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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +2 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 87 · Value -68 · Sentiment 55 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Garmin Ltd.
GRMN NYSEGarmin Ltd. is a technology company that develops and markets navigation, communication, and information devices, primarily enabled by Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. The company serves both consumer and professional markets through five core sectors: marine, outdoor, fitness, automotive, and aviation. Its portfolio includes GPS-enabled smartwatches and fitness trackers, handheld and outdoor navigation devices, automotive and Auto OEM solutions, and integrated avionics and flight systems for aircraft. Garmin emphasizes vertically integrated design and manufacturing, enabling tight control over hardware, software, and user experience. In the marine and aviation markets, it provides comprehensive navigation, communication, and situational awareness systems used by recreational users, commercial operators, and government or defense customers. Garmin operates globally, with a strong presence in North America and Europe, and is headquartered in Schaffhausen, Switzerland, where it has been based since its founding in 1989. Through its diversified segments, Garmin plays a significant role in positioning, navigation, and wearable technology ecosystems worldwide.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 8.59
Total Equity: $8.97B
Shares: 193,616,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.28B
EBITDA: $2.03B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.28B
Revenue: $7.25B
Revenue: $7.25B
Revenue: $7.25B
Total Equity: $8.97B
Tax Rate: 17.4%
Equity: $8.97B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.28B
Current Liabilities: $1.72B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $8.97B
Shares: 193,616,000
Shares: 193,616,000
CapEx: -$270.45M
Shares: 193,616,000
Stock Price: $310.15
Net Income: $1.66B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 11:24am (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $4.9B | $5.2B | $6.3B | $7.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.0B |
| Gross Profit | $2.9B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.7B | $4.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| Operating Income | $1.2B | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $973.6M | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.7B |
| EBITDA | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.0B |
| EPS | $5.63 | $5.06 | $6.74 | $7.35 | $8.65 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.61 | $5.04 | $6.71 | $7.30 | $8.59 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:46pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $4.3B | $4.0B | $4.5B | $5.3B | $6.2B |
| Total Assets | $7.9B | $7.7B | $8.6B | $9.6B | $11.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B |
| Total Equity | $6.1B | $6.2B | $7.0B | $7.8B | $9.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $4.3B | $4.7B | $5.3B | $6.0B | $7.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 11:24am (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.0B | $788.3M | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$307.6M | -$244.3M | -$193.5M | -$193.6M | -$270.4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $704.8M | $544.0M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$20.2M | -$13.5M | -$150.9M | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$491.5M | -$679.1M | -$558.8M | -$572.4M | -$663.9M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $40.1M | -$218.9M | $414.2M | $386.0M | $199.2M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 11:24am (11d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -2.5% | +7.6% | +20.4% | +15.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -2.9% | +7.1% | +23.0% | +15.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | -15.7% | +6.3% | +45.9% | +17.7% |
| Net Income Growth | -10.0% | +32.5% | +9.4% | +17.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | -13.3% | +6.8% | +41.6% | +17.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:46pm (12d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-13 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-12 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-16 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-17 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-16 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-14 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-14 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-16 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-14 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-14 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-14 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-12Garmin's highest-margin revenue sits behind FAA/EASA certification, installed marine/aviation dealer networks and physical sensor hardware — assets cheap software cannot reproduce — while free-falling model costs let Garmin add physiological reasoning and conversational coaching to Connect+ without a matching R&D or headcount build.
In fitness/outdoor wearables the differentiator is migrating from sensor accuracy and battery life toward AI interpretation and conversational coaching, a layer Apple, Google and phone-resident assistants can deliver from far stronger model and data platforms — risking Garmin's reduction to a commodity sensor peripheral.
Whether Garmin's device remains the locus of the health/training decision or becomes an input to someone else's assistant. Observable: Connect+ paid attach and ARPU disclosure, plus whether new fitness features require new hardware or ship free to installed devices.
