For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for GSK plc (GSK) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -23 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 35 · Value -71 · Sentiment 11 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $32.03 vs $52.96 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
GSK plc
GSK NYSEGSK plc Sponsored ADR represents ownership in GSK plc, a global biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing prescription medicines and vaccines. The company operates across key therapeutic areas including infectious diseases, HIV, respiratory conditions, immunology, and oncology, with a portfolio that spans vaccines, specialty medicines, and general medicines for widespread chronic and acute conditions. GSK plc Sponsored ADR is structured so that each receipt corresponds to a specific number of GSK’s ordinary shares, allowing investors outside the UK to gain direct exposure to the company’s equity through US markets. The instrument plays a role in facilitating cross-border capital access, making GSK’s shares more readily available to institutional and retail investors who prefer US dollar-denominated securities. Headquartered in the London area, GSK today is positioned as a major participant in the global healthcare sector, supplying pharmaceuticals and vaccines to governments, healthcare systems, and patients worldwide through a mix of direct sales, partnerships, and distribution networks.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.87
Total Equity: $21.49B
Shares: 4,117,000,000
Total Debt: $23.86B
Cash: $4.57B
EBITDA: $13.80B
Total Debt: $23.86B
Cash: $4.57B
Revenue: $43.99B
Revenue: $43.99B
Revenue: $43.99B
Total Equity: $21.49B
Tax Rate: 15.0%
Equity: $21.49B
Total Debt: $23.86B
Cash: $4.57B
Current Liabilities: $28.80B
Long-Term Debt: $19.80B
Total Debt: $23.86B
Total Equity: $21.49B
Shares: 4,117,000,000
Shares: 4,117,000,000
CapEx: -$1.82B
Shares: 4,117,000,000
Stock Price: $52.96
Net Income: $7.70B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.9B | $39.5B | $40.8B | $42.2B | $44.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $15.6B | $12.9B | $11.5B | $12.2B | $12.1B |
| Gross Profit | $30.3B | $26.6B | $29.3B | $30.1B | $31.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $22.0B | $18.0B | $20.2B | $24.7B | $21.2B |
| Operating Income | $8.3B | $8.7B | $9.1B | $5.4B | $10.7B |
| Net Income | $5.9B | $20.1B | $6.6B | $3.5B | $7.7B |
| EBITDA | $11.5B | $11.6B | $12.2B | $8.8B | $13.8B |
| EPS | $1.18 | $5.00 | $1.64 | $0.85 | $1.90 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.17 | $4.93 | $1.61 | $0.84 | $1.87 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $5.8B | $5.0B | $4.0B | $5.2B | $4.6B |
| Total Current Assets | $25.1B | $28.0B | $25.1B | $22.9B | $23.6B |
| Total Assets | $106.5B | $81.0B | $79.5B | $80.1B | $82.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $31.9B | $30.7B | $28.4B | $29.2B | $28.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $27.7B | $22.9B | $20.5B | $19.7B | $19.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $77.8B | $67.4B | $62.2B | $62.4B | $60.8B |
| Total Equity | $28.7B | $13.6B | $17.2B | $17.6B | $21.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $10.7B | $5.9B | $9.7B | $10.5B | $13.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $10.7B | $10.0B | $9.1B | $8.8B | $10.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.6B | -$1.5B | -$1.8B | -$1.9B | -$1.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.1B | $8.4B | $7.3B | $6.9B | $8.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | -$4.2B | -$2.0B | -$1.1B | -$2.3B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$1.9B | -$735.2M | -$630.2M | $806.6M | -$238.3M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -14.0% | +3.4% | +3.5% | +4.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -12.2% | +10.1% | +2.6% | +5.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +3.7% | +4.8% | -40.4% | +97.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +241.1% | -67.1% | -47.7% | +122.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +0.0% | +5.3% | -27.3% | +55.9% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-18 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-23 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-17 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-18 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-19 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-24 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-18 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-19 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The synthesis's $31-33 fair value is the number I most want to interrogate, because it implies the market is 60%+ wrong on a $106B mature pharma with $8.6B FCF and a 3.4% yield. Let me check the arithmetic myself. At $52.96 and $8.61B FCF, GSK trades at ~12.3x FCF and ~5.3x EV/revenue — those are not premium multiples for a diversified pharma. The 28x P/E is misleading because 2024 net income ($3.47B) was depressed by Zantac litigation charges; the 2025 print of $7.70B NI implies a normalized P/E closer to 13-14x, entirely reasonable for a company with 72% gross margins, 24% operating margins, and 22% ROIC. The DCF model spitting out $31 is almost certainly using a punitive terminal growth assumption or capitalizing the 2024 trough earnings — either way, it is not a number I would anchor to.
