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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Orix Corporation (IX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -7 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 40 · Value -46 · Sentiment -10 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $22.26 vs $38.49 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Orix Corporation
IX NYSEOrix Corporation Sponsored ADR represents the American Depositary Receipts of Orix Corporation, a diversified financial services company based in Japan. The primary function of these ADRs is to provide US investors with a convenient way to invest in Orix Corporation without having to directly purchase shares through a foreign exchange. Orix Corporation itself is known for its wide-ranging operations across numerous sectors including leasing, real estate, insurance, banking, and retail financial services. The company is also involved in venture capital, asset management, and both renewable and conventional energy projects. Orix's extensive services influence various industries and contribute significantly to the global financial market landscape. The ADRs offer investors exposure to the conglomerate's broad business portfolio, which is integral to its strategy of achieving sustained growth and stability in both domestic and international markets. Listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Orix Corporation Sponsored ADR enables investors to participate in the company's financial performance within a regulatory framework familiar to US market participants.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.51
Total Equity: $29.07B
Shares: 1,119,842,263
Total Debt: $41.10B
Cash: $8.39B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $41.10B
Cash: $8.39B
Revenue: $20.95B
Revenue: $20.95B
Revenue: $20.95B
Total Equity: $29.07B
Tax Rate: 33.7%
Equity: $29.07B
Total Debt: $41.10B
Cash: $8.39B
Current Liabilities: N/A
Long-Term Debt: $37.50B
Total Debt: $41.10B
Total Equity: $29.07B
Shares: 1,119,842,263
Shares: 1,119,842,263
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 1,119,842,263
Stock Price: $38.49
Net Income: $2.81B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:17pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.9B | $16.8B | $17.7B | $18.1B | $21.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $7.5B | $7.9B | $8.9B | $9.0B | $10.1B |
| Operating Income | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.1B | $2.9B |
| Net Income | $2.0B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.8B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $8.29 | $7.74 | $9.39 | $1.94 | $2.52 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.28 | $7.73 | $9.37 | $1.93 | $2.51 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 9:15am (8d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.0B | $7.7B | $6.5B | $7.6B | $8.4B |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Assets | $89.7B | $96.0B | $102.6B | $106.0B | $113.2B |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | — | — | — |
| Long-Term Debt | $27.8B | $32.8B | $35.4B | $36.0B | $37.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $68.5B | $74.4B | $77.3B | $79.8B | $84.1B |
| Total Equity | $21.2B | $21.6B | $25.3B | $26.2B | $29.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $18.3B | $19.1B | $20.5B | $21.1B | $22.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 9:15am (8d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $6.9B | $5.7B | $7.8B | $8.2B | $8.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$550.6M | -$1.3B | -$267.1M | -$565.0M | -$811.2M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $13.9B | $18.9B | $15.1B | $17.7B | $15.6B |
| Dividends Paid | -$624.8M | -$668.2M | -$628.0M | -$852.4M | -$1.1B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$314.3M | -$327.3M | -$314.3M | -$336.4M | -$943.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $76.9M | $1.7B | -$1.1B | $859.2M | $811.7M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:17pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +5.8% | +5.6% | +2.1% | +15.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +3.9% | +14.9% | -8.0% | +37.5% |
| Net Income Growth | -12.5% | +26.8% | +1.6% | +27.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:17pm (1d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2008-03-27 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2007-03-28 | $0.11 | — | — | — |
| 2005-03-29 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2004-03-29 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2003-03-27 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2002-03-26 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 15:45The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The synthesis verdict — "overvalued, fair value $22-23 vs $38.49" — deserves immediate pushback. That composite is anchoring on a DCF for a diversified financial conglomerate whose value is genuinely sum-of-parts (leasing book, insurance float, real estate marks, PE fund stakes, renewables). DCF-ing Orix is roughly as informative as DCF-ing Berkshire; you get a false-precision number that ignores balance sheet optionality. The market-forces "neutral" and narrative "quiet-quality anchored" reads are closer to reality. At 15.3x earnings, 1.48x book, 9.7% ROE, and a 4% yield with 38% payout, Orix is priced like a mid-tier global financial — not obviously cheap, not obviously rich. The synthesis's -39% gap is almost certainly a model artifact.