Type-certified avionics and retrofit installed base with aircraft-level liability, vertically integrated sensor/antenna manufacturing, marine OEM and dealer channels, satellite inReach infrastructure, and 20 years of longitudinal activity physiology from Firstbeat-derived metrics.
AI Lens thesis
AI reaches Garmin almost entirely at the interpretation layer, not the transaction: the underlying needs — know where you are, fly and navigate safely, measure your body — are physical and persist, and the monetized unit is still a manufactured device sold through channels that require certification, calibration and shelf space. Cheap intelligence therefore does two opposite things: it lets Garmin turn a decade of proprietary physiological data into recurring software revenue at near-zero marginal cost, and it simultaneously erases the software gap that justified a premium versus Apple, Samsung, Whoop, Oura and Chinese entrants who can now buy world-class inference. Aviation and marine, roughly the profit engine, are effectively insulated by liability and certification; auto OEM faces a different AI risk as OEMs consolidate cockpit compute onto platform vendors. Net: exposure is real but concentrated in one segment, and the vertical-integration cost structure at 58.7% gross margin is what AI cannot copy.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside Garmin's longitudinal per-athlete physiology corpus is the kind of data a general model cannot synthesize; a credible AI coach priced as subscription converts an episodic hardware buyer into recurring revenue at software gross margin on top of an already 25.9% operating-margin base.
Downside If phone-resident agents own the health conversation, Garmin's premium collapses toward BOM-plus economics precisely where volume growth lives — and the same cheap engineering that helps Garmin lets Whoop/Oura-style and low-cost Asian entrants match feature sets far faster than historically.
Outcome range spread 42
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterlies first: TTM revenue is roughly $7.45B ($1.75+$2.12+$1.77+$1.81) with TTM net income near $1.74B — that's a ~23.3% net margin and about 18% YoY on the March 2026 quarter ($1.75B vs $1.54B). Q4 seasonality is real (holiday wearables), but the March 2026 print at 23.1% margin is up 140bps YoY, and full-year 2025 op margin hit 25.9% vs 25.2% in 2024 and 20.8% in 2023. That's the actual story here — this isn't a mature earner coasting, it's a business that has quietly re-rated its margin structure by ~500bps over three years while compounding revenue at 17.7% CAGR. Zero debt, $2.28B cash, 23% ROIC, 3.6x current ratio. The financial quality is not in dispute.
Where I part ways with the synthesis: a $214 fair value implies the market is paying a 44% premium for narrative, but that DCF is almost certainly baking in reversion to a mid-single-digit growth mature-hardware profile. Against $1.36B FCF and $60.4B market cap, GRMN trades at ~44x FCF — rich, yes, but on a business growing FCF-adjacent earnings 15-18% with expanding margins and no leverage. If you credit even three more years of low-teens earnings growth before fade, DCF fair value pushes into the $260-280 range, not $214. The synthesis model appears to be penalizing the multiple without adequately rewarding the demonstrated margin inflection in aviation/marine/outdoor — segments where Garmin has actually shown pricing power, not just narrative pricing power. That said, the pre-flight AI's "high-teens revenue growth" extrapolation is also aggressive; the "decelerating quarterly trend" flag is fair — the 15.1% recent YoY is below the 17.7% CAGR, and comps get harder.
The contrarian case that isn't getting enough airtime: fitness wearables (~30% of revenue) face Apple Watch Ultra, Whoop, and increasingly capable Samsung/Chinese entrants at lower price points. Garmin's premium positioning has held, but ASPs in fitness are the leading indicator to watch and we don't have segment data here. Aviation is cyclical and tied to GA aircraft deliveries — good now, but not immune. The insider activity is telling in a soft way: nothing but sales, gifts, and in-kind — no opportunistic buys at $310. That's consistent with insiders viewing the stock as fully-to-richly valued, not screamingly cheap. The 322,000-share gift is large but likely estate/charitable planning rather than a signal. Also worth flagging: the data shows a Q1 2026 print dated March 2026 and insider transactions in June 2026, so we're evaluating this with roughly current information — the "stale data" concern doesn't apply, but the momentum evidence is only one quarter into FY26.
