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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -17 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 32 · Value -57 · Sentiment -41 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $369.15 vs $406.62 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
HCA Healthcare Inc.
HCA NYSEHCA Healthcare Inc. is a healthcare services company that operates hospitals, freestanding surgery centers, emergency care facilities, urgent care clinics, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation centers, physician practices, home health, hospice, and outpatient therapy services. It serves patients through a broad network of acute care hospitals and ambulatory sites across the United States and the United Kingdom. The company focuses on delivering inpatient and outpatient care, including medical and surgical services, emergency treatment, cardiac care, radiology, laboratory services, and physical therapy. HCA Healthcare Inc. plays a central role in organized healthcare delivery by connecting hospital-based care with community-based and specialty services, supporting access to a wide range of clinical offerings across multiple care settings.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 28.33
Total Equity: -$2.77B
Shares: 239,495,000
Total Debt: $46.49B
Cash: $1.04B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $46.49B
Cash: $1.04B
Revenue: $75.60B
Revenue: $75.60B
Revenue: $75.60B
Total Equity: -$2.77B
Tax Rate: 20.9%
Equity: -$2.77B
Total Debt: $46.49B
Cash: $1.04B
Current Liabilities: $16.35B
Long-Term Debt: $41.60B
Total Debt: $46.49B
Total Equity: -$2.77B
Shares: 239,495,000
Shares: 239,495,000
CapEx: -$4.94B
Shares: 239,495,000
Stock Price: $404.23
Net Income: $6.78B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.8B | $60.2B | $65.0B | $70.6B | $75.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $48.9B | $51.7B | $57.3B | $62.1B | $65.8B |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $7.0B | $5.6B | $5.2B | $5.8B | $6.8B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $21.52 | $19.43 | $19.25 | $22.27 | $28.70 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $21.16 | $19.15 | $18.97 | $22.00 | $28.33 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 4:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.5B | $908.0M | $935.0M | $1.9B | $1.0B |
| Total Current Assets | $13.5B | $13.6B | $14.9B | $16.4B | $15.8B |
| Total Assets | $50.7B | $52.4B | $56.2B | $59.5B | $60.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $9.6B | $9.9B | $12.7B | $15.2B | $16.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $34.3B | $37.7B | $37.2B | $38.3B | $41.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $49.3B | $52.5B | $55.2B | $59.0B | $63.5B |
| Total Equity | $1.5B | -$73.0M | $1.1B | $555.0M | -$2.8B |
| Retained Earnings | -$532.0M | -$2.3B | -$1.4B | -$2.1B | -$5.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.0B | $8.5B | $9.4B | $10.5B | $12.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$3.6B | -$4.4B | -$4.7B | -$4.9B | -$4.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.4B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $5.6B | $7.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $475.0M | $3.2B | $2.3B | $5.1B | $1.1B |
| Dividends Paid | -$624.0M | -$653.0M | -$661.0M | -$690.0M | -$679.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$8.2B | -$7.0B | -$3.8B | -$6.0B | -$10.1B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$342.0M | -$543.0M | $27.0M | $998.0M | -$893.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +2.5% | +7.9% | +8.7% | +7.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income Growth | -18.9% | -7.1% | +9.9% | +17.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 4:50pm (20d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-16 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-17 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-13 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-13 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-15 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-15 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-16 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-13 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-15 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:55Even the bull case prices 10% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 34%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($406.62) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +10% | 10.2% | $367.76 | -10% |
| Base — stabilizes | +7% | 8.9% | $292.17 | -28% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +3% | 7.6% | $228.13 | -44% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +4% | 8.9% | $269.48 | -34% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: revenue trajectory is $17.49B → $18.29B → $18.32B → $18.61B → $19.16B → $19.51B → $19.11B across the last seven quarters. That most recent Q1 2026 print is a sequential decline from $19.51B, and YoY growth of $19.11B vs $18.32B is 4.3% — a clear deceleration from the 7-8% pace earlier in 2025. Net income margin also compressed to 8.5% from 9.6% the prior quarter. The 7.9% revenue CAGR and 13.8% earnings CAGR the momentum module cites are backward-looking; the freshest data point says growth is cooling and margin is giving back some of the 2024→2025 gains. That matters because the fully_priced verdict rests on continuation.
