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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Haleon Plc - (HLN) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +1 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 48 · Value -37 · Sentiment -4 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $9.48 vs $10.01 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Haleon Plc -
HLN NYSEHaleon Plc - ADR represents an American Depositary Receipt for Haleon Plc, a company known for its focus on consumer healthcare products. ADRs are traded on U.S. stock exchanges and allow American investors to invest in non-U.S. companies without dealing with foreign transactions. Haleon Plc specializes in providing health-related products across various categories, including oral health, pain relief, vitamins, minerals, and supplements, as well as digestive health and other wellness products. The company is a significant player in the global consumer healthcare market, serving regions worldwide. By offering solutions that cater directly to consumer health needs, Haleon's products find utilization in countless households, impacting consumer health and wellness sectors globally. As a spin-off from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Haleon continues its legacy of developing solutions aimed at improving everyday health, holding an important role within the healthcare industry due to its broad range of trusted brands and deep industry expertise.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.50
Total Equity: $22.49B
Shares: 4,513,000,000
Total Debt: $11.75B
Cash: $1.81B
EBITDA: $3.78B
Total Debt: $11.75B
Cash: $1.81B
Revenue: $15.05B
Revenue: $15.05B
Revenue: $15.05B
Total Equity: $22.49B
Tax Rate: 21.9%
Equity: $22.49B
Total Debt: $11.75B
Cash: $1.81B
Current Liabilities: $6.73B
Long-Term Debt: $10.61B
Total Debt: $11.75B
Total Equity: $22.49B
Shares: 4,513,000,000
Shares: 4,513,000,000
CapEx: -$439.36M
Shares: 4,513,000,000
Stock Price: $10.00
Net Income: $2.27B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.0B | $14.8B | $15.4B | $15.3B | $15.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.9B | $5.8B | $6.2B | $6.0B | $5.4B |
| Gross Profit | $8.1B | $9.0B | $9.2B | $9.3B | $9.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $5.9B | $6.5B | $6.5B | $6.3B | $6.4B |
| Operating Income | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.3B |
| Net Income | $1.9B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| EBITDA | — | — | $3.1B | $3.5B | $3.8B |
| EPS | $0.41 | $0.31 | $0.31 | $0.43 | $0.51 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.41 | $0.31 | $0.31 | $0.43 | $0.50 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $933.3M | $933.3M | $1.4B | $3.1B | $1.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.5B | $5.5B | $6.6B | $7.8B | $6.2B |
| Total Assets | $47.5B | $47.5B | $46.5B | $46.8B | $44.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $6.0B | $6.0B | $6.3B | $7.9B | $6.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | $13.6B | $13.6B | $12.0B | $11.8B | $10.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $25.0B | $25.0B | $23.6B | $24.7B | $22.0B |
| Total Equity | $22.5B | $22.5B | $22.8B | $22.1B | $22.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $36.5B | $36.5B | $37.5B | $37.2B | $38.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.9B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$311.1M | -$414.8M | -$319.3M | -$341.1M | -$439.4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | -$96.9M | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $10.9M | $12.9B | -$754.6M | $889.6M | -$1.8B |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +13.8% | +4.1% | -0.6% | -1.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +10.5% | +2.6% | +1.1% | +3.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | +11.4% | +9.4% | +10.5% | +9.3% |
| Net Income Growth | -23.7% | -1.0% | +37.5% | +15.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | +9.8% | +9.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:02pm (1d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-25 | $0.12 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.11 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-24 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 17:21The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw tape first: revenue has essentially flatlined at ~$15B for four years running ($14.82B in 2022 → $15.05B in 2025, with 2023 and 2024 actually higher), while operating income marched from $2.24B to $3.29B and net income from $1.45B to $2.27B. That's the entire story — this is a cost-out and mix-shift play, not a growth story. Operating margin expanded ~470bps over four years (17.0% → 21.9%), and gross margin drifted up ~140bps to 64.2%. FCF of $3.15B on a $43.98B market cap is a 7.2% FCF yield, which is genuinely attractive for a defensive with pricing power — but the 40x reported P/E is misleading because the E is depressed by amortization of intangibles from the GSK carve-out; on FCF, this trades closer to ~14x, which is where the "fair value" conclusion actually lives.
The prior models are directionally right but sloppy on the multiple. The Synthesis says fair value $9.14–9.48 vs $10.01 and calls it fair — fine, but leaning on a 40x P/E anchor while the Pre-Flight thesis parrots the same 40x figure suggests neither cross-checked against the ~$3.15B FCF or EV/EBITDA of 26.6x (which is rich for a -1.2% revenue CAGR business, defensive or not). Market Forces gets the tension right — margin expansion inside a shrinking topline is not indefinitely repeatable — but then contradicts itself by citing "19x earnings" when the canonical file says 40x. Someone's using adjusted earnings; the reader isn't told. The Narrative layer is the most honest piece: this is a functional, anchored story with minimal upside optionality. No re-rating catalyst is visible.
