offers Commvault Cloud Air Gap Protect, an integrated air-gapped cloud storage target that enables IT organizations to adopt cloud storage to ease digital transformation, reduce risks, and scale; and Commvault's Compliance, which provides built-in reporting, auditing, and logging to help ensure data is not modified or deleted for legal and compliance purposes. Further, it provides Commvault Cloud Rewind to restore an organization’s cloud application and data environment; and Commvault’s Clumio Backtrack to revert objects and datasets stored in Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3), as well as professional and customer support services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.

Runs with full report Generated: May 7, 2026 5:20pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:22pm (just now)
Current data · timestamped when a report runs
$146.92
Change · Jul 8
-6.80 (-4.42%)
Day Range
$145.81 – $154.83
52-Week Range
$71.75 – $200.68
50-Day MA
$117.17
200-Day MA
$118.84
Volume
758,580.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $100.00
Consensus $142.15
High $185.00
(42 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 41,421,689.00
Float 40,722,619.00
Free Float 98.3%
High free float — 98.3% of shares trade freely, ~1.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:22pm (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:54pm (6d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: May 7, 2026 5:19pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
89.51
Stock Price: $146.92
EPS (Diluted): 1.61
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
457.07
Stock Price: $146.92
Total Equity: $7.49M
Shares: 44,654,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
57.39
Market Cap: $6.09B
Total Debt: $887.83M
Cash: $899.99M
EBITDA: $106.27M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$3.4B
Market Cap: $6.09B
Total Debt: $887.83M
Cash: $899.99M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
80.3%
Gross Profit: $950.22M
Revenue: $1.18B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
8.9%
Operating Income: $105.60M
Revenue: $1.18B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
6.0%
Net Income: $70.66M
Revenue: $1.18B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
35.4%
Net Income: $70.66M
Total Equity: $7.49M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
5.7%
Operating Income: $105.60M
Tax Rate: 23.3%
Equity: $7.49M
Total Debt: $887.83M
Cash: $899.99M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.95
Current Assets: $1.29B
Current Liabilities: $658.17M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
118.47
Short-Term Debt: $6.96M
Long-Term Debt: $880.86M
Total Debt: $887.83M
Total Equity: $7.49M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$26.51
Revenue: $1.18B
Shares: 44,654,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$0.17
Total Equity: $7.49M
Shares: 44,654,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.31
Operating CF: $244.68M
CapEx: -$7.53M
Shares: 44,654,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $146.92
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $70.66M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: May 7, 2026 5:19pm
Compares CVLT against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: May 7, 2026 5:23:26 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:54pm (6d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $769.6M $784.6M $839.2M $995.6M $1.2B
Cost of Revenue $113.9M $135.4M $151.6M $179.0M $233.5M
Gross Profit $655.7M $649.2M $687.6M $816.6M $950.2M
Operating Expenses $614.2M $665.1M $612.3M $742.8M $844.6M
Operating Income $41.6M -$15.9M $75.4M $73.7M $105.6M
Net Income $33.6M -$35.8M $168.9M $76.1M $70.7M
EBITDA $54.5M -$4.6M $90.6M $90.7M $106.3M
EPS $0.74 $-0.80 $3.85 $1.74 $1.61
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:54pm (6d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $267.5M $287.8M $312.8M $302.1M $900.0M
Total Current Assets $484.1M $550.9M $595.1M $635.1M $1.3B
Total Assets $827.9M $792.6M $943.9M $1.1B $1.9B
Current Liabilities $394.1M $410.1M $484.9M $555.1M $658.2M
Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $880.9M
Total Liabilities $572.1M $606.5M $665.8M $793.1M $1.9B
Total Equity $255.8M $186.1M $278.1M $325.1M $7.5M
Retained Earnings -$898.7M -$1.1B -$1.1B -$1.1B -$1.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:54pm (6d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $177.2M $170.3M $203.8M $207.4M $244.7M
Capital Expenditure -$3.9M -$3.2M -$4.1M -$3.8M -$7.5M
Free Cash Flow $173.3M $167.0M $199.7M $203.6M $237.2M
Acquisitions (net) -$16.9M $0 $0 -$65.3M -$25.8M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$305.2M -$150.9M -$184.0M -$165.0M -$446.1M
Net Change in Cash -$129.7M $20.3M $25.0M -$10.7M $597.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:22pm (just now)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $1.2B
$1.2B – $1.2B
$1.3B
$1.3B – $1.3B
$1.5B
$1.4B – $1.5B
$1.6B
$1.6B – $1.7B
EBITDA $83.4M
$81.8M – $84.7M
$92.3M
$91.6M – $93.0M
$103.1M
$100.3M – $105.2M
$116.3M
$114.1M – $118.2M
Net Income $187.2M
$185.0M – $189.5M
$233.3M
$225.6M – $241.0M
$278.7M
$255.3M – $302.1M
$350.0M
$341.9M – $358.1M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:54pm (6d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +1.9% +7.0% +18.6% +18.9%
Gross Profit Growth -1.0% +5.9% +18.8% +16.4%
Operating Income Growth -138.2% +574.4% -2.1% +43.2%
Net Income Growth -206.4% +572.1% -54.9% -7.2%
EBITDA Growth -108.4% +2,082.9% +0.1% +17.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-07-02 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole S-Sale 254.00 $150.00 $38,100
2026-06-25 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole A-Award 244.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Mirchandani Sanjay G-Gift 40,734.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-11 Mirchandani Sanjay G-Gift 40,734.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole A-Award 328.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole S-Sale 101.00 $107.39 $10,846
2026-05-26 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole S-Sale 277.00 $106.70 $29,556
2026-05-21 Merrill Gary A-Award 2,952.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Merrill Gary A-Award 5,647.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Merrill Gary S-Sale 3,777.00 $107.39 $405,616
2026-05-26 Merrill Gary S-Sale 4,554.00 $106.70 $485,912
2026-05-21 Mirchandani Sanjay A-Award 8,200.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Mirchandani Sanjay A-Award 17,118.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Mirchandani Sanjay S-Sale 9,701.00 $107.39 $1.0M
2026-05-19 Merrill Gary S-Sale 2,285.00 $106.19 $242,644
2026-05-19 Merrill Gary S-Sale 2,275.00 $104.01 $236,623
2026-05-19 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole S-Sale 896.00 $106.19 $95,146
2026-05-19 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole S-Sale 169.00 $104.01 $17,578
2026-05-20 Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole S-Sale 365.00 $99.13 $36,182
2026-05-19 Mirchandani Sanjay S-Sale 13,158.00 $106.19 $1.4M
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CVLT — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-05-07 17:23:57
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly rich at $103 — FCF supports $120-140 but margin compression and decelerating quarterly revenue argue for waiting on the next print before committing; no edge above $110, starter interest below $90.