The trajectory is better than "mature earner" suggests. Revenue $15.85B → $20.95B over four years is a 7.2% CAGR, and the FY26 print of $20.95B rev / $2.81B NI represents 15.9% YoY revenue growth and 27% earnings growth — well above the 5-year averages. Operating margin expanded from 12.0% (FY22) to 13.7% (FY26). Net margin sits at 13.4%. ROE at 9.7% is unspectacular but improving, and 1.48x book with a 9.7% ROE implies the market is pricing roughly cost-of-equity returns — reasonable, not exuberant. The debt/equity of 1.41x looks scary in isolation but is low for a financial conglomerate with a leasing/insurance/banking mix; peers routinely run 3-5x. Operating CF of $8.61B against a $41.8B market cap is a 20% OCF yield, which is the number that actually matters for a capital-recycling conglomerate.
The contrarian case against my own read: (1) FY26 growth may be JPY-weakness-flattered — a weak yen inflates USD-reported revenue, and BOJ normalization would reverse this both mechanically and by compressing net interest margins on the leasing/banking book. (2) ROIC of 3.1% is genuinely poor and signals that capital allocation across the conglomerate sprawl isn't creating much economic value — the earnings growth may be balance-sheet expansion rather than return improvement. (3) The insider "buying" is ten J-Other filings on a single day (2026-06-23) — this looks like a scheduled corporate/ADR mechanical filing, not conviction insider accumulation. The secondary signal is misleading. (4) Japanese financials have chronically failed to close valuation gaps for two decades; "quietly compounding" often means quietly stagnating in USD terms.
Where I land: the synthesis is directionally wrong. Fair value is not $22 — that would imply 8.7x earnings and 0.85x book for a company growing earnings 13.7% CAGR with an improving margin profile and 4% yield. A more defensible fair value band is $35-45, anchored on 1.3-1.7x book and 14-17x earnings, which brackets the current $38.49. The stock is roughly fairly valued, with modest upside if BOJ normalization proves benign (rising rates help the leasing/insurance book more than they hurt) and downside if yen strength reverses the reported growth or if credit cycle turns. I dissent from the "overvalued -39%" call but I'm not a table-pounding bull either — this is a hold/starter-yield position, not a mispricing. Conviction on the dissent is moderate-high because the composite fair value is clearly using the wrong tool for a conglomerate; conviction on direction is moderate because JPY translation and BOJ risk are real unknowns.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers look better than the “overvalued” label suggests. Orix has grown revenue from $15.85B in FY2022 to $20.95B in FY2026, an 8.8% CAGR, while net income rose from $1.96B to $2.81B despite a dip in FY2023. The latest year was especially strong: revenue up 15.9% and net income up 27.2% year over year, with operating income climbing from $2.09B to $2.87B. That is not the profile of a no-growth financial utility. At $41.81B market cap, the stock trades at about 14.9x FY2026 earnings and 1.48x book on a 9.7% ROE. For a diversified financial with visible earnings power, a 4.05% dividend yield, and a 38% payout ratio, that multiple is not obviously stretched. If anything, the market is paying a reasonable price for a business that has resumed compounding after a soft patch.
What stands out is the balance between profitability and leverage. On the good side, net margin of 13.4% and operating margin of 13.7% are healthy for a conglomerated financial platform, and operating cash flow of $8.61B versus $2.81B of net income suggests earnings are backed by substantial cash generation. On the cautionary side, the capital structure is meaningful: $41.10B of debt against $29.07B of equity, or 1.41x debt-to-equity, with only $8.39B of cash. That leverage is not unusual for this type of institution, but it means you should not value Orix on a simple industrial-style DCF and call it a day. The very low 3.1% ROIC is a warning that much of the asset base is inherently low-spread, balance-sheet-intensive business. Still, the more relevant metric here is ROE, and a near-10% ROE combined with sub-40% payout leaves room for continued dividends and buybacks without heroic assumptions.
The biggest mismatch in the prior work is the idea that $38.49 implies an excessive growth premium. The stock is not priced like a growth darling: 2.06x sales and 15.3x earnings for a diversified financial with improving earnings, a solid yield, and book value support is closer to “fair-to-modestly-cheap” than “39% overvalued.” If this were a 6%-7% ROE lender with flat earnings, I would agree that 1.5x book is too rich. But with earnings CAGR of 13.7% over the period and a strong latest-year step-up in profit, the market is not being irrational in paying above book. The classification as a mature earner is right; the conclusion that maturity equals overvaluation is not. My read is that the stock is being valued as a decent-quality compounder in an unloved category, not as a speculative rerating story.