Balance sheet deserves more scrutiny than the prior models gave it. $46.5B debt, $1.04B cash, and negative $2.77B equity — HCA's book equity has been negative for years due to buybacks, so that's not new, but the leverage is real and rate-sensitive. FCF of $7.69B against ~$87B market cap is a 8.8% FCF yield, which sounds attractive until you note the FCF CAGR of 28.1% is calculated off a depressed 2022-2023 base (working capital normalization post-COVID) and is not a sustainable run rate. Capex of $4.94B against $12.64B OCF means maintenance intensity is real — this isn't an asset-light compounder. ROA of 11% is genuinely good for a hospital operator, and the 14.4x P/E is not demanding, but it's also not a bargain when you adjust EV for the $45B net debt: EV/EBITDA is closer to 9-10x, which is roughly in line with HCA's own history and peer Tenet/UHS.
Where I part ways with the prior models: the synthesis calls it "fully_priced" at $387 fair value vs $404 spot (-4% to -9% overvaluation), and the narrative layer says fundamentals do 90% of the work. I think both are slightly too generous. The Q1 2026 deceleration is a real signal the models under-weight because they're averaging trailing quarters. If revenue growth is settling into 4-5% rather than 7%, and if labor cost pressure re-emerges (nursing wage inflation is not resolved, just quieter), then earnings growth compresses toward mid-single-digits and 14x P/E becomes appropriate rather than cheap. The market forces module's "asymmetric downside risk given leverage" is the right instinct — with negative equity and $46B debt, a 200bp reimbursement compression or a bad election cycle for hospital pricing has outsized equity impact. Insider activity is genuinely neutral (routine grants, one small sale, one gift) — no signal either way, and the models correctly refuse to over-read it.
The contrarian bull case worth taking seriously: HCA has consistently converted demographic tailwinds and scale advantages into shareholder returns for a decade, buybacks have compounded per-share metrics even as absolute growth moderates, and at 14.4x with 8-9% FCF yield you're being paid to wait. If Medicare Advantage penetration plateaus and commercial rate negotiations remain favorable, the current price is defensible. But that's a "hold what you own" thesis, not a "buy here" thesis. I agree with the synthesis direction (fully priced, slight premium) but I'd push the fair value lower than $388 — closer to $360-370 — because the Q1 print suggests the trajectory the DCF is extrapolating is optimistic by 100-200bps of revenue growth. This is a quality operator at a fair-to-slightly-rich price, not an opportunity. Waiting for either a growth reacceleration confirmation in Q2/Q3 2026 or a $340-360 entry point offers better risk/reward. Policy risk (surprise CMS rule, state-level pricing intervention, or a 2026 election-driven hospital-pricing narrative) is the tail that isn't priced.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that HCA is still compounding like a better business than the market is crediting, but the stock is no bargain because the balance sheet risk is real and already partly offsets the operating quality. Revenue has gone from $58.8B in 2021 to $75.6B in 2025, a 29% increase, while net income in 2025 reached $6.78B versus $5.76B in 2024 and $5.24B in 2023. The quarterly run-rate is still healthy: the March 2026 quarter delivered $19.11B of revenue and $1.62B of net income, up from $18.32B and $1.61B a year earlier. That is only modest profit growth in the latest quarter, but it came on top of already improved margins versus 2024. Across the last five reported quarters, margins have stabilized in an 8.6%-9.6% band after dipping as low as 7.3%-7.9% in late 2024. For a hospital operator, that recovery matters more than a headline multiple screen.
Cash generation is the core of the bull case and it is not cosmetic. In 2025, HCA produced $12.64B of operating cash flow and $7.69B of free cash flow after nearly $4.94B of capex. Against an $87.2B market cap, that is roughly an 8.8% FCF yield, and against the current price the 14.4x P/E does not look demanding for a business growing revenue high-single-digits and earnings double-digits over a multiyear period. The negative equity figure of -$2.77B looks ugly but is not, by itself, evidence of distress here; it more likely reflects years of buybacks and leverage layered onto a consistently profitable asset-heavy operator. The more relevant question is whether the debt load is serviceable through a less favorable reimbursement and labor cycle, and on that score the answer today is yes: $46.5B of debt is high, but the business is throwing off enough cash that it remains manageable absent an operational shock.