The raw print tells a more ambiguous story than the synthesis admits. Revenue grew from $769M (FY22) to $1.18B (FY26) — a real 18.8% CAGR — and FY26 FCF of $237M on $1.18B revenue (20% FCF margin) is genuinely high-quality. But look at the quarterly cadence: revenue went $262.6 → $275.0 → $282.0 → $276.2 → $313.8 → $311.7M. That's a sequential *decline* in the most recent quarter and only ~3% sequential over two quarters from Q1 to Q4 of the latest fiscal cycle. Net margin compressed from 11.3% (Mar-25) to 4.7% (Mar-26) — a 660 bps deterioration in twelve months while revenue grew only 13% YoY in that same final quarter, well below the 18.9% TTM headline. The "decelerating" tag in revenue confidence is real and the synthesis underweights it.

The pre-flight model's framing as a "transitioning SaaS platform" is the right lens, but the synthesis's "Reasonable Premium" verdict and the market-forces "value trap" verdict directly contradict each other and neither bothers to reconcile. I lean toward market-forces being closer to right on the trajectory but wrong on severity. EV/EBITDA of 39x and P/E of 63x are not "middle-of-the-road enterprise software" — they're full-fat SaaS multiples on a company whose operating margin is 8.9% and whose earnings CAGR is *negative 35%*. The synthesis's "10.4% implied growth is conservative" framing assumes margins recover; if margins stay at the trailing 6% net level, the implied growth needed to justify $103 is materially higher. The P/B of 457 (anomaly-flagged) signals near-zero tangible book — fine for SaaS, but it means the $900M cash cushion is doing a lot of the downside-protection work, and there's no debt figure disclosed, which is a real data gap.

