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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -36 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -12 · Value -56 · Sentiment 19 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $112.55 vs $124.85 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Duke Energy Corporation
DUK NYSEDuke Energy Corporation is a large American energy holding company that focuses on regulated electric power and natural gas distribution. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, it operates today primarily through electric utilities and infrastructure and gas utilities and infrastructure segments, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers across several states in the Southeast and Midwest. The company’s electric operations encompass generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity, using a diversified mix of coal, nuclear, natural gas, oil, and renewable energy resources. Its natural gas business transports and distributes gas to customers in the Carolinas, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and neighboring regions. Duke Energy Corporation also provides related energy services, including power delivery, smart grid solutions, and utility-scale wind and solar assets through commercial renewables. As a major regulated utility, it plays a central role in providing essential energy infrastructure and services that support households, businesses, and broader economic activity in its service territories.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.31
Total Equity: $53.02B
Shares: 777,000,000
Total Debt: $87.21B
Cash: $245.00M
EBITDA: $16.33B
Total Debt: $87.21B
Cash: $245.00M
Revenue: $31.74B
Revenue: $31.74B
Revenue: $31.74B
Total Equity: $53.02B
Tax Rate: 11.2%
Equity: $53.02B
Total Debt: $87.21B
Cash: $245.00M
Current Liabilities: $21.05B
Long-Term Debt: $80.11B
Total Debt: $87.21B
Total Equity: $53.02B
Shares: 777,000,000
Shares: 777,000,000
CapEx: -$14.02B
Shares: 777,000,000
Stock Price: $124.85
Net Income: $4.97B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:41am (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.7B | $28.7B | $28.7B | $30.1B | $31.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | $5.4B | $6.0B | $7.1B | $7.9B | $8.6B |
| Net Income | $3.9B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $4.5B | $5.0B |
| EBITDA | $11.0B | $11.9B | $13.2B | $14.3B | $16.3B |
| EPS | $4.94 | $3.17 | $3.54 | $5.71 | $6.31 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.94 | $3.17 | $3.54 | $5.71 | $6.31 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:36am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $343.0M | $409.0M | $253.0M | $314.0M | $245.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $9.9B | $13.2B | $12.8B | $13.0B | $11.6B |
| Total Assets | $169.6B | $178.1B | $176.9B | $186.3B | $195.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $15.9B | $18.9B | $17.3B | $19.4B | $21.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $60.4B | $67.1B | $72.5B | $76.3B | $80.1B |
| Total Liabilities | $118.5B | $126.2B | $126.7B | $135.1B | $142.7B |
| Total Equity | $51.1B | $51.9B | $50.2B | $51.3B | $53.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.3B | $2.6B | $2.2B | $3.4B | $5.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:36am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $8.3B | $5.9B | $9.9B | $12.3B | $12.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$9.7B | -$11.4B | -$12.6B | -$12.3B | -$14.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.4B | -$5.4B | -$2.7B | $48.0M | -$1.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $3.8B | $7.5B | $5.3B | $5.6B | $6.2B |
| Dividends Paid | -$3.1B | -$3.2B | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$36.0M | $83.0M | -$246.0M | $64.0M | -$58.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:41am (14d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +16.1% | 0.0% | +4.8% | +5.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +11.9% | +17.6% | +12.1% | +8.8% |
| Net Income Growth | -34.7% | +11.4% | +59.2% | +9.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | +7.4% | +11.0% | +9.1% | +13.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:36am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-14 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-16 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-16 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-17 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-11 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-16 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-17 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-11 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-12 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-17 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-10 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-12 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:08The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: Duke is doing what regulated utilities do — TTM revenue of roughly $32.7B (summing the last four quarters) versus $30.6B in the prior four, so ~7% top-line growth, and net income of $5.13B vs $4.37B, ~17% earnings growth. That's better than the 5-year revenue CAGR of 5.2%, consistent with rate case wins and Carolinas/Florida load growth (data centers are the whispered driver). Operating margin at 27.2% is healthy for the sector. But the balance sheet is the story nobody wants to look at: $87.2B of debt against $245M of cash and $53B of equity — debt/equity 1.64x, current ratio 0.55x, and free cash flow of *negative* $1.69B because capex of $14B swallowed the $12.3B in operating cash. This is a company funding its dividend and its grid buildout with debt issuance, full stop.
The synthesis verdict ($108.94 DCF, $114.17 signal-adjusted, ~9% overvalued) is directionally right but I think understates the case modestly. At 19.8x earnings, DUK trades at a ~15-25% premium to the regulated utility peer band (SO, AEP, D typically 16-18x). The pre-flight commentary that this reflects "data center exposure" is the actual market thesis worth pressure-testing — Carolinas load growth from hyperscaler siting is real, and if that translates into constructive rate treatment and above-authorized ROE, then 19.8x is defensible. But ROE is currently 9.37% and ROIC just 5.47% — the latter is barely above cost of debt in a 5%+ rate environment, which is the actual quiet problem. You're paying a growth premium for a business earning sub-cost-of-capital returns on invested capital.