The contrarian case cuts both ways and neither is compelling. Bull contrarian: post-separation deleveraging ($11.75B debt / $22.49B equity, D/E 0.52) plus continued margin creep toward 23-24% operating could deliver ~$3.5B FCF within two years; at a 6% FCF yield you'd underwrite $58B equity, ~30% upside. Bear contrarian: revenue has now declined YoY (-1.8% recent, -0.5% from 2023 peak of $15.42B) in a category — consumer healthcare — where Kenvue, Reckitt, and P&G Health are all growing low-to-mid single digits. That's share loss, not category weakness, and margin expansion inside share loss is a classic late-cycle harvest tell. ROIC of 7.9% against a likely 8-9% WACC means this isn't creating economic value on incremental capital — the returns you see are from cost discipline on a fixed installed base. Current ratio of 0.92 is tight for a CPG business and constrains buyback aggression.
I partial-agree with the fair-value synthesis but for different reasons than the models cite. The composite $9.14–9.48 vs $10 is within noise; the real question is whether margin expansion has 200bps more to run (bull) or is peaking here (bear). Given -1.8% revenue YoY with peers growing, I lean toward peak-ish margins and would anchor fair value at $9.00–9.50, with the 1.95% dividend yield doing most of the total return work. Nothing here says "buy" and nothing says "sell" — it's a bond substitute with mild equity risk, appropriate only if you specifically want defensive consumer healthcare exposure and have no better income alternative. The models converged on "fair" for weak reasons; I arrive at "fair-to-slightly-rich" for stronger ones. Where the data is thin: no quarterly trajectory was provided, so I can't verify whether Q4 2025 stabilized revenue or accelerated the decline — that's the single most important missing datum, and any conviction call requires it.
GPT Reading
At $10, Haleon looks slightly overvalued for what is, in the numbers, a very good but very slow business. The core fact pattern is hard to ignore: revenue has gone from $15.42B in 2023 to $15.33B in 2024 to $15.05B in 2025, a two-year decline of about 2.4%, while the stock still carries a 6.1x sales multiple and 26.6x EV/EBITDA. That is a rich valuation for shrinking top line. What has improved materially is profitability: gross profit rose from $9.21B in 2023 to $9.66B in 2025 despite lower revenue, pushing gross margin to 64.2%, and operating income climbed from $2.72B to $3.29B, taking operating margin from 17.7% to 21.9%. Net income improved from $1.43B to $2.27B over the same span. So the business is executing, but almost all of the equity story is margin extraction and cash harvesting, not growth.
That distinction matters because the market is paying as though the margin gains are both durable and still underappreciated. On 2025 numbers, the stock is around 40x earnings and about 19x free cash flow if I use the stated $43.98B market cap against $2.27B of net income and $3.15B of FCF. For a defensive consumer-health portfolio with flat-to-down sales, those are not cheap “stability” multiples; they are premium quality multiples. The balance sheet is manageable rather than pristine: $11.75B of debt against $1.81B of cash leaves net debt near $9.9B, and the current ratio at 0.92 says this is not an overcapitalized fortress. None of that is alarming given $3.59B in operating cash flow, but it limits how much further financial engineering can drive per-share value. If revenues are now basically ex-growth, then most of the upside must come from another leg of margin expansion from already healthy levels, and I think the market is too comfortable underwriting that.
The strongest part of the bull case is that Haleon is exactly the sort of business that deserves a premium: branded OTC and oral care franchises, low cyclicality, gross margins above 64%, operating cash flow conversion that supports $3.15B of annual free cash flow on just $439M of capex, and a clear upward trend in profitability since 2022. On the annual series, operating income has increased every year from $2.24B in 2021 to $3.29B in 2025, while net margin expanded from 11.2% in 2021 to 15.1% in 2025. A smart bull would also say revenue “decline” here is mild enough to be mix- and FX-distorted noise rather than franchise decay, and that a 1.95% dividend yield plus deleveraging plus steady cash generation can still produce acceptable shareholder returns even without real growth. If management can keep lifting margins 50-100 bps a year, today’s valuation may not compress much.