That said, the bull case has real weaknesses the synthesis undersells. Revenue CAGR of 3.8% is genuinely mediocre, and 2025 revenue of $43.99B is still below 2021's $45.94B — four years to recover from the Haleon spin plus Zantac drag. The "122% earnings YoY" is a base-effect artifact, not a growth story. Current ratio of 0.82 is tight, debt-to-equity of 1.11 is manageable but not conservative, and $23.86B debt against $4.57B cash gives limited flexibility for a transformational deal. Shingrix is maturing, Arexvy RSV faced a shock ACIP recommendation narrowing in 2024, and the oncology pipeline (Jemperli, Blenrep re-approval) is credible but not a Keytruda-caliber growth engine. The bear's "mid-tier pharma with aging franchises" framing is fair.
Where I part ways with the synthesis is the leap from "mediocre growth" to "40% overvalued." A mature pharma yielding 3.4%, growing FCF at 8%, trading at 12x FCF with pharma-average multiples is not obviously mispriced — it's priced like what it is. The market-forces "neutral / mid-single-digit total return" read is far more defensible than the synthesis's aggressive discount. The narrative layer's admission that "40-50 bps of the premium is narrative" while calling the DCF a 1.7x anchor is internally inconsistent — if only ~half the premium is story, the DCF must be too low. I'd put intrinsic value in the $48-58 range: 13x normalized $7.7B NI = ~$100B, plus you're getting a yield that covers most of the required return. The pre-flight and classification calls (mature_earner, traditional) are correct and boring, which is the right read.
The contrarian angle worth naming: everyone assumes the dividend is safe because GSK says so, but with $8.61B FCF, a ~$3.6B dividend cost, and ambitions to invest in oncology/vaccines pipeline plus service $23.86B debt, there is less cushion than the yield-seekers assume. A pipeline setback plus another litigation reserve could force a cut, and fallen-angel dividend cuts get punished ferociously (see Pfizer 2023-24, down 40%+ from highs). The bigger risk to my view is that Shingrix growth flatlines globally by 2026 and the RSV franchise disappoints — in that scenario the $32 DCF starts to look prescient rather than punitive. Also worth flagging: the data file shows no quarterly trajectory (blank section) and no insider activity, so I'm reasoning off annuals only, which is thin for a call this precise. I dissent from "overvalued" but only softly — this is fairly-valued-to-modestly-cheap, not a screaming buy.
Net: the synthesis's $31 fair value is a model artifact, not a defensible intrinsic estimate. Market forces has it closer to right. GSK is a defensive income holding at ~13x normalized earnings and a covered 3.4% yield, with limited upside absent a pipeline surprise and limited downside absent a dividend scare. I'd own it in an income sleeve, not a growth book, and I wouldn't chase it above $58.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say GSK is not a broken pharma, but they also do not justify paying a premium multiple for what is basically a mid-single-digit grower with decent cash conversion. Revenue has clawed back from $45.94B in 2021 to $43.99B in 2025, but that four-year view is less impressive than the headline 3.8% CAGR suggests because 2021 was a higher base and the business has really just been rebuilding after portfolio reshaping. The more relevant recent trend is better: $40.84B in 2023, $42.25B in 2024, $43.99B in 2025, or about 4% annual top-line growth. Margins improved sharply in 2025, with operating income jumping to $10.68B from $5.41B and net income to $7.70B from $3.47B. That matters, but it also tells me 2024 was unusually depressed rather than 2025 representing some dramatic new earnings power. On a normalized basis, GSK looks like a company capable of roughly $8.5B-$10.5B of operating profit and around $7B-$8B of net income, which is solid but not rare in large-cap pharma.