The contrarian case cuts both ways here. Bull contrarian: every utility looks levered because that's the model — regulators allow debt in the cap structure and reimburse interest through rates; the "high debt risk" flag in the synthesis is somewhat generic. If AI-driven power demand is structural (and I think it partly is), Duke's Carolinas footprint is arguably the best-positioned in the country, and rate base growth of 7-8% annually could sustain the premium indefinitely. Bear contrarian: negative FCF for a "dividend income" stock is a red flag the narrative layer glosses over — the 3.4% yield is being funded by debt issuance while capex accelerates for decarbonization and grid hardening. Insider activity shows 23,500 shares sold in early May 2026 against modest awards — not a scream, but not the buying you'd expect if management saw the premium as justified. The narrative model correctly identifies this as "defensive story, not differentiated" — that's exactly right and it's why the premium shouldn't expand from here.
I agree with the synthesis "fully_priced" verdict but would push fair value slightly lower, to $110-115, reflecting that sub-6% ROIC doesn't deserve a 19.8x multiple even with growth visibility. The 3.4% yield plus ~5-6% earnings growth gets you to a ~9% total return expectation, which is fine but not compelling when 10-year Treasuries are wherever they are and you're taking on refinancing risk on $87B of debt. My read: overvalued by ~10%, but this is a hold-if-you-own-it, don't-chase-it situation rather than a short. The regime concern the models don't emphasize enough is interest rate sensitivity — every 50bp move in long rates re-prices utility multiples by roughly 1-2 turns, and Duke's refinancing cadence over the next 3 years is material. Wait for either a rates-driven pullback to $110-115 or clearer evidence that data center load is translating into above-authorized ROE. The narrative layer nailed it: this is the default utility story, and default stories don't earn premiums forever.
GPT Reading
Duke’s numbers read like a good regulated utility operationally and an expensive one financially. The business is doing what you want a utility to do: revenue has climbed from $24.7B in 2021 to $31.7B in 2025, about 6% annualized, while operating income improved from $5.37B to $8.63B and net income from $2.55B in 2022 to $4.97B in 2025. The quarterly cadence is stable rather than flashy: the last four quarters produced $32.7B of revenue and roughly $5.1B of net income, with net margins mostly sitting in the 16%-17% range except for the seasonally softer June quarters around 12%-13%. That is exactly the profile that deserves a market premium to cyclicals. But not every premium is justified. At $124.85, investors are paying about 19.8x earnings and 11.3x EV/EBITDA for a company with 5%-6% top-line growth, a 3.4% dividend yield, and no evidence of cash self-funding through the capex cycle.
The key issue is that Duke’s earnings quality is acceptable, but its cash economics are stretched. Operating cash flow of $12.33B is solid in isolation, yet capex of $14.02B left free cash flow at negative $1.69B. For a regulated utility, negative FCF is not automatically a red flag because rate base investment is the model; the concern is the scale of financing dependence layered onto an already heavy balance sheet. Duke ended 2025 with $87.21B of debt against just $245M of cash and $53.0B of equity, a debt/equity ratio of 1.64x and a current ratio of 0.55x. Return metrics also tell you this is a low-spread business despite strong accounting profits: ROIC is only 5.5% and ROA 2.5%. So while the market may see stable EPS growth, I see a company that must continually convince regulators and debt markets to validate a huge capital program. That deserves a utility multiple, not a scarcity multiple.
What stands out most is that the recent improvement in profit has not been matched by a better value proposition for equity holders. Net income rose 10% year over year in the latest quarter, and annual net income is up nicely versus 2023, but the stock still offers only a middling yield for the sector while trading above what the balance sheet would justify in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Price-to-book of 1.83x may not sound outrageous, yet for a utility with sub-10% ROE and structurally negative FCF, it does not scream bargain. The market cap is $97.35B against roughly $5.0B of annual earnings, and that would be easier to accept if Duke had either better yield support or clearer evidence that current capex will translate into faster regulated earnings growth. As presented, this looks like investors paying up for safety after much of that safety has already been capitalized.
The best argument against my view is straightforward: Duke is not meant to be judged like a normal industrial cash machine. Utilities intentionally run negative free cash flow during heavy investment periods because transmission, generation, and grid modernization enter rate base and support future earnings. On that reading, the debt load is large but ordinary for the asset intensity of the sector, while the income statement trend is exactly what matters. Revenue is compounding, operating margin is strong at 27.2%, net margin 15.7% is healthy, and quarterly profits have become much steadier than in 2022-2023. If regulators in Duke’s core territories continue allowing constructive returns, then 19.8x earnings is not crazy for a defensive compounder with low business risk. A bull would also note that the market is paying for resilience: in uncertain macro conditions, a company delivering $1.2B-$1.6B of quarterly earnings with durable demand can hold a premium longer than valuation purists expect.