The best bear case is straightforward: Orix is still a leveraged financial conglomerate whose complexity can hide mediocre underlying returns. A 9.7% ROE is good, not great, and 1.48x book can become expensive quickly if credit costs rise, real estate values soften, or BOJ normalization pressures funding economics. The 15x P/E also loses appeal if the FY2026 earnings jump proves cyclical rather than durable. The low ROA of 2.5% and ROIC of 3.1% support the argument that this is a spread business vulnerable to macro headwinds, and the debt load means small operating disappointments can matter. I take that seriously, but I weigh it differently because the valuation already embeds “mature, levered, Japanese financial” skepticism; it does not assume 15%-plus growth persists for years. The dividend yield north of 4% and payout ratio below 40% give investors paid patience while management proves whether the recent acceleration is real.
What would change my mind is not another abstract sum-of-parts argument but evidence in the next year that FY2026 was a peak. If net income slips back toward the FY2024-FY2025 range of $2.18B-$2.21B, or ROE falls materially below 9%, then 1.5x book would look too generous and I would move bearish quickly. Likewise, if operating cash flow weakens sharply from $8.61B while leverage stays elevated, the quality case breaks. Conversely, if Orix can sustain net income above $2.8B, keep payout discipline, and show book value compounding without a hit to credit quality, I would be comfortable underwriting a value in the low-to-mid $40s rather than the low $20s implied by the bearish model.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a financial conglomerate that is quietly accelerating, not stagnating. Revenue climbed from $15.85B in FY2022 to $20.95B in FY2026, an 8.8% CAGR that stepped up sharply in the latest year (+15.9% YoY). Net income followed a steeper path—from $1.96B to $2.81B, a 13.7% CAGR with a 27% jump in the most recent period—while operating income hit $2.87B and net margin held at 13.4%. Operating cash flow of $8.61B dwarfs reported earnings, underscoring genuine cash conversion rather than accounting noise. At $38.49 and a $41.8B market cap the stock screens at 15.3x earnings, 1.48x book and a 4.05% dividend yield on a 38% payout; those multiples are ordinary for mid-teens earnings growth and a sub-10% ROE, not a frothy premium. Debt of $41.1B against $29.1B equity and only $8.4B cash keeps leverage elevated (D/E 1.41), and the 3.1% ROIC is the clearest quantitative red flag—capital is being deployed at thin incremental returns. Still, the growth inflection and cash generation contradict any narrative of a pure yield-trap Japanese mature earner; the market is paying a fair price for improving earnings power, not an excessive one.
The valuation synthesis that pins fair value near $22–23 and labels the name 39% overvalued collides with the income statement and cash-flow statement. A 15x multiple on $2.81B of net income already reconciles to the current capitalization; applying a deeper discount implies the model is either capitalizing a much lower terminal growth rate or treating the balance-sheet leverage as pure equity risk rather than the normal funding structure of a leasing-and-finance conglomerate. The 65% “premium to DCF” cited in the bear narrative therefore looks more like model misspecification than market exuberance. Narrative intensity is minimal and the cult coefficient is low, so there is little story premium to deflate. Secondary signals—net insider buying, good revenue confidence, and an 8–14% multi-year growth tape—further undercut the overvalued call.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and quantitative. ROIC at 3.1% and ROA at 2.5% show that the firm is not creating economic profit on the capital it deploys; a smart opponent will argue that 15x earnings is already generous for a low-return, leveraged Japanese conglomerate facing BOJ normalization and macro headwinds. Debt roughly equal to market cap leaves little equity cushion if asset quality or interest coverage deteriorates, and the stock sits below sector benchmarks. If the recent 16% revenue and 27% earnings spikes prove one-off rather than a new run-rate, the multiple has nowhere to expand and the 4% yield becomes the sole support. Those points are real; they simply do not justify collapsing intrinsic value to the low-$20s when cash earnings and the dividend are both rising.