Net verdict: I dissent partially from the "overvalued, $214 fair value" synthesis. GRMN is expensive but not 30% overvalued — the synthesis model is under-crediting the margin structural shift and the zero-debt, high-ROIC capital efficiency. My read is fair value in the $260-285 range on a 25-28x forward earnings basis (roughly $9.50-10 EPS on 2026 estimates), making $310 modestly overvalued by ~10-15%, not dramatically so. This isn't a short; it's a "don't chase, trim on strength, buy meaningful weakness sub-$260." The narrative model's framing — "wide moat in boring markets, price assumes moat widens" — is exactly right, and the moat has actually been widening (margins prove it), which is why I'd underwrite more premium than the pure DCF allows. But the setup for FY26 is decelerating comps against a stock priced for continued acceleration, and insiders aren't buying. That's a "hold quality, don't add here" configuration, not a table-pounding short.
GPT Reading
Garmin is earning its premium operationally, but not enough to justify this premium valuation. The core fact pattern is strong: revenue grew from $5.23B in 2023 to $6.30B in 2024 and $7.25B in 2025, a two-year increase of 39%, while operating income climbed from $1.09B to $1.59B to $1.88B. That is not a sleepy hardware business in decline. Gross margin expanded to 58.7% in 2025 from 57.4% in 2024 and 57.3% in 2023, and operating margin reached 25.9%, up from 20.9% in 2023. Just as important, the growth is not being bought with leverage or bloated reinvestment: Garmin has no debt, $2.28B of cash, $1.63B of operating cash flow, and $1.36B of free cash flow. ROIC at 23.2% is excellent. The business has clearly transitioned far beyond the old automotive GPS stereotype and now looks like a high-quality niche device and systems company with real pricing power.
The quarterly cadence also supports the idea that this is not a one-quarter spike. 2025 quarterly revenue ran $1.54B, $1.81B, $1.77B, and $2.12B, then 2026 Q1 came in at $1.75B versus $1.54B a year earlier, up 13.6%. Net income in that same comparison rose from $332.8M to $405.1M, up 21.7%, with margin improving from 21.7% to 23.1%. Across the last eight quarters, net margin has mostly sat in the 22%-25% band, which is unusually resilient for a hardware-heavy company. That tells me Garmin’s portfolio mix is improving and the company has more structural profitability than many investors still appreciate. In other words, the “mature earner” label is directionally right on quality and cash generation but understates the growth and margin expansion still present in the numbers.
But the stock price is already capitalizing that success aggressively. At $310, the company is worth about $60.4B against 2025 revenue of $7.25B, net income of $1.66B, and free cash flow of $1.36B. That is 8.3x sales, 36x earnings, and roughly 44x free cash flow for a business with a 1.2% dividend yield. Those multiples are rich even for software; for a device-centric company, they require a belief that mid-teens revenue growth and 20%+ earnings growth can persist for years with little margin giveback. I do not think the raw data support that duration. The latest four reported quarters total roughly $7.45B of revenue and $1.66B of net income, so the business is still executing, but the quarter-to-quarter pattern shows revenue growth remaining good rather than accelerating. Once you are already at 23%-25% net margins, further upside becomes harder. A no-debt balance sheet and high returns justify a premium, but not an almost flawless one.
The best argument against my caution is straightforward: Garmin has repeatedly outgrown what a traditional hardware multiple would imply. From 2021 to 2025, revenue increased from $4.98B to $7.25B, while net income rose from $1.08B to $1.66B, and margins are now better than they were through much of that period. If the market is correctly identifying Garmin as a rare “quality industrial tech” compounder—capital-light, category-leading in mission-critical niches, and less cyclical than feared—then 36x earnings may compress naturally into the low 30s without a price decline because earnings keep rising. The cash-rich, debt-free structure also materially lowers downside risk, and insider activity here is not a red flag; the visible sales are tiny, while gifts and in-kind transfers tell you almost nothing about operating outlook. If management can sustain 15% revenue growth with margins around current levels, the current price will look less absurd than static valuation screens suggest.