Cash flow is the cleanest part of the story. $10.42B of operating cash flow and $8.61B of free cash flow on $43.99B of revenue is a strong outcome, and capex is modest at $1.82B. A $106.07B market cap against $8.61B of FCF gives a roughly 8.1% FCF yield before thinking about pipeline volatility, which is respectable. Net debt is manageable at about $19.3B after subtracting $4.57B of cash from $23.86B of debt. That leverage is not troubling for this earnings base, and the 3.4% dividend looks serviceable. But the valuation still asks for more confidence than I have. A 28.3x P/E, 16.9x EV/EBITDA, and 5.0x sales multiple is not cheap for a company with 4% revenue growth and a current ratio below 1.0. The 10.1x price-to-book is especially unhelpful as a valuation comfort blanket here; equity is only $21.49B, so the market is capitalizing intangibles and future pipeline value very aggressively. For a mature pharma with some execution risk, I would want either faster growth or a lower entry price.
What stands out most is the tension between quality and valuation. The business quality is real: gross margin of 72.4%, operating margin of 24.3%, ROIC of 22.3%, and FCF that more or less corroborates earnings. Those are the traits of a durable enterprise, not a value trap. But the market already knows that. At $52.96, investors are not paying for a restructuring recovery; they are paying as if recovery has been completed and the next leg is dependable compounding. I do not see enough evidence in the data packet to underwrite that confidently. The 2022 net income of $20.14B is clearly distorted by non-recurring items, and the 2024 earnings dip shows how lumpy reported pharma profitability can be. If I haircut 2025 as a rebound year and think in terms of through-cycle earnings power, the stock looks more fully valued to somewhat expensive than outright cheap. My bias is that fair value is closer to the mid-$40s than the low-$30s implied by the harshest models, but still below the current quote.
The best argument against this read is straightforward: this may be exactly the kind of large pharma you should pay up for in an uncertain macro tape. GSK has improving revenue, a big jump in profitability, strong free cash flow, a covered dividend, and balance-sheet leverage that is manageable rather than stretched. If 2025 operating income of $10.68B is the new baseline rather than a rebound peak, then the current P/E will compress quickly. A bull would also point to the 122% recent earnings growth and say the market is rerating a business that has finally moved past the messier transition years. On that framing, 5x sales and 17x EV/EBITDA are not absurd for defensive healthcare cash flows, especially relative to lower-quality defensives in other sectors. I weigh that argument less heavily because I do not like paying a full multiple immediately after a margin snapback, particularly when long-term top-line growth remains in the low single digits.
What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 was not just a rebound but a new earnings floor. If GSK can push revenue above $46B with operating margin holding above 24% and free cash flow consistently above $9B, then today’s price starts to look more defensible and even mildly cheap for a defensive compounder. Conversely, if revenue stalls back near $42B-$43B or operating profit slips below $9B, the stock will look clearly over-earned and overvalued. Pipeline and product-franchise durability matter, but the simple numerical test is whether this business can sustain high-teen net margins and high-single-digit FCF growth from here. Until I see that, I think the stock is priced for execution that is better than the evidence yet proves.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
GSK generates consistent free cash flow (8.61B in 2025, 6.94-9.13B range across five years) on revenue that has rebuilt from a 2022 post-Haleon-separation trough of 39.49B to 43.99B in 2025. Gross margin has expanded meaningfully from 66% to 72.4%, indicating mix improvement and pricing power in specialty/vaccine franchises. Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI at 1.52x, accruals -1% of assets, Beneish M at -2.5, and the mechanical checks flag nothing. Diluted share count has actually declined at a 5.1% CAGR (5.07B to 4.12B), reflecting the Haleon demerger plus modest buyback activity against only 1.1% SBC-to-revenue - per-share value is being protected, not eroded. Net debt of roughly 19.3B against 8.6B annual FCF is a real constraint (a 2-2.5x FCF payback) but manageable for a mature pharma with this cash conversion. Altman Z at 2.17 sits in the grey zone, consistent with a leveraged but not distressed large-cap. The one visible wobble is operating margin volatility - 22.2% in 2023 collapsing to 12.8% in 2024 then snapping back to 24.3% in 2025, and net income swinging from 20.14B (2022, boosted by demerger gain) to 3.47B (2024) to 7.70B. That pattern suggests recurring litigation/legal charges (Zantac overhang is the obvious candidate) or restructuring items rather than core operating deterioration, since gross margin and FCF held steady throughout.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Nature and magnitude of 2024 charges that compressed OpM to 12.8% - Zantac litigation reserves, restructuring, or impairments?