I weigh those points differently because the premium is not being offered alongside unusually compelling income, unusually clean balance sheet strength, or unusually high growth. It is a plain, solid utility priced as though rate, regulatory, and financing risks are background noise. For me to turn more constructive, I would want to see either a better entry point around the low-$110s, which would bring the P/E and yield into a more forgiving range, or evidence that free cash flow is inflecting despite capex — for example, operating cash flow sustainably above $13.5B while capex moderates, or debt growth flattening even as EPS keeps compounding high single digits. Short of that, Duke looks like a quality franchise whose stock already reflects the quality.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Duke Energy is a classic regulated electric utility: revenue has climbed from $24.7B (2021) to $31.7B (2025), operating margin has expanded meaningfully from 21.8% to 27.2%, and net income grew from $3.91B to $4.97B. Earnings quality looks clean at the working-capital level (OCF/NI 2.63x, accruals -3.3% of assets), and diluted share count has crept only from 769M to 777M over five years (~0.3% CAGR) - dilution is not a per-share value drag.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Regulated vs unregulated revenue mix and pending rate case outcomes across Carolinas, Florida, Indiana
- Debt maturity schedule and weighted average cost of debt vs authorized ROE
- Capex forward plan and how much is recoverable via riders vs base rate cases
- Dividend coverage from operating cash flow after maintenance capex
- Any pending storm cost recoveries or securitizations affecting cash conversion
The composite fair value lands at $108.94 and the signal-adjusted FV at $114.17, with an EPV floor of $113.25 and an anchored P/E of $104.63 - a tight cluster in the $105-$114 range. Against a $124.85 price, that is roughly 9-15% of overvaluation depending on which anchor you weight. Earnings quality is good so no haircut is warranted, and the Solid business quality justifies pricing toward the upper end of the FV band - but not above it. The market is paying a modest premium for the safety and rate-base growth story, which is exactly what the bull case describes; the problem is that premium is already in the tape. Duke carries the structural negatives typical of a regulated utility - persistent negative FCF, heavy leverage, refi risk in a higher-rate world - and none of that argues for paying above the EPV floor. There is no margin of safety here; you are underwriting flawless regulatory outcomes and stable rates to earn a utility-like return from $124.85.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Latest rate case outcomes in Carolinas and Florida - allowed ROE and equity layer
- Capex trajectory vs operating cash flow - size of the FCF gap through 2026
- Dividend coverage and payout ratio under updated capex plan
- Interest expense sensitivity from refinancing near-term maturities
DUK sits in the sweet spot right now: the tape is calm risk-on (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs), but with beta 0.37 the market's mood barely moves the name either way. What matters more is the stock-specific narrative flow, and it just improved. Q2 2026 beat estimates, management is deploying over 1B per month into grid buildout, and a Charlotte data-center power deal reinforces the AI-power-demand story that has been quietly re-rating regulated utilities. That is a genuine, if modest, narrative tailwind on top of an already durable steady-compounder story. Offsetting that: a 10B equity issuance is a real overhang - dilution headlines press on utility investors who own the name for dividend reliability, and advocates publicly questioning growth projections adds a low-grade regulatory-risk drumbeat. Macro sensitivity cuts both ways too - 10y at 4.69% is a persistent headwind for rate-sensitive utility valuations, but the curve has normalized and peers (ED, PPL) reporting solid results signals sector tone is constructive, not deteriorating. Net: the AI-power narrative is landing on this specific name via real contracts, the earnings print validated the capex story, and the low-beta profile insulates it from any tape wobble. The equity raise and rate backdrop keep it from being a strong tailwind.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Market reception of the 10B equity offering - pricing and secondary trading
- Whether the data-center demand narrative broadens to more announced contracts
- Any state PUC pushback on capex assumptions in NC or SC rate cases
- Direction of the 10y - a move above 5% would materially pressure the sector
The world is handing regulated electrics their first structural demand growth in a generation: AI/data-center load, electrification and reshored manufacturing land disproportionately in the Southeast, exactly where Duke owns the wires. That converts capex plans from a cost-recovery argument into a necessity argument, which is the easiest kind to win at a commission. The offset is the rate environment — 4.69% long rates make a capital-hungry model structurally more expensive, and the bill-affordability politics of funding both decarbonization and load growth is the real governor on how much of the tailwind Duke keeps. Net: the demand side of Duke's world improved materially; the cost-of-capital side worsened; the business still grows.
When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, DUK was $124.85. We expect it to be $118.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $108.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.