Where I part ways slightly with the “fully priced” framing is that the underlying operating trajectory is still improving, not flattening. Annual net margin expanded from 8.2% in 2024 to 9.0% in 2025, and the 2026 first quarter maintained 8.5% despite seasonality and a huge revenue base. That suggests 2024 was not the start of a deterioration story; it looks more like a temporary margin trough followed by recovery. If HCA can keep revenue around a $76B-$78B annualized level and hold net margins near 9%, the earnings power is closer to $7B than $6B, which makes a low-to-mid teens multiple reasonable. I do not see a cheap stock, but I do see a business whose quality is somewhat obscured by the leverage optics. My read is that fair value is modestly above the current quote if execution simply stays where it is.
The strongest case against that view is straightforward: this is a heavily indebted, low-liquidity hospital company with a current ratio below 1.0, only $1.04B of cash, and policy exposure the market can punish quickly. Net debt is effectively over $45B, and because equity is negative there is very little balance-sheet cushion if volumes soften, labor costs re-accelerate, or reimbursement turns against the sector. The latest quarterly profit growth was far weaker than revenue growth—$1.62B versus $1.61B year over year on $19.11B versus $18.32B—so one can argue the margin recovery has already plateaued. On that reading, 2025’s strong cash flow was a peak rather than a new base, and 14x earnings is not cheap for a mature operator with material regulatory and financing risk. That is a serious objection, and it is why I cannot call the stock outright undervalued in a big way.
What would change my mind either way is pretty specific. If the next few quarters show revenue still growing 5%-7% but net margin slipping back toward 7.5%-8.0%, then the market’s caution is right and $400-plus is too high for a levered hospital operator; I would move to overvalued with fair value below $350. Conversely, if HCA keeps quarterly revenue near or above $19B, sustains net income around $1.7B-$1.9B, and converts that into another year of $7B+ free cash flow while debt trends down even modestly, then the stock deserves something closer to 15x-16x earnings, which supports a value in the low-to-mid $400s.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a high-quality cash machine whose latest quarter is starting to cool. Full-year 2025 delivered $75.60B of revenue (+7.1% YoY) and $6.78B of net income (+17.7%), with free cash flow of $7.69B after $4.94B of capex—an 8.8% FCF yield on the $87B equity value. Margins expanded through most of 2025, peaking at 9.6% in Q4, and the multi-year earnings CAGR of 13.8% handsomely outran the 7.9% revenue CAGR. That is genuine operating leverage from the largest for-profit hospital footprint in the country. Yet the March 2026 quarter tells a different near-term story: revenue of $19.11B grew only 4.3% versus the year-earlier $18.32B, net income was essentially flat at $1.62B, and the margin slipped back to 8.5%. Sequential revenue also fell from Q4’s $19.51B. The deceleration flag in the secondary signals is already visible in the print, not merely a forecast.
The balance sheet is the structural overhang that keeps the multiple in check. Year-end 2025 shows $46.49B of debt against $1.04B of cash and negative equity of –$2.77B—an LBO legacy that leaves net leverage near 5.9× FCF and a current ratio of 0.97. At a 14.4× trailing P/E and 1.87× EV/revenue the stock is not optically expensive for mid-single-digit-to-high-single-digit growth, but it is no longer cheap once the most recent growth step-down is acknowledged. The valuation synthesis fair-value range of roughly $368–$388 is directionally right; at $404 the shares sit modestly above that anchor. Strong cash conversion and a sub-11% payout ratio give management room to keep returning capital, yet the equity account is already negative, so every dollar of buyback or dividend is effectively debt-financed in economic terms.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward: annualize the $7.69B FCF, apply even a conservative 11–12× multiple, and you clear $85–$92B of equity value—right around or above today’s capitalization—while the 28% FCF CAGR and 11% ROA demonstrate that HCA continues to sweat its assets harder than peers. A bull would also note that 2021’s outsized $6.96B net income set a tough comp, that 2025’s $6.78B already marks a clean recovery, and that demographic tailwinds plus ambulatory shift still support mid-single-digit volume growth for years. I weigh this less heavily because the Q1 2026 deceleration is real, labor and reimbursement remain exogenous risks, and a 5.9× net-debt-to-FCF stack leaves little margin for error if either volumes or rates soften. The “steady-compounder” narrative is durable precisely because it is boring; it does not justify paying a premium when the latest quarter already shows the growth rate rolling over.