What would change my mind is evidence that Garmin can keep compounding at something close to the recent run rate without margin erosion. Specifically, if the next few quarters show revenue staying above 12%-15% y/y while net margin holds above 22% and annual free cash flow pushes toward $1.6B-$1.8B, I would accept that the business deserves a much higher terminal multiple than I’m giving it. Conversely, if growth slips into high single digits while gross margin stalls near 58% and operating leverage fades, the stock’s 8x revenue and 36x earnings setup becomes vulnerable fast. At today’s price, the burden of proof is on continued exceptional execution, not merely “good” results.
Grok Reading
Garmin’s numbers describe a genuinely excellent industrial-tech franchise that the market has simply overpaid for. Revenue scaled from $5.23B in 2023 to $6.30B in 2024 to $7.25B in 2025—roughly 15–20% annual steps after a flat 2021–22 stretch—while net income climbed to $1.66B and free cash flow hit $1.36B on only $270M of capex. Gross margin sits at 58.7%, operating margin at 25.9%, net margin at 23.0%, ROIC at 23.2%, and the balance sheet carries $2.28B cash against zero debt. That is textbook capital-light compounding. The quarterly tape, however, already shows the deceleration the secondary signals flag: the March 2026 quarter delivered $1.75B (+13.6% YoY) after a $2.12B holiday print, and sequential margins, while still excellent at 22–25%, are no longer expanding aggressively. At $310 the stock trades 36× trailing earnings, 8.3× sales and 28.6× EV/EBITDA; the FCF yield is a thin 2.25%. Those multiples embed continued mid-teens growth and margin durability that the recent run-rate no longer fully supports. The valuation synthesis fair value near $214 is harsh but directionally correct—quality does not justify a 40-plus-percent premium to intrinsic cash generation when FCF CAGR (7.4%) already lags earnings CAGR (13.6%).
The cleanest bull rebuttal is that aviation and marine are structurally different from the old consumer GPS business that smartphones gutted. Switching costs are high, certification barriers are real, and Garmin’s vertical integration plus brand trust with pilots and boaters have produced durable pricing power that shows up in the 58% gross margin and rising operating leverage. ROE of 18.5% on a debt-free equity base of $8.97B, a 40% payout ratio that still leaves ample reinvestment capacity, and insider activity that is merely neutral rather than distributional all argue the franchise is not in secular decline. A quality-compounder multiple in the mid-20s PE would still leave the stock expensive relative to most industrials, yet the narrative of “wide moat in boring, life-critical niches” has real fundamental anchors and explains why the market refuses to mark the name down to a pure hardware multiple. I weigh that less heavily because the same data set already shows revenue growth cooling from the 20% zone toward low-teens while the multiple has not compressed; the premium is therefore pricing permanence of a growth rate that is already moderating.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only if the next two quarters re-accelerate revenue above 18% YoY with operating margin holding above 26%, or if management demonstrates that aviation/marine mix can push consolidated FCF growth back into the mid-teens without a step-up in capex. A clear multiple compression toward 25–27× forward earnings on still-rising absolute earnings would also reset the risk/reward.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Garmin runs a fortress balance sheet: $2.28B liquid cash equals net cash (no material debt), Altman Z of 20.53 sits deep in the safe zone, and the business self-funds with $1.36B FCF against a modest cash/mktcap ratio because earnings, not the balance sheet, do the heavy lifting. Revenue has scaled from $4.98B (2021) to $7.25B (2025), a ~9.8% CAGR, while gross margin held ~57-59% and operating margin expanded from 24.5% to 25.9%, with a mid-cycle dip to 20.9% in 2023 fully recovered. Net income grew from $1.08B to $1.66B and FCF from $705M to $1.36B - roughly doubling - indicating genuine operating leverage in a hardware business, which is atypical.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment mix and growth durability (Fitness vs Outdoor vs Aviation vs Marine vs Auto) - concentration risk
- Aviation/Marine competitive position and any regulatory or OEM contract dependencies