I would reverse to a clear overvalued stance if FY2027 revenue growth falls back below 5% and net income stalls under $2.5B, or if ROIC remains stuck near 3% while net debt rises. Conversely, sustained double-digit earnings growth with ROE pushing through 12% and any visible deleveraging would push me to a higher-conviction undervalued call above $45.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Orix is a mature, diversified financial services group compounding revenue from $15.85B (2022) to $20.95B (2026), with operating margin steady in the 11-14% band and net income rising from $1.96B to $2.81B. Free cash flow is robust and consistent at $5.7B-$8.6B annually, and OCF/NI at 3.44x plus negative accruals (-5.2% of assets) point to high earnings quality — reported profits are backed by cash, atypical of a firm cooking books. The two flags are structural to financials, not necessarily forensic. Altman Z of 0.84 flags 'distress' but the Z-score is notoriously unreliable for financial conglomerates (leasing, banking, insurance, PE) whose business model IS leverage; net debt of -$32.7B against $8.4B liquid cash and $8.6B FCF is normal for this model. The 'diluted share CAGR 46.8%' driven by a jump from 232M to 1.14B between 2025 and 2026 almost certainly reflects a stock split (Orix executed a 1-for-5 or similar split in that window) rather than genuine dilution — per-share economics are not being destroyed at that rate given net income also rose. Insider activity is directionally positive but trivial in size ($905 total); the mass J-Other grants on 2026-06-23 look like routine board compensation awards. Overall a durable, cash-generative, well-run diversified financier.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Confirm whether the 2025-to-2026 diluted share jump from 232M to 1.14B reflects a stock split versus genuine issuance
- Segment mix (leasing, banking, insurance, PE, real estate, energy) and concentration of earnings
- Funding profile: maturity ladder, cost of debt, deposit base, and reliance on wholesale funding
- Credit quality metrics in the leasing and lending books (NPL ratios, provisions)
- Nature of the 2026-06-23 J-Other insider transactions (likely director share awards)
- Dividend and buyback history on a true per-share basis
The e2e composite pegs fair value at $22.26 and the signal-adjusted FV at $23.33, implying roughly -39% downside from the $38.50 price. That said, the FV here leans on an EPV-floor method, which for a diversified Japanese financial conglomerate with leasing, insurance, real estate, and renewables likely understates deserved value — EPV floors typically miss growth optionality and the book/embedded value of insurance and PE assets. Peers and simple P/B/P/E checks on Japanese financials generally put Orix in a reasonable, not stretched, zone. So the true gap is probably narrower than -39%, but the direction is clear: the price sits above a defensible deserved value. Company-quality is Solid (40), which lifts deserved value modestly but does not close the gap. Earnings quality is clean, so no additional haircut. Net: this reads as modestly rich rather than a screaming short — you are paying full price for a decent, diversified compounder with limited near-term catalyst to re-rate higher.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment-level ROE and embedded value in insurance and PE investments
- Latest book value per share and P/B vs Japanese financial peers
- Whether the 46.8% share CAGR is a split (confirms quality lens read) or real dilution
- Dividend and buyback policy — capital return is the main mechanism to close any SOTP discount
- FX assumptions in the ADR price vs underlying JPY listing
IX is a textbook quiet-quality ADR with minimal narrative intensity and low cult coefficient — meaning the market tape barely notices this name in either direction. With a beta of 0.72, the modestly risk-on regime (VIX 15.1, S&P near highs) offers only a faint tailwind, and the low-volatility profile means macro cross-currents get muted rather than amplified. There is no active story pulling capital in and no breaking narrative pushing it out. Recent 4% swings happened on zero identifiable news, which itself signals a name moving on flow and rotation rather than conviction. Rates at 4.69% and a stretched market PE of 25.7 are a mild headwind for a financial conglomerate carrying leverage, but Orix's diversified cash generation dampens that exposure versus pure-play lenders. Analyst tone is quiet, target revisions are absent from the brief, and Western coverage is thin — the foreignness-as-narrative bear thesis has some truth, but it cuts both ways: no story to sell off, no story to chase. Momentum is quietly positive (15.9% recent vs 8.8% long-term, deleveraging balance sheet), which provides a soft technical tailwind. Net: forces roughly cancel. This is a name where sentiment is a non-event, and price action will be dictated by fundamentals and flows, not narrative pressure.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any pickup in Western analyst initiations or target revisions that could awaken the SOTP-discount narrative
- Yen and JGB curve moves that would shift the Japan financials rotation trade
- Sector rotation flows into or out of Japanese ADRs (EWJ, DXJ) as a proxy for sponsorship
- Any management action (buyback, spin, dividend hike) that could inject a narrative into a currently story-less name
Two world-level forces dominate. First, the end of Japanese zero rates: for a domestic insurer/lessor/bank hybrid, rising reinvestment yields are a durable margin tailwind that took a decade to arrive and will take years to fully flow through — this is the structural case. Second, higher global long rates (10y 4.69%) with a mildly positive curve cut the other way on ORIX's asset-monetization and US credit/real-asset side, slowing exits and pressuring marks. Net: the Japanese domestic engine improves while the global capital-recycling engine faces friction, which is exactly why growth should stay positive but not accelerate. Renewables and infrastructure concessions add a real, if slow-burning, capex-backed growth vector.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, IX was $38.49. We expect it to be $35.80 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $30.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.