I weigh that evidence differently because valuation leaves too little room for a mature-asset outcome. A company with revenue CAGR of negative 1.2% and recent revenue down 1.8% should not need much to disappoint when it trades above 6x sales and above 26x EBITDA. The contradiction in the data is that returns on capital are good but not exceptional enough to justify that premium: ROIC is 7.9% and ROE 10.1%, solid but hardly elite. If this were a true compounder, I would expect either cleaner organic growth or much higher capital returns. Instead, Haleon looks like a high-quality consumer-health carveout that has already harvested the easiest margin opportunities post-spin. That can still be a fine business and a mediocre stock.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If Haleon can return to real top-line growth while holding the new margin structure—say revenue back above $15.5B with operating income above $3.4B and free cash flow sustained above $3.2B—then the premium multiple becomes more defensible because the story shifts from “harvester” to “compounder.” I would also get more constructive if net debt falls meaningfully, toward $8B or below, without sacrificing dividends or investment, because that would improve the equity optionality. On the other hand, if revenue stays around $15B or slips further while margins stall near 22%, I think fair value is below the current price, more in the $8.50-$9.25 range.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a margin-expansion harvest, not a growth compounder. Haleon’<|eos|>
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Haleon shows the profile of a well-run mature earner. Revenue has been essentially flat around 15B since 2022 (15.05B in 2025 vs 14.82B in 2022), but operating margin has expanded meaningfully from 16.8% to 21.9% and gross margin has climbed to 64.2%, driving net income from 1.45B to 2.27B and FCF from 2.40B to 3.15B. That is genuine operating leverage on a stable top line, consistent with brand-led consumer health economics.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity ladder and refinancing schedule for the ~10B net debt
- Whether margin expansion is structural (mix, GSK/Pfizer separation synergies) or driven by one-off cost actions
- Organic volume vs price growth split behind flat reported revenue
- FX impact on 2025 revenue given the modest decline
- Any divestitures affecting the revenue comparability across 2023-2025
The three valuation lenses cluster tightly around today's price: DCF $10.25, anchored P/E $11.01, EPV floor $6.39, composite $9.48, signal-adjusted $9.14. Price at $10.01 implies -6% to -9% to fair value - essentially fair, leaning slightly rich. The business is genuinely high-quality (clean earnings, 500bps margin expansion, buybacks) which supports a full multiple, but the market already knows this: a consumer health pure-play trading at a mid-teens forward multiple is priced as a steady compounder, not a bargain. The bull case (pricing power, dividend, defensive cash flows) is in the tape; the bear case (flat top line, ~10B net debt, private-label pressure) is what caps the multiple. Nothing in the setup screams mispricing in either direction. To make this interesting on valuation alone, I want the price meaningfully below the EPV floor cluster - a drawdown to the high-$8s would offer real margin of safety against the leverage risk and stagnant revenue. At $10, you are paying for the business you are getting.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic revenue growth trajectory in next print - is it inflecting above low-single-digits
- Net debt paydown pace and any refinancing terms
- Guidance on operating margin - can the 500bps trajectory continue or is it plateauing
- Any FX or one-off adjustments distorting reported earnings quality
Haleon sits in the sentiment dead zone: a steady-compounder narrative running at minimal intensity, no cult following, and no active catalyst pulling flows in or out. The bull case is 'reliable cash and dividends'; the bear case is 'slow-motion margin compression'. Neither is loud enough to move the tape on its own, and with a 0.25 beta the risk-on regime barely reaches this name - HLN is not the vehicle traders reach for when they want risk. The July 3.3% pop with no news attached hints at passive rotation into defensive consumer healthcare rather than any narrative ignition. Analyst tone and news flow are quiet. Macro is a mild crosswind: 4.69% 10y and a 25.7 market PE create a modest headwind for bond-proxy dividend names, but the low beta and staples-adjacent profile mute it. The stock has meaningfully outperformed on a 3-year basis (+5.8pp) while the near-term CAGR is flat - consistent with a name that gets bought in stress and forgotten in rallies. Net: the pressure vector is close to zero, with a very slight defensive tilt if the tape wobbles from here.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the 10y breaks higher toward 5% - would sharpen the dividend-proxy headwind
- Any sector rotation signal into consumer defensives if VIX pushes above 18-20
- Analyst target revisions post next print - a downgrade cycle would break the quiet-is-good dynamic
- Private label / e-commerce commentary in staples peers that could activate the bear narrative
Self-care demand is structurally supported: aging populations, healthcare-system cost shifting toward OTC, and pharmacist-led recommendation in emerging markets. That backdrop is steady rather than cyclical, which suits a portfolio of habitual, low-ticket purchases. The offsets are consumer trade-down in discretionary wellness (vitamins, not analgesics), retailer own-label expansion, and a macro backdrop with elevated long rates that matters to a levered balance sheet more than to demand. Nothing in the world read implies contraction of the underlying earnings power; it implies a ceiling of mid-single-digit organic growth with earnings growing faster while cost programs and deleveraging run.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, HLN was $10.00. We expect it to be $9.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $8.50. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.