- Debt maturity ladder and refinancing schedule against the 19.3B net debt position
- Pipeline concentration and LOE (loss of exclusivity) cliff for top products post-2027
- Whether buyback activity is ongoing or if share count decline is largely one-time Haleon demerger mechanics
- Segment mix: specialty vs vaccines vs general medicines contribution to the GM expansion
The e2e composite fair value is $32.68 and the signal-adjusted FV is $31.36, implying ~41% downside from the $52.96 print. The DCF at $37.84 is the most generous input and still sits ~29% below the market; the EPV floor at $22.35 says the current earnings stream alone justifies less than half the price. That gap is not a runaway-method artifact - both methods point the same direction, and the quality lens (score 35, Solid but leveraged at 2.3x FCF net debt with lumpy operating margins from recurring legal charges) does not warrant paying a premium multiple. Deserved value nudges up modestly for high earnings quality and the stabilized vaccine/oncology franchises, but not to $53. What is priced in: successful pipeline conversion in oncology, durable Shingrix/RSV economics, and legal overhang fading - i.e. the bull case largely intact. The bear read (aging respiratory, antibiotic erosion, oncology execution risk) is essentially ignored. For a mid-growth pharma with real leverage and recurring litigation noise, paying ~1.4-1.7x deserved value is rich, not a bargain. This is not a catastrophic overpricing - GSK yields a dividend and has real franchises - but on the numbers handed to me, there is no valuation edge here.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether recurring 'other charges' below operating line are Zantac/legal one-offs or structural
- Oncology pipeline readouts (Jemperli, Blenrep re-launch) that would raise DCF terminal growth
- Vaccine franchise durability - Shingrix demand curve and RSV competitive dynamics
- Guidance updates on 2026-2031 revenue targets that underpin the DCF
GSK sits in a genuinely quiet sentiment zone. The tape is risk-on (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs) but with beta 0.3 that macro tailwind barely reaches this name - defensive pharma is exactly what rotates OUT when animal spirits run, not into. Offsetting that, rates at 4.69% are a mild drag on dividend-yield proxies like GSK, but the yield-arbitrage narrative appears to be holding it up anyway. Net macro pressure is close to neutral. The active narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability 'fallen angel post-Haleon spin' repricing - not a mania, no cult following, just institutional money slowly warming to a boring compounder. That is a soft tailwind but nothing decisive; the story is not accelerating and could just as easily stall. News flow is benign background noise (a flu vaccine market report mentioning GSK among peers) - no catalyst, no scandal, no analyst-tone shift visible. With no dominant force in either direction and a low-beta name insulated from the broader tape, this reads as balanced with a very slight tailwind bias from the ongoing re-rating narrative.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any crack in the post-Haleon re-rating narrative - a pipeline miss in oncology or Shingrix guidance cut would break the story fast
- 10y yield direction - a move above 5% would meaningfully pressure the dividend-yield thesis holding the multiple
- Sector rotation signals - if healthcare underperforms in a risk-on tape, defensives get sold as funding
- Analyst target revisions and consensus split (not provided in brief) - shift in tone would be the first sentiment tell
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, GSK was $52.96. We expect it to be $49.80 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $38.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.