- Inventory levels and channel health post-2022 correction
- Any customer concentration disclosure in 10-K
- Capital return policy (dividends vs buybacks) given growing cash pile
The e2e composite fair value is $205.64 and signal-adjusted $214.01, implying roughly -31% downside from $308.53. The DCF pins $158.78 and EPV floor $87.07, both well below price; only the anchored-PE method ($417.92) supports today's tape, and that method is essentially extrapolating a premium multiple onto peak margins - it deserves a heavy skeptical discount, not equal weight. Splitting the difference generously (weighting anchored-PE more because quality is genuine and earnings are clean) still lands deserved value in the $230-260 zone, i.e. price is 15-30% above what the business deserves. Quality is Fortress (score 87) with clean earnings, so I will not haircut for accounting - but a great business at a full price is not a mispricing. The bull case (aviation/marine pricing power, margin expansion) appears already baked in; the bear case (hardware maturation, wearable commoditization, auto decline) is not being priced. Margin of safety here is negative: you are paying for continued margin expansion and multiple persistence with no cushion if consumer/fitness softens.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Aviation and marine segment growth and margin trajectory in latest 10-Q
- Fitness segment unit trends and ASPs vs Apple Watch cycle
- FY guidance updates and any signs of consumer/auto softness
- Buyback pace and capital return given the debt-light balance sheet
The non-fundamental pressure on GRMN is clearly positive right now. A big Q2 beat and raised guidance on July 29 detonated a 16% single-day move, media is running 'up 50% YTD, all-time high' headlines, and analyst tone is drifting upward on the back of the raise. That is a self-reinforcing narrative loop for a quiet-quality name that normally attracts little attention. With beta 0.87 and a diversified, profitable hardware franchise, the modestly risk-on tape (VIX 15, S&P near highs) lands cleanly on this stock without the froth-risk that would hit a high-beta story name. Macro headwinds (10y 4.72%, market PE 26) are real but muted here given low leverage, no rate-sensitive multiple, and a defensive earnings profile. The pushback is a fading bear whisper that price sits well above intrinsic value (DCF ~$214 vs $308), but with no rotation catalyst, no downgrade wave, and a fresh beat-and-raise, that narrative has no teeth this week. Net: momentum + news flow + tape all point the same way, moderate intensity, sustainable for now.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether sell-side price-target revisions post-Q2 keep flowing (extends the tailwind) or stall
- Any rotation out of quiet-quality/mid-cap tech if VIX pushes back above 20
- First soft data point (channel check, wearables share loss) that would let the 'commoditizing hardware' bear narrative reignite
- Insider selling into the all-time high
AI reaches Garmin almost entirely at the interpretation layer, not the transaction: the underlying needs — know where you are, fly and navigate safely, measure your body — are physical and persist, and the monetized unit is still a manufactured device sold through channels that require certification, calibration and shelf space. Cheap intelligence therefore does two opposite things: it lets Garmin turn a decade of proprietary physiological data into recurring software revenue at near-zero marginal cost, and it simultaneously erases the software gap that justified a premium versus Apple, Samsung, Whoop, Oura and Chinese entrants who can now buy world-class inference. Aviation and marine, roughly the profit engine, are effectively insulated by liability and certification; auto OEM faces a different AI risk as OEMs consolidate cockpit compute onto platform vendors. Net: exposure is real but concentrated in one segment, and the vertical-integration cost structure at 58.7% gross margin is what AI cannot copy.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- Fitness segment unit vs ASP mix
- Wearable replacement cycle length
- Aviation retrofit and OEM backlog
- Average selling price by segment
- Free features shipped to old hardware
- Subscription ARPU and churn
- Rival AI coaching launches at lower price
- Garmin feature parity gap narrowing
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for GRMN — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.