I would reverse to a clear undervalued stance if the next two quarters re-accelerate revenue growth back above 6–7% YoY while holding net margins at or above 8.5%, or if net debt is reduced by at least $4–5B without starving FCF. A sustained break below ~$360 on no fundamental deterioration would also reset the risk-reward enough to get constructive.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The operating business is compounding cleanly: revenue grew from $58.75B (2021) to $75.60B (2025), a ~6.5% CAGR, and net income re-accelerated from a $5.24B trough (2023) back to $6.78B (2025). FCF quality is excellent — $7.69B in 2025 with OCF/NI of 1.66x and accruals at -6.9% of assets, both signs reported earnings are backed by cash rather than accrual mechanics. There are no mechanical earnings-quality red flags. Capital return discipline is a clear strength. Diluted share count fell from 328.8M to 239.5M (-7.6% CAGR), SBC is a trivial 0.5% of revenue, and buyback/SBC runs at ~1948% — this is a genuine net repurchaser, not optical dilution offset. The offset is leverage: net debt sits at roughly $45.5B against just $1.04B of liquid cash, and $4.89B of short-term debt exceeds cash on hand. Altman Z of 1.93 (grey) reflects that. Insider tape is neutral-negative in tone (11 sales, 0 open-market buys) but sizes are routine comp-driven dispositions, not a signal.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average cost/tenor of the ~$45B debt stack
- Payer mix and Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement exposure disclosed in the 10-K
- Segment-level margin trends (GM/OpM shown as 0 here suggests missing derived fields)
- Malpractice/self-insurance reserves and any contingent liabilities
- Capex composition (maintenance vs growth) supporting the $7.69B FCF figure
- Any material acquisitions or divestitures affecting the 2024-2025 growth acceleration
The e2e synthesis lands at a composite FV of $387.82 and a signal-adjusted FV of $367.88 against a $406.62 price — implied downside of about 5-10%. The DCF anchor at $387.82 is internally consistent with a mature, high-FCF hospital operator ($7.69B FCF) and doesn't look like a runaway method, so I take it seriously rather than discounting it. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted; the business quality is Strong, which supports a deserved value in that upper-$300s zone but does not stretch it into the $400s.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- 2025 guidance on same-facility admissions and payer mix
- labor cost run-rate and contract labor as % of salaries
- any updates on state supplemental payment programs and Medicaid DPP exposure
- pace and price of remaining buyback authorization
The macro tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs), so a beta-1.13 defensive-ish operator like HCA is not being mauled by the market. But the pressure on this specific name is not coming from the tape - it is coming from the story. The active narrative is a 'steady-compounder' with minimal intensity and low cult coefficient, meaning there is almost no bid from story-chasers and no fan base to defend the stock when headlines turn. That leaves HCA naked to policy headlines, and the July 30 disclosure of a $400M policy-driven headwind is exactly the kind of item this cohort cannot rebut with a growth story. Hospital operators are living under a persistent ACA/reimbursement/labor-cost narrative that has no clean resolution, and analyst tone across the group has drifted cautious. The July 28 pop was relief, not conviction - HCA rallied because peer Tenet guided better and feared ACA outcomes did not materialize, which is a low-quality tailwind that reverses on the next headline (as it did two days later). Net: modest, persistent headwind. Not a de-rating event, but a tape where sellers press harder than buyers on any policy print, and there is no narrative cushion underneath.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Any concrete detail on the $400M policy headwind - source, timeline, whether it recurs
- Analyst target revisions in the two weeks after the Q2 print (cuts would confirm the headwind)
- Hospital-sector rotation flows vs managed care and pharma - is money leaving the subsector
- ACA subsidy extension headlines and CMS reimbursement updates into year-end
- Whether the narrative intensity ticks up (bad) or stays minimal (neutral) as election-cycle healthcare rhetoric builds
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, HCA was $406.61. We expect it to be $407.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $345.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.