A careful contrarian would note three things the bulls aren't pricing. First, the data protection space is genuinely under attack — Rubrik (now public, growing 40%+), Cohesity-Veritas merger, and the hyperscaler-native backup tools are all real, and Commvault's 18.9% growth in this environment is respectable but not category-leading. Second, insider activity is one-directional sells (six S-sales in Feb-Mar 2026) followed by April awards — that's not a "vote of confidence," that's executives taking liquidity at $100+ before reloading on grants at the company's expense. Third, the FY24 net income of $168.9M looks like it contained a tax or one-time benefit (op income was only $75.4M that year) — meaning the earnings CAGR comparison is distorted and the underlying earnings power is more like $70-100M, putting normalized P/E closer to 50-65x. That's expensive for a 13% recent-quarter grower with margin compression.

I dissent from "Reasonable Premium" and lean closer to market-forces' caution, though "value trap" is too harsh given $237M FCF and $900M cash (~20% of market cap). Fair value on 25-30x FCF (appropriate for a mid-teens grower with SaaS transition risk) is $5.9-7.1B, or roughly $135-160/share — which would actually argue CVLT is *undervalued* if you trust the FCF. But on EV/EBITDA normalization to 20-25x (peer median for decelerating SaaS), you get $75-95/share. The split between these two anchors — FCF-rich but earnings-poor — is the entire debate, and it resolves on whether the Q1 FY27 print stabilizes margins above 6% net. The decelerating quarterly sequence and insider selling tilt me bearish on near-term execution; the FCF and cash cushion prevent outright shorting. Wait for the next print.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-05-07 17:24:03
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — fairly valued at $103, but I lean slightly more optimistic on downside protection due to the cash cushion, seeing fair value closer to $110 with a watchful eye on margin stabilization.

Commvault Systems, Inc. presents an intriguing financial narrative underscored by its transition from legacy enterprise software to a SaaS platform. My independent analysis of the raw data highlights a company that has achieved significant revenue growth over the past few years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.8% from 2022 to 2026, culminating in revenue of $1.18 billion. However, the profitability story is less compelling. The net income for FY26 stands at $70.7 million, down from $168.9 million in FY24, indicating substantial margin compression. Despite a strong free cash flow (FCF) margin of 20%, the sequential quarterly revenue growth appears anemic, with slight declines in the most recent quarters, suggesting potential deceleration in revenue trajectory.

I find myself in agreement with Opus's assessment that Commvault is fairly valued to slightly rich at its current price of $103. Opus rightly points out the sequential revenue decline and margin compression as significant concerns, which I concur with. The 660 basis points drop in net margin over a year is particularly alarming and not sufficiently mitigated by the overall revenue growth or the appealing FCF. The P/E ratio of 63x and EV/EBITDA of 39x are indeed reflective of high valuations typically seen in robust SaaS companies, yet Commvault's declining earnings and margins do not align with such multiples, as Opus notes.

Where I diverge from Opus is in the interpretation of market forces and the insider trading context. Opus suggests that the market forces signal a potential value trap, but I would argue that the $900 million cash reserve and lack of debt provide a cushion that mitigates some downside risk. Additionally, while insider selling could indicate a lack of confidence, it is not uncommon for executives to liquidate shares for a variety of personal reasons, and the subsequent awards in April could imply a strategic realignment rather than purely negative sentiment.

A careful skeptic might argue that both analyses overemphasize recent deceleration without sufficiently considering the strategic long-term benefits of the SaaS transition. They might point to the robust cash flow and cash reserves as indicators of potential resiliency and argue that the high valuations are justified by the company's strategic pivot and potential for future margin recovery. Such a view would suggest a more optimistic outlook, pending evidence of stabilization or improvement in upcoming financial results.

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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.392 · 5bda1781 · 2026-07-08 16:12:24